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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’ll finish fourth?

Fourth is, according to Olympic pundits, the cruellest finishing position.  I don’t buy it.  Who’d rather finish fifth or sixth than fourth, or, looking at it the other way, who enters a competition to finish third?  Higher is better, first is best and last is worst.

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JohnLoony

Lib Dems will definitely be fourth. The residual core vote is reasonably solid and can't be reduced any further than it essentially already has. It might be as low as 10% or 9% but it won't go down to 7% or 6%. It might even be firmed up to 12% or 13% by Clegg's anti-Farage sabre-rattling. The Green Party, meanwhile, is fairly rubbish at this sort of thing and won't be able to get above 8%.

Innocent_Abroad

The Greens also don't have (and IIRC don't want) a figurehead leader of the sort the other parties have.

NickPalmer

Interesting article. The Greens aren't doing badly nationally in local elections with low turnout and have occupied the space vacated by the LibDems as the uncompromising environmentalist left-wingers. All the same, the gap to the LibDems, even if their current reduced state, is probably too large to bridge. The Greens lack a significant chunk of vaguely associated floating voters who quite like them, which is important to all mass parties; the people who like them really like them, but most people don't even consider voting for them.

AlastairMeeks

The public mood remains surly and I can imagine the Greens achieving a substantial protest vote on a low turn out, as they did in 1989.

I guess the question is whether the Lib Dems have a floor and if so what is it.

ThomasNashe

The Greens did manage to get something like 20% in the 1987 Euro elections, showing they are as capable of engineering a surge as any other minor party. And perhaps renewed concern about climate change in the wake of the floods could be the issue they need for renewed prominence. But they do have to get on and re-energise themselves pretty quickly.

ThomasNashe

antifrank said:

The public mood remains surly and I can imagine the Greens achieving a substantial protest vote on a low turn out, as they did in 1989.

I guess the question is whether the Lib Dems have a floor and if so what is it.

Yes, you're right. 1989, not 1987.

JackW

This thread was heading to be the shortest Herders thread in history as a new thread was already up after just two comments.

Now pulled, the ghost thread argued that OGH had determined by pulling a strand of hair from atop and letting it fall on divining cards that Nick Clegg would easily survive the Labour decapitation strategy in Sheffield Hallam.

I smell a rat in this as a continuing OGH option !!

Innocent_Abroad

JackW said:

This thread was heading to be the shortest Herders thread in history as a new thread was already up after just two comments.

Now pulled, the ghost thread argued that OGH had determined by pulling a strand of hair from atop and letting it fall on divining cards that Nick Clegg would easily survive the Labour decapitation strategy in Sheffield Hallam.

I smell a rat in this as a continuing OGH option !!

I made one of those two comments, so the real question is: does the number of posts cited next to my avatar include that comment or not? I think we should be told...

JackW

Innocent_Abroad said:

JackW said:

This thread was heading to be the shortest Herders thread in history as a new thread was already up after just two comments.

Now pulled, the ghost thread argued that OGH had determined by pulling a strand of hair from atop and letting it fall on divining cards that Nick Clegg would easily survive the Labour decapitation strategy in Sheffield Hallam.

I smell a rat in this as a continuing OGH option !!

I made one of those two comments, so the real question is: does the number of posts cited next to my avatar include that comment or not? I think we should be told...

A crucial question to be sure.

We clearly require a full explanation from the PB MODERATORS backed up by a water tight legal determination.

And what of the effect of Scottish independence on the issue. Has Eck a plan B for your potentially lost post.

This issue has legs ....

SquareRoot

Antifrank, From what I can gather the Greens (In Brighton) are a shining example of why they should never be allowed near the levers of power, I don't think the Brighton and Hove electorate will be that stupid again. The ludicrous 20mph zones are a sign of not enough things to do. The electorate are not very happy. Everyone I meet who lives in the area spits blood about it.

CarlottaVance

JackW said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

JackW said:

This thread was heading to be the shortest Herders thread in history as a new thread was already up after just two comments.

Now pulled, the ghost thread argued that OGH had determined by pulling a strand of hair from atop and letting it fall on divining cards that Nick Clegg would easily survive the Labour decapitation strategy in Sheffield Hallam.

I smell a rat in this as a continuing OGH option !!

I made one of those two comments, so the real question is: does the number of posts cited next to my avatar include that comment or not? I think we should be told...

And what of the effect of Scottish independence on the issue. Has Eck a plan B for your potentially lost post.

This issue has legs ....

And what of OGH - not only a National Treasure, but clearly an Institution, so I expect (however mistakenly) the SNP will demand 8% of him too!

But which 8%?

I expect we won't be told....

On topic, Lib Dems fourth.....I thought the Greens generally prospered in economic good times when people feel they can "afford" to be "environmental"?

MikeSmithson

JohnLoony said:

Lib Dems will definitely be fourth. The residual core vote is reasonably solid and can't be reduced any further than it essentially already has. It might be as low as 10% or 9% but it won't go down to 7% or 6%. It might even be firmed up to 12% or 13% by Clegg's anti-Farage sabre-rattling. The Green Party, meanwhile, is fairly rubbish at this sort of thing and won't be able to get above 8%.

I agree with that.

The LDs party of In strategy is really a copy of UKIP's party of Out - an approach that has worked well for the purples. It is a national proposition tailored for a specific group of voters and the more publicity they get the more it is likely to succeed. Ironically the better that way UKIP appear to be doing the more likely it is that pro EU voters will go yellow.

MikeSmithson

Just to note that an early draft of another post was accidentally published. This will go up later

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

I agree with fernando (F1 will be hard to bet on, especially in Australia):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26276837

Both Lotus and Red Bull had gearbox problems on Friday. If I can't find a 'proper' bet then one in the back of my mind is Marussia for points (I'd want bloody long odds, though).

JackW

CarlottaVance said:

JackW said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

JackW said:

This thread was heading to be the shortest Herders thread in history as a new thread was already up after just two comments.

Now pulled, the ghost thread argued that OGH had determined by pulling a strand of hair from atop and letting it fall on divining cards that Nick Clegg would easily survive the Labour decapitation strategy in Sheffield Hallam.

I smell a rat in this as a continuing OGH option !!

I made one of those two comments, so the real question is: does the number of posts cited next to my avatar include that comment or not? I think we should be told...

And what of the effect of Scottish independence on the issue. Has Eck a plan B for your potentially lost post.

This issue has legs ....

And what of OGH - not only a National Treasure, but clearly an Institution, so I expect (however mistakenly) the SNP will demand 8% of him too!

But which 8%?

I expect we won't be told....

This has the makings of a full blow constitutional crisis.

What part of OGH will the SNP demand as their 8% pound of flesh ?? .... Clearly like North Sea oil there are some parts of Mike that are showing a diminishing return !!

Will the SNP be happy with Pork, uniondivvie, malcolmg and Stuart ?? or will they demand parts of Fitalass, Easterross and Max from Edinburgh ?

Will their avarice pull them in the direction of exiled posts from JackW and an attempted seizure of my ARSE

And who will debate Salmond on this issue ?!?

All caused by a Mary Celeste thread !!

AveryLP

So what are George and Danny up to?

Part I: Introduction

Yesterday I mentioned that I had been looking at the government's revised spending plans for 2013-14. The revisions are contained in a document named "Central Government Supply Estimates 2013-14: Supplementary Estimates and New Estimates", which is downloadable from the Treasury's website. (Warning: it is over 750 pages long!).

