politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The February ICM Guardian poll sees the LDs the big losers

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The February ICM Guardian poll sees the LDs the big losers with the three others all moving forwaes

UKIP in third place behind Tories in new ICM poll for May's Euro elections pic.twitter.com/tSP71pBNiD

Read the full story here

bigjohnowls

Fascinating

TheScreamingEagles

The return to 2 party politics?

That Euros poll is interesting.

Kippers in third eh?

TheScreamingEagles

With this ICM poll and with Populus' new weightings, all the pollsters have the Yellow Peril in 4th place behind the Kippers.

AveryLP

Kippers seem to be losing their bite.

A shortage of Poligrip no doubt.

isam

If this poll is even remotely accurate, the 8/5, the 6/4 & even the shortest price 11/8 for Labour to get most votes in the Euro Elections is the biggest value bet in living memory.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/most-votes

Either the bookies or ICM are wrong, who is it?

bigjohnowls

If true amazing result for labour.

TheScreamingEagles

Another poll conducted during the floods that show the Tories going up.

Morris_Dancer

FPT: Mr. Eagles, maybe the south-westerners who are anti-Conservative will end up flocking to the purples.

They still need to build up a Faragian Guard, though.

On-topic: I'll be voting UKIP at the European Elections. I still think they'll come top.

TGOHF

LDs down 4 (FOUR) ?

Rennardian ?

Quincel

That is a sensational Euro poll, to the extent that I simply cannot believe it. Also perhaps the first piece of news in months to give both main parties something to cheer. If it comes true, of course.

El_Capitano

What odds of the Greens finishing ahead of the LibDems?

JohnO

TheScreamingEagles said:

The return to 2 party politics?

That Euros poll is interesting.

Kippers in third eh?

Presumably loads of BNP voters last time returning to Labour.

Make white folks angry, eh?

Neil

@isam

I dont think ICM are necessarily wrong, I just think that UKIP can improve strongly in the run-up to May as their coverage soars. That doesnt mean ICM is wrong to find them at much lower levels of support now.

TheScreamingEagles

isam said:

If this poll is even remotely accurate, the 8/5, the 6/4 & even the shortest price 11/8 for Labour to get most votes in the Euro Elections is the biggest value bet in living memory.

Either the bookies or ICM are wrong, who is it?

YouGov and other pollsters have had Labour first for the Euros.

So I think it is the bookies that are wrong, and have bet accordingly.

JohnO

TGOHF said:

LDs down 4 (FOUR) ?

Rennardian ?

Who is apparently threatening to take the LibDems to court unless reinstated by Thursday (OK, bit early to go off thread)

Neil

El_Capitano said:

What odds of the Greens finishing ahead of the LibDems?

5/2?

I'm not laying, just suggesting what a fair price could be.

dr_spyn

Presentation by The Rt Hon Ed Miliband - dark blue letters on light blue background...trying to be more blue than Dave?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. O, is it ever too early to go off-thread? I was about to ask whether 'auto' was Greek or Latin (decided to try a different approach, so it didn't matter).

isam

Neil said:

@isam

I dont think ICM are necessarily wrong, I just think that UKIP can improve strongly in the run-up to May as their coverage soars. That doesnt mean ICM is wrong to find them at much lower levels of support now.

The Even money favourites 15% behind the 8/5 shots with the gold standard polling company?

Sometimes we can read to much into things, Labour must be a massive bet

TGOHF

Others down -14% ? Seriously ?

AveryLP

Neil said:

@isam

I dont think ICM are necessarily wrong, I just think that UKIP can improve strongly in the run-up to May as their coverage soars. That doesnt mean ICM is wrong to find them at much lower levels of support now.

Do ICM take into account the coincidence of the Euro elections with locals?

My very vague understanding of the upcoming poll is that the locals this time are the Labour controlled metropolitans and unitaries, building in a bias to Labour as the shires and small towns may be reluctant to turn out just for the Euros.

Am I talking utter Shadow Chancellors, Neil?

Richard_Nabavi

On the Westminster VI: January's poll was a bit unusual in giving the LibDems 14% - recent ICM polls have tended to show them at 12 or 13%, so the drop in this poll is probably partly noise. It's hard to see why they would have lost a third of their support in a month.

Otherwise this is fairly consistent with the picture over the last few months of Labour on 35% to 38%, Con on 30% to 34%.

Neil

isam said:

Neil said:

@isam

I dont think ICM are necessarily wrong, I just think that UKIP can improve strongly in the run-up to May as their coverage soars. That doesnt mean ICM is wrong to find them at much lower levels of support now.

The Even money favourites 15% behind the 8/5 shots with the gold standard polling company?

Sometimes we can read to much into things, Labour must be a massive bet

I'm not saying there isnt value to be had, just that the two may not be as inconsistent as they first appear. I cant remember exactly how much UKIP's polling improved from Jan to May in 2009 but I'm sure it went up strongly (UKPR will have the actual numbers). There is good reason to expect it to increase again in 2014 - TV will have to give them even more coverage in the run up to May due to their 2nd place last time.

TheScreamingEagles

TGOHF said:

Others down -14% ? Seriously ?

Yeah, BNP polled 6.3% last time, add in the assorted, Christians, English Democrats, Socialist Lab, No2EU etc who polled around 8% and it is plausible

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)

JohnO

AveryLP said:

Neil said:

@isam

I dont think ICM are necessarily wrong, I just think that UKIP can improve strongly in the run-up to May as their coverage soars. That doesnt mean ICM is wrong to find them at much lower levels of support now.

Do ICM take into account the coincidence of the Euro elections with locals?

My very vague understanding of the upcoming poll is that the locals this time are the Labour controlled metropolitans and unitaries, building in a bias to Labour as the shires and small towns may be reluctant to turn out just for the Euros.

