In a rare defence of Sunak, while I don't think EOTHO was a good idea (and didn't think so at the time) I do think he was perfectly justified, in his role as Chancellor, to push it for its economic benefits. It was up to SAGE,* the Health Secretary and - indeed - the PM to push against it if needed and (for the PM) veto it if required. The ministers, broadly, should be pushing the interests of the area under their care and the PM's job is to balance those competing priorities.
* had they been consulted, which appears not to have been the case
EOTHO had little impact if you look at the U.K. versus Europe at the time.
I see the PB Libz masturbated themselves into a feverish frenzy over Rwanda earlier this morning.
Unedifying but wholly predictable.
The ERG are frotting themselves into an early election
Sunak performed well at the inquiry this morning, it might also suit him to put some clear blue water with the ERG if he can still get his Rwanda bill through
Sunak, who has been unable to recall almost anything he said or did between 2020 and this morning, now quotes a line the Deputy Chief Medical Officer gave to a press conference three years ago.
Having spent TWENTY MINUTES insisting that no advice was sought on Eat Out to Help Out because it was a "purely fiscal measure", nothing to do with behaviour, Sunak makes this CLANGER admitting it was about behaviour.
Look at his little face as he tries to work out what to say.
Some Tory MPs claim colleagues threatened with an early election if they vote down the bill
But a number are sceptical No10 would follow through.
One told me they’re minded to vote against providing they can answer the question how this wouldn’t be curtains for Rishi Sunak
I wonder when Labour would ideally want an election. Next May perhaps. Not so soon that they're not caught on the hop without a full policy agenda and plans, not so long that the Tories can salt more tracts of earth ahead of losing.
In any case the government can't call realistically an election now for the same reason they can't call one this time next year: campaigning would go over the Christmas break and piss off all the MPs and activists.
They’re completely caught in a catch 22 situation now, at the mercy of both wings of the Tory Party.
Sunak either joins the loons and has an election on a hardline stop the boats stance, or pulls the policy and faces a VONC (which he would probably just about survive, but would essentially be a lamer duck than he already is and facing complete electoral meltdown).
Or maybe, you know, we have to factor in a resignation. He could just up and quit. We assume he wants to cling on, but what if it all has just become too much and like Mrs May he decides the only way out is the exit door?
New Dutch study on the economic impact of immigration demo-demo.nl/wp-content/upl… migration from other rich countries a net benefit, migration from poor countries a net drain
This should be required reading for our policy makers and officials in the Home Office. Nick Palmer noted one small part of the report ("table on page 90 and the subsequent discussion") to draw his own slanted conclusions. I've now skim-read it in full and would just note its concluding sentence:
The calculations in this report leave no doubt about what this means in the long term: increasing pressure on public finances and ultimately the end of the welfare state as we know it today. A choice for the current legal framework is therefore implicitly a choice against the welfare state.
In a sense, it doesn’t matter if policy makers read it or not. Immigration is now part of the culture war and you’re either open-borders-left or near-fascist right.
I see the PB Libz masturbated themselves into a feverish frenzy over Rwanda earlier this morning.
Unedifying but wholly predictable.
The ERG are frotting themselves into an early election
Sunak performed well at the inquiry this morning, it might also suit him to put some clear blue water with the ERG if he can still get his Rwanda bill through
I don’t think he can get it through. Happy to be proved wrong, but I suspect the numbers don’t stack up. Enough opposition from both wings of the party.
New Dutch study on the economic impact of immigration demo-demo.nl/wp-content/upl… migration from other rich countries a net benefit, migration from poor countries a net drain
This should be required reading for our policy makers and officials in the Home Office. Nick Palmer noted one small part of the report ("table on page 90 and the subsequent discussion") to draw his own slanted conclusions. I've now skim-read it in full and would just note its concluding sentence:
The calculations in this report leave no doubt about what this means in the long term: increasing pressure on public finances and ultimately the end of the welfare state as we know it today. A choice for the current legal framework is therefore implicitly a choice against the welfare state.
In a sense, it doesn’t matter if policy makers read it or not. Immigration is now part of the culture war and you’re either open-borders-left or near-fascist right.
