Will Sunak’s “help the motorist” wheeze help turn the polls round? – politicalbetting.com

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Will Sunak’s “help the motorist” wheeze help turn the polls round? – politicalbetting.com

Is this a vote winner or a vote loser? https://t.co/9vkxhZuPlc

Read the full story here

JosiasJessop

It's a desperate attempt to appeal to emotions in certain people by a government that has run out of ideas and leadership.

JosiasJessop

Off-topic;

We pretty much all seem to be in agreement that large infrastructure projects cost *way* too much. Yet I think recent conversations seem to indicate one reason for this.

Apparently road schemes need to fully cater for the pepparami-in-lycra brigade and have a massive cycle network alongside them that they can whizz along on at 40 MPH.

Apparently railways should not touch any 'ancient' woodland, and instead be buried thousands of metres underground.

It's easy to take something we care about and say that a scheme has to preserve or enhance it. The problem is we all have things that we want to preserve and protect, and therefore the scheme has to pay for that, even if the things are f-all to do with roads or railways.

Say I want to protect the Lesser Farting MarsuLizard, one of which was reported as being seen by a pond by a drunken cleric in 1853. It just so happens I run a charity to help protect and raise awareness of the Lesser Farting MarsuLizard, and so I insist that the pond and all its environment is moved away from the scheme - and of course, I'll need funding for providing my expertise.

Now, I'd argue that many of these are good ideas, and ideally would be catered for. But they also cost. And a few million here; a few million there; and we soon reach significant sums.

Nigelb

JosiasJessop said:

It's a desperate attempt to appeal to emotions in certain people by a government that has run out of ideas and leadership.

Yes, but will it appeal to anyone beyond the terminally Tory ?

Nigelb

I didn't realise Caine had briefly un-retired.
The film sounds worth a watch, and he's still on firm at 90.
Along with John Standing.

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/sep/29/im-90-i-worry-if-im-gonna-make-it-to-lunch-michael-caine-and-john-standing-on-wives-war-and-feeling-like-the-queen
..At the heart of The Great Escaper is another enduring marriage, between Bernie and Irene, played by Glenda Jackson in her final film. She and Caine first worked together 48 years ago. “She was very young and pretty,” he says. “Very attractive. Bloody good actress. But a left-wing socialist and I’m all for making money because I come from a very poor background.” They never talked politics – bit busy making the movies. He saw her five days before she died in June: “She seemed fine.” He’s relieved it was quick..

...“Michael, darling,” says Standing, “I said to someone the other day: ‘Have you heard of Peter O’Toole?’ She said: ‘Well, I know the name.’ Once you are dead, you are dead. You think of Bogart! But young people only know Goose. What’s he called? Gosling. Big names in the theatre – Gielgud – mean nothing.”..

JosiasJessop

Nigelb said:

JosiasJessop said:

It's a desperate attempt to appeal to emotions in certain people by a government that has run out of ideas and leadership.

Yes, but will it appeal to anyone beyond the terminally Tory ?

I can imagine it might appeal to some in the Red Wall, for whom public transport is next to non-existent and sees a load of city-dwellers who get busses every ten minutes past their door. And who park on the street, usually five doors down from their own house.

Monksfield

The tragedy of Sunak’s courting of Mr Toad is that it demonstrates the utter inability of modern Conservatism to grapple with real world problems and show a degree of leadership and innovation in tackling them. It’s a pitch to the past.

JosiasJessop

Monksfield said:

The tragedy of Sunak’s courting of Mr Toad is that it demonstrates the utter inability of modern Conservatism to grapple with real world problems and show a degree of leadership and innovation in tackling them. It’s a pitch to the past.

Calling drivers 'Mr Toad' is showing you have no interest in drivers, and people who have to rely on cars.

I mean, I'd never refer to keen cyclists as 'Pepparami in lycra'...

Heathener

I expect it will help a little but it's utterly desperate stuff, ethically appalling, and will consign him to the dustbin of history.

Ultimately it won't really turn the dial though. Most people have made up their minds and the missing phantom 2019 vote ain't comin' back to Rishi.

This reactionary right drivel means that in 10, 20, 50 years time Rishi Sunak, if he's remembered at all, will be at the foot of the British PM league table alongside his immediate predecessor. What a farcical period of political life this has been.

At least Boris Johnson achieved things.

Heathener

JosiasJessop said:

Monksfield said:

The tragedy of Sunak’s courting of Mr Toad is that it demonstrates the utter inability of modern Conservatism to grapple with real world problems and show a degree of leadership and innovation in tackling them. It’s a pitch to the past.

Calling drivers 'Mr Toad' is showing you have no interest in drivers, and people who have to rely on cars.

I mean, I'd never refer to keen cyclists as 'Pepparami in lycra'...

I don't think that's the nuance of Monksfield's remark? He wasn't calling all drivers Mr Toad. He was speaking about the courting of a particular type of unethical attitude to motoring, as exemplified by Mr Toad.

This is clearly all part of a desperate pitch to the 'core' F.U. element of the tory right (Labour has it too on the left). You put it perfectly yourself just a few minutes ago:

'It's a desperate attempt to appeal to emotions in certain people'

ydoethur

Monksfield said:

The tragedy of Sunak’s courting of Mr Toad is that it demonstrates the utter inability of modern Conservatism to grapple with real world problems and show a degree of leadership and innovation in tackling them. It’s a pitch to the past.

The issue is that he might court Mr Toad but he will Rat on him given half a chance.

Monksfield

JosiasJessop said:

Monksfield said:

The tragedy of Sunak’s courting of Mr Toad is that it demonstrates the utter inability of modern Conservatism to grapple with real world problems and show a degree of leadership and innovation in tackling them. It’s a pitch to the past.

Calling drivers 'Mr Toad' is showing you have no interest in drivers, and people who have to rely on cars.

I mean, I'd never refer to keen cyclists as 'Pepparami in lycra'...

Not so, I’m a driver myself. I need my car too. But i’m prepared to contemplate change if somebody has the vision and leadership to make it happen. That won’t be Sunak.

Daveyboy1961

ydoethur said:

Monksfield said:

The tragedy of Sunak’s courting of Mr Toad is that it demonstrates the utter inability of modern Conservatism to grapple with real world problems and show a degree of leadership and innovation in tackling them. It’s a pitch to the past.

The issue is that he might court Mr Toad but he will Rat on him given half a chance.

..we need to badger our MPs....

ydoethur

Somewhat off topic, I was amused to find this comment I made in 2015 when looking for something else:

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/702248/#Comment_702248

Turned out I was right, but never in my wildest nightmares did I imagine the Republican candidate who benefited would turn out to be as mad as Trump is.

ydoethur

Daveyboy1961 said:

ydoethur said:

Monksfield said:

The tragedy of Sunak’s courting of Mr Toad is that it demonstrates the utter inability of modern Conservatism to grapple with real world problems and show a degree of leadership and innovation in tackling them. It’s a pitch to the past.

The issue is that he might court Mr Toad but he will Rat on him given half a chance.

..we need to badger our MPs....

That's an otter issue.

Stuartinromford

It shores up the existing vote, and might well encourage some RefUKers back- though they will always demand more than Rishi is able to offer.

I suspect it won't be transformative, though. Whatever the Conservative press think, people aren't downrating Sunak because he is too mean to drivers. And the whole thing looks desperately cynical and calculating.

Oh, and there's plenty of potential for it to fall apart once it touches the real world. Like most of Sunak's ideas.

Taz

Heathener said:

JosiasJessop said:

Monksfield said:

The tragedy of Sunak’s courting of Mr Toad is that it demonstrates the utter inability of modern Conservatism to grapple with real world problems and show a degree of leadership and innovation in tackling them. It’s a pitch to the past.

Calling drivers 'Mr Toad' is showing you have no interest in drivers, and people who have to rely on cars.

I mean, I'd never refer to keen cyclists as 'Pepparami in lycra'...

I don't think that's the nuance of Monksfield's remark? He wasn't calling all drivers Mr Toad. He was speaking about the courting of a particular type of unethical attitude to motoring, as exemplified by Mr Toad.

This is clearly all part of a desperate pitch to the 'core' F.U. element of the tory right (Labour has it too on the left). You put it perfectly yourself just a few minutes ago:

'It's a desperate attempt to appeal to emotions in certain people'

I think you missed the self mocking point in JJs post.

ydoethur

Stuartinromford said:

It shores up the existing vote, and might well encourage some RefUKers back- though they will always demand more than Rishi is able to offer.

I suspect it won't be transformative, though. Whatever the Conservative press think, people aren't downrating Sunak because he is too mean to drivers. And the whole thing looks desperately cynical and calculating.

