The enthusiasm gap – politicalbetting.com

System

The enthusiasm gap – politicalbetting.com

Of course, with 58% unfavourable towards the Conservatives maybe it doesnt matter https://t.co/1K63vkJhwQ

Read the full story here

tlg86

I'm of the opinion that oppositions do win elections, but the current government is testing that to destruction!

The manifesto is probably the last danger point for Labour. They need to get the balance right between not being too adventurous with not appearing too conservative.

Heathener

You may be correct @TSE but the questions are leading and probably misleading.

Even I wouldn’t have been able to answer that I was confident Labour could provide it.

This country has too many problems for Labour to sort out for a very long time, if at all.

But that won’t decide the election. It won’t be a landslide because of enthusiasm for anything. It will be a landslide to kick the Conservatives out to touch, beyond the stands, and into the streets beyond.

IanB2

For the election itself, it probably doesn’t matter, but for what comes after, it most certainly will.

Unless Starmer and his team step into the telephone box after election, they won’t be getting the extended honeymoon that Blair got. And to tackle the immense problems facing the country in any sort of meaningful way inevitably means upsetting some people, and it is far from clear that they have either the required insight, determination or stomach.

It is however good news for the minor parties, since opponents of the government in their key target seats will be more easily persuaded to vote tactically if those voters aren’t bursting to put their X against Labour in the first place, and just want to see the back of the Tories.

MikeL

Interesting article re abortion in the US.

Says a Trump White House could impose a nationwide ban on abortion by enforcing the 1873 Comstock Act. No need for any new legislation to go through Congress.

"The Comstock Act, championed by anti-vice crusader Anthony Comstock and passed in 1873, made it a federal crime to send or receive any material deemed "obscene, lewd or lascivious". The statute makes specific mention of birth control and abortion, barring any materials designed or intended for "the prevention of conception or procuring of abortion"."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68580015

JosiasJessop

MikeL said:

Interesting article re abortion in the US.

Says a Trump White House could impose a nationwide ban on abortion by enforcing the 1873 Comstock Act. No need for any new legislation to go through Congress.

"The Comstock Act, championed by anti-vice crusader Anthony Comstock and passed in 1873, made it a federal crime to send or receive any material deemed "obscene, lewd or lascivious". The statute makes specific mention of birth control and abortion, barring any materials designed or intended for "the prevention of conception or procuring of abortion"."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68580015

I remember a very wise poster back in 2016 stating that things could go backwards in the US. Most other posters disagreed.

I'm too humble to name that poster, but it's one area that he's sad he was right about.

MattW

Good morning everyone.

It's quite nice to have woken up at a normal-ish time for once.

JosiasJessop

"Faulty smart meters rise to nearly four million"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz9zqn77ezno

We've resisted the constant pleadings of our energy supplier to get a smart meter. So far, at least...

Foxy

IanB2 said:

For the election itself, it probably doesn’t matter, but for what comes after, it most certainly will.

Unless Starmer and his team step into the telephone box after election, they won’t be getting the extended honeymoon that Blair got. And to tackle the immense problems facing the country in any sort of meaningful way inevitably means upsetting some people, and it is far from clear that they have either the required insight, determination or stomach.

It is however good news for the minor parties, since opponents of the government in their key target seats will be more easily persuaded to vote tactically if those voters aren’t bursting to put their X against Labour in the first place, and just want to see the back of the Tories.

Maybe not a long honeymoon, but Labour will have more than 1 term, and likely shed voters to Greens, LD, SNP, PC etc.

I would expect two terms as even a disappointing Starmer government is going to be preferred to a return of the Tory fiasco. The chances of a resurgent Tory party are negligible in the first term.

IanB2

JosiasJessop said:

"Faulty smart meters rise to nearly four million"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz9zqn77ezno

We've resisted the constant pleadings of our energy supplier to get a smart meter. So far, at least...

Yes, I got fed up with my supplier's incessant attempts to get me to have one, as well.

As it happens, I met the guy who instals them on the island, while he was doing some other electrical works, and he had some horror stories to share, including people cut off from supply altogether when the meter's comms failed to connect. He said he currently has as many jobs on hand to remove installed smart meters as he does to instal new ones.

bondegezou

IanB2 said:

For the election itself, it probably doesn’t matter, but for what comes after, it most certainly will.

Unless Starmer and his team step into the telephone box after election, they won’t be getting the extended honeymoon that Blair got. And to tackle the immense problems facing the country in any sort of meaningful way inevitably means upsetting some people, and it is far from clear that they have either the required insight, determination or stomach.

It is however good news for the minor parties, since opponents of the government in their key target seats will be more easily persuaded to vote tactically if those voters aren’t bursting to put their X against Labour in the first place, and just want to see the back of the Tories.

Why won’t Starmer get a honeymoon period? People will respond to (what we can presume will be) a decisive win and want to give the new government a chance. People will have hope.

We’ve discussed before that the electorate were uncertain about Blair until his win. The same will happen with Starmer, I expect.

Foxy

That top bar chart is damning. Only 5% think we don't need a new team of politicians in charge.

Eabhal

IanB2 said:

JosiasJessop said:

"Faulty smart meters rise to nearly four million"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz9zqn77ezno

We've resisted the constant pleadings of our energy supplier to get a smart meter. So far, at least...

Yes, I got fed up with my supplier's incessant attempts to get me to have one, as well.

As it happens, I met the guy who instals them on the island, while he was doing some other electrical works, and he had some horror stories to share, including people cut off from supply altogether when the meter's comms failed to connect. He said he currently has as many jobs on hand to remove installed smart meters as he does to instal new ones.

I had a sustained fight (spreadsheets and models were deployed) with my provider when I switched to a smart meter at my old place. They pissed about with the estimates when it didn't send the correct data across for a few months.

I have refused to get one installed in my current flat on that basis.

ydoethur

Foxy said:

That top bar chart is damning. Only 5% think we don't need a new team of politicians in charge.

Personally, I'm in that 5%.

I'd rather have sane people in charge than politicians. Or indeed civil servants.

BatteryCorrectHorse

The only good thing a massive Labour majority will do is clear out the Tory Party so it can start again.

Cleitophon

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Alanbrooke

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Starmer doesnt do bold he does cautious.

Stuartinromford

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

That top bar chart is damning. Only 5% think we don't need a new team of politicians in charge.

Personally, I'm in that 5%.

I'd rather have sane people in charge than politicians. Or indeed civil servants.

Unfortunately, that's where the Beeblebrox Paradox kicks in.

Seeking high office is a contraindicator for having the sanity to exercise high office well. See Boris Johnson for an extreme example of this.

Also see Boris Johnson for an example of someone who rated badly but still won a big victory because his opponent rated a lot worse. The Kier:Rishi ratings are pretty similar to the Boris:Jez ones.

OldKingCole

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

I hope you’re right; it certainly doesn’t feel, to me anyway, like 1997 all over again. The labour party certainly isn’t giving a confidence that it gave then.