Am I talking utter Shadow Chancellors, Neil?

No, Most Notable Custodian of the Yellow Box, you speak words of truth.

Plus all the London Boroughs.

Neil

@AveryLP

I'm sure the turnout filter isnt sophisticated enough to take this into account (I doubt people in , say, London, are saying they'll definitely turnout to vote because their borough council elections are on the same day) but I'm also not sure it's as significant an effect as all that.

MarkSenior

TheScreamingEagles said:

With this ICM poll and with Populus' new weightings, all the pollsters have the Yellow Peril in 4th place behind the Kippers.

Not Ipsos Mori

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the Westminster VI: January's poll was a bit unusual in giving the LibDems 14% - recent ICM polls have tended to show them at 12 or 13%, so the drop in this poll is probably partly noise. It's hard to see why they would have lost a third of their support in a month.

Otherwise this is fairly consistent with the picture over the last few months of Labour on 35% to 38%, Con on 30% to 34%.

Two words, Lord and Rennard.

TheScreamingEagles

MarkSenior said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

With this ICM poll and with Populus' new weightings, all the pollsters have the Yellow Peril in 4th place behind the Kippers.

Not Ipsos Mori

Oops.

JohnO

JohnO said:

AveryLP said:

Neil said:

@isam

I dont think ICM are necessarily wrong, I just think that UKIP can improve strongly in the run-up to May as their coverage soars. That doesnt mean ICM is wrong to find them at much lower levels of support now.

Do ICM take into account the coincidence of the Euro elections with locals?

My very vague understanding of the upcoming poll is that the locals this time are the Labour controlled metropolitans and unitaries, building in a bias to Labour as the shires and small towns may be reluctant to turn out just for the Euros.

Am I talking utter Shadow Chancellors, Neil?

No, Most Notable Custodian of the Yellow Box, you speak words of truth.

Plus all the London Boroughs.

Actually, Avery, I've just remembered that those shire District Councils (mostly Tory) who elect in thirds will also be polling on May 22nd.

Shame for forgetting - mine is one of them!

MarkSenior

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the Westminster VI: January's poll was a bit unusual in giving the LibDems 14% - recent ICM polls have tended to show them at 12 or 13%, so the drop in this poll is probably partly noise. It's hard to see why they would have lost a third of their support in a month.

Otherwise this is fairly consistent with the picture over the last few months of Labour on 35% to 38%, Con on 30% to 34%.

Two words, Lord and Rennard.

Except that is not shown with other pollsters . Best to wait for the full data tables .

TheScreamingEagles

Balls, I'm guest editing the site, when the Euro results come out, on the 25th of May.

But that evening I'm seeing the Nine Inch Nails.

TheScreamingEagles

MarkSenior said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the Westminster VI: January's poll was a bit unusual in giving the LibDems 14% - recent ICM polls have tended to show them at 12 or 13%, so the drop in this poll is probably partly noise. It's hard to see why they would have lost a third of their support in a month.

Otherwise this is fairly consistent with the picture over the last few months of Labour on 35% to 38%, Con on 30% to 34%.

Two words, Lord and Rennard.

Except that is not shown with other pollsters . Best to wait for the full data tables .

I know, correlation doesn't mean causation.

Richard_Nabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the Westminster VI: January's poll was a bit unusual in giving the LibDems 14% - recent ICM polls have tended to show them at 12 or 13%, so the drop in this poll is probably partly noise. It's hard to see why they would have lost a third of their support in a month.

Otherwise this is fairly consistent with the picture over the last few months of Labour on 35% to 38%, Con on 30% to 34%.

Two words, Lord and Rennard.

Maybe, but YouGov and Populus don't seem to be showing a big Rennard effect over that period. There could be some effect, but I'm sceptical that it is as big as you'd think by taking the ICM figures in isolation.

smithersjones2013

FPT

JohnO said:

» show previous quotes
Hey, I'm a mystic. Lab on 38 and the lead increased (abeit by just 1).

VERY interesting on the Euros though. Kippers won't be pleased.

Its not of that much concern given that ICM are not renowned for the Euro poll accuracy.

If you look at their 2009 performance and average their three 2009 polls the variance from the result was:

Con -2.6%
Lab -7.3%
LD -6.3%
UKIP +7%
Grn +1.1%
BNP +4%

Consequently that sort of variance would suggest figures along the lines of:

Lab 28%
UKIP 27%
Con 22%
Grn 8%
LD 3%

Now whilst I certainly don't expect the Libdems to sink that low ICM are known to be amongst the more generous on Libdem figures.

In reality the Euro polls tend to be a lottery but this ICM one doesn't cause any concern for UKIP except perhaps the propaganda value that it being reported provides.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/european-elections

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, you mean to tell me sales of ice-cream don't make people drown?!

Hope you can find someone to cover for you.

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

Others down -14% ? Seriously ?

Yeah, BNP polled 6.3% last time, add in the assorted, Christians, English Democrats, Socialist Lab, No2EU etc who polled around 8% and it is plausible

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)

Incredible that UKIP are apparently picking up such huge percentages from others and DNVs in GE polling, but barely any from a much bigger proportion of those voters in the Euros

TheLastBoyScout

It will be a generational election this - Gen X and Y vs the Baby Boomers.
Put another way, those of working age solidly in the Red corner, retirees solidly in the Blue.
It's confirmed almost daily by YouGov.

Decent ICM for Labour.

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

Two words, Lord and Rennard.

I'm not sure whether your tongue is in your cheek or not. But as one of the people saying the Rennard situation was bad for the Lib Dems I'm also pretty sure it hasnt cut their support that either. It will have an effect at the margins and on activism but not so that it is noticeable in polling.

