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LAB running neck and neck with the SNP in Scotland – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited June 2023 in General
LAB running neck and neck with the SNP in Scotland – politicalbetting.com

Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:LAB: 34% (+3)SNP: 34% (-5)CON: 18% (-1)LDM: 7% (+2)Via @PanelbaseMD, 12-15 Jun.Changes w/ 28-30 Mar.

Read the full story here

Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,498
    edited June 2023
    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Second like England.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,750
    Somehow I read third-party status as the Lib Dems contracting out their politics to an external organisation. Didn't sound like the worst idea in the world, tbh.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    It may well be that nothing comes of these police investigations and the SNP stage a recovery .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,958

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    The image of Rishi looks a bit odd. His mouth and teeth aren't right.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Labour largest party in Scotland
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,498
    Andy_JS said:

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    The image of Rishi looks a bit odd. His mouth and teeth aren't right.
    My God man! What sort of demented pervert looks at Rishi in that picture?

    Any red-blooded Englishman should be concentrating on the BBC B!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited June 2023
    Oh dear . Video released of conservatives partying, having what looks to be loads of fun whilst gran was wired upto a ventilator .

    Admittedly people are probably bored to tears of hearing about partygate but still not a good look.

    Two of those seen partying were awarded honours by the fat lying oaf .
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,352

    Andy_JS said:

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    The image of Rishi looks a bit odd. His mouth and teeth aren't right.
    My God man! What sort of demented pervert looks at Rishi in that picture?

    Any red-blooded Englishman should be concentrating on the BBC B!
    Tory politician though. Won't be long before he's bashing the BBC.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    On topic, we should have listened to the Scotch experts.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,144
    edited June 2023
    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,028

    Andy_JS said:

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    The image of Rishi looks a bit odd. His mouth and teeth aren't right.
    My God man! What sort of demented pervert looks at Rishi in that picture?

    Any red-blooded Englishman should be concentrating on the BBC B!
    `10 PRINT "WHOARRRRR "; : GOTO 10`
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,028
    FPT (sorry - posted while I was reading and didn't spot the new thread)
    ohnotnow said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Given recent events having 44% of Scots still backing independence and a plurality wanting a referendum inside 10 years isn't that great.

    Better than it was though.

    Yes, the reason I've hoied the previous figures on there is because I've got a pet theory that things won't be as bad for the SNP in an election as the polling is showing. The indy/union margin is reasonably stable. There was a large spike for YES in the immediate aftermath of Truss, but we're back to YES being a little bit down on most of the rest of 2022. NO is ahead, let's say about 5 points with the unknowns in place, or about 6 points if you remove the unknowns.

    The question is, where do those voters go come an election? They might stay at home. They might drift towards Green//Alba. They might vote for unionist parties (indy isn't the only thing on people's minds). But I think some of the SNP support that's drained will come back if they do think about indy and they don't have faith in Green/Alba to get anywhere in a FPTP election.

    A lot could depend on how much the unionist parties allow/push focus on constitutional matters.

    Of course, Labour's revival hurts the SNP disproportionately more than the Con revival a few years ago, so a slight downtick in SNP support will count more in the central belt and tip a few constituencies. But I think I'd be tempted to back SNP largest party at even shortish prices. Depending on what happens with legal cases!
    Your last sentence is important here. Unfortunately pollsters can't ask questions such as "Do you think Nicola Sturgeon will go to jail?", and even less can they ask "Do you think she has committed any money-related crimes?" But these are the kinds of question that are in a lot of voters' conversations in Scotland right now. A standard SNP strategy would be to blame the troubles all on England, Westminster, the London media, dirty foreigners who don't know a kilt from a sporran but who love to talk Scotland down, etc., but on these particular topics of interest that has become a bit difficult. So they can faff and act like lame ducks and that's about it.
    It's not really been the SNP way under Sturgeon to blame things on "dirty foreigners", despite what some in the unionist camp want to think. I don't imaging Yousaf will be indulging in that kind of thing either.

    The other straw the SNP can cling to is Brexit. I don't know how much it'll land with the electorate, but for example today's £43 consignment tax and the effect on small businesses is a good angle to point out the practical effects of something that's being done to Scotland despite the Scotland Remain vote. It could land well if we see businesses folding as a result, and Labour aren't in a strong position on that.

