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The Liz Truss legacy in one chart – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 7 in General
The Liz Truss legacy in one chart – politicalbetting.com

Interesting election detail from @drjennings?The more mortgage payers in a constituency, the more the swing away from the Conservatives.The Truss effect?Might the Tories have done better had @RishiSunak not called the election before @bankofengland began cutting rates…????? pic.twitter.com/lGK9EqyOt1

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  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229
    Lowess smoother?
  • Options
    IcarusIcarus Posts: 952
    edited July 7
    Second - actually possibly like the Liberal Democrats in 2029
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707

    Lowess smoother?

    Statistical thingmabob.

    https://www.statisticshowto.com/lowess-smoothing/
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763
    FPT
    pigeon said:

    Interesting graphic,

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809205248654762165

    Turned out there wasn't really any difference between genders and how they voted. Also Labour didn't do as well with 18-24 as previously, which I thought was quite surprising. Seems like good chunk of young people keen to vote Green instead of Labour. Also, 22% voted Tory or Reform, which perhaps backs up what Leon was banging on about at least a tiny bit.

    Tories did really really badly with 25-44. I bet rents / mortgages / student loans. That could be a huge problem for them going forward if they want to try and recover.

    Not much sign of the Hot Young Fascist phenomenon there.

    Sorry for those who enjoy that prospect.
    Do we have data on how efficiently the Farage Tik Tok phenomenon actually converted into youth votes?
    Not as efficiently as if 16 and 17 year olds had got the vote from all I hear from school mock elections.

  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    There's a fair amount of shit talked about the minibudget, but some of the worst is that it was responsible for bank rates rising. I mean wtf?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    Lowess smoother?

    It's a more sophisticated, but computationally intensive, way of calculating a line of best fit, that has become popular in recent years.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,476
    edited July 7
    Labour are going to suffer the interest rate bomb on mortgages however hard they try to blame it on the Tories.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    edited July 7

    Lowess smoother?

    You look at the data in small slices. Within each small slice, you fit a linear regression line. You then piece together all those bits. This allows you to get a wobbly line that fits close to the data without having to make assumptions about the relationship being broadly linear or whatever. There are two very similar methods: LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) and LOWESS (add in a “w” for weighted).
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639

    Lowess smoother?

    It's a more sophisticated, but computationally intensive, way of calculating a line of best fit, that has become popular in recent years.
    You'd get a similar result doing it by eye.

  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    On the chart, it doesn't look like that strong a correlation. I am unconvinced.

    It's more notable that she had the highest Conservative to Labour swing against her in her constituency. The people of South West Norfolk performed a great service on behalf of the rest of the country.
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    johntjohnt Posts: 166
    Icarus said:

    Second - actually possibly like the Liberal Democrats in 2029

    Why would they not be aiming for first? The key for the non Labour parties is to spend the next five years being seen as the rightful home for those this new government will naturally let down. The Tories are unlikely to be functioning well enough to do it, so the Lib Dem’s and reform will see an opportunity.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    Labour are going to suffer the interest rate bomb on mortgages however hard they try to blame it on the Tories.

    If all we are going to get is Private Frazer pontificating from sore losers, it might be time to retune the dial to ConHome.

    Of course you may all be correct but 48 hours on, surely the jury should still be out.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    Lowess smoother?

    It's a more sophisticated, but computationally intensive, way of calculating a line of best fit, that has become popular in recent years.
    You'd get a similar result doing it by eye.
    That's the basic intention, yes. But when the computer does it then you can also get it to tell you what the first derivative is, and that can be the really interesting bit, and that's harder to do by eye.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    edited July 7

    There's a fair amount of shit talked about the minibudget, but some of the worst is that it was responsible for bank rates rising. I mean wtf?

    Because it was. Bank rates are now where they would have been ex the budget but the Truss budget pushed up yields (Future interest rate expectations) more quickly than they would have done that fixed mortgages are based on which screwed over loads of remortgages and trashed the Conservatives economic reputation further. The fact Sunak was probably correct (Look at long yields now) that we will, and I really do touch wood when I say this, start heading into a cutting cycle is neither here nor there to the minds of most voters particularly as the June rate cut never came.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    Oh. This is the new thread !

    Good morning everyone.

    Good night, Fizzie-Lizzie.

    I hope you now do as you have been told by the voters.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677

    FPT

    pigeon said:

    Interesting graphic,

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809205248654762165

    Turned out there wasn't really any difference between genders and how they voted. Also Labour didn't do as well with 18-24 as previously, which I thought was quite surprising. Seems like good chunk of young people keen to vote Green instead of Labour. Also, 22% voted Tory or Reform, which perhaps backs up what Leon was banging on about at least a tiny bit.

    Tories did really really badly with 25-44. I bet rents / mortgages / student loans. That could be a huge problem for them going forward if they want to try and recover.

    Not much sign of the Hot Young Fascist phenomenon there.

    Sorry for those who enjoy that prospect.
    Do we have data on how efficiently the Farage Tik Tok phenomenon actually converted into youth votes?
    Not as efficiently as if 16 and 17 year olds had got the vote from all I hear from school mock elections.

    The key word there is "mock". Have you ever heard of teenagers choosing the most shocking option to make a scene? Especially when forced to participate in something?

    Going off the Ashcroft polling earlier in this conversation, Reform are pretty unpopular with young people who are old enough to actually vote. I guess it's possible that there will be a massive jump feeding through in the next two years, but I'm not convinced.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    On the chart, it doesn't look like that strong a correlation. I am unconvinced.

    It's more notable that she had the highest Conservative to Labour swing against her in her constituency. The people of South West Norfolk performed a great service on behalf of the rest of the country.

    They'd met her.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    Farooq said:

    Since I'm not on Twitter I cannot see whether there is a link to the source data in the thread. Since @LostPassword says they are unconvinced by the strength of the correlation, I can run a calculation on the strength of correlation, if the source data is available. If someone wouldn't mind checking to see if there's a link to the data in the thread, I'd be grateful.

    Qualitatively the y axis shows the change in Labour share. Which doesn't make much sense to me
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    FPT

    pigeon said:

    Interesting graphic,

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809205248654762165

    Turned out there wasn't really any difference between genders and how they voted. Also Labour didn't do as well with 18-24 as previously, which I thought was quite surprising. Seems like good chunk of young people keen to vote Green instead of Labour. Also, 22% voted Tory or Reform, which perhaps backs up what Leon was banging on about at least a tiny bit.

    Tories did really really badly with 25-44. I bet rents / mortgages / student loans. That could be a huge problem for them going forward if they want to try and recover.