I think pbc often overreacts to polling - "Lib Dems solid so Rennard not impacting them", "Labour down so 50p rate policy is hurting". These are just not conclusions that the data can support very easily. A recent exception is the impact of the 2012 Budget on the Tories, I think that was significant and sustained enough to be plausibly explained by the mess that Osborne made then. Otherwise people just generally arent even paying attention to the things that obsess us on a daily basis.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the Westminster VI: January's poll was a bit unusual in giving the LibDems 14% - recent ICM polls have tended to show them at 12 or 13%, so the drop in this poll is probably partly noise. It's hard to see why they would have lost a third of their support in a month.

Otherwise this is fairly consistent with the picture over the last few months of Labour on 35% to 38%, Con on 30% to 34%.

Two words, Lord and Rennard.

Maybe, but YouGov and Populus don't seem to be showing a big Rennard effect over that period. There could be some effect, but I'm sceptical that it is as big as you'd think by taking the ICM figures in isolation.

You're probably right, it's probably just noise.

What I can't work out is why the big two have gone up 5% in a month.

AveryLP

JohnO said:

JohnO said:

AveryLP said:

Neil said:

@isam

I dont think ICM are necessarily wrong, I just think that UKIP can improve strongly in the run-up to May as their coverage soars. That doesnt mean ICM is wrong to find them at much lower levels of support now.

Do ICM take into account the coincidence of the Euro elections with locals?

My very vague understanding of the upcoming poll is that the locals this time are the Labour controlled metropolitans and unitaries, building in a bias to Labour as the shires and small towns may be reluctant to turn out just for the Euros.

Am I talking utter Shadow Chancellors, Neil?

No, Most Notable Custodian of the Yellow Box, you speak words of truth.

Plus all the London Boroughs.

Actually, Avery, I've just remembered that those shire District Councils (mostly Tory) who elect in thirds will also be polling on May 22nd.

Shame for forgetting - mine is one of them!

Thanks John.

The effortless and languid confidence with which you rule the Surrey dogging lands is to be applauded.

My real question though was whether ICM, in seeking Euro VIs, assumed that all their poll respondents would be equally incented to vote, or, whether they controlled for dofferential turnout likely to be caused by partial coincidence of the locals and Euros?

MrJones

FPT

Morris_Dancer said:

I'm not convinced this will be as significant as it might be. The number of people affected (40 households a week or two ago, accoridng to ITV, which was staggeringly low given the coverage), and the prolonged and heavy nature of the rain will probably lead many to conclude that whilst dredging's a good idea there was, frankly, little that could've been done to stop enormous tracts of land being flooded.

I expect there's a document somewhere listing all the places where it would be easiest to meet EU biodiversity targets by just adding water. A party like Ukip wouldn't need to claim anything - just put the list of constituencies up.

(I'd also expect a larger negative impact on the Cameroons as they just sat there and took beatings from the BBC because they didn't want to say anything negative about the EU.)

TheLastBoyScout

@MarkSenior

I very much doubt Rennard has had any effect. These so-called scandals that exercise people on here make little difference to the public - see also Ashcroft, Falkirk.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, you mean to tell me sales of ice-cream don't make people drown?!

Hope you can find someone to cover for you.

It's alright, I'll cope, I've written a thread whilst at the cinema.

TheScreamingEagles

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

Others down -14% ? Seriously ?

Yeah, BNP polled 6.3% last time, add in the assorted, Christians, English Democrats, Socialist Lab, No2EU etc who polled around 8% and it is plausible

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)

Incredible that UKIP are apparently picking up such huge percentages from others and DNVs in GE polling, but barely any from a much bigger proportion of those voters in the Euros

The other thing we're going to have to look at post May is the number of actual votes cast, and the difference from 2009.

Which may or may not give an indicator for 2015.

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Two words, Lord and Rennard.

I'm not sure whether your tongue is in your cheek or not. But as one of the people saying the Rennard situation was bad for the Lib Dems I'm also pretty sure it hasnt cut their support that either. It will have an effect at the margins and on activism but not so that it is noticeable in polling.

I think pbc often overreacts to polling - "Lib Dems solid so Rennard not impacting them", "Labour down so 50p rate policy is hurting". These are just not conclusions that the data can support very easily. A recent exception is the impact of the 2012 Budget on the Tories, I think that was significant and sustained enough to be plausibly explained by the mess that Osborne made then. Otherwise people just generally arent even paying attention to the things that obsess us on a daily basis.

My tongue was in the vicinity of my cheek.

My own theorem is that the ICM have the best figures for the Lib Dems, so if there is a shift we'd see it there.

AlastairMeeks

May is a big moment for UKIP. I'd be surprised if they tallied as little as 20% in the EU elections. Given current expectations, that would count as a failure.

MarkSenior

JohnO said:

JohnO said:

AveryLP said:

Neil said:

@isam

I dont think ICM are necessarily wrong, I just think that UKIP can improve strongly in the run-up to May as their coverage soars. That doesnt mean ICM is wrong to find them at much lower levels of support now.

Do ICM take into account the coincidence of the Euro elections with locals?

My very vague understanding of the upcoming poll is that the locals this time are the Labour controlled metropolitans and unitaries, building in a bias to Labour as the shires and small towns may be reluctant to turn out just for the Euros.

Am I talking utter Shadow Chancellors, Neil?

No, Most Notable Custodian of the Yellow Box, you speak words of truth.

Plus all the London Boroughs.

Actually, Avery, I've just remembered that those shire District Councils (mostly Tory) who elect in thirds will also be polling on May 22nd.

Shame for forgetting - mine is one of them!

There are now only around 60 shire districts elected by thirds and only half of those are Conservative controlled .

