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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 50-1 shot for the WH2016 Republican nomination has an overwhelming victory in the CPAC straw poll
Each March in the US there’s the Conservative Political Action Conference attended by many leading GOP figures and at which there is a straw poll on who the delegates favour as party nominee for next time. Last year it was won by Kentucky senator, Rand Paul. This year he did it again by an increased margin.
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http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/asia/article4027710.ece
It's written and executive produced by Carl Sagan's wife Ann Druyan.
It's good, but Neil deGrasse Tyson - great presenter though he is - is no Carl Sagan.
Also, the animations instead of the live historical recreations of the orginal series are a bit lame.
One of the major items in the original was the use of classical music - indeed there was a best selling album released of it - but in the remake the music is nowhere near as prominent.
- Ex-prime minister sets out radical plan to rewrite UK constitution giving Scots more Powers http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/10/brown-scotland-radical-constitution-reform
Hmmm... wasn't that guy prime minister up until 2010? Why did he mention none of this then?
Rand Paul is as unelectable as any other GOP candidate.
YouGov/Metro
Swedish general election September 2014 - voting intention
(+/- change from GE 2010)
(* indicates a member of the 4-party ruling coalition)
Social Democrats 33% (+2)
Moderates* (con) 24% (-6)
Sweden Democrats (UKIP-ish) 12% (+6)
Greens 9% (+2)
Left Party 8% (+2)
Peoples' Party* (lib) 5% (-2)
Centre Party* (lib) 5% (-2)
Christian Democrats* 4% (-2)
http://www.metro.se/nyheter/moderaterna-har-tappat-240-000-valjare-till-sd/EVHnci!sZ9KMxM5PsO9w/
In addition to the big lead the red-greens have over the coalition, three of the governing parties are in serious danger of failing to reach the 4% threshold required to send representatives to the Riksdag. The Christian Democrats especially look to be in deep trouble because a new anti-abortion party is taking some of their already tiny voter-base.
Should we have a sweepstake on where he'll be come - oh, I don't know - what about Midsummer's Day?
Dr Ben Carson is an interesting candidate who could cause the democrats some problems. His medical career also suggests he may be a bit more substantive than Cain (not that that would be hard). He supports modest gun control which may cause him a problem with elements of the base but is likely to play better nationally, especially if there is another school massacre. One to watch I think.
I expect that fleet to move to the Pacific and US interest in the middle east to diminish sharply. Ditto their interest in the EU. The next 20 years will all be about the Pacific and China for trade and geopolitical interest externally but the main focus, as always with the US, will be internal.
I am in sunny Switzerland. Busy day ahead and I jolly well hope that there aren't people on my plane home flying on stolen passports.
Since I was last on I have been promoted, which is nice - though the workload is as heavy as ever, alas.
My predictions: the Republicans will choose someone unelectable (again), Labour will (just) win and the Scots referendum will be very close. I rather hope the Yes campaign win simply because the No campaign has been so uninspiring and because a nation should decide its laws for itself in a grown up way but not really my fight. Also it would make politics fun again.
Off now to catch fraudsters.......
Under the scheme 18 to 24-year-olds who have been out of work for a year will be offered a taxpayer-subsidised job lasting six months - with those who refuse losing benefits.
The Compulsory Jobs Guarantee will be in Labour's general election manifesto next year and will be funded for the whole of the next parliament, expected to last from 2015 to 2020, shadow chancellor Ed Balls will announce later.
Those aged 18-25 who have been out of work for 12 months or more would be offered 25 hours' work a week on the minimum wage and the employer would have to guarantee compulsory training.
The government will work with employers to help fund paid work with training for six months. It will mean paid starter jobs for over 50,000 young people who have been left on the dole for over a year by this government.
"But it will be a tough contract - those who can work will be required to take up the jobs on offer or lose their benefits. A life on benefits will simply not be an option."
Labour says the Compulsory Jobs Guarantee will also apply to adults aged 25 or over claiming Jobseeker's Allowance for two years or more."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26506522
This looks very ill-thought out. Where will the jobs come from? Or are these going to be more pseudo public sector non-jobs. In many parts of the UK, there are not enough job vacancies and in other parts (e.g. London) the living/commuting costs are too high for minimum-wage jobs.
