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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three months to go till the Euros and concern about UKIP’s key policy, immigration, sees a sharp drop in the Issues Index
The February Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is out and the summary findings are above. As can be seen the big mover since January has been immigration which has fallen 7%.
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@Life_ina_market_town
The indictment has been stayed by a High Court Judge as an abuse of process, and the Crown have indicated that they will not be seeking leave to appeal the ruling (if indeed an appeal lies against it). Unless new evidence comes to light as explained in the letter from the Northern Ireland office to the defendant, this is the end of the matter. My view is that the case raises an important point of law of general public importance which the Crown, at the very least, should have tried to have determined by the Court of Appeal (Criminal Division).
I agree fully that there should be an appeal heard.
I guess though that political expedience will mean that the government will be reluctant to poke their stick into the hornets' nest of the GFA and NI politics.
It will therefore depend on public reaction to the Court's decision. My temperature reading so far is that the decision is generating less heat than Harman et al's passive support of paedophile rights advocacy in the 1970s.
Methinks, we have all got our priorities wrong here.
Prime Ministers and Secretaries of State making 'judicial' decisions in secret following the failure of political negotiations to resolve policy on the matter addressed appears to me a far more serious public interest issue than Harman's youthful indiscretions at the NCCL.
Good evening, everyone.
Mr. Palmer, there's an implied suggestion there that our binary choice is perpetual warfare or dissolving nations in the vile institution of the EU. During the last 60 years we also haven't had a war with Japan, or Canada.
Of course, individually, humans are very similar. But culturally there are wide differences, and it's legitimate for different countries to try and pursue different approaches, whether on social or economic issues.
I'd also dispute that this is some sort of magic time. There's the genocide that occurred a couple of decades ago in Yugoslavia, for a start. Furthermore, Rome knew no civil war during the Golden Age of emperors (Nerva to Marcus Aurelius, though the latter is dramatically overrated), 96AD to 180AD. The city was rather safe and delightful during this period (somehow they coped without EU membership).
The EU is vile because it is Littlefinger and Varys, without the morality and honour. We find ourselves surrendering sovereignty piece by piece, and nobody asked us.
F1: for those interested I laid Rosberg on Betfair at 8, having backed him at 24. Flat if someone else wins, green if he does.
And?
In past few decades all polling have found that the SNP's key policy, Scottish independence, was miles down the issues index, light years behind health, housing, the economy, education etc. In some surveys it was barely clinging on to the bottom of the table, in the low single percentage points. And yet here we are about to have a referendum on that very topic.
I wouldn't put too much stock in those tables Mike.
(Incidentally, I would have thought that the UK's independence from the EU was their key policy, not immigration.)
Not a bad record, is it, especially given the starting point.
Nick Palmer OAFMP said
"I wonder if a lot of Europhilia/scepticism comes down to personal impressions about this. I suppose I've visited most countries in Europe, and lived in several for decades. The overwhelming impression that I've taken away is how similar they are to us - similar hopes, fears, ambitions, beliefs. They vary among themselves, as we do, but we're basically all the same gang or, to put it a little more poshly, the same demos.
We've spent several hundred years denying that and fighting each other, and 60 years not denying it and trying to work together. Trying to split that up seems to me as wrong-headed as trying to separate England from Scotland - also places with differences of tradition and culture, but with more in common than the differences."
I suspect the only reason I will have spent less time living and working in other countries than you Nick is because I am not yet quite at your venerable age :-)
That said I am afraid that you are entirely wrong about Euroscepticism. It is not based upon whether or not they are similar or different to us on a personal level but because they are very different to us in terms of their political and legal systems and the relationship between the state and the individual. Put simply we are a very long way from being one demos and our cultural differences are far larger than the similarities.
The recent very excellent conclusion of the Cornetto Trilogy 'World's End' exemplified this perfectly with the drunken heroes rejecting the chance to become part of the galactic civilisation because of what it would mean surrendering. We reserve the right to make our own decisions, as contrary and self destructive as they may be, and to choose to cock things up on our own terms without some supranational body trying to tell us what to do. That does not mean we will always be right nor that everything will be better because of the choices we make. But they will be our choices and we will take responsibility for them ourselves.
For exactly the same reason I support Scottish Independence even though I freely admit I have no idea whether or not in the end it will be better or worse for Scotland. At least they will take their own decisions about their own future.
I know that you are one of the Jentaloven disciples but I am afraid that is not a British trait and I doubt it is something we will ever accept.
I think you are setting up a nice little straw man here.
FWIW, I grew up in England, with English, Welsh, Scottish and Irish grandparents but spent the summers in Italy. I have family living in France, Belgium and Switzerland and married and American (plus also have family from Tennessee of all places!). My professional career has been spent in Scandinavia, Germany, France and Switzerland.
