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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Each day the political potency of the flooding gets bigger

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Each day the political potency of the flooding gets bigger

Looking at the party splits CON voters are much more likely to blame the Environment Agency than David Cameron. The ones most supportive of the EA are the Lib Dems.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    edited February 2014
    Love that global warming grafiti picture
  • One for our engineers and train enthusiasts.

    Any value in this

    William Hill ‏@sharpeangle 7m

    South West Train Line at Dawlish to be re-opened by end of March 2014: 4/7 No, 5/4 Yes.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    UKIP's call for money to be diverted from the EU/foreign aid budget seems to have been popular.

    Given the number of LD MPs in Somerset, I'm surprised they haven't been in the news more.
  • Love that global warming grafiti picture

    That is very funny!

  • Off topic - government concerned about British Gas's excess profits. Say it may have to be broken up. That Miliband move just keeps on giving - a masterstroke. Of course, people on here will assure us that they aren't making excess profits, or no siree.
  • I'm not convinced this will be as significant as it might be. The number of people affected (40 households a week or two ago, accoridng to ITV, which was staggeringly low given the coverage), and the prolonged and heavy nature of the rain will probably lead many to conclude that whilst dredging's a good idea there was, frankly, little that could've been done to stop enormous tracts of land being flooded.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Love that global warming grafiti picture

    That is very funny!

    I suspect it's a marmite photo

    warmists think melting ice
    sceptics think where's the sunshine ?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TGOHF

    'Interesting read here - been going longer than the floods'

    So much for the not enough money / cuts crap.

    'England's EA is almost the size of the Canadian, Danish, French, German, Swedish and Austrian EAs COMBINED! Going by these statistics, it would appear that the Environment Agency is overstaffed by around 9,000 and has a budget that appears to be £0.5-1 billion too much.'
  • Famous last words, but I don't see this changing many votes at all. It has been conspicuously wet for a very long time. The public have noticed this and aren't surprised at the flooding.

    They also expect politicians, like thieves, to fall out when things go wrong. So no change there then.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    edited February 2014
    ABSOLUTELY NSFW

    Please tell me that it's just not us former public schoolboys that find this hysterically funny.

    Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics: Andreas [MODERATED] And [MODERATED] Pavlichenko Prompt Schoolboy Humour

    http://tinyurl.com/oc8zp2j
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    ABSOLUTELY NSFW

    Please tell me that it's just not us former public schoolboys that find this hysterically funny.

    Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics: Andreas [MODERATED] And [MODERATED] Pavlichenko Prompt Schoolboy Humour

    http://tinyurl.com/oc8zp2j

    Fnaar.

  • One for our engineers and train enthusiasts.

    Any value in this

    William Hill ‏@sharpeangle 7m

    South West Train Line at Dawlish to be re-opened by end of March 2014: 4/7 No, 5/4 Yes.

    There's another big windstorm for Wednesday/Thursday (currently with an amber warning from the Met Office), and there's another cyclone for the weekend. So one has doubts about when the weather will settle down enough for them to start.

    That said, 4/7 is a bit short given that they would have six weeks before the end of March from February 17th, so there's still plenty of time. I think the 5/4 on yes is value.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,531

    One for our engineers and train enthusiasts.

    Any value in this

    William Hill ‏@sharpeangle 7m

    South West Train Line at Dawlish to be re-opened by end of March 2014: 4/7 No, 5/4 Yes.

    FPT:
    My utter finger-waving-in-the-air utter guesswork: they'll have it open for services by the first week of March *if* there are no new storms. A lot will depend on the state of the tides.

    Mind you, I was wrong when I said the house at the breach would have to be demolished, at least so far. The engineers on the job have been doing superb work, despite challenges in other areas locally. The use of 20-foot shipping containers filled with rubble to act as a temporary wave break was genius.

    It looks as though the foundations and toe of the wall are still intact, so it's probably a case of building a new concrete wall on the foundations, infilling behind, reinstating track, signalling and drainage. There's also lots of other work that needs doing; parapet walls are down over long stretches, and Dawlish station needs some work. But these can be done in parallel.

    There'll be much work to be done after the services resume. For instance, if the new wall is to be concrete (and I can't see why it wouldn't), they'll probably need to put a granite wall facing on to please the locals. But that can probably be done after services resume. Expect engineering closures all year as work continues.

    But IANAE, so the above should be taken as uninformed conjecture.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    antifrank said:

    Famous last words, but I don't see this changing many votes at all. It has been conspicuously wet for a very long time. The public have noticed this and aren't surprised at the flooding.

    They also expect politicians, like thieves, to fall out when things go wrong. So no change there then.

    Nationally sure, but what about Somerset?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_Somerset
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2014

    Off topic - government concerned about British Gas's excess profits. Say it may have to be broken up. That Miliband move just keeps on giving - a masterstroke. Of course, people on here will assure us that they aren't making excess profits, or no siree.

    Hopefully it's Ed Davey being silly rather than the government as a whole, but, yes, the long-term picture for the UK economy in general and especially for utilities and other sectors where politicians might be tempted to meddle is indeed serious, despite the fact that we have almost the lowest gas and electricity prices in Western Europe. We seem to be in danger of having to re-learn all the old lessons, with Ed Miliband leading the wrecking.

