Red Wall poll has LAB winning ALL the seats back – politicalbetting.com

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Red Wall poll has LAB winning ALL the seats back – politicalbetting.com

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Miklosvar

Quelle surprise.

Beibheirli_C

Good!

kle4

MIght miss one or two, but make up for it with unexpected wins elsewhere.

Miklosvar

Beibheirli_C said:

Good!

I expect @Heathener will be along soon to predict that a labour majority is not out of the question.

Luckyguy1983

Sunak fans please explain.

eek

Worth looking at the detail

Labour most trusted in the Red Wall on EVERY issue.

Party Trustworthiness (25 June):

Who do Red Wall voters trust the most on...? (Lab | Con)

NHS (42% | 16%)
Economy (37% | 22%)
Immigration (30% | 18%)
Foreign Affairs (33% | 24%)
Ukraine (29% | 26%)

Keir Starmer Red Wall Net Approval Rating (25 June):

Approve: 40% (+4)
Disapprove: 29% (-1)
Net: +11% (+5)

Changes +/- 11 June

Rishi Sunak Red Wall Net Approval Rating (25 June):

Disapprove: 45% (+2)
Approve: 29% (+2)
Net: -16% (–)

Changes +/- 11 June

Beibheirli_C

Miklosvar said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Good!

I expect @Heathener will be along soon to predict that a labour majority is not out of the question.

I am tempted to predict that the "Conservatives" will be the third party after the election and will elect a raving loony with policies that would make Pichet look like a Marxist

Carnyx

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Miklosvar

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sunak fans please explain.

The country is presently one great "red rosette on a donkey" constituency, and SKS is the donkey. Corbyn would walk GE 2024.

noneoftheabove

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sunak fans please explain.

Boris lied to win their votes. No-one else, and possibly/probably not even Bozo, capable of sustaining the lie.

kle4

Interesting election in Greece - 10 years after losing their status as one of the big two parties, PASOK, whilst still very low, are almost at the same level as their replacement, Syrizia, after the most recent election.

Anabobazina

Starmer's beery, curry-eating, illegal ice-cream selling past a big hit up north.

Heathener

Miklosvar said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Good!

I expect @Heathener will be along soon to predict that a labour majority is not out of the question.

To be fair I posted this very thing on the previous thread.

Surprisingly.

Beibheirli_C

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

Beibheirli_C

Heathener said:

Miklosvar said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Good!

I expect @Heathener will be along soon to predict that a labour majority is not out of the question.

To be fair I posted this very thing on the previous thread.

Surprisingly.

That did not take long

noneoftheabove

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Only about a third of adults have a mortgage, although overly concentrated in Tory marginals, often Tory/LD marginals, hence the silly LD mortgage support scheme suggestion.

Carnyx

Beibheirli_C said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

If the Government doesn.t, then just imagine the headlines? "Tories give asylum seekers [sic] free £165K tropical holidays on your tax!!"

Fit in well with all those DM headlines about child murderers having a day out at some holiday resort on your taxes.

Clutch_Brompton

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Carnyx

noneoftheabove said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Only about a third of adults have a mortgage, although overly concentrated in Tory marginals, often Tory/LD marginals, hence the silly LD mortgage support scheme suggestion.

Sure, but they are concentrated in the working population which is getting the chocolatey end of the stick at the moment (e.g. on NI). And a lot of the rest are renters who are the next disaster area, as @pigeon pointed out a thread or two back. People in the lower income bands can't find anywhere to rent in increasingly large geographical areas.

Clutch_Brompton

A moment of silence for the Raab Bill of Rights...

Pagan2

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

Carnyx

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/27/rishi-sunak-seen-using-erasable-ink-pens-on-official-documents-and-in-meetings

Mmm ...

noneoftheabove

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Tory over performing areas probably midlands and poorer outer London/M25 fringe playing on ULEZ. Shafted elsewhere though and hard to see much recovery within 18 months.

kle4

Clutch_Brompton said:

A moment of silence for the Raab Bill of Rights...

Seems like the right call, but it comes across like all this government can agree on at the moment is where not to do stuff.

Mexicanpete

Beibheirli_C said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

Workhouses would be a far more economical model to deal with the destitute.

Pagan2

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

Workhouses would be a far more economical model to deal with the destitute.

Can you imagine the guardian if the tories ever said workhouses what a good idea?

Foxy

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

noneoftheabove

Carnyx said:

noneoftheabove said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Only about a third of adults have a mortgage, although overly concentrated in Tory marginals, often Tory/LD marginals, hence the silly LD mortgage support scheme suggestion.

Sure, but they are concentrated in the working population which is getting the chocolatey end of the stick at the moment (e.g. on NI). And a lot of the rest are renters who are the next disaster area, as @pigeon pointed out a thread or two back. People in the lower income bands can't find anywhere to rent in increasingly large geographical areas.

Taxpaying renters the ones continually shafted (the most) by the Tories.

SandyRentool

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Oh yes. If these are the only seats we win from the Tories then we are buggered.

Pagan2

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Stuartinromford

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

The other problem for any party in a wave election, though it hurts the defenders more.

Where do you try and make your stand?

Go too cautious (pour resources into Portsmouth North, majority 16k) and you are baking in a defeat. Try and defend Dewsbury (majority 1600) and you are wasting your time.

Wasn't it 2015 where the places the leaders campaigned was a pretty good measure of where the real battlefield was? Dave in the Westcountry showing both a Conservative majority and Lib Dem collapse? Albeit a win that didn't help Dave's flavour of Conservatism.

Mexicanpete

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

Workhouses would be a far more economical model to deal with the destitute.

Can you imagine the guardian if the tories ever said workhouses what a good idea?

I would hope the condemnation would be universal.

