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The Mid Beds betting gets tighter – politicalbetting.com
The Mid Beds betting gets tighter – politicalbetting.com
As most people will know I am a Lib Dem in that I live very close to the mid Bedfordshire constituency where there will be a by-election.
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If you look at the Republican Primary polling from the NYTimes (or others), you see that the Republican Party itself is split into three groups:
(1) The MAGA base, which is about 37-28% of Republican voters. These are the DJT until I die voters.
(2) The "I like Donald, but I worry about his electability". These (another 37-38%) guys will almost certainly vote DJT in the Presidential, and are mostly breaking for him the Primary.
(3) The "Please God, Not Donald" group - which is still 25% of the Republican Party. Now, they may well still vote DJT over Biden, but they are certainly not locked in voters for him.
@nytimes
Mayor Eric Adams escalated his rhetoric over the influx of migrants from the southern border, saying at a town hall meeting that the issue would “destroy New York City” and renewed his push for federal help. https://nyti.ms/3RauFMg"
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1699870166090133951
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/07/tucker-carlson-twitter-larry-sinclair-interview-obama/ (£££)
Beijing makes a mockery of US sanctions with breakthrough in chip technology
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/09/07/why-huawei-new-smartphone-sparked-panic-washington-china-us/ (£££)
And as China shows it can now make advanced chips, its new ban on officials using iphones at work has wiped $200 billion off Apple's market value in two days.
“People of color punching down are absolute trash.”
“I hate this guy so much.”
“This is what voting democrat gets you. A bigoted conservative.”
“I AM BEGGING YOU TO STOP ELECTING COPS”
“This ridiculous fraud @NYCMayor must resign. The immigrants will revitalize this city. If anybody destroys it, it'll be this fool Adams prostituting himself for the police.”
If there's one subject where it's OK to rant, it's ghastly modern architecture and the horrors it has wrought on our society.
It's usually irresistible for politicians and civil servants to follow expert advice, but when those experts are wrong and the usual checks and balances fail, we are left with a complete disaster.
Me: "Did you not make 750,000 dollars?"
Vivek Ramaswamy: "Not at the time I had applied for the [Soros] scholarship."
Me: "Yes you did Vivek. This is awkward for you because you did. I've got the tax returns in front of my face."..
https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1699782281748197506
Hasan is the best political interviewer in the business.
Everyone apart from the architects has been rating for decades and it's changed very little.
It's OK to rant, but not particularly useful.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/sep/07/elon-musk-ordered-starlink-turned-off-ukraine-offensive-biography
...The biography, due out on Tuesday, alleges Musk ordered Starlink engineers to turn off service in the area of the attack because of his concern that Vladimir Putin would respond with nuclear weapons to a Ukrainian attack on Russian-occupied Crimea. He is reported to have said that Ukraine was “going too far” in threatening to inflict a “strategic defeat” on the Kremlin.
Musk’s threats to withdraw Starlink communications at various stages of the conflict have been previously reported, but this is the first time it has been alleged he cut off Ukrainian forces in the middle of a specific operation.
The date of the would-be attack was not specified. Musk reportedly referred to it as a “mini Pearl Harbor”, although Ukrainian forces were operating within their internationally recognised territorial waters...
...
Downing Street has scrambled to kill off fears the deal will mean thousands more student visas amid signs of a growing Tory revolt.
Senior Conservatives warned Rishi that going soft on borders would create a “powder keg” that would reignite civil war in the party.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/23860819/rishi-sunak-rules-out-student-visas-trade-deal-india/
AS ever.
LDEM: 48.1% (+33.5)
CON: 47.1% (-27.8)
LAB: 4.8% (+4.8)
No Green (-10.4) as prev.
Votes cast: 832
LDEM GAIN from Con.
In Newcastle under Lyme two Lab holds on hardly any swing. Seat of @Tissue_Price.
It is the LibDems that seem to manage the big swings.
As of today I am less than 1 year from qualifying as a solicitor. Many of you will remember me posting about this before I even attempted the career change 4+ years ago. Many of you have helped me along the way, which I am very grateful for.