The majority of government expenditure needs to be approved by vote in Parliament. Each year, shortly after the budget, the Treasury will submit an expenditure plan for the current fiscal year detailing the items of expenditure which needs to be 'voted'. These submissions are known as 'Supply Estimates'.

During the course of the year, spending plans change and any overspend or underspend on pre-approved expenditure will need to authorised by further votes. This can happen at any time of the year but it is customary for all non-emergency revisions to be bundled together and authorised towards the end of the year in February. Revisions are submitted to Parliament as 'Supplementary Estimates' and 'New Estimates'. Supplementary estimates vary spending by established departments and accounting units. New Estimates cover new programmes established during the year. This year's New Estimates, for example, seek spending authorisation for the new 'Markets and Competition Authority' (under BIS) and the new 'National Crime Agency' (under the Home Office).

Mostly, the bulk of revisions will relate to existing departments. This year there are fifty separate entities submitting estimates.

In addition, a small group of independent organisations submit estimates independently of the Treasury (Electoral Commission, IPSA, National Audit Office, HoC Administration, Boundaries Commission).

Expenditure is split into two main categories. The first is 'Departmental Expenditure Limits' (DEL) which were set in a four year plan in 2010 and cover fixed departmental costs'. The second is 'Annually Managed Expenditure' (AME) which is determined during the yearly budget process and which is aimed mostly at costs which vary in line with the economic cycle. Both DEL and AME categories are further split into 'Resources' (consumption expenditure) and 'Capital' (investments).

Expenditure by the devolved administrations is not split by the Treasury into DEL and AME or Resources and Capital. It is submitted as an aggregate estimate under the 'Non-budget Expenditure' category.

Not all expenditure needs to be authorised by parliamentary vote: a notable example is expenditure funded by National Insurance revenuse. So the scope of the Supply Estimates is less than that of 'Total Managed Expenditure' (TME) which is stated, for example, in the Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses (PESA) document published by the Treasury each July. This year TME is planned to be £720 billion whereas 'voted estimates' total just under £550 billion.

[... to be continued]

AveryLP

So what are George and Danny up to?

Part II: Why the fuss?

Normally the Supplementary Estimates are unworthy of remark. The OBR assumed in their commentary on yesterday's Public Finances bulletin that the estimates would indicate an overall underspend:

A particular uncertainty [in predicting the year end fiscal outturn] is the degree to which central government departments will underspend against the plans for Departmental Expenditure Limits (DELs). Much depends on departments’ reductions in spending in their supplementary estimates, which form their final spending plans, and the extent to which they then underspend against those final plans. Departments supplementary estimates have now been published, and we will update our forecasts of departments underspends against their DELs in our March EFO forecast.

This was certainly the case last year as can be seen in the first Yellow Box:

================================================================
Impact of 'Supplementary Estimates'                     £billion
on Government Spending in 2012-13                               
                                   Revised     Changes    Budget
                                   Plans       %           Plans
----------------------------------------------------------------
Total Resource and Capital                                      
  - Departmental Expenditure Limits 312.3   -0.4%   -1.2   313.5
  - Annually Managed Expenditure    145.4   -3.5%   -5.2   150.6
                                    -----          -----   -----
Total Net Budget                    457.7   -1.4%   -6.4   464.1
	Total Non-Budget Expenditure       57.7    1.8%    1.0    56.6
                                    -----          -----   -----
Total Resource and Capital          515.4   -1.0%   -5.4   520.8
	Resource to cash adjustments      -59.4   -5.0%    3.1   -62.6
                                    -----          -----   -----
Total Net Cash requirement          455.9   -0.5%   -2.2   458.2
================================================================

Expenditure was revised down by a small percentage in all categories except 'Non-budget Expenditure'. Apart from blaming the damned celts for profligacy at the expense of the English, there is little to note here.

The 'Resource to cash adjustments' line is important. Not all expenditure requires cash funding (either from revenues or borrowing). Depreciation and provisions against future liabilities are typical examples of non cash flow expenses. Additionally, as almost all figures are 'net' (departmental income offsets expenditure) all categories can 'hide' some material transactions. Sales of bank shares and repayment of government loans for example, but [much] more of this later!

At this stage it is enough to note that of the £515 billion planned spending in 2012-13 only £455 billion required cash funding.

[... to be continued]

AveryLP

So what are George and Danny up to?

Part III: Go on, tell us!

Chote's assumption that the Supplementary Estimates will usually indicate an underspend did not apply in 2011-12. Here, a bad year for the economy, the government struggled to keep expenditure to the budget plans:

=============================================================
Impact of 'Supplementary Estimates'                   £billion
on Government Spending in 2011-12                             
                                   Revised   Changes    Budget
                                   Plans     %           Plans
--------------------------------------------------------------
Total Resource and Capital                                    
  - Departmental Expenditure Limit  318.2  2.5%    7.9   310.4
  - Annually Managed Expenditure    149.8  2.3%    3.3   146.5
                                    -----        -----   -----
Total Net Budget                    468.1  2.4%   11.2   456.9
  Total Non-Budget Expenditure       57.0  1.6%    0.9    56.0
                                    -----        -----   -----
Total Resource and Capital          525.0  2.4%   12.1   512.9
  Resource to cash adjustments      -67.7  7.6%   -4.8   -63.0
                                    -----        -----   -----
Total Net Cash requirement          457.3  1.6%    7.3   450.0
==============================================================

Again not much to note. Most categories up around 2.5% mitigated slightly by a larger proportion not involving an additional borrowing.

But we need to see the 'ordinary years' before looking at the revisions to this year. Time to break the tension then. Here we go:

==============================================================
Impact of 'Supplementary Estimates'                   £billion
on Government Spending in 2013-14                             
                                   Revised   Changes    Budget
                                   Plans     %           Plans
--------------------------------------------------------------
Total Resource and Capital                                    
  - Departmental Expenditure Limit  314.0  1.3%    4.1   309.9
  - Annually Managed Expenditure    172.5 20.9%   29.8   142.7
                                    -----        -----   -----
Total Net Budget                    486.6  7.5%   34.0   452.6
  Total Non-Budget Expenditure       59.2  2.1%    1.2    58.0
                                    -----        -----   -----
Total Resource and Capital          545.7  6.9%   35.2   510.6
  Resource to cash adjustments      -92.3 64.0%  -36.0   -56.3
                                    -----        -----   -----
Total Net Cash requirement          453.4 -0.2%   -0.8   454.3
===============================================================

[...to be continued]

JackW

MikeSmithson said:

Just to note that an early draft of another post was accidentally published. This will go up later

Will this be enough for the SNP ? .... What of "Innocent Abroad's" post. Is it to be left lingering in the awful nether regions of forgotten interweb worthlessness like Labour Party economic policies ??

Surely such a fate is not to be tolerated ??

foxinsoxuk

I have voted Green in some previous Euro elections in the nineties. It was not that I backed all their policies, but that I wanted all parties to start to address environmental issues. That has largely been the case. At best I was a soft Green rather than a fundi.

I dont see the Greens doing so well this time, and think the LD pro EU strategy is a sensible and distinctive one. These elections do seem to hinge on a 10% threshold so that 12% gets numbers of seats while 9% may well get one or even zero.

We should see the back of the 2 BNP MEPs though I was a little surprised to see how well the BNP vote held up in Wythenshaw.

ThomasNashe said:

The Greens did manage to get something like 20% in the 1987 Euro elections, showing they are as capable of engineering a surge as any other minor party. And perhaps renewed concern about climate change in the wake of the floods could be the issue they need for renewed prominence. But they do have to get on and re-energise themselves pretty quickly.

