Don't know if this stat has been noted. From being Eton, the school which now has educated the most current Cabinet Ministers is... Parrs Wood High School Manchester. 2. Lucy Powell and Lisa Nandy.
As I said yesterday, the clever approach would be to launch some sort of cross-party consideration, aimed to conclude before the next election. If there’s any sort of (non-Tory) consensus, the proposal goes into the manifestos of those parties that sign up to it, for the next (FPTP) election, and if those parties win a collective majority, it gets enacted for the election after.
That gives Labour two terms and ten years to push through its current plans, avoids another dreaded referendum, and introduces a fairer system before the Tories are likely to have resolved their identity crisis and be back in the game, and probably at the point where voters have had enough of big majority Labour.
If by some miracle there’s pressure to go faster, then do STV for local government in the meantime.
That’s what Labour should do, if they took a mature long-term view.
As I said yesterday, the clever approach would be to launch some sort of cross-party consideration, aimed to conclude before the next election. If there’s any sort of (non-Tory) consensus, the proposal goes into the manifestos of those parties that sign up to it, for the next (FPTP) election, and if those parties win a collective majority, it gets enacted for the election after.
That gives Labour two terms and ten years to push through its current plans, avoids another dreaded referendum, and introduces a fairer system before the Tories are likely to have resolved their identity crisis and be back in the game, and probably at the point where voters have had enough of big majority Labour.
If by some miracle there’s pressure to go faster, then do STV for local government in the meantime.
That’s what Labour should do, if they took a mature long-term view.
That's what Greece does. Any changes to the electoral system are enacted at the next but one election. Assuming that the sitting government still agrees with them.
My comedy Reform manifesto will now be lost to the sands of time.
Like tears in rain. Time to die.
That was on TV last night. The original theatrical version with the commentary. Just brilliant whichever form you watch. In my top 3 films of all time - all of which are pretty much equal with each other.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
My comedy Reform manifesto will now be lost to the sands of time.
Like tears in rain. Time to die.
That was on TV last night. The original theatrical version with the commentary. Just brilliant whichever form you watch. In my top 3 films of all time - all of which are reptty much equal with each other.
OT. This may already have been mentioned but if the Telegraph hadn't already jumped the shark a long time ago this would be a contender for the most stupid/brass eared article of all time
Don't know if this stat has been noted. From being Eton, the school which now has educated the most current Cabinet Ministers is... Parrs Wood High School Manchester. 2. Lucy Powell and Lisa Nandy.
I believe it was mentioned this morning. Still a good stat though.
My comedy Reform manifesto will now be lost to the sands of time.
Like tears in rain. Time to die.
That was on TV last night. The original theatrical version with the commentary. Just brilliant whichever form you watch. In my top 3 films of all time - all of which are reptty much equal with each other.
I have never seen the no commentary version (which I thought was the original) and I think I would have made no sense at all of it.
OT. This may already have been mentioned but if the Telegraph hadn't already jumped the shark a long time ago this would be a contender for the most stupid/brass eared article of all time
My comedy Reform manifesto will now be lost to the sands of time.
Like tears in rain. Time to die.
That was on TV last night. The original theatrical version with the commentary. Just brilliant whichever form you watch. In my top 3 films of all time - all of which are reptty much equal with each other.
What are the other 2?
Very personal choice but for me Casablanca and Local Hero. Mark Kermode in his reviews often addresses the rare 'perfect' films. I would class all three of those films as perfect.
OT. This may already have been mentioned but if the Telegraph hadn't already jumped the shark a long time ago this would be a contender for the most stupid/brass eared article of all time
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
That could provide perfect cover for the other parties doing the same, at least in Tory held seats.
OT. This may already have been mentioned but if the Telegraph hadn't already jumped the shark a long time ago this would be a contender for the most stupid/brass eared article of all time
Labour’s new prisons minister doesn’t understand that handing out endless second chances only emboldens career criminals
I've only seen him talk about things in one clip, but he seemed pretty realistic about things, not take a chance on anyone idealistic.
Indeed. He has spent years trying to make rehabiitation a reality and from what I understand has been markedly successful in it as well. When I heard he had been made prisons minister my first though was that it was a brave choice, my second was whether he knew enough about the prison system itself to do the job but my third thought (a la Pratchett) was that it might just turn out to be inspired as here was someone who understood the British criminal sanction system from the sharp end.
Yes he might fail but I wish him well and he deserves to succeed.
OT. This may already have been mentioned but if the Telegraph hadn't already jumped the shark a long time ago this would be a contender for the most stupid/brass eared article of all time
Putting aside the ridiculousness, this is interesting part.
Only 1-in-10 prison sentences are for so-called “first-time offenders”, sentences hardly ever passed down for small misunderstandings or harmless misbehaviour. More than half of the prison population are there for violent or sexual offences – to say nothing of the burglars, robbers, knife carriers, or drug traffickers that some are all too quick to erroneously classify as “non-violent”.
We also know that nearly two-thirds (63 per cent) of prison sentences were handed out to criminals with seven or more previous convictions or cautions – with more than half (53 per cent) going to criminals with 11 or more previous convictions or cautions.
The question is how to change this. Something isn't working at the moment.
OT. This may already have been mentioned but if the Telegraph hadn't already jumped the shark a long time ago this would be a contender for the most stupid/brass eared article of all time
Labour’s new prisons minister doesn’t understand that handing out endless second chances only emboldens career criminals
I've only seen him talk about things in one clip, but he seemed pretty realistic about things, not take a chance on anyone idealistic.
Indeed. He has spent years trying to make rehabiitation a reality and from what I understand has been markedly successful in it as well. When I heard he had been made prisons minister my first though was that it was a brave choice, my second was whether he knew enough about the prison system itself to do the job but my third thought (a la Pratchett) was that it might just turn out to be inspired as here was someone who understood the British criminal sanction system from the sharp end.
Yes he might fail but I wish him well and he deserves to succeed.
What we're currently doing doesn't seem to be working, attempting something else seems worth a try.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
That could provide perfect cover for the other parties doing the same, at least in Tory held seats.
It's effectively happened - & opposition parties are free to do whatever deals they like pre-election ! It'd put some Conservatives off voting Conservative, and not all the vote would transfer but it'd be a net benefit - mostly to the Conservatives. Aside from Llanelli Reform's Labour targets are.... quite a long way away and they're places the Tories have never won in living memory even during the Boris landslide.
For completeness here's the other Reform 2nds not facing Labour strongholds
Reform 2nd to Labour, Conservative held 2019 Whitehaven and Workington Kingston-Upon-Hull West and Haltemprice Wakefield & Rothwell Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Leigh and Atherton Bridgend Telford Blackpool South Stoke on Trent central Thurrock Dover & Deal Spen Valley Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Amber Valley
Reform 2nd to the Tories North East Cambridgeshire South Holland and the Deepings Maldon Brentwood and Ongar Louth and Horncastle Rayleigh and Wickford Isle of Wight East Hornchurch and Upminster
Reform 2nds to Labour (74)
Not sure which amused me more on that list, Hull West or Telford.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
That could provide perfect cover for the other parties doing the same, at least in Tory held seats.
