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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Each day the political potency of the flooding gets bigger
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Each day the political potency of the flooding gets bigger
Looking at the party splits CON voters are much more likely to blame the Environment Agency than David Cameron. The ones most supportive of the EA are the Lib Dems.
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Any value in this
William Hill @sharpeangle 7m
South West Train Line at Dawlish to be re-opened by end of March 2014: 4/7 No, 5/4 Yes.
Given the number of LD MPs in Somerset, I'm surprised they haven't been in the news more.
warmists think melting ice
sceptics think where's the sunshine ?
'Interesting read here - been going longer than the floods'
So much for the not enough money / cuts crap.
'England's EA is almost the size of the Canadian, Danish, French, German, Swedish and Austrian EAs COMBINED! Going by these statistics, it would appear that the Environment Agency is overstaffed by around 9,000 and has a budget that appears to be £0.5-1 billion too much.'
They also expect politicians, like thieves, to fall out when things go wrong. So no change there then.
Please tell me that it's just not us former public schoolboys that find this hysterically funny.
Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics: Andreas [MODERATED] And [MODERATED] Pavlichenko Prompt Schoolboy Humour
http://tinyurl.com/oc8zp2j
That said, 4/7 is a bit short given that they would have six weeks before the end of March from February 17th, so there's still plenty of time. I think the 5/4 on yes is value.
My utter finger-waving-in-the-air utter guesswork: they'll have it open for services by the first week of March *if* there are no new storms. A lot will depend on the state of the tides.
Mind you, I was wrong when I said the house at the breach would have to be demolished, at least so far. The engineers on the job have been doing superb work, despite challenges in other areas locally. The use of 20-foot shipping containers filled with rubble to act as a temporary wave break was genius.
It looks as though the foundations and toe of the wall are still intact, so it's probably a case of building a new concrete wall on the foundations, infilling behind, reinstating track, signalling and drainage. There's also lots of other work that needs doing; parapet walls are down over long stretches, and Dawlish station needs some work. But these can be done in parallel.
There'll be much work to be done after the services resume. For instance, if the new wall is to be concrete (and I can't see why it wouldn't), they'll probably need to put a granite wall facing on to please the locals. But that can probably be done after services resume. Expect engineering closures all year as work continues.
But IANAE, so the above should be taken as uninformed conjecture.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_Somerset
Fortunately I took the precaution of eliminating all my pension fund and ISA holdings in utilities a few weeks ago. I shall be moving assets out of UK-dependent shares in general later in the year, in view of the political risk, although I don't think the markets will wake up fully to the risk until towards the end of the year, except in the most obvious sectors such as utilities. I think the UK market therefore has a bit further to go, but I'm avoiding any area where Miliband looks likely to do damage. After all, I don't have the taxpayer to subsidise my pension.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/05/environment-secretary-blind-flood-risks-labour
The only argument I can see against that is that it is awkward squad+1.
And in any case, not enough people have been affected even in that county for it to make a significant difference to people's voting intentions.
Might suggest consumer spending is getting out of hand.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somerset_County_Council_election,_2013
Whether or not people live in the flooded area, it will be dominating the local news long after the national TV moves on.
Having said that, the reaction when the government figured out they had a major problem in a set of marginal constituencies and suddenly went into panic mode would have been funny if it wasn't so serious for those affected. Would we have had the same panic had it been the Liverpool Levels?
However, the current spat has, very unwisely, put the issue of EA budget cuts on the agenda, and that will affect anyone whose day-to-day life is influenced by river levels. Look at Worcester, the home (of course) of that archetypal swing voter, Worcester Woman: a city cut in half by the flooding Severn. Cornwall and half of Devon have lost their railway line. And so on.
It is difficult to see how Pickles thinks that the Government will come out well from his bluster. The more attention that he draws to the EA, the more people will look at the budget cuts that DEFRA has imposed on them. For example, one way the EA is planning to save money is by downgrading lock-keepers on the Thames,. They sound like a charming 19th century irrelevance but are effectively, the flood control system for large parts of Berkshire and Surrey... where quite a lot of noisy people live. And the top story on the BBC News site right now? "UK floods: Swollen Thames threatens thousands of homes."
The EA is an unwieldy beast - the "Inside the Environment Agency" blog offers a partial but revealing take - and most people in flood defence (I've worked in a related field and am still in touch to some degree) agree that its formation was not the Major government's finest hour. The predecessor body, the National Rivers Authority, was working and working well. Major created the EA to be seen as "doing something" about the environment, in the light of the Greens' brief surge of popularity at the European elections that year. Lord Crickhowell's autobiography is very eloquent on the subject. But Pickles' crude swings are not a wise way of attacking it.
We privatised some industries and so they have generally spent money and the grief around sewer failure, interrupted gas supplies etc never happened but has been supplanted by grief over utility bills.
The next sexless / nimbyish area that will become politically explosive is when the lights go out. At current rates of incompetence that looks likely to happen on Redward's watch. There will be the mother of all people vs planet arguments and 'brewery - piss-up / can't even keep the lights on' criticism in the press. However, in Ed's case alot of it might be deserved given the lack of common sense leadership on energy under his ministership.
Lord Rennard serves legal papers on the Lib Dems to lift his suspension. Will result in him seeking costs from Tim Farron.
Incidentally, I haven't quite finished watching it, but the link from the previous thread on demographics is fascinating:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03h8r1j/This_World_Dont_Panic_The_Truth_About_Population/
I used to very much enjoy the Demographics page on Civilisation II. I think it was possible to get the average family size up to several thousand children.
Incidentally, those into such things and with time to kill might enjoy Cybernations or Nation-states.net.
