Now this is interesting. If UKIP get any MPs at the next election, it will mainly be at Labour's expense:
'It is claimed that, of the five constituencies where Ukip stands its best chance of general election success, four are Labour seats (Great Grimsby, Plymouth Moor View, Ashfield, Walsall North) and one is Tory (Waveney). The consistent feature in these areas is a splintering of the traditional vote and the existence of a large, older, blue-collar demographic.'
"Ukip is widely seen as not having a credible manifesto "
I've just read Mr Farage's "Flying free" book. That suggests he/UKIP will have a Direct Democracy platform at the 2015 general election.
"I hope that we can introduce direct democracy on something akin to the Swiss model, where the signatures of a given number of people on any issue may generate a plebiscite at national or local level. … I want to see county councils and individual communities afforded far more power over their own destinies. …. I also believe that the future of the British Union lies in federalism. The component nations of the Union should govern themselves" Flying Free, Epilogue, p.289
Totally off topic but in case some of you do not know , the 2009 Kew Gardens reverse 50 pence pieces are currently selling on Ebay for around £ 30 . Worth checking the change in your pockets . The mintage figure was 210,000 .
Stupid question: Will it actually say "Kew Gardens" ?
I can see why they picked Ashfield - it's part of a former mining area with a history of flirting with the far right, and if UKIP were really motoring with their assault on Labour voters this is the sort lof seat where it would work. But, so far, they seem not to be.
A history of flirting with the far right? How so?
The area (though not especially Ashfield) was one of the strongest BNP patches before the party fell apart, and their summer festival was regularly in nearby Amber Valley. Even Combat 88 had a local group. A friend who ran an Asian restaurant in nearby Ilkeston found the atmosphere from some local people distinctly unwelcoming - stones through the window, lots of "jovial" shouts to him as he went about his business. Naturally most people weren't like that, but there was enough nastiness to make the area known for it.
It never spilled over into Broxtowe constituency, though the BNP won a seat in Brinsley, in Ashfield constituency but Broxtowe borough. Ironically that was one reason the party had such trouble later, as the councillor was a bitter opponent of Griffin and had an explosive feud with him, following which the BNP membership list was leaked and BNP heavies visited her house to remove her computer.
I'm not one of those who generally accuses UKIP of racism (obviously with the exception of some members), but ipeople who used to vote BNP may feel they're the next best thing.
BNP only just saved their deposit in 2010, got only 1% in 1997. Before them, the NF only showed up in 1979 (0.6%) and the 1977 by-election (4%):
Now this is interesting. If UKIP get any MPs at the next election, it will mainly be at Labour's expense:
'It is claimed that, of the five constituencies where Ukip stands its best chance of general election success, four are Labour seats (Great Grimsby, Plymouth Moor View, Ashfield, Walsall North) and one is Tory (Waveney). The consistent feature in these areas is a splintering of the traditional vote and the existence of a large, older, blue-collar demographic.'
"Ukip is widely seen as not having a credible manifesto "
I've just read Mr Farage's "Flying free" book. That suggests he/UKIP will have a Direct Democracy platform at the 2015 general election.
"I hope that we can introduce direct democracy on something akin to the Swiss model, where the signatures of a given number of people on any issue may generate a plebiscite at national or local level. … I want to see county councils and individual communities afforded far more power over their own destinies. …. I also believe that the future of the British Union lies in federalism. The component nations of the Union should govern themselves" Flying Free, Epilogue, p.289
Totally off topic but in case some of you do not know , the 2009 Kew Gardens reverse 50 pence pieces are currently selling on Ebay for around £ 30 . Worth checking the change in your pockets . The mintage figure was 210,000 .
Stupid question: Will it actually say "Kew Gardens" ?
I worked for Lawrence Chard in my summer holidays from school and uni in the late 1960's . He had just started his coin business with funds and a supply of coins sorted from the amusement arcade his father owned on the Golden Mile in Blackpool .
