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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Floods: Is this going to start impacting on Voting Inte
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Floods: Is this going to start impacting on Voting Intentions?
How has Cameron has responded to the recent flooding?
Total well 29 (+4), Total Badly 60 (-2), Net -31 (+6)
(changes since last week)
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The bit that will stick in people's memories once the water's drained away will be Cameron's "money is no object" comment, which blows another hole in the austerity narrative.
WE can't deal with floods, we can't deal with two inches of snow and we can't deal with leaves on our rails ! This is Britain with it's disdain for public services.
We have built on floods plains because these were the places where there would be least resistance from planning objectors; the NIMBY's.
As we get more prone to the vagaries of the climate, more such calamity's will take place. And you cannot build flood defences for huge swathes of the countryside. Why should the Levels expect to be flood-free ? They are below the sea level as i understand it and it's mostly agricultural land. What would be the cost of protection per acre ?
But these are Tory / Lib Dem voters. The Tories are very acutely aware of this and indeed "money will be no object" when it comes to their own voters ! Sod the rest !
... actually, I suppose the question ought to be "would Miliband, Clegg or Farage have done any better?" - which answers itself. For reasons which have been thrashed to death on this site, the quality of political leadership across the spectrum is pretty poor.
Fires (as in Australia) are slightly more interesting, but only slightly.
It is a surprise that these places have not been flooded more often. They are after all called a "flood plain". There is a reson for that.
Hard to say. It may be that the political battle and any change to policies and polling will be more about how we go forward rather than how the floods were 'handled' (there's a limited degree to which a manner can affect tons of rain falling from the sky).
There seems, from the badly worded polling, to be a view in the country about global warming being to blame. Miliband's wibbled about it in The Observer. But when his green policies of taxing energy bills (directly contrary to his Marxist price freeze, let us recall) and so forth filter through to the public, will they be for that, or against it?
So blaming any party or politician for a flood is silly. However, two things for me that resonate that could well have VI impact as this drags on.
First the impact of the cuts. The Environment Agency were targeted first by the incompetent government attack dogs - Ed M was minister in charge, led by another ex Labour minister, LETS BLAME THEM. So we had the extraordinary sight of Eric the Silurian on TV last weekend saying the EA were incompetent, then within 24 hours he's being told to say that no one has more faith in their excellence than him. Also, the story that the EA have got hundreds of people out there mopping upo who government cuts have sacked - they've been told that they'll get an extension on their redundancy period for the floods. Start totting up the shambolic attack on the EA, the budget cut and perhaps the media will bring us a kiss and tell from a sacked EA staffer and its going to look increasingly nasty for the government.
Second the money's no object line. That the government immediately started spinning this that its money taken from other budgets, that the cash announced for the railways was announced last year etc etc etc - none of that has stuck over the top of "money is no object". That being the case then any and every cut is done for ideological grounds not economic. Imagine campaign posters of people arpt food banks, kids sent to school hungry, another disabled victim of ATOS killing themselves, overlaid with "money is no object" in the way of the "we can't go on like this" Dave airbrushed poster from 2010.
Like the cut to the 50p tax rate its astonishingly stupid politics. Which either proves ho out of touch the Cameroon clique is with reality or just how incompetent they are at political strategy.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BgfWoFLCEAA44_C.jpg
a) They're flatter and easy to build on;
b) Many of our existing towns and settlements are based around coasts and rivers, and therefore floodplains are nearer areas of demand;
c) Developers kid councils that they can manage excess water cheaply.
This trend will not stop; floodplains will still be built on because they are often where there is demand. The government and local councils need to be more rigorous in accepting new developments, and developers need to make developments and houses more resilient to floods.
But there is also another problem with localised flooding away from floodplains, and this often occurs without much media attention. And this is very often caused by poor water management in developments that could be avoided.
Media laziness is a fair comment about how things often work.
Snow's better. I've been forced to watch the snowball fighting or whatever in Socchi, and now I know something about Curling.
As kids, February was always known as "February Fill dyke", and the proper time for floods.
What next? Winds in March?
Note that Labour's lead isn't really declining "over the last year" while economic ratings improved, in the usual sense that there's been a gradual process. There hasn't. It quite explicitly declined last July from 8-10 to 5-7ish (because the Tory rating picked up by 3 points), and it's been largely unchanged every since, even though most of the good economic news stories have come more recently. Labour had a frothy rating over 40 earlier in the Parliament which declined last February to the 38ish level that's it's remainined ever since. While this may seem like hair-splitting (since it does mean the lead is down since last February), it's important to note that there doesn't seem to be a correlation with good economic news. I don't think bad news would change it much either: most people have made up their minds, and I can't remember a time with fewer "don't knows" on the doorstep. Table (excluding today's data):
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/re213g1tfi/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-120214.pdf
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10641488/Flood-hit-areas-earmarked-for-more-homes.html
It will be interesting to see if the cuts and redundancies are reversed. If not, then I guess Downing Street will be hoping for a dry start to 2015.
It's nowhere near the crisis that the media have built it into, but the issues that it has highlighted are very important for the future.