So, overall, a pretty good view of Europe and Europeans.
Superficially, the same things interest us all - family, careers, standard of living etc. But so many of the underlying assumptions are very very different. I adore my Walloon cousins, for instance - but wouldn't let them anywhere near our government.
Recognise Europeans for what they are: proud tribes of independently minded people who share many things in common and should co-operate when it is to mutual advantage, but should be free to plough their own furrow when it doesn't.
Schools I would put down to the spat above Gove a couple of weeks ago, and housing probably a result of the spring uptick in house buying interest and people realising how darn expensive it is.
But generally things are getting better and on a much broader front than just the economy - implications for VI in due course?
Does anyone still have money on Ms David Mills (Berlusconi Finance and Services) being the Labour candidate to replace BoJo? Seriously....
Prior to today, I had assumed that it did not lie within the power of a member of the government to grant immunity from prosecution to a murder suspect.
It should do the tories good that the economy is out front again, albeit concern on that has dropped by the average amount. Still very little sign of this in the polls though. If I was involved in the re-election campaign that would be my biggest single concern.
The fall in concern about the NHS once again demonstrates what a good job Jeremy Hunt is doing of keeping that quiet. No winter chaos, no reorganisational chaos, increasing focus on the quality of care and the complete demolition of the nonsensical box ticking and gold stars of the Labour years. He even sounds quite human which is fairly distinctive in this government. If he can neutralise the NHS for the tories he will have done a lot more than his share.
... and that then comfortably off, middle class lefties wont be able to try and pretend the whole country benefits equally from mass immigration as they do now
Shocking behaviour, you really do want the rich richer and the poor poorer as long as average GDP goes up, let alone the social cost to working class people
http://www.cps.gov.uk/legal/a_to_c/abuse_of_process/
""... circumstances can exist where it will be an abuse of process to prosecute a man for conduct in respect of which he has been given an assurance that no prosecution will be brought. It is by no means easy to define a test for those circumstances other than to say that they must be such as to render the proposed prosecution an affront to justice." "
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/02/25/some-thoughts-before-the-final-pre-season-test/
Mercedes - 6,265
Ferrari - 2,989
Renault - 2,485
Totals for the two tests to date. Also worth bearing in mind Ferrari has just 3 teams rather than 4, which the others have.
We might all be wrong, but it does look like Mercedes are sitting pretty, and Renault have problems. The third test starts on the 27th, and after the 28th the engines can only be altered for safety/reliability.
It's not that we're not getting fewer Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants, it's that the quality of those immigrants will improve once those who want to work here legally can do so without difficulty. Before the restrictions were lifted, we got the worst of both worlds: unrestricted right to travel to the UK for Bulgarians and Romanians, but no automatic right to work. The consequence was that those Bulgarians and Romanians who wished to support themselves through illegal activities were disproportionately likely to travel to Britain.
They both do significant damage to UK businesses. FACTA is - I suspect - deliberately protectionist by the US. But MIFID damages the UK because the EU doesn't understand the industry it is trying regulate - but doesn't want to listen to the UK regardless of our greater expertise. Being in Europe really doesn't yield much in the way of influence.
As for the executive's power to grant immunity to a murder suspect, there is the royal prerogative of mercy, which can be exercised both before and after conviction, and the provisions of section 7 of the Intelligence Services Act 1994.
Europe: the feeling is surely that all these Europeans may do something 'European' which in some way isn't British! I think we have something of a blind spot for the fact that us Brits rarely conduct our own affairs in this long lost British way. There's still a glimmer left though I guess.
Scotland: I wonder if it will be possible for me to claim some share of Scotland's oil revenue - I'm 1/8th Scottish, and I'm sure that my ancestors wouldn't have accepted the King's shilling if they'd known that they'd be giving up any claim to their homeland. Perhaps it's all easily settled by referring to who in principle owns all of the land that isn't otherwise bought or paid for - the Queen. Somewhat tongue-in-cheek clearly, but I think I might register a claim with the Scottish government if they do declare themselves independent.
If a mistake has been made in this case it is surely the commencement of proceedings given the existence of the letter and the assurance that that gave. At the very least careful consideration should have been given to the question of whether or not the exceptions in the letter (such as new evidence not available at the time the letter was written) could properly be presented to the court with a coherent explanation as to why any assurance no longer applied. The judgment indicates this was not done.
I understand the concern about the principle but it seems to me that the Judge is spot on with this decision and the government would be well advised not to take the matter further. Sometimes a price needs to be paid for peace and the lives saved over the last decade in Northern Ireland make this a price worth paying, however distasteful it might be.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states
It is really bewildering.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/nigel-farage-im-immensely-looking-forward-to-saying-i-dont-agree-with-nick-clegg-9152731.html
Of course our ancestry might lead to obligation too. Did we gun and run?