    Not much sign of the Hot Young Fascist phenomenon there.

    Sorry for those who enjoy that prospect.
    Do we have data on how efficiently the Farage Tik Tok phenomenon actually converted into youth votes?
    Not as efficiently as if 16 and 17 year olds had got the vote from all I hear from school mock elections.

    Ah yes, I remember the 1992 school mock election at biddenham upper school in Bedford.

    The victory of the Green Party was an early indicator of... something
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032

    FPT

    pigeon said:

    Interesting graphic,

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809205248654762165

    Turned out there wasn't really any difference between genders and how they voted. Also Labour didn't do as well with 18-24 as previously, which I thought was quite surprising. Seems like good chunk of young people keen to vote Green instead of Labour. Also, 22% voted Tory or Reform, which perhaps backs up what Leon was banging on about at least a tiny bit.

    Tories did really really badly with 25-44. I bet rents / mortgages / student loans. That could be a huge problem for them going forward if they want to try and recover.

    Not much sign of the Hot Young Fascist phenomenon there.

    Sorry for those who enjoy that prospect.
    Do we have data on how efficiently the Farage Tik Tok phenomenon actually converted into youth votes?
    Not as efficiently as if 16 and 17 year olds had got the vote from all I hear from school mock elections.

    As good a reason as any to not let the racist scum have the vote....
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    Does that chart actually show what it says it does ?
    Doesn’t look very correlated to me.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    Since it's Sunday morning, how many Cathedrals are left in Conservative constituencies?

    My hunch is that most of them are either in big urban centres (Labour) or delightful little towns (Liberal).

    The first exception I can think of is Salisbury, but that's got an almost perfect Lib:Lab split letting the Conservatives through on the right but on a pretty low share.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 7
    @Taz is popular today. Made my twitter feed. :wink:

    Loving it.
    Just been called a "smug Southern arse" by a chappie from Sunderland.

    😇
    https://x.com/mattwardman/status/1809677284284198915
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763

    Since it's Sunday morning, how many Cathedrals are left in Conservative constituencies?

    My hunch is that most of them are either in big urban centres (Labour) or delightful little towns (Liberal).

    The first exception I can think of is Salisbury, but that's got an almost perfect Lib:Lab split letting the Conservatives through on the right but on a pretty low share.

    Da
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    I have my doubts about the Tories benefiting from interest rates being cut later on this year as it would have left mortgage costs still higher than the autumn of 2022.

    If people have moved from one fixed deal to a higher rate fixed deal, cuts in the short term would not help them either.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    pigeon said:

    Interesting graphic,

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809205248654762165

    Turned out there wasn't really any difference between genders and how they voted. Also Labour didn't do as well with 18-24 as previously, which I thought was quite surprising. Seems like good chunk of young people keen to vote Green instead of Labour. Also, 22% voted Tory or Reform, which perhaps backs up what Leon was banging on about at least a tiny bit.

    Tories did really really badly with 25-44. I bet rents / mortgages / student loans. That could be a huge problem for them going forward if they want to try and recover.

    Not much sign of the Hot Young Fascist phenomenon there.

    Sorry for those who enjoy that prospect.
    Do we have data on how efficiently the Farage Tik Tok phenomenon actually converted into youth votes?
    One of my stranger post GE election chats was with one of our admin staff, a forty-something British born Sikh. She didn't vote, not feeling as if she understood enough about politics to do so. She did tell me that her 12 year old daughter was telling her to vote Reform, having seen them on TikTok. Her face fell when I told her that was Farage's bunch.

    Never underestimate the power of Social Media on low information voters.

    I am on TikTok, and was impressed by both the Labour and LD efforts, but also saw quite a few Reform ones. I am not sure if that was the alogarithm spying on me, or paid advertising.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    MattW said:

    @Taz is popular today. Made my twitter feed. :wink:

    Loving it.
    Just been called a "smug Southern arse" by a chappie from Sunderland.

    😇
    https://x.com/mattwardman/status/1809677284284198915

    My grandfather's ghost just clapped.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 11,138
    The BBC is often criticised for their election reporting which I have tended to not agree with, but this time I will agree it was dire. On the night two of us were feeding back results to our party in the LD office. I was using PB the other was using Sky. We were consistently 10 min ahead of the BBC which we had on the TV.

    And this morning the BBC were still reporting the LDs have 71 seats and not 72.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    edited July 7

    There's a fair amount of shit talked about the minibudget, but some of the worst is that it was responsible for bank rates rising. I mean wtf?

    There's a discussion here on this topic. TLDR; It's complicated but as a simple fact fixed rate mortgages went from 4% to 6% during Truss' 40 days in office when there wasn't another factor to explain that particular rise.

    https://news.sky.com/story/how-much-is-liz-truss-to-blame-for-expensive-mortgages-and-higher-interest-rates-13151551
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT

    pigeon said:

    Interesting graphic,

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809205248654762165

    Turned out there wasn't really any difference between genders and how they voted. Also Labour didn't do as well with 18-24 as previously, which I thought was quite surprising. Seems like good chunk of young people keen to vote Green instead of Labour. Also, 22% voted Tory or Reform, which perhaps backs up what Leon was banging on about at least a tiny bit.

    Tories did really really badly with 25-44. I bet rents / mortgages / student loans. That could be a huge problem for them going forward if they want to try and recover.

    Not much sign of the Hot Young Fascist phenomenon there.

    Sorry for those who enjoy that prospect.
    Do we have data on how efficiently the Farage Tik Tok phenomenon actually converted into youth votes?
    Not as efficiently as if 16 and 17 year olds had got the vote from all I hear from school mock elections.

    Ah yes, I remember the 1992 school mock election at biddenham upper school in Bedford.

    The victory of the Green Party was an early indicator of... something
    The days when Bedford still had proper schools (lower middle and upper) like we still do in Central Beds (except Houghton Regis).
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    @Taz is popular today. Made my twitter feed. :wink:

    Loving it.
    Just been called a "smug Southern arse" by a chappie from Sunderland.

    😇
    https://x.com/mattwardman/status/1809677284284198915

    My grandfather's ghost just clapped.
    BH that was quick.

    Tried to delete it, because he might be from Washington.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    ydoethur said:

    I have my doubts about the Tories benefiting from interest rates being cut later on this year as it would have left mortgage costs still higher than the autumn of 2022.

    If people have moved from one fixed deal to a higher rate fixed deal, cuts in the short term would not help them either.

