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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP no longer odds-on betting favourite to secure most vot
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP no longer odds-on betting favourite to secure most votes in May Euros. LAB now in top slot
One thing that I’ve missed in recent weeks has been the growing sentiment on the betting markets that Labour will win most votes and that the task facing UKIP is going to be harder than many predicted.
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You missed the sentence after that which was something like ''those who expect me to say Germany won;t pay any price to keep the UK in will also be disappointed.
Which seems to me Merkel is saying
Will I back the UK's case? Yes and No.....
Can someone rationally explain exactly what is in our interest as rUK to enter a formal currency union with an independent Scotland. So far all that I have read is that there would be no transaction tax between Scot/rUK trade. Surely there is more to it than that. I really do want to know since I have yet to form a view on Scottish independence...
I was a bit surprised that he made such a confident prediction that UKIP would top the poll.
"Not since before the First World War has any party other than Labour or Conservative won a Britain-wide election. Unless something dramatic happens, that record will fall this May. The UK Independence Party is set to top the poll in the elections to the European Parliament, leaving Labour second and the Tories trailing far behind in third place."
That's incorrect. The turning point was the ICM poll that showed Labour on 35% and UKIP on 20%
I said at the time if the poll was anywhere near correct then Labour had to be a massive bet at 6/4, and UKIP couldn't be EVS favs (They weren't odds on at the time either, I don't think)
People who could see that backed Labour, hence they are now favs
Official figures show a net flow of 212,000 migrants to Britain, up nearly 60,000 year-on-year, with a surge in arrivals from Romania and Bulgaria":< /I>
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10664667/Net-migration-soars-over-200000-despite-David-Camerons-pledge.html
The ratings agency said it would expect Scotland to "benefit from all the attributes of an investment-grade sovereign credit" due its "wealthy" economy, and that it saw "no fundamental reason" why Scotland could not float its own currency.
S&P also said a shrinking of Scotland's "unusually large" financial services sector could boost the country's sovereign credit rating by reducing the size of the economy's external balance sheet and reducing its liabilities. A number of Scotland-based financial services companies have voiced opposition to a Yes vote, with insurance giant Standard Life even saying it would move operations from its Edinburgh headquarters if Scots opt for independence in September. ..."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10665032/Scotland-could-go-it-alone-Standard-and-Poors.html
They obviously want to ignore the reality that Merkel and Cammie just made a massive fool of gullible Eurosceptics, yet again.
BundesAngie @BundesAngie 1m
Merkel Dampens UK Expectations On EU Reform: Those expecting Germany to pave the way for fundamental EU reform... http://binged.it/N6YgD2
Karl Frampton @Karl_Frampton 3m
Think Angela Merkel went down with the Tory Eurosceptics like a Lead Zeppelin!
Olaf Cramme @olafcramme 49m
Bang. #Merkel: “Those who hoped my speech will pave the way for fundamental #EU reform based on British wishes will be disappointed.”
J.S. Lindley-French @FrencLindley 1m
Merkel in London offers no straws for Cameron to cling onto. If anything Eurosceptics will have hardened their views. Forget renegotiation.
At the same time they wouldn't want to write Salmond a blank cheque, and he may prefer to have his own currency rather than put up with the restrictions that London might feel it needed, but it has to at least be worthwhile for both sides to at least _try_ to cut a deal.
Clegg agreeing to the publicity circus debate will presumable help as will panicking tory Eurosceptics and indeed this. The kippers seem happy today that's for sure.
Their problem is that the polls just haven't been moving for them like they did before last May. If they can't start them moving up soon then they might be in real trouble.
A year ago it was 2/1 UKIP and 10s the Conservatives, and you had Conservatives favourite in the match.. 4/6 vs 11/10...this seems to defy any betting logic I have ever come across
It would be just about plausible if it were a spread bet
Combined with the Home Office's complete lack of awareness of blatant fraud in the immigration industry, from the testing of candidates through to financial documentation, Theresa May has royally cocked up.
F1: Red Bull appears to have an ERS problem. NB, unlike KERS, which added 0.3s per lap, or so, the ERS is critical. I forget the precise figures but it's circa tenfold as important. Losing it early on in a race means you'd need other cars to fail to have even a chance of points.
