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The challenge facing Sunak – politicalbetting.com
The challenge facing Sunak – politicalbetting.com
?NEW: Rishi Sunak would need to pull off the biggest political comeback in 70 years to win the next election Ten months out, no party has overturned a polling deficit of 7 points or more; Sunak is 20pts behind.With @Steven_Swinford @oliver_wright https://t.co/Xl27Nn3ggc pic.twitter.com/tr8sX9YRYJ
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That's like saying we shouldn't arrest criminals because it would lead to a large number of arrests.
Where should they go? Have a more secure education system for them where they can be educated without causing harm to others.
I rather hope not. Though it seems that line falls at the first hurdle.
Poor from Wales. They look decidedly weak
Seem unlikely.
Just look at the respective Ipsos leader ratings at this point in the electoral cycle.
I would have hoped you would have learned from your Corbyn experience.
The fact that there are awful people right at one end ofthe bellcurve and amongst a population of 70million shitty things sometimes happen shouldn't be seen as a reason to despair of the system. Of course, any such institution will always be able to do more with more resources, but not everybad news story should mean we need to change the system.
The stepmom just doesn't cover it.
Meanwhile, the education of other children is hopelessly disrupted. This should be unacceptable but the DfE don't understand or as far as can be judged care about the problem.
By all accounts one person who *does* is Martyn Oliver, who was famous for expelling large numbers of disruptive children from his schools. But of course, even as chief of OFSTED he has no real power to change the system.
How about "Russian conscript" as a new analogy?
Fair point on the approval ratings but that wasn't what I was referring to.
Don't make a post if you don't want people to respond to it with questions.
And there’s a whole load of laughing foreign legionnaires queuing to have a go
That’s the Tories; I believe that nicely captures their plight
2. Your analogy with criminals isn't relevant, as we don't imprison kids.
3. As others have mentioned, pupil referral units (PRUs) are struggling to cope with the limited business they currently have, without having to pick up thousands more expulsions.
4. Is it really that good an idea to put all the badly-behaved kids in the same place(s) rather than spreading them out?
At my wife's last school they regularly had to keep pupils as there were no spaces at the PRU.
I had some dealings not long ago in trying to find accommodation for one school which dealt specifically with young people suffering with mental health challenges including suicidal tendencies. It's not a world with which I'm familiar but those involved deserve all the respect and support (and dare I say it, remuneration) going.
There will be those who would argue teachers and assistants in those schools do a more valuable job and deserve better pay than many if not most.
And how's the baby?
We should expect things to improve.
You said 'SKS is looking very much like a Tony Blair', a better comparator would have been Labour in 2024 are doing as well as Labour in 1996.
Ironically, he's been one of the most vocal critics of OFSTED over many of these issues for many years.
Whether he can turn it round - or, alternatively, come up with a more credible alternative, which realistically is probably the best option now - is going to be quite a test for him.
I do hope for everyone's sake, including his own, that he's up to it, but I cannot see any shame if he falls short.
Good luck to him.
(or fowl even)
That is not controversial.
It is also an idea of the DfE, who are chiefly known for drinking and arithmetical errors. Which doesn't inspire confidence anyway.
We might ask ourselves other questions, perhaps. Why are there so many of them? Why is it schools always have to pick up the mess for failings that are nothing to do with them? What should we be doing to properly sort this out?
There was when Blair replaced Major, and (somewhat less) when Cameron replaced Brown. Some were very pleased about the 2016 vote, and some when Johnson went.
But I'm not getting that vibe. Sunak's got to go, they've all got to go, and come back when they have thought about what they've done and promised to be better in the future. But it's a tedious necessity.
I imagine getting treatment from the clap clinic is much the same. Perhaps someone who had led a more colourful life can confirm.
2. If appropriate we do have appropriate juvenile centres to send kids to.
3. So? Invest more in expanding PRUs if necessary, that's not an excuse to harm the education of others. Give the pupils with behavioural issues the support they need in PRUs, and give other kids the education they need without disruption.
4. Who said they should all be in the same place? If you invest in expanding the network of PRUs then couldn't they be even more spread out than at present? But if need be, maybe, better than them dragging down other kids with them.
This time it will be like removing ten tons of rotting rubbish from the backyard. A grim but needed job
I imagine some ardent lefties will feel a little joy, most people will be wearily relieved it is over
Brown probably did the same unwillingly as did Johnson.
This is different - the anger is much wider and deeper than just Sunak, it is directed at the entire Conservative Party (safe for a few locally-based semi-independents) who have led the Government since 2010. I know some on here will try to put up all kinds of evidence showing how much more wonderful life is and how much better off we all are since 2010 but tha6t's not how people see it and feel it.
Rather like perceptions about crime and the number of muslims in the population, it's very hard for the truth or any kind of objective assessment to get a hearing. Minds are made up, many in the electorate simply want to give the Conservatives a good kicking (a better analogy than most of those @TSE comes up with) and it may not end with the GE. It may be the kickings will continue for a few years yet hindering the party's recovery.
The Tories are as doomed as the Bulgarians/Samuel II at the Battle of Kleidion.
