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New poll finds 63% wanting an early election – politicalbetting.com
New poll finds 63% wanting an early election – politicalbetting.com
Highest % supporting and lowest % opposing during this Parliamentary term.Would the British public support or oppose the UK Government calling a General Election in the next 6 months? (3 September)Support: 63% (+7)Oppose: 11% (-2)Changes +/- 27 August pic.twitter.com/KJD02GPwQS
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And I think Mike is right - there's no incentive at all for Sunak to go early. Something might turn up, and in any case cutting a year from their term of office for no reason just isn't what ambitious politicians do (see Major and Brown).
Spring or Autumn 2024. The former seems unlikely so October 2024 it is.
John Major in 1997 was clearly going to lose, as is Sunak. He delayed until the last possible minute and it didn't do him any good. It made things worse.
Gordon Brown famously delayed through the winter of 2009/10 when he might have held on to power with an autumn election in 2009.
James Callaghan did the same in 1978 and the country then endured the Winter of Discontent, leading to Margaret Thatcher's historic victory.
Sunak will legitimately get away with holding off until October 2024. Anything longer and he'll be losing more seats by the week.
- Having a campaign running through Christmas and New Year will annoy everyone
- January is the blues month. The lowest of the low.
- In January people have least money and the GE would have to be held before pay day
- It's dark, cold, and miserable
- the media will be gunning for an election throughout 2024.
- It looks utterly desperate and that is fatal. Major tried it in 1997 with a ridiculously long campaign that pissed off the whole country.
Gets Sunak to 2 years, near maximises the chance of something derailing Labour's lead, but still a whole quarter year 'early', you've got to give him that.
I feel like the campaign will be like 2019 in the pundits will spend a lot of time speculating if the polls are wrong, but the general public will show that no, they went in with mind made up that it was time for Labour, and that's that.
They can get some momentum with the usual newspapers applauding a Budget of great genius (as they did with Kwarteng/Truss) but that warm glow doesn't last very long.
I think I've only been at home one weekend in the last five...
Then I remembered my theory that Wales would tire first in the heat, so reinvested at 40/1. I'm almost rich!
Well, done but afraid I can't see Wales winning the tournament. Looks like it will fall to one of France/NZ/Ireland/SA. Saffers looked very good indeed.
Wales and numerous others, like England, look they could be good spoilers though, maybe causing the odd upset. Makes for a good tourney.
Thanks for the tips. You should keep a record of how you do overall.
Conference season may well be interesting.
Sunak's schtick seems to be normal government, or what passes for that given the state of his Party. I don't think he'll do anything dashing or controversial. It makes sense to hold on until autumn next year in the hope that something will turn up. It might do. Vlad could unleash armageddon, in which case the polls and just about everything else will look very different.
He won't hang on until 2025 because that's high risk, and he's not a high-risk kind of guy. He won't go early for the same reason, unless against all expectations the polls improve dramatically for him.
So it's all a bit boring. Never mind. Leaves us free to chat about the Rugby, dangerous dogs, and the like.
Looks like a nice morning. Think I'll walk the dogs, if there are no dog-wardens around.
Toodle pip.
What’s the line - “Put him out of our misery” ?
The GERD (big Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) on the Nile is very controversial, and there's a non-zero risk of military action occurring.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66771155
There was a massive war in the north of Ethiopia recently, with suspicions the Egyptians helped provide resources to the rebels. The dam's location makes it a concern for Sudan and Egypt, but the power generation capacity is immense.
It's a free market measure.
https://www.cnn.com/style/article/china-bans-clothing-hurt-nation-feelings-intl-hnk
Will @TSE s quiet, unassuming, sartorial style cause an international incident?
The parliament is nearly 4 years old. There is a natural drift towards election soon, so why not now, even in those who are right leaning but not particularly tribal over it.
I mean, who will be actively opposing an election in 12 months time other than those who'd wish to impose some kind of emergency law on us. So, a drift in this measure over time is right and proper.
There's another 12 months before it happens. Everybody in Westminster knows this.
Major was according to the polls on for an even heavier shellacking earlier in the Parliament. It's entirely reasonable to believe that the election might have been worse, not better, for the Tories had they gone sooner and the improving economic situation by 1997 may have mitigated against their losses.
Similarly with Brown he was actually polling worse not better in 2009. 2009 he was behind in the polls by double digits in almost every poll, high teens in many of them. That was brought down to single digits by the election.
A 2009 election might have seen a Tory majority instead of a Hung Parliament.
Delete Generation, substitute Government!
Welcome to Autumn
You just don’t like them because you think that “your side” benefits from voters not having to prove their right to vote, from the ability to have multiple preferences counted and to restrict the traditional flexibility of the executive to dissolve parliament at will (subject to maximum terms)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-66769783
(I don’t think it’s “misusing” the dam so much as getting greedy and taking more than their agreed proportion of water that is a risk for Egypt)
I also think this is an import from the US - where the structures of right wing politics have always been anti majoritarian and have always over empowered the power of elite minorities to block progress. Historically that would have been the Lords and the Monarch for the UK, but as that has been increasingly viewed as undemocratic, it is hard to do.