    Fortunately I took the precaution of eliminating all my pension fund and ISA holdings in utilities a few weeks ago. I shall be moving assets out of UK-dependent shares in general later in the year, in view of the political risk, although I don't think the markets will wake up fully to the risk until towards the end of the year, except in the most obvious sectors such as utilities. I think the UK market therefore has a bit further to go, but I'm avoiding any area where Miliband looks likely to do damage. After all, I don't have the taxpayer to subsidise my pension.
  • And again - Government concerned about British Gas's excess profits. Is this a Squirrel news story?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,531
    Hugh said:

    I'm not convinced this will be as significant as it might be. The number of people affected (40 households a week or two ago, accoridng to ITV, which was staggeringly low given the coverage), and the prolonged and heavy nature of the rain will probably lead many to conclude that whilst dredging's a good idea there was, frankly, little that could've been done to stop enormous tracts of land being flooded.

    Well, quite. So why tf did the Govt start making it a political / blame game by going after the Environment Agency? *shakes head*
    Why did Eagles make it a political / blame game in early January when she accused Paterson of being 'blind' (oops!).

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/05/environment-secretary-blind-flood-risks-labour
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Am I right that Chris Smith is due to step down this summer anyway? If so there is little point in sacking him. It would just end up costing us even more money. Owen Paterson on the other hand....

    The only argument I can see against that is that it is awkward squad+1.
  • @anotherDave UKIP didn't break 5% in any of the Somerset seats at the last election and Labour only broke 10% in one (Bridgewater & West Somerset). In all five, the battle at the last election was between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. It's not obvious to me that this would swing voters between those two parties in particular.

    And in any case, not enough people have been affected even in that county for it to make a significant difference to people's voting intentions.
  • Messrs Jessop and Me, thank you.
  • On topic: this sort of story gets rapidly forgotten.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Rave reviews from the retail bosses about the government's handling of the economy: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/10627347/Retail-bosses-come-out-in-favour-of-Coalition.html

    Might suggest consumer spending is getting out of hand.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited February 2014
    antifrank said:

    @anotherDave UKIP didn't break 5% in any of the Somerset seats at the last election and Labour only broke 10% in one (Bridgewater & West Somerset). In all five, the battle at the last election was between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. It's not obvious to me that this would swing voters between those two parties in particular.

    And in any case, not enough people have been affected even in that county for it to make a significant difference to people's voting intentions.

    UKIP got 20% in the 2013 Somerset County Council elections.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somerset_County_Council_election,_2013

    Whether or not people live in the flooded area, it will be dominating the local news long after the national TV moves on.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    I agree with antifrank that the impact on the local constituencies will be limited but it's the mood music around the Tories of squabbling that is hurting. Bickering about Europe, then immigration, now we've got Pickles and Paterson at loggerheads on flood blame while everything's still underwater. There's the risk and I imagine that number 10 are trying to get everyone to calm down rather than fuel the fire.

    Having said that, the reaction when the government figured out they had a major problem in a set of marginal constituencies and suddenly went into panic mode would have been funny if it wasn't so serious for those affected. Would we have had the same panic had it been the Liverpool Levels?
  • @anotherDave If you fancy formulating a bet of some sort on this, I'm interested.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    I'm not convinced this will be as significant as it might be. The number of people affected (40 households a week or two ago, accoridng to ITV, which was staggeringly low given the coverage), and the prolonged and heavy nature of the rain will probably lead many to conclude that whilst dredging's a good idea there was, frankly, little that could've been done to stop enormous tracts of land being flooded.

    Certainly the particular issue of the Somerset Levels is chiefly relevant in a fairly under-populated area.

    However, the current spat has, very unwisely, put the issue of EA budget cuts on the agenda, and that will affect anyone whose day-to-day life is influenced by river levels. Look at Worcester, the home (of course) of that archetypal swing voter, Worcester Woman: a city cut in half by the flooding Severn. Cornwall and half of Devon have lost their railway line. And so on.

    It is difficult to see how Pickles thinks that the Government will come out well from his bluster. The more attention that he draws to the EA, the more people will look at the budget cuts that DEFRA has imposed on them. For example, one way the EA is planning to save money is by downgrading lock-keepers on the Thames,. They sound like a charming 19th century irrelevance but are effectively, the flood control system for large parts of Berkshire and Surrey... where quite a lot of noisy people live. And the top story on the BBC News site right now? "UK floods: Swollen Thames threatens thousands of homes."

    The EA is an unwieldy beast - the "Inside the Environment Agency" blog offers a partial but revealing take - and most people in flood defence (I've worked in a related field and am still in touch to some degree) agree that its formation was not the Major government's finest hour. The predecessor body, the National Rivers Authority, was working and working well. Major created the EA to be seen as "doing something" about the environment, in the light of the Greens' brief surge of popularity at the European elections that year. Lord Crickhowell's autobiography is very eloquent on the subject. But Pickles' crude swings are not a wise way of attacking it.
  • Competent administration of basic non-sexy stuff carries no political weight - until it goes wrong. The EA has been saving the whales in recent years and neglected to maintain flood defences. Now it's all wet this is a hot topic.

    We privatised some industries and so they have generally spent money and the grief around sewer failure, interrupted gas supplies etc never happened but has been supplanted by grief over utility bills.