Omnium

kle4 said:

Interesting election in Greece - 10 years after losing their status as one of the big two parties, PASOK, whilst still very low, are almost at the same level as their replacement, Syrizia, after the most recent election.

I presume, given it's Greece, that it's not so much 'New Democracy', but rather Democracy version846?

Miklosvar

Heathener said:

Miklosvar said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Good!

I expect @Heathener will be along soon to predict that a labour majority is not out of the question.

To be fair I posted this very thing on the previous thread.

Surprisingly.

And I am going out on a limb and saying the sun will rise tomorrow.

You can laugh at me now, but you'll all be looking jolly silly by 5 a.m. just you wait.

Pagan2

Mexicanpete said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

Workhouses would be a far more economical model to deal with the destitute.

Can you imagine the guardian if the tories ever said workhouses what a good idea?

I would hope the condemnation would be universal.

I wasn't saying they were a good idea. Merely saying they would be politically dynamite

Miklosvar

Omnium said:

kle4 said:

Interesting election in Greece - 10 years after losing their status as one of the big two parties, PASOK, whilst still very low, are almost at the same level as their replacement, Syrizia, after the most recent election.

I presume, given it's Greece, that it's not so much 'New Democracy', but rather Democracy version846?

They started it....

HYUFD

On the redwall poll, to the tune of candle in the wind...

'Goodbye, World King. So they've screwed you after all

You had the nerve to champion Leave. While those around you backed Remain

They've crawled out of the woodwork. And conspired to topple you

For having the audacity. To get us out of the EU.

Though it seems to me you've lived your life. On a gamble and a whim.

But when push has come to shove. You found a way to win.

And that's why they resent you. Want to bury you for good.

Because you've always reached the parts. These losers never could.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12236039/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Elton-John-brings-curtain-Glastonbury.html

SandyRentool

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

Mexicanpete

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

Workhouses would be a far more economical model to deal with the destitute.

Can you imagine the guardian if the tories ever said workhouses what a good idea?

I would hope the condemnation would be universal.

I wasn't saying they were a good idea. Merely saying they would be politically dynamite

If anyone can pull it off PM Suella could.

Pagan2

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

Beibheirli_C

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/27/rishi-sunak-seen-using-erasable-ink-pens-on-official-documents-and-in-meetings

Mmm ...

We need a ROFL button....

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

On the redwall poll, to the tune of candle in the wind...

'Goodbye, World King. So they've screwed you after all

You had the nerve to champion Leave. While those around you backed Remain

They've crawled out of the woodwork. And conspired to topple you

For having the audacity. To get us out of the EU.

Though it seems to me you've lived your life. On a gamble and a whim.

But when push has come to shove. You found a way to win.

And that's why they resent you. Want to bury you for good.

Because you've always reached the parts. These losers never could.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12236039/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Elton-John-brings-curtain-Glastonbury.html

Bring back the WTF button.

Pagan2

Mexicanpete said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

Workhouses would be a far more economical model to deal with the destitute.

Can you imagine the guardian if the tories ever said workhouses what a good idea?

I would hope the condemnation would be universal.

I wasn't saying they were a good idea. Merely saying they would be politically dynamite

If anyone can pull it off PM Suella could.

Well if Suella ever ends up as pm I suspect we are in end of days country in any case

SandyRentool

HYUFD said:

On the redwall poll, to the tune of candle in the wind...

'Goodbye, World King. So they've screwed you after all

You had the nerve to champion Leave. While those around you backed Remain

They've crawled out of the woodwork. And conspired to topple you

For having the audacity. To get us out of the EU.

Though it seems to me you've lived your life. On a gamble and a whim.

But when push has come to shove. You found a way to win.

And that's why they resent you. Want to bury you for good.

Because you've always reached the parts. These losers never could.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12236039/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Elton-John-brings-curtain-Glastonbury.html

Someone has forgotten to take their medication.

Omnium

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

Workhouses would be a far more economical model to deal with the destitute.

Can you imagine the guardian if the tories ever said workhouses what a good idea?

I would hope the condemnation would be universal.

I wasn't saying they were a good idea. Merely saying they would be politically dynamite

If anyone can pull it off PM Suella could.

Well if Suella ever ends up as pm I suspect we are in end of days country in any case

She reminds me of Brown - all presumption and little merit.

Pagan2

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

On the redwall poll, to the tune of candle in the wind...

'Goodbye, World King. So they've screwed you after all

You had the nerve to champion Leave. While those around you backed Remain

They've crawled out of the woodwork. And conspired to topple you

For having the audacity. To get us out of the EU.

Though it seems to me you've lived your life. On a gamble and a whim.

But when push has come to shove. You found a way to win.

And that's why they resent you. Want to bury you for good.

Because you've always reached the parts. These losers never could.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12236039/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Elton-John-brings-curtain-Glastonbury.html

Someone has forgotten to take their medication.

To get medicated you have to first recognise your insanity

TimS

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

Workhouses would be a far more economical model to deal with the destitute.

Can you imagine the guardian if the tories ever said workhouses what a good idea?

I would hope the condemnation would be universal.

I wasn't saying they were a good idea. Merely saying they would be politically dynamite

“Imagine the guardian if the Tories ever advocated bringing back witch-burning”.

Stuartinromford

HYUFD said:

On the redwall poll, to the tune of candle in the wind...

'Goodbye, World King. So they've screwed you after all

You had the nerve to champion Leave. While those around you backed Remain

They've crawled out of the woodwork. And conspired to topple you

For having the audacity. To get us out of the EU.

Though it seems to me you've lived your life. On a gamble and a whim.

But when push has come to shove. You found a way to win.

And that's why they resent you. Want to bury you for good.