It's effectively happened - & opposition parties are free to do whatever deals they like pre-election ! It'd put some Conservatives off voting Conservative, and not all the vote would transfer but it'd be a net benefit - mostly to the Conservatives. Aside from Llanelli Reform's Labour targets are.... quite a long way away and they're places the Tories have never won in living memory even during the Boris landslide.
For completeness here's the other Reform 2nds not facing Labour strongholds
Reform 2nd to Labour, Conservative held 2019 Whitehaven and Workington Kingston-Upon-Hull West and Haltemprice Wakefield & Rothwell Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Leigh and Atherton Bridgend Telford Blackpool South Stoke on Trent central Thurrock Dover & Deal Spen Valley Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Amber Valley
Reform 2nd to the Tories North East Cambridgeshire South Holland and the Deepings Maldon Brentwood and Ongar Louth and Horncastle Rayleigh and Wickford Isle of Wight East Hornchurch and Upminster
Reform 2nds to Labour (74)
Not sure which amused me more on that list, Hull West or Telford.
Rotherham this time, no Tory candidate and only just over a third of the Tory vote transferred to Reform - and that’s not dissimilar to what happened in areas where there was a Tory candidate! The remaining Tories don’t seem that keen to go shopping with Farage.
My comedy Reform manifesto will now be lost to the sands of time.
Like tears in rain. Time to die.
That was on TV last night. The original theatrical version with the commentary. Just brilliant whichever form you watch. In my top 3 films of all time - all of which are reptty much equal with each other.
What are the other 2?
Very personal choice but for me Casablanca and Local Hero. Mark Kermode in his reviews often addresses the rare 'perfect' films. I would class all three of those films as perfect.
OK agree about Casablanca. Its quotability is extraordinary, up there with Hamlet (You played it for her, I'm shocked, hill of beans, such watch, all the gin joints in the world, usual suspects, always have Paris...) Not seen LH but have loved the soundtrack for over 30 years so I probably should.
My comedy Reform manifesto will now be lost to the sands of time.
Like tears in rain. Time to die.
That was on TV last night. The original theatrical version with the commentary. Just brilliant whichever form you watch. In my top 3 films of all time - all of which are reptty much equal with each other.
What are the other 2?
Very personal choice but for me Casablanca and Local Hero. Mark Kermode in his reviews often addresses the rare 'perfect' films. I would class all three of those films as perfect.
I saw Local Hero - then pretty much spent the next 25 years being Mac.
My comedy Reform manifesto will now be lost to the sands of time.
Like tears in rain. Time to die.
That was on TV last night. The original theatrical version with the commentary. Just brilliant whichever form you watch. In my top 3 films of all time - all of which are reptty much equal with each other.
I have never seen the no commentary version (which I thought was the original) and I think I would have made no sense at all of it.
The film was originally made without commentary but the studios decided it was too difficult to understand and so had Ford do the commentary for the theatrical release. Personally I like it as it adds to the film noir feel of the whole thing. But neither Ford nor Scott were happy with it so the version released on DVD and the later Directors cut both dropped the commentary and added in the additional scenes to indicate that Deckard was a replicant which was Scott's original vision.
Having seen the film in its original form with the comemntary it is of course now impossible for me to ay whether it is understandable without as when watching the later versions I already have the commentary in my mind.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
Reform and Conservatives are not the same, no matter how much you seem to want that to be.
Alot of Reform voters were as anti-Tory as anti-Labour.
Nope you haven't got it. See @TimS explanation it is better than mine. Think of it this way in half the seats there weren't NFP or Macron candidates to vote for. Here is an example:
Seat 1 Macron 1, RN 1 Seat 2 NFP 1, RN 1
RN has twice the vote of each, but has twice the opportunity. The other two only have half the opportunity.
Your logic is flawed by comparing her vote to theirs. You are comparing apples to pears. It is like saying Corbyn did an appalling job winning his seat compared to Labour because he got a lot less votes across the whole country than Labour. That is clearly nonsense as Corbyn beat Labour and he wasn't standing anywhere else. It is a daft statement.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
"Electoral Reform" covers a multitude of sins and while GB News has been bleating on about the inequity of the current system since Friday afternoon, it's mainly about how unfair the system is to Farage and Reform about whom I couldn't give a Tice.
If we're going to talk about electoral reform, we also need to talk about political reform. Changing the voting system achieves nothing if the political system and structure remains the same. We all know (and I say this as an LD) everyone wants the system which works best for them rather than the system which works best.
If it weren't for the fact talking about changing the political system would be as self-indulgent as talking about leaving the European Union, it would be a debate worth having but it's not the debate the public want to have. The public want the other huge problems of the country properly addressed. Get those solved and we can talk about STV ad nauseam and ad infinitum.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
Nope you haven't got it. See @TimS explanation it is better than mine. Think of it this way in half the seats there weren't NFP or Macron candidates to vote for. Here is an example:
Seat 1 Macron 1, RN 1 Seat 2 NFP 1, RN 1
RN has twice the vote of each, but has twice the opportunity. The other two only have half the opportunity.
Your logic is flawed by comparing her vote to theirs. You are comparing apples to pears. It is like saying Corbyn did an appalling job winning his seat compared to Labour because he got a lot less votes across the whole country than Labour. That is clearly nonsense as Corbyn beat Labour and he wasn't standing anywhere else. It is a daft statement.
Your logic is screwed.
That Leon doesn’t understand French politics is evident by now.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
Strange encounter.
Oddest one I've had in years was the (presumably) drunk guy outside a railway station who asked me if I was jewish. I've no idea if he asked everyone that or just me.
"Electoral Reform" covers a multitude of sins and while GB News has been bleating on about the inequity of the current system since Friday afternoon, it's mainly about how unfair the system is to Farage and Reform about whom I couldn't give a Tice.
If we're going to talk about electoral reform, we also need to talk about political reform. Changing the voting system achieves nothing if the political system and structure remains the same. We all know (and I say this as an LD) everyone wants the system which works best for them rather than the system which works best.
If it weren't for the fact talking about changing the political system would be as self-indulgent as talking about leaving the European Union, it would be a debate worth having but it's not the debate the public want to have. The public want the other huge problems of the country properly addressed. Get those solved and we can talk about STV ad nauseam and ad infinitum.
Spot on about everyone wanting the system that works best for them rather than the system that works best. Labour introduced the system for Holyrood believing it would cement them in power. Oops.
I think this is a genuinely difficult question. My tentative conclusion for now is that FPTP as currently done is second best to a simple AV, with choices 1 and 2, so that you can can reliably vote for who you really want but choose with vote 2 not to risk wasting your vote.
But there is a case for FPTP as we did it last week. There were (I believe) two very strong collective wishes: to get rid of the Tories (75%+ agreement) and a wish for a government that was reasonably centrist. (Lab + LD + most Tories + most non voters). The latter is harder to prove, but there you are. As Reform voters wanted simple answers to complex problems, there is no point is worrying about them except that 85% of us didn't vote for them.