AveryLP

So what are George and Danny up to?

Part IV: So?

An alternative way of looking at this years changes is to split out Investment and Consumption or 'Resource' and 'Capital'. Here we go with more friendly headings:

===============================================================
Impact of 'Supplementary Estimates'                    £billion 
on Government Spending in 2013-14                               
                                   Revised    Changes    Budget 
                                   Plans      %           Plans 
--------------------------------------------------------------- 
UK Federal & England					                                  
 - Consumption ('Resource')          445.6  10.2%   41.2   404.4
 - Investment ('Capital')             41.0 -15.0%   -7.2    48.2
Scotland, Wales & N.I.					                                
 - Consumption & Investment           59.2   2.1%    1.2    58.0
                                     -----         -----   -----
Total Accrued Expenditure            545.7   6.9%   35.2   510.6
 - Accrued to Cash: Net Adjustments  -92.3  64.0%  -36.0   -56.3
                                     -----         -----   -----
Total Net Cash requirement           453.4  -0.2%   -0.8   454.3
================================================================

Now this is worthy of remark!

We can see that government consumption expenditure for 'this year' (ending March!) has been increased over the April estimates by £40 billion or over 10%: an amount around the size of the entire Defence annual resource spend.

And this increase in consumption has been part financed by a £7 billion reduction in capital expenditure. The rest of the overspend has been covered by a 64% (yes, 64%) increase amounting to £36 billion of 'net adjustments' to planned cash requirements.

So just what is hidden in that slug of £36 billion cash?

The bottom line of course balances. George can stand up in Parliament and claim that he will NOT have to borrow a pound more in order to achieve this £40 billion of additional government spending. Indeed the Net Cash Requirement for the government falls by near on a billion pounds.

What a mystery!

And the rest is silence ...

[to be continued ... but not 'til tonight].

Innocent_Abroad

JackW said:

MikeSmithson said:

Just to note that an early draft of another post was accidentally published. This will go up later

Will this be enough for the SNP ? .... What of "Innocent Abroad's" post. Is it to be left lingering in the awful nether regions of forgotten interweb worthlessness like Labour Party economic policies ??

Surely such a fate is not to be tolerated ??

I am not sure that I like having my posts compared to Labour's economic policy. On the other hand, Jack, if you mean that Labour's policy is pithy, relevant and elegant I may defer...

Easterross

Good morning troops. It looks as though George Lyon will need to return to farming in Scotland because few if any can see him returning to Brussels as an MEP. It will be interesting to see if the SNP picks up his seat. A signpost for the Indy Ref? who knows.

Just been YouGov's on behalf of the Coop. Rather ironic as the Coop supermarket in my nearest town Tain closed yesterday because hardly anyone shopped there. Far too expensive. That is another minor blow to the Labour Party's funding.

foxinsoxuk

@ALP

I look forward to your concise summary this evening!

It does bring to mind some of the discussions that I have been having with our financial people and commissioners. So few people can read a spreadsheet intelligently and tease out the devil in the detail. So we see a long discussion over whether to have some new signs up in the dept and where, while a £600 000 project goes through on the nod.

AveryLP

The yellow box in Part I of my posts appears mangled and it is too late to edit.

This should work:

================================================================
Impact of 'Supplementary Estimates'                     £billion
on Government Spending in 2012-13                               
                                   Revised     Changes    Budget
                                   Plans       %           Plans
----------------------------------------------------------------
Total Resource and Capital                                      
  - Departmental Expenditure Limits 312.3   -0.4%   -1.2   313.5
  - Annually Managed Expenditure    145.4   -3.5%   -5.2   150.6
                                    -----          -----   -----
Total Net Budget                    457.7   -1.4%   -6.4   464.1
  Total Non-Budget Expenditure       57.7    1.8%    1.0    56.6
                                    -----          -----   -----
Total Resource and Capital          515.4   -1.0%   -5.4   520.8
  Resource to cash adjustments      -59.4   -5.0%    3.1   -62.6
                                    -----          -----   -----
Total Net Cash requirement          455.9   -0.5%   -2.2   458.2

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, if you're about, did you know Karen Gillan's in Guardians of the Galaxy?

JackW

Innocent_Abroad said:

JackW said:

MikeSmithson said:

Just to note that an early draft of another post was accidentally published. This will go up later

Will this be enough for the SNP ? .... What of "Innocent Abroad's" post. Is it to be left lingering in the awful nether regions of forgotten interweb worthlessness like Labour Party economic policies ??

Surely such a fate is not to be tolerated ??

I am not sure that I like having my posts compared to Labour's economic policy. On the other hand, Jack, if you mean that Labour's policy is pithy, relevant and elegant I may defer...

Well there we have it, what worse fate could there have been but to be compared to Labour economic policy? I'm not surprised you are mortified but of course it's only in the context of your post innocently lingering there with it.

A truly sad fate !!

...........................................................................

BTW , not sure if this has been noted on PB but the BBC has announced that David Dimbleby will get a last outing as lead presenter of their general election coverage next year. Huw Edwardes will replace him :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-26270264

SquareRoot

Easterross said:

Good morning troops. It looks as though George Lyon will need to return to farming in Scotland because few if any can see him returning to Brussels as an MEP. It will be interesting to see if the SNP picks up his seat. A signpost for the Indy Ref? who knows.

Just been YouGov's on behalf of the Coop. Rather ironic as the Coop supermarket in my nearest town Tain closed yesterday because hardly anyone shopped there. Far too expensive. That is another minor blow to the Labour Party's funding.

So was I and you have to be desperate to shop at the Co-op. its fiercely expensive, I would never buy anything in there unless I was desperate. In fact you have to be desperate to shop at any of the major chains, I have come to the conclusion that for service with a smile and lower prices, you cannot beat ASDA.

How much does the co-op give to Labour?> Can it afford to give anything.?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. W, Edwards is boring as hell. Sophie Raworth would be more engaging, Andrew Neil would be even better informed. Neil as anchor and Raworth also on the show would be miles better.

malcolmg

See reality on Barroso lies are starting to leak..................

Speculation is growing in Europe over Prime Minister David Cameron’s rumoured backing of European Commission President José Manuel Barroso should he make a bid to become the next head of Nato.

For months there has been media speculation that Mr Barroso is keen to be the next general secretary of Nato after Anders Fogh Rasmussen relinquishes the post in September this year.

Now, Mr Cameron is rumoured to have pledged backing for Mr Barroso, a move which could give any bid the current EC president makes for the role significantly more weight.

Speculation further increased after Mr Barroso appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show on Sunday and claimed Scotland would find it "extremely difficult, if not impossible" to find the support of fellow members of the EU to maintain membership in the event of a Yes vote in the independence referendum.

MikeSmithson

JackW said:

MikeSmithson said:

Just to note that an early draft of another post was accidentally published. This will go up later

Will this be enough for the SNP ? .... What of "Innocent Abroad's" post. Is it to be left lingering in the awful nether regions of forgotten interweb worthlessness like Labour Party economic policies ??

Surely such a fate is not to be tolerated ??

Jack, Can I give you my personal assurance that this post will go up later with your comment there UNLESS, of course, it doesn't.

Stuart_Dickson

This must be in the running for the daftest Project Fear story yet. And it faces some strong competition.

