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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s ComRes local elections poll is based on 56pc saying
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s ComRes local elections poll is based on 56pc saying they are certain to vote with a MALE:FEMALE ratio of 6:4
On a night of many polls perhaps the most interesting and relevant to tomorrow’s local elections is the above one from ComRes online which was funded by the Coalition for Marriage – the body that’s been campaigning against the gay marriage proposals.
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No UKIP candidate in my area though, have now had two libdem and one Tory leaflet. Libdems get my vote, though not many others it seems.
http://m.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/09/tin-foil-hats-actually-make-it-easier-for-the-government-to-track-your-thoughts/262998/
Hartlepool's mayor (infamously 'H'angus the Monkey') is stepping down soon after 11 years and three election victories. The mayoralty role is being abolished.
Considering he was a joke candidate with (afaict) little previous experience, has his tenure proved positive or negative for the people of Hartlepool? How has the fact he was unconnected with politics before becoming mayor helped or hindered him?
And where does this leaves Labour's great mayoralty plans?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-22297425
Money in euros Fox. Really. As soon as next year!
In continued absence of any information whatsoever, I'm still torn between LD and Lab. Wife is seriously thinking about Green.
Who knows, Child Benefit for millionaires might be next...
Issues facing Britain: 'Immigration & Asylum':
Con: 66
Lab: 46
Lib Dem: 41
UKIP: 84
Issues facing me/my family: 'Immigration & Asylum (rank)
Con: 22 (5th)
Lab: 12 (7th)
LibDem: 11 (=9th)
UKIP: 42 (=3rd)
At the risk of stating the obvious, such an outcome would be bad news for the big three. Labour would mostly regain its losses of four years ago, but UKIP would likely steal working class divisions in Staffordshire, Kent, Norfolk, Essex, Hertfordshire that went from Lab to Con in 2009, and which Labour would expect to regain. And, the media narrative would focus on UKIP, not Labour.
The Conservatives would be sure to lose seats to UKIP, putting more pressure on Cameron, and almost certainly leading to further defections of members to UKIP, and maybe MP's as well. UKIP's poll rating would edge closer to the Conservatives'.
As for the Lib Dems, a complete horror story. There'd be a serious chance of finishing fourth in terms of seats, as well as votes.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bac05656-b1ba-11e2-b324-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2S1G7EDuM
“I think a lot of people are going to vote Ukip,” says Marianne Haligan, a postwoman, who steps off the bus straight into the media circus around Mr Farage. Admitting she is an undecided voter, she adds: “It’s this business of immigration. People have been worried about it for years.”
"Does the Coalition Government's plan to legalise same-sex marriage make you more or less likely to vote for each of these parties in next week's local elections?
More/No diff/Less likely to vote for:
Con: 7/64/23
Lab: 6/71/17
Lib Dem: 4/67/23
UKIP: 10/70/12
So there is small a group of (older) people unhappy with gay marriage - and they're not just Tories.....
Yet Lib Dems seem to be expecting a good set of results whereas most Conservative activists expect large losses circa 300+. Friday will be a very interesting day.
BRITAIN will be the world’s most ethnically diverse Western nation after 2050, a bombshell study has found.
A massive influx of immigrants has given the UK the fastest-rising percentage of ethnic minority and foreign-born populations.
The report’s author says foreigners and non-whites living here will DOUBLE by 2040 — to make up a third of the UK.
He has even controversially claimed white Brits will be a MINORITY by 2066.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4909876/White-Britons-minority-by-2066-claim.html#ixzz2S1LavVbz
22% would surely put UKIP in first place in some Counties.
The evens at Paddy power that was around yesterday morning has now moved to 1/10 for over 50 seats.
https://sb.ladbrokes.com/Ladbrokes/mobwebapp/entryPoint.html?deepLinkCommandName=proxyDataBrowsing&locale=en_GB&id=SPORTS&isLive=false&level=Category&locale=en_GB#4
Get on...
My guess for the number of UKIP seats taken: 117±. And no, I'm not betting.
I've got to agree that 56% seems unlikely for locals. But if that's not the case, who'd be hit by lower turnout?