Because you've always reached the parts. These losers never could.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12236039/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Elton-John-brings-curtain-Glastonbury.html

The irony being that Rishi believed in Brexit earlier and more sincerely than Johnson.

He didn't necessarily believe in Vote Leave's version, let alone Johnson's version. But "deregulate and become a cheap global hub" was a coherent Brexit vision, just not one that voters would ever go for.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, perhaps Liz Truss wasn't so bad after all.

Miklosvar

HYUFD said:

On the redwall poll, to the tune of candle in the wind...

'Goodbye, World King. So they've screwed you after all

You had the nerve to champion Leave. While those around you backed Remain

They've crawled out of the woodwork. And conspired to topple you

For having the audacity. To get us out of the EU.

Though it seems to me you've lived your life. On a gamble and a whim.

But when push has come to shove. You found a way to win.

And that's why they resent you. Want to bury you for good.

Because you've always reached the parts. These losers never could.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12236039/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Elton-John-brings-curtain-Glastonbury.html

Sacrilege. The original subject of that song had blonde hair and the most enormous breasts.

Actually, carry on.

Pagan2

TimS said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

Workhouses would be a far more economical model to deal with the destitute.

Can you imagine the guardian if the tories ever said workhouses what a good idea?

I would hope the condemnation would be universal.

I wasn't saying they were a good idea. Merely saying they would be politically dynamite

“Imagine the guardian if the Tories ever advocated bringing back witch-burning”.

As someone with ancestors that got hung for being a witch, I sort of find that objectionable

SandyRentool

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

No passport queues or foreign exchange costs when you go on holiday? Big plusses. Should boost the Rejoin vote.

Mexicanpete

HYUFD said:

On the redwall poll, to the tune of candle in the wind...

'Goodbye, World King. So they've screwed you after all

You had the nerve to champion Leave. While those around you backed Remain

They've crawled out of the woodwork. And conspired to topple you

For having the audacity. To get us out of the EU.

Though it seems to me you've lived your life. On a gamble and a whim.

But when push has come to shove. You found a way to win.

And that's why they resent you. Want to bury you for good.

Because you've always reached the parts. These losers never could.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12236039/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Elton-John-brings-curtain-Glastonbury.html

Has anyone ever seen HY and Richard Littlejohn in the same room?

Ghedebrav

HYUFD said:

On the redwall poll, to the tune of candle in the wind...

'Goodbye, World King. So they've screwed you after all

You had the nerve to champion Leave. While those around you backed Remain

They've crawled out of the woodwork. And conspired to topple you

For having the audacity. To get us out of the EU.

Though it seems to me you've lived your life. On a gamble and a whim.

But when push has come to shove. You found a way to win.

And that's why they resent you. Want to bury you for good.

Because you've always reached the parts. These losers never could.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12236039/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Elton-John-brings-curtain-Glastonbury.html

In case there was any doubt that satire was dead.

TimS

Omnium said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

Workhouses would be a far more economical model to deal with the destitute.

Can you imagine the guardian if the tories ever said workhouses what a good idea?

I would hope the condemnation would be universal.

I wasn't saying they were a good idea. Merely saying they would be politically dynamite

If anyone can pull it off PM Suella could.

Well if Suella ever ends up as pm I suspect we are in end of days country in any case

She reminds me of Brown - all presumption and little merit.

He was altogether in a different intellectual league.

Omnium

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, perhaps Liz Truss wasn't so bad after all.

Er, no. She is as bad as it gets.

SeaShantyIrish2

eek said:

Worth looking at the detail

Labour most trusted in the Red Wall on EVERY issue.

Party Trustworthiness (25 June):

Who do Red Wall voters trust the most on...? (Lab | Con)

NHS (42% | 16%)
Economy (37% | 22%)
Immigration (30% | 18%)
Foreign Affairs (33% | 24%)
Ukraine (29% | 26%)

Keir Starmer Red Wall Net Approval Rating (25 June):

Approve: 40% (+4)
Disapprove: 29% (-1)
Net: +11% (+5)

Changes +/- 11 June

Rishi Sunak Red Wall Net Approval Rating (25 June):

Disapprove: 45% (+2)
Approve: 29% (+2)
Net: -16% (–)

Changes +/- 11 June

> On Starmer, undecideds/don't knows declined from 34% to 31% (-3%)
> On Sunak, unds/dks dropped from 30% to 26% (-4%)

Conclusion: voter attitudes appear to be jelling and in way favoring Labour, in these Red Wall seats.

At least for the rest of the summer, and perhaps beyond . . .

Starmer ain't no Blair. Neither is he Corbyn. For 2023, later probably more important than the former.

TheKitchenCabinet

Omnium said:

kle4 said:

Interesting election in Greece - 10 years after losing their status as one of the big two parties, PASOK, whilst still very low, are almost at the same level as their replacement, Syrizia, after the most recent election.

I presume, given it's Greece, that it's not so much 'New Democracy', but rather Democracy version846?

However, also heading in the wrong direction.

New Democracy giving another lie to the idea that the centre-right in Europe is in terminal decline.

Anabobazina

noneoftheabove said:

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Tory over performing areas probably midlands and poorer outer London/M25 fringe playing on ULEZ. Shafted elsewhere though and hard to see much recovery within 18 months.

The Ulez-X will have been in force over a year by the likely time of the GE. In all likelihood, people will have come to terms with it by then.

I’m far from sure that the Ulez play is the big vote winning the Tories think it is.

Scott_xP

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, perhaps Liz Truss wasn't so bad after all.

WTF?

Omnium

TimS said:

Omnium said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Pagan2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Carnyx said:

Hmm, almost as low as in the Trussonomic trough. Mortgages increasingly preoccupying folk as rates go up and more people come to the end of fixed deals? And (as pigeon said) renters finding themselves up shit creek, even more so than houseowners (however partial)?