And in spite of, the sentiments there, a good morning to one and all!

Foxy

Alanbrooke said:

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Starmer doesnt do bold he does cautious.

I think his internal purge of the Trots, including withdrawing the whip from the former leader and former shadow Home Sec pretty bold.

Starmer looks to me the exact opposite of Sunak. Under-promise and over-deliver rather than over-promise and under-deliver.

Cleitophon

Alanbrooke said:

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Starmer doesnt do bold he does cautious.

I think you are right. He is systematic and organized and he will not expose himself to the risk of declaring a risky project before all his duck are in a row. But what I do see in his character is good governance and when he does begin implementing it will be with competence. We have become so used to the tories jumping off a cliff and try to build their wings on the way down only to make a crash landing that we can barely recognise political prudence anymore. Let's see. I would be fine with carefully thought though implementation for a change.

Eabhal

Major disaster in Baltimore popping up on my phone. Looks like a ship has hit a bridge.

Not 100% sure of course, could be AI...

Alanbrooke

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Starmer doesnt do bold he does cautious.

I think his internal purge of the Trots, including withdrawing the whip from the former leader and former shadow Home Sec pretty bold.

Starmer looks to me the exact opposite of Sunak. Under-promise and over-deliver rather than over-promise and under-deliver.

Well we will see what Starmer actually does if he gets in to power. I;m ( unsurprisingly ) in the camp that says hes Continuity Sunak. That comes not just from the view of his character but from the hard reality that he inherits the same problems as RS and has the same limited space for manoeuvre.

maxh

Alanbrooke said:

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Starmer doesnt do bold he does cautious.

Perhaps he has fooled you (and 95% of the population as a whole) with his tactics.

Perhaps the manifesto will be bold and radical as Cleitophon says.

I cling to this idea more in hope than expectation: if I were a master tactician advising Starmer I’d have advised pretty much exactly what he has done so far - pull out all the stops to seem as unthreatening as you can to traditional Tory voters, embed the ‘no way back’ narrative for the Tories, before releasing a manifesto full of details in which you bury some pretty radical proposals, hoping that the ferocious Tory attacks on these radical proposals don’t land with the electorate because they’re no longer listening to the Tories.

The argument against this is Theresa May’s ‘dementia tax’. I imagine in Labour HQ there are currently pitched battles as to whether Starmer risks the equivalent ‘bold’ manifesto or keeps with the small target strategy. I hope for the former but accept I am hoping not expecting.

Foxy

maxh said:

Alanbrooke said:

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Starmer doesnt do bold he does cautious.

Perhaps he has fooled you (and 95% of the population as a whole) with his tactics.

Perhaps the manifesto will be bold and radical as Cleitophon says.

I cling to this idea more in hope than expectation: if I were a master tactician advising Starmer I’d have advised pretty much exactly what he has done so far - pull out all the stops to seem as unthreatening as you can to traditional Tory voters, embed the ‘no way back’ narrative for the Tories, before releasing a manifesto full of details in which you bury some pretty radical proposals, hoping that the ferocious Tory attacks on these radical proposals don’t land with the electorate because they’re no longer listening to the Tories.

The argument against this is Theresa May’s ‘dementia tax’. I imagine in Labour HQ there are currently pitched battles as to whether Starmer risks the equivalent ‘bold’ manifesto or keeps with the small target strategy. I hope for the former but accept I am hoping not expecting.

I wouldn't expect a great deal in the manifesto. Aspiration and verbosity will characterise it, but little concrete that will inhibit manoeuvre in office. Its not as if manifestos mean much. What happened to the Tories plan for Social Care, 40 new hospitals etc?

Alanbrooke

maxh said:

Alanbrooke said:

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Starmer doesnt do bold he does cautious.

Perhaps he has fooled you (and 95% of the population as a whole) with his tactics.

Perhaps the manifesto will be bold and radical as Cleitophon says.

I cling to this idea more in hope than expectation: if I were a master tactician advising Starmer I’d have advised pretty much exactly what he has done so far - pull out all the stops to seem as unthreatening as you can to traditional Tory voters, embed the ‘no way back’ narrative for the Tories, before releasing a manifesto full of details in which you bury some pretty radical proposals, hoping that the ferocious Tory attacks on these radical proposals don’t land with the electorate because they’re no longer listening to the Tories.

The argument against this is Theresa May’s ‘dementia tax’. I imagine in Labour HQ there are currently pitched battles as to whether Starmer risks the equivalent ‘bold’ manifesto or keeps with the small target strategy. I hope for the former but accept I am hoping not expecting.

Starmer is probably pretty much as he comes across, cautious, legalistic and reactive.

He makes a three day old bowl of dishwater seem like a crystal clear alpine stream.

Stuartinromford

maxh said:

Alanbrooke said:

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Starmer doesnt do bold he does cautious.

Perhaps he has fooled you (and 95% of the population as a whole) with his tactics.

Perhaps the manifesto will be bold and radical as Cleitophon says.

I cling to this idea more in hope than expectation: if I were a master tactician advising Starmer I’d have advised pretty much exactly what he has done so far - pull out all the stops to seem as unthreatening as you can to traditional Tory voters, embed the ‘no way back’ narrative for the Tories, before releasing a manifesto full of details in which you bury some pretty radical proposals, hoping that the ferocious Tory attacks on these radical proposals don’t land with the electorate because they’re no longer listening to the Tories.

The argument against this is Theresa May’s ‘dementia tax’. I imagine in Labour HQ there are currently pitched battles as to whether Starmer risks the equivalent ‘bold’ manifesto or keeps with the small target strategy. I hope for the former but accept I am hoping not expecting.

Saw a description of Starmer recently as a ruthless so-and-so but in the "right" causes. Now people might disagree with the second, but the first matches the observations.

See not only his destruction of Corbyn, but also of Johnson. Both of them put in positions where they destroyed themselves while Starmer did nothing to help them.

As for what happens next, I'm expecting a fair bit of using the rulebook correctly but fairly cynically to achieve his ends. And a rather wooly manifesto that turns out to provide cover for quite a lot.

I've said before- think of the magician who tells you to choose any card you like, but ensures you take the one he needs you to in order to make the trick work.

Stuartinromford

Foxy said:

maxh said:

Alanbrooke said:

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Starmer doesnt do bold he does cautious.

Perhaps he has fooled you (and 95% of the population as a whole) with his tactics.

Perhaps the manifesto will be bold and radical as Cleitophon says.

I cling to this idea more in hope than expectation: if I were a master tactician advising Starmer I’d have advised pretty much exactly what he has done so far - pull out all the stops to seem as unthreatening as you can to traditional Tory voters, embed the ‘no way back’ narrative for the Tories, before releasing a manifesto full of details in which you bury some pretty radical proposals, hoping that the ferocious Tory attacks on these radical proposals don’t land with the electorate because they’re no longer listening to the Tories.

