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Letting ‘I dare not” wait upon ‘I would,’Like the poor cat i’ the adage – politicalbetting.com

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  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827

    isam said:

    Sir Keir is a keen footballer, who often goes and watches the Arsenal. Yet listen to this and you’d think he had never heard of the game and was being fed answers by SPADs. But he wasn’t. Incredible

    Anyway, here’s Keir Starmer’s answer when he was asked who should play up front for England

    https://x.com/fistedaway/status/1575413214111834113?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    He probably couldn't bring himself to say it given Harry's former club!
    Now now, it's not very nice of you to crumple the straw that ISAM's clutching there; he's desperate to prove that Starmer is a complete duffer but so far all his attempts have come to nowt.

    This could be the key to it: Starmer hesitates on England team selection - he's blown the election hasn't he?
    Clearly trying too hard to triangulate by not picking either left wingers or right wingers.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Sir Keir is a keen footballer, who often goes and watches the Arsenal. Yet listen to this and you’d think he had never heard of the game and was being fed answers by SPADs. But he wasn’t. Incredible

    Anyway, here’s Keir Starmer’s answer when he was asked who should play up front for England

    https://x.com/fistedaway/status/1575413214111834113?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    He probably couldn't bring himself to say it given Harry's former club!
    Yes, it's pre 2022 World Cup. He obviously thought he might upset Arsenal fans, or maybe it would damage his image as a "real football fan" if he said Kane... but it's just nonsense; no one who knew anything about football would answer anyone other than Kane, no matter who they supported.

    Really weird
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    I can't wait for the election gossip to start, especially if Labour aren't confident about London.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Andy_JS said:

    I can't wait for the election gossip to start, especially if Labour aren't confident about London.

    Full 40 odd hours of London gossip to gorge on
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,848

    rcs1000 said:

    Things I learned today:




    I defy anyone not to be absolutely amazed.

    I can imagine the reaction of the Wee Free
    To Wee Free or not to Wee Free...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,643
    DavidL said:

    Has the collapse of the Bute House Agreement killed Independence stone-dead?

    No.
    Personally I think Nicola’s cowardice in 2015 killed it. At that point she had 56 of 59 Scottish MPs. If she had said they were not going to Westminster and that Scotland had voted for independence we would have had a genuine political crisis that was unlikely to be resolved with Scotland in the UK.

    Thankfully, she bottled it , played the Westminster game and the moment passed. I don’t think it will come again in my lifetime.
    Bottled isn't the word I would use.

    I think she missed her opportunity in 2021ish in the aftermath of Brexit, Boris, and Covid.

    It came down to the fact that even if No won by Indyref 2 by just one vote that would settle the issue for decades as per Quebec.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,843
    edited May 2
    Scott_xP said:

    @ScotTories

    Nicola Sturgeon’s finance secretary has now backed Nicola Sturgeon’s deputy in the contest to succeed Nicola Surgeon’s health secretary as SNP leader.

    This is a continuity government that will continue to campaign on independence and ignore the issues that really matter.

    The only issue that seemed to matter to Yousaf’s government was transgender rights. Frankly, almost anything would be closer to the people’s priorities than that.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    edited May 2
    Just voted Labour in the police and crime commissioner election (reason being they are the only party that bothered to put a leaflet in my door)

    Felt strange putting my "X" in the Lab box! Nice warm up for the general, no doubt lol!

    Guess I'm officially a comrade now? 😂
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,341
    DavidL said:

    Has the collapse of the Bute House Agreement killed Independence stone-dead?

    No.
    Personally I think Nicola’s cowardice in 2015 killed it. At that point she had 56 of 59 Scottish MPs. If she had said they were not going to Westminster and that Scotland had voted for independence we would have had a genuine political crisis that was unlikely to be resolved with Scotland in the UK.

    Thankfully, she bottled it , played the Westminster game and the moment passed. I don’t think it will come again in my lifetime.
    Yes indeed. There really was a second chance, tho I think the moment to go for it was right after the Brexit ref. The nation in turmoil, everything up in the air.. if Sturgeon had struck then, and in the way you say: refusing to send SNP MPs to Westminster - and during all the Brexit votes!?? - I can see a frightened and weak Tory party yielding a 2nd Sindyref. And very probably a YES vote, tho how it would have played out THEN God knows, all the imponderables! - but Scotland would have voted to secede and it would, eventually, have seceded

    Close call looking back. She did totally bottle it

    Now it's gone and for decades, if ever. I am not sure any Westminster government will grant another vote: they will find some reason to haver even if polls are 70/30 YES, especially so, perhaps
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    Back from popping into town, passing two polling stations on my way there and on my way back.