TheScreamingEagles

Just for fun, the Pro-Eu parties are going to poll 51% at the Euros.

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just for fun, the Pro-Eu parties are going to poll 51% at the Euros.

But those in favour of an in-out referendum poll (at least) 52%!

anotherDave

Re: Westminster ICM

10% seems to be a new low for the LDs with ICM. Rogue poll, or have ICM made a change?

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm

FrankBooth

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the Westminster VI: January's poll was a bit unusual in giving the LibDems 14% - recent ICM polls have tended to show them at 12 or 13%, so the drop in this poll is probably partly noise. It's hard to see why they would have lost a third of their support in a month.

Otherwise this is fairly consistent with the picture over the last few months of Labour on 35% to 38%, Con on 30% to 34%.

Two words, Lord and Rennard.

If only he was still running the party.......

On ICM - it's a big shift but the Lib Dems have been doing badly for a while with YouGov so not a shock as such. Perhaps everyone is getting ready for the Euros now. The Tories do appear to be on the up to be fair to them, Cameron now must be expected to better William Hague's 2001 vote share. I can't help but feel a little mischievous pleasure in the Tories getting credit for the recovery and the Lib Dems heading backwards. If the worst comes to the worst and Cameron wins in 2015 there's always the consolation that it will be a great humiliation for Clegg, who'll look a complete idiot.

SMukesh

UKIP polled 16% in Euro 2009.It`s not even remotely believable that they`ll poll 20 this time.

I would be interested to see how ICM adjust the figures for the Euro poll.

TheLastBoyScout

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Two words, Lord and Rennard.

I'm not sure whether your tongue is in your cheek or not. But as one of the people saying the Rennard situation was bad for the Lib Dems I'm also pretty sure it hasnt cut their support that either. It will have an effect at the margins and on activism but not so that it is noticeable in polling.

I think pbc often overreacts to polling - "Lib Dems solid so Rennard not impacting them", "Labour down so 50p rate policy is hurting". These are just not conclusions that the data can support very easily. A recent exception is the impact of the 2012 Budget on the Tories, I think that was significant and sustained enough to be plausibly explained by the mess that Osborne made then. Otherwise people just generally arent even paying attention to the things that obsess us on a daily basis.

Quite right. We had minute by minute 'updates' on Falkirk on here. Actual impact - zero.

TheLastBoyScout

What's ICM without the Shy Tory adjustment?

smithersjones2013

TheLastBoyScout said:

It will be a generational election this - Gen X and Y vs the Baby Boomers.
Put another way, those of working age solidly in the Red corner, retirees solidly in the Blue.
It's confirmed almost daily by YouGov.

Decent ICM for Labour.

If find that difficult to believe given that the vast majority of baby boomers, those born between 1950 and 1964 will still be working. Now if you are suggesting its Post WWII against those who lived through and before the 2nd World War then by all means go ahead. Why you would want to discriminate between the two groups I have no idea?

What is it with a certain type of individuals preoccupation with the Baby Boomers? They weren't even the subject of the biggest baby boom in this country in recent times. That honour goes to the swinging sixties Baby Boom which was much longer and consequently involves significantly larger numbers. Its only when Gen Y (Cameron's generation) retire that we are going to have the really serious problems with funding the elderly.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp99/rp99-111.pdf

Page 7 of the above has a graph which refers

nigel4england

SMukesh said:

UKIP polled 16% in Euro 2009.It`s not even remotely believable that they`ll poll 20 this time

What do you think the figure will be

anotherDave

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

Others down -14% ? Seriously ?

Yeah, BNP polled 6.3% last time, add in the assorted, Christians, English Democrats, Socialist Lab, No2EU etc who polled around 8% and it is plausible

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)

Incredible that UKIP are apparently picking up such huge percentages from others and DNVs in GE polling, but barely any from a much bigger proportion of those voters in the Euros

Survation and YouGov produced identical EU polls last month:

Con 23% , Lab 32%, LD 9%, UKIP 26%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014

Richard_Tyndall

FPT

Nick Palmer

"Without trying to break down the figures in detail, I can confirm that we had a big flood prevention scheme installed west of Nottingham by the EA a couple of years ago (after a controversy about the exact route). Possibly as a result, we've not been affected by flooding. In general I usually found the EA one of the more responsive agencies."

You clearly don't remember the massive floods in the Trent Valley in November 2000 when the EA decided to (literally) open the flood gates and flood the lower Trent including large areas around Newark. They kindly informed the local TV so they could be on the scene to watch the flood waters overwhelm the local defences but somehow forgot to tell the local councils downstream so that they could be prepared.

Morris_Dancer

Incidentally, I wonder if the changing type of retirement will alter voting in the future. More elderly people are taking pensions whilst still working full- or part-time, which gives them a stake in both employment and pension areas. There will be (and to an extent already is) less of a big black dividing line between Work and Retirement than there was in the past.

SMukesh

nigel4england said:

SMukesh said:

UKIP polled 16% in Euro 2009.It`s not even remotely believable that they`ll poll 20 this time

What do you think the figure will be

Atleast 25|%

Richard_Tyndall

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just for fun, the Pro-Eu parties are going to poll 51% at the Euros.

But those in favour of an in-out referendum poll (at least) 52%!

Not sure that is anything illogical. I am sure there will be plenty of Pro-EU people who believe in their cause and also believe that it is right that people are given a choice. Actually I am a little surprised that the numbers in favour of an in-out referendum are so low.

Richard_Tyndall

Amused seeing the Greenpeace spokesman spouting the usual misinformation on Channel 4 this evening.