FPTP did the job, about as well as possible. I think AV would do it slightly better, but most other systems would do it worse.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
It’s the job of your new MP to remember his party members.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
It'd be pretty foolish. Begs all sorts of questions about whether they endorse each others programmes. And Lib Dems argue Con/RefUK aren't a genuinely national party, with implications for coverage and debates.
Tories have to either absorb or destroy RefUK. A weird compromise is the worst of all worlds.
Microsoft has ordered staff in China to swap their Android devices for iPhones amid mounting security concerns.
The US technology giant has told thousands of employees in China that they must make the switch by September, becoming the latest company to tighten up protections in the country.
The move comes as Microsoft attempts to tighten up staff security after a string of cyber security blunders.
Chinese state-sponsored hackers were able to access email accounts of government employees and US companies last year after a flaw in its Microsoft Exchange software.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
It’s the job of your new MP to remember his party members.
My comedy Reform manifesto will now be lost to the sands of time.
Like tears in rain. Time to die.
That was on TV last night. The original theatrical version with the commentary. Just brilliant whichever form you watch. In my top 3 films of all time - all of which are reptty much equal with each other.
I have never seen the no commentary version (which I thought was the original) and I think I would have made no sense at all of it.
The film was originally made without commentary but the studios decided it was too difficult to understand and so had Ford do the commentary for the theatrical release. Personally I like it as it adds to the film noir feel of the whole thing. But neither Ford nor Scott were happy with it so the version released on DVD and the later Directors cut both dropped the commentary and added in the additional scenes to indicate that Deckard was a replicant which was Scott's original vision.
Having seen the film in its original form with the comemntary it is of course now impossible for me to ay whether it is understandable without as when watching the later versions I already have the commentary in my mind.
Like trying to decide whether Dylan is a great poet when it's impossible to read the words of Mr Tambourine Man without also hearing it
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
That could provide perfect cover for the other parties doing the same, at least in Tory held seats.
It's effectively happened - & opposition parties are free to do whatever deals they like pre-election ! It'd put some Conservatives off voting Conservative, and not all the vote would transfer but it'd be a net benefit - mostly to the Conservatives. Aside from Llanelli Reform's Labour targets are.... quite a long way away and they're places the Tories have never won in living memory even during the Boris landslide.
For completeness here's the other Reform 2nds not facing Labour strongholds
Reform 2nd to Labour, Conservative held 2019 Whitehaven and Workington Kingston-Upon-Hull West and Haltemprice Wakefield & Rothwell Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Leigh and Atherton Bridgend Telford Blackpool South Stoke on Trent central Thurrock Dover & Deal Spen Valley Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Amber Valley
Reform 2nd to the Tories North East Cambridgeshire South Holland and the Deepings Maldon Brentwood and Ongar Louth and Horncastle Rayleigh and Wickford Isle of Wight East Hornchurch and Upminster
Reform 2nds to Labour (74)
Not sure which amused me more on that list, Hull West or Telford.
Rotherham this time, no Tory candidate and only just over a third of the Tory vote transferred to Reform - and that’s not dissimilar to what happened in areas where there was a Tory candidate! The remaining Tories don’t seem that keen to go shopping with Farage.
I think Farage would potentially buy it - it'd suit the Conservatives more though. Simon Clarke only had an 11.7% swing against him and almost held his seat with no Reform present. The Tories would be further back there if Reform had ran.
I think this is a genuinely difficult question. My tentative conclusion for now is that FPTP as currently done is second best to a simple AV, with choices 1 and 2, so that you can can reliably vote for who you really want but choose with vote 2 not to risk wasting your vote.
But there is a case for FPTP as we did it last week. There were (I believe) two very strong collective wishes: to get rid of the Tories (75%+ agreement) and a wish for a government that was reasonably centrist. (Lab + LD + most Tories + most non voters). The latter is harder to prove, but there you are. As Reform voters wanted simple answers to complex problems, there is no point is worrying about them except that 85% of us didn't vote for them.
FPTP did the job, about as well as possible. I think AV would do it slightly better, but most other systems would do it worse.
The fundamental problem with many proposed systems is it creates two classes of MP - the "constituency" MP and the List MP. I think it either has to be all one or all the other and for some removing the "sacred" link between the MP and the constituency would be anathema (I don't see why either).
I agree last Thursday was all about giving the order of the boot to the Conservatives from Government but not from existence. The verdict was nuanced enough to work fairly well - Labour didn't win too big, the Conservatives didn't lose too big. As to the lessons both (and other) parties will draw, that's for the future.
To achieve the expulsion of the Conservatives meant a number of options for voters - Labour, LD, Green or Reform. The option chosen varied, the effect of the choices varied. In a few instances, the sitting Conservative survived becayse the options chosen weren't the right ones but in 250 instances the local voters got it right.
That wasn't down to the voting system but to the options available and those trying to put forward the options.
My comedy Reform manifesto will now be lost to the sands of time.
Like tears in rain. Time to die.
That was on TV last night. The original theatrical version with the commentary. Just brilliant whichever form you watch. In my top 3 films of all time - all of which are reptty much equal with each other.
What are the other 2?
Very personal choice but for me Casablanca and Local Hero. Mark Kermode in his reviews often addresses the rare 'perfect' films. I would class all three of those films as perfect.
OK agree about Casablanca. Its quotability is extraordinary, up there with Hamlet (You played it for her, I'm shocked, hill of beans, such watch, all the gin joints in the world, usual suspects, always have Paris...) Not seen LH but have loved the soundtrack for over 30 years so I probably should.
Award yourself two hours of good-as-the-day-it-was-released joy - and watch Local Hero.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
I got this on a bike sportive the other day, people overtaking me and saying Hello John how you doing? At about mile 50 I worked out it was because it said John Smith on the number pinned to my back, while most people had comedy names like Attila the Hun.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
That could provide perfect cover for the other parties doing the same, at least in Tory held seats.
It's effectively happened - & opposition parties are free to do whatever deals they like pre-election ! It'd put some Conservatives off voting Conservative, and not all the vote would transfer but it'd be a net benefit - mostly to the Conservatives. Aside from Llanelli Reform's Labour targets are.... quite a long way away and they're places the Tories have never won in living memory even during the Boris landslide.
For completeness here's the other Reform 2nds not facing Labour strongholds
Reform 2nd to Labour, Conservative held 2019 Whitehaven and Workington Kingston-Upon-Hull West and Haltemprice Wakefield & Rothwell Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Leigh and Atherton Bridgend Telford Blackpool South Stoke on Trent central Thurrock Dover & Deal Spen Valley Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Amber Valley
Reform 2nd to the Tories North East Cambridgeshire South Holland and the Deepings Maldon Brentwood and Ongar Louth and Horncastle Rayleigh and Wickford Isle of Wight East Hornchurch and Upminster
Reform 2nds to Labour (74)
Not sure which amused me more on that list, Hull West or Telford.
Rotherham this time, no Tory candidate and only just over a third of the Tory vote transferred to Reform - and that’s not dissimilar to what happened in areas where there was a Tory candidate! The remaining Tories don’t seem that keen to go shopping with Farage.
