Labour politicians shout about Dave having a problem with women. 3 Tory MPs who happen to be female are not seeking re-election. 9 Labour MPs who happen to be female are not seeking re-election. Do the maths!
Labour politicians shout about Tory toffs. David Cameron went to Eton, Tony Blair to Fettes, the Eton of Scotland. George Osborne went to St Pauls like Harriet Harman and Alistair Darling went to Loretto, the Harrow of Scotland.
Tory front benchers are rich. Labour front benchers are rich. Mr and Mrs Balls between them take well over £1/4 million a year from the taxpayer in salary, expenses etc.
The Tory education secretary was adopted and attended a well known Scottish private school so he is out of touch. His Labour shadow is an Honourable, attended an Eton-group public school but he is not out of touch.
No wonder ordinary people have little time for most politicians.
Would you look in the mirror if you looked like this?:
Labour politicians shout about Dave having a problem with women. 3 Tory MPs who happen to be female are not seeking re-election. 9 Labour MPs who happen to be female are not seeking re-election. Do the maths!
Labour politicians shout about Tory toffs. David Cameron went to Eton, Tony Blair to Fettes, the Eton of Scotland. George Osborne went to St Pauls like Harriet Harman and Alistair Darling went to Loretto, the Harrow of Scotland.
Tory front benchers are rich. Labour front benchers are rich. Mr and Mrs Balls between them take well over £1/4 million a year from the taxpayer in salary, expenses etc.
The Tory education secretary was adopted and attended a well known Scottish private school so he is out of touch. His Labour shadow is an Honourable, attended an Eton-group public school but he is not out of touch.
No wonder ordinary people have little time for most politicians.
Have you read the Lord Ashcroft article about the gender gap? It's a brilliantly argued case.
Looking good for Labour. Mid term is pretty much over people.
If the same movement occurs from now as occurred between March 2009-May 2010, the Tories will finish 1.4% ahead on polling day 2015...
It makes me think, a few people on here will see their prediction acumen in tatters if Labour gain a majority.
There are many possible outcomes, and only one actual one. It follows that most predictions will be wrong, unless everyone predicts the same thing. So if you are setting yourself up to spend May 2015-May 2020 saying "na na na nana you were wrong" to almost everyone (and I have a horrible feeling that is exactly your plan) perhaps you'd like to raise the stakes a bit by getting your own predictions out for the lads, as it were?
Compouter2 had a funny joke about moving goalposts which, when he's on form, still makes me smile but otherwise seems to be tending towards the meta-commentator approach: plenty of comments on other people's comments but precious few original ones of his own.
Compouter2! Come forth! Comment! Give an opinion!
We won't bite.
(unlike Basil, etc..)
I give you the Labour lead on tonights Yougov two hours before it was released, what more do you want?
I've just received a bill for £89.98 from EE (the phone network). The only problem is I have no knowledge of ever having requested their services. Why might this have happened? Thanks in advance.
I know the tories aren't the slick party machine that Blair ran or the Stalinist reign of terror Brown ran and therefore at times are a bit crap at running politics, but are the public so stupid to want the 70's back again? They only have to look at wales and france to see the disasters that Miliband and gang will deliver.
Looking good for Labour. Mid term is pretty much over people.
If the same movement occurs from now as occurred between March 2009-May 2010, the Tories will finish 1.4% ahead on polling day 2015...
It makes me think, a few people on here will see their prediction acumen in tatters if Labour gain a majority.
There are many possible outcomes, and only one actual one. It follows that most predictions will be wrong, unless everyone predicts the same thing. So if you are setting yourself up to spend May 2015-May 2020 saying "na na na nana you were wrong" to almost everyone (and I have a horrible feeling that is exactly your plan) perhaps you'd like to raise the stakes a bit by getting your own predictions out for the lads, as it were?
As I have predicted on many occasion, Labour will win a workable majority.
I've just received a bill for £89.98 from EE (the phone network). The only problem is I have no knowledge of ever having requested their services. Why might this have happened? Thanks in advance.
Did you have an account with one of their predecessors? (Not sure, but think it is Orange and Deutsche Telekom)
Looking good for Labour. Mid term is pretty much over people.
If the same movement occurs from now as occurred between March 2009-May 2010, the Tories will finish 1.4% ahead on polling day 2015...
It makes me think, a few people on here will see their prediction acumen in tatters if Labour gain a majority.
There are many possible outcomes, and only one actual one. It follows that most predictions will be wrong, unless everyone predicts the same thing. So if you are setting yourself up to spend May 2015-May 2020 saying "na na na nana you were wrong" to almost everyone (and I have a horrible feeling that is exactly your plan) perhaps you'd like to raise the stakes a bit by getting your own predictions out for the lads, as it were?
As I have predicted on many occasion, Labour will win a workable majority.
Looking good for Labour. Mid term is pretty much over people.
If the same movement occurs from now as occurred between March 2009-May 2010, the Tories will finish 1.4% ahead on polling day 2015...
It makes me think, a few people on here will see their prediction acumen in tatters if Labour gain a majority.
There are many possible outcomes, and only one actual one. It follows that most predictions will be wrong, unless everyone predicts the same thing. So if you are setting yourself up to spend May 2015-May 2020 saying "na na na nana you were wrong" to almost everyone (and I have a horrible feeling that is exactly your plan) perhaps you'd like to raise the stakes a bit by getting your own predictions out for the lads, as it were?