For a more reasoned and factually based overview of the issues around the floods in Somerset this is a good summary.

http://www.waterpowermagazine.com/features/featurefloods-on-the-somerset-levels-a-sad-tale-of-ignorance-and-neglect-4172602/

Interesting that the sorts of rainfall we are seeing is seen on average every 50 years.

"There was serious flooding in 1854, 1872-3 and 1929-30. During the latter flood at Taunton, from November 1929 to January 1930 537mm were recorded, which is over 70% of the annual average. The floods lasted from December to February. For the same time period in 2013-14 the rainfall in the upper Brue, which drains into the Levels, was 434mm.

An analysis of the highest consecutive three monthly rainfall since 1766 shows that this is the fifth highest, giving it a return period of about 1 in 50 years. This result excludes 1960, when Bedlamgreen in the upper Brue recorded 556mm. Before 1766 possibly the worst flood in historical times was that of 1607"

Neil

Richard_Tyndall said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just for fun, the Pro-Eu parties are going to poll 51% at the Euros.

But those in favour of an in-out referendum poll (at least) 52%!

Not sure that is anything illogical. I am sure there will be plenty of Pro-EU people who believe in their cause and also believe that it is right that people are given a choice. Actually I am a little surprised that the numbers in favour of an in-out referendum are so low.

Sorry - I was just adding up the Tory / UKIP / Green voteshare there not reporting a proportion of voters who might want an in-out referendum, I'm sure that's probably higher.

Pulpstar

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just for fun, the Pro-Eu parties are going to poll 51% at the Euros.

But those in favour of an in-out referendum poll (at least) 52%!

Greens are in favour of an in-out poll ?

If so, good on them !

NickPalmer

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

Others down -14% ? Seriously ?

Yeah, BNP polled 6.3% last time, add in the assorted, Christians, English Democrats, Socialist Lab, No2EU etc who polled around 8% and it is plausible

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)

This is a context where Richard N's "hovering pencil" probably does have an effect - faced with a choice of 9-10 parties in the polling booth, it's likely that minnows who people were barely aware of like these get some votes that weren't shown up in the polls, sometimes even by mistake.

All the same, TSE is probably right to think Labour 1st in the Euro is value at current odds. Without giving away deep secrets I will say the party is tackling them more seriously than I recall on the last two occasions (not difficult - last time the CLP got enough leaflets to cover a quarter of the constituency and were told to "distribute them wherever you think will do most good"). +19 sounds a bit startling though!

Richard Tyndall - I remember the floods as i was involved in a small way in relief efforts at Attenborough (where several streets were affected), but I'd not heard what you report about an EA cockup.

Neil

Pulpstar said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just for fun, the Pro-Eu parties are going to poll 51% at the Euros.

But those in favour of an in-out referendum poll (at least) 52%!

Greens are in favour of an in-out poll ?

If so, good on them !

http://greenparty.org.uk/news/yes-to-an-eu-referendum-green-mp-calls-for-chance-to-build-a-better-europe.html

There's a significant (but probably minority) eurosceptic wing to the party in England and Wales but (having been an MEP) I'm sure Caroline's support for the referendum was more because it was time to have one and that when push comes to shove she'd advocate an in vote.

Pulpstar

It is a nicely different attitude from the paternalistic patronising "we know best" attitude of the other Pro-EU parties. My Lib Dem friend is terrified of giving the people a say.

isam

@TheLastBoyScout

FPT

re Jan Smuts

Was just kidding, making the comparison for why UKIP voters don't campaign for Cameron to be PM

TheLastBoyScout

@SmithersJones

Cameron is Gen X not Gen Y.
The Baby Boomers are born 46-64, not 50-64.
Some are retired, some are working.
But it's a Blue cohort.
Gens X and Y are solidly Red.
This election will pit generation against generation.

Richard_Tyndall

NickPalmer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

Others down -14% ? Seriously ?

Yeah, BNP polled 6.3% last time, add in the assorted, Christians, English Democrats, Socialist Lab, No2EU etc who polled around 8% and it is plausible

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)

This is a context where Richard N's "hovering pencil" probably does have an effect - faced with a choice of 9-10 parties in the polling booth, it's likely that minnows who people were barely aware of like these get some votes that weren't shown up in the polls, sometimes even by mistake.

All the same, TSE is probably right to think Labour 1st in the Euro is value at current odds. without giving away deep secrets I will say the party is tackling them more seriously than I recall on the last two occasions (not difficult - last time the CLP got enough leaflets to cover a quarter of the constituency and were told to "distribute them wherever you think will do most good"). +19 sounds a bit startling though!

Richard Tyndall - I remember the floods as i was involved in a small way in relief efforts at Attenborough (where several streets were affected), but I'd not heard what you report about an EA cockup.

I remember it particularly because it was the night my daughter was born and we needed a police escort to get us out from Newark to the CIty Hospital. The police were rather forthright in their views on the EA (or whoever it was at that point) because they had not even informed the emergency services what they were doing.

Pulpstar

Neil said:

Pulpstar said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just for fun, the Pro-Eu parties are going to poll 51% at the Euros.

But those in favour of an in-out referendum poll (at least) 52%!

Greens are in favour of an in-out poll ?

If so, good on them !

http://greenparty.org.uk/news/yes-to-an-eu-referendum-green-mp-calls-for-chance-to-build-a-better-europe.html

There's a significant (but probably minority) eurosceptic wing to the party in England and Wales but (having been an MEP) I'm sure Caroline's support for the referendum was more because it was time to have one and that when push comes to shove she'd advocate an in vote.

