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Are we reading June’s Uxbridge by-election wrongly? – politicalbetting.com
Are we reading June’s Uxbridge by-election wrongly? – politicalbetting.com
The successful CON defence of Uxbridge on June 23rd is being used by many to raise doubts about current polling and whether the very large LAB leads would actually be there at a general election.
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- Demographics / differential swing (Uxbridge being one of those metroland outer burb places that doesn't feel like fertile Starmer territory - like Bexley and Sidcup)
- ULEZ
- Labour not being as good at byelections as the Lib Dems
Labour were starting from a fairly high base in Uxbridge- there was a high profile "Get Boris out" campaign in 2019, and at least some people will have been happier voting for a local nobody rather than the Bozzmeister.
Compared to that, there was a lot more low hanging fruit for Labour in Selby.
(Some of the "Lib Dems are brilliant at by-elections" meme is due to that. In the vast majority of constituencies, Lib Dems rightly do the square root of naff all in a General Election. They're pretty much bound to gain votes in a place where they campaign for basically the first time.)
- reversion to the mean - Con has been underperforming in London for some time
- Rishi more to London's tastes than Boris
A 7% Con to Lab swing in a GL seat shouldn't therefore be that much of a surprise in the context of a national swing of 10%.
That's not to say opposition to Khan and ULEZ won't play a part, particularly in getting the vote out. But it won't swing the dial by itself
I think ULEZ is a pretty good explanation for what happened.
Because a lower swing in London - where seats are already pretty safe - means bigger swings elsewhere.
Firstly, I don't think it should be read as meaning the polls are very wrong. We have plenty of other ballot box evidence, from local elections and Selby that Labour enjoys a substantial lead. It's true there are local variations - the Tories took Slough at the local elections for instance - but the broad picture does matter, and is pretty clear. It may suggest the Labour lead is a bit vulnerable in the right circumstances - that the deal isn't fully sealed. But that's different from saying the polls are very wrong.
Secondly, I think Uxbridge is wrongly read as meaning there is a strong appetite for an anti-environmentalist agenda. ULEZ was a good local issue for the Tories as it was on the brink of being introduced (so very salient) and people were worried about the impact on them and on the granny driving her Morris Minor to mass etc (some of it exagerated but that was the concerrn). It could have been another motivating local issue (HS2 in Chesham for instance) but that happened to be the issue there. I think it's a big, and potentially ruinous, leap to think that generalises nationwide.
What may help the Tories in Mid Beds is the split in the opposition vote between Labour and LD, although Labour need a bigger swing to win Tamworth since 2019 they will be helped by the limited LD campaign there
https://www.emptywheel.net/2023/09/22/the-menendez-indictment-how-much-is-one-kilo-of-gold-worth-kilo-of-gold-price/
The latest indictment of Robert Menendez almost seems like a personal challenge to Clarence Thomas, to see if there are bribes of a public official that Thomas and his cronies on the Supreme Court won’t find a way to deem constitutional.
After all, what if Thomas is getting gold bars on the side from his “friends,” as Menendez is alleged to have been?
The short version, though, is that after Menendez’ last corruption prosecution, Nadine Arslanian started dating then married Menendez. And he started doing favors for some of her friends, Wael Hanna and Fred Daibes, who had ties to Egypt, including sharing non-public information with Egyptian officials and helping Hanna secure the monopoly on halal certification for meat imported into Egypt.
The indictment alleges a lot of breath-taking stupidity on Menedez’ part, including twice searching for the price of gold after doing something incriminating...
Rishi Sunak's net favourability score has fallen to a new low of -45
Favourable: 23% (-3 from 30-31 Aug)
Unfavourable: 68% (+1)
He has now drawn almost level with the Conservative party's score of -48
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1705228567049596939/photo/1
The number of Lib Dems with a favourable view of Rishi Sunak has halved since late August
Lib Dem voters
Favourable: 12% (-13)
Unfavourable: 85% (+12)
Con voters
Favourable: 48% (+1)
Unfavourable: 47% (-2)
Lab voters
Fav: 6% (-3)
Unfav: 90% (+2)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1705228570186993887
It means that if through sampling error the true level of Tory support has been underestimated in the past, then it's likely that a future sample will show a higher level.