Indeed, isn't it rather notable that more people are now calling for a prompt election than were in the chaotic last days of Truss?
I think Sunak would be making a mistake drawing it out past May - that clamour to get on with it will only grow, along with the sense of running scared. The Budget is his best chance to change the narrative - big, Tory-friendly initiatives like getting rid of inheritance tax, then go to the country on "this is only available with a Sunak Government". I don't think it'll win it for him, but it is his best chance.
I agree with you that I don't think there's any way to get an actual fixed schedule election in our system -- it's too hard to make it stick long enough to become accepted as a traditional part of the constitution that you can't get rid of. (There's theoretically nothing stopping Sunak from passing legislation saying elections only have to be every *ten* years now, right?)
"Ex-Foreign Office chief Lord McDonald told colleagues he voted to stay in the EU - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66769661
I believe there are also potential plans for a number of smaller projects of a similar nature elsewhere in Ethiopia which may also have a detrimental, or potentially detrimental, impact on the water situation.
I prefer PR systems as better but it doesn't mean FPTP is undemocratic, though the pretext for changing mayoral voting was extremely weak and clearly for advantage
Voter ID happens in many very democratic nations and so can be OK, but i don't see evidence that justified such a measure where there is not a universal ID available. However despite the fears about youth my theory is it hurt the Tories as older people were more likely to forget to bring ID.
Ultimately parties are unlikely to bring in changes they think will hurt their chances, and we have to assess whether longterm it's good for the country too.
I liked the recent Greek election where a change to the system only took effect 2 elections after it was passed. Of course, that was achieved by two GEs in a year.
I stand by my original prediction of a France South Africa final - and will keep making daily predictions.
In terms of voting ID - that is clearly a move to lower the voter turnout; even conservatives have said the quiet part out loud on that. I think the mayoralty move is also antidemocratic, but in a more interesting and grey sense that depends on your definition of democracy. I think it is fair to say FPTP is the worst way to use voting - you can have large majorities against a candidate who still ends up winning with a small plurality of the vote because their opposition is split. One of the benefits of transferable voting systems or proportional representation is it changes that dynamic. The voter gets more options and more ability to express their will, not less. I understand the whole "it's been done this way for x long, loads of dead people can't have been wrong" is kinda the root idea of conservatism - but that's not good enough for a lot of people. If you can really show why FPTP is better than STV or complete ranked choice voting in terms of democracy, rather than "it makes it harder for my guy to win", I'd be willing to back it - I just don't see it myself.
The prize for Sunak is probably reducing losses of his MPs to a point where Labour looks to have to head an unstable rainbow coalition. I know of MPs who are expecting another election in 2025. His best shot doing that is getting inflation down, getting interest rates down, and reducing the potency of the cost of living crisis. For that to have maximum effect, he goes October 2024.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/sep/10/suella-braverman-pushes-for-ban-on-american-bully-xls-after-attack
'Suella Braverman is pushing for a ban on American bully XL dogs, arguing they are a “clear and lethal danger”, particularly to children.
The home secretary announced she has commissioned urgent advice on outlawing the dogs after she highlighted an “appalling” attack on an 11-year-old girl in Birmingham.
However, adding dogs to the banned list is the responsibility of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) under the environment secretary, Thérèse Coffey. The PA news agency understands there are concerns within Defra over the feasibility of adding the American bully.'
If anything the Lords now is more liberal than the elected
Commons, see its opposition
to sending migrants to
Rwanda or votes to delay Brexit. Even the King is
somewhat woke
It’s essentially the same as all US presidential polling, which is the ultimate forced choice.
Again, you see the same over the Atlantic - with GOP candidates floating the idea of raising the voting age to 25, again, in hopes of making it easier to keep winning elections without having to appeal to a majority of younger voters.
Eminently sensible logic, and I would add Sunak seems to be enjoying it despite the critics so why reduce his term in office
Also good news today on mini production
Braverman will have got Sunak's approval for this popular ban, civil servants will do what the elected government tells them to do and most MPs would also almost certainly vote it into law
In the hills east of Seoul.
There were leaked recordings of the Cabinet in Egypt talking about taking it out. The time for action against GERD by Egypt has now gone. The risk of any sort of land-grab are now too great.
Fun people; great food; ugly cities
Business or pleasure?
But we'll have had nearly two weeks of uninterrupted good weather in the meantime, so a wet few days are OK by me.
US elites are still very right wing, and the Supreme Court is a terrible example of "progressive elites" - equal marriage was won after years of campaigning and was the compromise position from the queer liberation movement after the AIDs crisis and years of being anti assimilationist. And Roe v Wade happened 50 years ago. Whereas the Supreme Court almost always sides with big business, even with liberal justice support, the police, the military and against the environment, the rights of the individual and minority rights. There was one moment in SCOTUS history of progressive movement (the Warren court) to which reactionaries created the entire right wing legal apparatus to dismantle its gains (through the creation of the Federalist Society) culminating in the court the US currently has. It has got so right wing that this SCOTUS is signalling it may get rid of Miranda Rights (on arrest "you have the right to remain silent, anything you say may be used against you... etc.") because that imposes too much on the ability of police to, you know, pick people off the streets and put them in jails where they can die from being consumed by insects.