As I have predicted on many occasion, Labour will win a workable majority.
Looking good for Labour. Mid term is pretty much over people.
If the same movement occurs from now as occurred between March 2009-May 2010, the Tories will finish 1.4% ahead on polling day 2015...
It makes me think, a few people on here will see their prediction acumen in tatters if Labour gain a majority.
There are many possible outcomes, and only one actual one. It follows that most predictions will be wrong, unless everyone predicts the same thing. So if you are setting yourself up to spend May 2015-May 2020 saying "na na na nana you were wrong" to almost everyone (and I have a horrible feeling that is exactly your plan) perhaps you'd like to raise the stakes a bit by getting your own predictions out for the lads, as it were?
As I have predicted on many occasion, Labour will win a workable majority.
I've just received a bill for £89.98 from EE (the phone network). The only problem is I have no knowledge of ever having requested their services. Why might this have happened? Thanks in advance.
Identify theft I would have thought. A few years back Richard Morrison in The Times wrote about how he and his son both received BT bills, having never been BT customers.
I've just received a bill for £89.98 from EE (the phone network). The only problem is I have no knowledge of ever having requested their services. Why might this have happened? Thanks in advance.
Worse case scenario, you have become a victim of identity fraud and they are using your name/address/email to obtain their services(possibly broadband/mobile phone etc).
I know the tories aren't the slick party machine that Blair ran or the Stalinist reign of terror Brown ran and therefore at times are a bit crap at running politics, but are the public so stupid to want the 70's back again? They only have to look at wales and france to see the disasters that Miliband and gang will deliver.
The problem is that unless you are in your 50's you don't remember what the 1970's were like
I've just received a bill for £89.98 from EE (the phone network). The only problem is I have no knowledge of ever having requested their services. Why might this have happened? Thanks in advance.
Someone managed to change the address on my EE account, and order themselves a brand new handset which was sent to the new address. I have no idea how they managed to do this, given that even I do not know my customer support password. I've sent a complaint to EE but am not very confident of receiving a reply. If I don't I'll submit an official complaint to the information commissioner regarding the safeguards they have on my personal information, to which the scammer clearly had access.
If the tide is going to turn for the tories it will be after the budget and once the euro elections are over, if after conference season we still dont have crossover then the tories will have blown their chances, they have a steep hill to climb
Can anyone help me out with a problem? I've just received a bill for £89.98 from EE (the phone network). The only problem is I have no knowledge of ever having requested their services. Why might this have happened? Thanks in advance.
Looks like identity theft. A common occurence for anyone listed as a Director. Also EE's accounts was one of the most disorganised I have come across in recent years. Probably due to the rush in setting it up separate from Tmob and Orange.
If the tide is going to turn for the tories it will be after the budget and once the euro elections are over, if after conference season we still dont have crossover then the tories will have blown their chances, they have a steep hill to climb
Previous evidence (such as the response to the election that never was and the Cleggasm) suggests that the electorate are more reactionary and more prone to snap judgements than ever. As such I suspect its possible, even if unlikely because of the nature of the players, that one of the parties fortunes could rapidly change as late as the actual campaign. Timing in such matters would of course be critical.
The problem for the Tories is that I cannot think of an issue sufficiently potent (that they haven't already undermined themselves on) that could act as the catalyst for a rise in fortunes.
Can anyone help me out with a problem? I've just received a bill for £89.98 from EE (the phone network). The only problem is I have no knowledge of ever having requested their services. Why might this have happened? Thanks in advance.
Looks like identity theft. A common occurence for anyone listed as a Director. Also EE's accounts was one of the most disorganised I have come across in recent years. Probably due to the rush in setting it up separate from Tmob and Orange.
Simplest way of identity fraud is the bogus(Credit card/Payplan etc) e-mail which says it is redirecting you to your account. You hit the link and a page that looks identical to the one you usually see when you log on. You put in the details and the page goes blank(you may think the page has gone down and try again), meanwhile somewhere else in the world they have just collected your log on details. I have seen them for Amazon, Paypal, credit cards etc. They do the rounds on FB, where by when a FB account it hacked, they invite all the hacked accounts friends into a conversation. They will start the conversation with something like "do you remember this" and place a link next to it. The link opens and it is(something that looks like) the FB logging in page. Some people automatically fill in the details. Nothing happens so they try again. Again you details are being logged and your account is now hacked....the joys of t'internet.
I've just received a bill for £89.98 from EE (the phone network). The only problem is I have no knowledge of ever having requested their services. Why might this have happened? Thanks in advance.
at the moment the electorates mind isnt really focussed on whis going to run the country after GE 2015. there have been no recent political earthquakes, and the economy is pretty much steady as she goes, but the one advantage the tories have is they have their hand on economic levers and EdM doesn't, so they can work that to their advantage between now and GE2015
Imagine a Tory party run by self made individuals 50/50 split between men and women and a representative number of ethnic minorities. Labour would be in trouble.
Fortunately Dave keeps on giving his rich white mates jobs.
Imagine a Labour Party ran by self made individuals instead of people that have never had a proper job and have spent their whole career living on the taxpayers teat.
