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The Mid Beds betting gets tighter – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited September 2023 in General
imageThe Mid Beds betting gets tighter – politicalbetting.com

As most people will know I am a Lib Dem in that I live very close to the mid Bedfordshire constituency where there will be a by-election.

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    That's grim for Trump. He needs a big lead going into 2024 because he'll shed support as the legal noose tightens.
    That's a bold assumption.

    I think he has a lock on 45% of voters, who depending on outlook, love him, or disapprove, but think he's King David, or disapprove but hate the enemy more and accept he's their son of a bitch.

    45% is not a winning number, but it comes perilously close.
    I don't think that's quite true.

    If you look at the Republican Primary polling from the NYTimes (or others), you see that the Republican Party itself is split into three groups:

    (1) The MAGA base, which is about 37-28% of Republican voters. These are the DJT until I die voters.

    (2) The "I like Donald, but I worry about his electability". These (another 37-38%) guys will almost certainly vote DJT in the Presidential, and are mostly breaking for him the Primary.

    (3) The "Please God, Not Donald" group - which is still 25% of the Republican Party. Now, they may well still vote DJT over Biden, but they are certainly not locked in voters for him.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    "The New York Times
    @nytimes

    Mayor Eric Adams escalated his rhetoric over the influx of migrants from the southern border, saying at a town hall meeting that the issue would “destroy New York City” and renewed his push for federal help. https://nyti.ms/3RauFMg"

    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1699870166090133951
  • Options
    Tucker Carlson seems to think Obama is a gay crack addict. It’s a new low for conservatism
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/07/tucker-carlson-twitter-larry-sinclair-interview-obama/ (£££)
  • Options
    Why a new Chinese smartphone has sparked panic in Washington
    Beijing makes a mockery of US sanctions with breakthrough in chip technology

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/09/07/why-huawei-new-smartphone-sparked-panic-washington-china-us/ (£££)

    And as China shows it can now make advanced chips, its new ban on officials using iphones at work has wiped $200 billion off Apple's market value in two days.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    "The New York Times
    @nytimes

    Mayor Eric Adams escalated his rhetoric over the influx of migrants from the southern border, saying at a town hall meeting that the issue would “destroy New York City” and renewed his push for federal help. https://nyti.ms/3RauFMg"

    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1699870166090133951

    The quote tweets on that from hostile liberals are quite remarkable.

    “People of color punching down are absolute trash.”

    “I hate this guy so much.”

    “This is what voting democrat gets you. A bigoted conservative.”

    “I AM BEGGING YOU TO STOP ELECTING COPS”

    “This ridiculous fraud @NYCMayor must resign. The immigrants will revitalize this city. If anybody destroys it, it'll be this fool Adams prostituting himself for the police.”
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
    Well, obviously, I haven't actually read the article...

  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,621

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.


    If there's one subject where it's OK to rant, it's ghastly modern architecture and the horrors it has wrought on our society.

    It's usually irresistible for politicians and civil servants to follow expert advice, but when those experts are wrong and the usual checks and balances fail, we are left with a complete disaster.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    Vivek having a spot of bother with his truthiness.

    Me: "Did you not make 750,000 dollars?"
    Vivek Ramaswamy: "Not at the time I had applied for the [Soros] scholarship."
    Me: "Yes you did Vivek. This is awkward for you because you did. I've got the tax returns in front of my face."..

    https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1699782281748197506

    Hasan is the best political interviewer in the business.


  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    edited September 2023
    Fishing said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
    If there's one subject where it's OK to rant, it's ghastly modern architecture and the horrors it has wrought on our society.

    It's usually irresistible for politicians and civil servants to follow expert advice, but when those experts are wrong and the usual checks and balances fail, we are left with a complete disaster.
    Analysis beats ranting.

    Everyone apart from the architects has been rating for decades and it's changed very little.

    It's OK to rant, but not particularly useful.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    edited September 2023
    Elon Musk ordered Starlink to be turned off during Ukraine offensive, book says

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/sep/07/elon-musk-ordered-starlink-turned-off-ukraine-offensive-biography
    ...The biography, due out on Tuesday, alleges Musk ordered Starlink engineers to turn off service in the area of the attack because of his concern that Vladimir Putin would respond with nuclear weapons to a Ukrainian attack on Russian-occupied Crimea. He is reported to have said that Ukraine was “going too far” in threatening to inflict a “strategic defeat” on the Kremlin.

    Musk’s threats to withdraw Starlink communications at various stages of the conflict have been previously reported, but this is the first time it has been alleged he cut off Ukrainian forces in the middle of a specific operation.

    The date of the would-be attack was not specified. Musk reportedly referred to it as a “mini Pearl Harbor”, although Ukrainian forces were operating within their internationally recognised territorial waters...
  • Options
    Rishi Sunak rules out more student visas in exchange for trade deal with India as he personally takes charge of talks
    ...
    Downing Street has scrambled to kill off fears the deal will mean thousands more student visas amid signs of a growing Tory revolt.

    Senior Conservatives warned Rishi that going soft on borders would create a “powder keg” that would reignite civil war in the party.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/23860819/rishi-sunak-rules-out-student-visas-trade-deal-india/
  • Options

    Rishi Sunak rules out more student visas in exchange for trade deal with India as he personally takes charge of talks
    ...
    Downing Street has scrambled to kill off fears the deal will mean thousands more student visas amid signs of a growing Tory revolt.

    Senior Conservatives warned Rishi that going soft on borders would create a “powder keg” that would reignite civil war in the party.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/23860819/rishi-sunak-rules-out-student-visas-trade-deal-india/

    Ah, yes. Let’s forget what might, or might not, be in country’s interests - and look at the question merely through the prism of what holds the Tory Party together.
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
    It seems more a rant against the social aspect of architecture in the post-war years that has been uneasily wrapped up around the RAAC debacle.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Elon Musk ordered Starlink to be turned off during Ukraine offensive, book says

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/sep/07/elon-musk-ordered-starlink-turned-off-ukraine-offensive-biography
    ...The biography, due out on Tuesday, alleges Musk ordered Starlink engineers to turn off service in the area of the attack because of his concern that Vladimir Putin would respond with nuclear weapons to a Ukrainian attack on Russian-occupied Crimea. He is reported to have said that Ukraine was “going too far” in threatening to inflict a “strategic defeat” on the Kremlin.

    Musk’s threats to withdraw Starlink communications at various stages of the conflict have been previously reported, but this is the first time it has been alleged he cut off Ukrainian forces in the middle of a specific operation.

    The date of the would-be attack was not specified. Musk reportedly referred to it as a “mini Pearl Harbor”, although Ukrainian forces were operating within their internationally recognised territorial waters...

