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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s local By-Election: The detailed results
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s local By-Election: The detailed results
Petersfield, Bell Hill on East Hampshire (Conservative Defence)
Result: Conservative 190 (42% -15%), UKIP 110 (24%), Labour 75 (17% -2%), Liberal Democrats 74 (16% -8%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 80 (18%) on a swing of 20% from Conservative to United Kingdom Independence Party
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/26585499
There's no getting away from it, it's been a bad run of polls for Labour.
Despite my joining in with the taunting of PBTories, I've secretly been worried about Labour for a while. I don't think they've been doing well since Xmas -- after they finally looked to be defining themselves, and defining why people should vote Labour, towards the end of last year, they've let things completely drift again. I still maintain their newfound focus on "budget discipline" is a complete mistake -- even leaving aside that it rules out doing ANYTHING that a Labour government should do, it's completely woeful political strategy. Having Ed Balls say all the time things like "we'll spend properly this time, honest! We'll be good, we'll even create a surplus!" just stinks of the lady doth protest too much -- it's the equivalent of an ex-boyfriend or girlfriend who you dumped for being too clingy bombarding you with texts begging to get back together and promising that this time they'll be more normal and give you your space. It doesn't reassure you, it just reminds you of why you dumped them in the first place.
I still think the next election is in Labour's hands, but it's starting to look like they might let it slip away. They need to come up with a coherent message of what the Labour Party is for, and fast -- and "we won't be as bad as the Tories" or "we'll do some technocratic reorganisation of public services" will absolutely NOT suffice.
Lab Maj 6/4 (Hills)
Con Maj 11/4
LibLab coalition 4/1 (PP)
LibCon coalition 5/1(Hills)
other 5/1
You're screwed then, mate, 'cos that's all that Labour under its present guise will offer.
However, I'm hoping if they go behind in the polls, it might finally be the wake-up call they need that this ultra-safe New Labour defensive style isn't even going to succeed in getting them elected, so they may as well be radical.
What can Milliband do for me, a Public Sector, union member, middle aged ,married with kids who are just about to set off to Uni, or in the last years of school, with a joint income (at the minute!) of around 34 grand a year gross.
I just about know what to expect from Cameron, but what is Milliband's proposal?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGUNf5SKnfg
The 'we'll make lots of cuts too, but do it better' line cannot sit alongside opposing every cut in opposition, or proposing more spending (health workers this week), or spending the Bankers Bonus tax fifteen times over, or whatever multiple it's reached now.
Ironically, it turned out to be Labour who didn't have an economic Plan B once the recovery became established.
As long as the economy keeps improving and the Tories don't blow it by banging on about the EU, or foreign policy in general, then I don't see Labour ending up with a majority.
If anything Labour need to play it even more safe than they are. The reason Blair won was that he build a coalition that included the very wealthy, the wealthy, the poor and a lot of middle England. Labour are the only party in Britain that can build a coalition like that but it means doing away with tax and spend all over again which neither of the Eds want to do. If Labour embraced business and the City like Blair they would win. Their natural supporters have nowhere else to go now that the Lib Dems are allied with the Tories and enough voters in marginals could be convinced that Labour won't make the horses bolt this time.
Instead the Eds have set down a path of pissing off business groups, pissing off the low paid by supporting benefit increases over the tax threshold rises, pissing off wealthy backers, pissing off the unions and allying themselves with countries who loathe our most successful industry, which, like it or not, is banking and finance.
Ed is trying to walk the line of keeping the left of his party happy and also keeping the middle happy, but will end up doing neither. Dave has done the same in the past and may go into the election on a similar platform, but with an improving economy and more people in work, the government will get the benefit of the doubt from the centrist voters.
The only policy I can think of that will win votes is to cancel HS2 and pledge to spend the money on renationalising the railways.
But no-one takes those policies seriously, because they're so obviously cr@p. Which leaves us with the one thing he relies on, and the only thing that is to his advantage: he is not the Tories.
Expect a really nasty 2015 election campaign from the Labour Party.
Ed Miliband = Jade D
Second, I agree with the general tenor of the comments here on Labour. Their problem is, you can only do Blairism once, and they've done it. Just as the Tories are divided by Europe (an output of the class division within their support), so Labour's voters are divided by educational level - with little community of interest between a man like Bob Crow (a blue-collar social conservative) and a typical graduate female teacher or social worker.