    The next sexless / nimbyish area that will become politically explosive is when the lights go out. At current rates of incompetence that looks likely to happen on Redward's watch. There will be the mother of all people vs planet arguments and 'brewery - piss-up / can't even keep the lights on' criticism in the press. However, in Ed's case alot of it might be deserved given the lack of common sense leadership on energy under his ministership.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    (Just as a footnote: I don't give much for the chances of the Conservatives holding Worcester in 2015.)
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited February 2014
    BBC News

    Lord Rennard serves legal papers on the Lib Dems to lift his suspension. Will result in him seeking costs from Tim Farron.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    ABSOLUTELY NSFW

    Please tell me that it's just not us former public schoolboys that find this hysterically funny.

    Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics: Andreas [MODERATED] And [MODERATED] Pavlichenko Prompt Schoolboy Humour

    http://tinyurl.com/oc8zp2j

    I'd defy anybody in this day and age to read Swallows and Amazons with a straight face, when you have characters like Able Seaman Titty, Roger the Ship's Boy, and an old sailor called Salty Seaman.

  • Mr. Capitano, I agree that Pickles was unwise. Smith was already the lightning rod of dissatisfaction, Pickles banging on about it (as well as politicising the matter, when it should not be [I'm aware Labour are already doing this]) has made the blame game more overtly political.

    Incidentally, I haven't quite finished watching it, but the link from the previous thread on demographics is fascinating:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03h8r1j/This_World_Dont_Panic_The_Truth_About_Population/

    I used to very much enjoy the Demographics page on Civilisation II. I think it was possible to get the average family size up to several thousand children.

    Incidentally, those into such things and with time to kill might enjoy Cybernations or Nation-states.net.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282
    Hugh said:

    I'm not convinced this will be as significant as it might be. The number of people affected (40 households a week or two ago, accoridng to ITV, which was staggeringly low given the coverage), and the prolonged and heavy nature of the rain will probably lead many to conclude that whilst dredging's a good idea there was, frankly, little that could've been done to stop enormous tracts of land being flooded.

    Well, quite. So why tf did the Govt start making it a political / blame game by going after the Environment Agency? *shakes head*
    That's the key political point I think - most of the time people are pretty accepting of flooding as something that's difficult to control, even as for understandable reasons they're desperate for help and so very ready to voice their anger until something is done.

    The political danger is in panicking and letting a sense of chaos and arse-covering descend, with ministers and the EA flinging mud (or silt perhaps?) at each other neither comes out looking good. This makes Pickles intervention all the more daft - understandably if they're set-up to be accused of being incompetent idiots the EA will fight back and we can expect to hear a lot more about how the treasury restricted what they could do which will create many more problems than if the govt. had just released more money and admitted that while things weren't perfect everything possible was being done.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    BBC News

    Lord Rennard serves legal papers on the Lib Dems to lift his suspension. Will result in him seeking costs from Tim Farron.

    Surely if a private club does not want you, how can you sue them if they return your membership fee?

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    I would reckon Chris Smith should be taken down to Somerset and then kicked out of the car where a group of locals are standing. Wonder how many would share his view that his senior staff are competent at planning for flood prevention? Personally I would put him in a set of stocks and let the good citizens of Somerset get laid into him with rotten tomatoes and eggs. Won't improve the situation but would make many of the people flooded out feel a great deal better.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    Financier said:

    BBC News

    Lord Rennard serves legal papers on the Lib Dems to lift his suspension. Will result in him seeking costs from Tim Farron.

    Surely if a private club does not want you, how can you sue them if they return your membership fee?

    Breach of contract, I should think. The Club rules represent a contract between the Club and each member.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited February 2014
    The Election Data twitter bod has lots of interesting maps.

    https://twitter.com/election_data

    "Map showing low-income family households in traditional industrial areas who sympathise with 'other' parties"

    twitter.com/election_data/status/432224679273574400

    twitter.com/election_data/status/432229892541788161

    twitter.com/election_data/status/432469720353099776
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    On topic: this sort of story gets rapidly forgotten.

    They'll be doing a raindance at UKIP towers tonight.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    edited February 2014
    People won't listen to long detailed excuses of why Government has not acted. All they will see is the water and the heartbreak and all they will hear is the government failed and it has failed because of the long term mismanagement of the environment by the body set up by government to do it.

    Once again Westminster's deranged psychosis is displayed for all to see and UKIP can add another string to their bow.
  • Mr. 2013, I'm not so sure. Yorkshire hasn't really had any floods this time round, but it's rained either every day or every other day for bloody ages. That much rain leads to floods, and complaints about the government of the day will sound more like typical moaning than legitimate criticism.

    The Pickles-Smith tit-for-tat is a bit unedifying.
  • I would reckon Chris Smith should be taken down to Somerset and then kicked out of the car where a group of locals are standing. Wonder how many would share his view that his senior staff are competent at planning for flood prevention? Personally I would put him in a set of stocks and let the good citizens of Somerset get laid into him with rotten tomatoes and eggs. Won't improve the situation but would make many of the people flooded out feel a great deal better.

    They should stick him in a ducking stool and see if he floats?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Financier said:

    BBC News

    Lord Rennard serves legal papers on the Lib Dems to lift his suspension. Will result in him seeking costs from Tim Farron.

    Surely if a private club does not want you, how can you sue them if they return your membership fee?

    You aren't (primarily) looking for damages, you are after a judicial review of, and the overturning of, the decision to expel you on the grounds that the rules of natural justice were not observed when the decision was made.