Totally off topic but in case some of you do not know , the 2009 Kew Gardens reverse 50 pence pieces are currently selling on Ebay for around £ 30 . Worth checking the change in your pockets . The mintage figure was 210,000 .
Stupid question: Will it actually say "Kew Gardens" ?
The way I see it is UKIP only have 3 seats they can win: Thanet South (with Farage standing), Boston & Skegness, and Eastleigh.
What about Forest of Dean? They did well there in the May 2013 elections, and with the local MP in the news for employing an illegal immigrant, doesn't that improve UKIP's chances?
I was expecting most of the significant BNP euro vote from 5 years ago to go to UKIP, not because of being racist, but mostly the demographic and NOTA position.
But in Wythenshaw they surprised me by keeping a decent share of the vote.
I can see why they picked Ashfield - it's part of a former mining area with a history of flirting with the far right, and if UKIP were really motoring with their assault on Labour voters this is the sort lof seat where it would work. But, so far, they seem not to be.
A history of flirting with the far right? How so?
The area (though not especially Ashfield) was one of the strongest BNP patches before the party fell apart, and their summer festival was regularly in nearby Amber Valley. Even Combat 88 had a local group. A friend who ran an Asian restaurant in nearby Ilkeston found the atmosphere from some local people distinctly unwelcoming - stones through the window, lots of "jovial" shouts to him as he went about his business. Naturally most people weren't like that, but there was enough nastiness to make the area known for it.
It never spilled over into Broxtowe constituency, though the BNP won a seat in Brinsley, in Ashfield constituency but Broxtowe borough. Ironically that was one reason the party had such trouble later, as the councillor was a bitter opponent of Griffin and had an explosive feud with him, following which the BNP membership list was leaked and BNP heavies visited her house to remove her computer.
I'm not one of those who generally accuses UKIP of racism (obviously with the exception of some members), but ipeople who used to vote BNP may feel they're the next best thing.
All I can do is repeat the numbers thart 8% of current UKIP supporters voted LAB at GE2010. 45% of current UKIP supporters voted CON.
Probably some sort of 'shy Labour' phenomenon at work. I mean, you'd feel pretty stupid as a recent UKIP convert admitting you voted for Gordon in 2010.
I was expecting most of the significant BNP euro vote from 5 years ago to go to UKIP, not because of being racist, but mostly the demographic and NOTA position.
But in Wythenshaw they surprised me by keeping a decent share of the vote.
I can see why they picked Ashfield - it's part of a former mining area with a history of flirting with the far right, and if UKIP were really motoring with their assault on Labour voters this is the sort lof seat where it would work. But, so far, they seem not to be.
A history of flirting with the far right? How so?
The area (though not especially Ashfield) was one of the strongest BNP patches before the party fell apart, and their summer festival was regularly in nearby Amber Valley. Even Combat 88 had a local group. A friend who ran an Asian restaurant in nearby Ilkeston found the atmosphere from some local people distinctly unwelcoming - stones through the window, lots of "jovial" shouts to him as he went about his business. Naturally most people weren't like that, but there was enough nastiness to make the area known for it.
It never spilled over into Broxtowe constituency, though the BNP won a seat in Brinsley, in Ashfield constituency but Broxtowe borough. Ironically that was one reason the party had such trouble later, as the councillor was a bitter opponent of Griffin and had an explosive feud with him, following which the BNP membership list was leaked and BNP heavies visited her house to remove her computer.
I'm not one of those who generally accuses UKIP of racism (obviously with the exception of some members), but ipeople who used to vote BNP may feel they're the next best thing.
The pattern of support for the BNP and UKIP in the 2009 EU elections seemed to come from different supporters. With the BNP taking votes in Labour areas, and UKIP taking votes in Conservative/LD areas.
All I can do is repeat the numbers thart 8% of current UKIP supporters voted LAB at GE2010. 45% of current UKIP supporters voted CON.