    Musk lies.

    AS ever.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    edited September 2023
    Worfield (Shropshire) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 48.1% (+33.5)
    CON: 47.1% (-27.8)
    LAB: 4.8% (+4.8)

    No Green (-10.4) as prev.

    Votes cast: 832

    LDEM GAIN from Con.

    In Newcastle under Lyme two Lab holds on hardly any swing. Seat of @Tissue_Price.

    It is the LibDems that seem to manage the big swings.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Foxy said:

    Worfield (Shropshire) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 48.1% (+33.5)
    CON: 47.1% (-27.8)
    LAB: 4.8% (+4.8)

    No Green (-10.4) as prev.

    Votes cast: 832

    LDEM GAIN from Con.

    In Newcastle under Lyme two Lab holds on hardly any swing. Seat of @Tissue_Price.

    It is the LibDems that seem to manage the big swings.

    It's hard to think of Davey as a big swinger, but there, you can't always tell by appearances.
  • Options

    Morning all.

    As of today I am less than 1 year from qualifying as a solicitor. Many of you will remember me posting about this before I even attempted the career change 4+ years ago. Many of you have helped me along the way, which I am very grateful for.

    I am involved in many interesting cases and projects for which I obviously but unfortunately cannot talk about but which I am sure would be of great interest to PB!

    Great stuff, Gallowgate, but don't be shy.

    Doesn't stop TSE.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Worfield (Shropshire) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 48.1% (+33.5)
    CON: 47.1% (-27.8)
    LAB: 4.8% (+4.8)

    No Green (-10.4) as prev.

    Votes cast: 832

    LDEM GAIN from Con.

    In Newcastle under Lyme two Lab holds on hardly any swing. Seat of @Tissue_Price.

    It is the LibDems that seem to manage the big swings.

    It's hard to think of Davey as a big swinger, but there, you can't always tell by appearances.
    See Palmer, Nicholas.
    Wolf whistles?
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
    It seems more a rant against the social aspect of architecture in the post-war years that has been uneasily wrapped up around the RAAC debacle.
    A shame, as there's an excellent case to be made against brutalism:

    1)It looks shit;

    2) The quality is shit;

    3) The life expectancy is shit;

    4) The environmental impact is large and negative;

    5) And it's not even cheap because you
    have to do so much maintenance.
    And it’s corrosive to the soul of the inhabitants. The sort of thing Crowley would have done

  • Options
    Foxy said:

    Worfield (Shropshire) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 48.1% (+33.5)
    CON: 47.1% (-27.8)
    LAB: 4.8% (+4.8)

    No Green (-10.4) as prev.

    Votes cast: 832

    LDEM GAIN from Con.

    In Newcastle under Lyme two Lab holds on hardly any swing. Seat of @Tissue_Price.

    It is the LibDems that seem to manage the big swings.

    Winning by less than a dozen votes must be gratifying/galling depending on which side of the line you fall.

    We had a Nice Lady Across The Road steal a seat as an Independentat our local Council elections. She was most astonished. Seems like the houses in our row swung it.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,034

    Morning all.

    As of today I am less than 1 year from qualifying as a solicitor. Many of you will remember me posting about this before I even attempted the career change 4+ years ago. Many of you have helped me along the way, which I am very grateful for.

    I am involved in many interesting cases and projects for which I obviously but unfortunately cannot talk about but which I am sure would be of great interest to PB!

    Congratulations! I do remember you posting about that back then. Honestly I remember being slightly concerned you might regret it, so great to hear you're happy.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
    It seems more a rant against the social aspect of architecture in the post-war years that has been uneasily wrapped up around the RAAC debacle.
    A shame, as there's an excellent case to be made against brutalism:

    1)It looks shit;

    2) The quality is shit;

    3) The life expectancy is shit;

    4) The environmental impact is large and negative;

    5) And it's not even cheap because you have to do so much maintenance.
    Like any type of architecture, there is brutalism done well and brutalism done badly. Survivorship bias tends to mean that earlier building styles look better than newer ones.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Worfield (Shropshire) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 48.1% (+33.5)
    CON: 47.1% (-27.8)
    LAB: 4.8% (+4.8)

    No Green (-10.4) as prev.

    Votes cast: 832

    LDEM GAIN from Con.

    In Newcastle under Lyme two Lab holds on hardly any swing. Seat of @Tissue_Price.

    It is the LibDems that seem to manage the big swings.

    It's hard to think of Davey as a big swinger, but there, you can't always tell by appearances.
    See Palmer, Nicholas.
    Wolf whistles?
    Three's company?
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    Worfield (Shropshire) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 48.1% (+33.5)
    CON: 47.1% (-27.8)
    LAB: 4.8% (+4.8)

    No Green (-10.4) as prev.

    Votes cast: 832

    LDEM GAIN from Con.

    In Newcastle under Lyme two Lab holds on hardly any swing. Seat of @Tissue_Price.

    It is the LibDems that seem to manage the big swings.

    So much of Lib Dem success is down to the strength of their campaigns- much more than Lab or Con who can get by a fair bit on national swing.

    So there are lots of wards and constituencies with a fairly large latent Lib Dem vote that can be activated by getting a leaflet or three for the first time. Hence the spectacular swings and the wins from third.

    Tell me where they are doing a serious campaign and (right now) that will be where they win.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    edited September 2023
    On topic, it sounds like OGH is hinting his Party has edged it on selection of Candidates.

    A Councillor From Walthamstow does not sound like a good fit for mid-Beds. Labour's disappointment in Uxbridge stemmed partly I think from poor candidate selection (plus some enterprising fibbing re ULez, but hey, that's politics!)

    I'm sure the Police Commissioner is a worthy chap, but the Fuzz not really having a good Press at the moment.

    Local Councillor is always a good bet in a by-Election.

    Might have a little dabble on The Peril. Looks a great betting heat.
  • Options

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
    It seems more a rant against the social aspect of architecture in the post-war years that has been uneasily wrapped up around the RAAC debacle.
    A shame, as there's an excellent case to be made against brutalism:

    1)It looks shit;

    2) The quality is shit;

    3) The life expectancy is shit;

    4) The environmental impact is large and negative;

    5) And it's not even cheap because you have to do so much maintenance.
    Like any type of architecture, there is brutalism done well and brutalism done badly. Survivorship bias tends to mean that earlier building styles look better than newer ones.
    There are some flats right by Southampton station that are classic brutalist architecture. They are *supposed* to resemble ships, but the oddest-looking ships ever. I have always hated them, as they look absolutely hideous, with that depressing grey-streaked colour old concrete can get.

    https://goo.gl/maps/wonnvBCwXqe5NUd7A

    When I was down there earlier this year, I went in to have a look around. And... it wasn't terrible. Not necessarily somewhere I'd like to live, but it was clean, tidy and the flats, from the outside, looked relatively well-cared for. There was certainly none of the smell of p*ss that used to avail me in the stairwell of a place I lived for a short period in South London.

