Three Tory by-election defences in the offing? – politicalbetting.com
Three Tory by-election defences in the offing? – politicalbetting.com
TheTimes is reporting that the Tories could be facing three by-election defences as a result of Johnson’s resignation honours in which he is nominating the current incumbents in the seats above for the House of Lords.
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Lab Gain.
Lib Dem Gain.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
Korea eyes submarine deal with Canada
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=351075
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Reading West will almost certainly go Labour I agree on current polls. Mid Bedfordshire could go LD in a by election if they really work it but their problem is Labour were second in 2019 there not them
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
It is the obvious thing to do.
Frictionless trade in manufacturing, where Germany had a comparative advantage, while preserving barriers in services, where we did, could have been designed to screw our industries over and benefit rEU.
And guess what happened...?
Do it if you want. I don't "disapprove" so much as think it is for most a gesture, on previously manicured mono-culture lawns that just look terrible for weeks after that first mowing in June. If you really want to help wildlife, plant specific areas of your garden for them. Alternatively, just leave a wild area all year round.
Let them stand down first at the next GE - and ideally have a minimum break - before their appointments.
Irrelevant Tory Nutter wants war with China
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/liz-truss-urges-rishi-sunak-to-describe-china-as-a-threat-to-uk-on-controversial-trip-to-taiwan/ar-AA1bhlTo?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=4c0b94f6ce9442e1bf78069f5496aae1&ei=11
Irrelevant Tory Nutter wants war with Russia.
https://news.sky.com/video/we-do-need-to-upgrade-how-much-we-spend-on-defence-says-tobias-ellwood-12882661
It's beautiful today.
If there aren't many more Labour votes to be won, but the LibDems can take 15k off the Tories with another 5k staying home, thats a LD win.
Where Labour need to be careful is not believing their own spin. Regardless of how good Starmer is, you aren't going to dislodge Tory votes to Labour in many of these seats. But they will happily vote against the Tory...
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital.
From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
You might have Starmer a bit higher or lower but he's quite middle of the pack on the power/duty axis I think.
I think Truss at the top narrowly ahead of Johnson is correct, there's never been a PM who so wildly overestimated themself beyond even Eden.
D&G should be an easy win for the SNP, but with all that is going on you may well be right. A few months ago it would have been a slam dunk.
Reading - Agree.
Mid Beds - You make a good point. There are lots of seats where Labour are in 2nd but can't win, whereas the LDs can, but convincing the electorate you can from 3rd is a challenge. That is harder in a GE than a by-election where the LDs can throw the kitchen sink at it. So I would still go for a LD win, BUT it is a hell of a majority and it assumes that Lab do not run a spoiler campaign and split the vote, which I don't think they will do.
Reading ought to be good for a Labour steal. Mid Beds I really cannot see falling.
So on a good day the Cons could retain two from three, which will look like a win for them.
North Shropshire shows the way.
Labour will focus heavily on Reading West.
Has he delivered ?
His elevation to the peerage is repugnant.
Given that, a few extra weapons doesn’t sound especially wacky.
1. For all their lunacy the UK right wingers are not a patch on their US variety. THere has been absolutely nothing at the Nat Con conference that would scare the US horses.
2. The Tories will not come anywhere near third at the next GE. Labour will, I believe, win and probably with a majority but there is no other party that will come anywhere near touching the Tories in terms of popular vote. Indeed the Lib Dems will probably suffer from the fact that Labour are looking and sounding reasonable.
It is a shame as it would be good to see the Tory party broken and reformed but it ain't going to happen.
Galloway for Galloway?!
Neither of these mean we want war with anyone but if the last few years have shown us anything it is that we cannot trust these countries to behave in reasonable ways and therefore we have to consider them a threat and arm against those threats.
Gammon, pick yourself off the ground, I said
Gammon, there's non-whites in your town
You are right to be unhappy
Gammon, there's a place you can go, I said
Gammon, when you're tired of the woke you can
Stay there and I'm sure you will find
Many ways to agree with Grimes
It's fun to stay with the NatCs today
It's fun to stay with the NatCs today
They have everything for old men to enjoy
You can hang out with all-white boys
It's fun to stay with the NatCs today
It's fun to stay with the NatCs today
You can say what you mean, you can rant a good deal
You can say whatever you feel
Your shallowness of thought process in this area is stupefying. You've farmed out your entire opinion to whatever orifice Rishi Sunak happens to be speaking from on any given issue.