One of Trump's refrains during in the 2016 campaign was, "If you don't have borders, you don't have a country." He had more of a point than his detractors would like to admit.
My mortgage has just gone to its new interest rate. Up £155 a month. Thank you, Tories!
~£260 for us at current rates but we've got two parts, smaller due Feb 2025 and larger due Dec 2025 so I'm hopeful that will drop a bit before then under the strong and steady leadership of Keir Starmer rather than chaos with Rishi Sunak Unless the fekker clings on so that we have to remortgage the first part under the chaos of a zombie government and a general election.
The cheap money couldn't last forever, but it is unfortunate that that cheap money, by making larger mortgages 'affordable'*, helped to push up property prices to the extent that more realistic rates are now making things painful.
* the affordability tests are interesting as we've always been offered Agreement in Principle amounts far in excess of what we consider we could afford to service
I think we got AIPed for about 300k on a joint income of 70k odd when I last remortgaged. Madness.
4.25x joint income is fairly modest
I was at 8x at one point although I wasn’t sleeping comfortably at night!
Sunak's problem as an Inquiry witness is he has an apparently excellent memory when it suits him, but cannot recall any relevant detail when it does not.
In a rare defence of Sunak, while I don't think EOTHO was a good idea (and didn't think so at the time) I do think he was perfectly justified, in his role as Chancellor, to push it for its economic benefits. It was up to SAGE,* the Health Secretary and - indeed - the PM to push against it if needed and (for the PM) veto it if required. The ministers, broadly, should be pushing the interests of the area under their care and the PM's job is to balance those competing priorities.
* had they been consulted, which appears not to have been the case
EOTHO had little impact if you look at the U.K. versus Europe at the time.
There are proper studies, but that graph (a comparison with 'Europe' with different climates for a largely seasonal variation doesn't seem that useful, but ignoring that) doesn't seem to support yours/the poster's case: a (detected) Covid infection rate that was ~50 lower in UK in Agust rises much more rapidly in UK in September and crosses over early October and by the end of October is ~33% higher
Now, that may well be just seasonal lag due to the countries included, but it's not good evidence of no effect from just eyeballing it.
Most studies give it a modest(ish) effect on infections, but an effect nonetheless.
New Dutch study on the economic impact of immigration demo-demo.nl/wp-content/upl… migration from other rich countries a net benefit, migration from poor countries a net drain
This should be required reading for our policy makers and officials in the Home Office. Nick Palmer noted one small part of the report ("table on page 90 and the subsequent discussion") to draw his own slanted conclusions. I've now skim-read it in full and would just note its concluding sentence:
The calculations in this report leave no doubt about what this means in the long term: increasing pressure on public finances and ultimately the end of the welfare state as we know it today. A choice for the current legal framework is therefore implicitly a choice against the welfare state.
In a sense, it doesn’t matter if policy makers read it or not. Immigration is now part of the culture war and you’re either open-borders-left or near-fascist right.
One of Trump's refrains during in the 2016 campaign was, "If you don't have borders, you don't have a country." He had more of a point than his detractors would like to admit.
Trump is a rapey wannabe dictator. Why you continue to advocate him is beyond me.
There are a surprising amount of hard-righters on here these days, mind you.
Sunak's problem as an Inquiry witness is he has an apparently excellent memory when it suits him, but cannot recall any relevant detail when it does not.
New Dutch study on the economic impact of immigration demo-demo.nl/wp-content/upl… migration from other rich countries a net benefit, migration from poor countries a net drain
This should be required reading for our policy makers and officials in the Home Office. Nick Palmer noted one small part of the report ("table on page 90 and the subsequent discussion") to draw his own slanted conclusions. I've now skim-read it in full and would just note its concluding sentence:
The calculations in this report leave no doubt about what this means in the long term: increasing pressure on public finances and ultimately the end of the welfare state as we know it today. A choice for the current legal framework is therefore implicitly a choice against the welfare state.
In a sense, it doesn’t matter if policy makers read it or not. Immigration is now part of the culture war and you’re either open-borders-left or near-fascist right.