I think Farage would potentially buy it - it'd suit the Conservatives more though. Simon Clarke only had an 11.7% swing against him and almost held his seat with no Reform present. The Tories would be further back there if Reform had ran.
I don’t think so. He’s a wrecker who likes destroying stuff. He hoped to destroy the EU but had to settle for destroying our membership of it. Now he wants to destroy the Tories. He’s not in it for the hard graft of minority party leader, and either he sticks with it through to a denouement at the next GE, or walks away prior. Once he’s gone, it’ll fade away as UKIP did without him.
As it is, he’s going to find bobbing up and down trying to catch the speakers eye, from some uncomfortable seat at the back with his handful of colleagues, quite humiliating given the prominence he’s used to.
Microsoft has ordered staff in China to swap their Android devices for iPhones amid mounting security concerns.
The US technology giant has told thousands of employees in China that they must make the switch by September, becoming the latest company to tighten up protections in the country.
The move comes as Microsoft attempts to tighten up staff security after a string of cyber security blunders.
Chinese state-sponsored hackers were able to access email accounts of government employees and US companies last year after a flaw in its Microsoft Exchange software.
China doesn't have Google Play Services or the Play Store for Android Phones. So Chinese Android phones are running services and app stores from local Chinese companies. So it's not Android that is the issue, it's that they are running services from Chinese companies. It's basically concern about a supply chain attack.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
Do you have a common name, like Mark or David?
Or Ethan or Jayden these days.
Noah. Loads of them around the younger age groups.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
Do you have a common name, like Mark or David?
Nope. He knew me.
My wife's theory is he's someone I went to school or college with who's fallen on hard times.
These things come out the blue and can somewhat flummox you.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
Do you have a common name, like Mark or David?
Nope. He knew me.
My wife's theory is he's someone I went to school or college with who's fallen on hard times.
These things come out the blue and can somewhat flummox you.
I was at a shop once when the cashier asked where I went to school and when I revealed it they stated I was in the same year as one of the siblings, who was not even a friend of mine.
It made me realise I'm either a lot more memorable than I think I am, or that some people are scarily good with names and faces. This was at least 20 years after the fact.
I think this is a genuinely difficult question. My tentative conclusion for now is that FPTP as currently done is second best to a simple AV, with choices 1 and 2, so that you can can reliably vote for who you really want but choose with vote 2 not to risk wasting your vote.
But there is a case for FPTP as we did it last week. There were (I believe) two very strong collective wishes: to get rid of the Tories (75%+ agreement) and a wish for a government that was reasonably centrist. (Lab + LD + most Tories + most non voters). The latter is harder to prove, but there you are. As Reform voters wanted simple answers to complex problems, there is no point is worrying about them except that 85% of us didn't vote for them.
FPTP did the job, about as well as possible. I think AV would do it slightly better, but most other systems would do it worse.
The fundamental problem with many proposed systems is it creates two classes of MP - the "constituency" MP and the List MP. I think it either has to be all one or all the other and for some removing the "sacred" link between the MP and the constituency would be anathema (I don't see why either).
I agree last Thursday was all about giving the order of the boot to the Conservatives from Government but not from existence. The verdict was nuanced enough to work fairly well - Labour didn't win too big, the Conservatives didn't lose too big. As to the lessons both (and other) parties will draw, that's for the future.
To achieve the expulsion of the Conservatives meant a number of options for voters - Labour, LD, Green or Reform. The option chosen varied, the effect of the choices varied. In a few instances, the sitting Conservative survived becayse the options chosen weren't the right ones but in 250 instances the local voters got it right.
That wasn't down to the voting system but to the options available and those trying to put forward the options.
PR is based on the fundamentally false premise that ordinary people think about politics in ideological terms.
FPTP is the best system because it's the most human.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
Do you have a common name, like Mark or David?
Nope. He knew me.
My wife's theory is he's someone I went to school or college with who's fallen on hard times.
These things come out the blue and can somewhat flummox you.
Hard times. This fella can afford to start the day with rum. He’s made it!
Microsoft has ordered staff in China to swap their Android devices for iPhones amid mounting security concerns.
The US technology giant has told thousands of employees in China that they must make the switch by September, becoming the latest company to tighten up protections in the country.
The move comes as Microsoft attempts to tighten up staff security after a string of cyber security blunders.
Chinese state-sponsored hackers were able to access email accounts of government employees and US companies last year after a flaw in its Microsoft Exchange software.
China doesn't have Google Play Services or the Play Store for Android Phones. So Chinese Android phones are running services and app stores from local Chinese companies. So it's not Android that is the issue, it's that they are running services from Chinese companies. It's basically concern about a supply chain attack.
Surely it is Android that's the issue - the fact that it is not a locked down as IOS and will allow unverfied apps and services to be installed?
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
That could provide perfect cover for the other parties doing the same, at least in Tory held seats.
It's effectively happened - & opposition parties are free to do whatever deals they like pre-election ! It'd put some Conservatives off voting Conservative, and not all the vote would transfer but it'd be a net benefit - mostly to the Conservatives. Aside from Llanelli Reform's Labour targets are.... quite a long way away and they're places the Tories have never won in living memory even during the Boris landslide.
For completeness here's the other Reform 2nds not facing Labour strongholds
Reform 2nd to Labour, Conservative held 2019 Whitehaven and Workington Kingston-Upon-Hull West and Haltemprice Wakefield & Rothwell Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Leigh and Atherton Bridgend Telford Blackpool South Stoke on Trent central Thurrock Dover & Deal Spen Valley Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Amber Valley
Reform 2nd to the Tories North East Cambridgeshire South Holland and the Deepings Maldon Brentwood and Ongar Louth and Horncastle Rayleigh and Wickford Isle of Wight East Hornchurch and Upminster
Reform 2nds to Labour (74)
Not sure which amused me more on that list, Hull West or Telford.
Rotherham this time, no Tory candidate and only just over a third of the Tory vote transferred to Reform - and that’s not dissimilar to what happened in areas where there was a Tory candidate! The remaining Tories don’t seem that keen to go shopping with Farage.
I think Farage would potentially buy it - it'd suit the Conservatives more though. Simon Clarke only had an 11.7% swing against him and almost held his seat with no Reform present. The Tories would be further back there if Reform had ran.
I don’t think so. He’s a wrecker who likes destroying stuff. He hoped to destroy the EU but had to settle for destroying our membership of it. Now he wants to destroy the Tories. He’s not in it for the hard graft of minority party leader, and either he sticks with it through to a denouement at the next GE, or walks away prior. Once he’s gone, it’ll fade away as UKIP did without him.
As it is, he’s going to find bobbing up and down trying to catch the speakers eye, from some uncomfortable seat at the back with his handful of colleagues, quite humiliating given the prominence he’s used to.
UKIP died on it's arse because it only got 1 MP in 2015, a one Douglas Carswell and obviously with Farage not winning it was never going to last. Brexit didn't win anything in 2019 so obviously that went pop. Winning 5 seats gives Reform a small base in parliament, next stop the Senedd elections where they'll probably do alright. I think this latest incarnation will stick around longer than people here think.
