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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion
It is a long time since I’ve looked at EU referendum polling and today’s numbers from YouGov rather surprised me. The gap between EXIT and STAY is getting closer and the party splits are not quite as you’d imagine.
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CBI, TU, Labour, Lib Dems, most CEO's on the one side. The Reactionaries on the other.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8847123/EU-referendum-how-the-MPs-voted.html
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=2013-07-05&number=45
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2013
I don't believe any of the rubbish about the EU preventing wars.
I don't believe for a moment that there would be major disruption of our trade to and from the EU if we left, at least in the short term.
I am concerned about the EZ becoming a dominant bloc making our say less relevant.
The gross inefficiency of the EU and their CAP bugs me.
OTOH it is a big cold world out there and there is some uncertainty about what terms we would get with other large blocs negotiating on our own.
There is clearly a risk about inward investment and tariffs in the medium term.
There is a liklihood that over time the EU would develop rules not to our liking and over which we will have no influence.
I want us to be safe from EZ dominance.
I want subsidiarity to actually be applied instead of being talked about.
I have real reservations about the utility of the European Parliament and would prefer power to stay in the Council of Nations where the UK is a big beast (Scotland would be an irrelevant minnow of course but that is another story).
I do not want EU membership to cost any more and ideally less.
A lot depends on whether Cameron wins the election and then delivers a package that sort of meets most of these shopping lists and points. If Miliband wins and we start the "being at the heart of Europe" nonsense again I will vote for out if the chance comes.
I hate the notion of five more decades of rampant corruption though.
I hate the notion of a small clique of the self-appointed great and the good in a handful of European capitals determinedly making a nation of Europe, whilst excluding any meaningful democratic debate.
I hate that those of us who were skeptical about the Euro (for the very reasons it would ultimately become a mill-stone) were pooh-poohed at the time - and have not had so much as a mumbled "sorry..." from those same strident advocates.
Ideal world, I would like the real threat of our withdrawing to provoke proper, visible change towards a more democratic, less corrupt association of states.
But this is not an ideal world. Which is why we have nukes. Let's tell Germany what we want and when we want it (before May 2015) - or else, boom goes Berlin. How do you like dem apples, Mrs Merkel?
I can't see many 'Bennites' (as in 1981/2) subsequently hijaking the party and forcing it to fight a general election on withdrawal without another referendum, can you?
If the Tories lose in 2015, then I agree it's an altogether different ball-game.
However another key point has to be aired - that nobody gives a flying fox under cherry tree.
The EU is an issue that exercises a loose collaboration of political nerds and malcontents like Morris Dancer and Bob Crow, and precious few others.
There will be no referendum, and no-one normal will give a toffee.
I quite like him - I doubt many Labourites would find that much to disagree with him on, unlike Europhobes, to whom he is the Devil Incarnate.
And don't think the Eurozone crisis is over yet. There's only so long places like Greece and Spain can sustain unemployment of 15%+ before the civil unrest turns nasty.
Polls say PM Ed, no referendum etc.
If we could tweak the EU a little, I could easily vote to stay in, and I think a referendum would be won and clear the air. Although the EU bureaucrats would need to be gagged - they're the best advert for a 'No' vote.
I understand Labour's position, though; why risking losing when you can keep the uncertainty and discomfort the Conservatives. Not so good for the country, but good for the party.
Exit 39 (down 4) Stay 36 (up 3) Don't Know 18 Would not Vote 7%
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/9wqnovujf1/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-100214.pdf
Excluding the Will Not Votes the figures would seem to be:
Exit 42%
Stay 39%
Don't Know 19%
So Exit unchanged from a year ago with a couple of points going from Don't Know to Stay. Still it's close. OGH really should explain his methodology when he manipulates the figures for presentational purposes.
And forget not that the very fact that Cameron would have 'won' in 2015, as majority, minority or in coalition, will have earned him huge kudos from Tory supporters, bearing in mind the seemingly universal consensus (my good self almost excepted) here that he'll be toast at the election.
This time the British Retail Consortium, confirming the Visa UK Consumer Expenditure Index, by reporting that Like-for-Like Retail Sales grew by 3.9% on a Jan 2014 over Jan 2013 basis. Total sales were up 5.4%, against a previous year's (Jan 2013 on Jan 2012) growth rate of 1.9%. The figures evidence the strongest growth rate since March 2010.
Like Visa, the figures hide some wide differences in sectoral performance. Food and Drink sales (food retailers traditionally accounting for around 40% of total sales) fell by 1.9%. Strong competition between the main supermarkets saw food price rises fall to an annual rate of 1.5%, boding well for continued low inflation outcomes.