Oh, and there's plenty of potential for it to fall apart once it touches the real world. Like most of Sunak's ideas.

That implies there are some that don't. Have you got any examples?

Heathener

Taz said:

Heathener said:

JosiasJessop said:

Monksfield said:

The tragedy of Sunak’s courting of Mr Toad is that it demonstrates the utter inability of modern Conservatism to grapple with real world problems and show a degree of leadership and innovation in tackling them. It’s a pitch to the past.

Calling drivers 'Mr Toad' is showing you have no interest in drivers, and people who have to rely on cars.

I mean, I'd never refer to keen cyclists as 'Pepparami in lycra'...

I don't think that's the nuance of Monksfield's remark? He wasn't calling all drivers Mr Toad. He was speaking about the courting of a particular type of unethical attitude to motoring, as exemplified by Mr Toad.

This is clearly all part of a desperate pitch to the 'core' F.U. element of the tory right (Labour has it too on the left). You put it perfectly yourself just a few minutes ago:

'It's a desperate attempt to appeal to emotions in certain people'

I think you missed the self mocking point in JJs post.

I think you're referring back to the wrong JJ post. The self-mocking one was a different post.

Edit. Oh the cycling part? Still not really the point.

RochdalePioneers

I think we need to stop questioning just how bad Sunak is, as if he is something in isolation. Go forward 20 years and historians will be considering the May Johnson Truss Sunak debacle as acts in a single play. And potentially the as yet unperformed 5th act where the Corruption Party installs yet another idiot as PM and wonders why their grifting incompetence carries on unabated.

Taz

Heathener said:

Taz said:

Heathener said:

JosiasJessop said:

Monksfield said:

The tragedy of Sunak’s courting of Mr Toad is that it demonstrates the utter inability of modern Conservatism to grapple with real world problems and show a degree of leadership and innovation in tackling them. It’s a pitch to the past.

Calling drivers 'Mr Toad' is showing you have no interest in drivers, and people who have to rely on cars.

I mean, I'd never refer to keen cyclists as 'Pepparami in lycra'...

I don't think that's the nuance of Monksfield's remark? He wasn't calling all drivers Mr Toad. He was speaking about the courting of a particular type of unethical attitude to motoring, as exemplified by Mr Toad.

This is clearly all part of a desperate pitch to the 'core' F.U. element of the tory right (Labour has it too on the left). You put it perfectly yourself just a few minutes ago:

'It's a desperate attempt to appeal to emotions in certain people'

I think you missed the self mocking point in JJs post.

I think you're referring back to the wrong JJ post

Ha ha, the one you refer to.

Stuartinromford

ydoethur said:

Stuartinromford said:

It shores up the existing vote, and might well encourage some RefUKers back- though they will always demand more than Rishi is able to offer.

I suspect it won't be transformative, though. Whatever the Conservative press think, people aren't downrating Sunak because he is too mean to drivers. And the whole thing looks desperately cynical and calculating.

Oh, and there's plenty of potential for it to fall apart once it touches the real world. Like most of Sunak's ideas.

That implies there are some that don't. Have you got any examples?

Oh, there must be something...

Look, I'm in a charitable mood today.

JosiasJessop

ydoethur said:

Somewhat off topic, I was amused to find this comment I made in 2015 when looking for something else:

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/702248/#Comment_702248

Turned out I was right, but never in my wildest nightmares did I imagine the Republican candidate who benefited would turn out to be as mad as Trump is.

Sad to see contributions from a poster whom I believe is no longer with us. Also, the fact that Ukraine and Russia were being actively discussed as well - because of the MH17 shootdown.

Chris

Leaked dialogue during photoshoot:
PR Man 1: "That's lovely, Rish, but the focus group indicated you shouldn't grin so much. Could you cover your teeth up please?"
PR Man 2: "(Whisper) What did the focus group say about him looking so smug?"

Taz

I think this will help a bit. Often measures seen as anti motorist are just brought in and imposed with little consultation or discussion. Usually aided and abetted by happy clappy pieces in the tame local media and local TV.

Outside of the so called metropolitan bubble I don’t think this will do them any harm in the towns and the boroughs.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

JosiasJessop

Taz said:

I think this will help a bit. Often measures seen as anti motorist are just brought in and imposed with little consultation or discussion. Usually aided and abetted by happy clappy pieces in the tame local media and local TV.

Outside of the so called metropolitan bubble I don’t think this will do them any harm in the towns and the boroughs.

Or anti=pedestrian. I fail to see how anyone thinks this cycle path and footpath are any good. They say they''re going to fix the worst patches, but you can't really get two pushchairs to pass even where there is no street furniture. As for people in wheelchairs...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-66934308

SouthamObserver

Motorist is such a 20th century term. It always makes me think of blokes who wear chamois leather gloves when they get behind the wheel of their Rovers. In the third decade of the 21st century, the vast majority of people are car drivers and also live in neighbourhoods that they want to be as safe and as unpolluted as possible. Some even use public transport, if it is still available after 13 years of cuts.

Stuartinromford

RochdalePioneers said:

I think we need to stop questioning just how bad Sunak is, as if he is something in isolation. Go forward 20 years and historians will be considering the May Johnson Truss Sunak debacle as acts in a single play. And potentially the as yet unperformed 5th act where the Corruption Party installs yet another idiot as PM and wonders why their grifting incompetence carries on unabated.

Wonder what the overall stats for the success of changing PM mid term are?

Thatcher to Major worked. So did May to Johnson. Did any others?

(My working theory is that those changes addressed specific soluble problems; the Poll Tax and the Brexit impasse respectively. Changing PM because the incumbent in a bit rubbish or shopworn... rather less so.)

BartholomewRoberts

I'm curious how this is considered pro motorist?

For trains the question is how many hundreds of billions should be spent on new tracks to build capacity.

For motorists the idea of being pro is apparently to merely not be actively hostile, and to fix potholes?

That's just neutral, that's not pro. Want to be pro motorist, then let's talk about some long overdue investment in new roads etc rather than simply fixing potholes in roads in our network that last had significant upgrades fifty years ago when our population was considerably lower?

RochdalePioneers

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I think we need to stop questioning just how bad Sunak is, as if he is something in isolation. Go forward 20 years and historians will be considering the May Johnson Truss Sunak debacle as acts in a single play. And potentially the as yet unperformed 5th act where the Corruption Party installs yet another idiot as PM and wonders why their grifting incompetence carries on unabated.

Wonder what the overall stats for the success of changing PM mid term are?

Thatcher to Major worked. So did May to Johnson. Did any others?

(My working theory is that those changes addressed specific soluble problems; the Poll Tax and the Brexit impasse respectively. Changing PM because the incumbent in a bit rubbish or shopworn... rather less so.)

Johnson won a big majority - a success for the party. They were able to drive through his "oven-ready Brexit deal". Though I would expect future historians to argue that this was all part of the chaotic collapse of the party in this 4 (or 5?) Act play.

Johnson was a disaster for the party, majority or not.

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

If the Tories get just 48:39 of the voters on this, they would be back in the 40s!

Sean_F

O/T the ONS has now concluded the economy is 1.8% bigger than it was pre-pandemic, rather than 0.5% smaller. Growth for Q.1 was revised to 0.3%.

Getting the numbers right matters, when it comes to setting monetary policy, and in terms of people making investment decisions, so it’s a problem (of long-standing) that the ONS keeps underestimating growth.

Foxy

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I think we need to stop questioning just how bad Sunak is, as if he is something in isolation. Go forward 20 years and historians will be considering the May Johnson Truss Sunak debacle as acts in a single play. And potentially the as yet unperformed 5th act where the Corruption Party installs yet another idiot as PM and wonders why their grifting incompetence carries on unabated.

Wonder what the overall stats for the success of changing PM mid term are?

Thatcher to Major worked. So did May to Johnson. Did any others?

(My working theory is that those changes addressed specific soluble problems; the Poll Tax and the Brexit impasse respectively. Changing PM because the incumbent in a bit rubbish or shopworn... rather less so.)

Chamberlain to Churchill (fall of France) and Eden to Macmillan (Suez Crisis) add to your thesis.

Taz

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

I think this will help a bit. Often measures seen as anti motorist are just brought in and imposed with little consultation or discussion. Usually aided and abetted by happy clappy pieces in the tame local media and local TV.

Outside of the so called metropolitan bubble I don’t think this will do them any harm in the towns and the boroughs.