It doesn't mean that if the Tories have been unpopular in London, they won't continue to be unpopular.
Argentina 13 Samoa 3
According to @IpsosUK, Sunak's net approval rating (-33) on whether he's doing a good job is now lower than:
- Truss's rating after the mini budget (-32 at the end of Septembrr 2022)
- Johnson's worst ratings ever (lowest was -30), including the week he resigned.
https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1705224691617534083/photo/1
#LegendaryModestyKlaxon
7% swing to Lab?
This is the same electorate that quite liked Cameron and Osborne, or at least tolerated them. Their favourite recent Lib Dem leader was Vince Cable. They hoped in vain that Rory Stewart would win the leadership election back in 2019.
I think now the scales are falling from the eyes. They hated the Tories but didn’t mind Rishi. Now they realise he’s one of them.
I know many such people. They would be natural Tory voters in past decades. They work in large corporates and are fully immersed in ESG and net zero, as an item of faith.
That doesn't mean they can't be reduced to 100-150 seats though.
Except more risky blow-up announcements like we had this week on Net Zero. Sunak will be very pleased at how it went, and there will be several more pre-planned.
So when does "can't ditch another PM" get overtaken by "can't keep this PM"?
The ridiculous net zero volte face, and its accompanying nonsensical claims have destroyed both parts of that.
FWIW, I didn't expect a great deal for him, and he would never have swayed my vote, but I'm nonetheless genuinely disappointed in him.
Rishi Sunak is considering introducing some of the world’s toughest anti-smoking measures that would in effect ban the next generation from ever being able to buy cigarettes, the Guardian has learned.
Whitehall sources said the prime minister was looking at measures similar to those brought in by New Zealand last December. They involved steadily increasing the legal smoking age so tobacco would end up never being sold to anyone born on or after 1 January 2009.
It is understood Sunak’s leadership pledge to fine people £10 for missing a GP or hospital appointment may also be back on the table, although this could be politically difficult. The idea was announced by the prime minister during his campaign in summer 2022, but appeared to have been dropped when he took office last autumn.
A New Zealand-style anti-smoking policy would mean cigarettes were phased out completely for the next generation. Under the former prime minister Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand also legislated to reduce the nicotine content of tobacco products and force them to be sold only through specialty tobacco stores, rather than convenience stores and supermarkets.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/22/rishi-sunak-considers-banning-cigarettes-for-next-generation
Samoa = Tories
It’s not exciting nor does it give the impression that he has an ideology but in its own way it’s more honest. Rather than promise unicorns he is more about making sure he has the lab ready to genetically create the unicorns first.
If he had come in as PM, say Cameron’s second term I think you would see a more Truss style small state, low spending, low tax approach but Covid and Ukraine made it impossible these last few years.
Having said that he might just be an empty suit, that doesn’t fit.
But then again, hardly anyone is.
It means nothing without a direct comparison to, say, Cameron or Brown.
I think Brown is the comparator. Starmer is no Cameron and I reckon Brown would have turned it around* in 2010 vs a generic Tory.
*even more than he did - he did deny Cameron a majorly in similar circumstances to Sunak’s.
On second thoughts, belay that. It's Friday and the second dog now, so I am off to see where I put the rest of the Provencal rose I started yesterday at dinner.
However, Uxbridge (and Leicester, and Slough and elsewhere) points towards a bunch of Astérix-style holdouts where the normal UNS rules don’t apply. There’s a demographic we should get familiar with: Bexley bloke / Uxbridge uomo.
BB and UU inhabit similar milieu and have similar economic positions and world views: 1930s outer suburbs, car owning, mid to late middle age, largely self-employed. Mainly white but also Asian (Hindu, possibly Sikh though with the Canada thing that gets tricky). Not obviously affected by Brexit, nor with any great affinity for Europe. More likely to holiday in Florida than France. Probably voted Brexit, mainly because of Brussels bureaucracy.