The argument against this is Theresa May’s ‘dementia tax’. I imagine in Labour HQ there are currently pitched battles as to whether Starmer risks the equivalent ‘bold’ manifesto or keeps with the small target strategy. I hope for the former but accept I am hoping not expecting.

I wouldn't expect a great deal in the manifesto. Aspiration and verbosity will characterise it, but little concrete that will inhibit manoeuvre in office. Its not as if manifestos mean much. What happened to the Tories plan for Social Care, 40 new hospitals etc?

Or, the other way, where's the Rwanda scheme in the 2019 manifesto?

All manifesting a policy gets you is immunity from interference by the Lords, and that's only really valuable in the final year of your term.

logical_song

Eabhal said:

IanB2 said:

JosiasJessop said:

"Faulty smart meters rise to nearly four million"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz9zqn77ezno

We've resisted the constant pleadings of our energy supplier to get a smart meter. So far, at least...

Yes, I got fed up with my supplier's incessant attempts to get me to have one, as well.

As it happens, I met the guy who instals them on the island, while he was doing some other electrical works, and he had some horror stories to share, including people cut off from supply altogether when the meter's comms failed to connect. He said he currently has as many jobs on hand to remove installed smart meters as he does to instal new ones.

I had a sustained fight (spreadsheets and models were deployed) with my provider when I switched to a smart meter at my old place. They pissed about with the estimates when it didn't send the correct data across for a few months.

I have refused to get one installed in my current flat on that basis.

I have smart meters.
The electric one saves me a lot of money as I can use great Octopus tariffs that need a smart meter.
The gas one is too far away from the hub that communicates with the company, so is in effect a dumb meter. This is annoying and I'm on a list to fix it, but all it means is that I have to read it and submit the readings once a month.

malcolmg

JosiasJessop said:

"Faulty smart meters rise to nearly four million"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz9zqn77ezno

We've resisted the constant pleadings of our energy supplier to get a smart meter. So far, at least...

Same here but no doubt will be forced at some point , most now insist on one if you switch to new supplier.

eristdoof

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Starmer doesnt do bold he does cautious.

I think his internal purge of the Trots, including withdrawing the whip from the former leader and former shadow Home Sec pretty bold.

Starmer looks to me the exact opposite of Sunak. Under-promise and over-deliver rather than over-promise and under-deliver.

Well we will see what Starmer actually does if he gets in to power. I;m ( unsurprisingly ) in the camp that says hes Continuity Sunak. That comes not just from the view of his character but from the hard reality that he inherits the same problems as RS and has the same limited space for manoeuvre.

A large contribution to Sunak being unable to do much is because of the team behind him. All the capable tories have had their time under Cameron, May and to a certain extent Johnson. Now that supply has run out. Those left running the government are with the possible exception of Hunt either treading water or are unsuitables who have a crazy idea that they too could be PM.

At the very least there will be a pool of competent Labour MPs for Starmer to choose from. And assuming he has a workable majority, he will also have strong support from his backbenchers for the 2024-2028 term.

TheScreamingEagles

What a third rate dump.

Rishi Sunak has warned Oxford University against a “divisive” attempt to restrict the election of its next chancellor on the basis of age or sex, as Tory MPs accuse the university of making a “disastrous” move away from meritocracy.

After ministers privately raised fears of an attempt to stop the post of chancellor going to another older, white, male politician, MPs have said that the university risks endangering its reputation by allowing a “small committee of insiders” to decide who is allowed to stand.

They say that focusing on “principles of equality and diversity” puts Oxford at risk of imitating Harvard, whose first black president, Claudine Gay, was forced to resign earlier this year over accusations of plagiarism and equivocation over antisemitism.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-urge-oxford-university-not-to-restrict-its-election-of-chancellor-lpz5vrvqk

Alanbrooke

Stuartinromford said:

maxh said:

Alanbrooke said:

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Starmer doesnt do bold he does cautious.

Perhaps he has fooled you (and 95% of the population as a whole) with his tactics.

Perhaps the manifesto will be bold and radical as Cleitophon says.

I cling to this idea more in hope than expectation: if I were a master tactician advising Starmer I’d have advised pretty much exactly what he has done so far - pull out all the stops to seem as unthreatening as you can to traditional Tory voters, embed the ‘no way back’ narrative for the Tories, before releasing a manifesto full of details in which you bury some pretty radical proposals, hoping that the ferocious Tory attacks on these radical proposals don’t land with the electorate because they’re no longer listening to the Tories.

The argument against this is Theresa May’s ‘dementia tax’. I imagine in Labour HQ there are currently pitched battles as to whether Starmer risks the equivalent ‘bold’ manifesto or keeps with the small target strategy. I hope for the former but accept I am hoping not expecting.

Saw a description of Starmer recently as a ruthless so-and-so but in the "right" causes. Now people might disagree with the second, but the first matches the observations.

See not only his destruction of Corbyn, but also of Johnson. Both of them put in positions where they destroyed themselves while Starmer did nothing to help them.

As for what happens next, I'm expecting a fair bit of using the rulebook correctly but fairly cynically to achieve his ends. And a rather wooly manifesto that turns out to provide cover for quite a lot.

I've said before- think of the magician who tells you to choose any card you like, but ensures you take the one he needs you to in order to make the trick work.

But this is simply tick over politicking. A displacement activity to fill the empty hours. His job is to get the country moving and money in people's pockets.

I doubt he will. He will be like the UKs Olaf Scholz. Dull, worthy and ineffective.

TheScreamingEagles

Eabhal said:

Major disaster in Baltimore popping up on my phone. Looks like a ship has hit a bridge.

Not 100% sure of course, could be AI...

My phone is pinging with news alerts about it from the BBC, Sky News, et al.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eabhal said:

Major disaster in Baltimore popping up on my phone. Looks like a ship has hit a bridge.

Not 100% sure of course, could be AI...

My phone is pinging with news alerts about it from the BBC, Sky News, et al.

Sky saying 1.6 mile bridge has collapsed after collision with ship

Eabhal

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eabhal said:

Major disaster in Baltimore popping up on my phone. Looks like a ship has hit a bridge.

Not 100% sure of course, could be AI...

My phone is pinging with news alerts about it from the BBC, Sky News, et al.

The video is quite something.

Alanbrooke

Eabhal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eabhal said:

Major disaster in Baltimore popping up on my phone. Looks like a ship has hit a bridge.

Not 100% sure of course, could be AI...

My phone is pinging with news alerts about it from the BBC, Sky News, et al.

The video is quite something.

Yes. quite a horror show

TheScreamingEagles

JosiasJessop said:

"Faulty smart meters rise to nearly four million"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz9zqn77ezno

We've resisted the constant pleadings of our energy supplier to get a smart meter. So far, at least...

Recently as part of my job I've been working with the energy sector and got to know quite a lot about smart meters.

The reality is you're getting a smart meter whether you want one or not, the older (classic) meters are coming to the end of their certification period and the companies who made them now just make smart meters.