    The SNP position will have to be about practical issues like that for them to have a comeback, and that will probably need the legal problems to be behind them for them to get that focus. If there are vindications all around on the legal front and the SNP campaign smart, it could be good news. If there are convictions and they fanny about with abstract constitutional bollocks, then it could go very badly indeed for them.
    The SNP position should be about practical issues. But will that be drowned out by flag waving and 'because reasons'? They made an utter ballsup of the #indyref1 campaign and seem to have spent the 10yrs since giving zero thought to any of the questions raised (whether about the campaign or concrete issues).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246
    edited June 2023

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    The Economist doesn't seem have any real ideas how the UK can take a lead in AI. Regulation seems to be the main one, but AI regulation is largely data regulation and the UK isn't in a strong position on that, particularly since Brexit.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,028
    Pro_Rata said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    The image of Rishi looks a bit odd. His mouth and teeth aren't right.
    My God man! What sort of demented pervert looks at Rishi in that picture?

    Any red-blooded Englishman should be concentrating on the BBC B!
    Tory politician though. Won't be long before he's bashing the BBC.
    'Bashing the BBC' is an entire category on certain adult streaming sites.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    This poll allows us to drop the Labour percentage down, so a 7-8 point lead surely now means a majority
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,028
    FF43 said:

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    The Economist doesn't seem have any real ideas how the UK can take a lead in AI. Regulation seems to be the main one, but AI regulation is largely data regulation and the UK isn't in a strong position on that, particularly since Brexit.
    We can take a lead just by virtue of being British. Like we have in other fields such as... that one. And that other one.

    :: points vaguely ::
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    nico679 said:

    It may well be that nothing comes of these police investigations and the SNP stage a recovery .

    If nothing comes of them, which is likelier - recovery, or cries of coverup?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    It may well be that nothing comes of these police investigations and the SNP stage a recovery .

    If nothing comes of them, which is likelier - recovery, or cries of coverup?
    One way or another it is past time for charges or closure of the file. I really can’t imagine what the police are still investigating.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Crossover will occur imminently...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    Not sure Britain is going to be an AI superpower with a BBC micro.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    It may well be that nothing comes of these police investigations and the SNP stage a recovery .

    If nothing comes of them, which is likelier - recovery, or cries of coverup?
    One way or another it is past time for charges or closure of the file. I really can’t imagine what the police are still investigating.
    They may be investigating just how deep the shit is they're in and what the least damaging way out would be.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1670138635541200896

    They knew. They just didn't care.

    Get the Tories out, I couldn't visit my uncle as he lay dying in a hospital bed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1670138635541200896

    They knew. They just didn't care.

    Get the Tories out, I couldn't visit my uncle as he lay dying in a hospital bed.

    Most damaging one, from that point of view?

    Johnson partied while the Queen buried the Duke of Edinburgh - seated alone.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1670008124537700356/photo/1

    The first MP to tell us I think that the Red Wall is lost.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    It may well be that nothing comes of these police investigations and the SNP stage a recovery .

    If nothing comes of them, which is likelier - recovery, or cries of coverup?
    One way or another it is past time for charges or closure of the file. I really can’t imagine what the police are still investigating.
    They may be investigating just how deep the shit is they're in and what the least damaging way out would be.
    They’ll just blame the current Chief Constable Livingston who is already on his way out.

    Police are still superb at finding excuses for incompetence. It will be the last skill to go.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,750

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    Not sure Britain is going to be an AI superpower with a BBC micro.
    On the plus side, the worst our version of Skynet will be able to do is play Elite better than us.
  • Panelbase have a good record in Scotland but none the less I'd need to see further polls confirming this. If it holds up this is very significant. But that is still an if.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    EXCL - Sir Keir Starmer marks Armed Forces week with a pledge to create a new 'Squaddies Czar' to represent our brave troops

    Keir's uncle served aboard HMS Antelope in the Falklands. The ship sank at sea - luckily his uncle survived

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1670155527702077444

    Interesting approach from our next PM
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Am I the only one to find Netflix overwhelming?

    Very occasionally I go on there an am bombarded with so many trailers, icons and options for new series, films and dramas that it's like attending Thorpe Park on an August summer Saturday, and all I want to do is get out.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Since Keir Starmer is to blame for everything Corbyn has done, Rishi Sunak should apologise for his lot dancing through lockdown on the day they told us Christmas was cancelled.

    Scumbag.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,888

    Panelbase have a good record in Scotland but none the less I'd need to see further polls confirming this. If it holds up this is very significant. But that is still an if.

