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Will GE2024 produce a majority seats winner without a majority of votes? – politicalbetting.com

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Err... Did they miss 2005?
The public are suspicious of electoral reform in any case. FPTP is the devil we know.
Both major parties would see it in terms of empowering the extremes. Reform would enter Parliament in a sizeable way, and the Greens would become Hard Left Labour and take a similar slice.
If the Conservative constituency offices in marginal seats can allocate their 3 million ex-Pat voters expediently we could see a Con majority with Labour several percentage points ahead on the popular vote.
That really isn't an argument for sticking with FPTP.
What you actually mean is that the two big parties see it as a threat to their duopoly.
The bigger problem with FPTP in recent times is that it has provided messy Parliaments instead of the democratic dictatorship that it is supposed to. 2010 and 2017 were both examples of that although the first was fixed by the Coalition. 2019 was a return to form and I think this time, particularly with the collapse of the SNP, will be likewise.
You can't leave me hanging like that. It is like reading an Agatha Christie novel only to find the last page has been ripped out.
FPTP is responsible for many ills, but sadly I have to agree with Mike. Ain't gonna change.
Perhaps most people think, however vaguely, that the deals and horse trading of PR etc in whatever form will multiply the power of Galloways and Lozzas and reduce the influence of dull centrists, which is where most of us are. I think they are right.
Seriously though, I don't get that impression. PR would not of course have given Blair a majority government in 2005. Probably a Lab-Lib coalition assuming same parties, but then many of us assumed 2010 would lead to a Lab-Lib coalition if the Conservatives failed to get a majority.
I do, though, take issue with the last sentence of that quote - "And in 2019 a huge majority was delivered with the difference between a hung parliament and large majority resting within a polling margin of error." There is no polling error in a GE - everyone gets the chance to vote, there is no polling error. Changes within pre-election sample poll error might have led to different outcomes, but the result on the day was clear. As was the result in the Brexit referendum - the margin would be impossible to call with traditional sample polling as it was too close, but there's no sampling error in a national poll.
Since I’ve seen quite a few PBer describe the coalition years as the best government of their adult lives I’m surprised there aren’t more fans of the messy but representative compromises that PR would likely bring.
They would have allowed STV for council elections though without a referendum.
Backs up my view that the next election will be 1974 rather than 1997. Of course,once in power SKS might surprise the electorate on the up side, as Wilson did between 64 and 66, but I really doubt it...
We have Dutch friends and it's fascinating talking to them around (Dutch) election time. Weighing up the detailed policies of two or three parties that they actually like and ultimately choosing the one that most closely aligns to their priorities, rather than just voting for B because they're really fed up with A.
ETA: Or the post PR landscape might look quite differnt to the above, who knows? And we'll probably, unfortunately, never get to find out because of the vested interest of winners under FPTF in keeping FPTP
And, strictly of course, no system is (or can be) completely proportional, and even those that aim at such generally have some sort of threshold below which a vote tally does not get anyone elected, for example the 5% used in Germany.
It's hard to see whether that would be a good thing or not, and there are bound to be unexpected consequences from what follows.
From my POV the Conservative party today is at least three parties, the Labour party is at least two as are the Lib Dems.
And surely 2005 was more unrepresentative than 2015? Funny they don't mention that one! That's the trouble with the ERS. It's basically a left of centre organisation. Which is fine if you think all the advocates for electoral reform will be on the left.
They wouldn't accept a deal on the basis of anything else.
OK the wartime national Gov't overwhelmingly likely had > 50% support but it was never tested for obvious reasons.
Since some of its most prominent members were extremely left wing, that is quite an endorsement.
From their manifesto
It's clear that the current system forces choice between the two larger parties, not just among voters but also among those seeking political careers. Many Tory and Labour politicians have chosen their allegiance as 'least worst' and there are tons of people who started out as centre party supporters but jumped ship one way or the other when their student political activity got them thinking about a possible political career, from Peter Hain through Liz Truss and many many others.
Political organisations to the left of Labour and right of the Tories already exist, and should possible careers open up as politicians within those, then we'd move toward a five-party system, with some Socialist and UKIP/Reform type parties on the extremes. This would change the nature of Labour (more social democratic) and LibDems (more orange book), and its likely that the LibDems would retain their political space at poll ratings closer to the current than historical ones. In normal times you'd expect the Conservatives to continue as some sort of establishment/christian democrat type party, but given current turmoil it's equally possible that the currently homeless one nation Tories seek careers within a rejuvenated centre party.
Whether environmentalism is sufficient branding to allow space for a separate Green party is an interesting question; in Germany it does, but it's equally possible that the Greens might emerge as the spiritual home for the corbynites.
Clarification that 2015 was the "most disproportionate result" because Ukip got screwed rather than the Tories doing especially well.
Rule this lot? You gotta be kidding.
Probably the best Sunak can hope for is to do a Corbyn in 2017 or Brown in 2010 and close the gap enough with Starmer to get a hung parliament
b) In most European countries running PR the centre right party is one of the main parties and often forms governments without coalitions with the far right and happily forms coalitions with liberals, social democrats etc.
We all dislike some politicians and politics. The way to defeat them is through a fair election - we saw off the BNP didn't we? The problem we have is that the Tories not only want to stop non-Tories voting, they now want to fly in votes from Baku to save them, and Labour had a chance to reform things and instead decided that a 179 majority was better for them in the long run. How did that work out lads?
Kwasi Kwarteng, a giant among Conservative Chancellors of the Exchequer, is to stand down at the next election.
The 2005 General Election: Worst Election Ever
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-and-research/publications/2005-general-election/
I used to love PR, I'm now opposed. Too much power would go to those who make candidate lists. I don't love coalition govt either - hard for people to know what they are voting for.
Someone who promises to reduce crime to zero, no more graffiti, no litter, no machetes, no fly tipping, no invading boats, no football hooligans, no loudspeakers on buses, none of that shit, just a nice calm orderly society, and people having lovely picnics - and then he actually delivers that
This would win in every society, day in day out
There are many proportional electoral systems that introduce choice within a party's candidates, like STV or a list system with intra-list voting.
I guess I could get more involved and support 'my' wing of the party but honestly I simply cannot be arsed, and political activists can be horrifically tiresome.
STV in say five seat constituencies reduce the power of parties as you can choose between candidates of the same party instead of being stuck with whoever is put up.
I also think there would remain a true liberal party. I would be a member and all 6 of us could meet in my living room for our AGM.
I'm planning to run for President of Peru as leader of the Corrupt Gringo Party. Slogans include
- "We will steal half"
- "We will invest the money we steal in the Peruvian economy"
- "We will sell the country to foreign interests, but get a good price"
Not Happening Event.