Three Tory by-election defences in the offing? – politicalbetting.com
TheTimes is reporting that the Tories could be facing three by-election defences as a result of Johnson’s resignation honours in which he is nominating the current incumbents in the seats above for the House of Lords.
The third one looks a stretch. Would be a sensational result. Any chance of Labour coming through the middle in D&G as voters say a plague on both your houses to the SNP and the Tories? (I would imagine no chance).
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
The third one looks a stretch. Would be a sensational result. Any chance of Labour coming through the middle in D&G as voters say a plague on both your houses to the SNP and the Tories? (I would imagine no chance).
Not really it's the perfect Lib Dem seat - Labour don't have many more votes and it's a seat like Chesham and Amersham where Lib Dem is the well you were stupid enough to let / force us to have a byelection vote..
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent...
It mirrors what they've achieved in the US, so they probably do. At least until it's tested at the ballot box.
The third one looks a stretch. Would be a sensational result. Any chance of Labour coming through the middle in D&G as voters say a plague on both your houses to the SNP and the Tories? (I would imagine no chance).
Not really it's the perfect Lib Dem seat - Labour don't have many more votes and it's a seat like Chesham and Amersham where Lib Dem is the well you were stupid enough to let / force us to have a byelection vote..
Aye - I think D&G is the Tories best chance of a hold. The SNP are the weakest relative opponent compared to their 2019 GE position facing the Tories.
I would expect the Tories to hold Dumfries and Galloway, the SNP voteshare has now fallen further since 2019 in polls than the Tory voteshare in Scotland.
Reading West will almost certainly go Labour I agree on current polls. Mid Bedfordshire could go LD in a by election if they really work it but their problem is Labour were second in 2019 there not them
Looking at the Central Beds election results a couple of weeks ago, there was a huge anti-Tory sentiment, expressed in the sheer number of Independent candidates winning. I'd expect the LIb Dems to be the only party who can harness that constituency wide if it came to a by-election. Labour did well in Arlesey area but that's with an eye to the new Hitchin (and Shefford) constituency coming down the line, rather than this by-election. The Tories will probably hope for a couple of good independent candidates to stand and split the opposition vote.
It is an open question as to whether it was industrial policy as is commonly understood (i.e. picking and favouring winning sectors and companies and protecting them) that worked in Germany, or microeconomic policy more broadly, such as an excellent education and apprenticeship system, good infrastructure, more pro-growth planning laws than here and macroeconomic policy that emphasised low inflation. (Also of course cheap Russian gas from the 80s until last year).
I'd give the latter factors much more weight, and I haven't worked in the City in quite a few years.
When you put it like that you can also see that having frictionless trade with your nearest and largest customers and suppliers would be part of a sensible industrial strategy, and erecting barriers to any such trade would not be...
If that were the case, then the industrial part of our economy should have boomed under EU membership, rather than shrivelling away, declining from 40% of GDP in 1970 to around 12% today.
Frictionless trade in manufacturing, where Germany had a comparative advantage, while preserving barriers in services, where we did, could have been designed to screw our industries over and benefit rEU.
I suspect OGH is absolutely correct in his assumption and if there is a Solihull by election that could be interesting as the Greens are quite strong on the local council.
Do it if you want. I don't "disapprove" so much as think it is for most a gesture, on previously manicured mono-culture lawns that just look terrible for weeks after that first mowing in June. If you really want to help wildlife, plant specific areas of your garden for them. Alternatively, just leave a wild area all year round.
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
The third one looks a stretch. Would be a sensational result. Any chance of Labour coming through the middle in D&G as voters say a plague on both your houses to the SNP and the Tories? (I would imagine no chance).
With so many of these seats the basic question isn't will the Tory vote collapse, it is will the Labour vote rise?
If there aren't many more Labour votes to be won, but the LibDems can take 15k off the Tories with another 5k staying home, thats a LD win.
Where Labour need to be careful is not believing their own spin. Regardless of how good Starmer is, you aren't going to dislodge Tory votes to Labour in many of these seats. But they will happily vote against the Tory...
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Sadly true.
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
This applies to every potential and would be PM I think ?
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital. From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
You might have Starmer a bit higher or lower but he's quite middle of the pack on the power/duty axis I think.
I think Truss at the top narrowly ahead of Johnson is correct, there's never been a PM who so wildly overestimated themself beyond even Eden.
I would expect the Tories to hold Dumfries and Galloway, the SNP voteshare has now fallen further since 2019 in polls than the Tory voteshare in Scotland.