    And the mortgage jump was going to happen sooner or later; the worst that can be said for Truss-Kwarteng is that they made it go a bit higher and a bit faster. But that's politics for you; what happens on your watch is your fault, even when it isn't.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    edited July 7

    FPT

    pigeon said:

    Interesting graphic,

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809205248654762165

    Turned out there wasn't really any difference between genders and how they voted. Also Labour didn't do as well with 18-24 as previously, which I thought was quite surprising. Seems like good chunk of young people keen to vote Green instead of Labour. Also, 22% voted Tory or Reform, which perhaps backs up what Leon was banging on about at least a tiny bit.

    Tories did really really badly with 25-44. I bet rents / mortgages / student loans. That could be a huge problem for them going forward if they want to try and recover.

    Not much sign of the Hot Young Fascist phenomenon there.

    Sorry for those who enjoy that prospect.
    Do we have data on how efficiently the Farage Tik Tok phenomenon actually converted into youth votes?
    Not as efficiently as if 16 and 17 year olds had got the vote from all I hear from school mock elections.

    The key word there is "mock". Have you ever heard of teenagers choosing the most shocking option to make a scene? Especially when forced to participate in something?

    Going off the Ashcroft polling earlier in this conversation, Reform are pretty unpopular with young people who are old enough to actually vote. I guess it's possible that there will be a massive jump feeding through in the next two years, but I'm not convinced.
    I remember a school survey in my middle class comprehensive in Winchester in 1981 on drug use. According to the survey we were all coke, acid and smack heads. In reality the hardest drugs being used were cheap cider and Marlboro, and a bit of glue.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    Farooq said:

    Since it's Sunday morning, how many Cathedrals are left in Conservative constituencies?

    My hunch is that most of them are either in big urban centres (Labour) or delightful little towns (Liberal).

    The first exception I can think of is Salisbury, but that's got an almost perfect Lib:Lab split letting the Conservatives through on the right but on a pretty low share.

    Arundel
    If we're doing catholic ones, there's Brentwood I suppose.
    But looking at those Arundel figures- again an almost perfect split of Lib and Lab. Not quite enough to beat the Conservatives, but close.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    On topic: You'd want to dig into this a lot further. One thing to take account of is that the number of people with mortgages has been squeezed under the Conservatives, with more renters and outright owners than before. I would guess that changes in housing tenure by constituency will be a stronger predictor of swing than tenure itself.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    This could be a case of correlation being only partially causation.

    The higher the mortgage paying proportion of the population, the lower the average age. So it could be the age stratification of the vote that accounts for the pattern.

    But the age stratification of the vote is at least partly affected by housing affordability.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    edited July 7

    On the chart, it doesn't look like that strong a correlation. I am unconvinced.

    It's more notable that she had the highest Conservative to Labour swing against her in her constituency. The people of South West Norfolk performed a great service on behalf of the rest of the country.

    Other, possibly better fitted, correlations are likely to be rents - which have gone through the roof and are linked to mortgage rates - and age - if you are older you are less likely to have a mortgage.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Richardr said:

    Interest rates would have gone up somewhat Liz Truss or not. The rise in inflation was at least initiated by the Ukraine war, and the BoE would have had to raise rates once that seeped into domestic prices, as had happened elsewhere.

    The other point of note is that even if the base rate falls later this year, most are on fixed rate deals and as they get renewed the rates paid will be higher than the existing rates. There are still a lot of mortgage rises to come.

    The interest rate rises in the last 18 months really have virtually nothing to do with Truss. She carried the blame as a useful scapegoat. Her policies would have been fiscally disastrous but they never actually got implemented.

    The damage Truss and Kwarteng did was to investor confidence in the UK and our reputation for economic stability. That’s one thing Hunt has managed to stabilise since.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    ydoethur said:

    I have my doubts about the Tories benefiting from interest rates being cut later on this year as it would have left mortgage costs still higher than the autumn of 2022.

    If people have moved from one fixed deal to a higher rate fixed deal, cuts in the short term would not help them either.

    Yep - it didn’t really matter much whether their parachute had three holes or four - they were on the way out. Truss merely added to the already well established “incompetent” image. At least she left us with a vivid metaphor, her City nickname - “Daggers” as in Dagenham, three stops beyond Barking.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    There you go again, assuming a completely unproven link between lack of charisma and efficiency. Some people have neither. The last incumbent being a good example.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,280
    @MattW he’s right though. Washington might be within the redrawn “Sunderland City Council” control area but it is not Sunderland.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    edited July 7
    Good morning

    The highlight of the election for me was Truss getting the red card, along with JRM, from their electorate

    I would give a stern warning to the conservative party to be very careful who you appoint as leader, and certainly any idea the toxic Braverman is the one is simply ridiculous

    Watching Starmer ease into the role he looks like a PM and he has a carbon copy 'Blairite' cabinet

    He has been well received by fellow leaders and any idea labour are going to become very unpopular anytime soon is plain wishful thinking

    In Streeting Labour have a health secretary, whose first statement in office was the NHS is broken, who is impressive but will the unions be on the same page

    My only reservation is just what effect Farage will have in the HOC not least he was the catalyst in the EU for Brexit and is not to be underestimated not least as the media have found a new pin up memorable of the days of Johnson

    Anyway good that the GE is behind us and English fans can delight in winning on penalties whilst being rubbish in normal play !!!
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    I was thinking this about Kemi Badenoch. She has plenty of energy, a good thing, which never seems to be directed towards anything useful, except possibly her self-promotion. She might make an OK LOTO as they don't have to do anything but not sure it takes the Conservatives in the direction they need to go. Question for them I suppose.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    May I join in the chorus.

    Reform Uk is the Party of childish politics, of wishful thinking. Farage is an essentially unserious politician, in it for the laughs.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    On the chart, it doesn't look like that strong a correlation. I am unconvinced.

    It's more notable that she had the highest Conservative to Labour swing against her in her constituency. The people of South West Norfolk performed a great service on behalf of the rest of the country.

    They'd met her.
    @PeterAl40121873
    Jul 2
    I am picking up a sense that however much the rest of Britain may dislike Truss, there are people in SW Norfolk who have disliked her longer, harder & with greater specificity. By a stroke of good fortune, these are also the people who actually get a vote on her future.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    There you go again, assuming a completely unproven link between lack of charisma and efficiency. Some people have neither. The last incumbent being a good example.
    OTOH some people get elected on charisma rather than efficiency. Which in itself generates the necessary negative correlation, tbf to the OP. I'm sure you can think of at least one recent example.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    TimS said:

    This could be a case of correlation being only partially causation.

    The higher the mortgage paying proportion of the population, the lower the average age. So it could be the age stratification of the vote that accounts for the pattern.

