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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m not convinced that Boris will stand for parliament at GE2015
The timing of the London Mayoral terms was always going to be a problem for Boris assuming that he wants to get back to the Commons and, possibly, run for the leadership when a vacancy comes up.
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Good afternoon, everyone.
Worst day yet for Red Bull. Vettel got in four corners. Not even half an installation lap.
Edited extra bit: as a point of comparison, Caterham's Ericsson (with a Renault engine) has got in over 100 laps. It's not down just to Renault, the Red Bull itself is wrong.
On-topic: couldn't he do both for a limited period of time?
“@Ed_Miliband: The battle to change our party is over. The fight for the future of Britain has just begun." > Very, very Churchillian.
I was thinking more Gandalf at the end of the Two Towers film....
93% Tory , 91% UKIP, 84% lib dem ,30% Green 29% BNP 25% Labour -seems about right in terms of order I would choose to vote for
That surely can't be the totality of why he wouldn't do it? Boris is well used to 'messy' by now and seems to thrive on it most of the time. I also somehow doubt he'd be all that bothered about the difference in emphasis between Mayoral and Westminster politics.
What he would be faced with is endless speculation about being the next tory leader but it's not as if he isn't getting plenty of that as it is.
"There would also be the danger in a mayoral by-election of the Tories losing – not something that the blues would like."
It does depend on the seat to a great degree but if anyone could mobilise the tory grassroots it would the the tory conference darling of the past few years.
The flipside to a loss is that a solid win for the tories in a by-election would be treated with analloyed joy and perk them up when they have very little to be happy about right now.
Slightly embarrassing (actually a bit surprising as I think I agree with about 50% of current Labour policy). The most striking thing is that you and I appear to be almost equally (and highly) supportive of Lib Dem policies, but have opposite positions on Lab and Con. I can't see a model that would produce that pair of results unless it attributes a large number of contradictory policies to the Lib Dems, and I'm sure that would be *hugely* unfair.
Unite - which has given Labour £11m since Mr MIliband became leader - will hold a meeting of its executive next week to discuss cutting its Labour affiliation.
http://news.sky.com/story/1219376/labour-party-backs-historic-miliband-reforms
Could be interesting, since it looks as if the COOP cash flow might be drying up too.
Why do we still think Ed is crap? Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at the Excel Centre this morning must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-i-ll-back-independence-if-there-s-no-second-question-says-labour-figure-1-2280472
All intend to vote NO! The 17 year old “might"change her mind.
But I think he'll run again for Mayor. Enough of the party apparently don't want him as leader, the timing is difficult, and he might consider that being nationally prominent but not constrained by the leadership is better than trying and failing, and obviously many Tories are worried about how to hold on to the city when Boris does step down.
Well, I took OGH's political quiz - LD first, Green second, Plaid Cymru third with Conservatives and UKIP at the end so no real surprise for me either,
On-topic, Boris made his position crystal clear in the latter stages of the 2012 election when he looked threatened in some polls by a resurgent Ken. He publicly stated he would not seek to return to Westminster during the term of his Mayoralty so that, as Mike says, takes us to 2016.
IF he wants to resign as Mayor, fair enough. If he doesn't wish to seek another term in 2016 and stand down, also fair enough. This has always been the calculated gamble for Boris - he can either be a big fish in a smallish pond or be a medium-sized fish in a bigger pond. Would he want to be an Opposition backbencher and constituency MP after being London Mayor ?
I suspect he's no certainty for Conservative leader - George Osborne and Theresa May, among others, have time to organise among the MPs and unless Boris can get to the final two, whatever strength he has among ordinary Conservative Members won't mean a thing.
Counterfactual histories already exist under the title of "Prime Ministers who might have been" featuring Boris.
This morning Farage declared to conference that, "We are marching forward in strength". While Putin mobilised troops already mobilised, and said, "We are marching forward in strength to help our bretheren in Ukraine.
I assume you're not seriously labouring under the impression that the Yes side is a spin free zone!
You would need a heart of stone not to laugh.
Probably, but I don't see it as definitive. The situation has changed, I had to answer the call, etc etc, there are any number of ways he could claim that while that was his firm intention at the time, he now feels obligated to get to parliament sooner.
[Boris] can either be a big fish in a smallish pond or be a medium-sized fish in a bigger pond. Would he want to be an Opposition backbencher and constituency MP after being London Mayor
That's the key for me. I think he'd prefer to stay as a big fish in a small pond than risk not suceeding in the big pond and end up with nothing.
http://live.wsj.com/video/opinion-will-britain-break-up/8D276611-6530-4056-9EB9-F34629F5CEDA.html#!8D276611-6530-4056-9EB9-F34629F5CEDA
He has to cash in his Mayoral success sooner or later unless he really is entirely happy with being Mayor. It's quite telling how often he strays into tory and party politics beyond his remit and I don't think anyone has ever accused him of a lack of ambition. Getting bored easily, yes. That cuts both ways. Sure he might well get very bored with being a constituency MP again but what else does he really want to do as Mayor and is the allure of that beginning to lose it's charm? It's also much better to leave on a high note as he won't have missed just how diminished Livingstone became after doing this for so long and then losing. He also won't have missed that he still didn't beat Livingstone by that much so Boris must know that future Mayoral wins are hardly guaranteed.