The latest threat to Scottish independence? Eurovision!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2565259/The-latest-threat-Scottish-independence-Eurovision-Scotland-warned-not-guaranteed-place-replaces-BBC-broadcaster.html

Morris_Dancer

F1: Button jealous of Mercedes' tighter rear end grip:
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/24180/9177321/jenson-button-optimistic-about-mclarens-prospects-but-suspects-mercedes-are-ahead

Easterross

SquareRoot said:

Easterross said:

Good morning troops. It looks as though George Lyon will need to return to farming in Scotland because few if any can see him returning to Brussels as an MEP. It will be interesting to see if the SNP picks up his seat. A signpost for the Indy Ref? who knows.

Just been YouGov's on behalf of the Coop. Rather ironic as the Coop supermarket in my nearest town Tain closed yesterday because hardly anyone shopped there. Far too expensive. That is another minor blow to the Labour Party's funding.

So was I and you have to be desperate to shop at the Co-op. its fiercely expensive, I would never buy anything in there unless I was desperate. In fact you have to be desperate to shop at any of the major chains, I have come to the conclusion that for service with a smile and lower prices, you cannot beat ASDA.

How much does the co-op give to Labour?> Can it afford to give anything.?

In Scotland quite a number of Labour MPs still stand as Labour and Coop MPs. Hasn't the Coop bank been keeping Labour afloat providing its overdraft etc for some years? From memory it was also supporting a well known Scottish football team in Glasgow which wears green and white hoops and is closely associated with the Labour party

foxinsoxuk

Huw Edwards! No way to manage an election night all nighter with that sedative.

Andrew Neil please!

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, Edwards is boring as hell. Sophie Raworth would be more engaging, Andrew Neil would be even better informed. Neil as anchor and Raworth also on the show would be miles better.

david_herdson

JohnLoony said:

Lib Dems will definitely be fourth. The residual core vote is reasonably solid and can't be reduced any further than it essentially already has. It might be as low as 10% or 9% but it won't go down to 7% or 6%. It might even be firmed up to 12% or 13% by Clegg's anti-Farage sabre-rattling. The Green Party, meanwhile, is fairly rubbish at this sort of thing and won't be able to get above 8%.

Maybe, but worth noting the starting points: in 2009, the Lib Dems polled 13.8% to the Greens' 8.1%, so they were quite close even before the post-2010 fall in the Lib Dems' Westminster VI. Even if the Lib Dems only lost a third of their 2009 vote, with only a third of that loss going to the Greens, it would still drop the Lib Dems to fifth.

RobD

malcolmg said:

See reality on Barroso lies are starting to leak..................

Speculation is growing in Europe over Prime Minister David Cameron’s rumoured backing of European Commission President José Manuel Barroso should he make a bid to become the next head of Nato.

For months there has been media speculation that Mr Barroso is keen to be the next general secretary of Nato after Anders Fogh Rasmussen relinquishes the post in September this year.

Now, Mr Cameron is rumoured to have pledged backing for Mr Barroso, a move which could give any bid the current EC president makes for the role significantly more weight.

Speculation further increased after Mr Barroso appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show on Sunday and claimed Scotland would find it "extremely difficult, if not impossible" to find the support of fellow members of the EU to maintain membership in the event of a Yes vote in the independence referendum.

Perhaps I am dumb, but why would his intervention regarding the EU cause speculation regarding the NATO job to increase?

malcolmg

RBS getting ready for independence..................

ROYAL Bank of Scotland will next week unveil a major shake-up that will radically reduce its size and pull the plug on many overseas markets to focus on UK high street and business lending – with fears that thousands of jobs will be lost.

malcolmg

SquareRoot said:

Easterross said:

Good morning troops. It looks as though George Lyon will need to return to farming in Scotland because few if any can see him returning to Brussels as an MEP. It will be interesting to see if the SNP picks up his seat. A signpost for the Indy Ref? who knows.

Just been YouGov's on behalf of the Coop. Rather ironic as the Coop supermarket in my nearest town Tain closed yesterday because hardly anyone shopped there. Far too expensive. That is another minor blow to the Labour Party's funding.

So was I and you have to be desperate to shop at the Co-op. its fiercely expensive, I would never buy anything in there unless I was desperate. In fact you have to be desperate to shop at any of the major chains, I have come to the conclusion that for service with a smile and lower prices, you cannot beat ASDA.

How much does the co-op give to Labour?> Can it afford to give anything.?

ASDA is ok for basics but have no organic fruit or vegetables.

Y0kel

Ukraine

El Presidente appears to have gone into hiding. One of the reasons parliament has carried so many votes despite the apparent majority for the Party of Regions was that some of his deputies didn't turn up, others just defected and voted with the opposition.

Collapse? Looks like it but theres a lot of manpower on the streets, some of it military conscripts who have joined the opposition and opposition leaders will have to try to keep it in check.

The symbolism of events goes as far as old statues etc of Lenin being taken down all over the country but this is very tricky.

malcolmg

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

See reality on Barroso lies are starting to leak..................

Speculation is growing in Europe over Prime Minister David Cameron’s rumoured backing of European Commission President José Manuel Barroso should he make a bid to become the next head of Nato.

For months there has been media speculation that Mr Barroso is keen to be the next general secretary of Nato after Anders Fogh Rasmussen relinquishes the post in September this year.

Now, Mr Cameron is rumoured to have pledged backing for Mr Barroso, a move which could give any bid the current EC president makes for the role significantly more weight.

Speculation further increased after Mr Barroso appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show on Sunday and claimed Scotland would find it "extremely difficult, if not impossible" to find the support of fellow members of the EU to maintain membership in the event of a Yes vote in the independence referendum.

Perhaps I am dumb, but why would his intervention regarding the EU cause speculation regarding the NATO job to increase?

Crooks doing each other favours, Barroso spouts rubbish on Scotland , his pal Dave puts him up for troughing at NATO.

Pulpstar

Have to say a great performance by the Great BRITISH curling team in Sochi.

Innocent_Abroad

foxinsoxuk said:

Huw Edwards! No way to manage an election night all nighter with that sedative.

Andrew Neil please!

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, Edwards is boring as hell. Sophie Raworth would be more engaging, Andrew Neil would be even better informed. Neil as anchor and Raworth also on the show would be miles better.

Surely it should be Paul Staines with a Walther PPK and a Queen's Pardon in his pocket?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Y0kel, cheers for that update. D'you reckon Yanukovic[sp] could end up fleeing?

AveryLP

malcolmg said:

RBS getting ready for independence..................

ROYAL Bank of Scotland will next week unveil a major shake-up that will radically reduce its size and pull the plug on many overseas markets to focus on UK high street and business lending – with fears that thousands of jobs will be lost.

My guess is that the RBoS wholesale and investment banking operations will be sold rather than closed. There may be a small net job loss but most employees will transfer to the buyer.

malcolmg

Pulpstar said:

Have to say a great performance by the Great BRITISH curling team in Sochi.

Hopefully they will go one better for Scotland in 4 years time

malcolmg

AveryLP said:

malcolmg said:

RBS getting ready for independence..................

ROYAL Bank of Scotland will next week unveil a major shake-up that will radically reduce its size and pull the plug on many overseas markets to focus on UK high street and business lending – with fears that thousands of jobs will be lost.

My guess is that the RBoS wholesale and investment banking operations will be sold rather than closed. There may be a small net job loss but most employees will transfer to the buyer.