The last thing I thought would probably stick around longer than people generally thought on here/X was the Ukraine war and I was right on that.
Don't think SKS will be in any rush to give up the voting system that gave him 411 seats on 34% if the national vote...
There is more to elections than maths. To win 411 seats out of the 630 you stand in involves (obviously) actually coming first in a bare knuckle and bloody cage fight which anyone can join on 411 separate occasions on the same day. Even to form a bare majority government you have to win 325 of them. And you lose even if you lose by one vote.
Anyone who can can do that in the face of the barbarian horde that makes up the UK voter deserves to win, completely regardless of what % vote they got in totality.
The case for FPTP is remarkably strong.
Horses win races even though the others run nearly as fast. You still have to win it
I welcome it. I don't care what their position was before or how hypocritical it is that they now call for it.
The more the merrier. Real life is about working with people you don't like to get things done. If the Tories are the thing that gets STV done, then fantastic!
That is of course assuming the Tories are actually real. Some of their 2019 intake may also have been AI - that Jill Mortimer never went to Hartlepool as an example...
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
Do you have a common name, like Mark or David?
Nope. He knew me.
My wife's theory is he's someone I went to school or college with who's fallen on hard times.
These things come out the blue and can somewhat flummox you.
If you do this walk a lot from car to station and this guy hangs around a lot then maybe he heard someone use your name?
It is amazing what people can retain randomly even when slugging the rum at 7am.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
Do you have a common name, like Mark or David?
Nope. He knew me.
My wife's theory is he's someone I went to school or college with who's fallen on hard times.
These things come out the blue and can somewhat flummox you.
I was at a shop once when the cashier asked where I went to school and when I revealed it they stated I was in the same year as one of the siblings, who was not even a friend of mine.
It made me realise I'm either a lot more memorable than I think I am, or that some people are scarily good with names and faces.
A few years ago I was in a coffee shop not where I live, situated in the window working, out of the corner of my eye I kinda of registered somebody run past at a fair old rate in full running gear....a few minutes they came back past the other way and then a third time...I look up and this guy is standing besides me in the coffee shop. The guy introduced themselves as somebody I went to school with 20+ years ago and hadn't spoken to since.
Landed in Moscow. Looking forward to further deepening the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between our nations, especially in futuristic areas of cooperation. Stronger ties between our nations will greatly benefit our people.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
Do you have a common name, like Mark or David?
Nope. He knew me.
My wife's theory is he's someone I went to school or college with who's fallen on hard times.
These things come out the blue and can somewhat flummox you.
Hard times. This fella can afford to start the day with rum. He’s made it!
Blimey he must be desperate if he's had to make it himself.
Landed in Moscow. Looking forward to further deepening the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between our nations, especially in futuristic areas of cooperation. Stronger ties between our nations will greatly benefit our people.
So, walking to the station from the car park this morning. A bloke ambling along next to another guy and carrying a massive bottle of rum, whilst swigging from it at 7am in the morning, with a scraggy beard and very bad teeth shouts over to me, "Hi Casino*!".
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
Do you have a common name, like Mark or David?
Or Ethan or Jayden these days.
Noah. Loads of them around the younger age groups.
Don't think SKS will be in any rush to give up the voting system that gave him 411 seats on 34% if the national vote...
There is more to elections than maths. To win 411 seats out of the 630 you stand in involves (obviously) actually coming first in a bare knuckle and bloody cage fight which anyone can join on 411 separate occasions on the same day. Even to form a bare majority government you have to win 325 of them. And you lose even if you lose by one vote.
Anyone who can can do that in the face of the barbarian horde that makes up the UK voter deserves to win, completely regardless of what % vote they got in totality.
The case for FPTP is remarkably strong.
Horses win races even though the others run nearly as fast. You still have to win it
What a load of nonsense. There must be better arguments than this gibberish for FPTP.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
It'd be pretty foolish. Begs all sorts of questions about whether they endorse each others programmes. And Lib Dems argue Con/RefUK aren't a genuinely national party, with implications for coverage and debates.
Tories have to either absorb or destroy RefUK. A weird compromise is the worst of all worlds.
Labour would also have a field day with 'coalition of chaos' stuff while both they and the Lib Dems would run on fear of Farage in the same way the Tories successfully ran on fear of Corbyn in 2019. Both very popular with a certain section of the electorate, but with a serious prospect of becoming PM/entering government, the rest of the country strongly will vote for whoever will keep them out.
Microsoft has ordered staff in China to swap their Android devices for iPhones amid mounting security concerns.
The US technology giant has told thousands of employees in China that they must make the switch by September, becoming the latest company to tighten up protections in the country.
The move comes as Microsoft attempts to tighten up staff security after a string of cyber security blunders.
Chinese state-sponsored hackers were able to access email accounts of government employees and US companies last year after a flaw in its Microsoft Exchange software.
Not difficult to parse this as: Chinese government tells Microsoft to tell its guys to switch to Apple because Apple has been in our pocket for years and we do like to know what is going on. Me, I use Telegram cos it makes me feel edgy as fuck. And because it is the channel of choice for the few people I know living in genuinely dodgy countries.
Landed in Moscow. Looking forward to further deepening the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between our nations, especially in futuristic areas of cooperation. Stronger ties between our nations will greatly benefit our people.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
That could provide perfect cover for the other parties doing the same, at least in Tory held seats.
It's effectively happened - & opposition parties are free to do whatever deals they like pre-election ! It'd put some Conservatives off voting Conservative, and not all the vote would transfer but it'd be a net benefit - mostly to the Conservatives. Aside from Llanelli Reform's Labour targets are.... quite a long way away and they're places the Tories have never won in living memory even during the Boris landslide.
For completeness here's the other Reform 2nds not facing Labour strongholds
Reform 2nd to Labour, Conservative held 2019 Whitehaven and Workington Kingston-Upon-Hull West and Haltemprice Wakefield & Rothwell Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Leigh and Atherton Bridgend Telford Blackpool South Stoke on Trent central Thurrock Dover & Deal Spen Valley Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Amber Valley
Reform 2nd to the Tories North East Cambridgeshire South Holland and the Deepings Maldon Brentwood and Ongar Louth and Horncastle Rayleigh and Wickford Isle of Wight East Hornchurch and Upminster
Reform 2nds to Labour (74)
Not sure which amused me more on that list, Hull West or Telford.
Rotherham this time, no Tory candidate and only just over a third of the Tory vote transferred to Reform - and that’s not dissimilar to what happened in areas where there was a Tory candidate! The remaining Tories don’t seem that keen to go shopping with Farage.
Bizarrely, Reform only stood a paper candidate in Rotherham, given you'd have thought it should be a target.
I went to Tynemouth beach for the very first time some time late 2010's. Very few people around. Who should come walking by, but a girl (now woman) I'd sort of known at College, friend of very close friends, and hadn't seen or heard from for 25+ years. I was the one doing the disturbing calling out of her full name. She gave me a big hug. We had both become connected to the NE by marriage. We've met up on a couple of occasions since.
Surely it is Android that's the issue - the fact that it is not a locked down as IOS and will allow unverfied apps and services to be installed?