Why should employers help fund this scheme if they do not need the employees, and pay Employers NI and training costs? And what happens after the six months - back on benefits? If it does not lead to permanent jobs then it is a waste of money. And will Labour really stop benefits for refusers - I am sure that there is some human right legislation to prevent this.
While the US will begin exporting gas in 2016/2017, even assuming it can increase oil production at 1m barrels a day (which it can't), it wouldn't become a net energy exporter until early next decade.
Congrats, Miss Cyclefree
Thanks to Avery for very intriguing tips on Moscow!
http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/valaret2014/article18510929.ab
The red-green opposition remains a long way ahead and as you say the Christian Democrats especially are in big trouble.
From a micro/individual graduate level I don't see being forced to be trained how to stack shelves for six months when trying to find a Lab job or *insert professional level job here* is in anyway going to help.
We perhaps need to understand why it is possible to get off a bus from Warsaw and be in work in days, while getting on a bus from Tottenham is impossible to do the same work. Work ethic, politeness and honesty; simples! Will these compulsory jobs instill these values by coercion in someone who has grown up without them? Perhaps it will, but the press gang will not be popular in some quarters.
OGH is one behind Billy Bragg and - punch the air for joy - two ahead of Rupert Murdoch...
Foxinsox [8.28am]
We perhaps need to understand why it is possible to get off a bus from Warsaw and be in work in days, while getting on a bus from Tottenham is impossible to do the same work. Work ethic, politeness and honesty; simples!
No - the black kid in Tottenham understands the British labour market, just as his counterpart in Kingston understands the Jamaican one. The Pole is living in a fantasy land (and sleeping four to a room) - he'll wise up and go home, and his younger brother will behave like the black kid. So employers keep needing to expand the EU eastwards to find mugs.
Sure governments can spend money and give it to someone – in the D&I advisor public sector non-job sense. But taking money from one part of the economy in order to make another deliberately less productive is insane.
If Labour want to improve job creation there are plenty of legislative and investment options that would help. What’s being proposed is not one of them.
How many are in the graduate/higher education versus school leaver/low qualification brackets?
Is having a policy designed to get the won't works off their arses going to help the already highly motivated job seekers?
And of the won't work brigade, how many are already "employed" in the black market?
Having just skimmed the BBC article on it, it seems Balls wants to alter the rules for higher rate taxpayers.
Endlessly fiddling with pensions is stupid. Constant rule-changes add a constant flow of bureaucratic costs as firms have to change things all the time, and (far worse) undermines confidence in a system which, by definition, requires a high degree of certainty as it's all about the long term.
Or pensions system isn't fantastic. It needs supporting, not undermining, and we also need to encourage more saving. The message sent out (and this applies to the Conservatives and Lib Dems, at least to an extent, as well) by the political class is completely contrary to this.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26506522
It would be more appropriate to state that Labour promise to extend their "non-jobs" pledge" Anyone who thinks these so called "jobs" might be long lasting needs their head examining.
Hmmm... wasn't that guy prime minister up until 2010? Why did he mention none of this then?
He has miraculously remembered he is actually Scottish. A has been who should hang his head in shame.
Whether its for what they want, originally wanted to do or will result in a degree which give them a chance of a job is different.
Although of course the study habits and practices required to get a degree ought to give some advantage in the job market. Theoretically!
I notice from your strap line that you are now "top 33" not "top 35". Is this rebranding on your part, or do they update the measure every month or something?
And how is it judged - but followers, forwards or something else?
I suspect the intention is to replace the Poles with local labour by bribing employers with their own money. If so, I don't understand why the PeebieTories are so exercised by it. Unless they want the bribe for doing sweet FA. Which, from their track record, wouldn't be all that surprising...
I doubt that'll happen, but a high retirement rate seems almost inevitable.
English votes on English laws could be an alternative, but an English Parliament would be the best answer.
Given that my preferred solution of London independence is unlikely to eventuate in the very short term, my preference would be for a regional approach, though I doubt we need as many as we have. I'd suggest "London", "the South", "the Midlands" and "the North". If you put East Anglia with the Midlands, this would even look reasonably geographically sensible.
At the end of the day, we are always going to be be a small island, with a incredible city which provides wonderful, huge advantage for us as a country.