I fully expect Renault engines to be very competitive and comparatively reliable by the time of the European races. Likewise, expect Ferrari engine reliability to be slightly comparatively worse in the second half of the season.
Now there's a prediction to hold me to!
As for engine homologation: if you look what happened when those rules came in five or so years back, the definition of 'safety' and 'reliability' were rather lax for the first season. Also note only parts of the engines are being homologatised; other parts can still be freely changed for a while yet, AIUI.
It is the Scottish people who hold sovereignty, not a state or a parliament, as you are about to find out.
The UK has never been, and probably never will be, a single state. It is a multi-state entity. Anyone with any elementary grounding in Scottish civil society understands that.
I'm sure we as a people believe that our character is that of the old ways. I'm equally sure that our actual character is nothing of the sort. I don't know where this leaves us.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larne_gun-running
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claim_of_Right_1989
There has been a degree of 'Europeanisation' of our systems in the last 40 years unfortunately but the differences still remain and are both considerable and important.
Some of the other actions have been good with the NHS reforms also, but mostly it was the weather.
Alex Salmond may be a former energy economist, but Scotland's first minister has yet to persuade a sceptical industry of the benefits of independence.
An Aberdeen chamber of commerce debate on oil and independence left little doubt of that. A vote at the start of the meeting found that only 11 per cent of attendees thought the oil and gas sector would be more likely to prosper in an independent Scotland.....
In a minor boost to the nationalist cause, a vote at the end of the breakfast found the proportion of attendees who thought the oil sector more likely to prosper under independence had risen.
But at a still meagre 13 per cent, the SNP clearly has a long way to go.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c34f753c-9e30-11e3-95fe-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2uMiGG8H5
Here's a handy wikipedia explanation of sovereign states:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_state
The United Kingdom meets the definition. Its component parts do not. Even the most voluble outbursts of whisky-inspired ravings will not change that.
Don't forget even a significant chunk of Tory supporters prefer Labour on health, so an NHS crisis would peel off some of those supporters. It won't purely be a case of people thinking "it's the Tories fault that the NHS has imploded", because most people probably will recognise the NHS's problems are more complex and longterm than that -- the thinking will probably be more like "sorting out the NHS is the absolute top issue right now, and Labour is the only party we can trust to do that". So the Tories had better start praying the NHS manages to just about hang together until next May.
"[We] hereby acknowledge the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs"
but I would happily accept that, and also, if ever a thing were written,
"[We] hereby acknowledge the sovereign right of the British people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs".
Stuart, correct me if I am wrong, but I am not sure you would accept the second.
I would consider both prospective; and indeed I have never doubted the right of the Scottish people to vote on an achieve independence should they support it.
What is sure, is that the British model had admirers. We should undoubtedly consider very carefully whether such merit has somehow vanished.
The Scottish people and their state have, thus far, chosen to remain members of the United Kingdom. But they can change their minds whenever they like. That is the very essence of sovereignty.
Methinks you are confusing 'sovereignty' with 'sovereign state'.....
I never claimed to speak on behalf of our nation. That is the first minister's job.
http://www.channel4.com/news/wt4-north-south-debate
I had to take my elderly neighbour who had a fall. Turns out he has multiple spiral fractures in his arm. The staff were mostly superb, but really, there did seem a point at which they were almost overwhelmed.
A small minority of the Scottish people have however chosen to whinge, bleat, and generally be disgruntled. There may be very good reasons why they have done so, but there are also good reason why the majority of Scottish people have just got on with life.
Sorting out rogue management has prevented another Stafford scandal, though I hear rumours about one or two places. Ringfencing the NHS budget has helped, something Labour would not promise in 2010. Much to do still, but the NHS is a better place to work than five years ago.
You've taken me a little out of my depth I'm afraid. Overall our historical systems have served us well, but I wouldn't necessarily assert their superiority - it would after all be a bit odd if others hadn't spotted that if it were true. What perhaps was once true, and perhaps isn't now, is that we had the people that could make the system really work. Perhaps though it has always been such.
As antifrank observes, the truth is perhaps somewhere in between. Perhaps the difference is in whether we feel that moving closer so it becomes (even?) more true is an appealing prospect or not.
Anyway, thanks for the exchange - nice to see that it's possible to have a civilised discussion even about Europe...
On topic, as DavidL observes, this sample simply seems a happier bunch altogether. That may be a sample error - we've seen contentedness appear and disappear before. I must say I'm not encountering any great passions on the doorstep - a fair number of people are quite settled that they want to switch, but it's mostly LD->Lab without any great feeling of taking a revolutionary step. No single issue stands out.