Or anti=pedestrian. I fail to see how anyone thinks this cycle path and footpath are any good. They say they''re going to fix the worst patches, but you can't really get two pushchairs to pass even where there is no street furniture. As for people in wheelchairs...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-66934308

That’s crazy. Who on earth signed that off.

Durham council have put some cycle paths in which make absolutely no sense whatsoever. The council had a budget allocated from central govt so they used it rather than lose it. With little thought. Which is bizarre as Some of the cycling provision in Durham is good and rather well thought out.

Chris

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I think we need to stop questioning just how bad Sunak is, as if he is something in isolation. Go forward 20 years and historians will be considering the May Johnson Truss Sunak debacle as acts in a single play. And potentially the as yet unperformed 5th act where the Corruption Party installs yet another idiot as PM and wonders why their grifting incompetence carries on unabated.

Wonder what the overall stats for the success of changing PM mid term are?

Thatcher to Major worked. So did May to Johnson. Did any others?

(My working theory is that those changes addressed specific soluble problems; the Poll Tax and the Brexit impasse respectively. Changing PM because the incumbent in a bit rubbish or shopworn... rather less so.)

Isn't the only other successful change since the war Eden to Macmillan? (Excluding Eden as the election immediately followed his succession.)

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

The proportion opposed is still well above their poll rating, which I guess explains Sunak’s thinking.

Foxy

Sean_F said:

O/T the ONS has now concluded the economy is 1.8% bigger than it was pre-pandemic, rather than 0.5% smaller. Growth for Q.1 was revised to 0.3%.

Getting the numbers right matters, when it comes to setting monetary policy, and in terms of people making investment decisions, so it’s a problem (of long-standing) that the ONS keeps underestimating growth.

That is a very selective reporting of the latest revisions. The other 5 quarters of '22 and '23 had no change at all, so were spot on with the original figures.

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1707636332833456540?t=bVWukEtd2bo_Rr3VHuE_sQ&s=19

Chris

Chris said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I think we need to stop questioning just how bad Sunak is, as if he is something in isolation. Go forward 20 years and historians will be considering the May Johnson Truss Sunak debacle as acts in a single play. And potentially the as yet unperformed 5th act where the Corruption Party installs yet another idiot as PM and wonders why their grifting incompetence carries on unabated.

Wonder what the overall stats for the success of changing PM mid term are?

Thatcher to Major worked. So did May to Johnson. Did any others?

(My working theory is that those changes addressed specific soluble problems; the Poll Tax and the Brexit impasse respectively. Changing PM because the incumbent in a bit rubbish or shopworn... rather less so.)

Isn't the only other successful change since the war Eden to Macmillan? (Excluding Eden as the election immediately followed his succession.)

Given that Major's survival was a surprise and Johnson's victory was such a special case, the portents aren't good.

Sean_F

Foxy said:

Sean_F said:

O/T the ONS has now concluded the economy is 1.8% bigger than it was pre-pandemic, rather than 0.5% smaller. Growth for Q.1 was revised to 0.3%.

Getting the numbers right matters, when it comes to setting monetary policy, and in terms of people making investment decisions, so it’s a problem (of long-standing) that the ONS keeps underestimating growth.

That is a very selective reporting of the latest revisions. The other 5 quarters of '22 and '23 had no change at all, so we're spot on with the original figures.

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1707636332833456540?t=bVWukEtd2bo_Rr3VHuE_sQ&s=19

Nothing selective about it at all. A change of 2.3% seems statistically significant to me.

Nigelb

JosiasJessop said:

Monksfield said:

The tragedy of Sunak’s courting of Mr Toad is that it demonstrates the utter inability of modern Conservatism to grapple with real world problems and show a degree of leadership and innovation in tackling them. It’s a pitch to the past.

Calling drivers 'Mr Toad' is showing you have no interest in drivers, and people who have to rely on cars.

I mean, I'd never refer to keen cyclists as 'Pepparami in lycra'...

Not 'drivers' (of which I'm one) but the subset to which this nonsense might appeal.

Foxy

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I think we need to stop questioning just how bad Sunak is, as if he is something in isolation. Go forward 20 years and historians will be considering the May Johnson Truss Sunak debacle as acts in a single play. And potentially the as yet unperformed 5th act where the Corruption Party installs yet another idiot as PM and wonders why their grifting incompetence carries on unabated.

Wonder what the overall stats for the success of changing PM mid term are?

Thatcher to Major worked. So did May to Johnson. Did any others?

(My working theory is that those changes addressed specific soluble problems; the Poll Tax and the Brexit impasse respectively. Changing PM because the incumbent in a bit rubbish or shopworn... rather less so.)

Johnson won a big majority - a success for the party. They were able to drive through his "oven-ready Brexit deal". Though I would expect future historians to argue that this was all part of the chaotic collapse of the party in this 4 (or 5?) Act play.

Johnson was a disaster for the party, majority or not.

Good to see a Tory candidate predicting Rejoin in the Telegraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/26/james-cracknell-predicts-britain-will-rejoin-eu/

Cyclefree

You know how bad news comes in threes.

Well 2 pieces of bad news yesterday: son lost job after challenging health & safety conditions at work during recent high temperatures - people fainting etc (appealing but holds out little hope so looking for other jobs) and someone v dear to us has been diagnosed with very early chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia. Bugger.

Dread what today will bring. Everything seemed to be going ok .... I should have realised it wouldn't last.

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

That was in July 22 and long before it became law in Wales

The controversy continues unabated in Wales but in the last few days speeds in 20mph zones have increased to circa 25mph and in some cases back near 30mph unless a driver is following the 20mph when the traffic soon backs up

The legislation has its place, but the implementation is the issue here in Wales no more so than the difference between Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Gwynedd) and in Delyn and Alyn and Deeside as explained in this article

I expect changes will be made by LA's but it is a live issue here and needs sensible compromise

The one Welsh county where 20mph backlash is muted

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/part-wales-not-seeing-20mph-27798570#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

Nigelb

SouthamObserver said:

Motorist is such a 20th century term. It always makes me think of blokes who wear chamois leather gloves when they get behind the wheel of their Rovers...

Isn't that who Rishi is talking to ?

Stuartinromford

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I think we need to stop questioning just how bad Sunak is, as if he is something in isolation. Go forward 20 years and historians will be considering the May Johnson Truss Sunak debacle as acts in a single play. And potentially the as yet unperformed 5th act where the Corruption Party installs yet another idiot as PM and wonders why their grifting incompetence carries on unabated.

Wonder what the overall stats for the success of changing PM mid term are?

Thatcher to Major worked. So did May to Johnson. Did any others?

(My working theory is that those changes addressed specific soluble problems; the Poll Tax and the Brexit impasse respectively. Changing PM because the incumbent in a bit rubbish or shopworn... rather less so.)

Johnson won a big majority - a success for the party. They were able to drive through his "oven-ready Brexit deal". Though I would expect future historians to argue that this was all part of the chaotic collapse of the party in this 4 (or 5?) Act play.

Johnson was a disaster for the party, majority or not.

Good to see a Tory candidate predicting Rejoin in the Telegraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/26/james-cracknell-predicts-britain-will-rejoin-eu/

That's a story that will cause a row.

Foxy

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

Sean_F said:

O/T the ONS has now concluded the economy is 1.8% bigger than it was pre-pandemic, rather than 0.5% smaller. Growth for Q.1 was revised to 0.3%.

Getting the numbers right matters, when it comes to setting monetary policy, and in terms of people making investment decisions, so it’s a problem (of long-standing) that the ONS keeps underestimating growth.

That is a very selective reporting of the latest revisions. The other 5 quarters of '22 and '23 had no change at all, so we're spot on with the original figures.

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1707636332833456540?t=bVWukEtd2bo_Rr3VHuE_sQ&s=19

Nothing selective about it at all. A change of 2.3% seems statistically significant to me.

You were implying that the ONS figures were systematically unreliable.

The large revision you refer to was the pandemic, a very atypical time.

Also the interesting implication of the revision for the pandemic years was that the lockdown was less economically damaging than thought.

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

That was in July 22 and long before it became law in Wales

The controversy continues unabated in Wales but in the last few days speeds in 20mph zones have increased to circa 25mph and in some cases back near 30mph unless a driver is following the 20mph when the traffic soon backs up

The legislation has its place, but the implementation is the issue here in Wales no more so than the difference between Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Gwynedd) and in Delyn and Alyn and Deeside as explained in this article

I expect changes will be made by LA's but it is a live issue here and needs sensible compromise

The one Welsh county where 20mph backlash is muted

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/part-wales-not-seeing-20mph-27798570#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

Is the Fire Service still enforcing the ban?