    But the age stratification of the vote is at least partly affected by housing affordability.

    Though housing affordability is affected by both prices and the price of borrowing. Higher interest rates will suppress price rises, even as it increases the cost of finance. I have a theory that people will spend half their net income on housing whatever.

    The best times for housing affordability are when interest rates are dropping following some years of being high (late eighties and again late noughties), and worst when interest rates are rising following a period of being low (early eighties, early nineties, now). The shift to fixed rate mortgages alters things in terms of speed of adjustment.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    Richardr said:

    Interest rates would have gone up somewhat Liz Truss or not. The rise in inflation was at least initiated by the Ukraine war, and the BoE would have had to raise rates once that seeped into domestic prices, as had happened elsewhere.

    The other point of note is that even if the base rate falls later this year, most are on fixed rate deals and as they get renewed the rates paid will be higher than the existing rates. There are still a lot of mortgage rises to come.

    Which is reportedly - I don't know if it is true - the reason for Mr Sunak's panic move to call an election. (Yet he must have known that for a year at least. It was being discussed on PB that sort of time ago.)
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    May I join in the chorus.

    Reform Uk is the Party of childish politics, of wishful thinking. Farage is an essentially unserious politician, in it for the laughs.
    True to an extent but Farage did bring Brexit and should not be underestimated
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    edited July 7
    I think Dowden was wrong angsting about mortgage rates continuing to rise for those whose fixed terms were coming to an end because it is only looking at a part of the picture. Interest rates went up because inflation was up. Because inflation was up wages rose by a peak of around 7%. They are still rising at nearly 6% now.

    When we first bought our house things were tight. We had stretched ourselves to our limit and there was very little money left each month. But, within a few years, things got easier as nominal wages rose. Interest rates were much more volatile in the late 80s and early 90s than they are now and fixed deals were a rarity then which gave our mortgage an instant response to changes in rates. But, as time went by and the nominal wages increased this mattered less and less.

    Inflation is a friend to those with large fixed debts, the real value of the debt declines and the asset tends to appreciate in comparison.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Richardr said:

    Interest rates would have gone up somewhat Liz Truss or not. The rise in inflation was at least initiated by the Ukraine war, and the BoE would have had to raise rates once that seeped into domestic prices, as had happened elsewhere.

    The other point of note is that even if the base rate falls later this year, most are on fixed rate deals and as they get renewed the rates paid will be higher than the existing rates. There are still a lot of mortgage rises to come.

    This is where Liz Truss was right, that a lot of conventional analysis was rubbish, including widespread calls for the Bank of England to raise interest rates and tighten the money supply to tackle inflation, as if we were back in the 1980s. As you say, inflation rose due not to increased demand but rather to supply-side shocks from the SMO and its fallout.

    The Bank of England might have needed to raise interest rates to defend the pound's exchange rate but that is a separate consideration.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    TimS said:

    Richardr said:

    Interest rates would have gone up somewhat Liz Truss or not. The rise in inflation was at least initiated by the Ukraine war, and the BoE would have had to raise rates once that seeped into domestic prices, as had happened elsewhere.

    The other point of note is that even if the base rate falls later this year, most are on fixed rate deals and as they get renewed the rates paid will be higher than the existing rates. There are still a lot of mortgage rises to come.

    The interest rate rises in the last 18 months really have virtually nothing to do with Truss. She carried the blame as a useful scapegoat. Her policies would have been fiscally disastrous but they never actually got implemented.

    The damage Truss and Kwarteng did was to investor confidence in the UK and our reputation for economic stability. That’s one thing Hunt has managed to stabilise since.
    Tory members would be wise to note that Hunt held his seat against stiff odds, while Truss lost hers.

    I am not expecting them to be wise.
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    @Taz is popular today. Made my twitter feed. :wink:

    Loving it.
    Just been called a "smug Southern arse" by a chappie from Sunderland.

    😇
    https://x.com/mattwardman/status/1809677284284198915

    My grandfather's ghost just clapped.
    BH that was quick.

    Tried to delete it, because he might be from Washington.
    Chester-le-street actually 😉

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    May I join in the chorus.

    Reform Uk is the Party of childish politics, of wishful thinking. Farage is an essentially unserious politician, in it for the laughs.
    True to an extent but Farage did bring Brexit and should not be underestimated
    Boris brought Brexit. Farage nearly derailed it at the end with his one-man poster campaign.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    May I join in the chorus.

    Reform Uk is the Party of childish politics, of wishful thinking. Farage is an essentially unserious politician, in it for the laughs.
    True to an extent but Farage did bring Brexit and should not be underestimated
    Boris brought Brexit. Farage nearly derailed it at the end with his one-man poster campaign.
    The catalyst was Farage in the EU and Boris saw an opportunity
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 7

    Since it's Sunday morning, how many Cathedrals are left in Conservative constituencies?

    My hunch is that most of them are either in big urban centres (Labour) or delightful little towns (Liberal).

    The first exception I can think of is Salisbury, but that's got an almost perfect Lib:Lab split letting the Conservatives through on the right but on a pretty low share.

    Da
    My pain au chocolat is thawing for 2 minutes, so with the first wake-me-up coffee, I make it very very roughly.

    Remaining Tory Cathedrals:

    Chester? (I think - not sure which Constituency it is in).
    Hereford
    Leicester? Could be Indy or Lab - not sure which Constituency @Foxy .
    Ripon
    Salisbury
    Southwell

    Independent Cathedrals

    Birmingham (which Constituency?)
    Wakefield

    I think that's it. Corrections welcome.

    (Arundel edited out - that's Roman Catholic)
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    I'm not convinced by that graph. The correlation is weak, and created almost entirely by a handful of seats where very few people have mortgages. Thus something else almost certainly explains their sitting bottom left.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    A cautious-to-optimistic welcome to the new government from an industrial strategy thinker:

    https://x.com/richardaljones/status/1809546173637599279?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    Notes the appointment of Vallance as particularly significant.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    May I join in the chorus.

    Reform Uk is the Party of childish politics, of wishful thinking. Farage is an essentially unserious politician, in it for the laughs.
    Not laughs. He is a very negative person who constantly runs down our country.

    His policies never bear real scrutiny as a result, and that will be a real problem for Reform. If they adopt realistic policies they will die, if they stick to the fatuous and superficial ones then they will have a small audience amongst the disgruntled but never have power.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    May I join in the chorus.