Reading West will almost certainly go Labour I agree on current polls. Mid Bedfordshire could go LD in a by election if they really work it but their problem is Labour were second in 2019 there not them
Agree with most of that.
D&G should be an easy win for the SNP, but with all that is going on you may well be right. A few months ago it would have been a slam dunk.
Reading - Agree.
Mid Beds - You make a good point. There are lots of seats where Labour are in 2nd but can't win, whereas the LDs can, but convincing the electorate you can from 3rd is a challenge. That is harder in a GE than a by-election where the LDs can throw the kitchen sink at it. So I would still go for a LD win, BUT it is a hell of a majority and it assumes that Lab do not run a spoiler campaign and split the vote, which I don't think they will do.
D&G will be interesting as you have two parties both in their own peculiar disarray, but no likely insurgent either. It's a coin flip for me. My mum lives in Castle Douglas so it's an area I'm reasonably familiar with. Not a hotbed of independence and I feel there's a good deal of dissatisfaction with the SNP.
Reading ought to be good for a Labour steal. Mid Beds I really cannot see falling.
So on a good day the Cons could retain two from three, which will look like a win for them.
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Unilike Boris, and his two pro- and anti-Brexit articles, ofcourse.
I was making no comparison to anyone else.. more to the point, let's just look at the things Starmer is doing and saying and why he is doing and saying them. He is no saint come to save the UK. He is just another in a long list of greasy pole climbers....
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
Is Rishi Sunak an irrelevant Tory nutter - he described China as the UK's biggest long term threat, and promised to close all their Confucius Institutes during his leadership campaign. Huge if true.
I would expect the Tories to hold Dumfries and Galloway, the SNP voteshare has now fallen further since 2019 in polls than the Tory voteshare in Scotland.
Reading West will almost certainly go Labour I agree on current polls. Mid Bedfordshire could go LD in a by election if they really work it but their problem is Labour were second in 2019 there not them
Agree with most of that.
D&G should be an easy win for the SNP, but with all that is going on you may well be right. A few months ago it would have been a slam dunk.
Reading - Agree.
Mid Beds - You make a good point. There are lots of seats where Labour are in 2nd but can't win, whereas the LDs can, but convincing the electorate you can from 3rd is a challenge. That is harder in a GE than a by-election where the LDs can throw the kitchen sink at it. So I would still go for a LD win, BUT it is a hell of a majority and it assumes that Lab do not run a spoiler campaign and split the vote, which I don't think they will do.
"but convincing the electorate you can from 3rd is a challenge."
Surely it isn’t beyond the wit of Sunak and these three MPs to agree to hold their elevation to the Lords until the 2024 dissolution honours list?
Maybe they are worried that if they unseat Sunak, in the hope of replacing him with King Boris, that Boris might not win and whoever does isn’t bound by any agreement and will do the right thing and refuse their peerages.
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Sadly true.
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
This applies to every potential and would be PM I think ?
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital. From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
You might have Starmer a bit higher or lower but he's quite middle of the pack on the power/duty axis I think.
I think Truss at the top narrowly ahead of Johnson is correct, there's never been a PM who so wildly overestimated themself beyond even Eden.
I'd agree with most of these, except I'd say that Miliband spent years quire boldy exploring policies that weren't that immediately populist ; also, I'd say that as an individual, that he's far from being that power-hungry, for me.
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Sadly true.
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
This applies to every potential and would be PM I think ?
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital. From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
You might have Starmer a bit higher or lower but he's quite middle of the pack on the power/duty axis I think.
I think Truss at the top narrowly ahead of Johnson is correct, there's never been a PM who so wildly overestimated themself beyond even Eden.
I'd agree with most of these, except I'd say that Miliband spent years quire boldy exploring policies that weren't that immediately populist ; also, I'd say as an individual, that he's far from that power-hungry, I would say.
Yes, he's a tricky one to place - he ruthlessly exploited his brother's umming and arring though. Were it not for his main opponent being Bananaman I'd have him below Blair.
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
Is Rishi Sunak an irrelevant Tory nutter - he described China as the UK's biggest long term threat, and promised to close all their Confucius Institutes during his leadership campaign. Huge if true.
I would expect the Tories to hold Dumfries and Galloway, the SNP voteshare has now fallen further since 2019 in polls than the Tory voteshare in Scotland.
Reading West will almost certainly go Labour I agree on current polls. Mid Bedfordshire could go LD in a by election if they really work it but their problem is Labour were second in 2019 there not them
Agree with most of that.
D&G should be an easy win for the SNP, but with all that is going on you may well be right. A few months ago it would have been a slam dunk.