    The flats won an architecture award in 1966, and were grade-II listed in 1988.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyndham_Court
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Worfield (Shropshire) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 48.1% (+33.5)
    CON: 47.1% (-27.8)
    LAB: 4.8% (+4.8)

    No Green (-10.4) as prev.

    Votes cast: 832

    LDEM GAIN from Con.

    In Newcastle under Lyme two Lab holds on hardly any swing. Seat of @Tissue_Price.

    It is the LibDems that seem to manage the big swings.

    It's hard to think of Davey as a big swinger, but there, you can't always tell by appearances.
    See Palmer, Nicholas.
    A wolf porn addict in mild mannered XMP’s clothing.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Elon Musk ordered Starlink to be turned off during Ukraine offensive, book says

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/sep/07/elon-musk-ordered-starlink-turned-off-ukraine-offensive-biography
    ...The biography, due out on Tuesday, alleges Musk ordered Starlink engineers to turn off service in the area of the attack because of his concern that Vladimir Putin would respond with nuclear weapons to a Ukrainian attack on Russian-occupied Crimea. He is reported to have said that Ukraine was “going too far” in threatening to inflict a “strategic defeat” on the Kremlin.

    Musk’s threats to withdraw Starlink communications at various stages of the conflict have been previously reported, but this is the first time it has been alleged he cut off Ukrainian forces in the middle of a specific operation.

    The date of the would-be attack was not specified. Musk reportedly referred to it as a “mini Pearl Harbor”, although Ukrainian forces were operating within their internationally recognised territorial waters...

    Seems most likely to have been that time when we first saw the Ukrainian naval drone when one of them washed up on the shore of Crimea.

    I know the US isn't itself actually at war with Russia, but by this action Musk directly aided the enemy of a US ally, a country that is heavily sanctioned by the US. It seems incredible that this would not lead to criminal charges. The right-wing in the US are now such brazen traitors to their country.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,638
    Confident that the Lib Dems will call it as a two-horse race. (Though the identity of the non-LD horse may depend on which house they are leafleting.)
  • Options

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
    It seems more a rant against the social aspect of architecture in the post-war years that has been uneasily wrapped up around the RAAC debacle.
    A shame, as there's an excellent case to be made against brutalism:

    1)It looks shit;

    2) The quality is shit;

    3) The life expectancy is shit;

    4) The environmental impact is large and negative;

    5) And it's not even cheap because you have to do so much maintenance.
    Like any type of architecture, there is brutalism done well and brutalism done badly. Survivorship bias tends to mean that earlier building styles look better than newer ones.
    Though Brutalism can be done well, it doesn't seem easy or particularly cheap to do that, and the consequences when it goes badly are fairly horrible.

    I don't necessarily buy the "these architects were evil to even try this stuff", but it's probably best not to do any more.
  • Options
    Meanwhile, in Blighty, Sunak's government has wrecked one of the biggest success stories of this period of Tory rule, with the abject failure of the offshore win auction.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms

    It's hard to see Sunak as the safe pair of hands to steward the country that he presented himself as when taking over following the Truss Calamity. Could be more than another year of this? I'd almost rather have Fine Gael...
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,034

    Meanwhile, in Blighty, Sunak's government has wrecked one of the biggest success stories of this period of Tory rule, with the abject failure of the offshore win auction.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms

    It's hard to see Sunak as the safe pair of hands to steward the country that he presented himself as when taking over following the Truss Calamity. Could be more than another year of this? I'd almost rather have Fine Gael...

    Can't they just re run the auction with a higher max price?
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,621
    edited September 2023

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
    It seems more a rant against the social aspect of architecture in the post-war years that has been uneasily wrapped up around the RAAC debacle.
    A shame, as there's an excellent case to be made against brutalism:

    1)It looks shit;

    2) The quality is shit;

    3) The life expectancy is shit;

    4) The environmental impact is large and negative;

    5) And it's not even cheap because you have to do so much maintenance.
    Like any type of architecture, there is brutalism done well and brutalism done badly. Survivorship bias tends to mean that earlier building styles look better than newer ones.
    There's also torture done well and torture done badly. But the world would be a better place without any torture.

    Brutalism, whatever the origin of the word, is torture on the eyes. The world would be a more beautiful place if Le Corbusier and others had not lived.
  • Options

    Meanwhile, in Blighty, Sunak's government has wrecked one of the biggest success stories of this period of Tory rule, with the abject failure of the offshore win auction.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms

    It's hard to see Sunak as the safe pair of hands to steward the country that he presented himself as when taking over following the Truss Calamity. Could be more than another year of this? I'd almost rather have Fine Gael...

    Don't they just reopen the auction, LP?

    Surely this is not a lot different to bids not reaching the reserve price - disappointing, but not a catastrophe.
  • Options
    Peak R4 Today headline.

    ‘Ezra Collective wins Mercury prize, does this herald a new Jazz Age?’

    No, no it doesn’t.
  • Options
    Cant get my head around the number of byelections in such a short period of time - prob last time was when the Unionists all resigned en masse in the mid 1980s... I dont sense the media really know how to cover these... fascinating fights.... really welcome some good betting tips (after all this is a political betting site)
  • Options
    On topic, mid Beds should be the LibDems to pick up, especially now that Tamworth is on the same day. A neat division of activists between the two.

    Doubt it will happen exactly like that, but as I've pointed out when the polling shows a LD win more likely, the question that Labour activists need to ask is do they want to enable the Tories to both scrape home and turn the momentum against them.
  • Options

    Meanwhile, in Blighty, Sunak's government has wrecked one of the biggest success stories of this period of Tory rule, with the abject failure of the offshore win auction.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms

    It's hard to see Sunak as the safe pair of hands to steward the country that he presented himself as when taking over following the Truss Calamity. Could be more than another year of this? I'd almost rather have Fine Gael...

    Don't they just reopen the auction, LP?

    Surely this is not a lot different to bids not reaching the reserve price - disappointing, but not a catastrophe.
    The failed auction is indicative of the government's denial of the problems caused by rising interest rates and inflation for offshore wind, and their unwillingness to do anything in response.