Maybe we could send mortgage defaulters to Rwanda and add £63,000 to their default? It could be like a big workhouse until they pay off their debt.

It would take pressure of the housing market and is in line with other sound Conservative policies for a happier Britain...

Workhouses would be a far more economical model to deal with the destitute.

Can you imagine the guardian if the tories ever said workhouses what a good idea?

I would hope the condemnation would be universal.

I wasn't saying they were a good idea. Merely saying they would be politically dynamite

If anyone can pull it off PM Suella could.

Well if Suella ever ends up as pm I suspect we are in end of days country in any case

She reminds me of Brown - all presumption and little merit.

He was altogether in a different intellectual league.

Well ok, so Braverman is just about professional, and Brown played for the retired schoolboys of Cowdenbeath reserves. But you can see the parallels.

TimS

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

No passport queues or foreign exchange costs when you go on holiday? Big plusses. Should boost the Rejoin vote.

I’m fresh back from the periodic Tory-sponsored micro-aggression that is the long slow all-passports queue and stamping at Copenhagen airport, so I endorse this message.

WhisperingOracle

Big victory for the mainstream conservatives in Greece.

Of more a big worry, is the reappearance of the far-right there. One party, with about 4%, is a descendant of Golden Dawn, and another two, with about four percent each, are loopy pro-Russian parties. There's a stubborn group of about 20%, in both Italy and Greece, but for slightly different reasons, who always tend to give Russia the benefit of the doubt, even while most of the parties have abandoned that sort of thing there since Ukraine.

TimS

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, perhaps Liz Truss wasn't so bad after all.

Er, no. She is as bad as it gets.

Sunak’s premiership is proving a more chronic ailment to Truss’s acute attack, though. A sort of Long-Tory syndrome.

Pagan2

TimS said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

No passport queues or foreign exchange costs when you go on holiday? Big plusses. Should boost the Rejoin vote.

I’m fresh back from the periodic Tory-sponsored micro-aggression that is the long slow all-passports queue and stamping at Copenhagen airport, so I endorse this message.

Really the county should pay 10 bill + a year so you dont have to queue up so long on your holidays? How shallow are you?

noneoftheabove

Anabobazina said:

noneoftheabove said:

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Tory over performing areas probably midlands and poorer outer London/M25 fringe playing on ULEZ. Shafted elsewhere though and hard to see much recovery within 18 months.

The Ulez-X will have been in force over a year by the likely time of the GE. In all likelihood, people will have come to terms with it by then.

I’m far from sure that the Ulez play is the big vote winning the Tories think it is.

Whether it is a big vote winner or not, it is one of the very few plausible reasons for Labour-Tory switchers so reasonable to assume Tories overperform in poorer outer London fringe areas. That "overperformance" probably still involves losing seats there too.

stodge

Evening all

Interesting R&W polling on Sadiq Khan - a plurality of Londoners, it seems, aren't keen on him running again. That said, no anti-Khan candidate has got anywhere near the public imagination - Susan Hall isn't the right candidate for London Mayor.

Were a different Labour candidate running, this would be a complete shoo-in for Labour but with Khan you just wonder...fortunately, the Conservatives will do him a favour and it seems unlikely a single anti-Khan candidate will emerge around whom all the opposition could unite.

The Red Wall polling has an enormous 18% swing from Conservative to Labour which wouldn't just sweep the Wall away but most of the town as well. Wellingborough, the 250th most marginal seat for the Conservatives, falls on that swing.

Looking at Greece (keep up), I was slightly surprised it wasn't a more resounding win for ND. Indeed, Mitsotakis failed to build on the May result and was helped into a narrow majority by the decline in left-wing votes and the rise in right and far-right votes. PASOK look well placed to become the lead opposition party.

On topic (it's been a journey), the Selby & Ainsty contest interests me most. The Conservatives may well benefit from a divided opposition - Labour are strong in strength but the Greens may do well in some of the rural areas while the LDs perhaps make some ground in Tadcaster and elsewhere.

A Conservative hold with 35-40% of the vote isn't inconceivable. However, Selby & Ainsty is, oddly enough, almost as marginal as Wellingborough (it's 249 on the Conservative marginal list) so a defeat here would suggest Conservative MPs should consider almost every seat a marginal.

Omnium

TimS said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, perhaps Liz Truss wasn't so bad after all.

Er, no. She is as bad as it gets.

Sunak’s premiership is proving a more chronic ailment to Truss’s acute attack, though. A sort of Long-Tory syndrome.

Sunak's doing nothing terribly wrong, but little right.

Truss? 'Let's crash the car!'

Stuartinromford

TimS said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

No passport queues or foreign exchange costs when you go on holiday? Big plusses. Should boost the Rejoin vote.

I’m fresh back from the periodic Tory-sponsored micro-aggression that is the long slow all-passports queue and stamping at Copenhagen airport, so I endorse this message.

Remember the Banter Heuristic? The funniest/most satirical outcome is the one that happens?

Hard to beat the idea that a referendum vote to leave the EU ends up with the UK embedded in the EU in a way that wouldn't have happened had the UK voted for Dave's deal.

Not saying it will happen, or even that it should, but it would be satirical. I can imagine Gilbert and Sullivan thinking "No, that's too absurd. Let's finish with the House of Lords all marrying fairies instead."

TimS

Pagan2 said:

TimS said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

No passport queues or foreign exchange costs when you go on holiday? Big plusses. Should boost the Rejoin vote.

I’m fresh back from the periodic Tory-sponsored micro-aggression that is the long slow all-passports queue and stamping at Copenhagen airport, so I endorse this message.

Really the county should pay 10 bill + a year so you dont have to queue up so long on your holidays? How shallow are you?