At best you'll get a smart meter put in dumb mode* as some areas cannot have them due to coverage or they live close to certain RAF bases but those are growing smaller.

*Putting a smart meter in dumb mode is that it acts like a classic meter but isn't a long term solution.

FWIW - I've had a smart meter since 2014 and never had problems, I was recently upgraded to SMETS2 version which is even better.

TheScreamingEagles

Eabhal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eabhal said:

Major disaster in Baltimore popping up on my phone. Looks like a ship has hit a bridge.

Not 100% sure of course, could be AI...

My phone is pinging with news alerts about it from the BBC, Sky News, et al.

The video is quite something.

On Sky News on a loop at the moment.

Nigelb

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eabhal said:

Major disaster in Baltimore popping up on my phone. Looks like a ship has hit a bridge.

Not 100% sure of course, could be AI...

My phone is pinging with news alerts about it from the BBC, Sky News, et al.

Sky saying 1.6 mile bridge has collapsed after collision with ship

Sounds as though a large container ship hit it, possibly after losing power.

Alanbrooke

Nigelb said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eabhal said:

Major disaster in Baltimore popping up on my phone. Looks like a ship has hit a bridge.

Not 100% sure of course, could be AI...

My phone is pinging with news alerts about it from the BBC, Sky News, et al.

Sky saying 1.6 mile bridge has collapsed after collision with ship

Sounds as though a large container ship hit it, possibly after losing power.

Yes, the ship hit a support column of the bridge and the central portion of the bridge has collapsed.

TheScreamingEagles

I've ordered my copy. I will also make a copy a prize for a future PB compeition.

Buy now, get Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir next year

Families of coronavirus victims have questioned how she could write the book yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries

For those who cannot wait to secure their copy, Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir is on sale more than a year before its official publication date.

The former first minister’s account of her political career, for which she is thought to have been paid £300,000, has been made available for pre-order.

Readers are being asked to pay up to £28 (the recommended retail price) for the book, due to be published in August next year, even though it has yet to be finished and there is no guarantee it will deal with the tumultuous months following her shock resignation as SNP leader in February last year.

The memoir is already being criticised by families of coronavirus victims, who are questioning how Sturgeon could write a book about the past three decades yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries for the UK Covid-19 Inquiry.

The Scottish Covid Bereaved group has written to Humza Yousaf, her successor as first minister, asking for an explanation.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/buy-now-get-nicola-sturgeons-memoir-next-year-2kpls98td

malcolmg

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've ordered my copy. I will also make a copy a prize for a future PB compeition.

Buy now, get Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir next year

Families of coronavirus victims have questioned how she could write the book yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries

For those who cannot wait to secure their copy, Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir is on sale more than a year before its official publication date.

The former first minister’s account of her political career, for which she is thought to have been paid £300,000, has been made available for pre-order.

Readers are being asked to pay up to £28 (the recommended retail price) for the book, due to be published in August next year, even though it has yet to be finished and there is no guarantee it will deal with the tumultuous months following her shock resignation as SNP leader in February last year.

The memoir is already being criticised by families of coronavirus victims, who are questioning how Sturgeon could write a book about the past three decades yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries for the UK Covid-19 Inquiry.

The Scottish Covid Bereaved group has written to Humza Yousaf, her successor as first minister, asking for an explanation.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/buy-now-get-nicola-sturgeons-memoir-next-year-2kpls98td

will be in the 50p bins soon enough, waste of £28

JosiasJessop

Eabhal said:

Major disaster in Baltimore popping up on my phone. Looks like a ship has hit a bridge.

Not 100% sure of course, could be AI...

There are at least two different angles of it. BBC reporting it as true:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-68663071

JosiasJessop

TheScreamingEagles said:

JosiasJessop said:

"Faulty smart meters rise to nearly four million"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz9zqn77ezno

We've resisted the constant pleadings of our energy supplier to get a smart meter. So far, at least...

Recently as part of my job I've been working with the energy sector and got to know quite a lot about smart meters.

The reality is you're getting a smart meter whether you want one or not, the older (classic) meters are coming to the end of their certification period and the companies who made them now just make smart meters.

At best you'll get a smart meter put in dumb mode* as some areas cannot have them due to coverage or they live close to certain RAF bases but those are growing smaller.

*Putting a smart meter in dumb mode is that it acts like a classic meter but isn't a long term solution.

FWIW - I've had a smart meter since 2014 and never had problems, I was recently upgraded to SMETS2 version which is even better.

Over a decade ago, Mrs J was involved with developing chips for smart meters. This may explain our reticence in getting one.

(To be clear (and to avoid my premature death): the chips are almost certainly not the issue. The systems they are designed to go in are very complex and a very different matter.)

Nigelb

The US's largest container port cut off, I think ?
(Edit . It is the nation's largest port facilities for specialized cargo (roll-on/roll-off ships)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Baltimore

That is going to cause problems.

...During the third quarter of 2017, the Port of Baltimore had a 15% increase in general cargo tons from the third quarter in 2016. Since 2014, the Port has become the fourth fastest-growing port in North America with a 9.8% increase in the amount of cargo handled from the previous year. It is currently ranked 8th of 36 US ports for gross tonnage and 7th in dollar value.[18][19]

The Port handles one-fourth of the country's coal exports...

JosiasJessop

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eabhal said:

Major disaster in Baltimore popping up on my phone. Looks like a ship has hit a bridge.

Not 100% sure of course, could be AI...

My phone is pinging with news alerts about it from the BBC, Sky News, et al.

Sky saying 1.6 mile bridge has collapsed after collision with ship

Sounds as though a large container ship hit it, possibly after losing power.

Yes, the ship hit a support column of the bridge and the central portion of the bridge has collapsed.

Bridge strikes by ships are sadly quite common worldwide. e.g. this one from earlier in the year:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/22/world/asia/china-bridge-collapse-ship.html

It also looks as though the entire bridge, aside from one of the approach viaducts, has collapsed.

Stuartinromford

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've ordered my copy. I will also make a copy a prize for a future PB compeition.

Buy now, get Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir next year

Families of coronavirus victims have questioned how she could write the book yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries

For those who cannot wait to secure their copy, Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir is on sale more than a year before its official publication date.

The former first minister’s account of her political career, for which she is thought to have been paid £300,000, has been made available for pre-order.

Readers are being asked to pay up to £28 (the recommended retail price) for the book, due to be published in August next year, even though it has yet to be finished and there is no guarantee it will deal with the tumultuous months following her shock resignation as SNP leader in February last year.

The memoir is already being criticised by families of coronavirus victims, who are questioning how Sturgeon could write a book about the past three decades yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries for the UK Covid-19 Inquiry.

The Scottish Covid Bereaved group has written to Humza Yousaf, her successor as first minister, asking for an explanation.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/buy-now-get-nicola-sturgeons-memoir-next-year-2kpls98td

Prize for the winner or the loser?

TheScreamingEagles

Stuartinromford said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've ordered my copy. I will also make a copy a prize for a future PB compeition.