    There are no polls that don't need further polls confirming them. That is the nature of the beast. That's because no poll can be verified except by further polls. Except John Curtice's poll on election day - the only one that can actually be verified (he's always right) immediately.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    They don't care about people like me. They do literally anything to tell me I am woke, inept and dumb. You see it here from the comments daily.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,498
    ohnotnow said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    The image of Rishi looks a bit odd. His mouth and teeth aren't right.
    My God man! What sort of demented pervert looks at Rishi in that picture?

    Any red-blooded Englishman should be concentrating on the BBC B!
    `10 PRINT "WHOARRRRR "; : GOTO 10`
    Now do that in 6502 assembler. :)

    (I can't any more, at least in my head...)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,498

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    Not sure Britain is going to be an AI superpower with a BBC micro.
    My own view is that a 'true' AI/AGI will come from a device about as small as that; or at least within an order of magnitude. Instead of the mimicking ML approach of ChatGPT etc.

    Basically; it will require a revolution in tech, not an evolution and throwing more processor power and stolen data at it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,914
    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1670138635541200896

    They knew. They just didn't care.

    Get the Tories out, I couldn't visit my uncle as he lay dying in a hospital bed.

    Most damaging one, from that point of view?

    Johnson partied while the Queen buried the Duke of Edinburgh - seated alone.
    It wasn't a party it was a work event, just with alcohol, fornication and vomit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    Panelbase have a good record in Scotland but none the less I'd need to see further polls confirming this. If it holds up this is very significant. But that is still an if.

    This is the first poll for a little while that shows the SNP vote falling. Most seem to have indicated that they had stabilised a bit. May be the Nicola effect.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790
    Just dropping by to say, if you haven't watched The Gallows Pole,.watch it. It's going to win everything at the BAFTAs. If they'd made it for the big screen (which they 100% should have) it would have swept the Oscars too.
    Script, direction, cinematography, sound, music, lead actor, lead actress, supporting actor/actress, everything..
    It looks like a painting, reads like Shakespeare, sounds like Bellowhead crossed with Sigur Ros.
    The only.problem is going to be finding family-friendly clips for primetime TV in the awards.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,491

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    The voters won’t switch their blame from the Tories to Labour the instant Starmer enters No. 10. The previous lot will continue to carry most of the blame for several years.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,477

    Just dropping by to say, if you haven't watched The Gallows Pole,.watch it. It's going to win everything at the BAFTAs. If they'd made it for the big screen (which they 100% should have) it would have swept the Oscars too.
    Script, direction, cinematography, sound, music, lead actor, lead actress, supporting actor/actress, everything..
    It looks like a painting, reads like Shakespeare, sounds like Bellowhead crossed with Sigur Ros.
    The only.problem is going to be finding family-friendly clips for primetime TV in the awards.

    Agree, it's brilliant. Left me wanting a lot more of it.
  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173
    Somerton and Frome by-election on the way.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1670138635541200896

    They knew. They just didn't care.

    Get the Tories out, I couldn't visit my uncle as he lay dying in a hospital bed.

    Most damaging one, from that point of view?

    Johnson partied while the Queen buried the Duke of Edinburgh - seated alone.
    To be scrupulous about the evidence, Johnson was at chequers that night and the party was at 10 DS.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,165
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    It may well be that nothing comes of these police investigations and the SNP stage a recovery .

    If nothing comes of them, which is likelier - recovery, or cries of coverup?
    One way or another it is past time for charges or closure of the file. I really can’t imagine what the police are still investigating.
    If you believe some people presumably the cops will soon be bawsdeep in investigating the corrupt SNP leadership election and the collusion of MiVoice in said corruption.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,136

    EXCL - Sir Keir Starmer marks Armed Forces week with a pledge to create a new 'Squaddies Czar' to represent our brave troops

    Keir's uncle served aboard HMS Antelope in the Falklands. The ship sank at sea - luckily his uncle survived

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1670155527702077444

    Interesting approach from our next PM

    The ultimate technocrat - whatever the problem, fiddling with governmental structures will solve it. Or at least start to solve it. Or generate a couple of positive headlines. Or something.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,165

    On topic, we should have listened to the Scotch experts.