It all comes down to Boris and if he was unhappy about all this speculation he has a spin operation of his own to kill it if he really wanted to.
NO: 100
YES: 0
This one is even better. Yes, I know. It appears to be a Paul Staines style rumour site so these are hardly predictions to be relied on to say the least. However, it's colourful stuff and who thought little Ed would embark a Clegg decapitation strategy?
A Tory plant at the heart of UKIP and in its London HQ say that instead of their Leader running a parliamentary election race in Thanet or Boston and Skegness, Nigel Farage is in actual fact "planning to stand against Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam", TBG can sensationally reveal.
The plans so far in motion include using UKIP's 2015 Spring Conference to launch their General Election Campaign in the city of Sheffield.
Another rumour doing the rounds for sometime now is that Mike Hancock MP is calling it a day and that there is going to be a by-election in his seat in late May to coincide with the European Elections.
A Tory plant at the heart of UKIP! *chortle* So that's what the Hamilton's are up to.
Lars Pellinat @Lars9596 18m
BREAKING: "Foreign Office has received clearance from Baroness Ashton to raise the alert level to tea with two sugars." #Ukraine #Crimea #UK
A tale of Two Cities and campaigns:
No - http://tinyurl.com/puwd6s6
Yes - http://tinyurl.com/od2t8s4
Of course all the other BTers may be temporarily off for a roll and squerr sossidge, and the Yes-ers are SNP councillors camouflaged as civvies for the day.
There are too many big fishes in smallish political ponds.
Boris is real meat.
I saw four Yes campaigners near my flat recently. Then a few days later four No campaigners at the train station. I didn't think it told me a great deal to be honest.
By his own admission, he's a One-Nation Tory - is that what the party will go for post-Cameron ? I suspect not.
UKIP 88%
You do hit on the sticking point for all the future tory leadership hopefuls however. If Cameron loses then there's no way at all that Europe and IN or OUT doesn't become a massive issue for the contenders. It would be a far more ideological race than last time when it was all about the tories getting their own Blair impersonator to try and detox them. In the kind of policy driven contest that would follow a Cammie loss, after all that the kippers have done to shape the debate, it's very far from clear who would win. You would have spoiler candidates trying to split the vote and anything could happen.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/snp-supporters-caught-posing-pictures-2111409
Gary Lineker, BBC Sport
Join the debate at #bbcfootball
"Alan Pardew has just head-butted David Meyler. Yes head-butted. Inexcusable from a manager."
This report led to the Federation Council formally urging Putin to:
take exhaustive measures, all possible measures, to ensure the security of our citizens living in Ukraine, help our brotherly Ukrainian people achieve stabilisation and channel the current crisis into a civilised legal track
Putin's letter in response addressed:
the use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the territory of Ukraine pending normalisation of the public and political situation in that country.
Further details of Putin's letter have not been published, but a statement by Valentina Matviyenko [a Ukrainian name!], Chair of the Federation Council indicates that Russia is not prepared to accept that the process followed in the Ukraine has led to a lawful constitutional or political changes.
The text of Matviyenko's statement has been released by ITAR-TASS. Here are the key paragraphs:
“The agreement [of February 21] clearly determined the sequence of steps. A constitutional reform first - it was supposed to be carried out with broad participation of public and political forces and regions in order to work out a consensus-based document that would be supported by all people in Ukraine. According to international practices, such serious documents should be adopted in a national referendum,” Matviyenko said.
Having expressed regret that this had not happened, she noted that “the speed with which presidential elections have been announced [in Ukraine] puts its legitimacy in question.”
“The agreement calls for forming a government of national accord, which means that it should include representatives of all political forces. In reality we see that the government, which was approved to the stomping of the Maidan, did not include all political forces and was formed from opposition parties only,” Matviyenko observed.
She also said that “the heads of regions were not summoned for consultation.” So “we can understand why there are protests in regions, except for Western regions of Ukraine,” she added.
Matviyenko called for finding “a calm, civilised and legal solution to the crisis” and stressed that “there is no need to demonstrate high political and diplomatic culture in this case because we can see that this is neither appreciated nor understood, and most importantly the security of people will not be ensured.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/running-scared/
(not really)
This is Boris's strength. If Cameron plans to stand down after a successful EU referendum result then Boris may be the best front for post-austerity Conservative Party. In this scenario little would really change as Osborne would continue to run the government and party.