Let's embrace that, not tear it down.
I know it's not going to happen, but specifically and perhaps constitutionally, why would it not?
We hear all the time of plebiscites among the Falklanders and Gibraltarians about wanting to be ruled from UK. When and how did it become the norm that those you want to rule you don't get consulted?
It is fairly clear what would happen if North Britain or the Crimea voted to become the 51st state; why doesn't the same happen when some godforsaken sub-polar wasteland vote to be British or not?
He might have remembered that he is Scottish (it was a very strange 13 year blackout), but he is still an idiot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qs7V-hnTV30
Re Gib and the Falklands - I assume that you (specifically) don't get consulted because you aren't a citizen but merely a subject of the Crown in Parliament and you'll do what you are dam' well told, or, if you prefer, you have entrusted it to those nice MPs at Westminster to use their judgement on your behalf. And in a political sense it's simply not important enough to rate a referendum.
By the way, I know Gordon Brown called himself North British rather than Scottish on TV once - but less of the "North Britain" please, it's got specific connotations which don't help your argument to be taken seriously (which I have, as I hope is evident). [And to be pedantic also Ulster is not the same as Northern Ireland, which is a much safer usage.]
http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2014/03/08/actualidad/1394309279_402336.html
It's looking more and more likely that the PP will be out of office after the next election, as there does not seem to be a potential coalition partner for them out there. In turn, that should mean that a settlement will be found for the current stand-off over Catalonia. Artur Mas, who leads the regional government there, has restated that there will be a "consultation" on sovereignty later this year, even though it will have no force in law.
If PP is booted out next year (the GE has to be held by 20th December), there will be a relatively swift agreement to grant Catalonia the level of devolved power the Basque country has and this will then be approved by referendum in Catalonia. It should all be done and dusted by the end of 2017, if not before. Should that happen and Scotland has meanwhile voted Yes, that will lead to a fast-tracking of Scottish EU membership, subject to terms being agreed between Scotland and current member states. So an independent Scotland could be a full EU member by the end of 2018.
Firstly, you have a naturally rare event: all twenty cars finished the 2005 Italian GP, and all 24 the 2011 European GP.
Secondly, you have the suspected high retirement rate and uncertainty of the new regulations.
However: in this atmosphere, just finishing the race will be seen as good as a win for publicity purposes. It is possible that there will be little 'natural' racing overtaking, and therefore less collisions, and engines and car capabilities dialled right down to try to ensure completion.
Unlikely: yes. But if the odds are right ...
Another point he mooted: see if you can place a bet on the race going over the two-hour limit.
These would be very risky bets, if you could find anyone to take them ...
But in practice it was a disaster.
To take one example: Thames Valley Police was a bloated inefficient monstrosity. Expensive and not very good at catching the bad guys. Hampshire Constabulary was small, locally focused, cheap and very good.
The idea? Merger Hampshire into TVP, so they can transmit "best practice" and save on overhead
The result: Hampshire Constabulary has now disappeared, the courts are being closed to save money, the service is remote and unresponsive and detection rates are falling sharply.
Core services should be local and responsive. If that costs a little bit extra that's fine.
I think the only thing worse than London being a magnet to the world would be it not being a magnet to the world. There is something wrong with anyone who isn't glad of London.
It works because we speak English, are conveniently located in terms of time zones, have a reliable and fair legal system and courts experienced in adjudicating on even pretty arcane matters, and a tolerable level of crime of all kinds (although there remains a problem with white collar crime in SW1 0AA).
At some point, and especially if poverty-stricken provincials are going to start voting to secede or voting for non-jobs funded by robbing my pension, independence for London could conceivably gain some traction. Exactly because London is so international, fewer and fewer of its movers and shakers have any of these "huge links with the South East" at all, and couldn't give a monkey's for London's historic ties to Milton Keynes or wherever.
I don't think it's actually likely, but London becoming Singapore while the rest of the country turns into Malaysia, with perhaps somewhere like Bath or Bristol becoming KL, strikes me as not impossible. In a way, although I'll be a desperately old fart, I'm quite looking to 2050ish.