The country might like the idea of being substantially richer, and not having to queue up. You know, by joining a huge integrated single market.

I spent 4 years helping multinationals move stuff out of the UK following the vote because they lost regulatory passporting rights and faced a hard customs border. Sheer petty nationalistic economic stupidity.

TheScreamingEagles

Scott_xP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, perhaps Liz Truss wasn't so bad after all.

WTF?

Just thinking about some ideas for threads.

noneoftheabove

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

No passport queues or foreign exchange costs when you go on holiday? Big plusses. Should boost the Rejoin vote.

Another tiny possible win for Sunak would be getting access to EU e-gates for UK citizens. Leavers will mock and deny its a problem but definitely a psychological reminder to vote the Tories out for many each time they queue.

Pagan2

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

No passport queues or foreign exchange costs when you go on holiday? Big plusses. Should boost the Rejoin vote.

I’m fresh back from the periodic Tory-sponsored micro-aggression that is the long slow all-passports queue and stamping at Copenhagen airport, so I endorse this message.

Remember the Banter Heuristic? The funniest/most satirical outcome is the one that happens?

Hard to beat the idea that a referendum vote to leave the EU ends up with the UK embedded in the EU in a way that wouldn't have happened had the UK voted for Dave's deal.

Not saying it will happen, or even that it should, but it would be satirical. I can imagine Gilbert and Sullivan thinking "No, that's too absurd. Let's finish with the House of Lords all marrying fairies instead."

Dave didn't have a deal because it wasn't written into treaties, ask denmark how the agreements with the eu went that were about the same standard as Daves so called deal...or blairs agreement to give up cap reform for half our rebate where the rebate got cut as agreed but when it came to cap reform the eu went...not in a treaty dont care

Omnium

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_xP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, perhaps Liz Truss wasn't so bad after all.

WTF?

Just thinking about some ideas for threads.

Saville Row.

TheScreamingEagles

American comedian Roseanne Barr has been criticised for a podcast interview in which she said that six million Jews 'should be killed.'

In a conversation with provocative comedian Theo Von, Barr, 70, said the Holocaust never happened, "but should have" as "Jews cause all the problems in the world."

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/disgraced-american-comedian-roseanne-barr-says-6-million-jews-should-die-7AKu8J3kY2CJkAShswdmGj

TimS

noneoftheabove said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

No passport queues or foreign exchange costs when you go on holiday? Big plusses. Should boost the Rejoin vote.

Another tiny possible win for Sunak would be getting access to EU e-gates for UK citizens. Leavers will mock and deny its a problem but definitely a psychological reminder to vote the Tories out for many each time they queue.

More to the point a potential win for Starmer once in power. Ideally combined with a relaxation of the 90 day rule which the passport officer noted today I am getting close to breaching.

noneoftheabove

Omnium said:

TimS said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, perhaps Liz Truss wasn't so bad after all.

Er, no. She is as bad as it gets.

Sunak’s premiership is proving a more chronic ailment to Truss’s acute attack, though. A sort of Long-Tory syndrome.

Sunak's doing nothing terribly wrong, but little right.

Truss? 'Let's crash the car!'

Braverman, Williamson, Zahawi and Raab all terribly wrong to many of us.

SeaShantyIrish2

Anabobazina said:

Starmer's beery, curry-eating, illegal ice-cream selling past a big hit up north.

Try Keir Starmer's Newest Exciting New(er) Labour Flavour = Pale Ale & Korma Curry Ice Cream!

ThomasNashe

Anabobazina said:

noneoftheabove said:

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Tory over performing areas probably midlands and poorer outer London/M25 fringe playing on ULEZ. Shafted elsewhere though and hard to see much recovery within 18 months.

The Ulez-X will have been in force over a year by the likely time of the GE. In all likelihood, people will have come to terms with it by then.

I’m far from sure that the Ulez play is the big vote winning the Tories think it is.

Yes, I’d like to see some polling on ULEZ.

Personally, I live in Zone 3 and am a big supporter of it. It’s the one thing Khan has done that I can get behind enthusiastically. That’s because it’s proven to reduce pollution and I’m very much in favour of cleaner air. But maybe I’m just unusual in that, and outer Londoners want to continue to live in an asthma inducing smog so long as it means they can keep their diesel Volvo Estate?

TimS

Pagan2 said:

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

No passport queues or foreign exchange costs when you go on holiday? Big plusses. Should boost the Rejoin vote.

I’m fresh back from the periodic Tory-sponsored micro-aggression that is the long slow all-passports queue and stamping at Copenhagen airport, so I endorse this message.

Remember the Banter Heuristic? The funniest/most satirical outcome is the one that happens?

Hard to beat the idea that a referendum vote to leave the EU ends up with the UK embedded in the EU in a way that wouldn't have happened had the UK voted for Dave's deal.

Not saying it will happen, or even that it should, but it would be satirical. I can imagine Gilbert and Sullivan thinking "No, that's too absurd. Let's finish with the House of Lords all marrying fairies instead."

Dave didn't have a deal because it wasn't written into treaties, ask denmark how the agreements with the eu went that were about the same standard as Daves so called deal...or blairs agreement to give up cap reform for half our rebate where the rebate got cut as agreed but when it came to cap reform the eu went...not in a treaty dont care

As it happens I was in Denmark today doing “workshops”. Nice country, long passport queues.

Anabobazina

HYUFD said:

On the redwall poll, to the tune of candle in the wind...

'Goodbye, World King. So they've screwed you after all

You had the nerve to champion Leave. While those around you backed Remain

They've crawled out of the woodwork. And conspired to topple you

For having the audacity. To get us out of the EU.

Though it seems to me you've lived your life. On a gamble and a whim.

But when push has come to shove. You found a way to win.