Mr Salmond said he believed that an independent Scotland would be a "powerful economic counterweight to London"
The first claim is not necessarily outlandish, at least in theory. After all,
It is hereby declared that, notwithstanding that the Republic of Ireland is not part of His Majesty’s dominions, the Republic of Ireland is not a foreign country for the purposes of any law in force in any part of the United Kingdom or in any colony, protectorate or United Kingdom trust territory, whether by virtue of a rule of law or of an Act of Parliament or any other enactment or instrument whatsoever, whether passed or made before or after the passing of this Act, and references in any Act of Parliament, other enactment or instrument whatsoever, whether passed or made before or after the passing of this Act, to foreigners, aliens, foreign countries, and foreign or foreign-built ships or aircraft shall be construed accordingly.
@Life_ina_market_town - Fair point, but there's no guarantee that such a provision would be enacted in this case. Perhaps Alex Salmond will be hoping to negotiate a similar one.
The circular firing squad in the cabinet have put their guns down. Looks like none of them have leaked anything about another cabinet minister for tomorrows press.
The usual foaming at the mouth from PB Tories scratching their heads as to how punters could reward the Tories so badly for such an amazing economic recovery.
Its very simple. For the majority of voters, they feel no recovery.
For the majority of voters they aren't going to start to feel a recovery before the election because the things that have been squashed - wages, spending power, disposable income - and the things that have exploded - rents, fuel, food, transport - aren't going to abruptly reverse position.
And telling this mass of punters that they are better off, actually, when they're not makes them think two things. That the government is mugging them off. Or that Other People are OK and they have been abandoned. Neither will make them vote the government back in.
Say what you like. This is peoples experience. Go ask the supermarkets how well off their customers are. And their customers are everyone, everywhere.
Computer2 Not clear at all, if the Tories win back a few more per cent from UKIP they could end up the largest party in another Tory-LD Coalition. Labour needs to be consistently above 40% for a majority to be assured
The Tories may well not be in touch with the voters of today and not have won an election by themselves for two generations.
But let's wait and see how long it will be in the 21st century before Labour elects a woman leader and how many decades will have passed since the Tories did the same - but in the previous century.
Labour's record re women is nothing to be proud of. No women leaders; the last Labour government run by boys for boys and proud to smear the wives and children of their opponents; women seen as decoration by their own MPs (C Flint) etc.
Frankly, I look at all 3 parties and see nothing that attracts me as a woman voter. At least with Thatcher there was a woman indisputably in charge and, regardless of whether I agreed with her specific policies, that was a refreshing change. The condescension of her opponents - whether in her own parties or others - spoke volumes about the contempt that the political classes had then - and IMO still have now - to women speaking for themselves.
Computer2 Not clear at all, if the Tories win back a few more per cent from UKIP they could end up the largest party in another Tory-LD Coalition. Labour needs to be consistently above 40% for a majority to be assured
Really? I have just put tonights figures from Yougov, the one with the lower Labour lead and with Labour at 38% into the UKPR seat predictor and they gave Labour a 44 seat majority. That is on a uniform swing and as we have seen from numerous polls from the marginals, the swing to Labour in the marginals is bigger than UWS.
Really? I have just put tonights figures from Yougov, the one with the lower Labour lead and with Labour at 38% into the UKPR seat predictor and they gave Labour a 44 seat majority. That is on a uniform swing and as we have seen from numerous polls from the marginals, the swing to Labour in the marginals is bigger than UWS.
Really? I have just put tonights figures from Yougov, the one with the lower Labour lead and with Labour at 38% into the UKPR seat predictor and they gave Labour a 44 seat majority. That is on a uniform swing and as we have seen from numerous polls from the marginals, the swing to Labour in the marginals is bigger than UWS.
Yawn...
Don't get mesmerized by the polls.
They can - and will - change...
I appreciate it's late, but try and stay awake. Do you believe "Labour needs to be consistently above 40% for a majority to be assured"? I was just pointing out the downfall of the statement.
I appreciate it's late, but try and stay awake. Do you believe "Labour needs to be consistently above 40% for a majority to be assured"? I was just pointing out the downfall of the statement.
At this point in time, it's a reasonable working assumption.
In March 2009 the Tories were on 42.1%. They obtained 36.9% in May 2010...
I've just received a bill for £89.98 from EE (the phone network). The only problem is I have no knowledge of ever having requested their services. Why might this have happened? Thanks in advance.
The usual foaming at the mouth from PB Tories scratching their heads as to how punters could reward the Tories so badly for such an amazing economic recovery.
Its very simple. For the majority of voters, they feel no recovery.
For the majority of voters they aren't going to start to feel a recovery before the election because the things that have been squashed - wages, spending power, disposable income - and the things that have exploded - rents, fuel, food, transport - aren't going to abruptly reverse position.
And telling this mass of punters that they are better off, actually, when they're not makes them think two things. That the government is mugging them off. Or that Other People are OK and they have been abandoned. Neither will make them vote the government back in.
Say what you like. This is peoples experience. Go ask the supermarkets how well off their customers are. And their customers are everyone, everywhere.
And yet people are too stupid to remember that Labour caused it all in the first place and too greedy for their handouts to understand that the money has to come from somewhere..
The usual foaming at the mouth from PB Tories scratching their heads as to how punters could reward the Tories so badly for such an amazing economic recovery.
Its very simple. For the majority of voters, they feel no recovery.
For the majority of voters they aren't going to start to feel a recovery before the election because the things that have been squashed - wages, spending power, disposable income - and the things that have exploded - rents, fuel, food, transport - aren't going to abruptly reverse position.
And telling this mass of punters that they are better off, actually, when they're not makes them think two things. That the government is mugging them off. Or that Other People are OK and they have been abandoned. Neither will make them vote the government back in.