Only FPTP is keeping these two obsolescent political machines in being.
http://t.co/XRvaZJDnTL
The railways model in this country is absolutely broken, I say that as a commuter and as someone who needs to fly to Liverpool on a fairly regular basis, and if Labour want to do something radical and anti-profit/business there is a lot of political capital in the railways. Especially since the government subsidise it so heavily. The risk is all in public hands and the profits are all in private hands, surely Labour can make some headway here where the Tories won't go.
On the plus side, Weldon is sharp. I'd rather see someone insightful on TV than someone a dim shade of neutral. But for a couple of years I've been expecting Weldon to jump deeply in Spadland and now he seems to be doing the reverse.
On the down side... from all his media/blogging work, I've rarely seen much evidence of him seeing two sides to an argument. That may be because he was writing from a platform with an intent to persuade, and somewhere he has a hidden impartiality switch that the editors can toggle. If so, I shall be pleasantly surprised.
To be honest I don't mind journalism which is brazenly political, so long as it's accurate, relevant and informative. "Fairness" is subjective and overrated. But at the very least I'd hope it was balanced out by other shades of opinion being represented, and I'm less comfortable with this sort of thing happening at the BBC than I would be on a commercial broadcaster. My main fear is not so much that he will introduce insidious bias, but that it undermines institutional reputation, and makes the whole organisation - well-loved according to the polls, and one I maintain a certain fondness for -far more vulnerable to political footballing.
I genuinely worry what opportunities they'll have.
Got one off to Staffordshire in September doing computer game stuff, one in the first year of sixth form, and one who starts his final year in school in September.
They're the first lot who will be going to uni in my family, weird, I know, but we were strictly working class when I was a lad.
I don't envy them.
If "middle England" are the lower-middle-class voters of Essex and Kent and the like, then I totally disagree that what they're after is pandering to the City and economic "credibility". That might've been what they wanted in the 90s when many of them did genuinely have aspirations of becoming wealthy and so didn't want high taxes, but right now the ladder has been pulled so far up that people in that group have little of those aspirations any more. In fact, considering this is arguably the demographic that is most fuelling UKIP's rise, you could even say they'd be the MOST receptive to an anti-business message -- Kippers' rage at the "Establishment" includes hatred of big businesses fleecing the rest of us and refusing to give the average joe a fair cut of their profits, as well as rage at Europe and politicians letting in immigrants. It's counterintuitive considering Farage's previous career and their Thatcher-full-fat economic platform, but you just have to look at the polls showing the kippers are wildly enthusiastic about high taxes on the rich, renationalising the railways and other leftwing economic policies, as well as that poll the other day which showed they thought anyone who tried to avoid paying taxes was unsuitable to be a politician.
Outside of the clueless Westminster media, I genuinely don't think most people in the real world think of Ed Miliband as some socialist anti-business crusader -- most people don't think of him as anything at all, they don't think he stands for anything. They had potential to get something going with their energy price freeze last year, which they could've potentially developed into a fully-fleshed-out argument that big businesses were out of control and it was time for politicians to stop pandering to their every whim and consider the public interest more, but they didn't build on it, so the pricefreeze now just looks like a vote-seeking gimmick rather than coming from a genuine principle. Big business fatcats' squeals are just because they're so used to having everything go their own way that even timid suggestions like Labour's so far are enough to outrage them in their alternate-universe bubble.
Atleast in that case, Miliband would be defined as "the guy who wants to take on big business" -- possibly with the negative side-effects that would come with that -- which would be much better than being currently defined as "that weird guy who doesn't believe in anything".
Thought I would add my sentiments to the majority of those expressed on here regarding the life of Tony Benn. I disagreed with him on many issues and, like many people, he was mostly wrong about most things but in his later years he impressed me as a champion of the primacy of Parliament.
We need a strong and robust Legislature as a counter-balance to the Executive and the scrutiny of Government that Parliament provides (or should provide) is vital to the effective function of democratic accountability.
Rail here is mainly freight, and the freight companies own the track. Passenger traffic - mainly northeast, but some nationwide, is run by taxpayer funded Amtrak, and mainly uses the freight companies tracks.
CSX memorably claims that it moves a ton of freight 436 miles on a gallon of fuel.
We'll never see his like again...