But now that year is nearly up, and the figures are 63% and 11%. That's a net of -52%, which is a fair movement (I admit that's peak to trough for Sunak, but it's probably not going to get all that much better, and will get worse pushing deep into 2024).
On October, even if you're right that people will feel materially better about the economy this time next year (and I think that's pretty optimistic) I still think he's better going based on a Budget containing (broadly) tax-cutting initiatives that give an idea of what a full Sunak term will look like, and that set people thinking about whether a Labour Government would snatch those prizes away. It isn't clear to me that simply making claims about green shoots will do it.
Yes. The Sun and the Mirror both have this on the front page, with editorials demanding a ban. The Mail has a poll of 12,000 readers with 94% - 94%! - demanding a ban
A ban is overwhelmingly popular and even this stunningly incompetent government can surely see what must be done. And what could happen if they don’t, and some child gets its face ripped off, on Tik Tok
The RSPCA-niks at Defra will be overruled and a ban will happen
It seems that honest people can’t disagree anymore without outlandish claims being made by their opponents
6. UK Fusion. Delivering what the UK Fusion sector leaders asked for: a re-allocation of the £600m ringfenced for Euratom for our UK Fusion Industrial Strategy: a huge win for our UK Fusion Program. ..
https://twitter.com/GeorgeFreemanMP/status/1700102250096464256
The sheer amount of hills and forest in the north is quite something.
I don't think Seoul is particularly ugly - quite nice in parts.
Any unexpected highlights?
None of them justify the broad brush attack that the Tories are “anti-democratic”
Part of the issue with politics these days is that extreme language has been normalised. Trump’s actions on Jan 6 were anti-democratic. These are not.
Particularly in the matters to which you allude.
She’s quite clearly politicking to be her successor by parking her tanks on someone else’s lawn. If Sunak had any authority he’d slap her down. But he doesn’t have that power.
I approve. They add a touch of urban drama to one of London’s most humdrum locations. A bit of Hong Kong looming over the scruffiness
Now it's dogs.
What next, gerbils or newts?
If she's talking about banning the breed, then it's not her dept at all. She can't override a fellow minister, as HYUFD seems to think - but he thought yesterday that just because Ms Braverman said she wanted X that meant it has already happened as ordered by the PM.
There may be scope within the HO for non-breed based solutions for what is a real problem - insurance, and so on - and those to my mind have more merit. But those would impact some, or all, other dogs. And, of course, there are existing laws on reckless behaviour.
But I'd spend a fortnight in Seoul next time.
This week we're doing the east coast and then Busan.
Oddly, the responsibility for the addition of breeds to the banned list must have passed to DEFRA from the Home Office at some point as Kenneth Baker made the last such order when he was Home Secretary.
As you say, if this has Number 10 on side, DEFRA can swivel even if they have a point on practical difficulties. Not only would Coffey not seek to block it, she couldn't if push came to shove. It doesn't need to be her name on the statutory instrument as the fact Kenneth Baker made the last one illustrates. When legislation provides for the Secretary of State to make an order, it never specifies which SoS - any SoS can in theory exercise the power (although obviously they'd be sacked instantly if Number 10 hadn't approved it).
@DPJHodges
·
45m
I see we have reached the Dangerous Dogs Bill stage of this Government’s term of office…
The Dangerous Dogs Act is often cited as a classic case of an awful, rushed bit of legislation. Maybe it was. But perhaps worth pointing out it is still in force three decades later.
Sooner and he won’t have time to really carry out enough electoral bribery or even (ha ha) make good on his pledges. There is the possibility also of a bit more economic recovery, maybe enough to engender a sense of ‘oh well, I suppose things aren’t *that* bad’.
There are outlier options aplenty though, so I guess I don’t discount anything! If he had enough of a spine he’d go sooner, and set out a plan and seek a proper democratic mandate for it.
Given that it's so easy to modify the list, it's curious it's taken so long to do nothing - it's not as if the bully dogs haven't been known for attacking other dogs and people for quite some time now. I wonder if DEFRA think the breed(s) aren't definable? Kennel Club UK certainly doesn't recognise it/them.
- Bites requiring hospital admission trebled in 20 years to 2018.
- 69 fatal attacks between 2001 and 2021.
- Then *10* fatal attacks in 2022.
https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2023/08/15/dog-attacks-on-adults-are-rising-but-science-shows-its-wrong-to-blame-breeds/
Dog ownership up by half 2020 to 2022.
Manchester is on the turn though - the black clouds are approaching.
Now it's all populist throws of the dice, PR stunts around things that have been ignored since 2010, CYA and squirrels.