    The bigger problem is that a project that has already started has been mothballed for the same reasons. Re-running the auction won't help with those projects that went through auctions when the inflation and financing environment was completely different.
  • Options

    Cant get my head around the number of byelections in such a short period of time - prob last time was when the Unionists all resigned en masse in the mid 1980s... I dont sense the media really know how to cover these... fascinating fights.... really welcome some good betting tips (after all this is a political betting site)

    Just checked out the Candidates and it seems the Labour man from Walthamstow does have local connections, so maybe not a bad choice.

    It's a very difficult one to call, and the betting reflects that. I'm watching and trying to contrive an all-green book, but so far there has been little price movement.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,554

    Meanwhile, in Blighty, Sunak's government has wrecked one of the biggest success stories of this period of Tory rule, with the abject failure of the offshore win auction.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms

    It's hard to see Sunak as the safe pair of hands to steward the country that he presented himself as when taking over following the Truss Calamity. Could be more than another year of this? I'd almost rather have Fine Gael...

    Don't they just reopen the auction, LP?

    Surely this is not a lot different to bids not reaching the reserve price - disappointing, but not a catastrophe.
    The failed auction is indicative of the government's denial of the problems caused by rising interest rates and inflation for offshore wind, and their unwillingness to do anything in response.

    The bigger problem is that a project that has already started has been mothballed for the same reasons. Re-running the auction won't help with those projects that went through auctions when the inflation and financing environment was completely different.
    Is the disappearance of offshore wind why the Government is suddenly talking about onshore wind again.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Woah woah woah, hold up. OGH is a Lib Dem, header!?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    edited September 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    That's grim for Trump. He needs a big lead going into 2024 because he'll shed support as the legal noose tightens.
    That's a bold assumption.

    I think he has a lock on 45% of voters, who depending on outlook, love him, or disapprove, but think he's King David, or disapprove but hate the enemy more and accept he's their son of a bitch.

    45% is not a winning number, but it comes perilously close.
    I don't think that's quite true.

    If you look at the Republican Primary polling from the NYTimes (or others), you see that the Republican Party itself is split into three groups:

    (1) The MAGA base, which is about 37-28% of Republican voters. These are the DJT until I die voters.

    (2) The "I like Donald, but I worry about his electability". These (another 37-38%) guys will almost certainly vote DJT in the Presidential, and are mostly breaking for him the Primary.

    (3) The "Please God, Not Donald" group - which is still 25% of the Republican Party. Now, they may well still vote DJT over Biden, but they are certainly not locked in voters for him.

    Yep. The nomination is sewn up and virtually all will vote for him in the presidential. The last group is the strangest to do so, but most of them are pretty clear they will.

    The hope is they could at least stay home.

    If Trump wins a few tight races there may be legal challenges, and its worth remembering that that is fine, if they are frivolous, and if they stop trying to overturn the win if the cases fail.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Nigelb said:

    Elon Musk ordered Starlink to be turned off during Ukraine offensive, book says

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/sep/07/elon-musk-ordered-starlink-turned-off-ukraine-offensive-biography
    ...The biography, due out on Tuesday, alleges Musk ordered Starlink engineers to turn off service in the area of the attack because of his concern that Vladimir Putin would respond with nuclear weapons to a Ukrainian attack on Russian-occupied Crimea. He is reported to have said that Ukraine was “going too far” in threatening to inflict a “strategic defeat” on the Kremlin.

    Musk’s threats to withdraw Starlink communications at various stages of the conflict have been previously reported, but this is the first time it has been alleged he cut off Ukrainian forces in the middle of a specific operation.

    The date of the would-be attack was not specified. Musk reportedly referred to it as a “mini Pearl Harbor”, although Ukrainian forces were operating within their internationally recognised territorial waters...

    There is a whiff of rancid Chornoye More caviar about this story. Why would an "armed submarine drone" need Starlink? It uses Ku band which obviously doesn't work underwater. You can't use it for positioning with any reliability or accuracy on a moving vehicle. An autonomous vehicle, as the story states, would use some commercial IMU/INS or maybe even ArduPilot in times of true desperation not a continuous Internet link.

    There's also the possibility that Musk got his instructions from elsewhere. The US does like to fiddle with the controls when fine tuning the Ukrainian offensive capability.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
    It seems more a rant against the social aspect of architecture in the post-war years that has been uneasily wrapped up around the RAAC debacle.
    A shame, as there's an excellent case to be made against brutalism:

    1)It looks shit;

    2) The quality is shit;

    3) The life expectancy is shit;

    4) The environmental impact is large and negative;

    5) And it's not even cheap because you have to do so much maintenance.
    Like any type of architecture, there is brutalism done well and brutalism done badly. Survivorship bias tends to mean that earlier building styles look better than newer ones.
    This one has lasted longer than most, and is indeed a tourist attraction, I understand.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_fortification_of_Guernsey#/media/File:OP_(2).jpg
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    rkrkrk said:

    Went for a morning swim in the sea. Glorious bliss. Came back to find a dog pissing on my clothes.

    Oh dear, commiserations.

    But was it a Bully XL? That's all that counts on PB those days canine-wise.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Peak R4 Today headline.

    ‘Ezra Collective wins Mercury prize, does this herald a new Jazz Age?’

    No, no it doesn’t.

    Some good news to start the day.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,407
    A three-horse race - tricky for punters
    a bit like the intractable three-body problem is for mathematicians
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,364

    Good morning from Wembley Park. Every time I stay here (the Hilton) I always think what a great development this new Wembley Park complex is. Then I remember how much the apartments go for and laugh a little.

    47 today. Was out for dinner last night with a friend from uni who is about to turn 50. Where did the years go?

    Happy Birthday Rochdale! You have had a better start to the day than rkrkrk, so you are already winning.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Cant get my head around the number of byelections in such a short period of time - prob last time was when the Unionists all resigned en masse in the mid 1980s... I dont sense the media really know how to cover these... fascinating fights.... really welcome some good betting tips (after all this is a political betting site)

    There were 7 in a year 2016 and 2012 as well. The most we've had since that mass unionist set in 86 is 9 in a year.

    I'd just keep an eye out for the mid beds main challenger to become clear before most notice it.
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    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
    It seems more a rant against the social aspect of architecture in the post-war years that has been uneasily wrapped up around the RAAC debacle.
    A shame, as there's an excellent case to be made against brutalism:

    1)It looks shit;

    2) The quality is shit;

    3) The life expectancy is shit;

    4) The environmental impact is large and negative;

    5) And it's not even cheap because you have to do so much maintenance.
    Like any type of architecture, there is brutalism done well and brutalism done badly. Survivorship bias tends to mean that earlier building styles look better than newer ones.
    There's also torture done well and torture done badly. But the world would be a better place without any torture.