And that's why they resent you. Want to bury you for good.

Because you've always reached the parts. These losers never could.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12236039/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Elton-John-brings-curtain-Glastonbury.html

I was going to say that Littlejohn shouldn’t give up the day job.

But, on second thoughts, he should probably give that up as well.

Omnium

noneoftheabove said:

Omnium said:

TimS said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, perhaps Liz Truss wasn't so bad after all.

Er, no. She is as bad as it gets.

Sunak’s premiership is proving a more chronic ailment to Truss’s acute attack, though. A sort of Long-Tory syndrome.

Sunak's doing nothing terribly wrong, but little right.

Truss? 'Let's crash the car!'

Braverman, Williamson, Zahawi and Raab all terribly wrong to many of us.

Williamson and Zahawi are just back-benchers under Sunak. So now is Raab.

TimS

ThomasNashe said:

Anabobazina said:

noneoftheabove said:

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Tory over performing areas probably midlands and poorer outer London/M25 fringe playing on ULEZ. Shafted elsewhere though and hard to see much recovery within 18 months.

The Ulez-X will have been in force over a year by the likely time of the GE. In all likelihood, people will have come to terms with it by then.

I’m far from sure that the Ulez play is the big vote winning the Tories think it is.

Yes, I’d like to see some polling on ULEZ.

Personally, I live in Zone 3 and am a big supporter of it. It’s the one thing Khan has done that I can get behind enthusiastically. That’s because it’s proven to reduce pollution and I’m very much in favour of cleaner air. But maybe I’m just unusual in that, and outer Londoners want to continue to live in an asthma inducing smog so long as it means they can keep their diesel Volvo Estate?

There was some polling in the affected areas a few weeks ago.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/ulez-poll-more-in-common-majority-londoners-support-political-leaning-tory-voters-sadiq-khan-b1082273.html

Bizarrely more popular in London than the rest of the country.

Pagan2

TimS said:

Pagan2 said:

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

No passport queues or foreign exchange costs when you go on holiday? Big plusses. Should boost the Rejoin vote.

I’m fresh back from the periodic Tory-sponsored micro-aggression that is the long slow all-passports queue and stamping at Copenhagen airport, so I endorse this message.

Remember the Banter Heuristic? The funniest/most satirical outcome is the one that happens?

Hard to beat the idea that a referendum vote to leave the EU ends up with the UK embedded in the EU in a way that wouldn't have happened had the UK voted for Dave's deal.

Not saying it will happen, or even that it should, but it would be satirical. I can imagine Gilbert and Sullivan thinking "No, that's too absurd. Let's finish with the House of Lords all marrying fairies instead."

Dave didn't have a deal because it wasn't written into treaties, ask denmark how the agreements with the eu went that were about the same standard as Daves so called deal...or blairs agreement to give up cap reform for half our rebate where the rebate got cut as agreed but when it came to cap reform the eu went...not in a treaty dont care

As it happens I was in Denmark today doing “workshops”. Nice country, long passport queues.

I will hit you with an alexei sayle quote here...."Anyone who uses the word 'workshop' and isn't in light engineering is a twat."

also st Pterry said

Terry Pratchett said of 'workshopping' that it was 'the means by which people who don't know anything get together to pool their ignorance'.

Anabobazina

ThomasNashe said:

Anabobazina said:

noneoftheabove said:

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Tory over performing areas probably midlands and poorer outer London/M25 fringe playing on ULEZ. Shafted elsewhere though and hard to see much recovery within 18 months.

The Ulez-X will have been in force over a year by the likely time of the GE. In all likelihood, people will have come to terms with it by then.

I’m far from sure that the Ulez play is the big vote winning the Tories think it is.

Yes, I’d like to see some polling on ULEZ.

Personally, I live in Zone 3 and am a big supporter of it. It’s the one thing Khan has done that I can get behind enthusiastically. That’s because it’s proven to reduce pollution and I’m very much in favour of cleaner air. But maybe I’m just unusual in that, and outer Londoners want to continue to live in an asthma inducing smog so long as it means they can keep their diesel Volvo
Estate?

The original scheme was delivered expertly and without any notable hitch. It’s Khan’s big thing and he deserves credit for it.

I

Sunil_Prasannan

ThomasNashe said:

Anabobazina said:

noneoftheabove said:

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Tory over performing areas probably midlands and poorer outer London/M25 fringe playing on ULEZ. Shafted elsewhere though and hard to see much recovery within 18 months.

The Ulez-X will have been in force over a year by the likely time of the GE. In all likelihood, people will have come to terms with it by then.

I’m far from sure that the Ulez play is the big vote winning the Tories think it is.

Yes, I’d like to see some polling on ULEZ.

Personally, I live in Zone 3 and am a big supporter of it. It’s the one thing Khan has done that I can get behind enthusiastically. That’s because it’s proven to reduce pollution and I’m very much in favour of cleaner air. But maybe I’m just unusual in that, and outer Londoners want to continue to live in an asthma inducing smog so long as it means they can keep their diesel Volvo Estate?

Close! We're in Zone 4, and we've got a diesel Volvo saloon :

ThomasNashe

TheScreamingEagles said:

American comedian Roseanne Barr has been criticised for a podcast interview in which she said that six million Jews 'should be killed.'

In a conversation with provocative comedian Theo Von, Barr, 70, said the Holocaust never happened, "but should have" as "Jews cause all the problems in the world."

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/disgraced-american-comedian-roseanne-barr-says-6-million-jews-should-die-7AKu8J3kY2CJkAShswdmGj

I mean I’m not generally in favour of cancelling people for what they say, but in what world could that possibly be remotely acceptable?