    The ones that predicted 37 of the last 0 SNP demises? Go for it!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    I honestly couldn't give a flying fuck if inflation is at 5% rather than 4% at year end. We have a very weird situation, where every sign that the economy is not in recession is treated as bad news.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,992

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    Wasn't this the policy followed when we tried to align with the Deutsche Mark in the ERM in the 80s? We had to squeeze the inflation out of our economy (so we could be as economically strong as the (then) West Germans) and the way to do it was with ever rising interest rates.

    The consequences were a house price crash and 15% rates by 1992 (and an effective devaluation as we crashed out of the ERM).

    I'm not suggesting that's going to happen and we're a long way from that. We aren't used to interest rates being used as a part of monetary policy - indeed, we're not really used to a monetary policy at all.

    I'm looking at the debt interest repayments however and the impact of higher rates on those which in turn mean we either have to cut spending further or raise taxes.
  • Somerton and Frome looks tricky for the Cons if the rumoured resignation is true. Would that be Johnson related or simply owing to Warburton's numerous 'issues'?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,159
    Another Saturday Rawnsley:

    He greeted their findings with another of his toddler tantrums, screaming about “the final knife-thrust” and “a dreadful day for MPs and for democracy”. To the contrary, this has been one of the brighter moments in the recent history of our democracy. In politics, the media and many other parts of the public square, we are in the midst of a titanic struggle. On the one side are bad actors who seek to advance themselves and their causes by peddling misinformation, mendacity and fakery. Resisting them are those who prize facts, veracity and rules. It was critical that the defenders of integrity in public life prevailed over the forces of darkness.

    In future, prime ministers and ministers tempted to lie their way out of trouble will dwell upon the fate of Mr Johnson and think again. At least we must very much hope so.

    The committee has served the country well. Now it is over to MPs as a body to assert that the truth matters and the rules underpinning our democracy must be respected.

    Some Tories do grasp the magnitude of what is at stake here. Some also feel a prick of shame about the devil’s bargain their party struck when it gave the job of prime minister to someone so utterly unfit for the job. Then there’s a whole lot of other Conservative MPs who are torn between fear of blowback from Johnson-sympathetic Tory activists in their constituencies if they ratify the report and brickbats from opponents and disapproval from voters if they don’t disown him.

    Allies of the Tory leader say that he has only contempt for Mr Johnson and hopes that the other man is now history, but he doesn’t want to “poke the beast”. Mr Sunak is deluding himself if he thinks there is any peace to be had.

    Number 10 needs to organise a search party to find a spine for the prime minister.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    Not sure Britain is going to be an AI superpower with a BBC micro.
    Why not? The current Brexiter mythos is to point at stuff from the 1950s and say how wonderful it was then, none of this woke stuff, Empire still there. So a BBC micro would be positively modern.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    The voters won’t switch their blame from the Tories to Labour the instant Starmer enters No. 10. The previous lot will continue to carry most of the blame for several years.
    Economic crises can be politically unforgiving, particularly if the new administration wants to borrow, tax and spend even more.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    It may well be that nothing comes of these police investigations and the SNP stage a recovery .

    If nothing comes of them, which is likelier - recovery, or cries of coverup?
    One way or another it is past time for charges or closure of the file. I really can’t imagine what the police are still investigating.
    If you believe some people presumably the cops will soon be bawsdeep in investigating the corrupt SNP leadership election and the collusion of MiVoice in said corruption.
    Reportedly Plod Scotland has already spent more than the maximum possible sum in contention.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    stodge said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    Wasn't this the policy followed when we tried to align with the Deutsche Mark in the ERM in the 80s? We had to squeeze the inflation out of our economy (so we could be as economically strong as the (then) West Germans) and the way to do it was with ever rising interest rates.

    The consequences were a house price crash and 15% rates by 1992 (and an effective devaluation as we crashed out of the ERM).

    I'm not suggesting that's going to happen and we're a long way from that. We aren't used to interest rates being used as a part of monetary policy - indeed, we're not really used to a monetary policy at all.

    I'm looking at the debt interest repayments however and the impact of higher rates on those which in turn mean we either have to cut spending further or raise taxes.
    I'm seeing a lot of articles criticising Andrew Bailey at the moment, from all quarters.

    But I'm not seeing any other alternatives being suggested except to keep on raising interest rates until something breaks.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    interesting poll. Surely we must be getting close to the point where SKS can risk taking off the shackles and revealing himself to be the decent human being most of us think he is
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Sean_F said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    I honestly couldn't give a flying fuck if inflation is at 5% rather than 4% at year end. We have a very weird situation, where every sign that the economy is not in recession is treated as bad news.
    As the 2-year fixes that were taken out in 2021 come to expire later this year hundreds of thousands of people are going to be in very dire straits. This will continue.