I'd be surprised if this is the case, based on general polling and mood music, but surely the Lib Dems and Conservatives (in that order) would benefit? People saying they're certain to vote for those parties especially (rather than a convenient but shallow protest party, such as Labour) must be likelier to actually mean it.
Incidentally, my early review of the first part of the season is up here: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/2013-early-season-review.html
it's ok in 2066 we'll have some Labourite telling us how the party are now going to listen more and Andy dumbass Burnham telling us he's off to learn the lessons.
Many of my fellow bus pass users would happily (well fairly happily) pay £10 a year for their passes. Whether that would cover the admin costs, I don't know.
" try everything once except incest and morris dancing"
I suspect he was simply embarrassed that his own wiffle stick, if waved around in public, would impress no-one.
Maybe a punt on 'more than five MPs'? What odds could I get?
Today to Simon Hughes : "There are wards in Liverpool where the Lib Dems aren't standing"
Hughes: "There aren't elections in Liverpool"
Not an arb though, is it, Timmo?
UKIP have a number of seats already, so <50 TOTAL is very unlikely. Ladbrokes' odds are for number of gains.
The 15/8 > 100 looks decent value to me. I appreciate that they are likely to do well without winning seats in many places, but still think 100 plus is very doable.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7372?utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer:+stephentall+on+twitter&buffer_share=685f3
By my estimates it would produce getting on for 500 Conservative losses and 250 UKIP gains, if it is giving an accurate picture… and local election predictions are not something that there is much track record for. We shall see
"With friends like Mary Riddel - does rEd need enemies ?"
I couldn't agree less. It's hagiography at its finest and even more impressive being in the Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10027963/Labour-is-betting-everything-on-its-new-brand-of-pothole-politics.html
Thre is a virtual long term Tory Control monploy in many county counils.So which councils might be expected to change Control tomorrow.?
The swing to Labour should give them outright control of Derbyshire,and move Lancashire,Nottinghamshire,Warwickshire and Gloustershire to NOC.
It is possible that The Lib Dems could pick up a few seats in Somerset from the Tories ad move it from Con lto NOC but that looks a long shot.
More speculative is the UKIP influnce.Looking at my own forecast of 98 Ukip gains then strong resultsfor them and losses for the |Tories could mean that The Con's lose to no overall control Cambs,Dorset,W Sussex and Wiltshire (Unitary).
Any thoughts from others on likely Council changes?
The one nation meme would be seen as a farce. Better to focus on the core votes in the cities and try to pick up a few more suburbs, this being a successful strategy in the past. If not a one nation party it is ridiculous to pretend that you are.
Poor Financial Incompetence - who signed that little lot off.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-22355993
Mr Dancer we have just passed Shakespeare's birthday so from here on in Stratford will be filling up with morris dancers as the summer progresses. Presumably you won't be heading down south for ant festivities ?
After 5 years "early" is pushing it but I like the sentiment. Not so sure that Eck will like the idea of putting some of his erstwhile friends in the pokey though. Tee hee.
So far I've found very few bookies offering Local Election markets and Oddschecker don't appear to be featuring any.
If this were to be replicated wherever there is a current LD member, they'll lose no seats. Their vote will collapse where it doesn't matter to them. The Euro elections will be a very different matter, when they'll be big odds-on to finish a very poor 4th.
"Roger - "pot hole politics" - suggest Ed should stop digging."
Well it's too subtle for me then so how the octogenarian Telegraph readers were expected to get it I've no idea.
I just thought thank goodness the man's got a plan and isn't the vacuous speak your weight machine he's looked like for the last few months
Local elections, don't you just love them?
The Conservatives lost 490 County Council seats in 1993 - that was an awful night for them. They went below 1,000 in total number of Councillors. That might be one benchmark to consider when assessing performance. That was on an estimated national vote share of 31% so not far off what the polls are saying now. The big winners then were the Lib Dems who gained nearly 400 seats on a 24% share while Labour gained 90 seats on a 41% share. Will UKIP do as well now?