    Brutalism, whatever the origin of the word, is torture on the eyes. The world would be a more beautiful place if Le Corbusier and others had not lived.
    Quite. There are certain things that humans find beautiful in buildings, relating to inherited ideals of safety, plenty, security. Ornament, symmetry, natural materials like wood and stone, deep set windows, lush vegetation etc. Brutalist architecture is demonstrably fuck ugly, that's why brutalist architects famously choose to live in Tudor mansions.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    Am I missing something about the escaped prisoner? They keep banging on about his military training and how it will help him as if he’s Andy McNab with intense evasion training and super strength and fighting skills.

    As far as I can see he did a few years in the Signals. Have I missed he was special forces or do they train signallers how to go undercover in cities and live off their wits these days?
  • Options
    boulay said:

    Am I missing something about the escaped prisoner? They keep banging on about his military training and how it will help him as if he’s Andy McNab with intense evasion training and super strength and fighting skills.

    As far as I can see he did a few years in the Signals. Have I missed he was special forces or do they train signallers how to go undercover in cities and live off their wits these days?

    I am somewhat surprised he is only 21

    Also some discussions he could be being helped by malign actors though I have no idea how true that is
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    boulay said:

    Am I missing something about the escaped prisoner? They keep banging on about his military training and how it will help him as if he’s Andy McNab with intense evasion training and super strength and fighting skills.

    As far as I can see he did a few years in the Signals. Have I missed he was special forces or do they train signallers how to go undercover in cities and live off their wits these days?

    There's 18 (UKSF) who are the Signallers for Special Forces (ie brain dead psychos with bad knees).
  • Options

    Good morning from Wembley Park. Every time I stay here (the Hilton) I always think what a great development this new Wembley Park complex is. Then I remember how much the apartments go for and laugh a little.

    47 today. Was out for dinner last night with a friend from uni who is about to turn 50. Where did the years go?

    Happy birthday sir. Hope you have a cracking day.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Elon Musk ordered Starlink to be turned off during Ukraine offensive, book says

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/sep/07/elon-musk-ordered-starlink-turned-off-ukraine-offensive-biography
    ...The biography, due out on Tuesday, alleges Musk ordered Starlink engineers to turn off service in the area of the attack because of his concern that Vladimir Putin would respond with nuclear weapons to a Ukrainian attack on Russian-occupied Crimea. He is reported to have said that Ukraine was “going too far” in threatening to inflict a “strategic defeat” on the Kremlin.

    Musk’s threats to withdraw Starlink communications at various stages of the conflict have been previously reported, but this is the first time it has been alleged he cut off Ukrainian forces in the middle of a specific operation.

    The date of the would-be attack was not specified. Musk reportedly referred to it as a “mini Pearl Harbor”, although Ukrainian forces were operating within their internationally recognised territorial waters...

    There is a whiff of rancid Chornoye More caviar about this story. Why would an "armed submarine drone" need Starlink? It uses Ku band which obviously doesn't work underwater. You can't use it for positioning with any reliability or accuracy on a moving vehicle. An autonomous vehicle, as the story states, would use some commercial IMU/INS or maybe even ArduPilot in times of true desperation not a continuous Internet link.

    There's also the possibility that Musk got his instructions from elsewhere. The US does like to fiddle with the controls when fine tuning the Ukrainian offensive capability.
    So you're saying that the story is bogus on a technical level anyway...but provide an explanation for why it wouldn't be Elon's fault regardless even if it is true?

    I don't really see why the latter is necessary as a theory if the former is there. I mean, if you're correct then it's just slander at Elon, no need to speculate about him secretly being an agent of the Biden administration.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    edited September 2023
    boulay said:

    Am I missing something about the escaped prisoner? They keep banging on about his military training and how it will help him as if he’s Andy McNab with intense evasion training and super strength and fighting skills.

    As far as I can see he did a few years in the Signals. Have I missed he was special forces or do they train signallers how to go undercover in cities and live off their wits these days?

    Maybe it's a subtle jab at the rest of us for being useless, a covert ad for the armed forces.

    "With army training, you too could evade the authorities"
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733

    Cant get my head around the number of byelections in such a short period of time - prob last time was when the Unionists all resigned en masse in the mid 1980s... I dont sense the media really know how to cover these... fascinating fights.... really welcome some good betting tips (after all this is a political betting site)

    Just checked out the Candidates and it seems the Labour man from Walthamstow does have local connections, so maybe not a bad choice.

    It's a very difficult one to call, and the betting reflects that. I'm watching and trying to contrive an all-green book, but so far there has been little price movement.
    I’ll be staying out of this market for that reason, Peter. I don’t foresee huge price movements as unlikely to get many polls etc that could move the markets.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,029
    edited September 2023
    Strange recurrence of weirdo twitter/X accounts (eg 10 followers, blue tick) making allegations about Chris Packham’s financial arrangements. He’s obviously ruffled a few feathers.

    Geddit?

    https://x.com/ecobarberr/status/1699367373852078151?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • Options

    boulay said:

    Am I missing something about the escaped prisoner? They keep banging on about his military training and how it will help him as if he’s Andy McNab with intense evasion training and super strength and fighting skills.

    As far as I can see he did a few years in the Signals. Have I missed he was special forces or do they train signallers how to go undercover in cities and live off their wits these days?

    I am somewhat surprised he is only 21

    Also some discussions he could be being helped by malign actors though I have no idea how true that is
    Are you thinking Kevin Spacey?
  • Options

    Meanwhile, in Blighty, Sunak's government has wrecked one of the biggest success stories of this period of Tory rule, with the abject failure of the offshore win auction.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms

    It's hard to see Sunak as the safe pair of hands to steward the country that he presented himself as when taking over following the Truss Calamity. Could be more than another year of this? I'd almost rather have Fine Gael...

    Don't they just reopen the auction, LP?

    Surely this is not a lot different to bids not reaching the reserve price - disappointing, but not a catastrophe.
    I posted about this yesterday. The issue is they have set the CfD price too low and seem to be unwilling to increase it. Particularly as it has direct implications for public finances.

    Moreover it takes many months for companies to work up plans/workflows based on the auction price so this has put a massive delay jnto the next phase of development
    Thanks, Richard. Sorry I missed that.

    I do try to keep up, but at my age...
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    edited September 2023

    Strange recurrence of weirdo twitter/X accounts (eg 10 followers, blue tick) making allegations about Chris Packham’s financial arrangements. He’s obviously ruffled a few feathers.

    Geddit?

    https://x.com/ecobarberr/status/1699367373852078151?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    VP of RSPB. The latter currently not flavour of the month with the rightwingers. Vide George Monbiot in the Graun.