Where there are excellent whole school behaviour policies and strong leadership they have waiting lists. So they can be choosy about who they take, and when disruptive children do slip through the cracks they are very quickly 'manage moved' elsewhere (which seems to be what happened in this case, incidentally). What does tend to happen though is that as a result behaviour in schools around them gets much worse as they pick up the ones that are rejected and find they can't move them on themselves. I have seen that in both Gloucestershire and Staffordshire. In Gloucester, indeed, for many years one of the best schools in terms of educational practice was Oxstalls, but because St Peter's, Chosen Hill and the grammars quickly booted any troublemakers to them the behaviour was terrible, and so were the educational outcomes.
I think your background is in FE and admin. An altogether different ballgame. You would, I think and hope, be shocked at the tricks schools get up to to fool inspection teams and parents.
This could be a 20+ point win for Scotland; indeed, should be
Although your earlier observation about the Battle of Mons Graupius also works.
The only team that might stop Ireland is England - they’ve got Ireland at Twickers. I’d still have Ireland as easy faves tho
David Sole's team in 1990 broke this eleven year old's heart that day.
At least we got revenge in a match that really mattered a year later.
Nevertheless, I don't want to argue with you. So - could England still turn it around against India?
And the battle of Roßbach won't do either as the Prussians went in as very much the underdog, which is not the case for Labour.
I apologise for the mistake over your background being in FE. It was based on something you once said, which I clearly misunderstood. The admin - well, you are associated in some capacity with the DfE and OFSTED.
I've spent nineteen years in three comps, including two inner city comps, two universities, one grammar school and two private schools trying to get the system to work. What I've seen has inspired a mixture of disillusionment, disgust and red rage that means Susan Acland-Hood, Amanda Spielman, Nick Gibb, Christopher Wormald, Dominic Cummings, Ed Balls and Sam Freedman would not be safe if they ever happened to meet me. So you're probably wise not to want to quarrel.
I've come to the conclusion in the words of one Bob the Builder inspired meme, 'can we fix it? No, it's fucked.'
The reasons are complex, but chronic central mismanagement is certainly one. Lack of understanding on behavioural issues is a part of that, although to be fair it's a symptom as much as a cause.
Boris Johnson = James Francis Edward Stuart
Nadine Dorries= Charles Edward Stuart
Rishi Sunak = George II
(Yes it is a work in progress)
I note Ofsted inspectors were threatened with disciplinary action if they tried to use Word, rather than the flaky proprietary system.
Also, why were they using an open input system with no autosave function? Annoying as Vanilla saving multiple posts can be, at least it's a simple trick that stops you losing an entire post. It should not have been beyond even the limited wits of Spielman and Russell to ask for something similar.
In little over a year he's managed to destroy his reputation by tying himself to his party's crackpots to the extent that there would be a huge outburst of joy from those who want rid of the Tories. Or more a sigh of relief that 14 years of failure is finally over. But that will be something to cheer for.
Mary of Modena = Liz Truss?
Lord Murray = Now that is really tricky. Lisa Cameron?
Whatever Sunak's strengths, he clearly has terrible judgement. On HS2, on small boats, on tax, on cabinet personnel, he's constantly made not just a poor choice but the worst imaginable choice.
Very impressive
Maybe after all I can see why Rees Zammit bailed
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/12/19/replacing-the-irreplaceable/
Not to be confused with our own @AramintaMoonbeamQC
Now 0 - 4 v Villa
Boris was Charles II - fun, profligate, fecund, restorer of his side's political fortunes, and a bit of a shit.
Rishi is James Il - unable to cope with the political situation he is in, and attempts to push unpopular ideas too hard, despised by Parliament.
Starmer is William III - calculating, knows how to seize a chance, and willing to compromise principles for power.
Truss is Monmouth.
He would also be the first First Minister not to be fluent in Welsh.
The first may tell in his favour given the electorate. The second will surely tell against him given his opponent is a native speaker and Labour are nervous about Plaid's threat to their flank.
@TSE - as there are only two candidates I fear that the AV will not come into play.
Willing to be Dom's Sub.
One of the first of May's ministers to come out for Boris.
Backing Brexit before it was cool.
But where is our King George?
I don’t think they will but a man can dream
If the first, he's fucked (possibly by a random inspector).
If the second, current experience suggests the country's fucked.
Of course, the downside is its harder for a poor team to compete with a bit of luck and effort.
The process.
In spaceflight, similar processes led to the belief that you couldn't develop anything new. Too many projects slowly failed, for more and more money. Maybe buy magic engines from dusty sheds in Russia - engines the Russians had forgotten to build. So the SLS staggered to a completion data. $100 million dollars per RS-25 rocket engine. Not to build them. But to warm over Space Shuttle engines. And make them throw away, not reusable.
Just by not following the failed process, a company is building modern engines, of pretty much equivalent power, for less than $1m a pop. They haven't quite got to their goal of $250K per engine, but are about half way there.
Nicely summed up by a supporter of the old way of doing things - "The traditional guys are often late. The 'Commercial' guys are often late, but cost ten times less. But they are still late - what have I gained?"
Seriously, someone actually said that.
I am working in a bank where we are tearing through the old systems in Middle Office. Our replacements are simpler and easier to understand. Full of rec's against each other and external systems. With a fully documented specification that actually matches the code *and* the business requirements.
We are smashing rice bowls, I suppose. But management are backing us. Because we got rid of the legacy systems that were slowly failing and never looked back from there.
It is why Adelaide 2006 is seared on my brain for life.