Mr. Max, there are few advantages. No transaction costs, but if big firms like Standard Life move south then the increase in tax revenue would more than offset such fees, *and* we wouldn't have to be lender of last resort to a foreign country.
Mr. Shadsy, probably not your area but will Ladbrokes be putting up some unusual markets for the Australian Grand Prix, given the testing situation?
I'm thinking of things like Engine/Power Unit markets (whether Renault, Mercedes or Ferrari score most, get a clean sweep of the podium etc), Marussia or Caterham to score points and that sort of thing.
Hague warns Putin not to interfere in Ukraine while Cameron encourages Putin to intervene to prevent Scottish independence #indyref
Tom Delargy @derekrootboy Feb 21
Alistair Carmichael want to remind #bbcaq listeners David Cameron tried to enlist Putin to help him crush Scottish independence?
Fop chicken.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10663580/Patricia-Hewitts-civil-rights-campaign-offered-legal-advice-to-adults-who-have-sex-with-14-year-olds.html
"Nothing to see here!" "It's all a smear!" Etc.
Not sure the fop or Hague have much of a leg to stand on posturing on the Ukraine after begging Putin to intervene in scotland. It shows just how weak the fop is.
Mick Pork: "The guy is a hypocrite because situation A is like situation B"
Morris Dancer: "But situation A is not like situation B because of reason X"
Mick Pork: "The guy is a hypocrite because situation A is like situation B"
David Cameron's migration pledge 'in tatters', as figures reveal net immigration of 200,000: Net annual immigr... http://bit.ly/1epeEcA
Perhaps you might consider, albeit in the unlikely event, that should Scotland opt for independence offering a market on their currency come Jan 2018.
I'm especially interested in what odds there might be for these two possibilities :
1. Barter - No currency
or some currency union with a Scottish link :
2. Armenian Dram
Although looking on Wikipedia, I'm shocked to discover that he was born in Devon. I'll never think of him in the same way again ...
Also, today has seen a significant Standard Life story. Not commenting on it, given the significant discussion on the independence referendum, would be rather odd.
F1: seems like Mercedes and Red Bull are done for the day. Latter team got in a decent 30 laps or so in one stint, but then suffered ERS failure. If that breaks in the first race they'll be lucky to score points.
The Dram idea is a good one. I have in the past suggested a well known brand of tonic wine. I know it is a product of South Devon but that's the point: a whisky-based currency would be too easy to forge, whereas no one is likely to crack the ageless secret recipe of the Benedictine brethren.
We must be due a flounce soon, surely....
I make that a solid 10 on the socrates pomposity register as well as a highly amusing 10 for your complete lack of self awareness. I don't know how to break it to you chum but you aren't the entirety of PB. Not even if you stamp your little feet very hard indeed and petulantly DEMAND an apology while others laugh at the spectacle.
Don't dish it out if you can't take it back chum.
I can scarcely think of anyone who's 'respect' I would desire less than a muslim and paedophile obsessed ranter like yourself, unless it was from say Nick Griffin.
I care just as little for the opinions of the right-wingers on here who are programmed to spout out sub Daily Mail ramblings and rants.
Flounce off again and we'll see just how many people care because very few did before.
Mind you, Devon's a rather lovely place.
So am I. I always had the impression SeanT was Cornish.
The orthodox Reagan/Thatcher view used to be that devaluation wasn't really helpful, because it just meant you'd keep putting off solving your problems - for example by reforming the labour market so you don't keep voting yourselves unaffordable wage increases. We'll need a decade or so to see if they were right. Speculators attack a currency peg, not a common unit of exchange. In England's case the big mismatch is between London's financial industry, and the related tendency to form real estate bubbles, and everywhere else.
Poor old Mike. No sooner does he post a new thread, but Merkel turns it all upside-down:
Merkel sobbing about past history. Weepy, weepy!
BUT PLAYING HARDBALL ON RE-NEGOTIATIONS. BUGGER OFF, CAMMO, SHE IS SAYING.
Those poor old tory eurosceptics have had their balls squeezed by a big pair of female hands made in Germany. LOL
The UKIP spring conference has been handed a nice gift from Merky. Farage must have a big smile on his face.