Yes and the big changes will be overseas. RBS will be just perfect size as Scotland's national bank from next September. Save all those unionists worrying about it being too big for us. maybe the rumours are true and Dave and Squeaky really do want an independent Scotland, they do seem to be striving in that direction.

volcanopete

There are some favourable currents for the Green party.Fracking is maybe the biggest one,though subject to very local protest at the moment.Looking at the map,much of our green and pleasant land,our Jerusalem,is about to be fracked.Maybe the floods too has renewed a sense that climate change is real and needs urgent attention.
So,DH could be right.In any case,it's worth having a look at the next LibDem leader market.
Mike has guided us toward Lamb but I wonder if their party members want another OrangeBooker so it is not surprising Farron is 7-4 fav with PP..

edmundintokyo

Any suggestions who Cameron will favour for EU Commission President? The current situation seems to be that his EU group doesn't want to nominate anybody, as this would undermine their position that the EU is undemocratic, and therefore its voters shouldn't be allowed to vote for things.

AveryLP

Y0kel said:

Ukraine

El Presidente appears to have gone into hiding. One of the reasons parliament has carried so many votes despite the apparent majority for the Party of Regions was that some of his deputies didn't turn up, others just defected and voted with the opposition.

Collapse? Looks like it but theres a lot of manpower on the streets, some of it military conscripts who have joined the opposition and opposition leaders will have to try to keep it in check.

The symbolism of events goes as far as old statues etc of Lenin being taken down all over the country but this is very tricky.

There are plenty of Lenin statues remaining yet to be toppled, Y0Kel. I was in Moscow when the most famous of the topplings of occurred in the square outside the main facade of the Lyubyanka (KGB) HQ: although on this occasion it was the statue of Dzerzhinsky brought down not Vi'len.

There is also a retirement home for Lenin Statues in Moscow. I am not sure if this is it - I originally saw a photo in the Moscow Times but it gives the flavour of being a statue out of favour.

http://bit.ly/1gpZXnp

Ukraine needs to reestablish security before the Sochi Olympics ceremony ends. I think Putin may have spent more time in the last few days watching the goings on in Independence Square than he has the ice hockey tournament in Sochi.

And that may not bode well for the Ukrainians.

AlastairMeeks

In case it hasn't been noticed, George Osborne gave an interview to the Standard yesterday. It was quite revealing:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/the-political-interview-george-osborne-on-heathrow-haircuts-and-family-life-in-downing-street-9144042.html

MarqueeMark

Many thanks to Y0kel for his insights.

Charles

foxinsoxuk said:

@ALP

I look forward to your concise summary this evening!

It does bring to mind some of the discussions that I have been having with our financial people and commissioners. So few people can read a spreadsheet intelligently and tease out the devil in the detail. So we see a long discussion over whether to have some new signs up in the dept and where, while a £600 000 project goes through on the nod.

Don't blame your colleagues too much. It's a well known issue - even my Board of Trustees, which has some very experienced finance people on it as you might expect falls into this trap occasionally. The Coalition of Efficiency has done some very interesting work on the topic though.

Charles

Stuart_Dickson said:

This must be in the running for the daftest Project Fear story yet. And it faces some strong competition.

The latest threat to Scottish independence? Eurovision!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2565259/The-latest-threat-Scottish-independence-Eurovision-Scotland-warned-not-guaranteed-place-replaces-BBC-broadcaster.html

Isn't exile fRom Eurovision a compelling reams,on to vote YES?

edmundintokyo

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

See reality on Barroso lies are starting to leak..................

Speculation is growing in Europe over Prime Minister David Cameron’s rumoured backing of European Commission President José Manuel Barroso should he make a bid to become the next head of Nato.

For months there has been media speculation that Mr Barroso is keen to be the next general secretary of Nato after Anders Fogh Rasmussen relinquishes the post in September this year.

Now, Mr Cameron is rumoured to have pledged backing for Mr Barroso, a move which could give any bid the current EC president makes for the role significantly more weight.

Speculation further increased after Mr Barroso appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show on Sunday and claimed Scotland would find it "extremely difficult, if not impossible" to find the support of fellow members of the EU to maintain membership in the event of a Yes vote in the independence referendum.

Perhaps I am dumb, but why would his intervention regarding the EU cause speculation regarding the NATO job to increase?

The thought would be that going on British telly to say something unhelpful to the "yes" side was probably done as a favour to David Cameron, which implies that Barroso is trying to get something that would benefit from a favour being returned by David Cameron.

AveryLP

malcolmg said:

AveryLP said:

malcolmg said:

RBS getting ready for independence..................

ROYAL Bank of Scotland will next week unveil a major shake-up that will radically reduce its size and pull the plug on many overseas markets to focus on UK high street and business lending – with fears that thousands of jobs will be lost.

My guess is that the RBoS wholesale and investment banking operations will be sold rather than closed. There may be a small net job loss but most employees will transfer to the buyer.

Yes and the big changes will be overseas. RBS will be just perfect size as Scotland's national bank from next September. Save all those unionists worrying about it being too big for us. maybe the rumours are true and Dave and Squeaky really do want an independent Scotland, they do seem to be striving in that direction.

That's a rather unfair demotion of Airdrie Savings Bank, Malc!

JackW

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, Edwards is boring as hell. Sophie Raworth would be more engaging, Andrew Neil would be even better informed. Neil as anchor and Raworth also on the show would be miles better.

Edwards will be fine. Boring is ok if it is also matched with accuracy. Andrew Neil needs to be saved for forensic examination and not just as a front man linking reports.

Carnyx

edmundintokyo said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

See reality on Barroso lies are starting to leak..................

Speculation is growing in Europe over Prime Minister David Cameron’s rumoured backing of European Commission President José Manuel Barroso should he make a bid to become the next head of Nato.

For months there has been media speculation that Mr Barroso is keen to be the next general secretary of Nato after Anders Fogh Rasmussen relinquishes the post in September this year.

Now, Mr Cameron is rumoured to have pledged backing for Mr Barroso, a move which could give any bid the current EC president makes for the role significantly more weight.

Speculation further increased after Mr Barroso appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show on Sunday and claimed Scotland would find it "extremely difficult, if not impossible" to find the support of fellow members of the EU to maintain membership in the event of a Yes vote in the independence referendum.

Perhaps I am dumb, but why would his intervention regarding the EU cause speculation regarding the NATO job to increase?

The thought would be that going on British telly to say something unhelpful to the "yes" side was probably done as a favour to David Cameron, which implies that Barroso is trying to get something that would benefit from a favour being returned by David Cameron.

Quite, especially as comparing Scotland to Kosovo is notably tendentious when one sees how quick the EU are to let other people in (and how slow to let Greenland out when it separated from Denmark). See here, and the ref therein to Gary Gibbons' blog (for those who think only the DT is an unbiased source) (and as one commenter said, a bit worrying he is supposedly seeking the NATO job if he can't tell the difference between Scotland and Kosovo ...).

http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/8770-rumours-of-cameron-backing-for-barroso-nato-bid-sweeps-brussels

JackW

MikeSmithson said:

JackW said:

MikeSmithson said:

Just to note that an early draft of another post was accidentally published. This will go up later

Will this be enough for the SNP ? .... What of "Innocent Abroad's" post. Is it to be left lingering in the awful nether regions of forgotten interweb worthlessness like Labour Party economic policies ??

Surely such a fate is not to be tolerated ??

Jack, Can I give you my personal assurance that this post will go up later with your comment there UNLESS, of course, it doesn't.

May I thank you most profusely Mike for that clearest indication of LibDimmery at its most eloquent and decisive.

You take the art of political obfuscation to a level not seen since the last days of the Lib/Lab pact in 1979.