To be honest, he realises that already. He says he can't compete with 14 year old Japanese and Korean kids at that- he's more into the concept and look of things, coming up with ideas and characters.
I'm not convinced there is a living for him to be made in it, but he assures me Britain is at the forefront
of the creative side, so I have to let him m have his head.
You argue passionately that Labour should campaign on an economic programme which is distinctly different from that of the other parties.
This option simply isn't available to the two Eds in 2015. At present the UK pays £45 billion at year in interest on its debt. That is more than it pays for any government department except Health and Work & Pensions. By 2017, without any change in plans, this debt servicing cost will rise to £75 billion, about 70% of what we pay for health.
Debt interest will continue to increase for as long as the UK public finances are operated at a deficit. Its cost will only start reducing when substantial cash surpluses become a regular feature of a cyclically adjusted budget (i.e. in mid economic cycle between boom and bust). Current Account surpluses are not due 'til the end of next parliamentary term, though cash surpluses should occur from mid term.
It is all very well accusing Labour of attempting to satisfy "invisible markets" but what the UK pays in interest on its borrowing is determined by these markets and is very visible.
As for pandering to large corporations, some markets are working very well, others less so. Forty per cent of average household spend is made at the main food retailers (supermarkets). This is unquestionably an industry dominated by large corporations but it is also currently very competitive, with such competition driving down inflation through price competition. In this industry the consumer is very much benefitting at the expense of corporate profits.
So the moral of the story may be to let Waitrose and Lidl run the trains and Cameron and Osborne the economy.
The two Eds will get their chance to pitch for an economy based on "serving the public interest" but it won't come until at least 2020. 'Til then they must pretend they are prudent virgins.
I never met him, and I too disliked his politics intensely, but he was always interesting to listen to. He seemed genuine.
@TwistedFireStopper
Very sorry to hear about your predicament (although you are still employed, and I don't want this to sound like an obituary or fatal diagnosis!!).
But the interesting thing is that you seem to be aware of the issue or part of it, inflated head office, admin, other non-core costs - but what power do you have to act to ensure that it is, for example, the diversity unit that is cut rather than you guys who put out the fires?
You mention a fear that the cuts will come to get you over the course of the next 1-5 years but it seems that it is not the cuts that you should be objecting to but the specific cuts that are made presumably on some kind of local level. Is that Central Govt's fault?
It's the same with the "save our libraries" critique of the Coalition. Central govt may reduce the grant but often it is the local council that allocates specific targets.
To which my answer is: which part? game core engine coding, design, audio, graphics, AI, world-building, marketing ...
To which the usual reply is: I dunno, he just likes playing them. Can he get something in test?
Now test is important. Test is the bane of my life. Test stops me earning money (not in gaming, I hasten to add). Test ensure the product is fit for purpose. Test are b@stards. Test should be the first against the wall when the revolution comes, at least if they weren't right so f'ing often.
IMHO Someone wanting to go into gaming needs to understand the industry. Unless they're lucky enough to get into an indy, then they need to understand everything, or they'll be an infinitesimal cog in a massive machine. Look at the company holistically. What have been their failures? Why did they fail? What have been their successes? Why did they succeed?
Do this if you want to be a coder, musician or artist. Preferably, multitask. Know code if you're a musician. Know music if you're a coder.
I got one job when I was younger just because I'd read the company's financial results, ffs, and that put me above the other sub-graduate code-generating automatons trapped in a software factory. In 3D (*).
(*) Extra points for anyone who understands this reference. No-one will. Sobs.
http://www.flightradar24.com/#MAS318/2e4375c?&_suid=139481977350605130697122481636
Fair enough - me too. Labour though have three foxes to shoot well before the election (deficit, Europe, immigration) and have now shot two of them. Only immigration remains. I expect them to deal with that fairly soon before getting on with some of the populist-consumerist stuff later. But they need to be careful.
He first crossed my consciousness in about 1967 when, as Minister of Technology under Wilson, he gave a speech at Filton in Bristol expressing doubts over Concorde's future. Much later, on any questions I think it was, he praised the great technological success that was the Concorde.
Well, these need not be mutually exclusive, and we are all allowed to change tack sometimes. Anyway, he was a politician.
I loved his humanity.
The same story in Amber Valley and Knowsley.
UKIP are still pulling good numbers but the momentum has slowed down.