Overall growth came instead from non-food products whose sales leapt 19.2%, with furniture, flooring and home accessories also recording double digit growth. This switch in share of spend appears to correlate with recent strong growth in new housing completions and general growth in the sales market for residential housing market. High ticket purchases are also indicators of increased consumer confidence in expectations for their household finances.
Kantar, the retail sector research company, have also put some figures to well reported trends within the retail sector. We know the winners in the Christmas season were the top end of the market (Waitrose & John Lewis generally, Sainsburys relatively) and the new market entrant discounters at the bottom end (Aldi and Lidl).
The losers were the 'squeezed middle' (Tesco, Morrisons and Asda). Kantar's market share figures confirm the trend: Waitrose growing 5.6% with a share of 4.9%; Sainsbury up 2.7% gaining 0.1% in market share now 17.1%. Tesco, the market leader, saw sales fall by 0.4%. Biggest gainers in market share were Aldi and Lidl, both of whom enjoyed double digit growth, with their share of the market rising 1.3% to 7.3%.
Some words of caution though are necessary, In January, the overall retail market grew by 2.4% on an annual basis, a slightly slower rate of growth than recorded in December (Kantar). Barclaycard, using similar input data to Visa & Markit, also reported a slowing in consumer spend into the new year: 2.2% in January down from 2.6% in December and 3% in November.
UK figures remain strong and top of the table when compared to our major global competitors, but there is no doubt a slight slowing in the pace of growth from last year: a trend also visible in most comparable international statistics.
In HMA-v-Collins the High Court has today overturned a decision of a Sheriff that requiring a defence agent to give his fingerprint when he had a Law Society ID before he got to see his client in custody was illegal.
http://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/opinions/2014HCJAC11.html?utm_source=Newsletters&utm_campaign=28b946d94d-SLN_11_02_14&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1eedb22a32-28b946d94d-65388281
Sometimes I worry about our Judges, I really do.
You sound more like a Libertarian to me - but my general point stands
Have you asked Nabavi, Avery and Fitalass how they will vote ?
http://www.eu-oplysningen.dk/euo_en/spsv/all/79/
'Well, the last time they won an election was 22 years ago, and it's far from clear they will ever win one again'
How many times did we hear that nonsense when Labour didn't win an election for 23 years.
They can only cry wolf so many times before people get wise to their lies.
"Not so good for the country, but good for the party."
That wasn't meant to be a compliment.
Currently, I'd join the fruitcakes and vote to leave unless we had changes; there's a lot wrong at the moment. I used to go to Brussels for EU meetings (albeit on the scientific side), and can't say I was impressed with the professional politicians.But as we were "on tap" rather than "on top", it's probably a biased view.
What's missing from the above equation is the media. Pretty much every major newspaper would be Out, with only the FT, Indy/i (if still going) and Guardian would definately be In. The Beeb would tend towards In in their worldview way with Sky more genuinely neutral.
Ultimately, the swing vote would be the Tory one, and that would depend very much on (1) what (if anything) Cameron is able to win back, and (2) how the internal Conservative balance pans out in terms of who recommends what. If the general Tory line was Out, that would win.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ--Srz5yk0
There's good news from the restoration of natural reservoirs in the form of peat bogs on Exmoor
This is the sort of thing those pesky environmentalists go on about. Restore some natural environment to hold water in the hills and you even out the water flow, reducing the severity of both floods and droughts.
Was there ever a madder project in modern UK political history? I guess the nearest equivalent is the split on the left in the 1980s, but that at least was a split with a purpose: the loony left wanted something not on offer. UKIP seem to be miffed precisely because they are being offered what they want.
The only newspaper I would be certain would be Out at present is the Express. The Mail and the Sun in particular might well end up In if they decided that they wanted to be on the winning side and could see the current flowing that way.
- PR for the Lords (with enhanced powers)
- PR for local elections
- Voting reform for the Commons.
I'm pretty sure the Tories wouldn't accept that last one but either of the other two should be acceptable (or both in return for cast-iron boundary reform).
In anticipation of some kind of vote I think the advocates of staying in would be better off sharpening their arguments beyond "only fruitcakes want us to leave". I cant see that one working very well.
Not sure that is a winning slogan for you.
The champ tries to get the fight on his terms when he feels he has best chance of retaining his title, and taunts the challenger for not accepting there and then.
So it is with UKIP and the Tory offer of a referendum held by Election majority winning Europhile PM Cameron
If you think that UKIP should offer an electoral pact to the Conservatives, tell us where you think the Conservatives should stand down in favour of UKIP candidates, in return for UKIP not running candidates against Conservatives.
The sensible course of action for UKIP is to maximise support, and electoral representation.
It was also interesting seeing the comments prior to these floods that an acre of trees retains 90 times more rain water than an acre of grass and of course an acre of concrete retains none at all.
Working with nature to solve these problems has to be the way forward.