TheScreamingEagles

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I think we need to stop questioning just how bad Sunak is, as if he is something in isolation. Go forward 20 years and historians will be considering the May Johnson Truss Sunak debacle as acts in a single play. And potentially the as yet unperformed 5th act where the Corruption Party installs yet another idiot as PM and wonders why their grifting incompetence carries on unabated.

Wonder what the overall stats for the success of changing PM mid term are?

Thatcher to Major worked. So did May to Johnson. Did any others?

(My working theory is that those changes addressed specific soluble problems; the Poll Tax and the Brexit impasse respectively. Changing PM because the incumbent in a bit rubbish or shopworn... rather less so.)

Johnson won a big majority - a success for the party. They were able to drive through his "oven-ready Brexit deal". Though I would expect future historians to argue that this was all part of the chaotic collapse of the party in this 4 (or 5?) Act play.

Johnson was a disaster for the party, majority or not.

Good to see a Tory candidate predicting Rejoin in the Telegraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/26/james-cracknell-predicts-britain-will-rejoin-eu/

I’ve been predicting for a while that eventually the Tory party will advocate Rejoin by the circa 2034 election.

Foxy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

That was in July 22 and long before it became law in Wales

The controversy continues unabated in Wales but in the last few days speeds in 20mph zones have increased to circa 25mph and in some cases back near 30mph unless a driver is following the 20mph when the traffic soon backs up

The legislation has its place, but the implementation is the issue here in Wales no more so than the difference between Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Gwynedd) and in Delyn and Alyn and Deeside as explained in this article

I expect changes will be made by LA's but it is a live issue here and needs sensible compromise

The one Welsh county where 20mph backlash is muted

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/part-wales-not-seeing-20mph-27798570#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

Is the Fire Service still enforcing the ban?

Hose suggesting that?

TimS

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I think we need to stop questioning just how bad Sunak is, as if he is something in isolation. Go forward 20 years and historians will be considering the May Johnson Truss Sunak debacle as acts in a single play. And potentially the as yet unperformed 5th act where the Corruption Party installs yet another idiot as PM and wonders why their grifting incompetence carries on unabated.

Wonder what the overall stats for the success of changing PM mid term are?

Thatcher to Major worked. So did May to Johnson. Did any others?

(My working theory is that those changes addressed specific soluble problems; the Poll Tax and the Brexit impasse respectively. Changing PM because the incumbent in a bit rubbish or shopworn... rather less so.)

Johnson won a big majority - a success for the party. They were able to drive through his "oven-ready Brexit deal". Though I would expect future historians to argue that this was all part of the chaotic collapse of the party in this 4 (or 5?) Act play.

Johnson was a disaster for the party, majority or not.

Good to see a Tory candidate predicting Rejoin in the Telegraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/26/james-cracknell-predicts-britain-will-rejoin-eu/

That's a story that will cause a row.

Not having a Telegraph subscription I couldn’t see if he was favourable towards to idea, of warning about this as a threat. Presumably quite positive?

Taz

David Lammy owned, or pwned if you are young and trendy, by community notes on X

https://x.com/davidlammy/status/1707294507341849026?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ

JosiasJessop

Cyclefree said:

You know how bad news comes in threes.

Well 2 pieces of bad news yesterday: son lost job after challenging health & safety conditions at work during recent high temperatures - people fainting etc (appealing but holds out little hope so looking for other jobs) and someone v dear to us has been diagnosed with very early chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia. Bugger.

Dread what today will bring. Everything seemed to be going ok .... I should have realised it wouldn't last.

Sorry to hear that, and I hope the streak of bad news ends.

Foxy

TimS said:

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I think we need to stop questioning just how bad Sunak is, as if he is something in isolation. Go forward 20 years and historians will be considering the May Johnson Truss Sunak debacle as acts in a single play. And potentially the as yet unperformed 5th act where the Corruption Party installs yet another idiot as PM and wonders why their grifting incompetence carries on unabated.

Wonder what the overall stats for the success of changing PM mid term are?

Thatcher to Major worked. So did May to Johnson. Did any others?

(My working theory is that those changes addressed specific soluble problems; the Poll Tax and the Brexit impasse respectively. Changing PM because the incumbent in a bit rubbish or shopworn... rather less so.)

Johnson won a big majority - a success for the party. They were able to drive through his "oven-ready Brexit deal". Though I would expect future historians to argue that this was all part of the chaotic collapse of the party in this 4 (or 5?) Act play.

Johnson was a disaster for the party, majority or not.

Good to see a Tory candidate predicting Rejoin in the Telegraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/26/james-cracknell-predicts-britain-will-rejoin-eu/

That's a story that will cause a row.

Not having a Telegraph subscription I couldn’t see if he was favourable towards to idea, of warning about this as a threat. Presumably quite positive?

Yes, quite positive about it in the interview, but sees it a generation away.

I think he is unlikely to get elected though. On current polling Colchester looks a clear Labour gain.

Taz

Cyclefree said:

You know how bad news comes in threes.

Well 2 pieces of bad news yesterday: son lost job after challenging health & safety conditions at work during recent high temperatures - people fainting etc (appealing but holds out little hope so looking for other jobs) and someone v dear to us has been diagnosed with very early chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia. Bugger.

Dread what today will bring. Everything seemed to be going ok .... I should have realised it wouldn't last.

Sorry to hear your bad news. Can you son not challenge this. Most organisations have rules to protect whistleblowers.

Taz

Domestic Rugby shambles rolls on. Jersey Reds are no more, gone out of business.

Their only chance is securing funding imminently.

JosiasJessop

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

I think this will help a bit. Often measures seen as anti motorist are just brought in and imposed with little consultation or discussion. Usually aided and abetted by happy clappy pieces in the tame local media and local TV.

Outside of the so called metropolitan bubble I don’t think this will do them any harm in the towns and the boroughs.

Or anti=pedestrian. I fail to see how anyone thinks this cycle path and footpath are any good. They say they''re going to fix the worst patches, but you can't really get two pushchairs to pass even where there is no street furniture. As for people in wheelchairs...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-66934308

That’s crazy. Who on earth signed that off.

Durham council have put some cycle paths in which make absolutely no sense whatsoever. The council had a budget allocated from central govt so they used it rather than lose it. With little thought. Which is bizarre as Some of the cycling provision in Durham is good and rather well thought out.

Note that pedestrians are below cyclists in that layout, in terms of space available. In fact, they're probably given less space than the greenery...

And note the divider between footpath and cyclepath is a solid white line, which will have the angry cyclists insisting that any pedestrian who dares to step over into 'their' space be arrested immediately...

SouthamObserver

If you can access this FT piece on the fool’s errand that is policy making by polling, you should:

https://www.ft.com/content/4ee301ce-e6ba-45ab-8fd5-0cbe3e5c5980

People may not like the principle of inheritance tax, for example, but that is very different to wanting to abolish it - or even reduce the thresholds. And on immigration - people may say there is too much, but ask about the issue on a sector by sector basis and only a minority want it reduced. And so on.

It turns out that what seems to matter most is competence. Whoever would have thought it?

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

That was in July 22 and long before it became law in Wales

The controversy continues unabated in Wales but in the last few days speeds in 20mph zones have increased to circa 25mph and in some cases back near 30mph unless a driver is following the 20mph when the traffic soon backs up

The legislation has its place, but the implementation is the issue here in Wales no more so than the difference between Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Gwynedd) and in Delyn and Alyn and Deeside as explained in this article

I expect changes will be made by LA's but it is a live issue here and needs sensible compromise

The one Welsh county where 20mph backlash is muted

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/part-wales-not-seeing-20mph-27798570#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

Is the Fire Service still enforcing the ban?

Why not read the article which provides a commentary on the present controversy than quote an out of date poll

Furthermore, as I said enforcement is not taking place outside the 20mph zones around schools that were 20mph long before the legislation

It is also interesting that the article did refer to the political landscape that the parts of North Wales that voted for the Labour Welsh Government at the Senedd election in 2021 are the most rebellious on this issue

RochdalePioneers

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

That was in July 22 and long before it became law in Wales

The controversy continues unabated in Wales but in the last few days speeds in 20mph zones have increased to circa 25mph and in some cases back near 30mph unless a driver is following the 20mph when the traffic soon backs up

The legislation has its place, but the implementation is the issue here in Wales no more so than the difference between Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Gwynedd) and in Delyn and Alyn and Deeside as explained in this article

I expect changes will be made by LA's but it is a live issue here and needs sensible compromise

The one Welsh county where 20mph backlash is muted

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/part-wales-not-seeing-20mph-27798570#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

Is the Fire Service still enforcing the ban?