The issue is not the architecture but the ownership.
You could have a Huawei phone, with a HiSilicon chipset, and the Huawei app store, and turn on every security feature, don't install anything but the Microsoft Authenticator app, and remove every other app shipped with the phone. You would still have to implictly trust Huawei as the phone manufacturer, the designer of the key chips, and as the provider of the app store and all scanning and signing of apps. That's the issue for Microsoft, not side-loading or third-party app stores, both of which they could easily disable with their MDM software.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
It'd be pretty foolish. Begs all sorts of questions about whether they endorse each others programmes. And Lib Dems argue Con/RefUK aren't a genuinely national party, with implications for coverage and debates.
Tories have to either absorb or destroy RefUK. A weird compromise is the worst of all worlds.
Labour would also have a field day with 'coalition of chaos' stuff while both they and the Lib Dems would run on fear of Farage in the same way the Tories successfully ran on fear of Corbyn in 2019. Both very popular with a certain section of the electorate, but with a serious prospect of becoming PM/entering government, the rest of the country strongly will vote for whoever will keep them out.
Don't think SKS will be in any rush to give up the voting system that gave him 411 seats on 34% if the national vote...
There is more to elections than maths. To win 411 seats out of the 630 you stand in involves (obviously) actually coming first in a bare knuckle and bloody cage fight which anyone can join on 411 separate occasions on the same day. Even to form a bare majority government you have to win 325 of them. And you lose even if you lose by one vote.
Anyone who can can do that in the face of the barbarian horde that makes up the UK voter deserves to win, completely regardless of what % vote they got in totality.
The case for FPTP is remarkably strong.
Horses win races even though the others run nearly as fast. You still have to win it
What a load of nonsense. There must be better arguments than this gibberish for FPTP.
I'm not sure there are any strong arguments for FPTP tbh.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
It'd be pretty foolish. Begs all sorts of questions about whether they endorse each others programmes. And Lib Dems argue Con/RefUK aren't a genuinely national party, with implications for coverage and debates.
Tories have to either absorb or destroy RefUK. A weird compromise is the worst of all worlds.
Labour would also have a field day with 'coalition of chaos' stuff while both they and the Lib Dems would run on fear of Farage in the same way the Tories successfully ran on fear of Corbyn in 2019. Both very popular with a certain section of the electorate, but with a serious prospect of becoming PM/entering government, the rest of the country strongly will vote for whoever will keep them out.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
That could provide perfect cover for the other parties doing the same, at least in Tory held seats.
It's effectively happened - & opposition parties are free to do whatever deals they like pre-election ! It'd put some Conservatives off voting Conservative, and not all the vote would transfer but it'd be a net benefit - mostly to the Conservatives. Aside from Llanelli Reform's Labour targets are.... quite a long way away and they're places the Tories have never won in living memory even during the Boris landslide.
For completeness here's the other Reform 2nds not facing Labour strongholds
Reform 2nd to Labour, Conservative held 2019 Whitehaven and Workington Kingston-Upon-Hull West and Haltemprice Wakefield & Rothwell Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Leigh and Atherton Bridgend Telford Blackpool South Stoke on Trent central Thurrock Dover & Deal Spen Valley Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Amber Valley
Reform 2nd to the Tories North East Cambridgeshire South Holland and the Deepings Maldon Brentwood and Ongar Louth and Horncastle Rayleigh and Wickford Isle of Wight East Hornchurch and Upminster
Reform 2nds to Labour (74)
Not sure which amused me more on that list, Hull West or Telford.
Rotherham this time, no Tory candidate and only just over a third of the Tory vote transferred to Reform - and that’s not dissimilar to what happened in areas where there was a Tory candidate! The remaining Tories don’t seem that keen to go shopping with Farage.
I think Farage would potentially buy it - it'd suit the Conservatives more though. Simon Clarke only had an 11.7% swing against him and almost held his seat with no Reform present. The Tories would be further back there if Reform had ran.
I don’t think so. He’s a wrecker who likes destroying stuff. He hoped to destroy the EU but had to settle for destroying our membership of it. Now he wants to destroy the Tories. He’s not in it for the hard graft of minority party leader, and either he sticks with it through to a denouement at the next GE, or walks away prior. Once he’s gone, it’ll fade away as UKIP did without him.
As it is, he’s going to find bobbing up and down trying to catch the speakers eye, from some uncomfortable seat at the back with his handful of colleagues, quite humiliating given the prominence he’s used to.
UKIP died on it's arse because it only got 1 MP in 2015, a one Douglas Carswell and obviously with Farage not winning it was never going to last. Brexit didn't win anything in 2019 so obviously that went pop. Winning 5 seats gives Reform a small base in parliament, next stop the Senedd elections where they'll probably do alright. I think this latest incarnation will stick around longer than people here think.
The last thing I thought would probably stick around longer than people generally thought on here/X was the Ukraine war and I was right on that.
We’ll see. Parliament is essentially run like the world’s biggest public school, and he’s a first year. He will hate it.
Don't think SKS will be in any rush to give up the voting system that gave him 411 seats on 34% if the national vote...
There is more to elections than maths. To win 411 seats out of the 630 you stand in involves (obviously) actually coming first in a bare knuckle and bloody cage fight which anyone can join on 411 separate occasions on the same day. Even to form a bare majority government you have to win 325 of them. And you lose even if you lose by one vote.
Anyone who can can do that in the face of the barbarian horde that makes up the UK voter deserves to win, completely regardless of what % vote they got in totality.
The case for FPTP is remarkably strong.
Horses win races even though the others run nearly as fast. You still have to win it
What a load of nonsense. There must be better arguments than this gibberish for FPTP.
I'm not sure there are any strong arguments for FPTP tbh.
I guess the strongest argument is that pretty much every single time it provides a decisive result which enables a swift change of power and give stability that will last for the next 4-5 years. Labour are able to get on with changing the direction of the country from Friday, no need for weeks / months of horse trading to try and work out a government.
Germany seem to have a reasonable comprise where they have these historic alliances which means you are pretty certain what you are getting if the right centre or right left win and they will last the parliament.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
It'd be pretty foolish. Begs all sorts of questions about whether they endorse each others programmes. And Lib Dems argue Con/RefUK aren't a genuinely national party, with implications for coverage and debates.
Tories have to either absorb or destroy RefUK. A weird compromise is the worst of all worlds.
Labour would also have a field day with 'coalition of chaos' stuff while both they and the Lib Dems would run on fear of Farage in the same way the Tories successfully ran on fear of Corbyn in 2019. Both very popular with a certain section of the electorate, but with a serious prospect of becoming PM/entering government, the rest of the country strongly will vote for whoever will keep them out.
Don't think SKS will be in any rush to give up the voting system that gave him 411 seats on 34% if the national vote...
There is more to elections than maths. To win 411 seats out of the 630 you stand in involves (obviously) actually coming first in a bare knuckle and bloody cage fight which anyone can join on 411 separate occasions on the same day. Even to form a bare majority government you have to win 325 of them. And you lose even if you lose by one vote.