I think it would be tight but we'd stay in. I guess political parties don't like effectively getting even money on a 5/6 shot or so though

justin124

Many people appear to have forgotten that the 2009 EuroElections coincided with when the Expenses scandal was at its most intense. UKIP - and to a lesser extent the Greens and BNP - benefitted as NOTA alternative, whilst Labour in particular suffered as the governing party at the time.Prior to the scandal UKIP had been widely expected to fall back from its 2004 performance - perhaps to below10%.Whatever happens in May,it is far from obvious that such an event will boost UKIP this year.

TheLastBoyScout

isam said:

@TheLastBoyScout

FPT

re Jan Smuts

Was just kidding, making the comparison for why UKIP voters don't campaign for Cameron to be PM

Ha! Okay. Bizarrely there was a thread on here comparing Smuts favourably to Mandela - not the greatest day on pbc...

CarlottaVance

TheLastBoyScout said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Two words, Lord and Rennard.

I'm not sure whether your tongue is in your cheek or not. But as one of the people saying the Rennard situation was bad for the Lib Dems I'm also pretty sure it hasnt cut their support that either. It will have an effect at the margins and on activism but not so that it is noticeable in polling.

I think pbc often overreacts to polling - "Lib Dems solid so Rennard not impacting them", "Labour down so 50p rate policy is hurting". These are just not conclusions that the data can support very easily. A recent exception is the impact of the 2012 Budget on the Tories, I think that was significant and sustained enough to be plausibly explained by the mess that Osborne made then. Otherwise people just generally arent even paying attention to the things that obsess us on a daily basis.

Quite right. We had minute by minute 'updates' on Falkirk on here. Actual impact - zero.

The impact of Falkirk (or Lord Rennard) is not on the immediate VI in the polls - both are about governance of the parties and the long term impact it has on their image, their internal processes and their effectiveness at campaigning. But please continue to dismiss them as "non-events". Ed doesn't think Falkirk was a "non-event" - he announced the biggest change in Labour in a generation...

FluffyThoughts

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yeah, BNP polled 6.3% last time, add in the assorted, Christians, English Democrats, Socialist Lab, No2EU etc who polled around 8% and it is plausible

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)

Good to see that the Scots-born fan of Keir Starmer and the Ignorance-of-English-Law (Tic-boxes) lawyer has just branded "English-Democrats" - past and present - as "BNP" likelies. If he crossed-bred with Unckie'-Malc and SoWo perchance....?

Sean_F

TheLastBoyScout said:

@SmithersJones

Cameron is Gen X not Gen Y.
The Baby Boomers are born 46-64, not 50-64.
Some are retired, some are working.
But it's a Blue cohort.
Gens X and Y are solidly Red.
This election will pit generation against generation.

But the red cohort is the one with the worst record of turnout.

isam

TheLastBoyScout said:

isam said:

@TheLastBoyScout

FPT

re Jan Smuts

Was just kidding, making the comparison for why UKIP voters don't campaign for Cameron to be PM

Ha! Okay. Bizarrely there was a thread on here comparing Smuts favourably to Mandela - not the greatest day on pbc...

Yes! That's what made me think of it tbh hadn't heard of him until then

TheLastBoyScout

CarlottaVance said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Two words, Lord and Rennard.

I'm not sure whether your tongue is in your cheek or not. But as one of the people saying the Rennard situation was bad for the Lib Dems I'm also pretty sure it hasnt cut their support that either. It will have an effect at the margins and on activism but not so that it is noticeable in polling.

I think pbc often overreacts to polling - "Lib Dems solid so Rennard not impacting them", "Labour down so 50p rate policy is hurting". These are just not conclusions that the data can support very easily. A recent exception is the impact of the 2012 Budget on the Tories, I think that was significant and sustained enough to be plausibly explained by the mess that Osborne made then. Otherwise people just generally arent even paying attention to the things that obsess us on a daily basis.

Quite right. We had minute by minute 'updates' on Falkirk on here. Actual impact - zero.

The impact of Falkirk (or Lord Rennard) is not on the immediate VI in the polls - both are about governance of the parties and the long term impact it has on their image, their internal processes and their effectiveness at campaigning. But please continue to dismiss them as "non-events". Ed doesn't think Falkirk was a "non-event" - he announced the biggest change in Labour in a generation...

Ah, one of those. QED. The acid test of a non-event in pbc terms is whether defenders of it being a 'scandal' argue that it is a massive story but one that has no effect on VI. It was exactly the same in the aftermath of the Ashcroft 'scandal'.

TheLastBoyScout

Sean_F said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

@SmithersJones

Cameron is Gen X not Gen Y.
The Baby Boomers are born 46-64, not 50-64.
Some are retired, some are working.
But it's a Blue cohort.
Gens X and Y are solidly Red.
This election will pit generation against generation.

But the red cohort is the one with the worst record of turnout.

Quite right - hence why it is an interesting race.

Sean_F

SMukesh said:

UKIP polled 16% in Euro 2009.It`s not even remotely believable that they`ll poll 20 this time.

I would be interested to see how ICM adjust the figures for the Euro poll.

ICM's first stab at Euro polling in 2009, put UKIP on 9% and Labour on 28%, compared to outcomes of 17% and 16%. 20% with ICM is a very good figure for UKIP, and certainly implies an outcome of 25-30%.

CarlottaVance

TheLastBoyScout said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Two words, Lord and Rennard.

I'm not sure whether your tongue is in your cheek or not. But as one of the people saying the Rennard situation was bad for the Lib Dems I'm also pretty sure it hasnt cut their support that either. It will have an effect at the margins and on activism but not so that it is noticeable in polling.

I think pbc often overreacts to polling - "Lib Dems solid so Rennard not impacting them", "Labour down so 50p rate policy is hurting". These are just not conclusions that the data can support very easily. A recent exception is the impact of the 2012 Budget on the Tories, I think that was significant and sustained enough to be plausibly explained by the mess that Osborne made then. Otherwise people just generally arent even paying attention to the things that obsess us on a daily basis.