Probably some sort of 'shy Labour' phenomenon at work. I mean, you'd feel pretty stupid as a recent UKIP convert admitting you voted for Gordon in 2010.
You're not being serious, surely?
If I recall correctly the views of one of the academics that I think you were citing, the case that UKIP is doing damage to Labour is built around the premise that some of those disillusioned 2010 Con voters now intending to vote UKIP might otherwise have been expected to switch to Labour. The low level of 2010 Con to Lab switching gives some support to that, but on the other hand the absence of such volatile and unreliable support means that Labour's current 38% or so is more robust.
All I can do is repeat the numbers thart 8% of current UKIP supporters voted LAB at GE2010. 45% of current UKIP supporters voted CON.
Probably some sort of 'shy Labour' phenomenon at work. I mean, you'd feel pretty stupid as a recent UKIP convert admitting you voted for Gordon in 2010.
You're not being serious, surely?
If I recall correctly the views of one of the academics that I think you were citing, the case that UKIP is doing damage to Labour is built around the premise that some of those disillusioned 2010 Con voters now intending to vote UKIP might otherwise have been expected to switch to Labour. The low level of 2010 Con to Lab switching gives some support to that, but on the other hand the absence of such volatile and unreliable support means that Labour's current 38% or so is more robust.
I have always argued that some people reporting that they are UKIP now, 2010 Con, were misremembering the truth, which, as a general phenomenon, is well-attested. These people will consider themselves Tories, but were just too apathetic in 2010. Having "jumped ship" they suddenly care again and have to justify their move.
The authors of this report must take all of us for fools if they think we're going to believe the Philippines is a better place for women to live than Denmark:
I think that the point is equality, rather than best place to live.
The highest scoring country in africa is Lesotho, at 16. It is a dirt poor barren country where everyone is poor, but there is political, health and economic equality between the sexes.
The authors of this report must take all of us for fools if they think we're going to believe the Philippines is a better place for women to live than Denmark:
One problem with Malaysia is that it's at the top of Geert Hofstede's Power Distance Index, which has been allegedly implicated in a number of flight disasters:
I think that the point is equality, rather than best place to live.
The highest scoring country in africa is Lesotho, at 16. It is a dirt poor barren country where everyone is poor, but there is political, health and economic equality between the sexes.
The authors of this report must take all of us for fools if they think we're going to believe the Philippines is a better place for women to live than Denmark:
Re betting on Bermondsey - there might be something to be said for waiting for the local election results and slipping a bet in immediately afterwards (assuming that the bookies wont be up all night adjusting their odds as the results come in).
The 2012 results here were dire for the Lib Dems. There was a by-election in East Walworth later in the year that was much better than the Assembly results and I'm sure Simon Hughes will be hoping that 2014 is closer to the latter than the former.
Hughes has a strong personal vote, if anyone else was standing for the Lib Dems (and its worth remembering that IOS predicted he wouldnt even stand) it would be very difficult for them. I personally know a lot of people around here who are *very* angry with Hughes' support for the Coalition but I doubt they are typical of voters in the constituency.
The reasoning is on the link. Certainly Denmark has political equality, but is there equality in health issues etc?
I suspect that in part the Phillipines scores so highly is that it is the most Christian country in asia. It is quite noticeable that Christian countries have better equality scores than comparable countries, whether in Europe, Latin America or Africa as a general rule. This may well be down to the greater female participation in education and working outside the home compared to other countries.
Phillipino women have also often worked abroad, often as nurses, maids or shopgirls, but compared to economic opportunities for Philipino men these are good opportunities, and economic freedom often drives both political and health improvements.
I work with a bunch of Philipino nurses, and they are great professionals, well trained and with a work ethic that shames our often idle British workers.
I think that the point is equality, rather than best place to live.
The highest scoring country in africa is Lesotho, at 16. It is a dirt poor barren country where everyone is poor, but there is political, health and economic equality between the sexes.