Buy now, get Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir next year

Families of coronavirus victims have questioned how she could write the book yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries

For those who cannot wait to secure their copy, Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir is on sale more than a year before its official publication date.

The former first minister’s account of her political career, for which she is thought to have been paid £300,000, has been made available for pre-order.

Readers are being asked to pay up to £28 (the recommended retail price) for the book, due to be published in August next year, even though it has yet to be finished and there is no guarantee it will deal with the tumultuous months following her shock resignation as SNP leader in February last year.

The memoir is already being criticised by families of coronavirus victims, who are questioning how Sturgeon could write a book about the past three decades yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries for the UK Covid-19 Inquiry.

The Scottish Covid Bereaved group has written to Humza Yousaf, her successor as first minister, asking for an explanation.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/buy-now-get-nicola-sturgeons-memoir-next-year-2kpls98td

Prize for the winner or the loser?

I haven't decided.

IanB2

Breaking - major bridge collapse in Baltimore, after being hit by a container ship:

Nigelb

Nigelb said:

The US's largest container port cut off, I think ?
(Edit . It is the nation's largest port facilities for specialized cargo (roll-on/roll-off ships)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Baltimore

That is going to cause problems.

...During the third quarter of 2017, the Port of Baltimore had a 15% increase in general cargo tons from the third quarter in 2016. Since 2014, the Port has become the fourth fastest-growing port in North America with a 9.8% increase in the amount of cargo handled from the previous year. It is currently ranked 8th of 36 US ports for gross tonnage and 7th in dollar value.[18][19]

The Port handles one-fourth of the country's coal exports...

In terms of gross tonnage, that's questionable as it's way down this list - around 18th
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ports_in_the_United_States

By value much higher, as European car imports got through it.

Taz

JosiasJessop said:

"Faulty smart meters rise to nearly four million"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz9zqn77ezno

We've resisted the constant pleadings of our energy supplier to get a smart meter. So far, at least...

Same here. We will hold out as long as we can.

SouthamObserver

Very few people are going to march enthusiastically to the polls to vote *for* Labour but many millions will go to them to vote extremely enthusiastically *against* the Tories. Welcome to the first past the post electoral system!

If I were Starmer and co and have won the GE, I’d prefer to go in on the back of low expectations - the Tories have set the bar so low, it will be hard to look as bad and to deliver as little. There are relatively quick wins available: basic competence, an end to relentless culture war, moving closer to the EU, a degree of backbench stability plus the prospects of a slowly improving economy and lower immigration. Then there will be the absolute carnage of a Tory leadership campaign fought largely on GBNews.

Of course, it can all go pear-shaped very quickly on the back of events and mistakes, but under-promise and over-deliver seems a decent starting strategy to me.

Benpointer

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

DecrepiterJohnL

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eabhal said:

Major disaster in Baltimore popping up on my phone. Looks like a ship has hit a bridge.

Not 100% sure of course, could be AI...

My phone is pinging with news alerts about it from the BBC, Sky News, et al.

Sky saying 1.6 mile bridge has collapsed after collision with ship

Bridges should bloody look where they are going imo.

Taz

Eabhal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eabhal said:

Major disaster in Baltimore popping up on my phone. Looks like a ship has hit a bridge.

Not 100% sure of course, could be AI...

My phone is pinging with news alerts about it from the BBC, Sky News, et al.

The video is quite something.

It folded like a pack of cards. Or the England Middle Order.

nico679

One can only imagine how much worse the bridge collapse could have been if it had occurred earlier when many more people would have been crossing it.

Foxy

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

Yes. Really quite extraordinary.

Taz

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've ordered my copy. I will also make a copy a prize for a future PB compeition.

Buy now, get Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir next year

Families of coronavirus victims have questioned how she could write the book yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries

For those who cannot wait to secure their copy, Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir is on sale more than a year before its official publication date.

The former first minister’s account of her political career, for which she is thought to have been paid £300,000, has been made available for pre-order.

Readers are being asked to pay up to £28 (the recommended retail price) for the book, due to be published in August next year, even though it has yet to be finished and there is no guarantee it will deal with the tumultuous months following her shock resignation as SNP leader in February last year.

The memoir is already being criticised by families of coronavirus victims, who are questioning how Sturgeon could write a book about the past three decades yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries for the UK Covid-19 Inquiry.

The Scottish Covid Bereaved group has written to Humza Yousaf, her successor as first minister, asking for an explanation.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/buy-now-get-nicola-sturgeons-memoir-next-year-2kpls98td

will be in the 50p bins soon enough, waste of £28

£28.00 !!!!!

I would have thought the 50p was too expensive let alone £28.00

JosiasJessop

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

Yes. Really quite extraordinary.

Everyone knows the most dangerous city in the world is Leicester...

Benpointer

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

"Faulty smart meters rise to nearly four million"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz9zqn77ezno

We've resisted the constant pleadings of our energy supplier to get a smart meter. So far, at least...

Same here. We will hold out as long as we can.

I suspect 'not operating in Smart mode' means failing to connect back to the supplier; not that the meter will give a faulty reading. Poor mobile coverage + extensive foil insulation + Ofgen's resistance to allowing meters to use the consumer's wi-fi will be the usual cause, I'd guess.

I see quite a few people with 'smart meter' issues at Citizens Advice. So far everyone has turned out to the client's mistake (usually not appreciating how much energy prices have gone up).

My smart meter has allowed me to take advantage of Octopus's variable rate charging - saving us £40 pm atm - you luddites are welcome to give that benefit a miss.

squareroot2

Taz said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've ordered my copy. I will also make a copy a prize for a future PB compeition.

Buy now, get Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir next year

Families of coronavirus victims have questioned how she could write the book yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries

For those who cannot wait to secure their copy, Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir is on sale more than a year before its official publication date.

The former first minister’s account of her political career, for which she is thought to have been paid £300,000, has been made available for pre-order.

Readers are being asked to pay up to £28 (the recommended retail price) for the book, due to be published in August next year, even though it has yet to be finished and there is no guarantee it will deal with the tumultuous months following her shock resignation as SNP leader in February last year.

The memoir is already being criticised by families of coronavirus victims, who are questioning how Sturgeon could write a book about the past three decades yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries for the UK Covid-19 Inquiry.

The Scottish Covid Bereaved group has written to Humza Yousaf, her successor as first minister, asking for an explanation.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/buy-now-get-nicola-sturgeons-memoir-next-year-2kpls98td

will be in the 50p bins soon enough, waste of £28

£28.00 !!!!!

I would have thought the 50p was too expensive let alone £28.00

I don't want to read a single word of what that ghastly woman has to say. It will be all over the media anyway so why give the duplicitous former First Minister a penny....