  • I'd be surprised if it shifted many votes, but given where it's happening it has to be a worry for the Tories. Cameron seems to be saying and doing all the right things, but is being let down by some of his ministers. Hopefully, once it has all died down the proper lessons will be learned.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    I'm not convinced this will be as significant as it might be. The number of people affected (40 households a week or two ago, accoridng to ITV, which was staggeringly low given the coverage), and the prolonged and heavy nature of the rain will probably lead many to conclude that whilst dredging's a good idea there was, frankly, little that could've been done to stop enormous tracts of land being flooded.

    Certainly the particular issue of the Somerset Levels is chiefly relevant in a fairly under-populated area.

    However, the current spat has, very unwisely, put the issue of EA budget cuts on the agenda, and that will affect anyone whose day-to-day life is influenced by river levels. Look at Worcester, the home (of course) of that archetypal swing voter, Worcester Woman: a city cut in half by the flooding Severn. Cornwall and half of Devon have lost their railway line. And so on.

    snip

    The EA is an unwieldy beast - the "Inside the Environment Agency" blog offers a partial but revealing take - and most people in flood defence (I've worked in a related field and am still in touch to some degree) agree that its formation was not the Major government's finest hour. The predecessor body, the National Rivers Authority, was working and working well. Major created the EA to be seen as "doing something" about the environment, in the light of the Greens' brief surge of popularity at the European elections that year. Lord Crickhowell's autobiography is very eloquent on the subject. But Pickles' crude swings are not a wise way of attacking it.
    Budget cuts are not really relevant. Traditionally the farmers dredged the rhynes and rivers themselves.

    The EA are responsible when they take over from the farmers and impose their own policies (notwithstanding rubbish coming from the EU) without taking due note of what has been successful previously.

    If you read the two publications of the EA in 2008 and 2012 on the Somerset Levels thoroughly, they include a lot of waffle and reveal a total inability to understand the situation and show bias in favour of the EA's untested theories.

    In my own area which is now not in Somerset, the EA forbade the farmers removing fallen trees etc from the river, which then overflowed onto a trunk road and nearly causing accidents. Thankfully the farmers then ignored the EA, removed debris from the river, dredged it and during the recent heavy rain the river has not overflowed onto the trunk road. Of course the EA threatened legal reprisals and fines but such threats came to nothing when a highly public court battle was promised.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Only thing that will get this out of the news is for the rain to stop.

    Not sure even a yellow box can make that happen.

    Another kick in the nuts for the Met office's credibility though - so called dry winter.
  • Why did the EA take over dredging?

    Why not just let farmers do it?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    It's raining.

    Again.

    People are going to look out of the window and notice. Sometimes it rains harder and sometimes it's a light drizzle. Sometimes, occasionally, it's a humdinger and areas, especially low-lying ones, get hammered.

    I don't think anyone looks outside the window and thinks: "bloody Tories".

    OK some do and if what I am hearing about Pickles's blame game is true he is an oaf and misguided.

    But most people think - oh it's raining, that bloke who built a dam around his house is quite clever, thank goodness it's not me (apart from the relatively few households who it is) and move on.

    If Lab try to blame the Coalition people will see it as desperate politicking, no matter the ins and outs of who did or didn't dredge what.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS 2m
    Lib Dem sources say they have recieved "a legal letter" from @lordrennard but dispute this amounts to "legal papers"

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS 6m
    Sources say @lordrennard will seek costs against Tim Farron if case goes to court
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited February 2014

    People won't listen to long detailed excuses of why Government has not acted. All they will see is the water and the heartbreak and all they will hear is the government failed and it has failed because of the long term mismanagement of the environment by the body set up by government to do it.

    Once again Westminster's deranged psychosis is displayed for all to see and UKIP can add another string to their bow.

    That's why Labour spinner @MarkfergusonUK has done nothing but post puerile photoshops of Farage in Somerset, accompanied by the standard student jokes... they just don't get it

    At least he knows his audience!
  • Mr. Flashman (deceased), the Met Office is dire at seasonal forecasts.

    That said, it's worth mentioning weather forecasts over 3-5 days or so are pretty good. I might be imagining it, but they seem much more accurate than they were a few years ago.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    People won't listen to long detailed excuses of why Government has not acted. All they will see is the water and the heartbreak and all they will hear is the government failed and it has failed because of the long term mismanagement of the environment by the body set up by government to do it.

    Once again Westminster's deranged psychosis is displayed for all to see and UKIP can add another string to their bow.

    You mean ukip being opportunistic again.

  • New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 34 (+1); LD 11 (+2); UKIP 12 (-3); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://popu.lu/s_vi140210

    Clearly the public are blaming UKIP for letting the gay marriages cause these floods.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), the Met Office is dire at seasonal forecasts.

    That said, it's worth mentioning weather forecasts over 3-5 days or so are pretty good. I might be imagining it, but they seem much more accurate than they were a few years ago.

    I agree - they should stop doing long range forecasting - and getting involved in climate change mumbo jumbo.
  • I'd reckon that to most of Joe Public, the EA pretty much equates to the Government anyway. That they've all fallen out and are trying to stick the knife in each other just makes them seem even more inept than we normally expect our governmental agencies to be.
  • F1: silly video from Mercedes. Rosberg speaks for everyone with his final line:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P-9oYUwA_E
  • antifrank said:

    New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 34 (+1); LD 11 (+2); UKIP 12 (-3); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://popu.lu/s_vi140210

    Clearly the public are blaming UKIP for letting the gay marriages cause these floods.

