politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB easily holds Wythenshawe. UKIP beat Tories to second place on a share of 17.8pc
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http://www.manchester.gov.uk/info/362/elections_and_voting/4981/your_next_election
#wythenshawe The real story from the by-election, if any, is the collapse in the Lib Dem vote from over 10k to 1176, just 4.9%, lost deposit
Triumph for Clegg!
It's worth noting that the Tory vote wasn't especially close to 2nd despite tweets to the contrary - total vote share more than halved. Another Twitmyth that was going round is that UKIP nearly won the vote on the day, which would be wrong even if their postal vote was 0 and all 17.95% came on the day. Never trust Twitter!
Great news for Labour is that this result supports Ashcrofts marginal polling.
Labour held onto 74% of their 2010 votes compared to 66% in South Shields.
The last time that the Tories retained a seat in a by election while in power was exactly a quarter of century ago when Hague won Richmond
The non immigrant voting support level for UKIP in this by election would therefore have been well above 1 in 5, perhaps above 1 in 4. Perhaps someone knows the answer.
That is surely the factor of concern, if UKIP get those percentages in areas without a high number of immigrants. I think they will lean UKIP in Euros, as voting Labour to keep Tories out irrelevant in that vote.
They took that from the Tories. Labour havent shown that they are invincible to UKIP. Just that they are far further down the road than the Tories in working out how to deal with them.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchester_Council_election,_2010#Northenden
LibDem performance
Eastleigh -14.4%, result WIN (on the lowest share since 1918)
Wythenshawe -17.4%, result LOST DEPOSIT
Which was the fluke result?
As a result of this by-election, the central forecast moves from a Labour lead of 1.6% to one of 2.0%...
A (small) Tory lead is still within the bounds of the model.
Lord Ashcroft Poll vs. Outturn Lord Ashcroft's poll overestimated both the Labour vote share and majority.
It underestimated the UKIP, Conservatives and Others vote share.
The swing to Labour only looks good when compared to 2010. When you compare Labour's vote share with its won elections in 1997, 2001 and 2005 then the 55% doesn't impress so much: lower than both 1997 and 2001 and only 3% above 2005.
Wythenshawe & Sale East
Vote Shares Not where I would want to be a year or so off the General Election if I were Ed Miliband.
Especially given the low turnout, death of a popular MP causing the by election, and, the general expectation that this was an unlosable seat for Labour.
Wythenshawe & Sale East
UK Parliamentary By Election Results
13 February 2014 Turnout
Pinch yourself.
You need to wake up.
13UUaGK8ZDLxjY7RYu2bKEabqjww2KDyxD
Where is Mark Senior when you want him?
In terms of % vote loss #Wythenshawe is the Lib Dems worst by-election result since 1945.
16 months vs ~70 years ? - Hmm, I know which result I’d prefer.
But will it?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/referendum-news/yes-does-not-mean-yes.23438016
If he could just get the Tories to keep their mouths shut.
28% is on the low side...no UKIP tanks on the green.
If the potential Ukip core is:
- non-PC Tories
- everyone in the middle (middle defined as the join between C1 and C2)
- bitter ex-Labour
then whatever the size of the available bitter ex-labour segment - which will vary from place to place - they will mostly vote just out of revenge and don't need to be pitched to directly plus doing so will likely annoy the other two segments especially if it has the word "benefits" in it, plus having a different pitch to different audiences is lame anyway.
So the pitch should be consistently focused on the first two segments imo.
PDQ too, the way things are going for the Party.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Lowest_turnout
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Lowest_turnout
What does this mean for 2015? A large loss of seats yes, but where it gets interesting is in the Tory/LibDem marginals. In the rest of the country a LibDem vote has become seen as indistinguishable with a Tory vote. In seats where the two coalition parties have been the only ones in play I think we could see all kinds of interesting results where anti- government voters are either going to stay at home in despair or Labour or UKIP are going to come from nowhere and win.
As for Clegg, you have to wonder if it has been worth it.....