Foxy

Why do we get so many maternity scandals? This article has some clues as to the dysfunctional nature of relationships behind personal tragedies.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/mar/26/my-child-was-drowning-life-and-death-on-an-english-maternity-ward

DecrepiterJohnL

Anecdata: Sainsbury's was very quiet yesterday. Whether that is due to Ramadan, weeks since payday or the new Lidl nearby is open to question. However, general skintness might help explain the enthusiasm gap mentioned in the header.

Eabhal

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

The original had video from New York. They had to delete that one.

It's supposed to be a piss take, but a rather dangerous minority will take it seriously. The 15-minute/ULEZ/anti- vaxx/5G/Facebook group are already blowing stuff up in London.

I don't think it's hysterical to say it puts Khan in a little more danger than he already is. It's what leads to stuff like this:

BBC News - Road closures: Workers facing knives, machetes and guns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-68633010

Benpointer

Eabhal said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

The original had video from New York. They had to delete that one.

It's supposed to be a piss take, but a rather dangerous minority will take it seriously. The 15-minute/ULEZ/anti- vaxx/5G/Facebook group are already blowing stuff up in London.

I don't think it's hysterical to say it puts Khan in a little more danger than he already is. It's what leads to stuff like this:

BBC News - Road closures: Workers facing knives, machetes and guns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-68633010

"It's supposed to be a piss take" ?

I don't buy that.

ToryJim

nico679 said:

One can only imagine how much worse the bridge collapse could have been if it had occurred earlier when many more people would have been crossing it.

Indeed. Although one imagines that if there were more traffic on the bridge there would also be more harbour traffic too and so more opportunity to spot and avert a problem.

Unpopular

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

That is so bizarre, it's like a mental American political advert. 'Since the Labour Mayor seized power' What the fuck!

Nigelb

Eabhal said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

The original had video from New York. They had to delete that one.

It's supposed to be a piss take, but a rather dangerous minority will take it seriously. The 15-minute/ULEZ/anti- vaxx/5G/Facebook group are already blowing stuff up in London.

I don't think it's hysterical to say it puts Khan in a little more danger than he already is. It's what leads to stuff like this:

BBC News - Road closures: Workers facing knives, machetes and guns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-68633010

It's as though the only people left in the Tory party are old dinosaurs, and weird teenagers with zero social skills.

Roger

OT. Pehaps interesting for theologians amongst us.

https://twitter.com/abierkhatib/status/1772222434734686212?s=42&t=a8w_iZEdCb52zK_FrBw3IA

DecrepiterJohnL

Unpopular said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

That is so bizarre, it's like a mental American political advert. 'Since the Labour Mayor seized power' What the fuck!

What is the intention? What is it a pastiche of?

Benpointer

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Unpopular said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

That is so bizarre, it's like a mental American political advert. 'Since the Labour Mayor seized power' What the fuck!

What is the intention? What is it a pastiche of?

Maybe there's a Labour mole in CCHQ?

Theuniondivvie

There’s a thing where murderers can’t resist hanging about at the scene of the crime, isn’t there?

SouthamObserver

The state of public infrastructure in the US is abysmal. When we see all that stuff about Americans being much wealthier than Europeans, look at the roads there, the bridges, the railways, the life expectancy, the homelessness, the really basic stuff. I'd much rather live here.

Stuartinromford

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Unpopular said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

That is so bizarre, it's like a mental American political advert. 'Since the Labour Mayor seized power' What the fuck!

What is the intention? What is it a pastiche of?

Flip knows. But it is how Sue Hall's Zone 6 core vote think about London and its Mayor.

SouthamObserver

Unpopular said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

That is so bizarre, it's like a mental American political advert. 'Since the Labour Mayor seized power' What the fuck!

It is going to take an extraordinary leader to rescue the Tories from the hole they are digging for themselves. They look across the Atlantic and see Trump and MAGA and their hearts soar. But they forget that the UK is much less polarised, much less religious, much more European. The Tories used to get England, if not Scotland or Wales. They now give every impression of having lost touch completely.

ToryJim

Roger said:

OT. Pehaps interesting for theologians amongst us.

https://twitter.com/abierkhatib/status/1772222434734686212?s=42&t=a8w_iZEdCb52zK_FrBw3IA

Not sure there was much of theological significance in that statement per se other than the suggestion not to quote religious scriptures selectively for partisan purposes. However it is usually good advice not to selectively quote any material out of context in support of particular points of view, the same applies to cropping images or clipping sound or videos to such ends.

algarkirk

Roger said:

OT. Pehaps interesting for theologians amongst us.

https://twitter.com/abierkhatib/status/1772222434734686212?s=42&t=a8w_iZEdCb52zK_FrBw3IA

That's not theology, that's arithmetic.

Eabhal

Benpointer said:

Eabhal said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

The original had video from New York. They had to delete that one.

It's supposed to be a piss take, but a rather dangerous minority will take it seriously. The 15-minute/ULEZ/anti- vaxx/5G/Facebook group are already blowing stuff up in London.

I don't think it's hysterical to say it puts Khan in a little more danger than he already is. It's what leads to stuff like this:

BBC News - Road closures: Workers facing knives, machetes and guns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-68633010

"It's supposed to be a piss take" ?

I don't buy that.

I hope you're wrong.

JosiasJessop

The idiotic conspiracy theories have started about the Baltimore tragedy:

"Is it me, or does this look deliberate?" etc, etc.

It will not have been deliberate. Factors could vary through gross human error, machinery/technology failure, design/procedural failures, or even just dumb bad luck. But it will not have been deliberate.

(I assume a pilot would have been on board, as well as the normal crew.)

Even something like the Hythe Pier strike was not deliberate.

https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/23891006.dredger-destroyed-part-hythe-pier-causing-300k-damage/
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/547c70cce5274a42900000d3/Donald_Redford.pdf

FF43

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Unpopular said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

That is so bizarre, it's like a mental American political advert. 'Since the Labour Mayor seized power' What the fuck!

What is the intention? What is it a pastiche of?

I suspect the intention is people find it amusing but also think there's a grain of truth.

Goebbels localised for British humour.

Theuniondivvie

From my disorganised memory banks I recall that Francis Scott Key was the composer of the Star Spangled Banner, and that F. Scott Fitzgerald was named after him.

Cleitophon

Stuartinromford said:

maxh said:

Alanbrooke said:

Cleitophon said:

I think we can account for the low enthusiasm. There is a hunger for bold strategic national action in the electorate. At the same time Labour is forced in the short term tactics of electoral battle with the tories to not make a target of itself. So the strategy becomes: no manifesto till the last minute. Play dead on true intentions of an EU strategy. I think as soon as the Labour government come in and the short term.electoral threat is gone, Labour will pull out all the stops. They need to show a bold strategy that delivers.... but not at the cost of compromising victory.... so we will have to wait till they are actually in office. But I expect: a wide range of agreements with the eu perhaps even a CU. SM added to the manifesto as a term two goal.

Starmer doesnt do bold he does cautious.

Perhaps he has fooled you (and 95% of the population as a whole) with his tactics.

Perhaps the manifesto will be bold and radical as Cleitophon says.