    Our polling station (in the C of E church): Turnout brisk - a mixture of oldies and the first of the after-work crowd.
    Polling station in town (community centre sort of place): Turnout steady - a couple of oldies, one of whom looked like an old Trot, and a bloke wearing a tie, so probably all voting Conservative.

    Lovely late afternoon for a walk too. Fine weather benefiting Labour?

    OK, so what's the difference between "brisk" and "steady" ? 🤔
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502
    DavidL said:

    Has the collapse of the Bute House Agreement killed Independence stone-dead?

    No.
    Personally I think Nicola’s cowardice in 2015 killed it. At that point she had 56 of 59 Scottish MPs. If she had said they were not going to Westminster and that Scotland had voted for independence we would have had a genuine political crisis that was unlikely to be resolved with Scotland in the UK.

    Thankfully, she bottled it , played the Westminster game and the moment passed. I don’t think it will come again in my lifetime.
    It was a remarkable occasion, but even then the SNP failed (just) to get 50% of the vote, and a new referendum was impossible because there had just been one. So I think an SF style tactic would not have worked. The fact could not be avoided that Scotland had just said 'No' loud and clear.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,885
    Evening all :)

    Voted at lunchtime. Quiet not so much in terms of people voting but none of the usual theatre which accompanies elections in East Ham. Candidates and activists stand outside the polling station trying to accost voters on the way in to vote. At the by-election last July, it got so bad the Police were called by the Presiding Officer who basically told both Labour and Conservative activists the rules about telling and speaking to voters which quietened things down.

    No one about today - the real battles in the Outer London suburbs, I suppose. As to whether you should be confident two or three hours BEFORE the polls close, of close you shouldn't. It's all about getting the vote out at this stage and there are a number of local council by-elections in London as well today.

    My understanding is we'll know the mayoral result tomorrow afternoon and the GLA results on Saturday. Three ballot boxes - one for the Mayor, one for the GLA Constituency and one for the GLA top up seats.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    GIN1138 said:

    Back from popping into town, passing two polling stations on my way there and on my way back.

    Our polling station (in the C of E church): Turnout brisk - a mixture of oldies and the first of the after-work crowd.
    Polling station in town (community centre sort of place): Turnout steady - a couple of oldies, one of whom looked like an old Trot, and a bloke wearing a tie, so probably all voting Conservative.

    Lovely late afternoon for a walk too. Fine weather benefiting Labour?

    OK, so what's the difference between "brisk" and "steady" ? 🤔
    Brisk is 27.5% more than steady
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,661
    GIN1138 said:

    Back from popping into town, passing two polling stations on my way there and on my way back.

    Our polling station (in the C of E church): Turnout brisk - a mixture of oldies and the first of the after-work crowd.
    Polling station in town (community centre sort of place): Turnout steady - a couple of oldies, one of whom looked like an old Trot, and a bloke wearing a tie, so probably all voting Conservative.

    Lovely late afternoon for a walk too. Fine weather benefiting Labour?

    OK, so what's the difference between "brisk" and "steady" ? 🤔
    We need a Beaufort scale for turnout.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Has the collapse of the Bute House Agreement killed Independence stone-dead?

    No.
    Personally I think Nicola’s cowardice in 2015 killed it. At that point she had 56 of 59 Scottish MPs. If she had said they were not going to Westminster and that Scotland had voted for independence we would have had a genuine political crisis that was unlikely to be resolved with Scotland in the UK.

    Thankfully, she bottled it , played the Westminster game and the moment passed. I don’t think it will come again in my lifetime.
    Yes indeed. There really was a second chance, tho I think the moment to go for it was right after the Brexit ref. The nation in turmoil, everything up in the air.. if Sturgeon had struck then, and in the way you say: refusing to send SNP MPs to Westminster - and during all the Brexit votes!?? - I can see a frightened and weak Tory party yielding a 2nd Sindyref. And very probably a YES vote, tho how it would have played out THEN God knows, all the imponderables! - but Scotland would have voted to secede and it would, eventually, have seceded

    Close call looking back. She did totally bottle it

    Now it's gone and for decades, if ever. I am not sure any Westminster government will grant another vote: they will find some reason to haver even if polls are 70/30 YES, especially so, perhaps
    Disagree with the final point. If (may it never happen) there were a consistent 60%+ support in polling for independence, with similar polling figures in elections, a fresh referendum would be unstoppable.

    The SNPs difficulty is that the sustained support they need is not there, and on current plans isn't going to be. Current plans do not involve persuasion of centre right and centre left or the demonstration of competence in government way above the UK (dismal) level.