Sadly, the response of authorities to the fantastic 2011 Canadian Grand Prix, which Button won after six visits to the pits and being last halfway through, was to introduce a strict 2 hour limit. The total time restriction, I think, including red flag rbeaks is 4 hours. Could be wrong about the latter point.
Rain is apparently forecast for the weekend (I'll check that nearer the time).
I'd want odds with many zeroes for all the cars to finish. It'd be near miraculous.
So we would have MSP/MEnP/MWP/MNIP for regional and MP would now equate to senator.
There would be no need to balkanise England, but some sort of senate would need to be created to ensure that all the regions are equally represented at the UK level.
The only problem (well, I say only, but you get what I mean) with this is the number of representatives we will have to vote for! Local Council, Regional MP, National MP and Euro MP.
Actually, written down like this it doesn't seem to idiotic.
Once you've decided you're going to merge services, you should merge the administration as well and keep the lines of accountability clear.
Better for there to be democratic accountability.
No doubt that for practical purposes, the Commons would become the English Commons and the Lords would be the seat of the Senate.
In a way you're right, but I think that for ceremonial and tourism reasons they are still attractive. But the actual governance of England could be vastly reformed, if there was the will.
It is pretty clear, though, that what Catalonia really wants is Devomax, a bit like Scotland I suspect. Devomax is easier to secure in Spain because there is already a multi-faceted system of devolved power with different regions having different levels, so giving Catalonia more powers would not really affect everyone else that much - except in one area ... The big issue that will need to be resolved with Catalonia is taxation. In theory, Devomax means keeping most of what is raised in a region, but Catalonia generates a lot of tax money, which central government needs. One of the catalysts for the present stand-off is that Catalonia gets back much less than it sends. Devomax will need to change that, but also preserve a level of redistribution. It is doable, but not with the Spanish nationalist PP in power in Madrid.
Why does your party oppose this?
[For clarification, in the proposal I outlined, even whilst not supporting it, both Houses would be elected].
Make the HoL a federal Senate (with reformed membership, obviously) and then make the HoC the English Parliament. Whereas in the past bicameral made sense, given the way that the political parties have corrupted the HoL with their placemen, it would make no difference if the HoC was a unicameral parliament.
Great to agree on something with malcolmg!
Not too fond of a Senate, though. Sounds republican.
Now, would we need a president?
You'd end up having to merge the four greatest counties, South, North, West & East Yorkshire into one.
Such a super county would dominate the rest of the UK with its brilliance and size.
I fear there'd be a Yorkshire Independence movement eventually, and that would be bad for the rest of the UK, as a UK without Yorkshire would struggle, Rump UK would be like Belgium or France, small and irrelevant.
I'm wondering the fact both parties will be engaged in a primary race will be a help or a hindrance to Rand Paul.
Like most college courses these days it is questionable how close to actual employment this is. You would like to think that it would encourage punctuality, discipline, possibly some literacy or contact with modern IT etc.
In reality it largely doesn't (no doubt there is the odd good exception). It doesn't because, like the college courses, funding is directed towards "completion" by the unemployed person. The employer, like the college, is incentivised to tolerate a poor attitude, poor attendance, low results and to hand out the certificates at the end of the stipulated period. I really question if this makes anyone more employable than they were in the first place.
Youth unemployment is still shockingly high although it is falling. What Labour have not learned from their previous catastrophies is that the best solution is not government intervention or subsidies but creating an economy where there is a genuine demand for labour (with a small l, the alternative is difficult to imagine).
We don't have any spare money but if we did excusing all employees under 25 from employers' NI would be a better way to spend it than creating more bureacracies whose only real employment is for the people that run them.
Has there ever been a case where a US Senator, once defeated, has sought election as a Representative?
Mr. Antifrank, if we had an English Parliament we'd need far fewer MPs.
They would pander to the electorate for votes, and then be unremovable. And, if they actually were good at their jobs, they'd be unable to remain.
The other huge issue is one of how the government is formed. If a party has a majority only because of Scottish MPs, then it cannot operate if it has no majority for English laws. Not to mention how Scottish ministers would be possible in that situation.
EV4EL only works on an informal basis, probably not even then...It needs more.
Elect a PM directly (not a president, obviously, because there is nothing for him or her to preside over), allow them to appoint whoever they want to the executive and make sure they are directly accountable to the legislature.