There's usually something for everyone in local elections - it's rarely as good as you hope or as bad as you fear. A lot of it is expectation management, both your own and the public game. My own view is that Labour will be happiest with the results by Friday evening - they will have swept the LDs and Conservatives out of many northern seats. As for UKIP - I don't know. Will they be able to concentrate their vote where they need it or will it be 20% everywhere and little to show? The LDs will be forced back into their most solid heartlands while the Conservatives, like the Russians in 1941-42, will cede seats but still retain control in most Counties and will console themseleves that in 2017, IF Labour are in Government, they will be getting many of these losses back.
For UKIP, it will be all about keeping the momentum going through the summer and that's tough. There are three sorts of political summer:
1) Quiet - nothing much happens. People go on holiday, life moves on and everyone forgets Nigel Farage.
2) Crisis (good) - something big happens somewhere over which our Government has little control - Korea, Syria, Iran, wherever. The crisis dominates. Governments like these - it neuters the opposition who either have to support or say nothing. Gordon Brown had one of these in 2007. Plots are foiled, evil thwarted etc, etc. Everyone forgets Nigel Farage.
3) Crisis (bad) - internal political scandal leading to resignations or Eurozone crisis. Day after day, the media is dominated by this. Nigel Farage is everywhere and no one forgets him.
It's amazing how soon local elections are forgotten as life moves on and we contemplate winners at Ascot or a winner at Wimbledon or our two weeks of heaven/hell (delete as appropriate) that we call a holiday.
Strangely it makes no mention of immigration/barely disguised racism, just potholes and some waffle about local people power.
My vote tomorrow still depends largely on the weather. None of the above by default/absence is still odds-on but if it's sunny I might vote against the Kippers as they get more and more unpleasant the more I find out about them.
They are bound to do well though with the demographics in their favour, given that old people being MUCH more likely (a) to vote and (b) be a bit racist even though they wouldn't see it as that...
"If the Mail is commissioning pieces on the Chumocracy..."
Great first line by Dan Hodges-up there with Woody Allen's in "Annie Hall" *
"David Cameron is always right. We know this because one of his closest aides told us. ‘Did I get all my facts right?’ the Prime Minister asked a civil servant in an exchange chronicled in a Sunday newspaper last weekend.
‘Yes Prime Minister, just as you always do,’ came the mandarin’s bold response."
* "two elderly women are at a Catskill mountain resort, and one of 'em says, "Boy, the food at this place is really terrible." The other one says, "Yeah, I know; and such small portions."
Adding another permanent bank holiday would have a marginal impact on GDP, but there would be benefits too.
Really a bit odd but it did ask where the speakers of truth to power were. The idea that this was going to happen in the course of an interview with a journalist from the ST did strike me as somewhat naive.
Lds including MP Huppert are actively campaigning against the a14 upgrade and hence the new town.
Cons for. Lab dunno - they are banging on about safeguarding council jobs.
I also have to say that if wants prosecutions he really does not need to look north of the border. Was the LIBOR scandal, for example, not creating a false market with a view to gain? Were most of the traders not based in London? Why are they still walking the streets?
Trust and integrity will be restored in financial markets when it is made crystal clear that there are consequences for their actions. Any regulatory system that is more focussed on box ticking than that is a failure.
Will we do any better with ICAP? Yet another stonking article by Matt Taibbi in Rolling Stone about this: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/everything-is-rigged-the-biggest-financial-scandal-yet-20130425
All the usual suspects are there and many of them are Brits or at least working in London. Taibbi is by far the best financial journalist of the Crash. He puts his British compatriots to shame.
Edit I loved this bit:
"Famously, one Barclays trader monkeyed with Libor submissions in exchange for a bottle of Bollinger champagne, but in some cases, it was even lamer than that. This is from an exchange between a trader and a Libor submitter at the Royal Bank of Scotland:
SWISS FRANC TRADER: can u put 6m swiss libor in low pls?...
PRIMARY SUBMITTER: Whats it worth
SWSISS FRANC TRADER: ive got some sushi rolls from yesterday?...
PRIMARY SUBMITTER: ok low 6m, just for u
SWISS FRANC TRADER: wooooooohooooooo. . . thatd be awesome
Screwing around with world interest rates that affect billions of people in exchange for day-old sushi – it's hard to imagine an image that better captures the moral insanity of the modern financial-services sector."
