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If you’re a lurker and have a Desire to delurk, why not delurk tonight. You’ll find posting on PB, The Sweetest Thing, I’m hoping that at least One lurker will delurk.
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One seasoned campaign professional with knowledge of the resources being allocated to key seats has indicated to Uncut that the high command now views majorities of over 2,400 in the south as increasingly beyond Labour’s reach.
Out of the 43 key seats in London, the south east, the south west and eastern regions, 28 have a majority of over 2,400 which would mean Labour is effectively concentrating on 15 seats.
Expectations are higher in the 63 seats in the north, north west, east midlands, west midlands, Wales and Scotland. But even here there are limits, with the source suggesting that based on current canvass returns and the performance of the incumbent MPs, majorities of over 5,000 will be extremely difficult to overturn.
There are 13 seats in these regions which have majorities of over 5,000, which when combined with the southern seats that are being de-prioritised sums to a total of 41 key seats where Labour is ramping down resources because it does not expect to win.
This gives an effective key seat total of 65 rather than 106 .
UKIP on course to overtake the Lib Dems as country's third biggest political party: http://bit.ly/1faYTG1
YouGov due out tonight?
The big problem we have here is buy to leave - essentially people buy up blocks and leave them empty - it's just a great way to make money because the market is rocketing. Few of my team are wealthy enough to get a look in, despite earning more than the national average.
We should start a debate on this - whether or not Miliband's proposal is viable.
UKIP gained 1,000 new members last month, the LDs gained 1,000 new members last year.
Our panel tonight - @dannyalexander, @TheFemaleGreer, Amanda Platell and Clive Anderson. Join us at 10:35pm on ITV. pic.twitter.com/9a4il2WNJc
Labour uncut have literally made that up. It is amazing how a website can have such suicidal tendencies. Pretty much everyone in the Labour party knows that is untrue and undermines the entire authority of the site.
http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20140217/54401265152/ce-barroso-no-queria-interferir-proceso-democratico-marcha-escocia-catalunya.html#.UwJNHpRMwvg.twitter
Courtesy Google translator, 'The EC says now that Barroso "did not want to interfere in the democratic process underway". Brussels clarifies the words of its leader on Catalonia and Scotland and admits that Kosovo is not "illustrative" "a perfect analogy" but only one case'
"I expect that Ukip will comfortably outpoll the Liberal Democrats at the European Elections in May."
And they say journos won't go out on a limb and make bold claims anymore...
There'll be no nighthawks tomorrow night, I'm at the Citeh v Barcelona match
Note: they are a sister party of the Lib Dems in the European Parliament. Parallel fates?
I have to say that I think Alex Salmond has made a major mistake today. The clips being shown on the news of Alex Salmond demanding a resolute "Scottish response" of the Scots being able to do whatever they want comes across as chippy nationalism and is just untenable. Everyone knows that it will require two to tango, and he can't base Scottish independence off calling George Osborne & Ed Balls' bluff. That's particularly the case when the English & Welsh public are behind them.
It would have been far more sensible had he reacted today by saying "I think it's an enormous shame that the British Chancellor is determined to be so obstructive. As an independent nation, we will do our best to seek a co-operative relationship with our neighbours, and I hope that the Tories and Labour would come round. If that's not possible, however, we will seek to have a Scottish pound that is fixed to the British pound for a transitory period, before setting our own course. This would follow Ireland's previously successful path." He would have looked like the adult in the room, but now he's blown it.
The No side are showing zero interest in trying to attract their support. Long may that last.
Osborne is a liability to No.
Of course we are going to talk about Osborne. Lots. And then lots more. And then lots, lots more again. With a cherry on the top.
But by then Salmond will remain friendless. The very people he needs to help him get devo max are the ones he spends his time demonising.The man has no clue as well as no plan.
We see that in British politics: much as those in the hilariously out-of-touch Westminster punditocracy vacuum parrot "elections are won in the centre ground" to eachother, we constantly see that Labour's poll ratings have their biggest jumps when they do something radically leftwing, and the same to some extent for when the Conservatives do or say something radically rightwing (on immigration/Europe/benefits). Because of that, I actually think the Lib Dems would be struggling right now even if they weren't in coalition (assuming they'd be sticking to the Cleggite FDP-style bland centrism). Centrism politics is for when times are good, when people feel things are going pretty well as they are and don't want something to massively rock the boat and upset things.
"jatlh ec DaH 'e' "nIS qaStaHvIS democratic mIw underway wej DaneH barroso". chuH DevwI' catalonia 'ej scotland mu' brussels 'ej 'e' kosovo 'oHbe' "illustrative" "pup analogy" yIyoH 'ach wa' neH case"
Courtesy of Bing. :-)
My mother drunk or sober!
Now considering his position currently, should he lose his seat he would seem to be a good fit for a Commissioner's role having been an MEP since 1999 and a leader of an EU Parliament Grouping for three years.
The leaders of the Confederation of British Industry and the Institute of Directors both warned that a currency union would be "unstable" as David Cameron said that the Scottish first minister was "now a man without a plan".