Why not read the article which provides a commentary on the present controversy than quote an out of date poll

Furthermore, as I said enforcement is not taking place outside the 20mph zones around schools that were 20mph long before the legislation

It is also interesting that the article did refer to the political landscape that the parts of North Wales that voted for the Labour Welsh Government at the Senedd election in 2021 are the most rebellious on this issue

Drakeford's 20mph = Starmer's Curry

And we all know how that one ended.

Casino_Royale

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic;

We pretty much all seem to be in agreement that large infrastructure projects cost *way* too much. Yet I think recent conversations seem to indicate one reason for this.

Apparently road schemes need to fully cater for the pepparami-in-lycra brigade and have a massive cycle network alongside them that they can whizz along on at 40 MPH.

Apparently railways should not touch any 'ancient' woodland, and instead be buried thousands of metres underground.

It's easy to take something we care about and say that a scheme has to preserve or enhance it. The problem is we all have things that we want to preserve and protect, and therefore the scheme has to pay for that, even if the things are f-all to do with roads or railways.

Say I want to protect the Lesser Farting MarsuLizard, one of which was reported as being seen by a pond by a drunken cleric in 1853. It just so happens I run a charity to help protect and raise awareness of the Lesser Farting MarsuLizard, and so I insist that the pond and all its environment is moved away from the scheme - and of course, I'll need funding for providing my expertise.

Now, I'd argue that many of these are good ideas, and ideally would be catered for. But they also cost. And a few million here; a few million there; and we soon reach significant sums.

The problem isn't the funding or delivery- it's the process. Braver and more consistent political leadership would deliver more infrastructure, faster, and at a fairer price:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fail-to-build-and-britain-will-hit-the-buffers-2j7hlj8g9

OldKingCole

Good morning everyone.
As long as I can remember there have been increasing restrictions on motorists, and a consequent fall in the numbers killed or severely injured on the roads. It would appear that the present government, or at least its leader thinks this is a Bad Thing!

And best wishes to Ms Cyclfree for a swift end to the run of bad luck; preferably by her son, finding another job which suits him. I’m not sure that winning his appeal, desirable or not, will in the long term break to his advantage with that employer!

Taz

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

I think this will help a bit. Often measures seen as anti motorist are just brought in and imposed with little consultation or discussion. Usually aided and abetted by happy clappy pieces in the tame local media and local TV.

Outside of the so called metropolitan bubble I don’t think this will do them any harm in the towns and the boroughs.

Or anti=pedestrian. I fail to see how anyone thinks this cycle path and footpath are any good. They say they''re going to fix the worst patches, but you can't really get two pushchairs to pass even where there is no street furniture. As for people in wheelchairs...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-66934308

That’s crazy. Who on earth signed that off.

Durham council have put some cycle paths in which make absolutely no sense whatsoever. The council had a budget allocated from central govt so they used it rather than lose it. With little thought. Which is bizarre as Some of the cycling provision in Durham is good and rather well thought out.

Note that pedestrians are below cyclists in that layout, in terms of space available. In fact, they're probably given less space than the greenery...

And note the divider between footpath and cyclepath is a solid white line, which will have the angry cyclists insisting that any pedestrian who dares to step over into 'their' space be arrested immediately...

Especially if the pedestrians are listening to music and on their iPhones.

Under the latest Highway Code pedestrians now have priority. This doesn’t just affect motorists if impacts cyclists too.

Nigelb

.

Cyclefree said:

You know how bad news comes in threes.

Well 2 pieces of bad news yesterday: son lost job after challenging health & safety conditions at work during recent high temperatures - people fainting etc (appealing but holds out little hope so looking for other jobs) and someone v dear to us has been diagnosed with very early chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia. Bugger.

Dread what today will bring. Everything seemed to be going ok .... I should have realised it wouldn't last.

Really sorry to hear that.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

O/T the ONS has now concluded the economy is 1.8% bigger than it was pre-pandemic, rather than 0.5% smaller. Growth for Q.1 was revised to 0.3%.

Getting the numbers right matters, when it comes to setting monetary policy, and in terms of people making investment decisions, so it’s a problem (of long-standing) that the ONS keeps underestimating growth.

It's probably institutional.

They'd be flamed the other way round, rather than just very mildly embarrassed, so they keep undercooking it to be on the safe side.

Incentives drive behaviours.

Big_G_NorthWales

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

That was in July 22 and long before it became law in Wales

The controversy continues unabated in Wales but in the last few days speeds in 20mph zones have increased to circa 25mph and in some cases back near 30mph unless a driver is following the 20mph when the traffic soon backs up

The legislation has its place, but the implementation is the issue here in Wales no more so than the difference between Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Gwynedd) and in Delyn and Alyn and Deeside as explained in this article

I expect changes will be made by LA's but it is a live issue here and needs sensible compromise

The one Welsh county where 20mph backlash is muted

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/part-wales-not-seeing-20mph-27798570#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

Is the Fire Service still enforcing the ban?

Why not read the article which provides a commentary on the present controversy than quote an out of date poll

Furthermore, as I said enforcement is not taking place outside the 20mph zones around schools that were 20mph long before the legislation

It is also interesting that the article did refer to the political landscape that the parts of North Wales that voted for the Labour Welsh Government at the Senedd election in 2021 are the most rebellious on this issue

Drakeford's 20mph = Starmer's Curry

And we all know how that one ended.

Have you read the article ?

SouthamObserver

The problem with basing policy on headline poll numbers:
https://x.com/spajw/status/1707643656780263748?s=46&t=rw5lNVUgmRPVyKpxfV_pPQ

Casino_Royale

Cyclefree said:

You know how bad news comes in threes.

Well 2 pieces of bad news yesterday: son lost job after challenging health & safety conditions at work during recent high temperatures - people fainting etc (appealing but holds out little hope so looking for other jobs) and someone v dear to us has been diagnosed with very early chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia. Bugger.

Dread what today will bring. Everything seemed to be going ok .... I should have realised it wouldn't last.

Very sorry to hear this, Cyclefree.

Hope things get better soon.

Foxy

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

I think this will help a bit. Often measures seen as anti motorist are just brought in and imposed with little consultation or discussion. Usually aided and abetted by happy clappy pieces in the tame local media and local TV.

Outside of the so called metropolitan bubble I don’t think this will do them any harm in the towns and the boroughs.

Or anti=pedestrian. I fail to see how anyone thinks this cycle path and footpath are any good. They say they''re going to fix the worst patches, but you can't really get two pushchairs to pass even where there is no street furniture. As for people in wheelchairs...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-66934308

That’s crazy. Who on earth signed that off.

Durham council have put some cycle paths in which make absolutely no sense whatsoever. The council had a budget allocated from central govt so they used it rather than lose it. With little thought. Which is bizarre as Some of the cycling provision in Durham is good and rather well thought out.

Note that pedestrians are below cyclists in that layout, in terms of space available. In fact, they're probably given less space than the greenery...

And note the divider between footpath and cyclepath is a solid white line, which will have the angry cyclists insisting that any pedestrian who dares to step over into 'their' space be arrested immediately...

For cycle paths to work they need to be separated by more than a line of paint from roads or pedestrians. They need a proper kerb.

Big_G_NorthWales

Anyway the Ryder Cup is live on Sky

Europe up in 3 and tied in 1 in the opening foursomes

OldKingCole

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

I think this will help a bit. Often measures seen as anti motorist are just brought in and imposed with little consultation or discussion. Usually aided and abetted by happy clappy pieces in the tame local media and local TV.

Outside of the so called metropolitan bubble I don’t think this will do them any harm in the towns and the boroughs.

Or anti=pedestrian. I fail to see how anyone thinks this cycle path and footpath are any good. They say they''re going to fix the worst patches, but you can't really get two pushchairs to pass even where there is no street furniture. As for people in wheelchairs...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-66934308

That’s crazy. Who on earth signed that off.

Durham council have put some cycle paths in which make absolutely no sense whatsoever. The council had a budget allocated from central govt so they used it rather than lose it. With little thought. Which is bizarre as Some of the cycling provision in Durham is good and rather well thought out.

Note that pedestrians are below cyclists in that layout, in terms of space available. In fact, they're probably given less space than the greenery...

And note the divider between footpath and cyclepath is a solid white line, which will have the angry cyclists insisting that any pedestrian who dares to step over into 'their' space be arrested immediately...

Especially if the pedestrians are listening to music and on their iPhones.

Under the latest Highway Code pedestrians now have priority. This doesn’t just affect motorists if impacts cyclists too.