Quite right. We had minute by minute 'updates' on Falkirk on here. Actual impact - zero.

The impact of Falkirk (or Lord Rennard) is not on the immediate VI in the polls - both are about governance of the parties and the long term impact it has on their image, their internal processes and their effectiveness at campaigning. But please continue to dismiss them as "non-events". Ed doesn't think Falkirk was a "non-event" - he announced the biggest change in Labour in a generation...

Ah, one of those. QED. The acid test of a non-event in pbc terms is whether defenders of it being a 'scandal' argue that it is a massive story but one that has no effect on VI. It was exactly the same in the aftermath of the Ashcroft 'scandal'.

Lord Rennard launches legal action against Lib Dems
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26124536

Nothing to see.....

The fact that the Lib Dems most effective campaigner will almost certainly never campaign for them again is of no consequence whatsoever....

The Ashcroft affair led to no change in how the Conservative party operates - he still provides them with advice. That can be said of neither Falkirk nor Rennard...

dr_spyn

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10629524/Ed-Miliband-praises-Margaret-Thatcher-in-drive-to-reform-unresponsive-public-services.html

Wonderful pic of the dear leader. not.

TheScreamingEagles

FluffyThoughts said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yeah, BNP polled 6.3% last time, add in the assorted, Christians, English Democrats, Socialist Lab, No2EU etc who polled around 8% and it is plausible

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)

Good to see that the Scots-born fan of Keir Starmer and the Ignorance-of-English-Law (Tic-boxes) lawyer has just branded "English-Democrats" - past and present - as "BNP" likelies. If he crossed-bred with Unckie'-Malc and SoWo perchance....?

I know English isn't your first language but at no point did I lump The English Democrats or the assorted others as BNP.

I separated them out. The comparison was the ones that polled 1-2% to give 8%.

Look at the context we were talking about others being down 14% since 2009.

MarkSenior

Sean_F said:

SMukesh said:

UKIP polled 16% in Euro 2009.It`s not even remotely believable that they`ll poll 20 this time.

I would be interested to see how ICM adjust the figures for the Euro poll.

ICM's first stab at Euro polling in 2009, put UKIP on 9% and Labour on 28%, compared to outcomes of 17% and 16%. 20% with ICM is a very good figure for UKIP, and certainly implies an outcome of 25-30%.

It certainly does not imply 25-30% for UKIP as an outcome . The absence of the reasons for the UKIP surge in 2009 ( mainly expenses scandal ) and the higher starting point 20% v 9% in 2009 make a similar increase much more unlikely in 2014 .

TheLastBoyScout

@CarlottaVance

This is a betting site so forgive me for not being that bothered about someone I had never heard of refusing to campaign for a party that is screwed anyway. As there is no evidence he has affected VI, I don't quite see how it can be the major story you think it is - big scandals shift VI, as a rule.

CarlottaVance

TheLastBoyScout said:

- big scandals shift VI, as a rule.

Examples? Very little directly shifts VI - the 2012 budget being a rare example. Shifts in VI happen slowly - driven by factors -including- party organisation and effectiveness,

It's also a Political betting site.......

TheLastBoyScout

Scandals have brought down governments @CarlottaVance

justin124

Sean_F said:

SMukesh said:

UKIP polled 16% in Euro 2009.It`s not even remotely believable that they`ll poll 20 this time.

I would be interested to see how ICM adjust the figures for the Euro poll.

ICM's first stab at Euro polling in 2009, put UKIP on 9% and Labour on 28%, compared to outcomes of 17% and 16%. 20% with ICM is a very good figure for UKIP, and certainly implies an outcome of 25-30%.

Yes- but that fails to take account of how the Expenses scandal upset earlier polls and calculations on a massive scale in 2009. Whilst nothing can be ruled out, it seems unlikely to happen again this year.

smithersjones2013

And you obviously are still a boy scout.

Cameron is Gen X not Gen Y.

Indeed Well spotted. It doesn't alter my point though.

The Baby Boomers are born 46-64, not 50-64.

Some are retired , some are working

So just using the years 28% are retiured and 72% are working. Read what I said. Most are still working!

But it's a Blue cohort

Is it really? Well looking at the latest project Blueprint poll from Lord Ashcroft for those over 55 the Tories only make up 37% of the vote. So the "blue cohort" is outnumbered by almost two to one by voters from other parties of the same age with Labour scoring 30% of that age group

Gens X and Y are solidly Red.

Well just over 50% in the Ashcroft poll are red so a very small majority but hardly 'solidly red'.

This election will pit generation against generation.

If you say so. Why are you so determined to force such a false and misrepresentative perception on people? You are not ageist are you?

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blueprint-4-Full-tables.pdf

anotherDave

Neil said:

Pulpstar said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just for fun, the Pro-Eu parties are going to poll 51% at the Euros.

But those in favour of an in-out referendum poll (at least) 52%!

Greens are in favour of an in-out poll ?

If so, good on them !

http://greenparty.org.uk/news/yes-to-an-eu-referendum-green-mp-calls-for-chance-to-build-a-better-europe.html

There's a significant (but probably minority) eurosceptic wing to the party in England and Wales but (having been an MEP) I'm sure Caroline's support for the referendum was more because it was time to have one and that when push comes to shove she'd advocate an in vote.

As I understand it the Greens want power devolved from the EU to the nation states. If that's not on offer in an in/out referendum surely they'd vote 'out'?

http://policy.greenparty.org.uk/eu

Sean_F

MarkSenior said:

Sean_F said:

SMukesh said:

UKIP polled 16% in Euro 2009.It`s not even remotely believable that they`ll poll 20 this time.