    Reform Uk is the Party of childish politics, of wishful thinking. Farage is an essentially unserious politician, in it for the laughs.
    True to an extent but Farage did bring Brexit and should not be underestimated
    Boris brought Brexit. Farage nearly derailed it at the end with his one-man poster campaign.
    The catalyst was Farage in the EU and Boris saw an opportunity
    Farage was - and, er, remains - too toxic to deliver anything on his own.

    Brexit - Boris = Remain
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    IanB2 said:

    I'm not convinced by that graph. The correlation is weak, and created almost entirely by a handful of seats where very few people have mortgages. Thus something else almost certainly explains their sitting bottom left.

    People with mortgages aren't very young, poor, or retired. I think you would need to control for these factors and say, all else equal, these mortgage holders went Lab/LD more than this control group.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    This could be a case of correlation being only partially causation.

    The higher the mortgage paying proportion of the population, the lower the average age. So it could be the age stratification of the vote that accounts for the pattern.

    But the age stratification of the vote is at least partly affected by housing affordability.

    Though housing affordability is affected by both prices and the price of borrowing. Higher interest rates will suppress price rises, even as it increases the cost of finance. I have a theory that people will spend half their net income on housing whatever.

    The best times for housing affordability are when interest rates are dropping following some years of being high (late eighties and again late noughties), and worst when interest rates are rising following a period of being low (early eighties, early nineties, now). The shift to fixed rate mortgages alters things in terms of speed of adjustment.
    Talking of the best times for housing affordability, it’ll be interesting to see what happens when Britain finally follows the demographic lead of Japan, Italy and Eastern Europe and our population starts shrinking.

    If those places are anything to go by house prices will remain robust enough in prime urban or holiday locations but tumble elsewhere.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    May I join in the chorus.

    Reform Uk is the Party of childish politics, of wishful thinking. Farage is an essentially unserious politician, in it for the laughs.
    True to an extent but Farage did bring Brexit and should not be underestimated
    And what was Brexit but a fantasy project?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733

    Richardr said:

    Interest rates would have gone up somewhat Liz Truss or not. The rise in inflation was at least initiated by the Ukraine war, and the BoE would have had to raise rates once that seeped into domestic prices, as had happened elsewhere.

    The other point of note is that even if the base rate falls later this year, most are on fixed rate deals and as they get renewed the rates paid will be higher than the existing rates. There are still a lot of mortgage rises to come.

    This is where Liz Truss was right, that a lot of conventional analysis was rubbish, including widespread calls for the Bank of England to raise interest rates and tighten the money supply to tackle inflation, as if we were back in the 1980s. As you say, inflation rose due not to increased demand but rather to supply-side shocks from the SMO and its fallout.

    The Bank of England might have needed to raise interest rates to defend the pound's exchange rate but that is a separate consideration.
    It actually makes Government stimulating economic growth almost impossible. If the economy grows, the Bank will attack it, using interest rates, which will also have a profound fiscal effect, because the Treasury pays for the interest the BOE pays out to commercial banks on their QE holdings. They can also sell bonds at a loss, which the Government also has to bail them out for.

    The only way to grow the economy therefore is to increase supply. Of energy, food, housing. When you do that, you grow and don't inflate.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048

    Good morning

    The highlight of the election for me was Truss getting the red card, along with JRM, from their electorate

    I would give a stern warning to the conservative party to be very careful who you appoint as leader, and certainly any idea the toxic Braverman is the one is simply ridiculous

    Watching Starmer ease into the role he looks like a PM and he has a carbon copy 'Blairite' cabinet

    He has been well received by fellow leaders and any idea labour are going to become very unpopular anytime soon is plain wishful thinking

    In Streeting Labour have a health secretary, whose first statement in office was the NHS is broken, who is impressive but will the unions be on the same page

    My only reservation is just what effect Farage will have in the HOC not least he was the catalyst in the EU for Brexit and is not to be underestimated not least as the media have found a new pin up memorable of the days of Johnson

    Anyway good that the GE is behind us and English fans can delight in winning on penalties whilst being rubbish in normal play !!!

    There are parallels between England and Labour.

    Years of expectations being dashed. Uninspiring but quietly effective leader comes in and improves results, but is very boring and doesn't really seem to have any ideas for going on the attack or doing interesting things. Runs a safety first strategy that leaves fans uninspired. But when it actually comes down to it, they're able to grind out a win. For now :lol:
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543

    Lowess smoother?

    It's a more sophisticated, but computationally intensive, way of calculating a line of best fit, that has become popular in recent years.
    It wasn't bank rates that were raised, it was gilt rates because the country was considered a poorer risk with less responsible finances. But it was a fairly short term phenomenon, largely fixed by Hunt's budget before Truss had even resigned.

    What was much more damaging to the government was the loss of the perception of economic competence. In that respect it was like another Black Wednesday, something which the Major government never recovered from, despite the excellent work of Ken Clarke.
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    MattW said:

    Since it's Sunday morning, how many Cathedrals are left in Conservative constituencies?

    My hunch is that most of them are either in big urban centres (Labour) or delightful little towns (Liberal).

    The first exception I can think of is Salisbury, but that's got an almost perfect Lib:Lab split letting the Conservatives through on the right but on a pretty low share.

    Da
    My pain au chocolat is thawing for 2 minutes, so with the first wake-me-up coffee, I make it very very roughly.

    Remaining Tory Cathedrals:

    Chester? (I think - not sure which Constituency it is in).
    Hereford
    Leicester? Could be Indy or Lab - not sure which Constituency @Foxy .
    Ripon
    Salisbury
    Southwell

    Independent Cathedrals

    Birmingham (which Constituency?)
    Wakefield

    I think that's it. Corrections welcome.

    (Arundel edited out - that's Roman Catholic)
    https://x.com/drphiliplee1/status/1809537723180486715?s=61
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247
    FF43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    I was thinking this about Kemi Badenoch. She has plenty of energy, a good thing, which never seems to be directed towards anything useful, except possibly her self-promotion. She might make an OK LOTO as they don't have to do anything but not sure it takes the Conservatives in the direction they need to go. Question for them I suppose.
    Badenochs popularity is a puzzle. She doesn’t come across very well. Somewhat pompous and narrowly party political. Not someone anyone could warm to outside the confines of the Tory party. Can’t think of a Labour equivalent, maybe a more ideological and less charismatic Ed Milliband.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    Farooq said:

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    May I join in the chorus.