As someone who is now a wheelchair user, I can assure people that those who complain about Road services have no conception of how bad the paths are. Hitting a bad pothole. may mean the purchase of a new tire. Being tipped out of my wheelchair as a result of an uneven pavement could easily made my death, or at least hospitalisation!

SouthamObserver

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

That was in July 22 and long before it became law in Wales

The controversy continues unabated in Wales but in the last few days speeds in 20mph zones have increased to circa 25mph and in some cases back near 30mph unless a driver is following the 20mph when the traffic soon backs up

The legislation has its place, but the implementation is the issue here in Wales no more so than the difference between Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Gwynedd) and in Delyn and Alyn and Deeside as explained in this article

I expect changes will be made by LA's but it is a live issue here and needs sensible compromise

The one Welsh county where 20mph backlash is muted

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/part-wales-not-seeing-20mph-27798570#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

Is the Fire Service still enforcing the ban?

Why not read the article which provides a commentary on the present controversy than quote an out of date poll

Furthermore, as I said enforcement is not taking place outside the 20mph zones around schools that were 20mph long before the legislation

It is also interesting that the article did refer to the political landscape that the parts of North Wales that voted for the Labour Welsh Government at the Senedd election in 2021 are the most rebellious on this issue

Drakeford's 20mph = Starmer's Curry

And we all know how that one ended.

Campaigning against 20mph zones is one thing, but cancelling them once they’ve been introduced is politically very tough. It means you take ownership of all the serious injuries and deaths linked to the higher speed limits that you are responsible for enabling. Another reason why politics by headline polling is not smart.

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

That was in July 22 and long before it became law in Wales

The controversy continues unabated in Wales but in the last few days speeds in 20mph zones have increased to circa 25mph and in some cases back near 30mph unless a driver is following the 20mph when the traffic soon backs up

The legislation has its place, but the implementation is the issue here in Wales no more so than the difference between Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Gwynedd) and in Delyn and Alyn and Deeside as explained in this article

I expect changes will be made by LA's but it is a live issue here and needs sensible compromise

The one Welsh county where 20mph backlash is muted

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/part-wales-not-seeing-20mph-27798570#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

Is the Fire Service still enforcing the ban?

Why not read the article which provides a commentary on the present controversy than quote an out of date poll

Furthermore, as I said enforcement is not taking place outside the 20mph zones around schools that were 20mph long before the legislation

It is also interesting that the article did refer to the political landscape that the parts of North Wales that voted for the Labour Welsh Government at the Senedd election in 2021 are the most rebellious on this issue

Because you've talked an enormous amount of nonsense on this subject.

Big_G_NorthWales

OldKingCole said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

I think this will help a bit. Often measures seen as anti motorist are just brought in and imposed with little consultation or discussion. Usually aided and abetted by happy clappy pieces in the tame local media and local TV.

Outside of the so called metropolitan bubble I don’t think this will do them any harm in the towns and the boroughs.

Or anti=pedestrian. I fail to see how anyone thinks this cycle path and footpath are any good. They say they''re going to fix the worst patches, but you can't really get two pushchairs to pass even where there is no street furniture. As for people in wheelchairs...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-66934308

That’s crazy. Who on earth signed that off.

Durham council have put some cycle paths in which make absolutely no sense whatsoever. The council had a budget allocated from central govt so they used it rather than lose it. With little thought. Which is bizarre as Some of the cycling provision in Durham is good and rather well thought out.

Note that pedestrians are below cyclists in that layout, in terms of space available. In fact, they're probably given less space than the greenery...

And note the divider between footpath and cyclepath is a solid white line, which will have the angry cyclists insisting that any pedestrian who dares to step over into 'their' space be arrested immediately...

Especially if the pedestrians are listening to music and on their iPhones.

Under the latest Highway Code pedestrians now have priority. This doesn’t just affect motorists if impacts cyclists too.

As someone who is now a wheelchair user, I can assure people that those who complain about Road services have no conception of how bad the paths are. Hitting a bad pothole. may mean the purchase of a new tire. Being tipped out of my wheelchair as a result of an uneven pavement could easily made my death, or at least hospitalisation!

Good morning @OldKingCole

I liked your comment but not the possible consequences for you

TheScreamingEagles

Record tax rises over the past four years will cost the equivalent of £3,500 per household, analysis has found.

Since 2019 the Conservatives have introduced more tax rises than any other government, with the £100 billion cost bigger than anything outside wartime, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said.

Britain is making “a decisive and permanent shift to a higher-tax economy”, the think tank said in a judgment that will intensify pressure on Rishi Sunak to reverse the trend....

...The rise of 4.2 percentage points in the tax burden is comfortably bigger than that during Tony Blair’s first term, from 1997-2001, when a series of stealth taxes led to a 2.9 point increase. Margaret Thatcher’s first term from 1979-83 and Harold Wilson’s two terms from 1964-70 and 1974-76 led to rises of more than two points

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-shift-to-higher-taxes-may-never-be-reversed-msqcs3b9j

JosiasJessop

OldKingCole said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

I think this will help a bit. Often measures seen as anti motorist are just brought in and imposed with little consultation or discussion. Usually aided and abetted by happy clappy pieces in the tame local media and local TV.

Outside of the so called metropolitan bubble I don’t think this will do them any harm in the towns and the boroughs.

Or anti=pedestrian. I fail to see how anyone thinks this cycle path and footpath are any good. They say they''re going to fix the worst patches, but you can't really get two pushchairs to pass even where there is no street furniture. As for people in wheelchairs...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-66934308

That’s crazy. Who on earth signed that off.

Durham council have put some cycle paths in which make absolutely no sense whatsoever. The council had a budget allocated from central govt so they used it rather than lose it. With little thought. Which is bizarre as Some of the cycling provision in Durham is good and rather well thought out.

Note that pedestrians are below cyclists in that layout, in terms of space available. In fact, they're probably given less space than the greenery...

And note the divider between footpath and cyclepath is a solid white line, which will have the angry cyclists insisting that any pedestrian who dares to step over into 'their' space be arrested immediately...

Especially if the pedestrians are listening to music and on their iPhones.

Under the latest Highway Code pedestrians now have priority. This doesn’t just affect motorists if impacts cyclists too.

As someone who is now a wheelchair user, I can assure people that those who complain about Road services have no conception of how bad the paths are. Hitting a bad pothole. may mean the purchase of a new tire. Being tipped out of my wheelchair as a result of an uneven pavement could easily made my death, or at least hospitalisation!

That's a very good point.

IMV the problem is selfishness. I'm a car driver, and I'm unwilling to wait ten seconds to pass this cyclist safely. It's *my* ten seconds that are being stolen. I'm a cyclist, and I have the right to cycle at thirty MPH down this dual-use path - and woe betide anyone - pedestrian or cyclist - who dares impede my speed!

We are all road users, and in most cases we don't have exclusive rights to use the space available. We all need to muddle along, and realise that our fellow users might actually have rights as well. That means showing others - even pedestrians - the same sort of respect we demand for ourselves.

TheScreamingEagles

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

JosiasJessop

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

I think this will help a bit. Often measures seen as anti motorist are just brought in and imposed with little consultation or discussion. Usually aided and abetted by happy clappy pieces in the tame local media and local TV.

Outside of the so called metropolitan bubble I don’t think this will do them any harm in the towns and the boroughs.

Or anti=pedestrian. I fail to see how anyone thinks this cycle path and footpath are any good. They say they''re going to fix the worst patches, but you can't really get two pushchairs to pass even where there is no street furniture. As for people in wheelchairs...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-66934308

That’s crazy. Who on earth signed that off.

Durham council have put some cycle paths in which make absolutely no sense whatsoever. The council had a budget allocated from central govt so they used it rather than lose it. With little thought. Which is bizarre as Some of the cycling provision in Durham is good and rather well thought out.

Note that pedestrians are below cyclists in that layout, in terms of space available. In fact, they're probably given less space than the greenery...

And note the divider between footpath and cyclepath is a solid white line, which will have the angry cyclists insisting that any pedestrian who dares to step over into 'their' space be arrested immediately...

For cycle paths to work they need to be separated by more than a line of paint from roads or pedestrians. They need a proper kerb.

Put simply: for there to be proper cycle paths, there needs to be more space so that all potential users are catered for. And in that example, there is not enough space for that to be provided, so a fairly awful kluge is created.

Ratters

SouthamObserver said:

If you can access this FT piece on the fool’s errand that is policy making by polling, you should:

https://www.ft.com/content/4ee301ce-e6ba-45ab-8fd5-0cbe3e5c5980

People may not like the principle of inheritance tax, for example, but that is very different to wanting to abolish it - or even reduce the thresholds. And on immigration - people may say there is too much, but ask about the issue on a sector by sector basis and only a minority want it reduced. And so on.

