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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling lesson of the week: Don’t get too excited about single YouGov daily poll movements
We’ve got to remember that polls can be subject to a lot of sample variation with, quite often, particular demograpihic segments having to be sharply scaled up or down. If the former then the margin of error for that section increases.
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Meanwhile: congrats to Bus Pass Elvis on a sterling performance in last night’ Clifton North by-election for Nottingham City Council.
The evil homophobic bigot who openly condoned an arson attack on the offices of a gay magazine has, at long last, become a rotting corpse
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/10681346/Dame-Elaine-Kellett-Bowman.html
@Mark Senior: In 2008, the Tory majority was 1138.
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Mike, the Toroes should be forgiven for getting a bit excited once in a while. As far as they are concerned these close polls are the real deal, the rest are outliers.
Ramsbottom also used to be a safe Tory seat.
By the way, I sell to Manufacturing British industry only. And my sales per day this quarter is slightly below last quarter !
What do you make of John McTernan's predictions in today's Scotsman? Lab gain
Caithness and Sutherland. Con gain North East Fife. Con gain Gordon. Con gain West Aberdeenshire. Con gain Berwickshire et al. Even Lab poss gain Inverness.
Maybe you're not much of a salesman.
compouter did the same last night at the Bury count. He calculated it was so close that the candidate would be selected by straw poll after multiple recounts. Turned out to be a 350 seat Tory majority.
Too many lefties can't count beyond the fingers on their hands and place their faith in YouGov outliers instead.
There will be tears in fourteen months, I tell you.
The "polling lesson of the week", and for all weeks not just this one is :
Keep the polls close but the ARSE closer.
After "Lord" Chris Smith and Monbiot's stupidity, it seems wiser heads are prevailing:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26455513
Remember, the Bridgwater tidal barrier was estimated to cost £25 million. Instead, the EA broke sea defences further downstream to create a £31 million bird sanctuary that did f'all to prevent the riverine floods.
Also note, as I have been wittering on about for a while:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26466653
Chris Smith is not fit for purpose. Put an engineer or hydrologist as chair of the EA, not a failed, incompetent politician.
We should be looking after people first, not birds.
My understanding was that yougov were using a smoothing technique which meant each poll was something like a 3 day running average with the oldest sample being replaced by the new. Was I wrong or have they changed this?
In the meantime, perhaps someone could devise a contraption to measure the proportion of comments on a thread which are basically just abuse. Then OGH could place its output just below the advert and some of us would know whether or not to bother opening up the comments. Especially at this time in the morning...
The Chinese government allow a corporation to default on its onshore bonds, for the first time:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26464901
It's about time Chinese investors learnt about risk.
The best-known example in popular culture is probably 'Wee Eck', from the DC Thomson comic character in Oor Wullie (the Sunday Post etc).
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b250/Zoom-Zoom/Eck.jpg
DC Thomson characters are quite commonly used as popular references in Scottish public life. For example, Gordon Brown was often referred to as 'Daphne', for a variety of reasons we will not go into here.
http://www.toonhound.com/broons-2.gif (Daphne is the less-glamorous young lady on the left)
I have never known an Eck though. I wonder if that was (DC Thomson aside) more of a north east thing.
The influence of DC Thomson on the older generation (I have a good friend who consistently referred to as Pa Broon, largely as a result of his moustache and size) is hard to overstate. I don't believe that this will be the case with future generations. It is another common reference point that will not survive the digital age.
Beppe Grillo sentenced to four months in jail for high-speed rail protest:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-italy-grillo-idUSBREA2217Y20140303
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26422237
Their criminal justice system is truly bizarre.
Who will you blame for the YES defeat and why will it be so resoundingly rejected ?
I also worked for a number of years with a guy known universally as Fat Boab
Judging by that, the UK is heading for a slump ! There hasn't been one for days ! I am almost missing them. Avery, not really !!!
The Tax receipts in January, the biggest month of the year ! Say, no more !
In today's YouGov as compared with that of yesterday, the 2010 LD split has reverted in favour of Labour (37/36) and the 2010 Cons support by the Cons is down from 80 to 74.
As far as the thread header...
What does this tell us that we don't already know?
Underlying message is that the Labour lead is fairly consistent, and this must be a worry for the governing parties.
There is still time for this to swing back, but it does seem like all the Tory eggs are in the recovery basket.
2009
2009 100
2010 120
2011 141.6
2012 154.63
2013 170.86
No bad eh ! For a Labourite !!
I know you are a tireless promoter of animal welfare and have been quite active in the animal testing debate. I'd assume that allowing chickens and sheep to be slaughtered by simply having their throats cut is difficult to justify - as most abbatoirs are obliged to stun animals before before inflicting the fatal injury.
Is there not a direct conflict between the rights of the animal to a humane death and the religious views of Islam? I wonder what the law says on this one.
If we're being pedantic, I don't see what voting Labour has got to do with being a good Salesman.