This might require a reverse takeover of the Conservatives by UKIP - perhaps creating the Conservative and Independence Party? - but it seems to be a more sure way to leave the EU then holding a referendum. What happens if a BOO PM becomes unpopular for unrelated reasons? A referendum could easily be lost because voters were annoyed about the flooding of Bridgwater...
That's because under the "European Financial Services Passport" basically allows any EU firm to sell financial services to any person in the EU under common regulation. If we want to sell asset management products (basically, a mutual fund) to a person in Switzerland (outside the EEA), then we need to use a local agent who takes around 60% of the fees. The same is true in Canada or Australia. (And in the US, it is more like 75% of the fees, which explains why we have no US clients...)
While larger asset managers like Schroders, Blackrock or Goldman Sachs would be largely unaffected (they have offices in every country already); if we were to leave the European Economic Area, it would be an absolute disaster for our business as only about a third of clients are UK based. We would need to open satellite offices in Europe, or accept half the current level of fees. My wife has pushed for a third option, which would be to relocate to somewhere sunnier in continental Europe. But I'm not sure that would fly :-)
Of course, if we were to leave the EU, but stay in the EEA, then it would be fine (and would save about €5bn/year). But it is worth remembering that the flip side of that is that we would basically be required to adhere to EU legislation (as well as the famous Four Freedoms), without having any say on it.
Now that our eyes have been opened to the useless Tories, there's no going back. If Ukip didn't stand in elections - and I am very politically aware and interested - then I simply would not vote. I will NOT be expected to go to the polls to vote for three main parties which are identical in policy.
1) Elect a government which will hold an In/Out referendum. That couldn't be easier: vote Conservative, there's no other way, and it's 100% guaranteed to succeed if there is a Conservative government.
2) Put together a coherent case for what exit would mean in practice. For example, agree once and for all a sensible answer on whether we would remain in the EEA (and if the answer is No, which is what I would recommend since remaining in the EEA but not the EU is the worse of both worlds - sorry Smithson Jnr!), stop citing Norway and Switzerland as models. The Out side would have the great advantage of a free hand in defining what model they wanted, whereas the In side would be conflicted and also unable to specify what the renegotiation would bring.
3) Win the referendum by building a really good campaign, taking full advantage of people like Dan Hannan, who is very persuasive.
That is the only strategy which could work in any less than a timescale of decades. I think the likelihood is that it wouldn't work, but that's because the Out side have not made a coherent case to voters, and because the status quo is hard to shift. On the other hand, even if it doesn't work, there would be likely to be some disengagement as part of renegotiation, so it's a 'Head we win, tail we get a bit back' stategy.
I think he would be toast one way or another. Which puts the Lib Dems in a remarkably strong position, as the Tories have idolised a policy above all else.
Of course, if the right-wing Tories were a little less thick and a little more strategic, they'd refer to the 2011 Act which implemented the Lib Dem 2010 manifesto commitment of an in-out referendum at the time of the next treaty transferring powers to Brussels, and instead push for an EU treaty that all paperclip regulation governance should now be done at EU level.....
So for a Tory majority to occur either a) Scotland votes for independence or b) the miracle occurs. Either way what would Cameron be like with a Tory majority and how would his majority treat him? Could Cameron survive as leader whilst remaining committed to lead the Stay campaign or even committed to stay in at any cost? Could he actually survive as leader until 2017 (especially if he has lost Scotland with all that the subsequent negotiations entail).
Then comes the negotiation with all the machinations that will be going on alongside it (and possibly it occurring in tandem with the Scottish independence negotiation). Exactly what will Cameron deliver on immigration, on the ECJ, ECHR, CAP CFP, financial freedom, contributions, the social chapter, environment and climate change, aid, business regulation etc etc? It will be an enormous task to put together a package sufficient to carry the majority. That is particularly so given that repeated polling suggests a large majority of people actually when it comes down to it, favour a position (a trading zone only) that would currently demand we withdraw from the EU. Such detailed examination of our relationship with the EU is almost certain to highlight such a reality to the vast majority of the electorate.
However, even if he manages to get to the referendum campaign unscathed with his views in tact imagine the campaign? Imagine Cameron and Miliband (with whoever is leading the Libdems by them trailing along behind) attempting to share the same platform. Talk about an odd couple.
Who would they be up against? Farage almost certainly but who would be the leaders of the Tory Eurosceptic group Hannan? Callanan (if he survives)? Redwood? Carswell? Jenkin? Which ministers would join the Exit campaign? For Cameron and the Tories the campaign is fraught with risk especially if it is decided in certain circles to take Cameron out (much as Clegg was in the AV campaign). Whatever way it is not likely to be pretty for the Tories. I would expect a lot of pent up frustration with Cameron in certain quarters to be vented.
I really have no idea how a referendum might turnout in 2017