As east-west tensions grow over the Ukraine crisis reports say deposed President Viktor Yanukovych has been spotted in Moscow."
http://news.sky.com/story/1218041/ukraine-russia-puts-fighter-jets-on-alert
Net migration numbers show that one of the government’s boldest policies has been an embarrassing flop. This is excellent news
Britons loathe immigration in principle, but quite like immigrants in practice. For Bulgarians and Romanians, that is good news":
http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2014/02/immigration
Edited extra bit: incidentally (2), I'm thinking of writing a short story set in Scotland.
LOL
Actually, given Nicky Clarke's recent epochal intervention in the Indy debate, evidence is mounting up for Seant's socio-economic and cultural status. I suppose a hairdresser can be posh?
http://tinyurl.com/ppt56a8
I never make things up, in case that was what you were thinking of. I'm obsessed with accuracy — I thought that would have been obvious by now.
http://www.economist.com/
Does it, Mr. Socrates? Does it always? I seem to recall that West Germany built a very successful economy based on a stable currency and mass unemployment wasn't part of that. Whereas, in the UK where we have been devaluing and debauching our currency for decades our economy has declined, our living standards have declined, our greatest export has become our wealth and we have had periods of savage unemployment.
Hhmmm .... the ripening difficulty would need to overcome but 100 Neeps = 1 Tatty has merit but I think I'm coming down to a currency union with Armenia - 100 Drams = 1 Steamin
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101383595
Victory for NO
I'm disappointed.
If you are deranged enough to think the abuse on here is so one-sided on a right wing dominated site like PB then you really should stick to the Daily Mail from now on.
surely this is just the opportunity to invent futures markets. Did barter actually ever exist (at least since th evolution of human language)? wouldn't a de facto currency have emerged, even if it wasn't always the same one? considering polynesians could invent binary numbers for counting vegetables, back in the day..
http://www.nature.com/news/polynesian-people-used-binary-numbers-600-years-ago-1.14380
Your conversation is now closed.
For all PBers
Mike has made it abundantly clear in the past to some posters in private that using sex related crimes to insult other posters is unacceptable.
So this warning is shared with you all.
Please stick to the spirit of this ruling.
Moderation is going to be light today.
If later on we find people unable to stick to the rules appropriate action will be taken.
sam baker @SamBaker 36 mins
So proud of our MPs... RT @CarolineKent: Hmm this is pretty awkward when you put it like that http://tinyurl.com/o8f9b8y
"Scots say decisive NO."
'He wasn't the brightest, but once he was on the trail of that knicker thief, he just wouldn't let go.'
UN denounces Vatican over child abuse and demands immediate action http://fb.me/3PVIcICcm
I'm not explaining this well.
Seems clear Cameron has massively over-spun this Merkel visit. Next 24 hours will be fun.
Yes, it will.
I see you've deleted my posts, but left posts insulting me. Any chance of some consistency? I never understood why certain posters are allowed to constant insult and abuse others on here, but it is only when the attacked respond that they both get censored...
Germany's Merkel to Cameron - I can't satisfy all Britain's EU wishes - Reuters UK - http://bit.ly/1dEhxCi pic.twitter.com/1CV51DYOIg
He's not going to embarrass himself again and start begging petulantly is he?
Oh dear.
Where's a Veto Flounce when you need one?
The problem you present to classifiers is similar to that created by Southam Observer: you are both right footed players who have chosen wrongly to play on the left wing.
We need to draw up a new set of PB Classification rules which are based on intelligence and articulacy rather than class and social history.
It would avoid many misunderstandings and arguments.
It might even prevent Richard N getting locked into argument with Richard T: as clear an example one can get of how weapons of mass destruction can lead to mutually assured destruction.
Some have been deleted others will be deleted later on today.
They are going to be so far behind on their testing program that it'll be hard to recover, especially as they still appear to be cutting holes in the bodywork to cool them down.
You said earlier that the engines were soon to be frozen. I thought just the base engine was going to be frozen, with changes allowed to some parts of the engine and various ancillaries such as the ERS until mid-season. But I can't find where I read that, so the BBC tweet was probably right. Bah.