CarlottaVance

Carnyx said:

edmundintokyo said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

See reality on Barroso lies are starting to leak..................

Speculation is growing in Europe over Prime Minister David Cameron’s rumoured backing of European Commission President José Manuel Barroso should he make a bid to become the next head of Nato.

For months there has been media speculation that Mr Barroso is keen to be the next general secretary of Nato after Anders Fogh Rasmussen relinquishes the post in September this year.

Now, Mr Cameron is rumoured to have pledged backing for Mr Barroso, a move which could give any bid the current EC president makes for the role significantly more weight.

Speculation further increased after Mr Barroso appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show on Sunday and claimed Scotland would find it "extremely difficult, if not impossible" to find the support of fellow members of the EU to maintain membership in the event of a Yes vote in the independence referendum.

Perhaps I am dumb, but why would his intervention regarding the EU cause speculation regarding the NATO job to increase?

The thought would be that going on British telly to say something unhelpful to the "yes" side was probably done as a favour to David Cameron, which implies that Barroso is trying to get something that would benefit from a favour being returned by David Cameron.

Quite, especially as comparing Scotland to Kosovo is notably tendentious when one sees how quick the EU are to let other people in (and how slow to let Greenland out when it separated from Denmark). See here, and the ref therein to Gary Gibbons' blog (for those who think only the DT is an unbiased source) (and as one commenter said, a bit worrying he is supposedly seeking the NATO job if he can't tell the difference between Scotland and Kosovo ...).

http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/8770-rumours-of-cameron-backing-for-barroso-nato-bid-sweeps-brussels

So why did Van Rumpoy say the same as Barroso? Is he up for the NATO job too?

It's not like either contradicted the consistent official EU position......

Scottish National Paranoia."...

JackW

@Morris_Dancer wrote :

"F1: Button jealous of Mercedes' tighter rear end grip"

There are many who think the same about my ARSE.

CarlottaVance

Stuart_Dickson said:

This must be in the running for the daftest Project Fear story yet. And it faces some strong competition.

The latest threat to Scottish independence? Eurovision!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2565259/The-latest-threat-Scottish-independence-Eurovision-Scotland-warned-not-guaranteed-place-replaces-BBC-broadcaster.html

That would motivate me to vote Yes!

AveryLP

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Y0kel, cheers for that update. D'you reckon Yanukovic[sp] could end up fleeing?

I will leave Y0kel to answer that but Yanukovych is an interesting character in the Idi Amin tradition of world leaders.

Jailed twice for robbery, assault and rape in his youth (but curiously without appealing his sentence) he arranged later in life for his criminal records to be lost by the authorities. Hence the fact that the opposition refers to him as "that convict".

He is a typical CPSU type apparatchik moving quickly up the ranks of the party by 'concretna' action', i.e. bullying opponents into compliance with the party's diktats.

He is not even Ukrainian and hardly speaks the language, He was born to a Russian Mother and his father was Belarussian/Polish (that part of the world suffered great population shifts post WWII).

He has little formal education and, like IDS, is famous for claiming fantasy degrees from non-existent universities.

His powerbase has been the Russian speaking and populated Donetsk region in the North West of Ukraine. This is tough coal mining and heavy industrial country and vital to Ukraine's economic future as well as the recruiting ground for the Russian dominated security forces.

Yanukovych will only go when abandoned by Putin. The Kiev Duma can vote how it wishes but it won't prevail over Russian interests. That said I can see Moscow offering Yanukovych a comfortable retirement dacha pretty quickly. I guess the only reason he is not ensconced there already is that Putin needs the right successor in place.

This could end in a very ugly way for Yanukovych, his family and oligarchic henchmen. Think Ceausescu and Romania. But more likely he will grab the Moscow lifeline when thrown.

His career as the Ukrainian President is over whatever happens.

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

AveryLP said:

malcolmg said:

RBS getting ready for independence..................

ROYAL Bank of Scotland will next week unveil a major shake-up that will radically reduce its size and pull the plug on many overseas markets to focus on UK high street and business lending – with fears that thousands of jobs will be lost.

My guess is that the RBoS wholesale and investment banking operations will be sold rather than closed. There may be a small net job loss but most employees will transfer to the buyer.

Yes and the big changes will be overseas. RBS will be just perfect size as Scotland's national bank from next September. Save all those unionists worrying about it being too big for us. maybe the rumours are true and Dave and Squeaky really do want an independent Scotland, they do seem to be striving in that direction.

Such a pity Goodwin went on that spending spree......."For Scotland.......Yours Alex"

No_Offence_Alan

CarlottaVance said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

This must be in the running for the daftest Project Fear story yet. And it faces some strong competition.

The latest threat to Scottish independence? Eurovision!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2565259/The-latest-threat-Scottish-independence-Eurovision-Scotland-warned-not-guaranteed-place-replaces-BBC-broadcaster.html

That would motivate me to vote Yes!

If Scotland was a separate entry, how long before the Balkan countries complain about rUK/Scotland always giving each other "douze points" ?

Carnyx

CarlottaVance said:

Carnyx said:

edmundintokyo said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

See reality on Barroso lies are starting to leak..................

Speculation is growing in Europe over Prime Minister David Cameron’s rumoured backing of European Commission President José Manuel Barroso should he make a bid to become the next head of Nato.

For months there has been media speculation that Mr Barroso is keen to be the next general secretary of Nato after Anders Fogh Rasmussen relinquishes the post in September this year.

Now, Mr Cameron is rumoured to have pledged backing for Mr Barroso, a move which could give any bid the current EC president makes for the role significantly more weight.

Speculation further increased after Mr Barroso appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show on Sunday and claimed Scotland would find it "extremely difficult, if not impossible" to find the support of fellow members of the EU to maintain membership in the event of a Yes vote in the independence referendum.

Perhaps I am dumb, but why would his intervention regarding the EU cause speculation regarding the NATO job to increase?

The thought would be that going on British telly to say something unhelpful to the "yes" side was probably done as a favour to David Cameron, which implies that Barroso is trying to get something that would benefit from a favour being returned by David Cameron.

Quite, especially as comparing Scotland to Kosovo is notably tendentious when one sees how quick the EU are to let other people in (and how slow to let Greenland out when it separated from Denmark). See here, and the ref therein to Gary Gibbons' blog (for those who think only the DT is an unbiased source) (and as one commenter said, a bit worrying he is supposedly seeking the NATO job if he can't tell the difference between Scotland and Kosovo ...).

http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/8770-rumours-of-cameron-backing-for-barroso-nato-bid-sweeps-brussels

So why did Van Rumpoy say the same as Barroso? Is he up for the NATO job too?

It's not like either contradicted the consistent official EU position......

Scottish National Paranoia."...

I was merely pointing out some current reportage on the matter. I didn't know Mr Gibbons was a member of the SNP, any more than I am. And we have yet to see what Mr va Rumpoy gets in the way of backscratching.

CarlottaVance

Economist (they'll rue the day) blog on currency options for Scotland and parallels with Ireland;

http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2014/02/economics-scottish-independence

malcolmg

AveryLP said:

malcolmg said:

AveryLP said:

malcolmg said:

RBS getting ready for independence..................

ROYAL Bank of Scotland will next week unveil a major shake-up that will radically reduce its size and pull the plug on many overseas markets to focus on UK high street and business lending – with fears that thousands of jobs will be lost.

My guess is that the RBoS wholesale and investment banking operations will be sold rather than closed. There may be a small net job loss but most employees will transfer to the buyer.