It turns out that what seems to matter most is competence. Whoever would have thought it?

The first comment there is spot on: leadership in politics is providing some coherent vision/platform for people to buy into, rather than engaging on policy detail.

The Tories are portraying themselves as the anti-immigration, anti-green policy, anti-rail infrastructure, despite spending over a decade in power with high immigration, promoting green policies and having started the infrastructure they are now cancelling.

I'm sure there is a constituency for such a change in direction, but personally it feels like reversing course on areas where the government were trying to have a positive impact, while doing little to address other areas of underinvestment. It isn't a compelling vision.

Labour's vision at present consists of be less shit than the Tories, which is a hurdle they are clearing comfortably by doing nothing, such that they will likely get a majority. So the question is whether they take the easy route in power, or invest for the future such that they don't end up on the same place.

Foxy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

LD back as the third party too.

I think 196 seats for the Tories would be a good result for them.

TheScreamingEagles

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

LD back as the third party too.

I think 196 seats for the Tories would be a good result for them.

It is a really good poll for the Tories as Jacob Rees-Mogg loses his seat.

Sean_F

Foxy said:

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

Sean_F said:

O/T the ONS has now concluded the economy is 1.8% bigger than it was pre-pandemic, rather than 0.5% smaller. Growth for Q.1 was revised to 0.3%.

Getting the numbers right matters, when it comes to setting monetary policy, and in terms of people making investment decisions, so it’s a problem (of long-standing) that the ONS keeps underestimating growth.

That is a very selective reporting of the latest revisions. The other 5 quarters of '22 and '23 had no change at all, so we're spot on with the original figures.

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1707636332833456540?t=bVWukEtd2bo_Rr3VHuE_sQ&s=19

Nothing selective about it at all. A change of 2.3% seems statistically significant to me.

You were implying that the ONS figures were systematically unreliable.

The large revision you refer to was the pandemic, a very atypical time.

Also the interesting implication of the revision for the pandemic years was that the lockdown was less economically damaging than thought.

They are. It turned out the economy grew at twice the rate, between 1985-89, that the ONS initially recorded. That had really bad policy consequences,

Remember too, Tim's glee about "Osborne's triple dip recession", in 2012, which turned out to be growth of 1.6% in the end.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

That does seem especially disastrous for the Conservatives, right now. A party can survive that level of defeat.

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

That was in July 22 and long before it became law in Wales

The controversy continues unabated in Wales but in the last few days speeds in 20mph zones have increased to circa 25mph and in some cases back near 30mph unless a driver is following the 20mph when the traffic soon backs up

The legislation has its place, but the implementation is the issue here in Wales no more so than the difference between Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Gwynedd) and in Delyn and Alyn and Deeside as explained in this article

I expect changes will be made by LA's but it is a live issue here and needs sensible compromise

The one Welsh county where 20mph backlash is muted

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/part-wales-not-seeing-20mph-27798570#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

Is the Fire Service still enforcing the ban?

Why not read the article which provides a commentary on the present controversy than quote an out of date poll

Furthermore, as I said enforcement is not taking place outside the 20mph zones around schools that were 20mph long before the legislation

It is also interesting that the article did refer to the political landscape that the parts of North Wales that voted for the Labour Welsh Government at the Senedd election in 2021 are the most rebellious on this issue

Because you've talked an enormous amount of nonsense on this subject.

And a lot of common sense

Furthermore the article gets to the hub of the controversy and provides the resolution

RochdalePioneers

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

LD back as the third party too.

I think 196 seats for the Tories would be a good result for them.

It is a really good poll for the Tories as Jacob Rees-Mogg loses his seat.

36 feels low for us. I can see a succession of blue wall seats falling like dominos on the night. Davey plans a "laser-like" targeting of seats and after the absurd chaos of the 2019 election I think he is right to do so.

But in a change election the tidal surge sweeps way past the targets...

northern_monkey

Morning everyone

Not sure of the etiquette of this, but you don’t ask you don’t get, so…

Tomorrow I’m doing the Yorkshire Three Peaks Challenge. 24 miles and 5200ft worth of climbing over Yorkshire’s three highest peaks in under 12 hours. I, and around 20 other willing victims, are doing it memory of a friend of mine’s son, Isaac, who died in April at four months old after enduring four open heart surgeries.

We’re raising money for a charity called the Children’s Heart Surgery Fund, which supports the Leeds Congenital Heart Unit at Leeds General Infirmary.

I know times are hard for many, but if you would like to donate you can do so here: https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/isaac-phoenix-davison?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=fundraising&utm_content=isaac-phoenix-davison&utm_campaign=pfp-whatsapp&utm_term=a5d00617328744428695a5496d68e55f

I might be cheeky and drop this link in again later and tomorrow, so please bear with me. If you’re lucky and the phone signal holds up I might even post some pictures of trig points and heavy autumnal rainfall on bleak Yorkshire fells.

Sean_F

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

LD back as the third party too.

I think 196 seats for the Tories would be a good result for them.

It is a really good poll for the Tories as Jacob Rees-Mogg loses his seat.

36 feels low for us. I can see a succession of blue wall seats falling like dominos on the night. Davey plans a "laser-like" targeting of seats and after the absurd chaos of the 2019 election I think he is right to do so.

But in a change election the tidal surge sweeps way past the targets...

36 would be very good for the Lib Dems. John Curtice thinks 30 is the maximum.

TimS

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

LD back as the third party too.

I think 196 seats for the Tories would be a good result for them.

196 seats would be an excellent result for them if they fell to 26.5% as it implies their vote would lose almost no efficiency. Under FPTP that’s close to a miracle.

That’s 7.4 seats per percentage vote share. They currently have 8.1 seats per percentage share.

Largely because the pollsters have Labour on only 39% in this MRP.

BartholomewRoberts

Sean_F said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

LD back as the third party too.

I think 196 seats for the Tories would be a good result for them.

It is a really good poll for the Tories as Jacob Rees-Mogg loses his seat.

36 feels low for us. I can see a succession of blue wall seats falling like dominos on the night. Davey plans a "laser-like" targeting of seats and after the absurd chaos of the 2019 election I think he is right to do so.

But in a change election the tidal surge sweeps way past the targets...

36 would be very good for the Lib Dems. John Curtice thinks 30 is the maximum.

I don't see why.

They went from ~50 to ~10 in one election. Why can't the same happen in reverse?

It all depends upon how people vote. The biggest problem is they're not appearing positively appealing, not that there's a ceiling.

Sean_F

northern_monkey said:

Morning everyone

Not sure of the etiquette of this, but you don’t ask you don’t get, so…

Tomorrow I’m doing the Yorkshire Three Peaks Challenge. 24 miles and 5200ft worth of climbing over Yorkshire’s three highest peaks in under 12 hours. I, and around 20 other willing victims, are doing it memory of a friend of mine’s son, Isaac, who died in April at four months old after enduring four open heart surgeries.

We’re raising money for a charity called the Children’s Heart Surgery Fund, which supports the Leeds Congenital Heart Unit at Leeds General Infirmary.

I know times are hard for many, but if you would like to donate you can do so here: https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/isaac-phoenix-davison?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=fundraising&utm_content=isaac-phoenix-davison&utm_campaign=pfp-whatsapp&utm_term=a5d00617328744428695a5496d68e55f

I might be cheeky and drop this link in again later and tomorrow, so please bear with me. If you’re lucky and the phone signal holds up I might even post some pictures of trig points and heavy autumnal rainfall on bleak Yorkshire fells.

Okay. Best of luck. I'll be honest, and say that the third peak is incredibly difficult to achieve.

Carnyx

Nigelb said:

SouthamObserver said:

Motorist is such a 20th century term. It always makes me think of blokes who wear chamois leather gloves when they get behind the wheel of their Rovers...

Isn't that who Rishi is talking to ?

Exactly. The ones who were doing it in the 1960s and 1970s. And the prematurely senile ones who have signed up to that vision.

And we all know why they wear backless gloves.

bondegezou

Welsh voting reform: https://nation.cymru/news/tory-ms-warns-closed-list-system-will-weaken-democracy-in-wales/

I agree with the Conservative MS here that open lists are a better system.

Stuartinromford

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

That was in July 22 and long before it became law in Wales

The controversy continues unabated in Wales but in the last few days speeds in 20mph zones have increased to circa 25mph and in some cases back near 30mph unless a driver is following the 20mph when the traffic soon backs up

The legislation has its place, but the implementation is the issue here in Wales no more so than the difference between Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Gwynedd) and in Delyn and Alyn and Deeside as explained in this article

I expect changes will be made by LA's but it is a live issue here and needs sensible compromise

The one Welsh county where 20mph backlash is muted

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/part-wales-not-seeing-20mph-27798570#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

Is the Fire Service still enforcing the ban?