ThomasNashe

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ThomasNashe said:

Anabobazina said:

noneoftheabove said:

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Tory over performing areas probably midlands and poorer outer London/M25 fringe playing on ULEZ. Shafted elsewhere though and hard to see much recovery within 18 months.

The Ulez-X will have been in force over a year by the likely time of the GE. In all likelihood, people will have come to terms with it by then.

I’m far from sure that the Ulez play is the big vote winning the Tories think it is.

Yes, I’d like to see some polling on ULEZ.

Personally, I live in Zone 3 and am a big supporter of it. It’s the one thing Khan has done that I can get behind enthusiastically. That’s because it’s proven to reduce pollution and I’m very much in favour of cleaner air. But maybe I’m just unusual in that, and outer Londoners want to continue to live in an asthma inducing smog so long as it means they can keep their diesel Volvo Estate?

Close! We're in Zone 4, and we've got a diesel Volvo saloon :

So, does that mean you’re anti?

Anabobazina

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Anabobazina said:

Starmer's beery, curry-eating, illegal ice-cream selling past a big hit up north.

Try Keir Starmer's Newest Exciting New(er) Labour Flavour = Pale Ale & Korma Curry Ice Cream!

“So good the French made it illegal!”

Foxy

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

Still a big driver of the LD vote. Not that the LD plan is to Rejoin immediately, just the SM.

I wouldn’t think they would win any of these Red Wall seats, but in the Blue Wall Rejoin is a definite vote winner.

The Tories are peering into the abyss. Under a hundred seats is very possible on current polls.

ydoethur

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, perhaps Liz Truss wasn't so bad after all.

Er, no. She is as bad as it gets.

Clearly you've never had dealings with Susan Acland-Hood.

carnforth

TimS said:

noneoftheabove said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

No passport queues or foreign exchange costs when you go on holiday? Big plusses. Should boost the Rejoin vote.

Another tiny possible win for Sunak would be getting access to EU e-gates for UK citizens. Leavers will mock and deny its a problem but definitely a psychological reminder to vote the Tories out for many each time they queue.

More to the point a potential win for Starmer once in power. Ideally combined with a relaxation of the 90 day rule which the passport officer noted today I am getting close to breaching.

Once the EU introduces proper electronic controls, which they are planning to, the stamping goes away. So e-gates without stamping follow easily, under current rules. Though it would be up to each country. So airport queues will ease up. Dover may get worse, though.

Not sure we have much leverage on relaxing 90 days. We already offer 180 days to EU citizens. In fact, we offer 180 days to many countries, and most don't reciprocate. Canada and Mexico being two notable exceptions. But Australia don't, for example.

stodge

Anabobazina said:

HYUFD said:

On the redwall poll, to the tune of candle in the wind...

'Goodbye, World King. So they've screwed you after all

You had the nerve to champion Leave. While those around you backed Remain

They've crawled out of the woodwork. And conspired to topple you

For having the audacity. To get us out of the EU.

Though it seems to me you've lived your life. On a gamble and a whim.

But when push has come to shove. You found a way to win.

And that's why they resent you. Want to bury you for good.

Because you've always reached the parts. These losers never could.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12236039/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Elton-John-brings-curtain-Glastonbury.html

I was going to say that Littlejohn shouldn’t give up the day job.

But, on second thoughts, he should probably give that up as well.

Let's not forget it wasn't Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the Greens who toppled Johnson. It was Johnson himself aided and abetted by the Conservative Parliamentary Party.

Instead of trying to blame "Remainers", Littlejohn and those like him who bemoan the departure of Johnson should be blaming the Conservative Party.

geoffw

ThomasNashe said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

American comedian Roseanne Barr has been criticised for a podcast interview in which she said that six million Jews 'should be killed.'

In a conversation with provocative comedian Theo Von, Barr, 70, said the Holocaust never happened, "but should have" as "Jews cause all the problems in the world."

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/disgraced-american-comedian-roseanne-barr-says-6-million-jews-should-die-7AKu8J3kY2CJkAShswdmGj

I mean I’m not generally in favour of cancelling people for what they say, but in what world could that possibly be remotely acceptable?

Several places in the Middle East

Pagan2

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Pagan2 said:

Foxy said:

Pagan2 said:

FPT sorry missed this amongst the great fish finger debate

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Ghedebrav said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain?

Sunak fans please explain?


Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Red Wall VI (25 June):

Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 11 June


https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048

I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.

You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then

...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.

Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get

You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?

Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.

I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.

Yes I do for the two simple reasons they have pissed off people with 3 policy's

1) advocating a wealth tax which hurts those with mortgages
2) they are seen as rejoiners which annoys brexiters
3) They have suggested a 300£ a month to help out people with mortgages which annoys renters while not get mortgagers to vote for them as they know the chance of the LD's being in a position to deliver this is slightly less than a snowball surviving in hell

So when you exclude brexiters, mortgagees and renters how well do you think they will do?

But you seem not to notice that Brexit now polls worse than a turd in a swimming pool. Rejoin is a vote winner for the LDs.

I reckon on 25 seats after the GE.

Because those polls never point out the reality, I will start taking them seriously when they ask do you support rejoining the eu if it means joining the euro, schengen and having no opt outs.

Well that would be better than the half-arsed membership we had prior to Brexit.

I make no judgement on whether it would be better. My point was that if it is pointed out the enthusiam for rejoin would be substantially less

Still a big driver of the LD vote. Not that the LD plan is to Rejoin immediately, just the SM.

I wouldn’t think they would win any of these Red Wall seats, but in the Blue Wall Rejoin is a definite vote winner.

The Tories are peering into the abyss. Under a hundred seats is very possible on current polls.