    Edit: also dodgy linky in that twatter.
  • Options

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
    It seems more a rant against the social aspect of architecture in the post-war years that has been uneasily wrapped up around the RAAC debacle.
    A shame, as there's an excellent case to be made against brutalism:

    1)It looks shit;

    2) The quality is shit;

    3) The life expectancy is shit;

    4) The environmental impact is large and negative;

    5) And it's not even cheap because you have to do so much maintenance.
    Like any type of architecture, there is brutalism done well and brutalism done badly. Survivorship bias tends to mean that earlier building styles look better than newer ones.
    There's also torture done well and torture done badly. But the world would be a better place without any torture.

    Brutalism, whatever the origin of the word, is torture on the eyes. The world would be a more beautiful place if Le Corbusier and others had not lived.
    Quite. There are certain things that humans find beautiful in buildings, relating to inherited ideals of safety, plenty, security. Ornament, symmetry, natural materials like wood and stone, deep set windows, lush vegetation etc. Brutalist architecture is demonstrably fuck ugly, that's why brutalist architects famously choose to live in Tudor mansions.
    It's possible to do most of those things in a Brutalist way, and that basically works fine- take the Barbican. Then, the even hammered concrete is more of less forgivable. The trouble is that most buildings of that era were done in a shoddy way so we were left with ugly concrete boxes. And whilst modern developments have moved on from brutalism, they still don't tick many of the boxes on the list of desirables.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 5,017

    Good morning from Wembley Park. Every time I stay here (the Hilton) I always think what a great development this new Wembley Park complex is. Then I remember how much the apartments go for and laugh a little.

    47 today. Was out for dinner last night with a friend from uni who is about to turn 50. Where did the years go?

    Happy birthday.
    Since turning 40 i've been going to the gym almost every day - I have this sudden deep sense within me that I need to hold off decline.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    Farooq said:

    Cant get my head around the number of byelections in such a short period of time - prob last time was when the Unionists all resigned en masse in the mid 1980s... I dont sense the media really know how to cover these... fascinating fights.... really welcome some good betting tips (after all this is a political betting site)

    Just checked out the Candidates and it seems the Labour man from Walthamstow does have local connections, so maybe not a bad choice.

    It's a very difficult one to call, and the betting reflects that. I'm watching and trying to contrive an all-green book, but so far there has been little price movement.
    I’ll be staying out of this market for that reason, Peter. I don’t foresee huge price movements as unlikely to get many polls etc that could move the markets.
    Other news could move the market. A collapsing school somewhere, for example.
    True, and I might well be proved wrong, but seems a fairly low chance to my mind.
  • Options

    Cant get my head around the number of byelections in such a short period of time - prob last time was when the Unionists all resigned en masse in the mid 1980s... I dont sense the media really know how to cover these... fascinating fights.... really welcome some good betting tips (after all this is a political betting site)

    Just checked out the Candidates and it seems the Labour man from Walthamstow does have local connections, so maybe not a bad choice.

    It's a very difficult one to call, and the betting reflects that. I'm watching and trying to contrive an all-green book, but so far there has been little price movement.
    I’ll be staying out of this market for that reason, Peter. I don’t foresee huge price movements as unlikely to get many polls etc that could move the markets.
    Well a few rumours would be helpful.

    Maybe we could start some? 'A friend of mine down the pub....'
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372

    Meanwhile, in Blighty, Sunak's government has wrecked one of the biggest success stories of this period of Tory rule, with the abject failure of the offshore win auction.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms

    It's hard to see Sunak as the safe pair of hands to steward the country that he presented himself as when taking over following the Truss Calamity. Could be more than another year of this? I'd almost rather have Fine Gael...

    Don't they just reopen the auction, LP?

    Surely this is not a lot different to bids not reaching the reserve price - disappointing, but not a catastrophe.
    o

    The reserve price is the point at which not selling is better than selling. The alternative in this case is buying gas at currently twice the reserve price and is also subject to market risks. The government has wildly mispriced the reserve price in this instance. They will run another auction next year but it is a lost opportunity.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,438



    Quite. There are certain things that humans find beautiful in buildings, relating to inherited ideals of safety, plenty, security. Ornament, symmetry, natural materials like wood and stone, deep set windows, lush vegetation etc. Brutalist architecture is demonstrably fuck ugly, that's why brutalist architects famously choose to live in Tudor mansions.

    I don't think you can safely generalise about all humans. The place I must enjoyed living in was on the top floor of this:

    https://bdtu.dk/accommodations/property-overview?key=20_2

    - which I suppose you'd see as rather brutalist? Airy flat with two balconies, clean lines devoid of fiddly ornaments, no plants but spacious, and still just £1725/month because the high density makes the building affordable.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 11,138
    Has anyone been to Mid Beds? Would be interesting to know how the poster board war is going. I would expect the LDs to throw the kitchen sink at this to convince voters they are the challenger. Any feedback?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,438
    Lots of action on the Betfair market on mid-Beds - there was briefly crossover in the Lab/Lib price which then reversed, but basically all 3 parties are heading for the 3 price that I've been predicting for a while. I can't help feeling that it's the Tory price that's too long at 3.4 - they seem to me to have a fair chance if the non-Tory vote splits.

    Note: I have no personal knowledge apart from the daily updates from the Labour campaign (basically 3 canvass sessions a day plus leafleting). FWIW I think the Tories should be narrow favourites followed by Labour - the LibDem price seems to me based on projection of previous by-elections where they were generally conceded to be the non-Tory option. I don't see them winning from 12% without a massive Labour tactical vote which just seems unlikely in the light of the level of Labour activity. But Labour will find it tough for the converse reason, even starting from 22%.
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    FF43 said:

    Meanwhile, in Blighty, Sunak's government has wrecked one of the biggest success stories of this period of Tory rule, with the abject failure of the offshore win auction.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms

    It's hard to see Sunak as the safe pair of hands to steward the country that he presented himself as when taking over following the Truss Calamity. Could be more than another year of this? I'd almost rather have Fine Gael...

    Don't they just reopen the auction, LP?

    Surely this is not a lot different to bids not reaching the reserve price - disappointing, but not a catastrophe.
    o

    The reserve price is the point at which not selling is better than selling. The alternative in this case is buying gas at currently twice the reserve price and is also subject to market risks. The government has wildly mispriced the reserve price in this instance. They will run another auction next year but it is a lost opportunity.
    Why did the government get it wrong?

    Overtaken by events (presumably higher interest rates make the capital investment more expensive) or stubborn wishful thinking (we don't WANT to pay more than X, so neerh)?
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588

    Morning all.