I am involved in many interesting cases and projects for which I obviously but unfortunately cannot talk about but which I am sure would be of great interest to PB!
1)It looks shit;
2) The quality is shit;
3) The life expectancy is shit;
4) The environmental impact is large and negative;
5) And it's not even cheap because you have to do so much maintenance.
Doesn't stop TSE.
We had a Nice Lady Across The Road steal a seat as an Independentat our local Council elections. She was most astonished. Seems like the houses in our row swung it.
So there are lots of wards and constituencies with a fairly large latent Lib Dem vote that can be activated by getting a leaflet or three for the first time. Hence the spectacular swings and the wins from third.
Tell me where they are doing a serious campaign and (right now) that will be where they win.
A Councillor From Walthamstow does not sound like a good fit for mid-Beds. Labour's disappointment in Uxbridge stemmed partly I think from poor candidate selection (plus some enterprising fibbing re ULez, but hey, that's politics!)
I'm sure the Police Commissioner is a worthy chap, but the Fuzz not really having a good Press at the moment.
Local Councillor is always a good bet in a by-Election.
Might have a little dabble on The Peril. Looks a great betting heat.
https://goo.gl/maps/wonnvBCwXqe5NUd7A
When I was down there earlier this year, I went in to have a look around. And... it wasn't terrible. Not necessarily somewhere I'd like to live, but it was clean, tidy and the flats, from the outside, looked relatively well-cared for. There was certainly none of the smell of p*ss that used to avail me in the stairwell of a place I lived for a short period in South London.
The flats won an architecture award in 1966, and were grade-II listed in 1988.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyndham_Court
I know the US isn't itself actually at war with Russia, but by this action Musk directly aided the enemy of a US ally, a country that is heavily sanctioned by the US. It seems incredible that this would not lead to criminal charges. The right-wing in the US are now such brazen traitors to their country.
I don't necessarily buy the "these architects were evil to even try this stuff", but it's probably best not to do any more.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms
It's hard to see Sunak as the safe pair of hands to steward the country that he presented himself as when taking over following the Truss Calamity. Could be more than another year of this? I'd almost rather have Fine Gael...
Brutalism, whatever the origin of the word, is torture on the eyes. The world would be a more beautiful place if Le Corbusier and others had not lived.
Surely this is not a lot different to bids not reaching the reserve price - disappointing, but not a catastrophe.
‘Ezra Collective wins Mercury prize, does this herald a new Jazz Age?’
No, no it doesn’t.
47 today. Was out for dinner last night with a friend from uni who is about to turn 50. Where did the years go?
Doubt it will happen exactly like that, but as I've pointed out when the polling shows a LD win more likely, the question that Labour activists need to ask is do they want to enable the Tories to both scrape home and turn the momentum against them.
The bigger problem is that a project that has already started has been mothballed for the same reasons. Re-running the auction won't help with those projects that went through auctions when the inflation and financing environment was completely different.
It's a very difficult one to call, and the betting reflects that. I'm watching and trying to contrive an all-green book, but so far there has been little price movement.
The hope is they could at least stay home.
If Trump wins a few tight races there may be legal challenges, and its worth remembering that that is fine, if they are frivolous, and if they stop trying to overturn the win if the cases fail.
There's also the possibility that Musk got his instructions from elsewhere. The US does like to fiddle with the controls when fine tuning the Ukrainian offensive capability.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_fortification_of_Guernsey#/media/File:OP_(2).jpg
But was it a Bully XL? That's all that counts on PB those days canine-wise.
a bit like the intractable three-body problem is for mathematicians
I'd just keep an eye out for the mid beds main challenger to become clear before most notice it.
Moreover it takes many months for companies to work up plans/workflows based on the auction price so this has put a massive delay jnto the next phase of development
As far as I can see he did a few years in the Signals. Have I missed he was special forces or do they train signallers how to go undercover in cities and live off their wits these days?
Also some discussions he could be being helped by malign actors though I have no idea how true that is
I don't really see why the latter is necessary as a theory if the former is there. I mean, if you're correct then it's just slander at Elon, no need to speculate about him secretly being an agent of the Biden administration.