    This is a very slow strategy to a lingering death. It could take years to pay off, and the political fallout could be immense.

    I don't think it's very intelligent - it strikes me as using crude 30-year old tools and rhetoric to combat a 21st Century economic problem.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,067
    DavidL said:

    Panelbase have a good record in Scotland but none the less I'd need to see further polls confirming this. If it holds up this is very significant. But that is still an if.

    This is the first poll for a little while that shows the SNP vote falling. Most seem to have indicated that they had stabilised a bit. May be the Nicola effect.
    Labour will pick up seats from the SNP.
    Other than that, there are too many uncertainties. Will Sturgeon, Murrell and Beattie be charged? If so, when will it reach court? Will Yousaf survive? Will the Greens suffer from the incompetence of their ministers? Will disillusioned independence supporters stay with the SNP, vote for another party, or stay at home? Will Alba put up candidates, and if so, how many votes will they get? Will SNP supporters vote Labour to help ensure the Tories are defeated?
    What is needed is a series of comprehensive opinion polls asking these questions. Will anyone commission them?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,033
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    It may well be that nothing comes of these police investigations and the SNP stage a recovery .

    If nothing comes of them, which is likelier - recovery, or cries of coverup?
    One way or another it is past time for charges or closure of the file. I really can’t imagine what the police are still investigating.
    If you believe some people presumably the cops will soon be bawsdeep in investigating the corrupt SNP leadership election and the collusion of MiVoice in said corruption.
    Reportedly Plod Scotland has already spent more than the maximum possible sum in contention.
    Ah - no need to investigate then. 😂

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Carnyx said:

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    Not sure Britain is going to be an AI superpower with a BBC micro.
    Why not? The current Brexiter mythos is to point at stuff from the 1950s and say how wonderful it was then, none of this woke stuff, Empire still there. So a BBC micro would be positively modern.
    Yawn.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Under 40 reporting for duty, Tories hate me despite owning a house.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,491

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    The voters won’t switch their blame from the Tories to Labour the instant Starmer enters No. 10. The previous lot will continue to carry most of the blame for several years.
    Economic crises can be politically unforgiving, particularly if the new administration wants to borrow, tax and spend even more.
    Cameron inherited a mess in 2010 and the voters didn’t blame him. Thatcher inherited problems and the voters didn’t blame her. Starmer will get the benefit of the doubt too.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,069
    edited June 2023
    Nouveau fil
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    @TelePolitics
    24s
    🔵 A Conservative KC in the running to be the party’s nominee for London mayor has revealed he is a “passionate Remainer”

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1670168778624122880
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,352
    Two snippets, probably touched on:

    Stalking Gavin Williamson. Really?

    BBC News - Man denies impersonating police officer and stalking MP Sir Gavin Williamson
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65939820

    Heard this dude on PM a couple of months back. Only a few minutes of interview to base an opinion on, but I warmed to him:

    BBC News - Festus Akinbusoye becomes Tory MP candidate for Dorries' seat
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-65925717
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    The voters won’t switch their blame from the Tories to Labour the instant Starmer enters No. 10. The previous lot will continue to carry most of the blame for several years.
    Economic crises can be politically unforgiving, particularly if the new administration wants to borrow, tax and spend even more.
    Cameron inherited a mess in 2010 and the voters didn’t blame him. Thatcher inherited problems and the voters didn’t blame her. Starmer will get the benefit of the doubt too.
    That's simply an assertion: there's no cast iron law that validates that. And you forget both Cameron and Thatcher had a torrid time inside 24 months of taking office.

    We could be entering another period like the 1970s, where voters continually switch parties in a frustrated search for economic answers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Sean_F said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    I honestly couldn't give a flying fuck if inflation is at 5% rather than 4% at year end. We have a very weird situation, where every sign that the economy is not in recession is treated as bad news.
    As the 2-year fixes that were taken out in 2021 come to expire later this year hundreds of thousands of people are going to be in very dire straits. This will continue.

    This is a very slow strategy to a lingering death. It could take years to pay off, and the political fallout could be immense.

    I don't think it's very intelligent - it strikes me as using crude 30-year old tools and rhetoric to combat a 21st Century economic problem.
    I well remember "if it isn't hurting, it isn't working.", when my own mortgage rate hit 15.7%.