"Labour win Wythenshawe and Sale East byelection on sharply reduced turnout
The Guardian - 2 minutes ago
A total of 10,141 postal votes were cast and only 13,883 on the day. ... the inter-war council estate of Wythenshawe, built to house the overspill ..."
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·5 hrs
CON GAIN Kingstanding in Birmingham
CON 1571
LAB 1433
UKIP 266
LD 43
NF 33
I thought you had another model as well, that showed a 90%+ chance of the Tories being largest party?
It looks as if The LDs gained a lot of voteshare between 2001-5: the anti war vote. These now seem to have returned to Labour. These switchers were probably Labour on holiday rather than true believers of the LDs all along, just pee-ed off in 2005/10.
MrsB standing in for Mark Senior
Yes, I can see this putting a rocket up the Yes campaign. Anyone would think the Tories were desperate to bin off Scotland so that they could turn England into a one party state they could rule forever. But that's silly, such a concept has never crossed their minds.....
The main lesson for UKIP to learn is to manage expectations better, especially when fighting a snap by-election in a seat long held by Labour or Tory. The postal vote was a killer for UKIP, all the more reason to get as many councillors elected in May as possible.
It certainly won't put off UKIP supporters from putting even more effort into future battles.
Should postal voting not be a fallback option for those who really can't get their arses into the local primary school?
Parties voters assumed to be left of centre on 1 May 2010: 60.2% (from 2010 GE 66.4%)
Parties voters assumed to be right of centre on 1 May 2010: 32.4% (from 2010 GE 29.0%)
Bad news for the right:
Labour share of left of centre vote: 91.8% (66.4%)
Conservative share of right of centre vote: 44.8% (88.2%).
Stick that in yer models...
That was a seriously underwhelming performance by UKIP after all the bluster.
But it seems even the Salmondites do not want real independence just a tartan trewed simulation of it.
A big raspberry to the other parties especially the LibDems.
..................................................................
Reluctantly I return to an issue that festered overnight and which hopefully may now be put to rest.
@Mick_Pork indicated that the "putrid stench of hypocrisy" hung over the continuing absence of "tim". I then replied :
"tim" left of his own volition and OGH has made it clear to the point of tedium that "tim" is not banned and free to return should he wish to do so."
A further exchange then occurred.
However the essentials of this sorry story is as I indicated. "tim" left because his publically known personae was given a further airing and the scrutiny that he demanded of others he himself wasn't prepared to undergo on a public forum.
"tim" is not banned. He is able to return at will and despite my regular spats with "tim" I hope he does return. PB is at its best when we are broad church but the matter is in "tim's" hands.
Last night we saw the return of both "Ave it" and "SeanT" and other lost souls have returned to the fold recently but one issue is clear - PB will flourish with or without "tim"
Whilst people with a bit of knowledge from the start said they had no chance as it is the wrong sort of seat for UKIP.
The message for punters is lay LD rather than back Lab or SNP.
Guardian News and Media has signed a seven-figure deal to provide content about sustainability under the brand of household goods giant Unilever. It is the first deal for the new Guardian Labs division – which describes itself as a “branded content and innovation agency which offers brands bold and compelling new ways to tell their stories and engage with influential Guardian audiences”.
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/02/13/the-guardian-now-shares-values-with-unilever/
Bring out the bogeyman and ignore the issues.
Written by Will Henley for Guardian Professional, to a brief agreed with Bristol City Council. Funded by Bristol City Council.
http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/bristol-green-european-capital
On Scotland, my head is in my hands over the events of the last couple of days. It shows again how the No campaign basically doesn't get the Scottish psyche. I am convinced Osborne's speech will strengthen Yes - the sight of him lecturing them will alone add 2%.
Not sure what UKIP's particular issue with psotal voting in this contest, but I agree entirely it should be limited to those genuinely unable to make it to a polling station. Being bone idle is not an excuse.
That's a general problem of coalitions, not just this one, and it will be a problem if there's a Lab-Lib coalition too. But it's reinforced by the fact that most members and many supporters regard themselves as left of centre, so it's like an unhappy spouse who sticks with the partner even though the friends really dislike the spouse.