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The Liz Truss legacy in one chart – politicalbetting.com
The Liz Truss legacy in one chart – politicalbetting.com
Interesting election detail from @drjennings?The more mortgage payers in a constituency, the more the swing away from the Conservatives.The Truss effect?Might the Tories have done better had @RishiSunak not called the election before @bankofengland began cutting rates…????? pic.twitter.com/lGK9EqyOt1
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https://www.statisticshowto.com/lowess-smoothing/
It's more notable that she had the highest Conservative to Labour swing against her in her constituency. The people of South West Norfolk performed a great service on behalf of the rest of the country.
Of course you may all be correct but 48 hours on, surely the jury should still be out.
Good morning everyone.
Good night, Fizzie-Lizzie.
I hope you now do as you have been told by the voters.
Going off the Ashcroft polling earlier in this conversation, Reform are pretty unpopular with young people who are old enough to actually vote. I guess it's possible that there will be a massive jump feeding through in the next two years, but I'm not convinced.
The victory of the Green Party was an early indicator of... something
Doesn’t look very correlated to me.
My hunch is that most of them are either in big urban centres (Labour) or delightful little towns (Liberal).
The first exception I can think of is Salisbury, but that's got an almost perfect Lib:Lab split letting the Conservatives through on the right but on a pretty low share.
Loving it.
Just been called a "smug Southern arse" by a chappie from Sunderland.
😇
https://x.com/mattwardman/status/1809677284284198915
If people have moved from one fixed deal to a higher rate fixed deal, cuts in the short term would not help them either.
Never underestimate the power of Social Media on low information voters.
I am on TikTok, and was impressed by both the Labour and LD efforts, but also saw quite a few Reform ones. I am not sure if that was the alogarithm spying on me, or paid advertising.
And this morning the BBC were still reporting the LDs have 71 seats and not 72.
https://news.sky.com/story/how-much-is-liz-truss-to-blame-for-expensive-mortgages-and-higher-interest-rates-13151551
Tried to delete it, because he might be from Washington.
But looking at those Arundel figures- again an almost perfect split of Lib and Lab. Not quite enough to beat the Conservatives, but close.
The other point of note is that even if the base rate falls later this year, most are on fixed rate deals and as they get renewed the rates paid will be higher than the existing rates. There are still a lot of mortgage rises to come.
The higher the mortgage paying proportion of the population, the lower the average age. So it could be the age stratification of the vote that accounts for the pattern.
But the age stratification of the vote is at least partly affected by housing affordability.
The damage Truss and Kwarteng did was to investor confidence in the UK and our reputation for economic stability. That’s one thing Hunt has managed to stabilise since.
Let us hope that Boring Old PM Starmer can Make Britain Boring Again.
The highlight of the election for me was Truss getting the red card, along with JRM, from their electorate
I would give a stern warning to the conservative party to be very careful who you appoint as leader, and certainly any idea the toxic Braverman is the one is simply ridiculous
Watching Starmer ease into the role he looks like a PM and he has a carbon copy 'Blairite' cabinet
He has been well received by fellow leaders and any idea labour are going to become very unpopular anytime soon is plain wishful thinking
In Streeting Labour have a health secretary, whose first statement in office was the NHS is broken, who is impressive but will the unions be on the same page
My only reservation is just what effect Farage will have in the HOC not least he was the catalyst in the EU for Brexit and is not to be underestimated not least as the media have found a new pin up memorable of the days of Johnson
Anyway good that the GE is behind us and English fans can delight in winning on penalties whilst being rubbish in normal play !!!
Reform Uk is the Party of childish politics, of wishful thinking. Farage is an essentially unserious politician, in it for the laughs.
Jul 2
I am picking up a sense that however much the rest of Britain may dislike Truss, there are people in SW Norfolk who have disliked her longer, harder & with greater specificity. By a stroke of good fortune, these are also the people who actually get a vote on her future.
The best times for housing affordability are when interest rates are dropping following some years of being high (late eighties and again late noughties), and worst when interest rates are rising following a period of being low (early eighties, early nineties, now). The shift to fixed rate mortgages alters things in terms of speed of adjustment.
When we first bought our house things were tight. We had stretched ourselves to our limit and there was very little money left each month. But, within a few years, things got easier as nominal wages rose. Interest rates were much more volatile in the late 80s and early 90s than they are now and fixed deals were a rarity then which gave our mortgage an instant response to changes in rates. But, as time went by and the nominal wages increased this mattered less and less.
Inflation is a friend to those with large fixed debts, the real value of the debt declines and the asset tends to appreciate in comparison.
The Bank of England might have needed to raise interest rates to defend the pound's exchange rate but that is a separate consideration.