    Voters enjoying the floods, probably happy to have something to moan about.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 34 (+1); LD 11 (+2); UKIP 12 (-3); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://popu.lu/s_vi140210

    Still no crossover...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Labour targeting UKIP as Nigel Farage's party aims to become main threat to Ed Miliband in North

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-targeting-ukip-nigel-farages-3130069

    The real nasty party ?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    Love that global warming grafiti picture

    That is very funny!

    It's a classic attempt to say weather = climate, this time rather stupidly from a warmist perspective.
  • Talking of clubs and bans, my nephew has been banned for one thousand (yes, 1,000) years from any club and bar in the UK with scanning gear. Last March he went to the aid of a friend who was being beaten up and it turned out that the aggressor was a friend of the manager of the club where the attack happened. The manager was able to register a ban iof a length he alone determined that is now applicable nationally. My nephew is 20 years old, is working as an apprentice painter, has no money and now no weekends. He has tried talking to the manager to no avail. What, realistically, can my nephew do? He can't afford a lawyer and I can't see the police taking it very seriously - even if it falls within their remit. There is a distinct lack of natural justice involved in this.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    edited February 2014

    Mr. 2013, I'm not so sure. Yorkshire hasn't really had any floods this time round, but it's rained either every day or every other day for bloody ages. That much rain leads to floods, and complaints about the government of the day will sound more like typical moaning than legitimate criticism.

    The Pickles-Smith tit-for-tat is a bit unedifying.

    Normally I would agree but this has been dragging on for a long time and is still getting worse and becoming more widespread (flooding in Surrey and Berkshire) and what is becoming apparent is that the Government's response to flooding is inadequate and the problems have been exacerbated by long term government policy.

    Not only that but if one believes the political and technical orthodoxy surrounding this issue, such events are likely to become more frequent and more widespread. People won't forget something if they are worried it might happen to them and they don't think the government is going to help them.

    It won't be a game changer ion its own in 2015 but it won't do any of the Westminster party's any good and in particular both government parties. Put it alongside other issues (like International Aid) and its going to have an effect.

    As for Pickles his performance (defending foreign aid as he did) has been as inept as Smith's. He's sacrificed his credibility for nothing. They deserve each other!

    PS The Government had the opportunity to ditch Smith three years ago and chose not to. More fool them!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Talking of clubs and bans, my nephew has been banned for one thousand (yes, 1,000) years from any club and bar in the UK with scanning gear. Last March he went to the aid of a friend who was being beaten up and it turned out that the aggressor was a friend of the manager of the club where the attack happened. The manager was able to register a ban iof a length he alone determined that is now applicable nationally. My nephew is 20 years old, is working as an apprentice painter, has no money and now no weekends. He has tried talking to the manager to no avail. What, realistically, can my nephew do? He can't afford a lawyer and I can't see the police taking it very seriously - even if it falls within their remit. There is a distinct lack of natural justice involved in this.

    Scanning gear ? Whassat ?
  • TGOHF said:

    Only thing that will get this out of the news is for the rain to stop.

    Not sure even a yellow box can make that happen.

    Another kick in the nuts for the Met office's credibility though - so called dry winter.

    Have you got a link to that?

    I can only find the seasonal forecast for February - April.

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), the Met Office is dire at seasonal forecasts.

    That said, it's worth mentioning weather forecasts over 3-5 days or so are pretty good. I might be imagining it, but they seem much more accurate than they were a few years ago.

    I agree - they should stop doing long range forecasting - and getting involved in climate change mumbo jumbo.
    Like all Met Office forecasts, the dry winter forecast was issued with a probability of it actually occurring. Sadly depressing few in the media understand probability, and in particular Bayes' Theorem.
  • maaarsh said:

    Love that global warming grafiti picture

    That is very funny!

    It's a classic attempt to say weather = climate, this time rather stupidly from a warmist perspective.

    Really? I thought that it was Paul Waugh sending out a rather witty tweet about a known climate change sceptic in relation to current events.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), the Met Office is dire at seasonal forecasts.

    That said, it's worth mentioning weather forecasts over 3-5 days or so are pretty good. I might be imagining it, but they seem much more accurate than they were a few years ago.

    I agree - they should stop doing long range forecasting - and getting involved in climate change mumbo jumbo.
    Like all Met Office forecasts, the dry winter forecast was issued with a probability of it actually occurring. Sadly depressing few in the media understand probability, and in particular Bayes' Theorem.
    I bet it was on a press release though - why bother if "low probability" aka a "guess".

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    UKIP's call for money to be diverted from the EU/foreign aid budget seems to have been popular.

    Given the number of LD MPs in Somerset, I'm surprised they haven't been in the news more.

    Diversion of funds now would make no immediate improvement. There will be sufficient funds to do what is necessary in the future. What's needed now is a sensible plan of (continuous) work. Another knee-jerk stunt from ukip, counting on the lack of popularity of eu/aid funding.

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    maaarsh said:

    Love that global warming grafiti picture

    That is very funny!

    It's a classic attempt to say weather = climate, this time rather stupidly from a warmist perspective.

    Really? I thought that it was Paul Waugh sending out a rather witty tweet about a known climate change sceptic in relation to current events.

    /Banksy being boring and intellectually incoherent.
  • maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    Love that global warming grafiti picture

    That is very funny!

    It's a classic attempt to say weather = climate, this time rather stupidly from a warmist perspective.

    Really? I thought that it was Paul Waugh sending out a rather witty tweet about a known climate change sceptic in relation to current events.