Of course, intervening events might preclude such an outcome but no true Tory would be prepared to give this possibility serious consideration.
Personally I find it an endearing trait.
Seriously, what it is with the left sometimes? If you consider the Iraq War illegal, which is a position I have some sympathy with, then surely sending in troops to a foreign country on the basis that the new government doesn't like you much is far worse? It makes me think they don't give a damn about international law - they just hate the West and the United States so will use it is a convenient weapon to hit them over the head with.
newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/7806-labour-for-independence-photo-was-doctored-by-better-together
Stories are coming out about a US intelligence failure on Russian plans for Ukraine.
The raw intelligence information was there but for some reason the analysis was up the left.
The next part regarding Crimea should be more predictable. Couple of on the ground 'incidents' justifying the Russian presence on the streets. The reports of how Western intelligence backed the street level coup are already appearing in the Russian media so that field is already being ploughed.
In reality the latter is true. A number of Western official had contacts with the street fighting element who drove Yanukovych's ousting, but its not who you might expect.
By the way, the Russian military and security agencies are to be seen outside the Crimea and on other parts of Ukrainian territory playing up to events. For those who think Crimea is a special case that Russia is restricting itself to, forget it. There are a few below the radar interventions elsewhere.
This on the recent authority provided to Putin by Russia's Federation Council:
“The consent the president received does not mean literally that he will exercise this right immediately,” he said, adding that the size of the Russian contingent in Ukraine was not in question.
“That’s not being considered now. One must understand correctly a) the president’s appeal, and b) the Federation Council’s consent,” the diplomat noted.
Karasin said that the Federation Council’s consent meant only that the president has been given the free hand in case the situation deteriorates. “Today’s consent given to the president for the use of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine [pending normalisation in the situation in that country] means only that the president has the free hand [to act] if the situation gets worse,” Karasin said.
The phoney war builds.
Mr. kle4, Gandalf benefited from his primary opponent (Sauron) being a bloody moron. There was one place the ring could be destroyed. It was deep in Sauron's territory, but he didn't have a single bloody orc guarding the place.
However I scored as having "No Major Issues" in common with the Yellows, Reds or Greens which cheered me up.
'I'm delighted you think that is a metaphor for how the campaign is going. Although I very much doubt you actually believe that yourself. Out of interest do you think the outcome will be based on raw numbers or photos?'
Photos,about all that's left.
Admiral of the Ukrainian navy. Some poor guy has just been appointed just as a number of Russian vessels are heading towards Ukrainian navy ships in the Crimea area.
It isn't surprising though that the government has moved to appoint someone new. I mentioned the other night how the Russians were speaking with their Ukrainian military counterparts about 'bringing stability'. Not long after it was noticeable that a number of senior officers, particularly in the Ukrainian navy, started to be laid low by sickness.
Kiev fears their military is not fully under its control. We'll soon know.
@sajidjavid: Direct link between Miliband's cynical vote against #Syria motion & Russia's actions on #Ukraine. Completely unfit to lead Britain
The best appointment of all in this crisis has come from the EU.
European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fule said this might help resolve the crisis and normalize the situation in Ukraine.
As any Eurocrat kno.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_cencus_2001_Russian.svg
This is not a military battle or war.
It is a diplomatic fight which can only be resolved with an economic solution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_cencus_2001_Russian.svg
Revolutions rarely produce good governments, though paradoxically failed revolutions often lead to concessions and progress.
This is the most likely outcome of the current crisis.
They are not as yet turning up in military gear in the flashpoint cities noted below in posts.
They never said he was a Labour supporter who hopes to stand to be Labour mayor of London. Rather a big omission IMHO, and not the first time they've had him as an 'independent'.
This will all happen slice by slice. First Crimea. Then Donetsk. Then all of eastern Ukraine. Then the entirety. At what point does the West react? If nothing, how long before Russia starts to eye its historical territory in the Baltic?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10667111/Ukraine-pleads-for-Britain-and-US-to-come-to-its-rescue-as-Russia-accused-of-invasion.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9663457/William-Hague-stifled-1996-paedophile-report-says-victim.html
Meanwhile some shooting has broken out in one of the areas occupied by Russian forces. We'll see shortly if its a one off or sustained.
Well, that's totally f'king unhelpful
What Russia wants to avoid is a splitting of its pan-Slavic sphere of influence. So it will resist NATO, EU and US encroachment.
The solution to the political problems in The Ukraine is economic regeneration. This comes with a heavy cost so provided Russia can be assured of its regional interests, the most likely outcome of this crisis will be a deal struck between the EU, IMF, Russia and a 'representative and inclusive' government in The Ukraine.
The only Russians wanting to march into former Soviet republics are the Zhirinovsky oddbods. That's Liberal Democratic parties for you!
Thought we weren't allowed to comment on that general topic?
And the article you've linked to is from November 2012.