One of Trump's refrains during in the 2016 campaign was, "If you don't have borders, you don't have a country." He had more of a point than his detractors would like to admit.
He didn't have that much of a point, in that the US definitely has borders and definitely is a country.
The point he was making was that, if you don't implement his extreme form of border security (at enormous expense) you don't have a country. Which was simply untrue - whether or not you think his border policy was right.
With "respect" to the "missing" WhatsApp messages of disgraced Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and failing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, situation is VERY similar to that in Seattle.
Where our former (also failed) Mayor Jenny Durkin and her (ditto) Police Chief Carmen Best oh-so conveniently "lost" THEIR text messages pertaining to official business. After they demonstrated their gross incompetence in "handling" the civil unrest in Seattle following the murder of George Floyd.
IMHO the only sensible, serious response to such brazen misconduct by top public officials, are MASSIVE sanctions up to and including jail time.
My mortgage has just gone to its new interest rate. Up £155 a month. Thank you, Tories!
~£260 for us at current rates but we've got two parts, smaller due Feb 2025 and larger due Dec 2025 so I'm hopeful that will drop a bit before then under the strong and steady leadership of Keir Starmer rather than chaos with Rishi Sunak Unless the fekker clings on so that we have to remortgage the first part under the chaos of a zombie government and a general election.
The cheap money couldn't last forever, but it is unfortunate that that cheap money, by making larger mortgages 'affordable'*, helped to push up property prices to the extent that more realistic rates are now making things painful.
* the affordability tests are interesting as we've always been offered Agreement in Principle amounts far in excess of what we consider we could afford to service
I think we got AIPed for about 300k on a joint income of 70k odd when I last remortgaged. Madness.
4.25x joint income is fairly modest
I was at 8x at one point although I wasn’t sleeping comfortably at night!
Aye but at what interest rate? At 5%, I’d say 3x is kind of the outer limit of comfort.
Sunak's problem as an Inquiry witness is he has an apparently excellent memory when it suits him, but cannot recall any relevant detail when it does not.
Ah, Sturgeon Syndrome.
The fish rots from the head first. The bigger the fish, the worse the smell.
With "respect" to the "missing" WhatsApp messages of disgraced Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and failing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, situation is VERY similar to that in Seattle.
Where our former (also failed) Mayor Jenny Durkin and her (ditto) Police Chief Carmen Best oh-so conveniently "lost" THEIR text messages pertaining to official business. After they demonstrated their gross incompetence in "handling" the civil unrest in Seattle following the murder of George Floyd.
IMHO the only sensible, serious response to such brazen misconduct by top public officials, are MASSIVE sanctions up to and including jail time.
Either there should be proper, official archiving and curating functions or there should not. As things are, it is scandalous that politicians use private email servers (for this reason) but ok for them to use private messaging services. It is an absurd inconsistency that needs to be addressed.
Not a new point, but surely one of the key findings to this inquiry is that government by WhatsApp is incompatible with the kind of democratic standard we’d should aspire to.
It beggars belief that the Civil Service allowed this.
Sat in a meeting this morning. People from various parts of the UK saying they are done with rail travel. Endless repeated major delays and cancellations mean they just aren't reliable enough to be trusted.
The problem with the UK rail system is that not only it is expensive, it is unreliable too.
If it was expensive but Swiss-style, I think people would tolerate it. But they don't, because it isn't.
France's system might not be better in actuality, same as Germany's (haven't seen the recent figures but I believe long-form services are more unreliable in those countries but short-form services are more reliable) but they aren't spending £300 to get from Berlin to Hamburg
Japanese “bullet” trains are cheaper, more frequent, more reliable, quicker and nicer than UK trains… buuuuuuut that’s on the back of a lot of public investment years ago.
I'm very happy to have the Japanese system here but it would mean a wholesale re-doing of the "privatisation" we have done here.