    /Banksy being boring and intellectually incoherent.
    Life must be a scream in your house.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    antifrank said:

    New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 34 (+1); LD 11 (+2); UKIP 12 (-3); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://popu.lu/s_vi140210

    Clearly the public are blaming UKIP for letting the gay marriages cause these floods.

    Voters enjoying the floods, probably happy to have something to moan about.
    Terrible for the Government on the pickles vs smith war of words,really showing them in a bad light by the media ,expect polls in coming days to show labour rise.

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    Off topic - government concerned about British Gas's excess profits. Say it may have to be broken up. That Miliband move just keeps on giving - a masterstroke. Of course, people on here will assure us that they aren't making excess profits, or no siree.

    Miliband's accusations about the companies ripping off the customers is a joke when compared to how his government ripped off the taxpayer.

  • TGOHF said:

    Talking of clubs and bans, my nephew has been banned for one thousand (yes, 1,000) years from any club and bar in the UK with scanning gear. Last March he went to the aid of a friend who was being beaten up and it turned out that the aggressor was a friend of the manager of the club where the attack happened. The manager was able to register a ban iof a length he alone determined that is now applicable nationally. My nephew is 20 years old, is working as an apprentice painter, has no money and now no weekends. He has tried talking to the manager to no avail. What, realistically, can my nephew do? He can't afford a lawyer and I can't see the police taking it very seriously - even if it falls within their remit. There is a distinct lack of natural justice involved in this.

    Scanning gear ? Whassat ?

    They scan your ID to check you are over 18 and to make sure it is not fake or borrowed.

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), the Met Office is dire at seasonal forecasts.

    That said, it's worth mentioning weather forecasts over 3-5 days or so are pretty good. I might be imagining it, but they seem much more accurate than they were a few years ago.

    I agree - they should stop doing long range forecasting - and getting involved in climate change mumbo jumbo.
    Like all Met Office forecasts, the dry winter forecast was issued with a probability of it actually occurring. Sadly depressing few in the media understand probability, and in particular Bayes' Theorem.
    I bet it was on a press release though - why bother if "low probability" aka a "guess".

    No, low probability does not equal a guess. Weather forecasting works by running thousands of simulations of the weather with very slightly different initial conditions. If in x% of them a dry winter occurs, then x is the probability of a dry winter.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    TGOHF said:

    antifrank said:

    New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 34 (+1); LD 11 (+2); UKIP 12 (-3); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://popu.lu/s_vi140210

    Still no crossover...
    Yeah but it only takes us to lose 1% and the LDs to gain 1% and it will occur.

    Then we'd have to think about letting Clegg into the debates!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Only thing that will get this out of the news is for the rain to stop.

    Not sure even a yellow box can make that happen.

    Another kick in the nuts for the Met office's credibility though - so called dry winter.

    Have you got a link to that?

    I can only find the seasonal forecast for February - April.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/8/A3_plots-precip-DJF-2.pdf
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Talking of clubs and bans, my nephew has been banned for one thousand (yes, 1,000) years from any club and bar in the UK with scanning gear. Last March he went to the aid of a friend who was being beaten up and it turned out that the aggressor was a friend of the manager of the club where the attack happened. The manager was able to register a ban iof a length he alone determined that is now applicable nationally. My nephew is 20 years old, is working as an apprentice painter, has no money and now no weekends. He has tried talking to the manager to no avail. What, realistically, can my nephew do? He can't afford a lawyer and I can't see the police taking it very seriously - even if it falls within their remit. There is a distinct lack of natural justice involved in this.

    Scanning gear ? Whassat ?

    They scan your ID to check you are over 18 and to make sure it is not fake or borrowed.

    Is that common ? Does it work on passports ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    antifrank said:

    New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 34 (+1); LD 11 (+2); UKIP 12 (-3); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://popu.lu/s_vi140210

    Still no crossover...
    Yeah but it only takes us to lose 1% and the LDs to gain 1% and it will occur.

    Then we'd have to think about letting Clegg into the debates!
    I see what you did there ;-)

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    TGOHF said:

    Talking of clubs and bans, my nephew has been banned for one thousand (yes, 1,000) years from any club and bar in the UK with scanning gear. Last March he went to the aid of a friend who was being beaten up and it turned out that the aggressor was a friend of the manager of the club where the attack happened. The manager was able to register a ban iof a length he alone determined that is now applicable nationally. My nephew is 20 years old, is working as an apprentice painter, has no money and now no weekends. He has tried talking to the manager to no avail. What, realistically, can my nephew do? He can't afford a lawyer and I can't see the police taking it very seriously - even if it falls within their remit. There is a distinct lack of natural justice involved in this.

    Scanning gear ? Whassat ?

    They scan your ID to check you are over 18 and to make sure it is not fake or borrowed.

    I've never seen anything like that before? Is this a thing in London?

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If these floods lead to a proper examination of the Quango culture, and what goes on in these vastly expensive organisations, then all the better.

    I really don;t think labour will get far claiming the EA is underfunded.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TGOHF said:

    Talking of clubs and bans, my nephew has been banned for one thousand (yes, 1,000) years from any club and bar in the UK with scanning gear. Last March he went to the aid of a friend who was being beaten up and it turned out that the aggressor was a friend of the manager of the club where the attack happened. The manager was able to register a ban iof a length he alone determined that is now applicable nationally. My nephew is 20 years old, is working as an apprentice painter, has no money and now no weekends. He has tried talking to the manager to no avail. What, realistically, can my nephew do? He can't afford a lawyer and I can't see the police taking it very seriously - even if it falls within their remit. There is a distinct lack of natural justice involved in this.