    Reform Uk is the Party of childish politics, of wishful thinking. Farage is an essentially unserious politician, in it for the laughs.
    True to an extent but Farage did bring Brexit and should not be underestimated
    A careful reading of their manifesto shows us that underestimating him his impossible. It was the worst policy platform of any party and would see the economy curl up and die. Surprised fewer people talked about it, but therein lies the truth. Farage is a wrecking ball, not a builder. You vote for him if you prefer a pile of rubble over what we have now.
    I have no doubt you are correct, but the rise of Reform and the right in Europe is not something easily dismissed
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    MattW said:

    Since it's Sunday morning, how many Cathedrals are left in Conservative constituencies?

    My hunch is that most of them are either in big urban centres (Labour) or delightful little towns (Liberal).

    The first exception I can think of is Salisbury, but that's got an almost perfect Lib:Lab split letting the Conservatives through on the right but on a pretty low share.

    Da
    My pain au chocolat is thawing for 2 minutes, so with the first wake-me-up coffee, I make it very very roughly.

    Remaining Tory Cathedrals:

    Chester? (I think - not sure which Constituency it is in).
    Hereford
    Leicester? Could be Indy or Lab - not sure which Constituency @Foxy .
    Ripon
    Salisbury
    Southwell

    Independent Cathedrals

    Birmingham (which Constituency?)
    Wakefield

    I think that's it. Corrections welcome.

    (Arundel edited out - that's Roman Catholic)
    I think Leicester Cathedral is in Leicester South, so Independent.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited July 7
    johnt said:

    Icarus said:

    Second - actually possibly like the Liberal Democrats in 2029

    Why would they not be aiming for first? The key for the non Labour parties is to spend the next five years being seen as the rightful home for those this new government will naturally let down. The Tories are unlikely to be functioning well enough to do it, so the Lib Dem’s and reform will see an opportunity.
    There's a question over whether you can present yourself as an alternative government with fewer than a hundred MPs? - but the third party's position is certainly a lot more credible than was advancing Jo Swinson for PM.

    If the next government isn't a Labour one, someone needs to win a lot of currently held Labour seats. The LibDems are remarkably badly placed to win any of them.

    Next time, either the Tories recover and win Labour seats, or Reform breaks through in the batch where they are currently second to Labour, or Labour holds most of them and stays in power. There are probably just a very few where the Greens might come through, as observed on the previous thread (remember some PB'ers argued that a Green vote share of 6-7% was never going to happen; it just did).

    Almost as a separate election, there will be a battle between the Tories and LibDems in the south - will the Tories reverse the LibDem surge, or will the LibDems supplant the Tories as part of the Home Counties? That will be a fascinating question, almost entirely a sideshow as far as the government that follows is concerned.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Richardr said:

    Interest rates would have gone up somewhat Liz Truss or not. The rise in inflation was at least initiated by the Ukraine war, and the BoE would have had to raise rates once that seeped into domestic prices, as had happened elsewhere.

    The other point of note is that even if the base rate falls later this year, most are on fixed rate deals and as they get renewed the rates paid will be higher than the existing rates. There are still a lot of mortgage rises to come.

    The interest rate rises in the last 18 months really have virtually nothing to do with Truss. She carried the blame as a useful scapegoat. Her policies would have been fiscally disastrous but they never actually got implemented.

    The damage Truss and Kwarteng did was to investor confidence in the UK and our reputation for economic stability. That’s one thing Hunt has managed to stabilise since.
    Tory members would be wise to note that Hunt held his seat against stiff odds, while Truss lost hers.

    I am not expecting them to be wise.
    I’m still perplexed as to why Hunt fought his seat so hard and with so much of his own money. The job obviously meant a huge amount to him.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    And.. they’re off….

    Robert Jenrick is the first leadership contender to break cover. He says the last government “insulted the public” by failing to deal with immigration. He sets out his stall here:

    https://x.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1809859466612838845
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    May I join in the chorus.

    Reform Uk is the Party of childish politics, of wishful thinking. Farage is an essentially unserious politician, in it for the laughs.
    True to an extent but Farage did bring Brexit and should not be underestimated
    And what was Brexit but a fantasy project?
    Hardly a fantasy as we are out of the EU and Starmer has said we will not rejoin in his lifetime
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    May I join in the chorus.

    Reform Uk is the Party of childish politics, of wishful thinking. Farage is an essentially unserious politician, in it for the laughs.
    True to an extent but Farage did bring Brexit and should not be underestimated
    And what was Brexit but a fantasy project?
    EU membership was 'a project'. A sovereign Britain is the status quo ante.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Since it's Sunday morning, how many Cathedrals are left in Conservative constituencies?

    My hunch is that most of them are either in big urban centres (Labour) or delightful little towns (Liberal).

    The first exception I can think of is Salisbury, but that's got an almost perfect Lib:Lab split letting the Conservatives through on the right but on a pretty low share.

    Da
    My pain au chocolat is thawing for 2 minutes, so with the first wake-me-up coffee, I make it very very roughly.

    Remaining Tory Cathedrals:

    Chester? (I think - not sure which Constituency it is in).
    Hereford
    Leicester? Could be Indy or Lab - not sure which Constituency @Foxy .
    Ripon
    Salisbury
    Southwell

    Independent Cathedrals

    Birmingham (which Constituency?)
    Wakefield

    I think that's it. Corrections welcome.

    (Arundel edited out - that's Roman Catholic)
    I think Leicester Cathedral is in Leicester South, so Independent.
    Update:

    I think Bristol Cathedral has gone Green, going from "Bristol Central."
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146

    And.. they’re off….

    Robert Jenrick is the first leadership contender to break cover. He says the last government “insulted the public” by failing to deal with immigration. He sets out his stall here:

    https://x.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1809859466612838845

    It would have been better for your Party, Carlotta, if the Election had produced a more cleansing result. It would then have had less detritus like Jenrick to clear out before reconstruction begins.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Spot on.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,361
    Farooq said:

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Not just Truss. The British right loved Beano Boris, and grumily tolerated May and Sunak, who at least tried to be responsible national leaders. Or see the Spectator; yes it sells by the truckload but that's in part because it's given up on being a serious journal of right wing thinking and is now almost entirely there to make people think "OMG what are they going to say now?" Which is an excellent sales strategy, but a terrible way to run a country.

    Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
    May I join in the chorus.