When will the Tories' swingback start ? They are still falling back 2011 and 2012 !!
Another example of capacity is the 6.32 train from Waterloo to Guildford which is the most crowded commuter train I see on a regular basis. It's only eight coaches long - it could be twelve but would still be crowded. Adding four extra carriages would be akin to adding an extra lane on the M25, however, as the extra capacity would fill after a short time.
South West Trains are finally utilising part of the former Eurostar terminal at Waterloo from May but that's only a very small part of a much bigger capacity issue.
Theresa May would seek passport checks between Scotland and England
Home Secretary says independence vote would bring big changes for migration policy
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/14/passport-checks-needed-between-independent-scotland-and-england
I think this is where I got it from:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2013/05/birmingham
"Birmingham itself was second only to London for the creation of new jobs between 1951 and 1961. Unemployment in Birmingham between 1948 and 1966 rarely exceeded 1%, and only exceeded 2% in one year. By 1961 household incomes in the West Midlands were 13% above the national average, exceeding even than those of London and the South East."
I didn't mention the situation we're in to garner sympathy, merely to highlight that although the economy is looking up, that up and down the country there's a few million people looking at each other and thinking "are we gonna be here this time next year?"
As to cuts, of course its local government that decides who stands and who falls, but it's National government that's told us we're gonna be 5 million quid short for the next few years, so I guess we get to blame everyone.
It'd be nice to believe that we could do without our corporate communications department, or our stonking great HR gang, but realistically, it's gonna be city firefighters who feel the hot breath of the axeman, and not to sound too dramatic, some poor bugger in a house fire or car crash who's gonna have to wait just that little bit longer for salvation.
Years ago, when the FBU used to tell us we were worth 30k, and that Cuts Cost Lives, it never really sank in, but truthfully, we're close to that point, it's just that statistics are used to prove otherwise.
But you're getting shouty and that's usually the signal that it's time to round everyone up and actually get to the bar so have a good one.
News just in: left wing #Newsnight editor hires left wing editor to replace leftwing editor hired after leftwing editor left.
A new blog sean ;-)
As for me, I'm not really free as a PPC to whinge about the party - it'd create an instant news item, even if I wanted to. But I don't usually want to. The reason I'm standing rather than carrying on with my pleasant high-travel current job is that I broadly agree with Labour. If I didn't, I wouldn't bother.
I suppose it's the romantic memories of listening to an illegal station, tucked up in bed trying to get half decent reception without my parents knowing.
- A promise that the government faithfully fulfills its obligations to provide the basics that a modern society needs: a stable legal and economic environment, investment in the necessary infrastructure to secure long-term growth, an effective safety net to help those who run into difficulties, a reasonable standard of living for those retired members of society who have contributed to building the country in which we live, decent healthcare for everyone regardless of means, and a stellar education system to ensure that everyone has the ability to achieve their full potential
- That they should avoid unnecessary foreign adventures, while standing up for the values that Britain holds dear and acting as a beacon of tolerance and enlightenment to the world: God grant that this day we may light such a candle in [Britain] as shall never be put out
- That they should do this as efficiently as possible with the minimum of wastage or unnecessary administration
- That they should tax the minimum necessary to achieve the above, as well as developing a plan to repay out outstanding debts
Apart from that, they should promise to get out of your face, and let you and your family live their lives as you see fit
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4034188.ece
A man who achieved absolutely nothing in his political life and has spent his squalid post Parliamentary career putting party before people.
I love your work!
@SeanT
What can I say, there are millions of people out there, if you were my age you'd be heading out rather than looking for an argument on a politics website too.
Night!
x
So, neither Labour or Tory, then!
We have a million of them, the internet is crammed with places like that (including apparently a revived Radio Caroline itself).
BBC has just appointed Kamal Ahmed from the Sunday Telegraph to be its new main Economics Editor - ie the person who will actually be providing commentary on programmes like the BBC1 10pm news to an audience nearly 10 times greater than Newsnight.
Weldon is going to be the Economics Correspondent on Newsnight - he is going to have far, far, far less scope for editorialising than all the BBC's main political presenters or news editors (ie Robinson, Peston, Ahmed) - and that's before you factor in he'll only be seen by a miniscule audience.
Andrew Neil on This Week with Owen Jones last night was editorialising about 1,000 times as much as anything Weldon might do.