Didn’t expect or need any levelling up because they’re not in the right region. Not that wedded to public services, and both would put the kids in private school if they could. See the USA as a reasonable model of self sufficiency.
Mildly poujadiste, but never hard core far right.
I might do a bit of a scour of the seats to identify ones with these characteristics then see if there is constituency level betting available.
And if he's the luckiest politician in history he hits on something that wrongfoots Labour and changes the game.
Both had local elections in 2022 and Labour got around 7% closer in Selby than they did in Uxbridge, despite the latter being a more marginal Westminster seat.
Now, as studies have shown, the relationship of LEs to GEs is weak, and the variable timing of LEs and the role of independents can muddy the waters considerably, but I do think where you have a good baseline looking at the locals is a very helpful data point in reading by-elections specifically.
Losing Teal-types leads to a defeat (see Australia). Losing meaningful numbers of voters to Reform leads to a rout (see Canada).
If that is Sunak's calculation, the next year is going to be ugly.
Always fascinating to read legal stories from barristers chambers. Here - on my reading - it appears that a Tunisian asylum seeker in the UK cannot be sent to serve a prison sentence in Sweden for multiple thefts because it has been concluded that he needs to stay in the UK to look after his wife and son and, because the offences in Sweden took place long ago (2020), the court in Sweden could not have taken in to account at the point of sentencing him to jail caring responsibilities that have manifested themselves in the intervening time.
"The requested person was subject of a conviction warrant, arising from multiple convictions for theft committed in Sweden, occurring in 2018 and 2020. The requested person was due to serve 1 year and 4 months in Swedish prison.
Following his convictions, the requested person and his young family relocated to Tunisia, his country of origin. Whilst they were in Tunisia, he and his wife experienced mistreatment due to their beliefs. Consequently, the requested person and his family relocated to the UK in November 2021 and made a claim for asylum from Tunisia, during which time, the warrant was issued.
The defence challenged the request on the sole ground of the Article 8 rights of the requested person and his and extradition subsequently being disproportionate.... In discharging the request on the Article 8 grounds, District Judge Sternberg, noted that the health of the wife and son of the requested person, which was a compelling factor, post-dated the Swedish Courts’ sentencing decisions. As such, the court were not able to conclude the sentencing court in this jurisdiction would likely impose a custodial sentence rather than a community-based sentence, which was deemed relevant to the proportionality exercise in this case..."
Perhaps one for the lurking journalists to pick up on.
Worth it just for the irony.
Typically it takes a week or two for these things to play out.
Of course I think it’s deceitful and short-sighted, but I’m not a swing voter. I think there’s decent anecdotal evidence to suggest that it has sent an effective dog whistle to “Gravesend Gammon” who might have drifted away from the Tories since Boris’s ouster.
Boris was passing off his bullshit as a joke, and so it was hard to rebut it with mockery. Sunak doesn’t have that “skill”.
The idea that Sunak has “banned” a “meat tax” surely invites multiple piss-take memes.
Sunak has realised there is no polling reward for being “strong and stable”, so we’re in for a set of crass and inherently mendacious dividing lines designed for cheerleaders at GBNews.
It’s going to feel a bit whip-lashy though because Sunak is not good at this, and frankly there’s no ideological consistency to make any of it coherent. For example, what does “Gravesend Gammon” think about an effective abolition of cigarette smoking suggested above?
Rishi Sunak was."
To hope polls done yesterday and today to show any trend from what was a major announcement is unrealistic
Personally, I expect a modest uplift but not enough to worry labour
There's the danger that it might look like bullying if Starmer were to do it, though - it's something that might best be left to Rayner.
It could be an Emperor's New Clothes moment after which it would be impossible for the voters to take seriously anything the government says or does, because all of their credibility would be gone.
I’m not a big fan of Rayner, but she can do “bantz”.
Starmer is best taking the higher ground and should focus on confident rebuttal, increasingly important now he is commonly understood as PM-in-waiting.