    Scanning gear ? Whassat ?

    They scan your ID to check you are over 18 and to make sure it is not fake or borrowed.

    I am probably as outraged/nonplussed as others of my, ahem, generation.

    Is scanning widespread? The problem will of course dissipate as soon as he looks older and/or decides to frequent venues which don't "scan".

    That said, I can't see why someone of one establishment is able to dictate to another establishment who they can or cannot allow to enter.

    But that's probably because I am an old git and don't "get it" anymore.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    perdix said:

    UKIP's call for money to be diverted from the EU/foreign aid budget seems to have been popular.

    Given the number of LD MPs in Somerset, I'm surprised they haven't been in the news more.

    Diversion of funds now would make no immediate improvement. There will be sufficient funds to do what is necessary in the future. What's needed now is a sensible plan of (continuous) work. Another knee-jerk stunt from ukip, counting on the lack of popularity of eu/aid funding.

    It would compensate people/businesses for their immediate needs.

    The point is not so much whether it's a necessary thing, but whether it's a popular thing.

    (Sky video interview on link below)

    http://www.ukip.org/newsroom/news/1146-let-s-put-our-flood-victims-ahead-of-foreign-aid-to-countries-that-don-t-need-it
  • RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Talking of clubs and bans, my nephew has been banned for one thousand (yes, 1,000) years from any club and bar in the UK with scanning gear. Last March he went to the aid of a friend who was being beaten up and it turned out that the aggressor was a friend of the manager of the club where the attack happened. The manager was able to register a ban iof a length he alone determined that is now applicable nationally. My nephew is 20 years old, is working as an apprentice painter, has no money and now no weekends. He has tried talking to the manager to no avail. What, realistically, can my nephew do? He can't afford a lawyer and I can't see the police taking it very seriously - even if it falls within their remit. There is a distinct lack of natural justice involved in this.

    Scanning gear ? Whassat ?

    They scan your ID to check you are over 18 and to make sure it is not fake or borrowed.

    I've never seen anything like that before? Is this a thing in London?

    I've never heard of it either, but then I haven't been clubbing for many a long year. He lives in Finchley and apparently the closest place he can go to that does not have one of these things is somewhere in SE London. Maybe it's this:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clubscan


  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Apparently Old Windsor has some flooding...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10627883/Flooding-crisis-weather-live.html

    Let's hope HM has some wellies!
  • Hugh said:

    SUMMARY - PRECIPITATION:
    Confidence in the forecast for precipitation across the UK over the next three months is relatively low. For the
    December-January-February period as a whole there is a slight signal for below-average precipitation.
    The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25%
    and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories
    is 20%)

    Or, in plain English, they didn't have the faintest clue how much rain there might be.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Hugh said:

    SUMMARY - PRECIPITATION:
    Confidence in the forecast for precipitation across the UK over the next three months is relatively low. For the
    December-January-February period as a whole there is a slight signal for below-average precipitation.
    The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25%
    and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories
    is 20%)

    Or, in plain English, they didn't have the faintest clue how much rain there might be.
    Now now - they got the rest er...

    "With colder-than-normal conditions being favoured, as indicated in
    the temperature section, the probabilities for precipitation falling as
    snow and for occurrence of ice this winter will be higher than the
    climatological values."

    Suggests that this sort of forecast is "brave" and of "limited value" - so why bother ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941


    I've never heard of it either, but then I haven't been clubbing for many a long year. He lives in Finchley and apparently the closest place he can go to that does not have one of these things is somewhere in SE London. Maybe it's this:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clubscan


    There must be some laws to prevent abuses of systems like these. Any lawyers on here?
  • RobD said:

    Apparently Old Windsor has some flooding...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10627883/Flooding-crisis-weather-live.html

    Let's hope HM has some wellies!

    She'll be fine. She's on a hill.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    RobD said:

    Apparently Old Windsor has some flooding...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10627883/Flooding-crisis-weather-live.html

    Let's hope HM has some wellies!

    If the queen would just revive the old tradition of publicly executing unpopular officials they'd be much more pro-active. :-)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    RobD said:

    Apparently Old Windsor has some flooding...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10627883/Flooding-crisis-weather-live.html

    Let's hope HM has some wellies!

    She'll be fine. She's on a hill.

    so floods _and_ invading hordes she should be fine with.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    edited February 2014
    perdix said:

    UKIP's call for money to be diverted from the EU/foreign aid budget seems to have been popular.

    Given the number of LD MPs in Somerset, I'm surprised they haven't been in the news more.

    Diversion of funds now would make no immediate improvement. There will be sufficient funds to do what is necessary in the future. What's needed now is a sensible plan of (continuous) work. Another knee-jerk stunt from ukip, counting on the lack of popularity of eu/aid funding.

    You seem to forget that the Chancellor is borrowing £120 billion a year. The government do not have 'sufficient funds' to deal with all they currently have to deal with let alone additional emergency spending. Either they borrow more or they rob Peter to pay Paul. UKIP are only suggesting that for once it is not the British electorate who are the ones robbed!
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Only thing that will get this out of the news is for the rain to stop.

    Not sure even a yellow box can make that happen.

    Another kick in the nuts for the Met office's credibility though - so called dry winter.

    Have you got a link to that?