I am not expecting them to be wise.
Remaining Tory Cathedrals:
Chester? (I think - not sure which Constituency it is in).
Hereford
Leicester? Could be Indy or Lab - not sure which Constituency @Foxy .
Ripon
Salisbury
Southwell
Independent Cathedrals
Birmingham (which Constituency?)
Wakefield
I think that's it. Corrections welcome.
(Arundel edited out - that's Roman Catholic)
https://x.com/richardaljones/status/1809546173637599279?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg
Notes the appointment of Vallance as particularly significant.
His policies never bear real scrutiny as a result, and that will be a real problem for Reform. If they adopt realistic policies they will die, if they stick to the fatuous and superficial ones then they will have a small audience amongst the disgruntled but never have power.
Brexit - Boris = Remain
If those places are anything to go by house prices will remain robust enough in prime urban or holiday locations but tumble elsewhere.
The only way to grow the economy therefore is to increase supply. Of energy, food, housing. When you do that, you grow and don't inflate.
Years of expectations being dashed. Uninspiring but quietly effective leader comes in and improves results, but is very boring and doesn't really seem to have any ideas for going on the attack or doing interesting things. Runs a safety first strategy that leaves fans uninspired. But when it actually comes down to it, they're able to grind out a win. For now
What was much more damaging to the government was the loss of the perception of economic competence. In that respect it was like another Black Wednesday, something which the Major government never recovered from, despite the excellent work of Ken Clarke.
If the next government isn't a Labour one, someone needs to win a lot of currently held Labour seats. The LibDems are remarkably badly placed to win any of them.
Next time, either the Tories recover and win Labour seats, or Reform breaks through in the batch where they are currently second to Labour, or Labour holds most of them and stays in power. There are probably just a very few where the Greens might come through, as observed on the previous thread (remember some PB'ers argued that a Green vote share of 6-7% was never going to happen; it just did).
Almost as a separate election, there will be a battle between the Tories and LibDems in the south - will the Tories reverse the LibDem surge, or will the LibDems supplant the Tories as part of the Home Counties? That will be a fascinating question, almost entirely a sideshow as far as the government that follows is concerned.
Robert Jenrick is the first leadership contender to break cover. He says the last government “insulted the public” by failing to deal with immigration. He sets out his stall here:
https://x.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1809859466612838845
I think Bristol Cathedral has gone Green, going from "Bristol Central."
But I am baffled that the Greens appear to get a free pass. Their economics appear to me to be more insane than anyone else's.
My middle class school friends have engaged in a quick whatsapp discussion of the results, all earnestly pronouncing on how worrying it is that Reform have got 4 (now 5 of course) MPs, and have all had serious talks with their children about the dangers of snake oil salesmen. But they seem breezily unconcerned about Greens getting the same number and the Islamic sectarians getting another 4 (or 5, if you include Corbyn). Both of these strike me as far more extreme and worrying developments than Reform's handful. (Though granted Reform probably got more votes than the total of the rag tag and bobtails of the far left.)
Our money will just go to a different bunch of sharks.
deserved a good kicking.
Are we going to see endless posts from you in similarly vein to anyone who comments on what the future holds that's going to be difficult for Labour..
More often doesn't...
You are right about inflation though. Historically it was how mortgages declined as a cost in household budgets. After a few years scrimping and saving the mortgage became less and less of a burden, at least until a move was needed. I don't think Britons have really understood that low inflation means that they will have to pay of the capital rather than quietly watch it erode. Particularly so for interest only mortgages.
Look at what the prisons in say Finland do differently compared to the UK.
Although we almost picked up the 2nd seat of the two, we really didn't work it as much as the seat he stood in. His was in theory a much easier target. I don't know why we didn't get it. It should have been much easier than several others we picked up in Surrey with much less effort from us.
So I explained to him what Farage wants to do to the NHS. I was gratified that he looked suitably chastened.
How did you feel about the SNP implosion - schadenfreude or disappointment that it was the unionist parties that benefitted rather than another independence party?
I not sure who could do that. But they have to avoid cosplaying Trump or Farage.
There could easily form some sort of assumption that recovery must now be automatic, so low have they fallen, and now they're out of office, but that is not the case.
It could be that Starmer continues to be a lucky general, the economy improves whilst he's in office, and he delivers some things. Meanwhile the Tories shout and scream at each other (their default) - particularly on immigration - whilst Reform sweep up all the disillusionment and votes on that anyway and continue to grow and grow.
If all that happens the Tories could completely disappear at the next GE. That's why a serious leader is needed: focused on good organisation, unification, excellent candidate selection and competent professional opposition, and not a pissing contest artist.