Haha!
Did you know Rishi was considering a tax on meat?
What else is he planning?
I smashed my face into a glass table when I was about 4 in Portugal and my parents reckoned the treatment I received was probably better than I'd have had in the UK. Now this was in 1985 but I think Portuguese and UK healthcare on this sort of thing would be close enough. The toddler is not in Africa.
He got into politics to be a big cheese - he didn't expect to actually have to do politics. Reviewing all of the policy areas (which he seems to want to do) is entirely the right course, but cereal-packet popularity solutions once you've done that... I think not.
(As an aside, do cereal packets still have printed on them whatever it was they used to have? I recall they used to have some big things, but I've forgotten quite what!)
Boris Johnson's ratings were dire, compared to historical standards, for a PM at a general, particularly a new PM, but Corbyn's ratings gave Johnson that 80 seat majority.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4433219/#Comment_4433219
"Usually I would agree, however, there is in Britain a new four party (I include the SNP and Lib Dems) political consensus based around a set of deeply unpopular and economically harmful policies, largely the result of politicians (and administrators) agreeing to things at international symposia.
This is why Starmer hasn't sealed the deal and isn't trusted or liked. Whilst he's hamstrung with these terrible policies (support for ulez, stratospheric green levies, destroying the UK's oil industry, open door immigration), he will always be vulnerable to the first party to espouse a more popular agenda, be it Nigel, or (as they did successfully before) the Tories robbing Nigel's clothes."
There are more of these dividing lines, if Sunak and his team are brave enough to exploit them, and do so with conviction and seriousness. He's sort of done it on green - though the execution hasn't been flawless.
Starmer has now been captured on film stating that he's against any divergence from EU law. As the heir presumptive, if he wasn't already an EU devotee, he's expected to align the UK closely with the EU with a view to joining Macron's new 'outer group' and potentially going all the way back in. Sunak could ban EU supertrawlers from UK waters - a policy that is environmentally-sound and beneficial to the UK fishing industry. Starmer wouldn't be able to follow.
When Blair won in 1997 and Cameron won in 2010 and took their parties from opposition to government, their ratings with the public were significantly higher than Starmer's are now
There may well be a swing much less than national average, but Leicester East is not going to be a Con gain.
The UK clearly should be closely aligned with the EU and (now) entirely independent.
https://x.com/berlin_bridge/status/1705282007398252841
In the US it's this group that swung 2016 for Trump. The MAGA true believers can't win it for him on their own. But you add in the folk who just want the government to leave them alone and aren't imaginative or interested enough to appreciate how dangerous Trump is and he gets over the line.
Why Thankyou. Working like a dream
I give it 3 weeks before it goes catastrophically wrong and requires 5 hours of helpless rebooting
#SMERSHWithStyle
In 1993 for example the Canadian Tories won just 2 seats after losing power in a landslide defeat, ending up 5th on seats behind the Liberals, BQ, Reform and NDP.
Yet by 2006 the Canadian Conservatives won 124 seats and most seats and by 2011 166 seats and a majority
Imagine if microwaves or washing machines went wrong all the time. It would get fixed
Is there something in the technology of basic domestic printers that means they can’t be made reliable? Are the manufacturers knowingly selling dud products?
Otherwise there is surely room for a new printer manufacturer to step in and say “here, try this, it almost never goes wrong”. Boom
Might this be the first time that Putin would stay to feel the first stirrings of fear that Ukraine are able to threaten his life directly?
I’m also surprised, however, that the Russians haven’t really tried to take out Zelensky
I suspect there might be a tacit agreement between them. Don’t kill the leader
Poor Old Orc What A Shame.
To combat this, they try to make sure the printer only works with official ink cartridges, but if the protection mechanism gets hacked then they lose their revenue stream, so it's better to make the printers unreliable and cheap.
I suppose it’s the very physical inkiness that makes them problematic. But they are also shit at linking with other devices on wifi and various other things.
If Putin thought he could kill Zelensky then he would, and no agreement would stop him. The only reason he hasn't is because he can't.