Ha, the headline is more or less what I wrote on the last thread. Great minds think alike.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/roundthehorne/
I suspect that this is one subject where officially the policy would be not to have a policy.
Wake up to the smell of bacon... On your iPhone!
Monbiot is one of the few people who is assessing this through an understanding of how water moves through the whole catchment. In that he certainly trumps the idiotic Liddell Grainger. I have sympathy with your views on putting an expert in as chair of EA, but having just seen a developer and hedge fund manager (major Tory donor) placed in charge of Natural England, that isn't the way the world works is it? Partisan support is what earns these sinecures - not knowledge of the subject area.
If you think dredging is going to have a significant impact in preventing a repeat given similar levels of rainfall you are going to be sadly disappointed. This will happen again, just as it has before. We would do better to look at patterns of land management and development in the catchment, particularly the increase in arable cultivation.
Miles King has a good summary.. http://anewnatureblog.wordpress.com/2014/02/11/keeping-a-level-head/
He’d moved to Essex in his early 20’s, with his wife, and they’d brought up their children there. Both parents had distinctive (and very pleasant) NE Scottish accents; the children though were definitely N Essex!
All animals intended as food should have a life with some degree of stimulation and a quick and clean death if it can possibly be helped.
The greater the sentience, the more responsibility on us.
People who have been to Specsavers will have noticed I did not mention 2008. Well, 2009 was -12.6% on 2008 !! 2010 was, in fact, the bounce back year.
I am hoping that with a change of government next year, a boom will follow.
In terms of what we eat, I believe that as omnivores we may reasonably choose to eat a fully varied diet. I happily eat red meat. But with higher animals, we should seek to ensure that so far as consistent with our needs and beliefs they are treated well in life and in death. With fish, we should not catch 10,000 and throw 9,999 away.
Sadly, Monbiot applied what works in upper catchments - slowing water's progression downstream - with what works in lower catchments - i.e. to speed the water out to the sea, or delay in in specially-built storage channels. It's made much more complex in the case of the Levels by the low-lying land and tidal nature of the rivers. In that, Monbiot showed that he had absolutely no clue about watercourses.
Miles King comes from a wildlife conservation angle, and this should always be secondary to the interests of humans. It's what's got us into this mess in the first place. He also says the 'blame game' started with Pickles, ignoring Maria Eagle's rather unfortunate comments much earlier against Patterson. He comes across as someone who puts wildlife ahead of people.
BTW, I agree about political appointees. When they've failed as badly as Smith, they should go.
Sandy Shaw -"SNP - Puppet in a String Vest"
I wonder if one day that, you'll say that, you care
On 18th September you say you love me madly, I'll gladly, be there
Like a puppet on a string
The SNP is just like a merry-go-round
With all the fun of the fair
One day I'm twenty points down
Then I'm up in the air
Eck, Are you leading me on?
Tomorrow will you the pound be gone?
I wonder if that day that, you'll say that, you care
If you love Referenda madly, I'll gladly, be there
Like a puppet on a string
I may win the Holyrood vote
Then I'll lose the YES/NO vote
In or out, there is never a doubt
That Osborne's pulling the strings
Sturgeon's all tied up to you
But where's she leading me to?
I wonder if one day that, you'll say that, you care
If you say you love the voters madly, I'll gladly, be there
Like a puppet on a string
Like a puppet on a..... string
Yes, proof indeed of swing back....
"Boyd Black, secretary of the Northern Ireland Constituency Labour Party, accused Mr Miliband of an “undemocratic, 1950s, colonial governor mindset” at a Westminster meeting yesterday.
“The cumulative effect of Labour’s stance over time is the single most politically destabilising factor in Northern Ireland,” he told the meeting in London. “We have failing sectarian politics in Northern Ireland, not because of the flags protesters or the dissidents or the on-the-runs, but because the Labour Party suppress grown-up politics.”
http://sluggerotoole.com/2014/03/05/ni-tories-lend-their-weight-as-labour-ni-accuse-ed-miliband-of-undemocratic-1950s-colonial-governor-mindset/
Ed the bigot.
Having been brought up on a farm on the N Someret levels, I disagree with you, King and Monbiot.
The farmers managed the water levels in the rhynes and rivers and ensured that any winter flooding was controlled and did not threaten either communications or habitation - without any interference from the EA, EU or any other uninformed body.
The rhynes were lightly dredged every Spring/Summer which was essentially weed removal and the rivers dredged to remove silt. At the same time this built up the banks.
Whilst the severe weather would have brought more flooding than normal, the usual good drainage management that had been stopped would have prevented most of the scenes that we saw so vividly on TV.
I knew a Prof. Sandy Florence who was at Glasgow Uni. A very great man
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26475636
Con 480 LD 372 UKIP 236 Ind 192 Lab 69
No news of the Burnham , Norfolk result
http://redrag1.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/red-rag-lib-dems-hit-new-low-beaten-by.html
Edited extra bit: and Xar was a major character in the Deathgate Cycle.