The political danger is in panicking and letting a sense of chaos and arse-covering descend, with ministers and the EA flinging mud (or silt perhaps?) at each other neither comes out looking good. This makes Pickles intervention all the more daft - understandably if they're set-up to be accused of being incompetent idiots the EA will fight back and we can expect to hear a lot more about how the treasury restricted what they could do which will create many more problems than if the govt. had just released more money and admitted that while things weren't perfect everything possible was being done.
https://twitter.com/election_data
"Map showing low-income family households in traditional industrial areas who sympathise with 'other' parties"
twitter.com/election_data/status/432224679273574400
twitter.com/election_data/status/432229892541788161
twitter.com/election_data/status/432469720353099776
Once again Westminster's deranged psychosis is displayed for all to see and UKIP can add another string to their bow.
The Pickles-Smith tit-for-tat is a bit unedifying.
The EA are responsible when they take over from the farmers and impose their own policies (notwithstanding rubbish coming from the EU) without taking due note of what has been successful previously.
If you read the two publications of the EA in 2008 and 2012 on the Somerset Levels thoroughly, they include a lot of waffle and reveal a total inability to understand the situation and show bias in favour of the EA's untested theories.
In my own area which is now not in Somerset, the EA forbade the farmers removing fallen trees etc from the river, which then overflowed onto a trunk road and nearly causing accidents. Thankfully the farmers then ignored the EA, removed debris from the river, dredged it and during the recent heavy rain the river has not overflowed onto the trunk road. Of course the EA threatened legal reprisals and fines but such threats came to nothing when a highly public court battle was promised.
Not sure even a yellow box can make that happen.
Another kick in the nuts for the Met office's credibility though - so called dry winter.
Why not just let farmers do it?
Again.
People are going to look out of the window and notice. Sometimes it rains harder and sometimes it's a light drizzle. Sometimes, occasionally, it's a humdinger and areas, especially low-lying ones, get hammered.
I don't think anyone looks outside the window and thinks: "bloody Tories".
OK some do and if what I am hearing about Pickles's blame game is true he is an oaf and misguided.
But most people think - oh it's raining, that bloke who built a dam around his house is quite clever, thank goodness it's not me (apart from the relatively few households who it is) and move on.
If Lab try to blame the Coalition people will see it as desperate politicking, no matter the ins and outs of who did or didn't dredge what.
Lib Dem sources say they have recieved "a legal letter" from @lordrennard but dispute this amounts to "legal papers"
norman smith @BBCNormanS 6m
Sources say @lordrennard will seek costs against Tim Farron if case goes to court
At least he knows his audience!
That said, it's worth mentioning weather forecasts over 3-5 days or so are pretty good. I might be imagining it, but they seem much more accurate than they were a few years ago.
Clearly the public are blaming UKIP for letting the gay marriages cause these floods.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P-9oYUwA_E
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-targeting-ukip-nigel-farages-3130069
The real nasty party ?
Not only that but if one believes the political and technical orthodoxy surrounding this issue, such events are likely to become more frequent and more widespread. People won't forget something if they are worried it might happen to them and they don't think the government is going to help them.
It won't be a game changer ion its own in 2015 but it won't do any of the Westminster party's any good and in particular both government parties. Put it alongside other issues (like International Aid) and its going to have an effect.
As for Pickles his performance (defending foreign aid as he did) has been as inept as Smith's. He's sacrificed his credibility for nothing. They deserve each other!
PS The Government had the opportunity to ditch Smith three years ago and chose not to. More fool them!
I can only find the seasonal forecast for February - April.
Then we'd have to think about letting Clegg into the debates!
I really don;t think labour will get far claiming the EA is underfunded.
Is scanning widespread? The problem will of course dissipate as soon as he looks older and/or decides to frequent venues which don't "scan".
That said, I can't see why someone of one establishment is able to dictate to another establishment who they can or cannot allow to enter.
But that's probably because I am an old git and don't "get it" anymore.
The point is not so much whether it's a necessary thing, but whether it's a popular thing.
(Sky video interview on link below)
http://www.ukip.org/newsroom/news/1146-let-s-put-our-flood-victims-ahead-of-foreign-aid-to-countries-that-don-t-need-it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clubscan
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10627883/Flooding-crisis-weather-live.html
Let's hope HM has some wellies!
"With colder-than-normal conditions being favoured, as indicated in
the temperature section, the probabilities for precipitation falling as
snow and for occurrence of ice this winter will be higher than the
climatological values."
Suggests that this sort of forecast is "brave" and of "limited value" - so why bother ?
I think when the Met Office started there were less aware of how good (or not) their forecasts were. Cynics like you would have had them shut down back then before they could make any progress.
I notice that one of the times that they ran the model it produced a lot of rain. I imagine they will be looking at how that forecast was different to all the others and learning from it.
"Tory grandee Sir Peter Tapsell rose at a meeting of Tory MPs ... said he would give £10,000 from his own pocket to pay for an open primary"
http://order-order.com/2014/02/10/tapsell-offers-10000-to-pay-for-thirsk-open-primary/
Farmers can also cause damage themselves; a flood on the Dove in the 1980s was caused by a farmer digging a ramp through a flood bankcattle lowering the flood bank in one place.
Having said all that, for small streams and rivers, there's no reason why a farmer could not do it with advice from the relevant authorities. After all, many are used to doing exactly this sort of thing.
Nowadays though, they'd probably need a strict environmental survey to check there's no lesser-greater-spotted-striped-newt-tit nestling in the area.
(*): http://www.worksopguardian.co.uk/news/local/memories-of-pulling-the-plug-on-canal-1-624620
Realistically, try the next nearest club and talk to their management would be an idea.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26122651