Well we will see wont we. I really doubt the ld's will make many more seats than they have. Time will tell us who is right

noneoftheabove

ThomasNashe said:

Anabobazina said:

noneoftheabove said:

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Tory over performing areas probably midlands and poorer outer London/M25 fringe playing on ULEZ. Shafted elsewhere though and hard to see much recovery within 18 months.

The Ulez-X will have been in force over a year by the likely time of the GE. In all likelihood, people will have come to terms with it by then.

I’m far from sure that the Ulez play is the big vote winning the Tories think it is.

Yes, I’d like to see some polling on ULEZ.

Personally, I live in Zone 3 and am a big supporter of it. It’s the one thing Khan has done that I can get behind enthusiastically. That’s because it’s proven to reduce pollution and I’m very much in favour of cleaner air. But maybe I’m just unusual in that, and outer Londoners want to continue to live in an asthma inducing smog so long as it means they can keep their diesel Volvo Estate?

Voting doesn't work like that though. It is a good policy (albeit could have been implemented better and more gently) and one many people are (marginally) in favour of and will see (marginal benefits). A small minority will be paying many thousands for a replacement car, another minority will be paying regular charges, and a third minority will pick up unexpected fines as they were unaware, forgot about it or got lost.

Out of the many group, very few people are going to be switching their votes to Labour based on slightly cleaner air. A lot of the people passionate about that subject will vote Green (or for a local independent or LD) anyway.

Out of the smaller groups, a much higher percentage will switch votes because they feel unfairly picked on or its hurt them significantly economically.

It is very similar to taxing private schools. Most people will be in favour, but very few will switch to Labour because of the policy, but Labour will definitely lose votes from some of those who pay fees and don't want them taxed.

ThomasNashe

TimS said:

ThomasNashe said:

Anabobazina said:

noneoftheabove said:

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Tory over performing areas probably midlands and poorer outer London/M25 fringe playing on ULEZ. Shafted elsewhere though and hard to see much recovery within 18 months.

The Ulez-X will have been in force over a year by the likely time of the GE. In all likelihood, people will have come to terms with it by then.

I’m far from sure that the Ulez play is the big vote winning the Tories think it is.

Yes, I’d like to see some polling on ULEZ.

Personally, I live in Zone 3 and am a big supporter of it. It’s the one thing Khan has done that I can get behind enthusiastically. That’s because it’s proven to reduce pollution and I’m very much in favour of cleaner air. But maybe I’m just unusual in that, and outer Londoners want to continue to live in an asthma inducing smog so long as it means they can keep their diesel Volvo Estate?

There was some polling in the affected areas a few weeks ago.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/ulez-poll-more-in-common-majority-londoners-support-political-leaning-tory-voters-sadiq-khan-b1082273.html

Bizarrely more popular in London than the rest of the country.

That doesn’t strike me as bizarre at all, given that it’s those who live in London who will benefit most from the cleaner air. And let’s not beat about the bush - that means live longer and be less prone to chronic disease.

TheScreamingEagles

ThomasNashe said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

American comedian Roseanne Barr has been criticised for a podcast interview in which she said that six million Jews 'should be killed.'

In a conversation with provocative comedian Theo Von, Barr, 70, said the Holocaust never happened, "but should have" as "Jews cause all the problems in the world."

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/disgraced-american-comedian-roseanne-barr-says-6-million-jews-should-die-7AKu8J3kY2CJkAShswdmGj

I mean I’m not generally in favour of cancelling people for what they say, but in what world could that possibly be remotely acceptable?

America.

Remember Trump fans chant 'Jews will not replace us.'

Stuartinromford

TimS said:

ThomasNashe said:

Anabobazina said:

noneoftheabove said:

Clutch_Brompton said:

I wouldn't have thought the Cons have given up on Grimsby or Stockton South yet. However, the likely battleground at the GE will be far far beyond most of these forty constituencies. Little in politics is certain but that is about as close to it as you can get!

Tory over performing areas probably midlands and poorer outer London/M25 fringe playing on ULEZ. Shafted elsewhere though and hard to see much recovery within 18 months.

The Ulez-X will have been in force over a year by the likely time of the GE. In all likelihood, people will have come to terms with it by then.

I’m far from sure that the Ulez play is the big vote winning the Tories think it is.

Yes, I’d like to see some polling on ULEZ.

Personally, I live in Zone 3 and am a big supporter of it. It’s the one thing Khan has done that I can get behind enthusiastically. That’s because it’s proven to reduce pollution and I’m very much in favour of cleaner air. But maybe I’m just unusual in that, and outer Londoners want to continue to live in an asthma inducing smog so long as it means they can keep their diesel Volvo Estate?

There was some polling in the affected areas a few weeks ago.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/ulez-poll-more-in-common-majority-londoners-support-political-leaning-tory-voters-sadiq-khan-b1082273.html

Bizarrely more popular in London than the rest of the country.

Not sure it's that bizarre. The general pattern with War On Cars stuff is that the prospect tends to be more daunting than the reality. (See also Low Traffic Neighbourhoods; London Conservatives have hitched their wagon to that cause as well, and it has done them no good whatsoever.)

ULEZ fear might play for the Conservatives in Uxbridge next month, but I doubt that it will harm Sadiq next spring.

noneoftheabove

Omnium said:

noneoftheabove said:

Omnium said:

TimS said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, perhaps Liz Truss wasn't so bad after all.

Er, no. She is as bad as it gets.

Sunak’s premiership is proving a more chronic ailment to Truss’s acute attack, though. A sort of Long-Tory syndrome.

Sunak's doing nothing terribly wrong, but little right.

Truss? 'Let's crash the car!'

Braverman, Williamson, Zahawi and Raab all terribly wrong to many of us.

Williamson and Zahawi are just back-benchers under Sunak. So now is Raab.

Yes but he appointed them, mistake number 1, and was weak in discipling them, bigger mistake number 2.