    Reform Uk is the Party of childish politics, of wishful thinking. Farage is an essentially unserious politician, in it for the laughs.
    True to an extent but Farage did bring Brexit and should not be underestimated
    A careful reading of their manifesto shows us that underestimating him his impossible. It was the worst policy platform of any party and would see the economy curl up and die. Surprised fewer people talked about it, but therein lies the truth. Farage is a wrecking ball, not a builder. You vote for him if you prefer a pile of rubble over what we have now.
    "see the economy curl up and die" - I join you in being unconvinced by Reformonomics.
    But I am baffled that the Greens appear to get a free pass. Their economics appear to me to be more insane than anyone else's.
    My middle class school friends have engaged in a quick whatsapp discussion of the results, all earnestly pronouncing on how worrying it is that Reform have got 4 (now 5 of course) MPs, and have all had serious talks with their children about the dangers of snake oil salesmen. But they seem breezily unconcerned about Greens getting the same number and the Islamic sectarians getting another 4 (or 5, if you include Corbyn). Both of these strike me as far more extreme and worrying developments than Reform's handful. (Though granted Reform probably got more votes than the total of the rag tag and bobtails of the far left.)

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    Since it's Sunday morning, how many Cathedrals are left in Conservative constituencies?

    My hunch is that most of them are either in big urban centres (Labour) or delightful little towns (Liberal).

    The first exception I can think of is Salisbury, but that's got an almost perfect Lib:Lab split letting the Conservatives through on the right but on a pretty low share.

    Da
    We always knew you were fluent in Russian!
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681
    Selebian said:

    Good morning

    The highlight of the election for me was Truss getting the red card, along with JRM, from their electorate

    I would give a stern warning to the conservative party to be very careful who you appoint as leader, and certainly any idea the toxic Braverman is the one is simply ridiculous

    Watching Starmer ease into the role he looks like a PM and he has a carbon copy 'Blairite' cabinet

    He has been well received by fellow leaders and any idea labour are going to become very unpopular anytime soon is plain wishful thinking

    In Streeting Labour have a health secretary, whose first statement in office was the NHS is broken, who is impressive but will the unions be on the same page

    My only reservation is just what effect Farage will have in the HOC not least he was the catalyst in the EU for Brexit and is not to be underestimated not least as the media have found a new pin up memorable of the days of Johnson

    Anyway good that the GE is behind us and English fans can delight in winning on penalties whilst being rubbish in normal play !!!

    There are parallels between England and Labour.

    Years of expectations being dashed. Uninspiring but quietly effective leader comes in and improves results, but is very boring and doesn't really seem to have any ideas for going on the attack or doing interesting things. Runs a safety first strategy that leaves fans uninspired. But when it actually comes down to it, they're able to grind out a win. For now :lol:
    The unions will be lining up to milk the public purse and labour will be doling it out and claiming how good they are at fixing things as they bankrupt the country.
    Our money will just go to a different bunch of sharks.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,476

    Labour are going to suffer the interest rate bomb on mortgages however hard they try to blame it on the Tories.

    If all we are going to get is Private Frazer pontificating from sore losers, it might be time to retune the dial to ConHome.

    Of course you may all be correct but 48 hours on, surely the jury should still be out.
    I am not a sore loser. If you look back.on my posts you will see I said the Tories
    deserved a good kicking.
    Are we going to see endless posts from you in similarly vein to anyone who comments on what the future holds that's going to be difficult for Labour..
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Since it's Sunday morning, how many Cathedrals are left in Conservative constituencies?

    My hunch is that most of them are either in big urban centres (Labour) or delightful little towns (Liberal).

    The first exception I can think of is Salisbury, but that's got an almost perfect Lib:Lab split letting the Conservatives through on the right but on a pretty low share.

    Da
    My pain au chocolat is thawing for 2 minutes, so with the first wake-me-up coffee, I make it very very roughly.

    Remaining Tory Cathedrals:

    Chester? (I think - not sure which Constituency it is in).
    Hereford
    Leicester? Could be Indy or Lab - not sure which Constituency @Foxy .
    Ripon
    Salisbury
    Southwell

    Independent Cathedrals

    Birmingham (which Constituency?)
    Wakefield

    I think that's it. Corrections welcome.

    (Arundel edited out - that's Roman Catholic)
    I think Leicester Cathedral is in Leicester South, so Independent.
    Update:

    I think Bristol Cathedral has gone Green, going from "Bristol Central."
    Tewkesbury Abbey now LD, for the first time since the 7th Century, I believe.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    kjh said:

    The BBC is often criticised for their election reporting which I have tended to not agree with, but this time I will agree it was dire. On the night two of us were feeding back results to our party in the LD office. I was using PB the other was using Sky. We were consistently 10 min ahead of the BBC which we had on the TV.

    And this morning the BBC were still reporting the LDs have 71 seats and not 72.

    The BBC likes to be reliable and is prepared to be slow; Sky and ITV like to be fast, one of the ways they try and peel a few viewers away from our national broadcaster. But they make mistakes - having Skipton & Ripon up as an early LibDem gain, complete with incorrect figures, was a particularly egregious one.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Carnyx said:



    Just ask @Dura_Ace on the corporate advantages of rebadging jamjars.

    Occasionally works: BRZ/Hachi Roku, Z4/A90 Supra

    More often doesn't...


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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460

    And.. they’re off….

    Robert Jenrick is the first leadership contender to break cover. He says the last government “insulted the public” by failing to deal with immigration. He sets out his stall here:

    https://x.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1809859466612838845

    Jenrickio needs to find out who the Immigration Minister was and then fucking hammer them on socials.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    DavidL said:

    I think Dowden was wrong angsting about mortgage rates continuing to rise for those whose fixed terms were coming to an end because it is only looking at a part of the picture. Interest rates went up because inflation was up. Because inflation was up wages rose by a peak of around 7%. They are still rising at nearly 6% now.

    When we first bought our house things were tight. We had stretched ourselves to our limit and there was very little money left each month. But, within a few years, things got easier as nominal wages rose. Interest rates were much more volatile in the late 80s and early 90s than they are now and fixed deals were a rarity then which gave our mortgage an instant response to changes in rates. But, as time went by and the nominal wages increased this mattered less and less.

    Inflation is a friend to those with large fixed debts, the real value of the debt declines and the asset tends to appreciate in comparison.

    Very much my experience too. Those complaining that we could buy a house for 3xincome usually neglect to notice the interest rates 3 times as high.

    You are right about inflation though. Historically it was how mortgages declined as a cost in household budgets. After a few years scrimping and saving the mortgage became less and less of a burden, at least until a move was needed. I don't think Britons have really understood that low inflation means that they will have to pay of the capital rather than quietly watch it erode. Particularly so for interest only mortgages.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    edited July 7

    Jonathan said:

    I don’t quite know how to make this point, but it’s a serious one. Liz Truss generally comes across to me as a bit childish, lacking the kind of seriousness or gravitas you would normally expect. It seems to be a disease that has infected some on the right. They seem to want to shock and provoke rather than effect change. It’s a subtle thing, but they’re a long way from the kind of intellectual heft that sat behind the Thatcherite revolution.