Why not read the article which provides a commentary on the present controversy than quote an out of date poll

Furthermore, as I said enforcement is not taking place outside the 20mph zones around schools that were 20mph long before the legislation

It is also interesting that the article did refer to the political landscape that the parts of North Wales that voted for the Labour Welsh Government at the Senedd election in 2021 are the most rebellious on this issue

Drakeford's 20mph = Starmer's Curry

And we all know how that one ended.

Have you read the article ?

So, in some places the number of petition signatories is nearly twenty percent of the electorate.

We either have a pre-revolutionary situation here...

... Or someone is fiddling the petition by putting in postcodes that aren't theirs.

Sean_F

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sean_F said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

LD back as the third party too.

I think 196 seats for the Tories would be a good result for them.

It is a really good poll for the Tories as Jacob Rees-Mogg loses his seat.

36 feels low for us. I can see a succession of blue wall seats falling like dominos on the night. Davey plans a "laser-like" targeting of seats and after the absurd chaos of the 2019 election I think he is right to do so.

But in a change election the tidal surge sweeps way past the targets...

36 would be very good for the Lib Dems. John Curtice thinks 30 is the maximum.

I don't see why.

They went from ~50 to ~10 in one election. Why can't the same happen in reverse?

It all depends upon how people vote. The biggest problem is they're not appearing positively appealing, not that there's a ceiling.

Their vote share fell by almost two thirds, in 2015. Right now, it's still at the level of 2019. A big drop in the Conservative vote share will certainly gain them seats, but not a huge number.

Foxy

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

LD back as the third party too.

I think 196 seats for the Tories would be a good result for them.

It is a really good poll for the Tories as Jacob Rees-Mogg loses his seat.

36 feels low for us. I can see a succession of blue wall seats falling like dominos on the night. Davey plans a "laser-like" targeting of seats and after the absurd chaos of the 2019 election I think he is right to do so.

But in a change election the tidal surge sweeps way past the targets...

I am doubtful that it will be more than 36, and it likely will be less.

In 1997 a lot of LD and Lab seats were won unexpectedly, but having been active in the 1997 election the feel is very different now. The Tories are looking very dog eared and fixated on internal battles the same as 1997, but there isn't the same mood of optimism for Starmer that there was for Blair.

Fairliered

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

SouthamObserver said:

Motorist is such a 20th century term. It always makes me think of blokes who wear chamois leather gloves when they get behind the wheel of their Rovers...

Isn't that who Rishi is talking to ?

Exactly. The ones who were doing it in the 1960s and 1970s. And the prematurely senile ones who have signed up to that vision.

And we all know why they wear backless gloves.

Not all of us do. Why?

TimS

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sean_F said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

LD back as the third party too.

I think 196 seats for the Tories would be a good result for them.

It is a really good poll for the Tories as Jacob Rees-Mogg loses his seat.

36 feels low for us. I can see a succession of blue wall seats falling like dominos on the night. Davey plans a "laser-like" targeting of seats and after the absurd chaos of the 2019 election I think he is right to do so.

But in a change election the tidal surge sweeps way past the targets...

36 would be very good for the Lib Dems. John Curtice thinks 30 is the maximum.

I don't see why.

They went from ~50 to ~10 in one election. Why can't the same happen in reverse?

It all depends upon how people vote. The biggest problem is they're not appearing positively appealing, not that there's a ceiling.

John Curtis does seem to have a bit of a continuity bias in his predictions, which is fair enough I suppose as calling a sea change is difficult.

TheScreamingEagles

I've said for ages the Brexit Tory Party is a socialist party delivering Michael Foot's manifesto and guess what, the voters see the Tories as more of a tax raising party than Labour.

This is interesting for @RestIsPolitics - voters think @UKLabour and
@Conservatives will both increase taxes - but are far more likely to think Labour would spend more on public services



https://twitter.com/benatipsos/status/1707650092436447502/photo/1

TimS

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

LD back as the third party too.

I think 196 seats for the Tories would be a good result for them.

It is a really good poll for the Tories as Jacob Rees-Mogg loses his seat.

36 feels low for us. I can see a succession of blue wall seats falling like dominos on the night. Davey plans a "laser-like" targeting of seats and after the absurd chaos of the 2019 election I think he is right to do so.

But in a change election the tidal surge sweeps way past the targets...

I am doubtful that it will be more than 36, and it likely will be less.

In 1997 a lot of LD and Lab seats were won unexpectedly, but having been active in the 1997 election the feel is very different now. The Tories are looking very dog eared and fixated on internal battles the same as 1997, but there isn't the same mood of optimism for Starmer that there was for Blair.

Might that encourage more tactical voting though? There would have been plenty in 1997 who voted in Tory-LD marginals for Blair, because they liked what they saw. Whereas now they would be casting a primarily negative vote and caring less about who defeats the Tory MP.

TheScreamingEagles

Stuartinromford said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, it’ll be bad for the Tories, Brits love Drakeford’s policies.

The default speed limit in built up areas in Wales is now 20mph

Asked in July last year, 48% of Britons supported a shift to 20mph in urban areas, compared to 39% who were opposed

https://x.com/yougov/status/1703718003710583029?s=46

That was in July 22 and long before it became law in Wales

The controversy continues unabated in Wales but in the last few days speeds in 20mph zones have increased to circa 25mph and in some cases back near 30mph unless a driver is following the 20mph when the traffic soon backs up

The legislation has its place, but the implementation is the issue here in Wales no more so than the difference between Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Gwynedd) and in Delyn and Alyn and Deeside as explained in this article

I expect changes will be made by LA's but it is a live issue here and needs sensible compromise

The one Welsh county where 20mph backlash is muted

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/part-wales-not-seeing-20mph-27798570#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

Is the Fire Service still enforcing the ban?

Why not read the article which provides a commentary on the present controversy than quote an out of date poll

Furthermore, as I said enforcement is not taking place outside the 20mph zones around schools that were 20mph long before the legislation

It is also interesting that the article did refer to the political landscape that the parts of North Wales that voted for the Labour Welsh Government at the Senedd election in 2021 are the most rebellious on this issue

Drakeford's 20mph = Starmer's Curry

And we all know how that one ended.

Have you read the article ?

So, in some places the number of petition signatories is nearly twenty percent of the electorate.

We either have a pre-revolutionary situation here...

... Or someone is fiddling the petition by putting in postcodes that aren't theirs.

I have voted 6 times in that petition using legit Welsh post codes and received emails confirming my vote.

Sean_F

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Six cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats at the next general election as support for the Conservatives in the suburbs of southern England crumbles, polling for The Times and Times Radio shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis of voting intention by the Stonehaven research and strategy consultancy suggested that the Labour Party would win a comfortable majority of 90 seats and 39 per cent of the votes if the next general election were held tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was among the ministers who would be unseated by the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll used demographic and other data to build a constituency-by-constituency projection showed that support for the Conservatives would collapse to 26.3 per cent of the vote, from 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rishi Sunak’s projected 196-seat tally would be the worst recorded by any Conservative leader since William Hague’s 166 in 2001. Labour’s 372 seats would give Sir Keir Starmer a comfortable working majority of 90, the party’s biggest since 2001.

Highlighting the Tories’ vulnerabilities in their traditional southern heartlands, the Liberal Democrats would be returned with 36 seats and 10.8 per cent of the vote, a marked improvement on the 15 seats they hold at present.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/six-cabinet-ministers-set-to-lose-seats-at-next-election-tw9708pq6

LD back as the third party too.

I think 196 seats for the Tories would be a good result for them.

It is a really good poll for the Tories as Jacob Rees-Mogg loses his seat.

36 feels low for us. I can see a succession of blue wall seats falling like dominos on the night. Davey plans a "laser-like" targeting of seats and after the absurd chaos of the 2019 election I think he is right to do so.

But in a change election the tidal surge sweeps way past the targets...

I am doubtful that it will be more than 36, and it likely will be less.

In 1997 a lot of LD and Lab seats were won unexpectedly, but having been active in the 1997 election the feel is very different now. The Tories are looking very dog eared and fixated on internal battles the same as 1997, but there isn't the same mood of optimism for Starmer that there was for Blair.

The Lib Dems had a much stronger base in local government in 1997 than they do today. Their victories tended to be in places of long-standing strength on local councils.