I cling to this idea more in hope than expectation: if I were a master tactician advising Starmer I’d have advised pretty much exactly what he has done so far - pull out all the stops to seem as unthreatening as you can to traditional Tory voters, embed the ‘no way back’ narrative for the Tories, before releasing a manifesto full of details in which you bury some pretty radical proposals, hoping that the ferocious Tory attacks on these radical proposals don’t land with the electorate because they’re no longer listening to the Tories.

The argument against this is Theresa May’s ‘dementia tax’. I imagine in Labour HQ there are currently pitched battles as to whether Starmer risks the equivalent ‘bold’ manifesto or keeps with the small target strategy. I hope for the former but accept I am hoping not expecting.

Saw a description of Starmer recently as a ruthless so-and-so but in the "right" causes. Now people might disagree with the second, but the first matches the observations.

See not only his destruction of Corbyn, but also of Johnson. Both of them put in positions where they destroyed themselves while Starmer did nothing to help them.

As for what happens next, I'm expecting a fair bit of using the rulebook correctly but fairly cynically to achieve his ends. And a rather wooly manifesto that turns out to provide cover for quite a lot.

I've said before- think of the magician who tells you to choose any card you like, but ensures you take the one he needs you to in order to make the trick work.

Exactly. Underestimate Starmer at your own risk. He is ruthless and with his eye fixed on the goal.

ToryJim

Benpointer said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Unpopular said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

That is so bizarre, it's like a mental American political advert. 'Since the Labour Mayor seized power' What the fuck!

What is the intention? What is it a pastiche of?

Maybe there's a Labour mole in CCHQ?

Would Labour take the risk, the farcical levels of incompetence make it unnecessary and there’s always the risk that it rubs off on the mole and you don’t want an incompetent mole.

Fishing

SouthamObserver said:

Very few people are going to march enthusiastically to the polls to vote *for* Labour but many millions will go to them to vote extremely enthusiastically *against* the Tories. Welcome to the first past the post electoral system!

If I were Starmer and co and have won the GE, I’d prefer to go in on the back of low expectations - the Tories have set the bar so low, it will be hard to look as bad and to deliver as little. There are relatively quick wins available: basic competence, an end to relentless culture war, moving closer to the EU, a degree of backbench stability plus the prospects of a slowly improving economy and lower immigration. Then there will be the absolute carnage of a Tory leadership campaign fought largely on GBNews.

Of course, it can all go pear-shaped very quickly on the back of events and mistakes, but under-promise and over-deliver seems a decent starting strategy to me.

Your quick wins are all illusory I'm afraid. The Labour front bench isn't basically competent, it just seems so because it hasn't had any scrutiny. The culture war will be fought anyway, it's the price of living in a diverse society where everybody insists on their rights and fewer remember their duties (see America for where we're heading). Only the government's position will change. Moving closer to the EU won't be quick, even if it's possible. Labour backbenchers won't be stable. The economy won't be better under Labour. And lower immigration? From a party that gets a huge part of its votes from immigrants and other ethnic minorities and opened the door to millions in 2004? You're kidding.

Starmer has no vision and no charisma, unlike Blair who could hide under some illusory rapport with moderates and a growing economy. So I think the most likely scenario for the probable next government is a short honeymoon, then popularity in the toilet for the same reason as the current one - a diverse coalition with incompatible goals, combined with a poor economy.

theProle

ToryJim said:

nico679 said:

One can only imagine how much worse the bridge collapse could have been if it had occurred earlier when many more people would have been crossing it.

Indeed. Although one imagines that if there were more traffic on the bridge there would also be more harbour traffic too and so more opportunity to spot and avert a problem.

If you lose power to the rudder in a ship under way in a tight space you're pretty stuffed regardless of how much traffic there is round you. Interestingly IIRC on ships critical systems like steering gear are wired without fuses or overload breakers - the risks of fires from electrical faults are seen as lower than the risks from the equipment triping out at a critical moment.

Carnyx

squareroot2 said:

Taz said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've ordered my copy. I will also make a copy a prize for a future PB compeition.

Buy now, get Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir next year

Families of coronavirus victims have questioned how she could write the book yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries

For those who cannot wait to secure their copy, Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir is on sale more than a year before its official publication date.

The former first minister’s account of her political career, for which she is thought to have been paid £300,000, has been made available for pre-order.

Readers are being asked to pay up to £28 (the recommended retail price) for the book, due to be published in August next year, even though it has yet to be finished and there is no guarantee it will deal with the tumultuous months following her shock resignation as SNP leader in February last year.

The memoir is already being criticised by families of coronavirus victims, who are questioning how Sturgeon could write a book about the past three decades yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries for the UK Covid-19 Inquiry.

The Scottish Covid Bereaved group has written to Humza Yousaf, her successor as first minister, asking for an explanation.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/buy-now-get-nicola-sturgeons-memoir-next-year-2kpls98td

will be in the 50p bins soon enough, waste of £28

£28.00 !!!!!

I would have thought the 50p was too expensive let alone £28.00

I don't want to read a single word of what that ghastly woman has to say. It will be all over the media anyway so why give the duplicitous former First Minister a penny....

Concocted indignation. This sort of thing is quite normal on Amazon - they have a guarantee of no price increase and a reduction if in fact it is cheaper on the day, plus you can cancel.

Theuniondivvie

Carnyx said:

squareroot2 said:

Taz said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've ordered my copy. I will also make a copy a prize for a future PB compeition.

Buy now, get Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir next year

Families of coronavirus victims have questioned how she could write the book yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries

For those who cannot wait to secure their copy, Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir is on sale more than a year before its official publication date.

The former first minister’s account of her political career, for which she is thought to have been paid £300,000, has been made available for pre-order.

Readers are being asked to pay up to £28 (the recommended retail price) for the book, due to be published in August next year, even though it has yet to be finished and there is no guarantee it will deal with the tumultuous months following her shock resignation as SNP leader in February last year.

The memoir is already being criticised by families of coronavirus victims, who are questioning how Sturgeon could write a book about the past three decades yet fail to produce any pandemic diaries for the UK Covid-19 Inquiry.

The Scottish Covid Bereaved group has written to Humza Yousaf, her successor as first minister, asking for an explanation.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/buy-now-get-nicola-sturgeons-memoir-next-year-2kpls98td

will be in the 50p bins soon enough, waste of £28

£28.00 !!!!!

I would have thought the 50p was too expensive let alone £28.00

I don't want to read a single word of what that ghastly woman has to say. It will be all over the media anyway so why give the duplicitous former First Minister a penny....

Concocted indignation. This sort of thing is quite normal on Amazon - they have a guarantee of no price increase and a reduction if in fact it is cheaper on the day, plus you can cancel.

Concocted indignation on PB? Surely not.

Nigelb

SouthamObserver said:

Unpopular said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

That is so bizarre, it's like a mental American political advert. 'Since the Labour Mayor seized power' What the fuck!