@DeltapollUK · 3m 🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 29% (+2) Lab 40% (-2) Lib Dem 11% (-2) Other 21% (+2) Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023 Sample: 1,005 GB adults (Changes from 1st-4th November 2023)
@DeltapollUK · 3m 🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 29% (+2) Lab 40% (-2) Lib Dem 11% (-2) Other 21% (+2) Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023 Sample: 1,005 GB adults (Changes from 1st-4th November 2023)
Sunak, who has been unable to recall almost anything he said or did between 2020 and this morning, now quotes a line the Deputy Chief Medical Officer gave to a press conference three years ago.
Having spent TWENTY MINUTES insisting that no advice was sought on Eat Out to Help Out because it was a "purely fiscal measure", nothing to do with behaviour, Sunak makes this CLANGER admitting it was about behaviour.
Look at his little face as he tries to work out what to say.
People seem to praise Sunak whenever he starts speaking but by the end he is acting like an annoyed child.
This is why I think he would be a disaster in the TV debates, the longer they went on the more annoyed he would get. His temperament is not good, whatever you say about Keir Starmer he's so boring he can't even get annoyed with a fly.
Sat in a meeting this morning. People from various parts of the UK saying they are done with rail travel. Endless repeated major delays and cancellations mean they just aren't reliable enough to be trusted.
The problem with the UK rail system is that not only it is expensive, it is unreliable too.
If it was expensive but Swiss-style, I think people would tolerate it. But they don't, because it isn't.
France's system might not be better in actuality, same as Germany's (haven't seen the recent figures but I believe long-form services are more unreliable in those countries but short-form services are more reliable) but they aren't spending £300 to get from Berlin to Hamburg
Japanese “bullet” trains are cheaper, more frequent, more reliable, quicker and nicer than UK trains… buuuuuuut that’s on the back of a lot of public investment years ago.
And limited to non-existent planning restrictions. The trains just bomb through built up areas and countryside on prominent high speed rail lines with none of your tunnelling through suburbs, protecting ancient woodland, avoiding ponds with rare newts or preserving views immortalised in literature. Not that this is an approach we could realistically adopt in the UK, and the Japanese cityscape is by and large pretty ugly as a result of their approach to planning, but it certainly would have made construction a lot simpler and cheaper.
It's worth recalling that most of the urban areas in Japan had been burnt down by the USAF less than 2 decades before the first bullet trains were set up.
For example 60% of Tokyo, where they dropped half a million incendiary napalm bomblets (source: Britannica) in a single night - burning down an area where 1.5 million people lived. In London terms I make that night's damage roughly equivalent to everything inside Zone (16 sqm).
Senior Tory MPs tell me the whips have a problem with their backbenchers ahead of tomorrow's Rwanda vote. One says trust was eroded in last week's infected blood defeat, and colleagues are not being straight with the whips any more. Another MP: "The whips are wetting themselves."
The Daily Mail there, shutting down the right for Gary Lineker to freely speak. It only appears that they care about free speech when it is for right-wing causes.
If he didn't abuse his freedom of speech to split the infinitive I might feel more inclined to support him.
I see the PB Libz masturbated themselves into a feverish frenzy over Rwanda earlier this morning.
Unedifying but wholly predictable.
The ERG are frotting themselves into an early election
Sunak performed well at the inquiry this morning, it might also suit him to put some clear blue water with the ERG if he can still get his Rwanda bill through
I am in Portugal and missed it all. Was Rishi fantastic? I am not sure how your second statement works in the Government's favour, but good luck anyway.
New Dutch study on the economic impact of immigration demo-demo.nl/wp-content/upl… migration from other rich countries a net benefit, migration from poor countries a net drain
This should be required reading for our policy makers and officials in the Home Office. Nick Palmer noted one small part of the report ("table on page 90 and the subsequent discussion") to draw his own slanted conclusions. I've now skim-read it in full and would just note its concluding sentence:
The calculations in this report leave no doubt about what this means in the long term: increasing pressure on public finances and ultimately the end of the welfare state as we know it today. A choice for the current legal framework is therefore implicitly a choice against the welfare state.
In a sense, it doesn’t matter if policy makers read it or not. Immigration is now part of the culture war and you’re either open-borders-left or near-fascist right.