Say what you like. This is peoples experience. Go ask the supermarkets how well off their customers are. And their customers are everyone, everywhere.
No doubt at all that wages, spending power and disposable income have all been squashed. What do you think the causes of that are?
Good morning everyone. Rochdale P is quite right. So far the vast majority of ordinary folk don’t see much, if any improvement in their standard of living. Petrol’s down a bit but it’s not far off the highest level and it still costs over £60 to fill the tank of a modest car. They also don’t see their children finding it much easier too get what they feel to be “proper” or stable jobs, or to be able to either buy or rent their own homes.
On the other hand they see a few people getting very rich indeed, and tales of house prices rising in areas where, apparently, the wealthy live only discourages them.
Cameron and Clegg say “we’re all in it together” but Cameron patently isn’t and for Clegg the mess he’s in is seen as of his own making.
The usual foaming at the mouth from PB Tories scratching their heads as to how punters could reward the Tories so badly for such an amazing economic recovery.
Its very simple. For the majority of voters, they feel no recovery.
For the majority of voters they aren't going to start to feel a recovery before the election because the things that have been squashed - wages, spending power, disposable income - and the things that have exploded - rents, fuel, food, transport - aren't going to abruptly reverse position.
And telling this mass of punters that they are better off, actually, when they're not makes them think two things. That the government is mugging them off. Or that Other People are OK and they have been abandoned. Neither will make them vote the government back in.
Say what you like. This is peoples experience. Go ask the supermarkets how well off their customers are. And their customers are everyone, everywhere.
And yet people are too stupid to remember that Labour caused it all in the first place and too greedy for their handouts to understand that the money has to come from somewhere..
Democracy is wasted on people.
Labour did not cause it all, unless you believe Gordon Brown brilliantly protected Britain from the global economic meltdown, only to fall into a quite separate and uniquely British recession.
The voteless recovery is paralleled by the voteless NHS reforms. These are not the disastrous privatisation that Labour predicted, just quietly getting on with the job in the background.
Governments rarely get credit for doing things right, the mostly get the blame for getting things wrong. It is a fairly thankless task, and affects paties of all hues.
The usual foaming at the mouth from PB Tories scratching their heads as to how punters could reward the Tories so badly for such an amazing economic recovery.
Its very simple. For the majority of voters, they feel no recovery.
For the majority of voters they aren't going to start to feel a recovery before the election because the things that have been squashed - wages, spending power, disposable income - and the things that have exploded - rents, fuel, food, transport - aren't going to abruptly reverse position.
And telling this mass of punters that they are better off, actually, when they're not makes them think two things. That the government is mugging them off. Or that Other People are OK and they have been abandoned. Neither will make them vote the government back in.
Say what you like. This is peoples experience. Go ask the supermarkets how well off their customers are. And their customers are everyone, everywhere.
And yet people are too stupid to remember that Labour caused it all in the first place and too greedy for their handouts to understand that the money has to come from somewhere..
Democracy is wasted on people.
Labour did not cause it all, unless you believe Gordon Brown brilliantly protected Britain from the global economic meltdown, only to fall into a quite separate and uniquely British recession.
I suggest that part at least of the public does believe that Labour were responsible, but only because they failed to put adequate controls in place on a market place that was populated by gamblers and spivs. And that the said gamblers and spivs now have their friends in power!
No doubt at all that wages, spending power and disposable income have all been squashed. What do you think the causes of that are?
The 30 year asset stripping of western economies by the elite, aided and abetted by political parties of all colours which they bought. The numbers are very clear when you show average wages vs wages for the elite, costs vs disposable income, purchasing power of the pound being eroded by the real rate of inflation - all over a 30 year period.
People didn't notice for ages. Reversion to mean, boiling frog syndrome, call it what you want. At the same time as wages started to be eroded and purchasing power with it there was an explosion of credit, so people were able to keep buying the new shiney shiney but instead of buying them they were borrowing the cash to buy them. The levels of credit on offer and the extent of personal indebtedness grew exponentially until the 2008 crash. At that point "an affordable homeowner loan with Ocean Finance" to pay for a holiday was no longer possible. The credit crunch reset lending requirements back 25 years - to the previous norm - but with a desperate desire for credit and little available it's no wonder economies collapsed.
As was noted below a few prices have come down a touch so that now a litre of diesel is only 50p more than the level back in 2000 that was high enough to bring the country to its knees. We have been well and truly boiled and have finally noticed. My comment on the supermarkets is all the proof you need - they say their customers are essentially broke, unable to afford the inflated prices that food commodity inflation (more bank gambling) has brought.
People are struggling to afford to eat, pay for a house, travel to work, see mass grad unemployment and average student debt heading for £50k. Then people wonder why they aren't thanking Osborne for what some of you laughingly describe as his economic genius. Nor do I think Labour have the answer (I'm not convinced this is over yet or that there is an answer) but we do recognise these problems and show voters we get it. Fear is a wonderful driver of VI, and people are afraid and increasingly angry.
I have been going on about a voteless recovery now for at least 6 months, probably longer. It is a real risk because changes in GDP mean very little to people and falls in unemployment are not that exciting if you have already got a job.
Although overall remuneration has been running ahead of inflation for a while now the perception is that wages are being squeezed and that standards of living are falling. This is true in part but people have been working longer and with more people working total pay has been ahead of inflation. Once again this does not help you if you already have a full time job and your wages have not been keeping up with inflation.