"With army training, you too could evade the authorities"
Geddit?
https://x.com/ecobarberr/status/1699367373852078151?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
I do try to keep up, but at my age...
Edit: also dodgy linky in that twatter.
Since turning 40 i've been going to the gym almost every day - I have this sudden deep sense within me that I need to hold off decline.
Maybe we could start some? 'A friend of mine down the pub....'
"I see the grim hand of death drawing ever nearer"
"So...can i just put the variety of our machines and good customer service?"
The reserve price is the point at which not selling is better than selling. The alternative in this case is buying gas at currently twice the reserve price and is also subject to market risks. The government has wildly mispriced the reserve price in this instance. They will run another auction next year but it is a lost opportunity.
https://bdtu.dk/accommodations/property-overview?key=20_2
- which I suppose you'd see as rather brutalist? Airy flat with two balconies, clean lines devoid of fiddly ornaments, no plants but spacious, and still just £1725/month because the high density makes the building affordable.
Note: I have no personal knowledge apart from the daily updates from the Labour campaign (basically 3 canvass sessions a day plus leafleting). FWIW I think the Tories should be narrow favourites followed by Labour - the LibDem price seems to me based on projection of previous by-elections where they were generally conceded to be the non-Tory option. I don't see them winning from 12% without a massive Labour tactical vote which just seems unlikely in the light of the level of Labour activity. But Labour will find it tough for the converse reason, even starting from 22%.
Overtaken by events (presumably higher interest rates make the capital investment more expensive) or stubborn wishful thinking (we don't WANT to pay more than X, so neerh)?
I still think Lab and LDs will both fight tooth and nail. It would help if some reliable pollsters would do their public duty...
If Labour follow their own self interest then one Lib Dem gain, one Labour, two Tory losses. If they screw up they are second in Tamworth and sevond or third in Mid Beds.
I do not exclude the Tories being third in Mid Beds, and a Lib Dem Labour 1-2, but that would be a bet in the dark, since we really do not know how soft the Tory vote is.
So if you setup a sustainable pattern of exercise (make sure to include a load of stretching for flexibility) then you can stay mobile and do stuff much longer into old age.
I reckon the best idea is to find a sport or 2 that match that.
In all seriousness though, there's nothing wrong with hig density, the tenement blocks of Edinburgh are high density. There's nothing wrong with clean lines either. But truly beautiful buildings do follow certain immutable traits, that's why decades and centuries after they were built, people take photos of them and go and see them.
The aesthetic city YT channel has excellent videos about this - this one is very worthwhile viewing: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C9pg2j2oGy0&pp=ygUgd2hhdCBtYWtlcyBhIGJ1aWxkaW5nIGJlYXV0aWZ1bCA=
Almost tempted by a LD back now, but haven't made up my mind. If Lab go for it full throttle then anything could happen.
This £1mn flat looks pretty nice to me.
Once the rate is agreed, if too low, it becomes physically impossible for the energy companies to earn back the construction costs no matter what they do. Hence the reason they are simply not bidding.
Some slight developments on the Government's attempt to destroy encryption because of "protecting children":
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-66716502
Got an odd weekend ahead. Tomorrow is a post-wedding party for a friend who got married last week. Day after is my parents' 50th wedding anniversary 'do'.
I think John Major was prime minister last time I went to a party. Hmm. May have been Tony Blair.
Jeremy Corbyn would deny Sadiq Khan a third term if he runs for London mayor next year, new polling suggests
Without Corbyn, Khan beats Hall 33 per cent to 32 per cent
When included, JC polls 15 per cent - Khan 25 per cent, Hall 30 per cent
Hear more on @TimesRadio shortly
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1700028065185710119
Caveats: Khan will be counting on ULEZ anger subsiding from here, and there's a lot of ABH votes for him to squeeze, if he can.
Who could think Murray, a defender of Tommy Robinson, exponent of the Great Replacement theory and believer in the concept of Cultural Marxism an extremist?