The truth of the matter (notwithstanding the fact that in reality, there isn't a lot any government could have done), is that Ed Milliband does indeed share some of the blame, as he was the Minister Responsible during that fruitcake Brown's time. He shares the blame with politicians from all sides, for the last few decades, who have all been far more keen on playing politics than actually taking the uncomfortable decisions on house building, the environment and flood protection.
You, like most on here, let your tribalism blind you to the reality.
The fact that the public-sector is not fit-for-purpose should cause concerns to the tax-payer. Unfortunately there are so many "happy-clappy" wannabe Tromso trolls being funded by England's wealth-creators that sanity is no longer a political requirement....
Longer term we need a revision of the planning guidance and a regulatory body with teeth.
Cuts can certainly go too far. But keeping swollen numbers of unproductive staff 'just in case' is crazy. Governments need to define a service level, and provide people and equipment to provide that service.
Flexibility is key. As an example, a few years ago I met a few BT engineers in a hotel in rural mid-Wales. They all had Geordie accents, and usually worked in the centre of Newcastle. They had been sent to work in rural Wales for a couple of weeks in order to refamiliarise themselves with rural phone networks: in city centre most are routed underground rather than overground. Apparently BT did this every so often, and rural engineers would go to work in cities. That way, if there was a critical short-term need for more engineers in an area, there would be staff with up-to-date experience that could be moved around the country.
One thing is very clear from this - we will need to plan and manage flood defences much more pro-actively going forwards. Even the Guardian editorial and Redward say so! I don't think as a nation we can afford to spend money on dealing with the effects of climate change and also trying to prevent it. What happens in the UK will have close to zero impact in the future direction of climate change. We should concentrate 100% of our time and efforts on making the place more robust to handling stormier weather. We should learn from the Dutch and build canals, dykes, polders, water pumping stations, etc and put ourselves back in control. That'd be a way better use of money that wind subsidies.
There has been a lot of inter county cooperation on this, brigades from all over the country have been sending crews and equipment to bolster the areas involved, but there could have been much more use of the Fire Service in this time of national emergency. Most of my brigade let it be known to SMT that we'd like to get involved in the relief and rescue effort. We've got the skills, got the equipment, got the motivation, and we damned sure have the time, we're under utilised. There needs to be a serious rethink on our strategies.
[NOTE: An independent London would face a Sutton-at-Hone revolt. Six-fingers may have to be trimmed back to size....]
Training them to drive and use machinery is a different matter; that might best be left in an emergency to experienced staff. In other words, train them to do the grunt work (and pay them well when they are called on - after all, 'money is no object'), releasing experienced staff to use that experience effectively.
However these floods might just be a case where there would never be enough people available due to the quantity of water; you can divert it slightly (usually at the cost of others), but that still leaves the same amount of water.
This is why the Dawlish and other storm damage, the Levels flooding, and the Thames/Severn/Itchen/Kent flooding are actually three difference issues with different solutions.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stilt_house
In the US, they call out the National Guard.
The spending stories are seeping into the popular papers even as we speak.
Many thousands on pet projects and bonuses. Gargantuan redundancy payments.
In the coming months this institution is going to get its insides torn out. Dave's being nice now - but it won't last.
Wales play France on Friday night. The French have had a cracking start, but the Welsh, despite an Irish mauling, are capable of giving them difficulty. And the Welsh need to win to keep their title hopes alive.
Italy versus Scotland is probably the wooden spoon decider. I fear for our northern countrymen [for now, at least] that the Italians will beat them.
England and Ireland should be a cracking match. Easy to see it going either way, but hopefully home advantage (as in Cardiff) will tell.
We know there are EA bods on the ground working their socks off, good for them and I hope they get well rewarded for it. But who is in charge? Have we seen the National Flood Relief Coordinator on telly giving us a daily briefing? Is there one? Who is in charge of all the firemen, soldiers etc? Who is in charge of each local flood relief or prevention area? The EA seems to have gone to ground at management level.
The shooting/hunting/fishing community might like having a party on their side. They have votes too.
:muppet-watch:
The floods are a consequence of a short-term extreme weather event, compounded by a legacy of short-term policymaking over the last 60 years or so. Whether or not climate change is also a factor, people understand the basic problem is poor Government and know that all parties have their share of the blame. That's why more and more voters are looking beyond the LabCon paradigm.
I expect there will be lots of voting against parties at the next General Election.
Noooooo. The charity bits like the RNLI work really well. Let the government take them over costs will go through the roof and the level of service will fall.
Why are they funding Gay Pride? what else is going on there?
Why do we have to borrow Dutch equipment?
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-26167818
Mr. Lilburne, I agree.
Anyway, like the "surplus" aircraft carriers we relied on to win the Falklands War, its a good job the floods happened now and not after these wasters at the EA had been given their cards. Cameron goes to Somerset and gets accosted by angry locals who say they have no help at a
L - " well you see we has to cut EA numbers, surplus workers needed to go which is why there is no one available for you. Had to make them redundant because we don't have any money because of the last Labour government. But don't worry, money is no object".....