    As of today I am less than 1 year from qualifying as a solicitor. Many of you will remember me posting about this before I even attempted the career change 4+ years ago. Many of you have helped me along the way, which I am very grateful for.

    I am involved in many interesting cases and projects for which I obviously but unfortunately cannot talk about but which I am sure would be of great interest to PB!

    Keep those detinue, replevin, market overt, breach of promise, withernam, allowing horses to stray, and entail barring cases rolling in. Very best wishes.

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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    When the betting opened on Mid Beds, Labour were the value. As it stands now with current odds I think the Tories are.

    I still think Lab and LDs will both fight tooth and nail. It would help if some reliable pollsters would do their public duty...
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,029
    edited September 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Strange recurrence of weirdo twitter/X accounts (eg 10 followers, blue tick) making allegations about Chris Packham’s financial arrangements. He’s obviously ruffled a few feathers.

    Geddit?

    https://x.com/ecobarberr/status/1699367373852078151?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    VP of RSPB. The latter currently not flavour of the month with the rightwingers. Vide George Monbiot in the Graun.

    Edit: also dodgy linky in that twatter.
    The Continuity Countryside Alliance certainly appear capable of all sorts of unpleasant vindictiveness. Dead animals on the doorstep and jobbies through the post seem the least of it.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873

    On topic, mid Beds should be the LibDems to pick up, especially now that Tamworth is on the same day. A neat division of activists between the two.

    Doubt it will happen exactly like that, but as I've pointed out when the polling shows a LD win more likely, the question that Labour activists need to ask is do they want to enable the Tories to both scrape home and turn the momentum against them.

    The Lib Dems did not stop their campaign while Mad Nad refused to resign. I think they do indeed have the edge, and the advent of a by-election in Tamworth, where the Lib Dems are nowhere, and which they will not seriously fight does place Labour on the horns of a dilemma. If Labour split their resources they could lose both Tamworth and Mid Beds while the Lib Dems are still better placed in Mid Beds, and have focused all their efforts there. The Labour by election machine is weaker than the Lib Dems, so I think they do have to make a choice very soon.

    If Labour follow their own self interest then one Lib Dem gain, one Labour, two Tory losses. If they screw up they are second in Tamworth and sevond or third in Mid Beds.

    I do not exclude the Tories being third in Mid Beds, and a Lib Dem Labour 1-2, but that would be a bet in the dark, since we really do not know how soft the Tory vote is.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,424
    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Good morning from Wembley Park. Every time I stay here (the Hilton) I always think what a great development this new Wembley Park complex is. Then I remember how much the apartments go for and laugh a little.

    47 today. Was out for dinner last night with a friend from uni who is about to turn 50. Where did the years go?

    Happy birthday.
    Since turning 40 i've been going to the gym almost every day - I have this sudden deep sense within me that I need to hold off decline.
    "Great to see you back, sir. We'd love to know why you've been coming so much so we can appeal to other potential customers about what is drawing you here"

    "I see the grim hand of death drawing ever nearer"

    "So...can i just put the variety of our machines and good customer service?"
    A relative, who did national level sports coaching, is of the opinion that at around 40, you get to decide what happens to you physically for the rest of your life. The bit that you can control that is.

    So if you setup a sustainable pattern of exercise (make sure to include a load of stretching for flexibility) then you can stay mobile and do stuff much longer into old age.

    I reckon the best idea is to find a sport or 2 that match that.
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    Peak R4

    Carnyx said:

    Strange recurrence of weirdo twitter/X accounts (eg 10 followers, blue tick) making allegations about Chris Packham’s financial arrangements. He’s obviously ruffled a few feathers.

    Geddit?

    https://x.com/ecobarberr/status/1699367373852078151?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    VP of RSPB. The latter currently not flavour of the month with the rightwingers. Vide George Monbiot in the Graun.

    Edit: also dodgy linky in that twatter.
    The Continuity Countryside Alliance certainly appear capable of all sorts of unpleasant vindictiveness. Dead animals on the doorstep and jobbies through the post seem the least of it.
    People who enjoy torturing and killing our furry friends turn out to be wrong uns shocker.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157

    Strange recurrence of weirdo twitter/X accounts (eg 10 followers, blue tick) making allegations about Chris Packham’s financial arrangements. He’s obviously ruffled a few feathers.

    Geddit?

    https://x.com/ecobarberr/status/1699367373852078151?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    I'm also getting those targeted tweets. Some money behind it, but also supports RCS' view that the twitter advertising algorithm is broken if I'm getting them.
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    boulay said:

    Am I missing something about the escaped prisoner? They keep banging on about his military training and how it will help him as if he’s Andy McNab with intense evasion training and super strength and fighting skills.

    As far as I can see he did a few years in the Signals. Have I missed he was special forces or do they train signallers how to go undercover in cities and live off their wits these days?

    I was listening to a news report yesterday where they kept saying that they thought he was still in the South West London area, as though travelling in and out of South West London was somehow difficult.
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    In 'that Enoch speaks a lot of sense' news..




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    Meanwhile, in Blighty, Sunak's government has wrecked one of the biggest success stories of this period of Tory rule, with the abject failure of the offshore win auction.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms

    It's hard to see Sunak as the safe pair of hands to steward the country that he presented himself as when taking over following the Truss Calamity. Could be more than another year of this? I'd almost rather have Fine Gael...

    Don't they just reopen the auction, LP?

    Surely this is not a lot different to bids not reaching the reserve price - disappointing, but not a catastrophe.
    I posted about this yesterday. The issue is they have set the CfD price too low and seem to be unwilling to increase it. Particularly as it has direct implications for public finances.

    Moreover it takes many months for companies to work up plans/workflows based on the auction price so this has put a massive delay jnto the next phase of development
    Thanks, Richard. Sorry I missed that.

    I do try to keep up, but at my age...
    No worries sir. It was one off topic posting amongst many hundreds so not surprising it was missed.
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    ...



    Quite. There are certain things that humans find beautiful in buildings, relating to inherited ideals of safety, plenty, security. Ornament, symmetry, natural materials like wood and stone, deep set windows, lush vegetation etc. Brutalist architecture is demonstrably fuck ugly, that's why brutalist architects famously choose to live in Tudor mansions.

    I don't think you can safely generalise about all humans. The place I must enjoyed living in was on the top floor of this:

    https://bdtu.dk/accommodations/property-overview?key=20_2

    - which I suppose you'd see as rather brutalist? Airy flat with two balconies, clean lines devoid of fiddly ornaments, no plants but spacious, and still just £1725/month because the high density makes the building affordable.
    That's because living there you were lucky not to have to look at it.