The authors of this report must take all of us for fools if they think we're going to believe the Philippines is a better place for women to live than Denmark:
"High Court judge and the child sex ring: Adviser to Queen was founder of paedophile support group to keep offenders out of jail
* Lord Justice Fulford was named last year as an adviser to the Queen * He was a key backer of the notorious Paedophile Information Exchange * Police suspect the group of abusing children on an 'industrial scale' * He is revealed as a founder member of campaign to defend PIE * At the time it was calling for the age of consent to be lowered to just four"
"High Court judge and the child sex ring: Adviser to Queen was founder of paedophile support group to keep offenders out of jail
* Lord Justice Fulford was named last year as an adviser to the Queen * He was a key backer of the notorious Paedophile Information Exchange * Police suspect the group of abusing children on an 'industrial scale' * He is revealed as a founder member of campaign to defend PIE * At the time it was calling for the age of consent to be lowered to just four"
The Mail on Sunday appears to hold the same position as extreme feminists, namely that the rule of law should not apply to sex cases. An ironic meeting of minds.
The reasoning is on the link. Certainly Denmark has political equality, but is there equality in health issues etc?
I think so - can't think of any aspect of Danish law where there is any kind of gender discrimination. Doesn't mean the Phillippines isn't very good too (I've no idea), but this sort of subjective comparison is difficult, since it's unlikely that the same people are doing both evaluations.
"High Court judge and the child sex ring: Adviser to Queen was founder of paedophile support group to keep offenders out of jail
* Lord Justice Fulford was named last year as an adviser to the Queen * He was a key backer of the notorious Paedophile Information Exchange * Police suspect the group of abusing children on an 'industrial scale' * He is revealed as a founder member of campaign to defend PIE * At the time it was calling for the age of consent to be lowered to just four"
It seems that the Phillipines does score better than Denmark on a number of their measures including participation of women in management and professional jobs, and years out of the last 50 with a female President/Prime Minister.
Some interesting spreadsheets there for people who like that sort of thing! and I do...
The reasoning is on the link. Certainly Denmark has political equality, but is there equality in health issues etc?
I think so - can't think of any aspect of Danish law where there is any kind of gender discrimination. Doesn't mean the Phillippines isn't very good too (I've no idea), but this sort of subjective comparison is difficult, since it's unlikely that the same people are doing both evaluations.
This is an interesting documentary on Air France Flight 447 which crashed en route from Rio to Paris in 2009:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHduB-knlt0&
Whoever designed that aircraft should be taken out and shot.
One pilot can't see what the other is doing with the sidestick....
No physical feedback from the stick...
Automatic averaging of the two pilots' inputs...
Uncertainty whether the autopilot is on or off...
No angle of attack indicator...
Etc
Aviation expert David Learmount, who appears in the programme, has said in the last few hours that there could be a few similarities between flight 447 and the Malaysian Airlines flight which has disappeared, despite the fact that the latter involved a Boeing 777 rather than an Airbus. I think he means the fact that they both happened at night at a time when the crew might have been more tired than at other times of day, and obviously you can't always tell that you're stalling at night. Also, one of the pilots was relatively inexperienced, as was the case with flight 447.
"PETALING JAYA: Sweden-based flight tracking service FlightRadar24 was the first to report that Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 had disappeared from radar about 50 minutes of departure, and not two hours as initially stated."
This is an interesting documentary on Air France Flight 447 which crashed en route from Rio to Paris in 2009:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHduB-knlt0&
Whoever designed that aircraft should be taken out and shot.
One pilot can't see what the other is doing with the sidestick....
No physical feedback from the stick...
Automatic averaging of the two pilots' inputs...
Uncertainty whether the autopilot is on or off...
No angle of attack indicator...