Have to say am surprised that the ERG looks as if though it might vote down the Rwanda bill. This looks like remainers voting down the May Brexit bill type error to me, but the other way round. The ERG isn't going to get anything if they vote this down.
One thread of this multiple folly is that the internal Tory debate - in which every Tory MP thinks the bill is either too soft or too hard and everyone knows that Cleverley thinks his own bill is crazy - is also pointless.
The Commons can delay it for a matter of days or weeks, the Lords can delay it for a year, and the immediate generic legal challenges (I can think of some and I am not being paid to) would take at least 6 months as there is plainly stuff of public importance to go to the SC. There would then be each individual challenge...
By which time there would have been a Labour government for some months.
So this is merely a PR stunt (a worse one would have done but I can't think of one) and the essence of the stunt is that it proves Tories have a line on Johnny Foreigner of election winning proportions. Any good it could do as that PR stunt is being trashed by the Tory MPs.
This is neither Machiavelli nor statesmanship. It has its comic side.
Have to say am surprised that the ERG looks as if though it might vote down the Rwanda bill. This looks like remainers voting down the May Brexit bill type error to me, but the other way round. The ERG isn't going to get anything if they vote this down.
I tend to agree and I'm surprised. Given that this is the only bill on offer, why vote against? To bring down the Government, sure, but who is the alternative PM and are they ready with a plan?
This is only a rough draft of a work in progress, but it looks worth pursuing.
Has some unflattering first reflections on UK defence procurement.
(Benaich was one of the driving forces behind the government's reformed University business spin out policy, which is one of the few things to Sunak's credit.)
New Dutch study on the economic impact of immigration demo-demo.nl/wp-content/upl… migration from other rich countries a net benefit, migration from poor countries a net drain
This should be required reading for our policy makers and officials in the Home Office. Nick Palmer noted one small part of the report ("table on page 90 and the subsequent discussion") to draw his own slanted conclusions. I've now skim-read it in full and would just note its concluding sentence:
The calculations in this report leave no doubt about what this means in the long term: increasing pressure on public finances and ultimately the end of the welfare state as we know it today. A choice for the current legal framework is therefore implicitly a choice against the welfare state.
In a sense, it doesn’t matter if policy makers read it or not. Immigration is now part of the culture war and you’re either open-borders-left or near-fascist right.
One of Trump's refrains during in the 2016 campaign was, "If you don't have borders, you don't have a country." He had more of a point than his detractors would like to admit.
If you want to make a point, don’t mention that Trump once supported that point. If Trump said something, that’s in and of itself strong evidence it’s a terrible idea!
My mortgage has just gone to its new interest rate. Up £155 a month. Thank you, Tories!
~£260 for us at current rates but we've got two parts, smaller due Feb 2025 and larger due Dec 2025 so I'm hopeful that will drop a bit before then under the strong and steady leadership of Keir Starmer rather than chaos with Rishi Sunak Unless the fekker clings on so that we have to remortgage the first part under the chaos of a zombie government and a general election.
The cheap money couldn't last forever, but it is unfortunate that that cheap money, by making larger mortgages 'affordable'*, helped to push up property prices to the extent that more realistic rates are now making things painful.
* the affordability tests are interesting as we've always been offered Agreement in Principle amounts far in excess of what we consider we could afford to service
I think we got AIPed for about 300k on a joint income of 70k odd when I last remortgaged. Madness.
4.25x joint income is fairly modest
I was at 8x at one point although I wasn’t sleeping comfortably at night!
Aye but at what interest rate? At 5%, I’d say 3x is kind of the outer limit of comfort.
About 40% of net income
So let’s say 25% gross income in interest. Capitalising that at 20x (1/0.05) implies you can afford a 5x salary multiple and still be very comfortable
Comments
https://x.com/cjsnowdon/status/1734182688016204016?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
It feels extreme, but Rishi flops about so much it’s plausible he might go for it.
Sunak, who has been unable to recall almost anything he said or did between 2020 and this morning, now quotes a line the Deputy Chief Medical Officer gave to a press conference three years ago.
PROPER SNIPPY RISHI NOW.