    In all seriousness though, there's nothing wrong with hig density, the tenement blocks of Edinburgh are high density. There's nothing wrong with clean lines either. But truly beautiful buildings do follow certain immutable traits, that's why decades and centuries after they were built, people take photos of them and go and see them.

    The aesthetic city YT channel has excellent videos about this - this one is very worthwhile viewing: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C9pg2j2oGy0&pp=ygUgd2hhdCBtYWtlcyBhIGJ1aWxkaW5nIGJlYXV0aWZ1bCA=
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    Ontopic: I'm not in this market now. Had a little on Lab early on as a trader (which I've now sold) as they seemed too long and likely to come in a bit. Would actually have done better to lay the LDs as a trading bet, but nevermind.

    Almost tempted by a LD back now, but haven't made up my mind. If Lab go for it full throttle then anything could happen.
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    In 'that Enoch speaks a lot of sense' news..



    You think they are 'extremists'?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,438
    Cicero said:

    On topic, mid Beds should be the LibDems to pick up, especially now that Tamworth is on the same day. A neat division of activists between the two.

    Doubt it will happen exactly like that, but as I've pointed out when the polling shows a LD win more likely, the question that Labour activists need to ask is do they want to enable the Tories to both scrape home and turn the momentum against them.

    The Lib Dems did not stop their campaign while Mad Nad refused to resign. I think they do indeed have the edge, and the advent of a by-election in Tamworth, where the Lib Dems are nowhere, and which they will not seriously fight does place Labour on the horns of a dilemma. If Labour split their resources they could lose both Tamworth and Mid Beds while the Lib Dems are still better placed in Mid Beds, and have focused all their efforts there. The Labour by election machine is weaker than the Lib Dems, so I think they do have to make a choice very soon.

    If Labour follow their own self interest then one Lib Dem gain, one Labour, two Tory losses. If they screw up they are second in Tamworth and sevond or third in Mid Beds.

    I do not exclude the Tories being third in Mid Beds, and a Lib Dem Labour 1-2, but that would be a bet in the dark, since we really do not know how soft the Tory vote is.
    I'm not getting any requests to help Labour in Tamworth yet, but the level of activity in mid-Beds in more intense than anything I've seen, including my own efforts in Broxtowe. We're all trying to be professional about it and I do see why all three parties have to try their best, but I think the LibDem effort is as ill-judged as their attempt in Uxbridge and Portsmouth South in 2019 to say that they were the main challengers to beat Boris (in Portsmouth there was even a sitting Labour MP). They don't IMO have a realistic chance of winning, but they have a good chance of enabling the Tories to hold the seat. I'm sure Theakes will say the same in reverse, though.
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    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just about to read this article which sounds interesting.

    "The ideologues behind the RAAC crisis
    Reckless post-war architects built death-trap institutions
    By Nicholas Boys Smith"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-ideologues-behind-the-raac-crisis/

    I knew Nick at college. Nice guy.
    Not that interesting, sadly. More rant than analysis.
    It seems more a rant against the social aspect of architecture in the post-war years that has been uneasily wrapped up around the RAAC debacle.
    A shame, as there's an excellent case to be made against brutalism:

    1)It looks shit;

    2) The quality is shit;

    3) The life expectancy is shit;

    4) The environmental impact is large and negative;

    5) And it's not even cheap because you have to do so much maintenance.
    Like any type of architecture, there is brutalism done well and brutalism done badly. Survivorship bias tends to mean that earlier building styles look better than newer ones.
    There's also torture done well and torture done badly. But the world would be a better place without any torture.

    Brutalism, whatever the origin of the word, is torture on the eyes. The world would be a more beautiful place if Le Corbusier and others had not lived.
    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/134438129#/media?id=media0&ref=photoCollage&channel=RES_BUY

    This £1mn flat looks pretty nice to me.
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    FF43 said:

    Meanwhile, in Blighty, Sunak's government has wrecked one of the biggest success stories of this period of Tory rule, with the abject failure of the offshore win auction.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms

    It's hard to see Sunak as the safe pair of hands to steward the country that he presented himself as when taking over following the Truss Calamity. Could be more than another year of this? I'd almost rather have Fine Gael...

    Don't they just reopen the auction, LP?

    Surely this is not a lot different to bids not reaching the reserve price - disappointing, but not a catastrophe.
    o

    The reserve price is the point at which not selling is better than selling. The alternative in this case is buying gas at currently twice the reserve price and is also subject to market risks. The government has wildly mispriced the reserve price in this instance. They will run another auction next year but it is a lost opportunity.
    Why did the government get it wrong?

    Overtaken by events (presumably higher interest rates make the capital investment more expensive) or stubborn wishful thinking (we don't WANT to pay more than X, so neerh)?
    Probably a bit of all of that. Mostly I think they were basingvthe CfD rate on expected future energy costs without taking into account the actual current construction costs.

    Once the rate is agreed, if too low, it becomes physically impossible for the energy companies to earn back the construction costs no matter what they do. Hence the reason they are simply not bidding.
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    IcarusIcarus Posts: 952
    kjh said:

    Has anyone been to Mid Beds? Would be interesting to know how the poster board war is going. I would expect the LDs to throw the kitchen sink at this to convince voters they are the challenger. Any feedback?

    We are going mob handed on Sunday from South Leicestershire - will report back.
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    Good morning, everyone.

    Some slight developments on the Government's attempt to destroy encryption because of "protecting children":
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-66716502

    Got an odd weekend ahead. Tomorrow is a post-wedding party for a friend who got married last week. Day after is my parents' 50th wedding anniversary 'do'.

    I think John Major was prime minister last time I went to a party. Hmm. May have been Tony Blair.
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    Meanwhile, in "London Calling to the faraway towns (Romford, Bromley etc)" news, there's a new poll out for the Mayoral election;

    Jeremy Corbyn would deny Sadiq Khan a third term if he runs for London mayor next year, new polling suggests

    Without Corbyn, Khan beats Hall 33 per cent to 32 per cent

    When included, JC polls 15 per cent - Khan 25 per cent, Hall 30 per cent


    Hear more on @TimesRadio shortly

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1700028065185710119

    Caveats: Khan will be counting on ULEZ anger subsiding from here, and there's a lot of ABH votes for him to squeeze, if he can.
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    In 'that Enoch speaks a lot of sense' news..



    You think they are 'extremists'?
    Mogg is extremely 'something'.
    Who could think Murray, a defender of Tommy Robinson, exponent of the Great Replacement theory and believer in the concept of Cultural Marxism an extremist?
This discussion has been closed.