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Red Wall poll has LAB winning ALL the seats back – politicalbetting.com
Red Wall poll has LAB winning ALL the seats back – politicalbetting.com
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Red Wall poll has LAB winning ALL the seats back – politicalbetting.com
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Labour most trusted in the Red Wall on EVERY issue.
Party Trustworthiness (25 June):
Who do Red Wall voters trust the most on...? (Lab | Con)
NHS (42% | 16%)
Economy (37% | 22%)
Immigration (30% | 18%)
Foreign Affairs (33% | 24%)
Ukraine (29% | 26%)
Keir Starmer Red Wall Net Approval Rating (25 June):
Approve: 40% (+4)
Disapprove: 29% (-1)
Net: +11% (+5)
Changes +/- 11 June
Rishi Sunak Red Wall Net Approval Rating (25 June):
Disapprove: 45% (+2)
Approve: 29% (+2)
Net: -16% (–)
Changes +/- 11 June
Surprisingly.
It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...
Fit in well with all those DM headlines about child murderers having a day out at some holiday resort on your taxes.
1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell
So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?
Mmm ...
I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.
Where do you try and make your stand?
Go too cautious (pour resources into Portsmouth North, majority 16k) and you are baking in a defeat. Try and defend Dewsbury (majority 1600) and you are wasting your time.
Wasn't it 2015 where the places the leaders campaigned was a pretty good measure of where the real battlefield was? Dave in the Westcountry showing both a Conservative majority and Lib Dem collapse? Albeit a win that didn't help Dave's flavour of Conservatism.
You can laugh at me now, but you'll all be looking jolly silly by 5 a.m. just you wait.
'Goodbye, World King. So they've screwed you after all
You had the nerve to champion Leave. While those around you backed Remain
They've crawled out of the woodwork. And conspired to topple you
For having the audacity. To get us out of the EU.
Though it seems to me you've lived your life. On a gamble and a whim.
But when push has come to shove. You found a way to win.
And that's why they resent you. Want to bury you for good.
Because you've always reached the parts. These losers never could.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12236039/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Elton-John-brings-curtain-Glastonbury.html
He didn't necessarily believe in Vote Leave's version, let alone Johnson's version. But "deregulate and become a cheap global hub" was a coherent Brexit vision, just not one that voters would ever go for.
Actually, carry on.
> On Sunak, unds/dks dropped from 30% to 26% (-4%)
Conclusion: voter attitudes appear to be jelling and in way favoring Labour, in these Red Wall seats.
At least for the rest of the summer, and perhaps beyond . . .
Starmer ain't no Blair. Neither is he Corbyn. For 2023, later probably more important than the former.
New Democracy giving another lie to the idea that the centre-right in Europe is in terminal decline.
I’m far from sure that the Ulez play is the big vote winning the Tories think it is.
Of more a big worry, is the reappearance of the far-right there. One party, with about 4%, is a descendant of Golden Dawn, and another two, with about four percent each, are loopy pro-Russian parties. There's a stubborn group of about 20%, in both Italy and Greece, but for slightly different reasons, who always tend to give Russia the benefit of the doubt, even while most of the parties have abandoned that sort of thing there since Ukraine.
Interesting R&W polling on Sadiq Khan - a plurality of Londoners, it seems, aren't keen on him running again. That said, no anti-Khan candidate has got anywhere near the public imagination - Susan Hall isn't the right candidate for London Mayor.
Were a different Labour candidate running, this would be a complete shoo-in for Labour but with Khan you just wonder...fortunately, the Conservatives will do him a favour and it seems unlikely a single anti-Khan candidate will emerge around whom all the opposition could unite.
The Red Wall polling has an enormous 18% swing from Conservative to Labour which wouldn't just sweep the Wall away but most of the town as well. Wellingborough, the 250th most marginal seat for the Conservatives, falls on that swing.
Looking at Greece (keep up), I was slightly surprised it wasn't a more resounding win for ND. Indeed, Mitsotakis failed to build on the May result and was helped into a narrow majority by the decline in left-wing votes and the rise in right and far-right votes. PASOK look well placed to become the lead opposition party.
On topic (it's been a journey), the Selby & Ainsty contest interests me most. The Conservatives may well benefit from a divided opposition - Labour are strong in strength but the Greens may do well in some of the rural areas while the LDs perhaps make some ground in Tadcaster and elsewhere.
A Conservative hold with 35-40% of the vote isn't inconceivable. However, Selby & Ainsty is, oddly enough, almost as marginal as Wellingborough (it's 249 on the Conservative marginal list) so a defeat here would suggest Conservative MPs should consider almost every seat a marginal.
Truss? 'Let's crash the car!'
Hard to beat the idea that a referendum vote to leave the EU ends up with the UK embedded in the EU in a way that wouldn't have happened had the UK voted for Dave's deal.
Not saying it will happen, or even that it should, but it would be satirical. I can imagine Gilbert and Sullivan thinking "No, that's too absurd. Let's finish with the House of Lords all marrying fairies instead."
I spent 4 years helping multinationals move stuff out of the UK following the vote because they lost regulatory passporting rights and faced a hard customs border. Sheer petty nationalistic economic stupidity.
In a conversation with provocative comedian Theo Von, Barr, 70, said the Holocaust never happened, "but should have" as "Jews cause all the problems in the world."
https://www.thejc.com/news/world/disgraced-american-comedian-roseanne-barr-says-6-million-jews-should-die-7AKu8J3kY2CJkAShswdmGj
Personally, I live in Zone 3 and am a big supporter of it. It’s the one thing Khan has done that I can get behind enthusiastically. That’s because it’s proven to reduce pollution and I’m very much in favour of cleaner air. But maybe I’m just unusual in that, and outer Londoners want to continue to live in an asthma inducing smog so long as it means they can keep their diesel Volvo Estate?
But, on second thoughts, he should probably give that up as well.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/ulez-poll-more-in-common-majority-londoners-support-political-leaning-tory-voters-sadiq-khan-b1082273.html
Bizarrely more popular in London than the rest of the country.
also st Pterry said
Terry Pratchett said of 'workshopping' that it was 'the means by which people who don't know anything get together to pool their ignorance'.
I
I wouldn’t think they would win any of these Red Wall seats, but in the Blue Wall Rejoin is a definite vote winner.
The Tories are peering into the abyss. Under a hundred seats is very possible on current polls.
Not sure we have much leverage on relaxing 90 days. We already offer 180 days to EU citizens. In fact, we offer 180 days to many countries, and most don't reciprocate. Canada and Mexico being two notable exceptions. But Australia don't, for example.
Instead of trying to blame "Remainers", Littlejohn and those like him who bemoan the departure of Johnson should be blaming the Conservative Party.
Out of the many group, very few people are going to be switching their votes to Labour based on slightly cleaner air. A lot of the people passionate about that subject will vote Green (or for a local independent or LD) anyway.
Out of the smaller groups, a much higher percentage will switch votes because they feel unfairly picked on or its hurt them significantly economically.
It is very similar to taxing private schools. Most people will be in favour, but very few will switch to Labour because of the policy, but Labour will definitely lose votes from some of those who pay fees and don't want them taxed.
Remember Trump fans chant 'Jews will not replace us.'
ULEZ fear might play for the Conservatives in Uxbridge next month, but I doubt that it will harm Sadiq next spring.