    Spot on.
    Look at Liz Truss's PMQs performances, and look at Sunak's. And tell me who comes across as childish, wanting to provoke, and lacking the seriousness you'd expect.
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    SKS is absolutely right on prisons. We have far too many people there who don’t or should not need to be there.

    Look at what the prisons in say Finland do differently compared to the UK.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 11,138
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Richardr said:

    Interest rates would have gone up somewhat Liz Truss or not. The rise in inflation was at least initiated by the Ukraine war, and the BoE would have had to raise rates once that seeped into domestic prices, as had happened elsewhere.

    The other point of note is that even if the base rate falls later this year, most are on fixed rate deals and as they get renewed the rates paid will be higher than the existing rates. There are still a lot of mortgage rises to come.

    The interest rate rises in the last 18 months really have virtually nothing to do with Truss. She carried the blame as a useful scapegoat. Her policies would have been fiscally disastrous but they never actually got implemented.

    The damage Truss and Kwarteng did was to investor confidence in the UK and our reputation for economic stability. That’s one thing Hunt has managed to stabilise since.
    Tory members would be wise to note that Hunt held his seat against stiff odds, while Truss lost hers.

    I am not expecting them to be wise.
    I’m still perplexed as to why Hunt fought his seat so hard and with so much of his own money. The job obviously meant a huge amount to him.
    Yet he had a choice of two seats to pick from when his seat was split in two and he picked the more difficult of the two and the one that represented less of his old seat. Several reasons have been suggested.

    Although we almost picked up the 2nd seat of the two, we really didn't work it as much as the seat he stood in. His was in theory a much easier target. I don't know why we didn't get it. It should have been much easier than several others we picked up in Surrey with much less effort from us.
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    northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,637
    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    Interesting graphic,

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809205248654762165

    Turned out there wasn't really any difference between genders and how they voted. Also Labour didn't do as well with 18-24 as previously, which I thought was quite surprising. Seems like good chunk of young people keen to vote Green instead of Labour. Also, 22% voted Tory or Reform, which perhaps backs up what Leon was banging on about at least a tiny bit.

    Tories did really really badly with 25-44. I bet rents / mortgages / student loans. That could be a huge problem for them going forward if they want to try and recover.

    Not much sign of the Hot Young Fascist phenomenon there.

    Sorry for those who enjoy that prospect.
    Do we have data on how efficiently the Farage Tik Tok phenomenon actually converted into youth votes?
    One of my stranger post GE election chats was with one of our admin staff, a forty-something British born Sikh. She didn't vote, not feeling as if she understood enough about politics to do so. She did tell me that her 12 year old daughter was telling her to vote Reform, having seen them on TikTok. Her face fell when I told her that was Farage's bunch.

    Never underestimate the power of Social Media on low information voters.

    I am on TikTok, and was impressed by both the Labour and LD efforts, but also saw quite a few Reform ones. I am not sure if that was the alogarithm spying on me, or paid advertising.
    I was in the pub on Friday talking to a bloke who was a gnat’s bollock away from voting Reform but in the end went Labour. But if Starmer’s shit it’ll definitely vote for Big Nige next time, he said.

    So I explained to him what Farage wants to do to the NHS. I was gratified that he looked suitably chastened.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Richardr said:

    Interest rates would have gone up somewhat Liz Truss or not. The rise in inflation was at least initiated by the Ukraine war, and the BoE would have had to raise rates once that seeped into domestic prices, as had happened elsewhere.

    The other point of note is that even if the base rate falls later this year, most are on fixed rate deals and as they get renewed the rates paid will be higher than the existing rates. There are still a lot of mortgage rises to come.

    The interest rate rises in the last 18 months really have virtually nothing to do with Truss. She carried the blame as a useful scapegoat. Her policies would have been fiscally disastrous but they never actually got implemented.

    The damage Truss and Kwarteng did was to investor confidence in the UK and our reputation for economic stability. That’s one thing Hunt has managed to stabilise since.
    Tory members would be wise to note that Hunt held his seat against stiff odds, while Truss lost hers.

    I am not expecting them to be wise.
    I’m still perplexed as to why Hunt fought his seat so hard and with so much of his own money. The job obviously meant a huge amount to him.
    Especially as he could have had a peerage pretty much for the asking, and certainly a much more mainstream candidate than some of the recent specimens.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    malcolmg said:

    Selebian said:

    Good morning

    The highlight of the election for me was Truss getting the red card, along with JRM, from their electorate

    I would give a stern warning to the conservative party to be very careful who you appoint as leader, and certainly any idea the toxic Braverman is the one is simply ridiculous

    Watching Starmer ease into the role he looks like a PM and he has a carbon copy 'Blairite' cabinet

    He has been well received by fellow leaders and any idea labour are going to become very unpopular anytime soon is plain wishful thinking

    In Streeting Labour have a health secretary, whose first statement in office was the NHS is broken, who is impressive but will the unions be on the same page

    My only reservation is just what effect Farage will have in the HOC not least he was the catalyst in the EU for Brexit and is not to be underestimated not least as the media have found a new pin up memorable of the days of Johnson

    Anyway good that the GE is behind us and English fans can delight in winning on penalties whilst being rubbish in normal play !!!

    There are parallels between England and Labour.

    Years of expectations being dashed. Uninspiring but quietly effective leader comes in and improves results, but is very boring and doesn't really seem to have any ideas for going on the attack or doing interesting things. Runs a safety first strategy that leaves fans uninspired. But when it actually comes down to it, they're able to grind out a win. For now :lol:
    The unions will be lining up to milk the public purse and labour will be doling it out and claiming how good they are at fixing things as they bankrupt the country.
    Our money will just go to a different bunch of sharks.
    Morning Malcolm, ever the optimist, I see :wink: Hope the weather is sunnier with you than your prediction for the Labour government.

    How did you feel about the SNP implosion - schadenfreude or disappointment that it was the unionist parties that benefitted rather than another independence party?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Scott_xP said:

    On the chart, it doesn't look like that strong a correlation. I am unconvinced.

    It's more notable that she had the highest Conservative to Labour swing against her in her constituency. The people of South West Norfolk performed a great service on behalf of the rest of the country.

    They'd met her.
    @PeterAl40121873
    Jul 2
    I am picking up a sense that however much the rest of Britain may dislike Truss, there are people in SW Norfolk who have disliked her longer, harder & with greater specificity. By a stroke of good fortune, these are also the people who actually get a vote on her future.
    Voters don't like someone who gets their seat a bad name
This discussion has been closed.