    I can only find the seasonal forecast for February - April.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/8/A3_plots-precip-DJF-2.pdf
    Thanks. Not a very confident forecast.

    I think when the Met Office started there were less aware of how good (or not) their forecasts were. Cynics like you would have had them shut down back then before they could make any progress.

    I notice that one of the times that they ran the model it produced a lot of rain. I imagine they will be looking at how that forecast was different to all the others and learning from it.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Open primary in Thirsk and Malton?

    "Tory grandee Sir Peter Tapsell rose at a meeting of Tory MPs ... said he would give £10,000 from his own pocket to pay for an open primary"

    http://order-order.com/2014/02/10/tapsell-offers-10000-to-pay-for-thirsk-open-primary/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Only thing that will get this out of the news is for the rain to stop.

    Not sure even a yellow box can make that happen.

    Another kick in the nuts for the Met office's credibility though - so called dry winter.

    Have you got a link to that?

    I can only find the seasonal forecast for February - April.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/8/A3_plots-precip-DJF-2.pdf
    Thanks. Not a very confident forecast.

    I think when the Met Office started there were less aware of how good (or not) their forecasts were. Cynics like you would have had them shut down back then before they could make any progress.

    I notice that one of the times that they ran the model it produced a lot of rain. I imagine they will be looking at how that forecast was different to all the others and learning from it.
    Why not have in big letters "LOW CONFIDENCE" ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,531

    Why did the EA take over dredging?

    Why not just let farmers do it?

    It needs doing properly, and it is not necessarily as simple as just digging out the channel. And if it is an artificial channel, you might accidentally pull the plug. ;-) (*) In addition, banks have to be engineered to the correct profile - you can't just randomly dump the spoil and expect it to work.

    Farmers can also cause damage themselves; a flood on the Dove in the 1980s was caused by a farmer digging a ramp through a flood bankcattle lowering the flood bank in one place.

    Having said all that, for small streams and rivers, there's no reason why a farmer could not do it with advice from the relevant authorities. After all, many are used to doing exactly this sort of thing.

    Nowadays though, they'd probably need a strict environmental survey to check there's no lesser-greater-spotted-striped-newt-tit nestling in the area.

    (*): http://www.worksopguardian.co.uk/news/local/memories-of-pulling-the-plug-on-canal-1-624620
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Talking of clubs and bans, my nephew has been banned for one thousand (yes, 1,000) years from any club and bar in the UK with scanning gear. Last March he went to the aid of a friend who was being beaten up and it turned out that the aggressor was a friend of the manager of the club where the attack happened. The manager was able to register a ban iof a length he alone determined that is now applicable nationally. My nephew is 20 years old, is working as an apprentice painter, has no money and now no weekends. He has tried talking to the manager to no avail. What, realistically, can my nephew do? He can't afford a lawyer and I can't see the police taking it very seriously - even if it falls within their remit. There is a distinct lack of natural justice involved in this.

    Scanning gear ? Whassat ?

    They scan your ID to check you are over 18 and to make sure it is not fake or borrowed.

    I am probably as outraged/nonplussed as others of my, ahem, generation.

    Is scanning widespread? The problem will of course dissipate as soon as he looks older and/or decides to frequent venues which don't "scan".

    That said, I can't see why someone of one establishment is able to dictate to another establishment who they can or cannot allow to enter.

    But that's probably because I am an old git and don't "get it" anymore.
    They can't dictate, afaik it's technically an advisory thing. Given clubs generally reserve the right to refuse entry for any reason I doubt there's any legal avenue to overturn it.

    Realistically, try the next nearest club and talk to their management would be an idea.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Open primary in Thirsk and Malton?

    "Tory grandee Sir Peter Tapsell rose at a meeting of Tory MPs ... said he would give £10,000 from his own pocket to pay for an open primary"

    http://order-order.com/2014/02/10/tapsell-offers-10000-to-pay-for-thirsk-open-primary/

    Didn't the one in Cornwall cost 40,000 ish?
  • F1: good news for Renault as Lotus complete a 62 mile test without the power unit exploding:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26122651
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    I read earlier on this thread that the EAs budget is almost the size of the equivalent department in the US. This must surely be because the EA has a bigger remit, surely?!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Following the example of the Labour government of the 1970s in securing a deluge of rain by appointing a Minister for the drought, clearly the Coalition should expeditiously appoint Ian Liddell Git-rainger as Minister for the Ark !!
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Only thing that will get this out of the news is for the rain to stop.

    Not sure even a yellow box can make that happen.

    Another kick in the nuts for the Met office's credibility though - so called dry winter.

    Have you got a link to that?

    I can only find the seasonal forecast for February - April.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/8/A3_plots-precip-DJF-2.pdf
    Thanks. Not a very confident forecast.

    I think when the Met Office started there were less aware of how good (or not) their forecasts were. Cynics like you would have had them shut down back then before they could make any progress.

    I notice that one of the times that they ran the model it produced a lot of rain. I imagine they will be looking at how that forecast was different to all the others and learning from it.
    Why not have in big letters "LOW CONFIDENCE" ?
    The first sentence of their summary is:
    Confidence in the forecast for precipitation across the UK over the next three months is relatively low.
    You are being silly.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    F1: good news for Renault as Lotus complete a 62 mile test without the power unit exploding:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26122651

    Mr Dancer. I'm not a close follower of formula 1 technology, but not exploding seems a pretty low bar for 'good news'.
This discussion has been closed.