Anyone who can can do that in the face of the barbarian horde that makes up the UK voter deserves to win, completely regardless of what % vote they got in totality.
The case for FPTP is remarkably strong.
Horses win races even though the others run nearly as fast. You still have to win it
What a load of nonsense. There must be better arguments than this gibberish for FPTP.
I'm not sure there are any strong arguments for FPTP tbh.
The strongest argument is that pretty much every single time it provides a decisive result which enables a swift change of power and give stability that will last for the next 4-5 years. Labour are able to get on with changing the direction of the country from Friday, no need for weeks / months of horse trading to try and work out a government.
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
That could provide perfect cover for the other parties doing the same, at least in Tory held seats.
It's effectively happened - & opposition parties are free to do whatever deals they like pre-election ! It'd put some Conservatives off voting Conservative, and not all the vote would transfer but it'd be a net benefit - mostly to the Conservatives. Aside from Llanelli Reform's Labour targets are.... quite a long way away and they're places the Tories have never won in living memory even during the Boris landslide.
For completeness here's the other Reform 2nds not facing Labour strongholds
Reform 2nd to Labour, Conservative held 2019 Whitehaven and Workington Kingston-Upon-Hull West and Haltemprice Wakefield & Rothwell Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Leigh and Atherton Bridgend Telford Blackpool South Stoke on Trent central Thurrock Dover & Deal Spen Valley Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Amber Valley
Reform 2nd to the Tories North East Cambridgeshire South Holland and the Deepings Maldon Brentwood and Ongar Louth and Horncastle Rayleigh and Wickford Isle of Wight East Hornchurch and Upminster
Reform 2nds to Labour (74)
Not sure which amused me more on that list, Hull West or Telford.
Rotherham this time, no Tory candidate and only just over a third of the Tory vote transferred to Reform - and that’s not dissimilar to what happened in areas where there was a Tory candidate! The remaining Tories don’t seem that keen to go shopping with Farage.
I think Farage would potentially buy it - it'd suit the Conservatives more though. Simon Clarke only had an 11.7% swing against him and almost held his seat with no Reform present. The Tories would be further back there if Reform had ran.
I don’t think so. He’s a wrecker who likes destroying stuff. He hoped to destroy the EU but had to settle for destroying our membership of it. Now he wants to destroy the Tories. He’s not in it for the hard graft of minority party leader, and either he sticks with it through to a denouement at the next GE, or walks away prior. Once he’s gone, it’ll fade away as UKIP did without him.
As it is, he’s going to find bobbing up and down trying to catch the speakers eye, from some uncomfortable seat at the back with his handful of colleagues, quite humiliating given the prominence he’s used to.
UKIP died on it's arse because it only got 1 MP in 2015, a one Douglas Carswell and obviously with Farage not winning it was never going to last. Brexit didn't win anything in 2019 so obviously that went pop. Winning 5 seats gives Reform a small base in parliament, next stop the Senedd elections where they'll probably do alright. I think this latest incarnation will stick around longer than people here think.
The last thing I thought would probably stick around longer than people generally thought on here/X was the Ukraine war and I was right on that.
We’ll see. Parliament is essentially run like the world’s biggest public school, and he’s a first year. He will hate it.
I don't think he'll be in there much to be perfectly honest !
The Conservatives should probably coupon the next election with Reform.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
That could provide perfect cover for the other parties doing the same, at least in Tory held seats.
It's effectively happened - & opposition parties are free to do whatever deals they like pre-election ! It'd put some Conservatives off voting Conservative, and not all the vote would transfer but it'd be a net benefit - mostly to the Conservatives. Aside from Llanelli Reform's Labour targets are.... quite a long way away and they're places the Tories have never won in living memory even during the Boris landslide.
For completeness here's the other Reform 2nds not facing Labour strongholds
Reform 2nd to Labour, Conservative held 2019 Whitehaven and Workington Kingston-Upon-Hull West and Haltemprice Wakefield & Rothwell Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Leigh and Atherton Bridgend Telford Blackpool South Stoke on Trent central Thurrock Dover & Deal Spen Valley Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Amber Valley
Reform 2nd to the Tories North East Cambridgeshire South Holland and the Deepings Maldon Brentwood and Ongar Louth and Horncastle Rayleigh and Wickford Isle of Wight East Hornchurch and Upminster
Reform 2nds to Labour (74)
Not sure which amused me more on that list, Hull West or Telford.
Rotherham this time, no Tory candidate and only just over a third of the Tory vote transferred to Reform - and that’s not dissimilar to what happened in areas where there was a Tory candidate! The remaining Tories don’t seem that keen to go shopping with Farage.
Bizarrely, Reform only stood a paper candidate in Rotherham, given you'd have thought it should be a target.
Its the most bizarre thing. There are candidates like guy in Rotherham where there is no photo or bio even on the Reform UK website, and no information of any description issued to the local press.
At the declaration there is a guy on the stage and he got 11k votes
Imagine the fun if we had a proper voting system! Mr Cronly could have won. Already we had 11k people voting for a cypher, a person who literally just exists on a ballot paper.
In a democracy this is a Bad Thing. Because i can practically guarantee that almost all of those 11k people thought they were voting for Nigel Farage. And they weren't...
Comments
I hope not.
Plenty of people suddenly deciding now is not the time after all I imagine, in a Tredeau-ish conversion.
Parrs Wood High School Manchester.
2. Lucy Powell and Lisa Nandy.
That gives Labour two terms and ten years to push through its current plans, avoids another dreaded referendum, and introduces a fairer system before the Tories are likely to have resolved their identity crisis and be back in the game, and probably at the point where voters have had enough of big majority Labour.
If by some miracle there’s pressure to go faster, then do STV for local government in the meantime.
That’s what Labour should do, if they took a mature long-term view.
(sorry!)
Any changes to the electoral system are enacted at the next but one election. Assuming that the sitting government still agrees with them.
It's not obviously on their website or twitter.
Tae think again.
Reform could get out the way of the Con fights whilst the Conservatives stand down in Reform's seats and 74 Labour strongholds where Reform is second and the Tories didn't win in 2019.
It's on the list of things that aren't going to happen but it's more likely than Labour introducing any sort of electoral reform & it's still very very likely SKS is PM after the next election whatever anyone does.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/08/james-timpson-is-the-most-dangerous-man-in-britain/
I've only seen him talk about things in one clip, but he seemed pretty realistic about things, not take a chance on anyone idealistic.
Yes he might fail but I wish him well and he deserves to succeed.
Only 1-in-10 prison sentences are for so-called “first-time offenders”, sentences hardly ever passed down for small misunderstandings or harmless misbehaviour. More than half of the prison population are there for violent or sexual offences – to say nothing of the burglars, robbers, knife carriers, or drug traffickers that some are all too quick to erroneously classify as “non-violent”.
We also know that nearly two-thirds (63 per cent) of prison sentences were handed out to criminals with seven or more previous convictions or cautions – with more than half (53 per cent) going to criminals with 11 or more previous convictions or cautions.
The question is how to change this. Something isn't working at the moment.