480 new houses - build by the private sector - I'm all for it if done properly.
Dr Huppert MP is not in favour of upgrading the A14 and allowing the other new town Northstowe to move forward.
He was of course was against the guided busway - which is very popular with commuters.
UKIP do best among older voters and working-class voters. Therefore, look to divisions with disproportionate numbers of older voters or working class voters as the places they'll do best. In the case of the former, they should do well along the South and South West Coasts. In the case of the latter, they should do well in places like the Thames Estuary, Basildon, Harlow, Burton, Newcastle under Lyme, Great Yarmouth, Borehamwood, Margate and Ramsgate, and some ex-mining areas.
Manu PMI -less down than before (Reuters)
"The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.8 in April from an upwardly revised 48.6 in March, putting the sector within a whisker of the 50 line that separates growth from contraction.
Economists had expected a much weaker reading of 48.5."
- The Tory vote is in serious trouble, mainly due to UKIP. Labour will do very well in Tory/Lab marginals and even not-so-marginals
- The LibDem councillor vote is highly resilient. All the other parties will struggle to gain seats from them, though a few will be picked off.
- Labour's vote is quite keen but at least here contrary to ComRes) we're not picking up loads of new ones. We should do well overall but Notts control may be a challenge because lots of the target seats are LibDem.
- UKIP is doing reasonably well even where they have no campaign at all, like here in Broxtowe. God knows what it's doing where they're campaigning.
- Turnout will be up. Quite a few people who haven't voted for years are coming out to join the Kipperfest.
I live in Cambourne, which is not a bad place to live, really. Even if it is filled with kids (*). Northstowe is turning into a little bit of a mess - the A14 is nothing to do with it; it's more to do with the developers' finances.
A section 106 has just been signed for Northstowe - http://www.homesandcommunities.co.uk/northstowe-gets-planning-milestone
They got Cambourne 80% right. Sadly, they're going to make mistakes when it comes to Northstowe. It won't be as nice a place to live (although still not as bad as Bar Hill).
And there are interesting noises about the Waterbeach Barracks site, as well.
The busway has been an expensive mess. Don't get me started on it...
(*) Someone told me that Cambourne is the youngest place in the world. I don't know if that's true, but there's certainly a very large number of young kids around.
I think that is quite tricky. The politics of austerity are shaking up our structures in a way we have not seen for a long time. Tim focusses on the facts that the majority of Kippers are ex tories and that they so far come from demographics the tories rely on most. These are both clearly good points but as the Italian example recently showed once the clowns get to a certain level everybody can play.
The really interesting thing is we have at least another decade of this. No money, frustration, impotence, arguing about differences of policy that the average member of the public could never spot, alienation, anti politics. All coming to a street near you.
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/Guided-bus-takes-600000-car-journeys-off-the-roads-says-council-28092012.htm
"The study said the busway carried 2.5 million passengers in its first year, 40 per cent beyond its 1.75 million target "
The approx outcome forecast is
Con 4 gains 26 losses
LD 17 gains 6 losses
Ind 5 gains 9 losses
Lab 7 gains
MK 3 gains
UKIP/Green 2 gains each
Liberal 1 gain
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2013/05/a-tory-party-that-is-spooked-by-ukip-is-a-tory-party-that-will-lose-the-next-election/
Though such is the fifth columnist nature of the Conservative right, its logic will be ignored by many.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2013/05/01/democrats_lead_in_generic_congressional_ballot.html
That could be enough to retake the House, if it holds.
https://www.facebook.com/offtheball/photos_stream#!/photo.php?fbid=10152816137500441&set=pb.10150089120710441.-2207520000.1367403463.&type=3&theater
What an amazing 48 hours for that school and how incredibly proud everyone there must feel.
http://comresupdates.eu.com/DCJ-1GIID-F21LMD8E11/cr.aspx
Which would cover things like this:
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/04/26/brits-ignore-courts-and-deport-qatada/
It's this underlying populism that UKIP are currently tapping into, along with a general unhappiness with all politicans, or at least the 'out of touch' political class (and this is happening across Europe).