Etc
Aviation expert David Learmount, who appears in the programme, has said in the last few hours that there could be a few similarities between flight 447 and the Malaysian Airlines flight which has disappeared, despite the fact that the latter involved a Boeing 777 rather than an Airbus. I think he means the fact that they both happened at night at a time when the crew might have been more tired than at other times of day, and obviously you can't always tell that you're stalling at night. Also, one of the pilots was relatively inexperienced, as was the case with flight 447.
MH370 has only taken off relatively shortly before and was just at cruising height, whilst AF447 had been cruising for more than three hours, more than enough time for real fatigue and sluggishness to kick in. Besides, in AF447 a relatively trivial technical failure (inconsistent airspeed readings, probably from iced over pitot tubes) was the initiating factor of the crew's fatal incorrect response. If it is fatigue, look for a technical failure behind it.
IMHO, it is much more likely to be technical failure or a criminal act at this stage. But that's just pure guesswork.
If you want a horrific example of crew incompetence due to tiredness, then China airlines flight 006 is perhaps the best. They lost an engine ten hours into a flight, and put the plane into a descent of 10,000 feet in twenty seconds. They pulled out at 11,000 feet above the Pacific, and somehow managed to land the plane safely.
Last elections held in 2009, when a 99.98% turnout was reported and the Workers' Party won 606 seats.
Kim Fat Wun is standing for re-election in Constituency 111, his Mount Paektu seat.
The North Korean state-run media have been promoting participation in the election by broadcasting a newly commissioned poem entitled, "We Go to Polling Station".
What do we think, PBers?
Will Kim Fat Wun hold on? Will the Workers' Party get a seats majority or are we expecting a hung parliament?
If you're a Labourite, then drinking Waitrose's free coffee is stealing from the small and poor companies such as Costa and Starbucks. It should be stopped immediately.
If you're a Labourite, then drinking Waitrose's free coffee is stealing from the small and poor companies such as Costa and Starbucks. It should be stopped immediately.
Can’t stand Starbucks; why do they serve the coffee at scalding hot temperatures?
Comments
Edit: all the 50p designs:
http://www.royalmint.com/discover/uk-coins/coin-design-and-specifications/fifty-pence-coin
I never knew there were so many ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashfield_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxoSGFQaWg1V2tyYklHcXFkTm9LTXc&usp=sheets_web#gid=0
The most recent set of designs are pathetic, save the pound coin.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/20/passengers-terrified-fires-lit-etihad-airways-flight-australia
I mean, why?
But in Wythenshaw they surprised me by keeping a decent share of the vote.
That's from the 14,203 aggregate Populus data for February.
http://www.geocurrents.info/geopolitics/changing-geographical-patterns-in-british-elections
I seem to recall Ken Livingstone saying the BNP voters would 'come home to Labour' once Labour were in opposition.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/zcars-star-james-ellis-dies-at-82-30075440.html
If I recall correctly the views of one of the academics that I think you were citing, the case that UKIP is doing damage to Labour is built around the premise that some of those disillusioned 2010 Con voters now intending to vote UKIP might otherwise have been expected to switch to Labour. The low level of 2010 Con to Lab switching gives some support to that, but on the other hand the absence of such volatile and unreliable support means that Labour's current 38% or so is more robust.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2014/mar/06/mark-webber-lewis-hamilton-williams-f1
Let's hope so [put the smallest stake possible on Bottas at 65 for the title].
Top 4 - get real.
Beer.
Bale best of clips revisit.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-24650912
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/08/dan-hannan-cpac_n_4925781.html
The highest scoring country in africa is Lesotho, at 16. It is a dirt poor barren country where everyone is poor, but there is political, health and economic equality between the sexes.
http://www.clearlycultural.com/geert-hofstede-cultural-dimensions/power-distance-index/
[scene at 23:00] 'Are ye... er... after ma boddie?... Ye can have ma boddie if ye want. Past caring...'
[scene at 55:30] 'That was ma winder!'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nC1QmXCg0i0
The 2012 results here were dire for the Lib Dems. There was a by-election in East Walworth later in the year that was much better than the Assembly results and I'm sure Simon Hughes will be hoping that 2014 is closer to the latter than the former.