@sturdyAlex
Having spent TWENTY MINUTES insisting that no advice was sought on Eat Out to Help Out because it was a "purely fiscal measure", nothing to do with behaviour, Sunak makes this CLANGER admitting it was about behaviour.
Look at his little face as he tries to work out what to say.
https://x.com/sturdyAlex/status/1734221235733590290?s=20
Sunak either joins the loons and has an election on a hardline stop the boats stance, or pulls the policy and faces a VONC (which he would probably just about survive, but would essentially be a lamer duck than he already is and facing complete electoral meltdown).
Or maybe, you know, we have to factor in a resignation. He could just up and quit. We assume he wants to cling on, but what if it all has just become too much and like Mrs May he decides the only way out is the exit door?
(40 years ago)
https://youtu.be/K3yUSRom2CM?si=DZg_kNGnuVGEsIQh
I was at 8x at one point although I wasn’t sleeping comfortably at night!
a (detected) Covid infection rate that was ~50 lower in UK in Agust rises much more rapidly in UK in September and crosses over early October and by the end of October is ~33% higher
Now, that may well be just seasonal lag due to the countries included, but it's not good evidence of no effect from just eyeballing it.
Most studies give it a modest(ish) effect on infections, but an effect nonetheless.
Why you continue to advocate him is beyond me.
There are a surprising amount of hard-righters on here these days, mind you.
The point he was making was that, if you don't implement his extreme form of border security (at enormous expense) you don't have a country. Which was simply untrue - whether or not you think his border policy was right.
Where our former (also failed) Mayor Jenny Durkin and her (ditto) Police Chief Carmen Best oh-so conveniently "lost" THEIR text messages pertaining to official business. After they demonstrated their gross incompetence in "handling" the civil unrest in Seattle following the murder of George Floyd.
IMHO the only sensible, serious response to such brazen misconduct by top public officials, are MASSIVE sanctions up to and including jail time.
At 5%, I’d say 3x is kind of the outer limit of comfort.
It beggars belief that the Civil Service allowed this.
·
3m
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 29% (+2)
Lab 40% (-2)
Lib Dem 11% (-2)
Other 21% (+2)
Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023
Sample: 1,005 GB adults
(Changes from 1st-4th November 2023)
Runnin' Down A Dream - Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv4-m-cIZf4
I'd tell 'em to stay out of the ditches . . . but it's WAY too late for that sound advice.
This is why I think he would be a disaster in the TV debates, the longer they went on the more annoyed he would get. His temperament is not good, whatever you say about Keir Starmer he's so boring he can't even get annoyed with a fly.
For example 60% of Tokyo, where they dropped half a million incendiary napalm bomblets (source: Britannica) in a single night - burning down an area where 1.5 million people lived. In London terms I make that night's damage roughly equivalent to everything inside Zone (16 sqm).
https://cdn.britannica.com/00/219600-050-E7894301/major-bombing-campaigns-World-War-II-hamburg-dresden-tokyo-hiroshima-nagasaki.jpg
I don't know the history well enough to know whether lines were built through remaining areas, or demolished wrecks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Tokyo#/media/File:Tokyo_1945-3-10-1.jpg
Senior Tory MPs tell me the whips have a problem with their backbenchers ahead of tomorrow's Rwanda vote.
One says trust was eroded in last week's infected blood defeat, and colleagues are not being straight with the whips any more.
Another MP: "The whips are wetting themselves."
NEW THREAD
*Probably not.
The Commons can delay it for a matter of days or weeks, the Lords can delay it for a year, and the immediate generic legal challenges (I can think of some and I am not being paid to) would take at least 6 months as there is plainly stuff of public importance to go to the SC. There would then be each individual challenge...
By which time there would have been a Labour government for some months.
So this is merely a PR stunt (a worse one would have done but I can't think of one) and the essence of the stunt is that it proves Tories have a line on Johnny Foreigner of election winning proportions. Any good it could do as that PR stunt is being trashed by the Tory MPs.
This is neither Machiavelli nor statesmanship. It has its comic side.
So let’s say 25% gross income in interest. Capitalising that at 20x (1/0.05) implies you can afford a 5x salary multiple and still be very comfortable