    The SNP 'anyone but Forbes' folk are doing unionists work for us. Thanks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,643

    NEW THREAD

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502
    rcs1000 said:

    Things I learned today:




    I defy anyone not to be absolutely amazed.

    On the other hand as there is an infinite number of prime numbers there is no reason why there shouldn't be a large number of primes with fancy sequences of demonic digits dancing around in the middle. Plenty to choose from.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,885
    I see the YouGov poll has attracted plenty of comment.

    @MoonRabbit seems to think a deal will be done between Reform and the Conservatives and that will send all or nearly all the Reform support back to the Conservatives and I and others are wrong to think otherwise.

    That's an opinion and @MoonRabbit is entitled to it - I don't really know what the Conservatives can offer Reform to do a deal. Indeed, one could argue the bigger the defeat for the Conservatives the more likely Reform will effect a hostile post-election takeover and basically merge the parties by stealth or wealth or both.

    There's also the suggestion an avalanche of "good news" will bury any doubts and allow a re-invigorated Sunak to go to the country with confidence in early July. It's possible as are most things in this life but I fail to see how this damascene conversion of millions back to the Conservatives in the light of the last four years (and especially the last two) is going to happen.

    It doesn't matter what any of us think - time will tell, it always does. I'd also offer the thought just because something has never happened doesn't mean it can't. Sunak COULD reverse a 20-point deficit, Corbyn nearly did in 2017 and the Conservatives could get below 100 seats (they weren't that far from it in 1997).
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    GIN1138 said:

    Back from popping into town, passing two polling stations on my way there and on my way back.

    Our polling station (in the C of E church): Turnout brisk - a mixture of oldies and the first of the after-work crowd.
    Polling station in town (community centre sort of place): Turnout steady - a couple of oldies, one of whom looked like an old Trot, and a bloke wearing a tie, so probably all voting Conservative.

    Lovely late afternoon for a walk too. Fine weather benefiting Labour?

    OK, so what's the difference between "brisk" and "steady" ? 🤔
    Brisk is the election officials are incompetent and can’t issue ballot papers quickly enough. Steady means they occasionally have to turn their attention away from the crossword to dish out a ballot paper.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,508

    Has the collapse of the Bute House Agreement killed Independence stone-dead?

    No.

    But the one line alone from the header “that a just transition to ‘net zero’ must work with, and not against, our communities and businesses” likely hands over more SNP voters and General Election seats to Labour, not less.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Nigelb said:

    Getting Vonshitzenpants into the court record was perhaps not the smartest move my Trump's attorney.

    https://www.meidastouch.com/news/summary-of-trump-contempt-hearing
    ...Blanche then complained about several of Cohen's social media posts about Trump, including one where he said that he wouldn't put any money in his prison commissary and one where he referred to Trump as "Vonshitzenpants," which resulted in laugher from the audience in the courtroom. He then argued that Cohen is going on TikTok every night disparaging Trump and making money off it. He closed by saying, "This is not a man who needs protection from a gag order."

    Merchan then wanted Blanche to focus his arguments on the violation about the jury that he seemed most concerned about. Blanche argued that since Trump was talking about the jury as a whole instead of one particular juror, then it isn't a violation. Merchan seemed incredulous at that argument. ..

    Blanche would be facing contempt charges too - if he weren't so dumb.

    He'd previously lost the right to be taken seriously by the judge. How much lower can he plumb?
    Follow the money . . . or in this case (and a few others) follow the certified cashier's check(s).
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    What people who say "the SNP may be falling apart, but support for independence is still strong" fail to accept is that there is no other real party of independence. The practical steps that lead to separation and the break up of the UK requires a clear majority to vote for it in both the Scottish Parliament and in Westminster. That majority does not come from Alba or the Greens. The truth is that there is no path to independence without the SNP or something very like it winning such a majority.

    Many old Nats are still fighting 2014 and seem to think that Salmond can still pull something out of the fire, but apart from everything else, Salmond turns 70 this year, and Moira, his wife is 87 and in very poor health. its just not happening. So, the likely heavy losses at the GE for the SNP pushes back independence a very long way. If that is repeated in the elections for the Scottish Parliament then we really are talking decades before there is any prospect of separation, even if the SNP recovered in one or two electoral cycles, and that is not s sure thing either. So Kate Forbes may well have missed not only her chance, but also condemning the SNP to return to irrelevance and even if all things go well in the future, she will already be in late middle age before such a chance came again.

    So I think Scottish politics will change radically over the next two years and not in favour of the SNP.
This discussion has been closed.