They can focus on their areas of expertise, whilst a national body would just lead to these peripheries being run down. By all means let them work better together, but I really can't see just one body working. After all, what would be gained? In which ways do (say) the RNLI and coastguard fail to work together at the moment, or mountain rescue and the police / ambulance services?
As for your main point: how many crew members could your station afford to lose for a prolonged period (say two weeks), and yet still allow the station to fulfil its service obligations without risking the public?
I have no objection, in principal to a National Fire and Rescue Service, just that we only have the nightmare that was Prescott's Regional Control centre farce as a benchmark.
I suspect the EA has been doing the best it can with the resources available to it.
The extraordinary pattern of the jet stream, as well as the ice-storms in N America, are as yet unexplained but could be caused by changing ocean currents or the very quiet time the Sun is exhibiting, but none of this was mentioned by the "experts".
Money is really no object as the EA wastes vast amounts of money on wholly un-necessary projects and has a record of totally ignoring the experience of the local population who have experience of managing successfully changing water levels.
Local councils have proved to be ignoramuses regarding building on flood plains and have been shown to be very susceptible to bribery by developers in the form of new public buildings.
As has been stated before, the Dutch have enough proven experience in managing flood protection, but the EA has preferred to do its own thing and shown itself to be dysfunctional and too political and managed by people who do not know what they are doing.
The left seem to think that the flooding has magically turned people back to supporting lavishing untold billions on quangos like the EA.
I think the opposite. Ask the people of somerset what they think about the EA.
You missed out on...prepare their chests to take on a few extra medals for doing.....nothing !
And, by the way, Somerset and (arguably) Wiltshire are most definitely not "the South". They are the West Country.
Harriers were a scarce commodity on board Illustrious and Ark Royal after 2006, and when they were some on, they were often USMC or Spanish planes borrowed to keep the crews current.
Only someone as hideously brain-dead as Hoon could think that three aircraft carriers (Invincible did not even have engines) carrying aircraft without radar (when the RAF deigned to give the FAA the aircraft) were in any way capable of fighting a war at sea.
As for the carriers in the Falklands: Fluffy's answered that below.
I know "friends-of-friends" who have fought in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Would they fall foul of your treason paradigm? I have to say that, whilst I think Islam is not my cup-of-tea, that the "suicide-bomber (asshat)" who blew up the Syrian prison proved:
- Jihad is weird; He was English and did not want feck-all-to-do-with Arabism, and
- Just because "Our gubbermint" does not agree with it does not exclude 'our' right to participate (c.f. George Orwell/"Homage to Catalonia").
Of-course we will face a tax-bill as a result....Previous governments (of all colours) have pursued mergers in the name of "cost savings" (often illusionary), but you end up with something like the EA, which is trying to balance responsibilities for nature with responsibilities for flood defence and has to make a selection. Surely better to devolve power either to specialised agencies or to the regions for something like this (I could see the benefit of some kind of coordinating body so that, for instance, the Somerset Levels can learn best practice from the Norfolk Broads and vice versa).
It might - although I doubt - lead to higher admin costs, but if it gets the job done properly then that has to be worthwhile
Downthread someone asks critically why we have to borrow gear from the Dutch. Why not? They're acknowledged experts on the issue, they've been tackling it systematically for decades, and if we've got a crisis and they haven't, it makes absolute sense to bring in not just the gear but the experts too. That, surely, is the kind of cooperation with neighbours that even the most zealous Better Off Out supporter would feel made sense? (Should the Netherlands have a crisis shortage of crappy reality TV shows, we could rush to the rescue in the same way.)
However we have to stand up for ourselves. At the moment, I believe that fighting for al Qaeda and its associates in whatever field of conflict is treason, because we are engaged in a global conflict with them. From now on, prosecutions should be brought (or a specific law introduced if the Treason Act 1351 doesn't deliver the right results "adheres to the Queen's enemies in her Realm, giving them aid and comfort in her Realm or elsewhere")
Did Indonesia need to be an EU member before the Boxing-Day Tsunami?
Did Haiti have to be a US state to get the carrier-support following her tragic earthquake?
Did the Philippines have to be a Commonwealth-member before a Type-45 as sent to the aid-relief?
:troll-orf-posh-boy:
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/02/15/blow-to-ukip-in-comres-poll/
with a classic example of how responses depend on how you put the question:
Politicians should stop trying to reform schools and the NHS
Agree 41% Disagree 39%
Schools and hospitals need to be reformed if high standards are to be achieved or maintained
Agree 62% Disagree 19%
These views can only be reconciled if people believe that high standards are for some reason a bad thing. I suspect the difference is attributable to the word "politicians" (boo hiss) in the first question and the words "high standards" (hooray!) in the second.
The sample was taken on Wed/Thur, so not affected by any impact of the by-election (which I don't think there will be, but anyway...). The Opinium poll showing a 9-point Labour lead was taking Mon-Thur. Thus only YouGov is post-by-election (and shows no significant movement at all).
Finally, there's some punditry on the small sample of recent elections - apparently nobody has ever won since 1970 after being behind in the polls for two years (is that right?):
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ed-milibands-labour-party-track-3150615