Yes and the big changes will be overseas. RBS will be just perfect size as Scotland's national bank from next September. Save all those unionists worrying about it being too big for us. maybe the rumours are true and Dave and Squeaky really do want an independent Scotland, they do seem to be striving in that direction.

That's a rather unfair demotion of Airdrie Savings Bank, Malc!

LOL,

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

Carnyx said:

edmundintokyo said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

See reality on Barroso lies are starting to leak..................

Speculation is growing in Europe over Prime Minister David Cameron’s rumoured backing of European Commission President José Manuel Barroso should he make a bid to become the next head of Nato.

For months there has been media speculation that Mr Barroso is keen to be the next general secretary of Nato after Anders Fogh Rasmussen relinquishes the post in September this year.

Now, Mr Cameron is rumoured to have pledged backing for Mr Barroso, a move which could give any bid the current EC president makes for the role significantly more weight.

Speculation further increased after Mr Barroso appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show on Sunday and claimed Scotland would find it "extremely difficult, if not impossible" to find the support of fellow members of the EU to maintain membership in the event of a Yes vote in the independence referendum.

Perhaps I am dumb, but why would his intervention regarding the EU cause speculation regarding the NATO job to increase?

The thought would be that going on British telly to say something unhelpful to the "yes" side was probably done as a favour to David Cameron, which implies that Barroso is trying to get something that would benefit from a favour being returned by David Cameron.

Quite, especially as comparing Scotland to Kosovo is notably tendentious when one sees how quick the EU are to let other people in (and how slow to let Greenland out when it separated from Denmark). See here, and the ref therein to Gary Gibbons' blog (for those who think only the DT is an unbiased source) (and as one commenter said, a bit worrying he is supposedly seeking the NATO job if he can't tell the difference between Scotland and Kosovo ...).

http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/8770-rumours-of-cameron-backing-for-barroso-nato-bid-sweeps-brussels

So why did Van Rumpoy say the same as Barroso? Is he up for the NATO job too?

It's not like either contradicted the consistent official EU position......

Scottish National Paranoia."...

He has his prejudices from home and him and Barroso are just two cheeks of the same arse. Would run their granny over for self advancement.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

AveryLP said:

malcolmg said:

RBS getting ready for independence..................

ROYAL Bank of Scotland will next week unveil a major shake-up that will radically reduce its size and pull the plug on many overseas markets to focus on UK high street and business lending – with fears that thousands of jobs will be lost.

My guess is that the RBoS wholesale and investment banking operations will be sold rather than closed. There may be a small net job loss but most employees will transfer to the buyer.

Yes and the big changes will be overseas. RBS will be just perfect size as Scotland's national bank from next September. Save all those unionists worrying about it being too big for us. maybe the rumours are true and Dave and Squeaky really do want an independent Scotland, they do seem to be striving in that direction.

Such a pity Goodwin went on that spending spree......."For Scotland.......Yours Alex"

He was feted in Westminster and knighted by them , UK regulators and CoE made a good job of due diligence and regulation of the takeovers.

malcolmg

No_Offence_Alan said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

This must be in the running for the daftest Project Fear story yet. And it faces some strong competition.

The latest threat to Scottish independence? Eurovision!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2565259/The-latest-threat-Scottish-independence-Eurovision-Scotland-warned-not-guaranteed-place-replaces-BBC-broadcaster.html

That would motivate me to vote Yes!

If Scotland was a separate entry, how long before the Balkan countries complain about rUK/Scotland always giving each other "douze points" ?

As if that would happen

malcolmg

Carnyx said:

CarlottaVance said:

Carnyx said:

edmundintokyo said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

See reality on Barroso lies are starting to leak..................

Speculation is growing in Europe over Prime Minister David Cameron’s rumoured backing of European Commission President José Manuel Barroso should he make a bid to become the next head of Nato.

For months there has been media speculation that Mr Barroso is keen to be the next general secretary of Nato after Anders Fogh Rasmussen relinquishes the post in September this year.

Now, Mr Cameron is rumoured to have pledged backing for Mr Barroso, a move which could give any bid the current EC president makes for the role significantly more weight.

Speculation further increased after Mr Barroso appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show on Sunday and claimed Scotland would find it "extremely difficult, if not impossible" to find the support of fellow members of the EU to maintain membership in the event of a Yes vote in the independence referendum.

Perhaps I am dumb, but why would his intervention regarding the EU cause speculation regarding the NATO job to increase?

The thought would be that going on British telly to say something unhelpful to the "yes" side was probably done as a favour to David Cameron, which implies that Barroso is trying to get something that would benefit from a favour being returned by David Cameron.

Quite, especially as comparing Scotland to Kosovo is notably tendentious when one sees how quick the EU are to let other people in (and how slow to let Greenland out when it separated from Denmark). See here, and the ref therein to Gary Gibbons' blog (for those who think only the DT is an unbiased source) (and as one commenter said, a bit worrying he is supposedly seeking the NATO job if he can't tell the difference between Scotland and Kosovo ...).

http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/8770-rumours-of-cameron-backing-for-barroso-nato-bid-sweeps-brussels

So why did Van Rumpoy say the same as Barroso? Is he up for the NATO job too?

It's not like either contradicted the consistent official EU position......

Scottish National Paranoia."...

I was merely pointing out some current reportage on the matter. I didn't know Mr Gibbons was a member of the SNP, any more than I am. And we have yet to see what Mr va Rumpoy gets in the way of backscratching.

Given there is no official EU position as it has never happened or been envisaged and so has no rules or regulations for anyone to give a position. More unionist lies.

Grandiose

In East of England, the votes last time were Con: 500,331; UKIP: 313,921; LD: 221,235; Lab: 167,833; GRN: 141,016.

Which distributed: Con, UKIP, Con, LD, Lab, Con, UKIP - so LD don't immediately look vulnerable.

At a guess, we could see: Con: 401,000; UKIP: 400,000; LD: 150,000; Lab: 250,000; GRN: 140,000.

Which would be: Con, UKIP, Lab, Con, UKIP, LD, GRN.

In which case the LDs could be displaced by both Con or UKIP doing a bit better - 420,000 or LDs a bit worse - or by one of them doing better and the Lib Dems falling behind the Greens.

JackW

Mike Smithson.

Is it possible to restore a revised system with just a "noted" button rather than posting such an acknowledgment ?

Often it may appear rude not to post a reply when a simple "Noted" would suffice.

Innocent_Abroad

No_Offence_Alan said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

This must be in the running for the daftest Project Fear story yet. And it faces some strong competition.

The latest threat to Scottish independence? Eurovision!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2565259/The-latest-threat-Scottish-independence-Eurovision-Scotland-warned-not-guaranteed-place-replaces-BBC-broadcaster.html

That would motivate me to vote Yes!

If Scotland was a separate entry, how long before the Balkan countries complain about rUK/Scotland always giving each other "douze points" ?

NOA, you clearly have no idea what the Scots think of us Sassenachs. More to the point, if Scotland secedes from the UK, and kids itself that it can afford more generous welfare provisions (including pensions) than rUK, how long will it be before local elections in Cumbria and Tyneside start being won by a "Let's Join Scotland" party?

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

Economist (they'll rue the day) blog on currency options for Scotland and parallels with Ireland;

http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2014/02/economics-scottish-independence

We know the Economist hates Scotland almost as much as you do , nobody in Scotland gives a hoot about their lies and spin. I note the readers did not seem to agree with the story, comments were for the truth.