I would be interested to see how ICM adjust the figures for the Euro poll.

ICM's first stab at Euro polling in 2009, put UKIP on 9% and Labour on 28%, compared to outcomes of 17% and 16%. 20% with ICM is a very good figure for UKIP, and certainly implies an outcome of 25-30%.

It certainly does not imply 25-30% for UKIP as an outcome . The absence of the reasons for the UKIP surge in 2009 ( mainly expenses scandal ) and the higher starting point 20% v 9% in 2009 make a similar increase much more unlikely in 2014 .

Even ICM's eve of poll in 2009 had UKIP on 10%.

Sean_F

justin124 said:

Sean_F said:

SMukesh said:

UKIP polled 16% in Euro 2009.It`s not even remotely believable that they`ll poll 20 this time.

I would be interested to see how ICM adjust the figures for the Euro poll.

ICM's first stab at Euro polling in 2009, put UKIP on 9% and Labour on 28%, compared to outcomes of 17% and 16%. 20% with ICM is a very good figure for UKIP, and certainly implies an outcome of 25-30%.

Yes- but that fails to take account of how the Expenses scandal upset earlier polls and calculations on a massive scale in 2009. Whilst nothing can be ruled out, it seems unlikely to happen again this year.

In 2009, ICM were just out of line with other pollsters for the Euros. My guess is that their techniques don't work as well with low turnout elections under PR as they do with high turnout elections under FPTP.

anotherDave

justin124 said:

Sean_F said:

SMukesh said:

UKIP polled 16% in Euro 2009.It`s not even remotely believable that they`ll poll 20 this time.

I would be interested to see how ICM adjust the figures for the Euro poll.

ICM's first stab at Euro polling in 2009, put UKIP on 9% and Labour on 28%, compared to outcomes of 17% and 16%. 20% with ICM is a very good figure for UKIP, and certainly implies an outcome of 25-30%.

Yes- but that fails to take account of how the Expenses scandal upset earlier polls and calculations on a massive scale in 2009. Whilst nothing can be ruled out, it seems unlikely to happen again this year.

UKIP got 16% in 2004 too.

justin124

Sean_F
I was not restricting my comment to ICM -who were a bit out in 2009 though did not poll-I think- in the last week of the campaign.

justin124

anotherDave said:

justin124 said:

Sean_F said:

SMukesh said:

UKIP polled 16% in Euro 2009.It`s not even remotely believable that they`ll poll 20 this time.

I would be interested to see how ICM adjust the figures for the Euro poll.

ICM's first stab at Euro polling in 2009, put UKIP on 9% and Labour on 28%, compared to outcomes of 17% and 16%. 20% with ICM is a very good figure for UKIP, and certainly implies an outcome of 25-30%.

Yes- but that fails to take account of how the Expenses scandal upset earlier polls and calculations on a massive scale in 2009. Whilst nothing can be ruled out, it seems unlikely to happen again this year.

UKIP got 16% in 2004 too.

Indeed so - and until the Expenses scandal came along UKIP were widely expected to fall back from that.

anotherDave

justin124 said:

Many people appear to have forgotten that the 2009 EuroElections coincided with when the Expenses scandal was at its most intense. UKIP - and to a lesser extent the Greens and BNP - benefitted as NOTA alternative, whilst Labour in particular suffered as the governing party at the time.Prior to the scandal UKIP had been widely expected to fall back from its 2004 performance - perhaps to below10%.Whatever happens in May,it is far from obvious that such an event will boost UKIP this year.

The top two negatives Conservatives have with their current supporters are immigration and the EU.

36% of current-Conservatives think they have "failed to stand up to the EU"

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/27/how-tories-can-win-next-election/

Charles

justin124 said:

Sean_F said:

SMukesh said:

UKIP polled 16% in Euro 2009.It`s not even remotely believable that they`ll poll 20 this time.

I would be interested to see how ICM adjust the figures for the Euro poll.

ICM's first stab at Euro polling in 2009, put UKIP on 9% and Labour on 28%, compared to outcomes of 17% and 16%. 20% with ICM is a very good figure for UKIP, and certainly implies an outcome of 25-30%.

Yes- but that fails to take account of how the Expenses scandal upset earlier polls and calculations on a massive scale in 2009. Whilst nothing can be ruled out, it seems unlikely to happen again this year.

I don't know. There are people hyperventilating about a 7p bulldog clip...

AndyJS

Weather forecast, Walton-on-Thames:

Tuesday: heavy rain
Wednesday: heavy rain
Thursday: light rain
Friday: light rain

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2634825?day=1

Neil

anotherDave said:

Neil said:

Pulpstar said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just for fun, the Pro-Eu parties are going to poll 51% at the Euros.

But those in favour of an in-out referendum poll (at least) 52%!

Greens are in favour of an in-out poll ?

If so, good on them !

http://greenparty.org.uk/news/yes-to-an-eu-referendum-green-mp-calls-for-chance-to-build-a-better-europe.html

There's a significant (but probably minority) eurosceptic wing to the party in England and Wales but (having been an MEP) I'm sure Caroline's support for the referendum was more because it was time to have one and that when push comes to shove she'd advocate an in vote.

As I understand it the Greens want power devolved from the EU to the nation states. If that's not on offer in an in/out referendum surely they'd vote 'out'?

http://policy.greenparty.org.uk/eu

I dont think that logically follows. The question would then be whether the EU as offered is better or worse than not being in it at all. The EU as the Green party wants it is never going to happen so either option is a compromise and the question of which is the greater compromise isnt obvious (and will be different for different people). My generalisation is that people who have served time as MEPs tend to become institutionalised which is why I speculated that Caroline would be an "in" if push came to shove (based on the EU as it currently stands) but that's just my own speculation.