    Of course, the people advocating such pain want it to be inflicted upon other people rather than upon themselves.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    I honestly couldn't give a flying fuck if inflation is at 5% rather than 4% at year end. We have a very weird situation, where every sign that the economy is not in recession is treated as bad news.
    As the 2-year fixes that were taken out in 2021 come to expire later this year hundreds of thousands of people are going to be in very dire straits. This will continue.

    This is a very slow strategy to a lingering death. It could take years to pay off, and the political fallout could be immense.

    I don't think it's very intelligent - it strikes me as using crude 30-year old tools and rhetoric to combat a 21st Century economic problem.
    I well remember "if it isn't hurting, it isn't working.", when my own mortgage rate hit 15.7%.

    Of course, the people advocating such pain want it to be inflicted upon other people rather than upon themselves.
    They probably enjoy it.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,920
    OldBasing said:

    Somerton and Frome by-election on the way.

    Not before time
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,352
    And NEW THREAD at under 100 comments.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,491

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    The voters won’t switch their blame from the Tories to Labour the instant Starmer enters No. 10. The previous lot will continue to carry most of the blame for several years.
    Economic crises can be politically unforgiving, particularly if the new administration wants to borrow, tax and spend even more.
    Cameron inherited a mess in 2010 and the voters didn’t blame him. Thatcher inherited problems and the voters didn’t blame her. Starmer will get the benefit of the doubt too.
    That's simply an assertion: there's no cast iron law that validates that. And you forget both Cameron and Thatcher had a torrid time inside 24 months of taking office.

    We could be entering another period like the 1970s, where voters continually switch parties in a frustrated search for economic answers.
    It is not a cast iron law, no. I’m not claiming it is. I offer it as a prediction on a website where we sometimes talk about political betting.
  • ohnotnow said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    The image of Rishi looks a bit odd. His mouth and teeth aren't right.
    My God man! What sort of demented pervert looks at Rishi in that picture?

    Any red-blooded Englishman should be concentrating on the BBC B!
    `10 PRINT "WHOARRRRR "; : GOTO 10`
    Now do that in 6502 assembler. :)

    (I can't any more, at least in my head...)
    Here you go. Always like to help.

    begin:
    ldx #$00 ;

    loop:
    lda message,x
    beq begin
    jsr $ffd2
    inx
    jmp loop

    message:
    .byte $57, $48, $4F, $41, $52, $52, $52, $52, $52, $20
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    We import a lot of our food. We are very reliant on natural gas. We have a tight labour market. The bank could have hiked rates quicker but we ought to think about a few fundamentals.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,144

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    The voters won’t switch their blame from the Tories to Labour the instant Starmer enters No. 10. The previous lot will continue to carry most of the blame for several years.
    Economic crises can be politically unforgiving, particularly if the new administration wants to borrow, tax and spend even more.
    Cameron inherited a mess in 2010 and the voters didn’t blame him. Thatcher inherited problems and the voters didn’t blame her. Starmer will get the benefit of the doubt too.
    That's simply an assertion: there's no cast iron law that validates that. And you forget both Cameron and Thatcher had a torrid time inside 24 months of taking office.

    We could be entering another period like the 1970s, where voters continually switch parties in a frustrated search for economic answers.
    There has been only one single parliament government in a half century. The public gives the government the benefit of the doubt. The Tories will be back in a decade or so.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,028

    ohnotnow said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The latest Economist cover stirs me in unusual ways.

    Should be a Cub monitor though... ;)

    https://twitter.com/colinhoad/status/1669831852734001154/photo/1

    Edit: and first. Unlike the SNP in Scotland.

    The image of Rishi looks a bit odd. His mouth and teeth aren't right.
    My God man! What sort of demented pervert looks at Rishi in that picture?

    Any red-blooded Englishman should be concentrating on the BBC B!
    `10 PRINT "WHOARRRRR "; : GOTO 10`
    Now do that in 6502 assembler. :)

    (I can't any more, at least in my head...)
    M68000 assembler I could do - never did 6502 asm :-)

    Tragically, I can still remember that `moveq.w 0,d0` was quicker than `clr.w d0`. I remember being well chuffed with my 'clear screen jumptable' code in about 1988.

    And that the base address of the C64 SID chip was 54272. Important stuff that the current snowflake generation seems woefully unaware of...
This discussion has been closed.