Theuniondivvie

malcolmg said:

He was feted in Westminster and knighted by them , UK regulators and CoE made a good job of due diligence and regulation of the takeovers.

Indeed. Better together!

'Alistair Darling has criticised the "tawdry" treatment meted out to Fred Goodwin after the banker was humiliatingly stripped of his knighthood.
The former chancellor voiced distaste at the way Goodwin had been singled out by the government, while other senior figures escaped punishment.'

http://tinyurl.com/pyegtqt

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, if you're about, did you know Karen Gillan's in Guardians of the Galaxy?

Apparently with shaved head.

Yummmm.... ;-)

Theuniondivvie

Innocent_Abroad said:

NOA, you clearly have no idea what the Scots think of us Sassenachs. More to the point, if Scotland secedes from the UK, and kids itself that it can afford more generous welfare provisions (including pensions) than rUK, how long will it be before local elections in Cumbria and Tyneside start being won by a "Let's Join Scotland" party?

Er, I'm pretty sure he's intimately aware of what the Scots think of Sassenachs!

OldKingCole

CarlottaVance said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

This must be in the running for the daftest Project Fear story yet. And it faces some strong competition.

The latest threat to Scottish independence? Eurovision!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2565259/The-latest-threat-Scottish-independence-Eurovision-Scotland-warned-not-guaranteed-place-replaces-BBC-broadcaster.html

That would motivate me to vote Yes!

If that story is correct ...... and it IS the Daily Heil ....... and it's all part of an Establishment plot to "scare" Scots into voting NO I would suggest it's likely to backfire quite spectacularly!

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: Button jealous of Mercedes' tighter rear end grip:
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/24180/9177321/jenson-button-optimistic-about-mclarens-prospects-but-suspects-mercedes-are-ahead

In other F1 news, Williams have signed Brazilian Felipe Nasr as reserve driver. What's more, they've put him in the car for all of today's test.

Nasr's a driver I've been watching for some years. He won the competitive British F3 championship in 2011, thrashing second place Kevin Magnussen who now drives for McLaren. In GP2, he came 10th in 2012 and 4th in 2013. He also came 3rd in the 2012 Daytona 24 hour race.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felipe_Nasr

Williams now have a Felipe Massa and a Felipe Nasr. Commentators will hate it if they ever race at the same time ...

One to watch.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, almost reminds me of when we had three Sebastians (Vettel, Bourdais and Buemi).

Nasr sounds like he could get a race seat sometime.

AveryLP

Before someone corrects me, Donetsk is of couse in the North East of the Ukraine located between Kiev and Moscow, not North West as stated incorrectly in my earlier post.

RobD

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

This must be in the running for the daftest Project Fear story yet. And it faces some strong competition.

The latest threat to Scottish independence? Eurovision!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2565259/The-latest-threat-Scottish-independence-Eurovision-Scotland-warned-not-guaranteed-place-replaces-BBC-broadcaster.html

That would motivate me to vote Yes!

If that story is correct ...... and it IS the Daily Heil ....... and it's all part of an Establishment plot to "scare" Scots into voting NO I would suggest it's likely to backfire quite spectacularly!

As long as they sign up to the EBU I don't think there is a problem.

Charles

AveryLP said:

Before someone corrects me, Donetsk is of couse in the North East of the Ukraine located between Kiev and Moscow, not North West as stated incorrectly in my earlier post.

Indeed it is. But you were having fun, so I didn't want to discourage you ;-)

OldKingCole

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

This must be in the running for the daftest Project Fear story yet. And it faces some strong competition.

The latest threat to Scottish independence? Eurovision!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2565259/The-latest-threat-Scottish-independence-Eurovision-Scotland-warned-not-guaranteed-place-replaces-BBC-broadcaster.html

That would motivate me to vote Yes!

If that story is correct ...... and it IS the Daily Heil ....... and it's all part of an Establishment plot to "scare" Scots into voting NO I would suggest it's likely to backfire quite spectacularly!

As long as they sign up to the EBU I don't think there is a problem.

Indeed not. But threatening noises from London .........

AveryLP

Charles said:

AveryLP said:

Before someone corrects me, Donetsk is of couse in the North East of the Ukraine located between Kiev and Moscow, not North West as stated incorrectly in my earlier post.

Indeed it is. But you were having fun, so I didn't want to discourage you ;-)

What a shame tim isn't here, Charles!

HYUFD

It is not impossible that UKIP could beat the Tories as the main rightwing party in the Euros while the Greens overtake the LDs and cement their position as the new leftwing protest party, with Labour winning the poll on the centre-left it would mean the Tories and LDs are now seen as indivisible as part of the Coalition, both on the centre/centre right

malcolmg

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

This must be in the running for the daftest Project Fear story yet. And it faces some strong competition.

The latest threat to Scottish independence? Eurovision!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2565259/The-latest-threat-Scottish-independence-Eurovision-Scotland-warned-not-guaranteed-place-replaces-BBC-broadcaster.html

That would motivate me to vote Yes!

If that story is correct ...... and it IS the Daily Heil ....... and it's all part of an Establishment plot to "scare" Scots into voting NO I would suggest it's likely to backfire quite spectacularly!

As long as they sign up to the EBU I don't think there is a problem.

Indeed not. But threatening noises from London .........

Never a day passes without at least one, no matter how pathetic and ludicrous they are.

Y0kel

Sorry lads was out this morning.

The bigger question is where is Yulia Timoshenko? My understanding is that her release was part of the agreement. As yet though not a peep of an announcement.

Curious.

Y0kel

And just as I say that apparently a new Interior minister has been voted in. He's from Timoshenkos bloc who defected from Yanukovychs bloc a few years back.

Also wanted by Interpol...some guys eh.

Y0kel

There are some interesting crowds in Kharkiv, where the President is reportedly holed up.

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

It is not impossible that UKIP could beat the Tories as the main rightwing party in the Euros while the Greens overtake the LDs and cement their position as the new leftwing protest party, with Labour winning the poll on the centre-left it would mean the Tories and LDs are now seen as indivisible as part of the Coalition, both on the centre/centre right

What do Left and Right mean nowadays?
Just asking, as I don't see the Greens as obviously socialist/collectivist.
Or, come to that, revolutionary.

Quincel

'cement their position' as the new leftwing protest party? You mean following previous signs such as...beating the Lib Dems in no by-elections, making no notable council gains, making no obvious progress at all?

JohnLilburne

Y0kel said:

Sorry lads was out this morning.

The bigger question is where is Yulia Timoshenko? My understanding is that her release was part of the agreement. As yet though not a peep of an announcement.

Curious.

According to some "expert" on Sky, the offence she was found guilty of has now been decriminalised by the Verkhovna Rada, but NOT retrospectively so she doesn't automatically get let out. Yanukovych then buggered off without signing the required presidential decree.

JohnLilburne

AveryLP said:

Before someone corrects me, Donetsk is of couse in the North East of the Ukraine located between Kiev and Moscow, not North West as stated incorrectly in my earlier post.

It was also founded by a Welshman and originally named Hughesovka, or Yuzovka when transliterated into Russian.

Y0kel

It doesnt need his signature anymore.

RightChuck

YOkel - do you see any possibility of Russian security forces moving to protect the interests of Russians living in Eastern Ukraine?

OldKingCole

As I understand it there are a lot of ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine, as a consequence of the coal mines.

HYUFD

OldKingCole The Greens are anti capitalist though. But if you want 'socialist revolution' then I suppose RESPECT or TUSC are your best bets!