In a direct challenge to the Scottish first minister, Salmond was told that his warnings of increased transaction charges for businesses on both sides of the border were outweighed by the disadvantages of creating a currency union outside a full political union.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/17/business-leaders-alex-salmond-currency-union
Please desist.
Also, you haven't replied to the post this morning.
Please confirm you understand both instructions
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/222555/#Comment_222555
'Of course we are going to talk about Osborne'
You've lost the currency union & EU membership but still got the queen as head of state plus the BBC,so not all bad news.
But can understand why you want to blame Osborne.
11 hours 11 minutes 11 seconds
Continuing this theme from the last thread, this post refers to the Commercial Banking Division of Lloyds Banking Group teaming up with Markit to create an monthly index of "business activity" for each region of the UK. Unlike the BoS Jobs Survey, the Lloyds report was published a week ago.
The Lloyds report confirms the trend we have seen from other indices published in the first couple of months this year. Firstly that growth rates and index levels have fallen slightly from their peaks in the second half of last year but, second, that they remain at levels consistent with sustained growth.
What makes the Lloyds survey interesting is the regional variation below the index for the UK as a whole, which read 59.1 in January down from 60.0 in December 2013. What the report focuses on is regional variations in business activity. And picking up from Carlotta's comment on the previous thread, what the report shows is truly "contrarian".
On a 'country' level, Scotland recorded a 3 month high (58.2) and Northern Ireland a 118 month high (60.4). Wales was slightly down on December with (58.2 from 58.4).
Within England, London saw a major drop to a seven month low (57.0 from 60.3), with only the North East (56.8 from 60.4) and East Midlands (56.2 from 59.4) registering lower. The regions moving up were the South West (62.8 from 62.4) and the South East (61.5 from 60.1). The West Midlands came next, slightly down on December (60.9 from 61.7). In the middle were the East (59.9 up from 59.7), North West (58.9 down from 59.1) and Yorkshire (57.6 up from 55.8).
Rather than yellow boxes this time I can link to some good graphics prepared by Markit. First a heat map showing the above figures and trends: business activity seems to be following the path of the Atlantic Storms!
Heatmap: http://bit.ly/1oJ8IPt
The seoond image is a Markit chart summarising the monthly movements and placing them in context.
Chart: http://bit.ly/1kOOd3n
The good news in these figures is that the economic upturn of last year, insofar as it can be measured by 'business activity', seems finally to be spreading out to the regions.
The main concern must be the size of fall off in London's reading. An index of 57.0 remains good but, given the weight of London in the UK total, it would be disappointing (and worrying) to see a similar sized fall of 3 points in next month's figures.
A secondary concern will be the relative poor performance in the East Midlands when compared to its twin to the West. This is not the first set of stats where the East Midlands trail. Good news perhaps for Labour PPCs seeking to regain their seats but more worrying for the rest of us.
As some of the old ones here know, I'm from Brazil and live in Rio but I'm going to spend a week in London in June (yes, during the World Cup) and it would be nice to meet some of you.
Mitchell 11/4
Lansley 3/1
Cridland 5/1
Patterson 11/2
Cridland is of course the Director General of the CBI so he'll have to find some way to curry more favour with Cammie. But how? LOL
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour seven points ahead: CON 33%, LAB 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour seven points ahead: CON 33%, LAB 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%
http://news.scotland.gov.uk/Speeches-Briefings/First-Minister-speech-February-17-2014-95a.aspx
'The leaders of the Confederation of British Industry and the Institute of Directors both warned that a currency union would be "unstable" '
They might know slightly more about what's in the best interests of RUK business than lectures from Salmond.
If you want to ban the word "twits" for everyone then go right ahead. I can easily do without it.
http://archive.is/dxT1c
Anyway, off to bed now.
Salmond on the other hand would be regarded as one of the great comic creations of all time if he was a character in a novel. Hence the interest in the debate from south of the border.
Your thinking on all aspects of this debate is crippled by your fatal inability to understand the concept of asymmetry.
Fixed that for you. Foptastic.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10645060/Snap-of-David-Cameron-shows-a-grey-man-is-back-at-No-10.html
Fear not for the East Midlands, we are merely a little distracted by the performance of the magnificent Leicester City, and not too disastrous performances by the trees and sheep.
It is good news indeed that the economic revival is spreading across the land!
A great many across the UK will see today as a very bad day for Eck. In Scotland there will be a great many who believe he was the "little man" standing up against the English establishment for his country. The more Eck is seen as having his back to the wall, the more many Scots will be determined to support him. That is the greatest worry for the Better Together side.
And all the time the evidence grows that the main problem with flooding was poor planning and poor maintenance of our flood defences and drainage systems.
Could I assure family & friends in Scotland there is no way my constituents would want or accept a £ currency union in event of independence
She's barmy, isn't she?
Or, to put it in plain English, the entire UK political establishment, other than the SNP, agrees with Osborne (which is hardly a surprise since he was stating the obvious). That establishment represents well over 90% of those who might actually come to make the decision.
LOL
Westminster. Just look at the Cabinet and the Shadow Cabinet.
Truly we are at the end of days when immutable certainties are come to an end.
*chortle*
But fair.