For completeness here's the other Reform 2nds not facing Labour strongholds
Reform 2nd to Labour, Conservative held 2019
Whitehaven and Workington
Kingston-Upon-Hull West and Haltemprice
Wakefield & Rothwell
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor
Leigh and Atherton
Bridgend
Telford
Blackpool South
Stoke on Trent central
Thurrock
Dover & Deal
Spen Valley
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
Amber Valley
Reform 2nd to the Tories
North East Cambridgeshire
South Holland and the Deepings
Maldon
Brentwood and Ongar
Louth and Horncastle
Rayleigh and Wickford
Isle of Wight East
Hornchurch and Upminster
Reform 2nds to Labour (74)
Not sure which amused me more on that list, Hull West or Telford.
Can't fault the other two choices.
Having seen the film in its original form with the comemntary it is of course now impossible for me to ay whether it is understandable without as when watching the later versions I already have the commentary in my mind.
Alot of Reform voters were as anti-Tory as anti-Labour.
Nope you haven't got it. See @TimS explanation it is better than mine. Think of it this way in half the seats there weren't NFP or Macron candidates to vote for. Here is an example:
Seat 1 Macron 1, RN 1
Seat 2 NFP 1, RN 1
RN has twice the vote of each, but has twice the opportunity. The other two only have half the opportunity.
Your logic is flawed by comparing her vote to theirs. You are comparing apples to pears. It is like saying Corbyn did an appalling job winning his seat compared to Labour because he got a lot less votes across the whole country than Labour. That is clearly nonsense as Corbyn beat Labour and he wasn't standing anywhere else. It is a daft statement.
Your logic is screwed.
Never seen him before in my life, but he knows me. He's probably about my age. He was trying to talk to me, asking if I was going to London, to which I said "yes" to, but I was too confused and busy on emails on my phone plus trying to get the train that left in 3 minutes time. So I was awkward smiling and not really making eye contact with him.
Somewhat unsettling! And I still can't work it out now.
(*obviously it was my real name and not my pb handle)
"Electoral Reform" covers a multitude of sins and while GB News has been bleating on about the inequity of the current system since Friday afternoon, it's mainly about how unfair the system is to Farage and Reform about whom I couldn't give a Tice.
If we're going to talk about electoral reform, we also need to talk about political reform. Changing the voting system achieves nothing if the political system and structure remains the same. We all know (and I say this as an LD) everyone wants the system which works best for them rather than the system which works best.
If it weren't for the fact talking about changing the political system would be as self-indulgent as talking about leaving the European Union, it would be a debate worth having but it's not the debate the public want to have. The public want the other huge problems of the country properly addressed. Get those solved and we can talk about STV ad nauseam and ad infinitum.
Oddest one I've had in years was the (presumably) drunk guy outside a railway station who asked me if I was jewish. I've no idea if he asked everyone that or just me.
But there is a case for FPTP as we did it last week. There were (I believe) two very strong collective wishes: to get rid of the Tories (75%+ agreement) and a wish for a government that was reasonably centrist. (Lab + LD + most Tories + most non voters). The latter is harder to prove, but there you are. As Reform voters wanted simple answers to complex problems, there is no point is worrying about them except that 85% of us didn't vote for them.
FPTP did the job, about as well as possible. I think AV would do it slightly better, but most other systems would do it worse.
Tories have to either absorb or destroy RefUK. A weird compromise is the worst of all worlds.
Microsoft has ordered staff in China to swap their Android devices for iPhones amid mounting security concerns.
The US technology giant has told thousands of employees in China that they must make the switch by September, becoming the latest company to tighten up protections in the country.
The move comes as Microsoft attempts to tighten up staff security after a string of cyber security blunders.
Chinese state-sponsored hackers were able to access email accounts of government employees and US companies last year after a flaw in its Microsoft Exchange software.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/08/microsoft-staff-use-iphones-china-security-fears/
*ducks form the turnip heading my way....*
I agree last Thursday was all about giving the order of the boot to the Conservatives from Government but not from existence. The verdict was nuanced enough to work fairly well - Labour didn't win too big, the Conservatives didn't lose too big. As to the lessons both (and other) parties will draw, that's for the future.
To achieve the expulsion of the Conservatives meant a number of options for voters - Labour, LD, Green or Reform. The option chosen varied, the effect of the choices varied. In a few instances, the sitting Conservative survived becayse the options chosen weren't the right ones but in 250 instances the local voters got it right.
That wasn't down to the voting system but to the options available and those trying to put forward the options.
Wonderful. Wonderful. Wonderful.
As it is, he’s going to find bobbing up and down trying to catch the speakers eye, from some uncomfortable seat at the back with his handful of colleagues, quite humiliating given the prominence he’s used to.
My wife's theory is he's someone I went to school or college with who's fallen on hard times.
These things come out the blue and can somewhat flummox you.
It made me realise I'm either a lot more memorable than I think I am, or that some people are scarily good with names and faces. This was at least 20 years after the fact.
FPTP is the best system because it's the most human.
This is beyond hilarious.
The last thing I thought would probably stick around longer than people generally thought on here/X was the Ukraine war and I was right on that.
Anyone who can can do that in the face of the barbarian horde that makes up the UK voter deserves to win, completely regardless of what % vote they got in totality.
The case for FPTP is remarkably strong.
Horses win races even though the others run nearly as fast. You still have to win it
The more the merrier. Real life is about working with people you don't like to get things done. If the Tories are the thing that gets STV done, then fantastic!
That is of course assuming the Tories are actually real. Some of their 2019 intake may also have been AI - that Jill Mortimer never went to Hartlepool as an example...
It is amazing what people can retain randomly even when slugging the rum at 7am.
Landed in Moscow. Looking forward to further deepening the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between our nations, especially in futuristic areas of cooperation. Stronger ties between our nations will greatly benefit our people.
https://x.com/narendramodi/status/1810291414623748200
Modi is a truly nasty piece of work.
I was the one doing the disturbing calling out of her full name. She gave me a big hug.
We had both become connected to the NE by marriage.
We've met up on a couple of occasions since.
Biden will be holding a “big boy press conference” according to his press secretary.
What a hilarious country America has become!
You could have a Huawei phone, with a HiSilicon chipset, and the Huawei app store, and turn on every security feature, don't install anything but the Microsoft Authenticator app, and remove every other app shipped with the phone. You would still have to implictly trust Huawei as the phone manufacturer, the designer of the key chips, and as the provider of the app store and all scanning and signing of apps. That's the issue for Microsoft, not side-loading or third-party app stores, both of which they could easily disable with their MDM software.
Edit. Almost exact snap!
Germany seem to have a reasonable comprise where they have these historic alliances which means you are pretty certain what you are getting if the right centre or right left win and they will last the parliament.
The 2010 coalition was sorted in just a few days.
At the declaration there is a guy on the stage and he got 11k votes
Imagine the fun if we had a proper voting system! Mr Cronly could have won. Already we had 11k people voting for a cypher, a person who literally just exists on a ballot paper.
In a democracy this is a Bad Thing. Because i can practically guarantee that almost all of those 11k people thought they were voting for Nigel Farage. And they weren't...