The squeeze in wages has been a major driver in the increase in employment. Those in work are not helped.
Somewhat ironically the truth is that this recovery is in fact much better based than the media would have you believe. Rather than being driven by consumption investment and construction have run ahead of overall growth. There are lots of startling statistics in this piece by David Smith which show the current perception of a short lived consumer boom is nonsense: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/
Whilst that is excellent economics it means in political terms there is even less of a "feel good" factor than the media would indicate that there ought to be.
It is not clear how much of this can change before the election. Our economy was almost destroyed by Brown and the work to rebalance it cutting the structural deficit, boosting exports, keeping wages competitive to do so and reducing the share of public spending to somewhere near what we can pay in tax without killing the economy must go on. I just fear that the tories have and will get little thanks for it.
It does, I must have led too much of a sheltered life, frankly My gob was well and truly smacked when I read the story. I suppose its just one step on from those images one sees on police reality tv of girls who are so pissed they can't stand up.
No doubt at all that wages, spending power and disposable income have all been squashed. What do you think the causes of that are?
The 30 year asset stripping of western economies by the elite, aided and abetted by political parties of all colours which they bought. The numbers are very clear when you show average wages vs wages for the elite, costs vs disposable income, purchasing power of the pound being eroded by the real rate of inflation - all over a 30 year period.
People didn't notice for ages. Reversion to mean, boiling frog syndrome, call it what you want. At the same time as wages started to be eroded and purchasing power with it there was an explosion of credit, so people were able to keep buying the new shiney shiney but instead of buying them they were borrowing the cash to buy them. The levels of credit on offer and the extent of personal indebtedness grew exponentially until the 2008 crash. At that point "an affordable homeowner loan with Ocean Finance" to pay for a holiday was no longer possible. The credit crunch reset lending requirements back 25 years - to the previous norm - but with a desperate desire for credit and little available it's no wonder economies collapsed.
As was noted below a few prices have come down a touch so that now a litre of diesel is only 50p more than the level back in 2000 that was high enough to bring the country to its knees. We have been well and truly boiled and have finally noticed. My comment on the supermarkets is all the proof you need - they say their customers are essentially broke, unable to afford the inflated prices that food commodity inflation (more bank gambling) has brought.
People are struggling to afford to eat, pay for a house, travel to work, see mass grad unemployment and average student debt heading for £50k. Then people wonder why they aren't thanking Osborne for what some of you laughingly describe as his economic genius. Nor do I think Labour have the answer (I'm not convinced this is over yet or that there is an answer) but we do recognise these problems and show voters we get it. Fear is a wonderful driver of VI, and people are afraid and increasingly angry.
Trouble with that is, it avoids the issue of agency. We rehearsed these issues when the crash occurred and so before a wave of ennui engulfs me suffice to say that first, people chose to borrow; it wasn't the military-industrial complex that forced them to accept the nought percent finance deals. And secondly we are where we are. Labour it so happens did nothing to arrest the progress of that credit expansion and the Tories are making an ok stab at it.
That's the choice you have now - wholehearted incompetence vs measured competency.
No point wondering or worrying about the "elites" and whatnot over the past few decades.
The Tories will indeed get little thanks for rescuing the country from a very dark place - or at least moving us firmly in the direction of a rescue, we're not nearly there yet. And precisely because the rescue does not yet translate to the personal experience of most voters the improvements will not result in electoral gain for the fixers.
We are very lucky as a country to have a nasty party that is prepared to do the necessary from time to time (after Labour have been in power) - even if that means a certain image attaches itself.
We are very unlucky to have a party that is brilliant at promising and seeming but which also has a genuine talent for wrecking the national finances. Every time they're in.
It is probably a good thing that wages are not noticeably rising (my own have been static for five years) as inflation would be a real threat if they were. The fact is that we were collectively living beyond our means, and are moving in the direction of living within them. It has to be done and we are now in the post party tidying up phase, having moved on from the groaning and puking hangover phase.
I have been going on about a voteless recovery now for at least 6 months, probably longer. It is a real risk because changes in GDP mean very little to people and falls in unemployment are not that exciting if you have already got a job.
Although overall remuneration has been running ahead of inflation for a while now the perception is that wages are being squeezed and that standards of living are falling. This is true in part but people have been working longer and with more people working total pay has been ahead of inflation. Once again this does not help you if you already have a full time job and your wages have not been keeping up with inflation.
The squeeze in wages has been a major driver in the increase in employment. Those in work are not helped.
Somewhat ironically the truth is that this recovery is in fact much better based than the media would have you believe. Rather than being driven by consumption investment and construction have run ahead of overall growth. There are lots of startling statistics in this piece by David Smith which show the current perception of a short lived consumer boom is nonsense: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/
Whilst that is excellent economics it means in political terms there is even less of a "feel good" factor than the media would indicate that there ought to be.
It is not clear how much of this can change before the election. Our economy was almost destroyed by Brown and the work to rebalance it cutting the structural deficit, boosting exports, keeping wages competitive to do so and reducing the share of public spending to somewhere near what we can pay in tax without killing the economy must go on. I just fear that the tories have and will get little thanks for it.
No doubt at all that wages, spending power and disposable income have all been squashed. What do you think the causes of that are?
The 30 year asset stripping of western economies by the elite, ...