Hughes has a strong personal vote, if anyone else was standing for the Lib Dems (and its worth remembering that IOS predicted he wouldnt even stand) it would be very difficult for them. I personally know a lot of people around here who are *very* angry with Hughes' support for the Coalition but I doubt they are typical of voters in the constituency.
I suspect that in part the Phillipines scores so highly is that it is the most Christian country in asia. It is quite noticeable that Christian countries have better equality scores than comparable countries, whether in Europe, Latin America or Africa as a general rule. This may well be down to the greater female participation in education and working outside the home compared to other countries.
Phillipino women have also often worked abroad, often as nurses, maids or shopgirls, but compared to economic opportunities for Philipino men these are good opportunities, and economic freedom often drives both political and health improvements.
I work with a bunch of Philipino nurses, and they are great professionals, well trained and with a work ethic that shames our often idle British workers.
* Lord Justice Fulford was named last year as an adviser to the Queen
* He was a key backer of the notorious Paedophile Information Exchange
* Police suspect the group of abusing children on an 'industrial scale'
* He is revealed as a founder member of campaign to defend PIE
* At the time it was calling for the age of consent to be lowered to just four"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2576451/High-court-judge-child-sex-ring-Adviser-Queen-founder-paedophile-support-group-offenders-jail.html
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHduB-knlt0&
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCywGhHQMEw
It seems that the Phillipines does score better than Denmark on a number of their measures including participation of women in management and professional jobs, and years out of the last 50 with a female President/Prime Minister.
Some interesting spreadsheets there for people who like that sort of thing! and I do...
One pilot can't see what the other is doing with the sidestick....
No physical feedback from the stick...
Automatic averaging of the two pilots' inputs...
Uncertainty whether the autopilot is on or off...
No angle of attack indicator...
Etc
"PETALING JAYA: Sweden-based flight tracking service FlightRadar24 was the first to report that Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 had disappeared from radar about 50 minutes of departure, and not two hours as initially stated."
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/03/09/Tracking-firm-Plane-missing-about-50min-after-departure/
The first was a psychopathic pilot with a death wish
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6IuJY4qkiY
The second was pilot error in failure to complete proper ground checks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=by7fzs6paic
IMHO, it is much more likely to be technical failure or a criminal act at this stage. But that's just pure guesswork.
If you want a horrific example of crew incompetence due to tiredness, then China airlines flight 006 is perhaps the best. They lost an engine ten hours into a flight, and put the plane into a descent of 10,000 feet in twenty seconds. They pulled out at 11,000 feet above the Pacific, and somehow managed to land the plane safely.
The piccies showing the damage are startling:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_006
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26502675
Now, what do they say when bankers do this?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2576529/Tartan-exodus-Over-big-businesses-warn-leave-Scotland-Salmond-wins-independence-vote.html
If only for the free coffee. Oh, darned it, that's also banned now ...
;-)
Six hundred and eighty seven seats up for grabs.
Last elections held in 2009, when a 99.98% turnout was reported and the Workers' Party won 606 seats.
Kim Fat Wun is standing for re-election in Constituency 111, his Mount Paektu seat.
The North Korean state-run media have been promoting participation in the election by broadcasting a newly commissioned poem entitled, "We Go to Polling Station".
What do we think, PBers?
Will Kim Fat Wun hold on? Will the Workers' Party get a seats majority or are we expecting a hung parliament?
No, the coffee hasn’t been banned. Had a free cup there yesterday.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/03/02/the-entire-shadow-cabinet-should-be-forced-to-drink-waitroses-free-coffee/
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/03/labour-kindly-highlights-free-coffee-scheme/
If you're a Labourite, then drinking Waitrose's free coffee is stealing from the small and poor companies such as Costa and Starbucks. It should be stopped immediately.