It is going to take an extraordinary leader to rescue the Tories from the hole they are digging for themselves. They look across the Atlantic and see Trump and MAGA and their hearts soar. But they forget that the UK is much less polarised, much less religious, much more European. The Tories used to get England, if not Scotland or Wales. They now give every impression of having lost touch completely.

Anyone whose heart soars looking at MAGA has little place in UK politics. I hope.

Luckyguy1983

Theuniondivvie said:

There’s a thing where murderers can’t resist hanging about at the scene of the crime, isn’t there?

You've identified some logic in Alastair Campbell's sozzled ravings?

Nigelb

Theuniondivvie said:

From my disorganised memory banks I recall that Francis Scott Key was the composer of the Star Spangled Banner, and that F. Scott Fitzgerald was named after him.

Indeed.
The Baltimore bridge is built pretty well on the spot where he watched "the rockets' red glare".

Eabhal

Nigelb said:

SouthamObserver said:

Unpopular said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

That is so bizarre, it's like a mental American political advert. 'Since the Labour Mayor seized power' What the fuck!

It is going to take an extraordinary leader to rescue the Tories from the hole they are digging for themselves. They look across the Atlantic and see Trump and MAGA and their hearts soar. But they forget that the UK is much less polarised, much less religious, much more European. The Tories used to get England, if not Scotland or Wales. They now give every impression of having lost touch completely.

Anyone whose heart soars looking at MAGA has little place in UK politics. I hope.

I think they are planting the seed for a election fraud argument for why Hall loses. "Seize power".

BatteryCorrectHorse

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

Yes. Really quite extraordinary.

I mentioned this last night. It must be one of the worst political adverts of all time.

FF43

If Labour do win the predicted landslide, it renders the Tories and all the stuff they like irrelevant. Labour can ignore culture war etc and various special interests if it wants to.

Labour won't need enthusiasm even at the following election unless Conservatives sort themselves out by then.

SouthamObserver

Nigelb said:

SouthamObserver said:

Unpopular said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

That is so bizarre, it's like a mental American political advert. 'Since the Labour Mayor seized power' What the fuck!

It is going to take an extraordinary leader to rescue the Tories from the hole they are digging for themselves. They look across the Atlantic and see Trump and MAGA and their hearts soar. But they forget that the UK is much less polarised, much less religious, much more European. The Tories used to get England, if not Scotland or Wales. They now give every impression of having lost touch completely.

Anyone whose heart soars looking at MAGA has little place in UK politics. I hope.

So do I. But countless prominent Tories are very clear they support Trump. It just shows how cut-off they have become from mainstream opinion on this side of the Atlantic.

OnlyLivingBoy

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

Yes. Really quite extraordinary.

I mentioned this last night. It must be one of the worst political adverts of all time.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/26/fact-check-has-sadiq-khan-really-overseen-a-surge-in-london

It's also comically untrue. Murders are falling, gun crime is falling, and London has one of the lowest rates of antisocial behaviour in the country.
Lies are all the Tories have left.

Nigelb

SouthamObserver said:

Nigelb said:

SouthamObserver said:

Unpopular said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

That is so bizarre, it's like a mental American political advert. 'Since the Labour Mayor seized power' What the fuck!

It is going to take an extraordinary leader to rescue the Tories from the hole they are digging for themselves. They look across the Atlantic and see Trump and MAGA and their hearts soar. But they forget that the UK is much less polarised, much less religious, much more European. The Tories used to get England, if not Scotland or Wales. They now give every impression of having lost touch completely.

Anyone whose heart soars looking at MAGA has little place in UK politics. I hope.

So do I. But countless prominent Tories are very clear they support Trump. It just shows how cut-off they have become from mainstream opinion on this side of the Atlantic.

See also Farage.

SouthamObserver

Fishing said:

SouthamObserver said:

Very few people are going to march enthusiastically to the polls to vote *for* Labour but many millions will go to them to vote extremely enthusiastically *against* the Tories. Welcome to the first past the post electoral system!

If I were Starmer and co and have won the GE, I’d prefer to go in on the back of low expectations - the Tories have set the bar so low, it will be hard to look as bad and to deliver as little. There are relatively quick wins available: basic competence, an end to relentless culture war, moving closer to the EU, a degree of backbench stability plus the prospects of a slowly improving economy and lower immigration. Then there will be the absolute carnage of a Tory leadership campaign fought largely on GBNews.

Of course, it can all go pear-shaped very quickly on the back of events and mistakes, but under-promise and over-deliver seems a decent starting strategy to me.

Your quick wins are all illusory I'm afraid. The Labour front bench isn't basically competent, it just seems so because it hasn't had any scrutiny. The culture war will be fought anyway, it's the price of living in a diverse society where everybody insists on their rights and fewer remember their duties (see America for where we're heading). Only the government's position will change. Moving closer to the EU won't be quick, even if it's possible. Labour backbenchers won't be stable. The economy won't be better under Labour. And lower immigration? From a party that gets a huge part of its votes from immigrants and other ethnic minorities and opened the door to millions in 2004? You're kidding.

Starmer has no vision and no charisma, unlike Blair who could hide under some illusory rapport with moderates and a growing economy. So I think the most likely scenario for the probable next government is a short honeymoon, then popularity in the toilet for the same reason as the current one - a diverse coalition with incompatible goals, combined with a poor economy.

I am confident that if Labour wins the general election, the first Starmer cabinet will be immeasurably more competent than the last Tory one. Not because there is an abundance of Labour talent, mind!

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

That Conservative advert is ridiculous. I'm not a Khan fan (the beach body ready nonsense was pathetic puritanism) but winning an election is not 'seizing power'. Hyperbolic slurs exaggerating what could be legitimate criticisms are wretched.

A shift from nuance to absolutes and extremes is something we saw during the Peloponnesian War and see in the current US political arena. Mindless tribalism is not something I regard well in sport, and even less so in politics.

BatteryCorrectHorse

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

OMG this has to be the worst political ad ever:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1772321715713982730?s=20

Yes. Really quite extraordinary.

I mentioned this last night. It must be one of the worst political adverts of all time.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/26/fact-check-has-sadiq-khan-really-overseen-a-surge-in-london

It's also comically untrue. Murders are falling, gun crime is falling, and London has one of the lowest rates of antisocial behaviour in the country.
Lies are all the Tories have left.

The point he'd "seized" power was really troubling to me. He won two elections fair and square.

BatteryCorrectHorse

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

That Conservative advert is ridiculous. I'm not a Khan fan (the beach body ready nonsense was pathetic puritanism) but winning an election is not 'seizing power'. Hyperbolic slurs exaggerating what could be legitimate criticisms are wretched.

A shift from nuance to absolutes and extremes is something we saw during the Peloponnesian War and see in the current US political arena. Mindless tribalism is not something I regard well in sport, and even less so in politics.

It is the sort of language that will end up getting somebody killed. Look at Khan's feed for people that already want him dead.