... an explosion of credit, ...The levels of credit on offer and the extent of personal indebtedness grew exponentially until the 2008 crash. ...
... the inflated prices that food commodity inflation (more bank gambling) has brought.
... Nor do I think Labour have the answer (I'm not convinced this is over yet or that there is an answer) but we do recognise these problems and show voters we get it....
So essentially you are saying that despite all the hard work that has been done to fix the structural problems in the economy and financial regulation schemes which caused the above noted problems, you are willing to put back in power the people who did feck all whilst in power to rectify the problems and even created a few new ones just because they say nicer things about your hardship?
It is going to be hard being an incumbent government of whatever political hue in whatever country for a good while.
The basic problem is that we have a situation in which a large proportion of people who work hard and play by the rules, to coin a phrase, have no real prospect of seeing their living standards improving; and, often more important, see no indication that their children's lives will be any better - in fact, for most, it looks like the next generation is going to have it even worse. However, at the same time there is a very visible elite which has wealth beyond imagination. This is a global problem, not just a British one.
In the medium term the refusal of unimaginably rich individuals and corporations to countenance a more equitable division of wealth is going to cause them significant problems, but until that day it will be elected governments that suffer. Thus, we can expect Labour to be kicked out after five years if it us returned to power in 2015.
It has nothing to do with voter stupidity, ungratefulness, selfishness or anything else; it has everything to do with reacting to an economy and a system that does not work for people.
The major reason for the disparity in the VI between today and yesterday is mainly due to the split of the 2010 LibDems. Yesterday it was split 42/31 in favour of Labour and today it is 32/36 in favour of the LDs - which is more usual split..
Re: Trickle Down Effect
We are still suffering from a shortage of starter jobs that used to be filled by school leavers and by returners to work. Technology has and is continuing to eliminate all those low-skilled clerical jobs that used to exist. Hence there is a continuing shake-out in the public sector.
Those that do exist (like call centres) employ people who have no decision-making responsibility and can only parrot a set script. Theoretically that can be done anywhere is the world as long as there are no strong accents. Thus jobs are increasingly being split between the skilled thinkers and creators and the low-skilled dooers (sweepers etc).
Jobs for the unemployable and uneducated currently exist only at minimum wage level or below and these are being grabbed eagerly by immigrants, whilst the UK's unemployed exist unhealthily on unaffordable benefits.
It will be difficult to break this cycle of increasing division of fortune.
The Tories will indeed get little thanks for rescuing the country from a very dark place - or at least moving us firmly in the direction of a rescue, we're not nearly there yet. And precisely because the rescue does not yet translate to the personal experience of most voters the improvements will not result in electoral gain for the fixers.
We are very lucky as a country to have a nasty party that is prepared to do the necessary from time to time (after Labour have been in power) - even if that means a certain image attaches itself.
We are very unlucky to have a party that is brilliant at promising and seeming but which also has a genuine talent for wrecking the national finances. Every time they're in.
So, Patrick do you support the criminalisation of the Labour Party? If not, given what you think of them, why not? If so, why do you praise a Party which has never proposed to criminalise them? Didn't Maggie Herself say "there'll always be a Labour Party"?
The Tories will indeed get little thanks for rescuing the country from a very dark place - or at least moving us firmly in the direction of a rescue, we're not nearly there yet. And precisely because the rescue does not yet translate to the personal experience of most voters the improvements will not result in electoral gain for the fixers.
We are very lucky as a country to have a nasty party that is prepared to do the necessary from time to time (after Labour have been in power) - even if that means a certain image attaches itself.
We are very unlucky to have a party that is brilliant at promising and seeming but which also has a genuine talent for wrecking the national finances. Every time they're in.
A healthy dose of spite notwithstanding I do think that Lab's heart is in the right place. But if ever there was a case of not growing up and clinging onto left wing student idealism then the Labour party is it.
I think we have seen that they are manifestly not able either to run the economy or to take responsibility for their actions when faced with challenges. One of the several egregious actions they took while in office and perhaps one of the most pernicious was to exclude mortgage costs from its measure of inflation by switching from RPI(X) to CPI (HICP). This meant that although the BoE had autonomy the inflation measure it tracked didn't take into account the rampant house price inflation. (Are you listening @RochdalePioneers?)
But as I say, that was a pre-2010 conversation. My point now is that I think Lab are well-meaning but incompetent (and sometimes disingenuous) while I suppose that the Cons could be portrayed as nasty but competent (and sometimes out of touch).
It has nothing to do with voter stupidity, ungratefulness, selfishness or anything else; it has everything to do with reacting to an economy and a system that does not work for people.
This. The "free market" system of rigged and manipulated markets has broken down under the mountain of debt it created. The right want to blame people for getting into too much debt(in a system that gave people few other options and enriched the people who own/operate right wing parties) and quickly get people back into more (profit making) debt. The suggestion that Osborne is sorting out debt is laughable - the national debt is exploding, and personal debt levels also soar as forecasted in repeated Osborne budgets.
As a sales manager with a P&L to manage I have no problem with markets and profit, but they need to work for people or they fail. If people can't afford your product/service they won't buy it, so either we build a capitalist system with living wages and affordable prices or we have a revolution. Personally I would go back to the more state-led model that was OK for such communist reactionaries as Harold McMillan and Dwight Eisenhower - post WWII a smashed economy was rebuilt in the interests of people. We now have another smashed economy kept alive only by the life support of money printing and exploding debt levels. The solution is to give people money to spend, not take it off them.