I am not complaining about a few extra weapons but the sabre rattling rhetoric from fringe Tories wanting to be noticed.
Just because Russia proclaims something does not mean others have to follow. They have invaded a sovereign nation. Does not mean we should.
I'd quibble with quite a few of those. For instance, I'd say Blair is much less principled than Sunak, who wasn't willing to make the promises that might have caused him to beat Truss. Brown was so incoherent as PM that I've no idea what he actually believed, and I'm not sure he knew himself. Johnson I think delivered broadly what he said he would - NI increase apart - and what he said when he described himself as a Brexity Hezza.
However, an interesting list.
*I advocate Thermonuclear War with Russia, but not invasion.
In Mid-Beds it looks difficult for Labour to tacitly accept the LibDems as the main challenger - in 2017, the LDs barely saved their deposit, and even last time they were 9 points behind. If Reading W was on the same day, though, it'd be easier to portray it as a tacit reciprocal arrangement.
If there is a by-election, it may well come down to the quality (or perhaps electoral appeal) of the Tory and SNP candidates. Labour and Lib Dem are much too far behind to have a chance of winning, though some former Tories may vote Lib Dem and some former SNP may vote Labour, as neither front runner is in particularly good shape just now..
The Republic protestors were not allowed to contact the police liaison officer they had been working with who could have confirmed they were following the agreed rules.
And yet the Met spokesman can still sit in front of the committee and say the arress and holding for 16 hours was justified.
Fecking lunacy
THis\ denial above, at least, was some time ago. Now reported as not commenting either way on the Times report (when?).
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/humza-yousaf-calls-alister-jack-29385146
First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
As far as her achievements go, she successfully addressed a number of problems left by previous government, and is at the root of many of the problems we have today. A mixed bag.
So zero swing to SNP since 2019 and comfortable Tory hold in D and G
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1656382994272210953?s=20
A marginal SNP win with a resurgent Labour vote, declining Tory share and presumably a further eroded LD vote due to tactical voting would be a decent outcome for Labour I'd have thought, especially if they could leapfrog the conservatives into second place.
1) Invent some rules on the fly - which turn out to be illegal.
2) Fuck up implementing them egregiously
3) Lie about it
4) Get aggressive about people questioning their lies.
The Met spin department is more dishonest than Tory Central Office.
If we aren't prepared to confront the likes of Russia and China they will behave aggressively. It isn't complicated.
Build new council homes, introduce rent caps and end the scourge of empty homes.
We need housing for public good, not private profit.
= Jeremy Corbyn this morning
When our democracy is under attack, it’s up to the labour movement to fight back.
The Public Order Act must be repealed, now.
Jeremy Corbyn yesterday
SKS Labour not a single MP voted to repeal muttering something about letting Fascism bed in
You can argue about industrial strategy (or lack of it); education; Europe.
We have a much lower rate of empty homes in the UK than just about anywhere else, not surprisingly given the shortage of housing and the price of property.
What we need much more supply. Doesn't matter if it's multi-million pound penthouses or social housing, because the price of property is driven by supply vs demand, pure and simple. And we need most new supply in locations where it's currently lowest or demand is highest.
Individually selling at a discount to an existing tenant gives ownership & empowers the working class to move up in life but collectively it beggars councils which can't replace housing stock.
If you believe in women's suffrage, you believe in the right to protest.
If you oppose apartheid, you believe in the right to protest.
If you think our children deserve a liveable future, you believe in the right to protest.
Defend our freedoms. Repeal the Public Order Bill!
SKS Labour we will not Repeal we need to give it time to bed in
So literally 99% occupancy.
If you want to increase supply quickly ban Short term lets of houses that were built for residential purposes (i.e. have historically had a council tax rating).
Disclosure: my parents purchased their council house.