- When Elliott Morley was animal welfare minister (and whatever his other issues he was genuinely keen on that) he toured the halal slaughterhouses and quietly persuaded all but one to introduce pre-stunning, with the help of a supportive imam who basically said that the Koran was ambiguous and they needn't annoy customers by insisting. He deliberately didn't publicise it to avoid both extreme zealots and extreme Islamophobes from weighing in. Whether the progress has been maintained or slipped back I don't know. Sadly he didn't have any success with the (much smaller in number) kosher slaughterhouses.
- I agree with antifrank and others that treatment should be as good as possible. Probably that should include a requirement for pre-stunning. But I'm wary of people who focus on that - basically slaughterhouses are very grim places and people who focus ONLY on what Muslims and Jews do in the final seconds sometimes have another agenda (I'm sure this doesn't apply to you). A general review of slaughterhouses to make them more humane including the stunning would be great.
This being a political betting site it is customary to put your cash/opinion down before the voters choose as I've yet to find a bookie who's overly keen on letting one wager after the result is known !?!
- Business Secretary Vince Cable will tell the Liberal Democrat spring conference that Ukip and Conservative Eurosceptics are "putting at risk the union of the UK" with their "British nationalism". http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10682322/Vince-Cable-Ukip-supporters-could-push-Scotland-out-of-the-UK.html
The 'Project Fear' campaign being run by Alistair Darling and Blair McDougall is a molehill compared to the mountain of shite the Establishment are going to dump on the Brexit campaign.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/cff1
18 minutes in. Interesting that they reckon Rosberg's a more engineering-oriented driver than Hamilton, (this being advantageous in 2014).
I guess one of the most pervasive legacies left by Alexander the Great is the variations of his name in so many cultures & languages.
Who will you blame for the Conservatives' defeat and why will they be so resoundingly rejected?
Current Ladbrokes' YES price = 7/2
Current Ladbrokes' CON MAJ price = 7/2
Hmmm... identical prices. And yet, according to Jack YES is dead in the water while CON MAJ is nailed on.
More hot air than a well-used bagpipe.
The 'Project Fear' campaign being run by Alistair Darling and Blair McDougall is a molehill compared to the mountain of shite the Establishment are going to dump on the Brexit campaign.Roger Halfon MP (Con) has just labeled UKIP supporters 'Nazis'.
Just how much of that 37-41% Labour vote expressed in the polls represents people who actually go out to vote rather than just shout their mouths off?
Mainly from Tories, the Cons will need around a 7% swing to get a working majority, but it's still all to play for and it'll be the 6 month run-up to the GE that counts.
Mainly from Labour & LDs, it's boots on the ground and gotv that'll be crucial.
*strokes chin*
"I am not now, nor have I ever been a member of the United Kingdom Independence Party"
I bear you no ill will at your crabby disposition as it is clearly a body blow to realize your cherished dream of independence is disappearing like @rcs1000 juvenile Easter egg horde down Mike Smithson's gannet like gullet.
Is Chris Christie a busted flush? Seems up for it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/video/idUSBREA252DO20140306?videoId=288813685
Last Con Maj was in 1992.
Last Lab Maj was in 2005.
Last SNP Maj was in 2011.
Food for thought for the Tories and their BeTory Together chums.
So plenty of hot air from Sweden - it must be the meat balls.
One word. Wow
Ok, it was as historically accurate as Morris Dancer's observation on the Second Punic War Michael Gove's thoughts on The First World War.
I mean I can't ever imagine Athenian senators debating with each other and saying "Shut your cockhole"
At times it was (deliberately) camper than a row of pink tents, there were some genuinely laugh out loud moments.
But it was an enjoyable, story and visceral treat, if you loved the first one, you'll love this one.
Final thought, I would do horrible, unforgivable things to conquer Eva Green's [moderated]*
*Yes, I know a terrible human being, and deserve to be punished, by her.
"Jack, .... your obviously going senile. Pontificating from the deep south shows how out of touch you are"
............................................................................
But clearly @Stuart_Dickson posting from nearby Sweden must indicate a clarity of observation and insight that puts us all to shame.
With such logic how could YES fail ? and yet .....
Just when you start to entertain thoughts of a crossover, the Labour lead widens.
Hopefully we'll see the Ipsos-Mori today.
New Populus VI: Lab 37 (=); Cons 34 (=); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 12 (=); Oth 8 (=)
Sometimes, Barry Roux seems so manic, I half expect him to call some poor witness a "fokking prawn"!
Ahem, Sleazy broken UKIP on the slide!
Has he never heard of the British and Irish Lions?
A political spat has broken out after a Plaid Cymru MP questioned how Sam Warburton could captain the Wales rugby team if he considered himself British.
Warburton had said his nationality was British in response to comments from England players suggesting some of their Welsh rivals "hated" England.
Jonathan Edwards MP said on Twitter that it was hard to understand how Warburton could be skipper if he did not consider himself Welsh.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-26472782