Compouter2 Bt the whole point is if Tories win back some votes from UKIP, they could well end up ahead in a hung parliament, particularly if some LDs return from Labour.
Financier Some low skilled jobs like supermarket check outs are now being replaced by self-service technology. Some high skilled jobs, including journalism, are also threatened by the information available freely on the Internet
It is probably a good thing that wages are not noticeably rising (my own have been static for five years) as inflation would be a real threat if they were. The fact is that we were collectively living beyond our means, and are moving in the direction of living within them. It has to be done and we are now in the post party tidying up phase, having moved on from the groaning and puking hangover phase.
Foxinsox makes a very good point.
Because many markets for goods and services now have competitors from China, India, Brazil etc, there is a convergence of wages. Wages in former third world countries are rising as they take matket share and thos in develope countries are falling in real terms.
So computer programmers in India have a rising standard of living whilst the wages of those in the Uk must eother fall or they become unemployed.
We should welcome this more egalitarian world where people prosper on their merit and talent.
It is just a shame that in the real world, entertainment is valued more highly than more worthy activities. So Wayne Rooney is valued more highly than 99.999% of the population.
Wayne Rooney still earns less than many ceos, financiers and entrepreneurs. In any case, only a tiny fraction of those who participate in sport or entertainment get paid very high sums at the very top, eg the average actor barely gets paid the average salary and often has to do other jobs to make ends meet
Comments
http://www.standard.co.uk/incoming/article8919485.ece/BINARY/original/ed-miliband.jpg
I've just received a bill for £89.98 from EE (the phone network). The only problem is I have no knowledge of ever having requested their services. Why might this have happened? Thanks in advance.
Goaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaal !!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26442381
The problem for the Tories is that I cannot think of an issue sufficiently potent (that they haven't already undermined themselves on) that could act as the catalyst for a rise in fortunes.
I've only ever used Vodafone, pay as you go.
Suzanne Evans very good on daily pol last week
http://youtu.be/o9IO8e9z84Y
He said: "Scotland will not be a foreign country after independence"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26424658
Edit: Oh, and this bit is pretty funny too:
Mr Salmond said he believed that an independent Scotland would be a "powerful economic counterweight to London"
**Puts popcorn back in box **
Its very simple. For the majority of voters, they feel no recovery.
For the majority of voters they aren't going to start to feel a recovery before the election because the things that have been squashed - wages, spending power, disposable income - and the things that have exploded - rents, fuel, food, transport - aren't going to abruptly reverse position.
And telling this mass of punters that they are better off, actually, when they're not makes them think two things. That the government is mugging them off. Or that Other People are OK and they have been abandoned. Neither will make them vote the government back in.
Say what you like. This is peoples experience. Go ask the supermarkets how well off their customers are. And their customers are everyone, everywhere.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573094/Cameron-posh-rich-Miliband-weak-slimy-Clegg-useless-What-voters-REALLY-think-party-leaders.html
The Tories may well not be in touch with the voters of today and not have won an election by themselves for two generations.
But let's wait and see how long it will be in the 21st century before Labour elects a woman leader and how many decades will have passed since the Tories did the same - but in the previous century.
Labour's record re women is nothing to be proud of. No women leaders; the last Labour government run by boys for boys and proud to smear the wives and children of their opponents; women seen as decoration by their own MPs (C Flint) etc.
Frankly, I look at all 3 parties and see nothing that attracts me as a woman voter. At least with Thatcher there was a woman indisputably in charge and, regardless of whether I agreed with her specific policies, that was a refreshing change. The condescension of her opponents - whether in her own parties or others - spoke volumes about the contempt that the political classes had then - and IMO still have now - to women speaking for themselves.
Don't get mesmerized by the polls.
They can - and will - change...
In March 2009 the Tories were on 42.1%. They obtained 36.9% in May 2010...
Democracy is wasted on people.
They also don’t see their children finding it much easier too get what they feel to be “proper” or stable jobs, or to be able to either buy or rent their own homes.
On the other hand they see a few people getting very rich indeed, and tales of house prices rising in areas where, apparently, the wealthy live only discourages them.
Cameron and Clegg say “we’re all in it together” but Cameron patently isn’t and for Clegg the mess he’s in is seen as of his own making.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573441/No-sex-fares-taxi-drivers-told-Bizarre-warning-issued-cabbies-council-one-caught-clinch-passenger.html
Governments rarely get credit for doing things right, the mostly get the blame for getting things wrong. It is a fairly thankless task, and affects paties of all hues.
People didn't notice for ages. Reversion to mean, boiling frog syndrome, call it what you want. At the same time as wages started to be eroded and purchasing power with it there was an explosion of credit, so people were able to keep buying the new shiney shiney but instead of buying them they were borrowing the cash to buy them. The levels of credit on offer and the extent of personal indebtedness grew exponentially until the 2008 crash. At that point "an affordable homeowner loan with Ocean Finance" to pay for a holiday was no longer possible. The credit crunch reset lending requirements back 25 years - to the previous norm - but with a desperate desire for credit and little available it's no wonder economies collapsed.
As was noted below a few prices have come down a touch so that now a litre of diesel is only 50p more than the level back in 2000 that was high enough to bring the country to its knees. We have been well and truly boiled and have finally noticed. My comment on the supermarkets is all the proof you need - they say their customers are essentially broke, unable to afford the inflated prices that food commodity inflation (more bank gambling) has brought.
People are struggling to afford to eat, pay for a house, travel to work, see mass grad unemployment and average student debt heading for £50k. Then people wonder why they aren't thanking Osborne for what some of you laughingly describe as his economic genius. Nor do I think Labour have the answer (I'm not convinced this is over yet or that there is an answer) but we do recognise these problems and show voters we get it. Fear is a wonderful driver of VI, and people are afraid and increasingly angry.
Although overall remuneration has been running ahead of inflation for a while now the perception is that wages are being squeezed and that standards of living are falling. This is true in part but people have been working longer and with more people working total pay has been ahead of inflation. Once again this does not help you if you already have a full time job and your wages have not been keeping up with inflation.
The squeeze in wages has been a major driver in the increase in employment. Those in work are not helped.
Somewhat ironically the truth is that this recovery is in fact much better based than the media would have you believe. Rather than being driven by consumption investment and construction have run ahead of overall growth. There are lots of startling statistics in this piece by David Smith which show the current perception of a short lived consumer boom is nonsense: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/
Whilst that is excellent economics it means in political terms there is even less of a "feel good" factor than the media would indicate that there ought to be.
It is not clear how much of this can change before the election. Our economy was almost destroyed by Brown and the work to rebalance it cutting the structural deficit, boosting exports, keeping wages competitive to do so and reducing the share of public spending to somewhere near what we can pay in tax without killing the economy must go on. I just fear that the tories have and will get little thanks for it.
That's the choice you have now - wholehearted incompetence vs measured competency.
No point wondering or worrying about the "elites" and whatnot over the past few decades.
Comrade.
Of course scoffing kids confectionary is a well known cause of premature follicular deficiency, so the rotter will have got his just desserts.
We are very lucky as a country to have a nasty party that is prepared to do the necessary from time to time (after Labour have been in power) - even if that means a certain image attaches itself.
We are very unlucky to have a party that is brilliant at promising and seeming but which also has a genuine talent for wrecking the national finances. Every time they're in.
The basic problem is that we have a situation in which a large proportion of people who work hard and play by the rules, to coin a phrase, have no real prospect of seeing their living standards improving; and, often more important, see no indication that their children's lives will be any better - in fact, for most, it looks like the next generation is going to have it even worse. However, at the same time there is a very visible elite which has wealth beyond imagination. This is a global problem, not just a British one.
In the medium term the refusal of unimaginably rich individuals and corporations to countenance a more equitable division of wealth is going to cause them significant problems, but until that day it will be elected governments that suffer. Thus, we can expect Labour to be kicked out after five years if it us returned to power in 2015.
It has nothing to do with voter stupidity, ungratefulness, selfishness or anything else; it has everything to do with reacting to an economy and a system that does not work for people.
No, it wasn't.
The major reason for the disparity in the VI between today and yesterday is mainly due to the split of the 2010 LibDems. Yesterday it was split 42/31 in favour of Labour and today it is 32/36 in favour of the LDs - which is more usual split..
Re: Trickle Down Effect
We are still suffering from a shortage of starter jobs that used to be filled by school leavers and by returners to work. Technology has and is continuing to eliminate all those low-skilled clerical jobs that used to exist. Hence there is a continuing shake-out in the public sector.
Those that do exist (like call centres) employ people who have no decision-making responsibility and can only parrot a set script. Theoretically that can be done anywhere is the world as long as there are no strong accents. Thus jobs are increasingly being split between the skilled thinkers and creators and the low-skilled dooers (sweepers etc).
Jobs for the unemployable and uneducated currently exist only at minimum wage level or below and these are being grabbed eagerly by immigrants, whilst the UK's unemployed exist unhealthily on unaffordable benefits.
It will be difficult to break this cycle of increasing division of fortune.
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
I think we have seen that they are manifestly not able either to run the economy or to take responsibility for their actions when faced with challenges. One of the several egregious actions they took while in office and perhaps one of the most pernicious was to exclude mortgage costs from its measure of inflation by switching from RPI(X) to CPI (HICP). This meant that although the BoE had autonomy the inflation measure it tracked didn't take into account the rampant house price inflation. (Are you listening @RochdalePioneers?)
But as I say, that was a pre-2010 conversation. My point now is that I think Lab are well-meaning but incompetent (and sometimes disingenuous) while I suppose that the Cons could be portrayed as nasty but competent (and sometimes out of touch).
As a sales manager with a P&L to manage I have no problem with markets and profit, but they need to work for people or they fail. If people can't afford your product/service they won't buy it, so either we build a capitalist system with living wages and affordable prices or we have a revolution. Personally I would go back to the more state-led model that was OK for such communist reactionaries as Harold McMillan and Dwight Eisenhower - post WWII a smashed economy was rebuilt in the interests of people. We now have another smashed economy kept alive only by the life support of money printing and exploding debt levels. The solution is to give people money to spend, not take it off them.
It was utterly annihilated.
Because many markets for goods and services now have competitors from China, India, Brazil etc, there is a convergence of wages. Wages in former third world countries are rising as they take matket share and thos in develope countries are falling in real terms.
So computer programmers in India have a rising standard of living whilst the wages of those in the Uk must eother fall or they become unemployed.
We should welcome this more egalitarian world where people prosper on their merit and talent.
It is just a shame that in the real world, entertainment is valued more highly than more worthy activities. So Wayne Rooney is valued more highly than 99.999% of the population.