Reading - Agree.
Mid Beds - You make a good point. There are lots of seats where Labour are in 2nd but can't win, whereas the LDs can, but convincing the electorate you can from 3rd is a challenge. That is harder in a GE than a by-election where the LDs can throw the kitchen sink at it. So I would still go for a LD win, BUT it is a hell of a majority and it assumes that Lab do not run a spoiler campaign and split the vote, which I don't think they will do.
Re. D&G: It's not a bad opportunity for Labour to do a bit of groundwork in the constituency too. I can't see them winning the by election, but it's not unreasonable for them to be looking for a solid second place in the GE next year. Me mam'll be voting for them, and she went SNP last time.
I would expect the Tories to hold Dumfries and Galloway, the SNP voteshare has now fallen further since 2019 in polls than the Tory voteshare in Scotland.
Reading West will almost certainly go Labour I agree on current polls. Mid Bedfordshire could go LD in a by election if they really work it but their problem is Labour were second in 2019 there not them
Agree with most of that.
D&G should be an easy win for the SNP, but with all that is going on you may well be right. A few months ago it would have been a slam dunk.
Reading - Agree.
Mid Beds - You make a good point. There are lots of seats where Labour are in 2nd but can't win, whereas the LDs can, but convincing the electorate you can from 3rd is a challenge. That is harder in a GE than a by-election where the LDs can throw the kitchen sink at it. So I would still go for a LD win, BUT it is a hell of a majority and it assumes that Lab do not run a spoiler campaign and split the vote, which I don't think they will do.
Re. D&G: It's not a bad opportunity for Labour to do a bit of groundwork in the constituency too. I can't see them winning the by election, but it's not unreasonable for them to be looking for a solid second place in the GE next year. Me mam'll be voting for them, and she went SNP last time.
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
Is Rishi Sunak an irrelevant Tory nutter - he described China as the UK's biggest long term threat, and promised to close all their Confucius Institutes during his leadership campaign. Huge if true.
Has he delivered ?
And Russia has declared they are in an existential war with the entire Western world.
Given that, a few extra weapons doesn’t sound especially wacky.
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
Two things I disagree with here.
1. For all their lunacy the UK right wingers are not a patch on their US variety. THere has been absolutely nothing at the Nat Con conference that would scare the US horses. 2. The Tories will not come anywhere near third at the next GE. Labour will, I believe, win and probably with a majority but there is no other party that will come anywhere near touching the Tories in terms of popular vote. Indeed the Lib Dems will probably suffer from the fact that Labour are looking and sounding reasonable.
It is a shame as it would be good to see the Tory party broken and reformed but it ain't going to happen.
I would expect the Tories to hold Dumfries and Galloway, the SNP voteshare has now fallen further since 2019 in polls than the Tory voteshare in Scotland.
Reading West will almost certainly go Labour I agree on current polls. Mid Bedfordshire could go LD in a by election if they really work it but their problem is Labour were second in 2019 there not them
Agree with most of that.
D&G should be an easy win for the SNP, but with all that is going on you may well be right. A few months ago it would have been a slam dunk.
Reading - Agree.
Mid Beds - You make a good point. There are lots of seats where Labour are in 2nd but can't win, whereas the LDs can, but convincing the electorate you can from 3rd is a challenge. That is harder in a GE than a by-election where the LDs can throw the kitchen sink at it. So I would still go for a LD win, BUT it is a hell of a majority and it assumes that Lab do not run a spoiler campaign and split the vote, which I don't think they will do.
Re. D&G: It's not a bad opportunity for Labour to do a bit of groundwork in the constituency too. I can't see them winning the by election, but it's not unreasonable for them to be looking for a solid second place in the GE next year. Me mam'll be voting for them, and she went SNP last time.
That's how the Conservatives win I think.
Yeah - the SNP were the 'stop Tories' party but now a lot of those who lent their vote feel a bit uncomfortable with them now.
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
They may be nutters and they may be irrelevant (okay no 'may' about it with regards to Truss) but they are not wrong in tyese instances. China IS a threat to the UK and we really, really do ned to increase defence spending.
Neither of these mean we want war with anyone but if the last few years have shown us anything it is that we cannot trust these countries to behave in reasonable ways and therefore we have to consider them a threat and arm against those threats.
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
Two things I disagree with here.
1. For all their lunacy the UK right wingers are not a patch on their US variety. THere has been absolutely nothing at the Nat Con conference that would scare the US horses. 2. The Tories will not come anywhere near third at the next GE. Labour will, I believe, win and probably with a majority but there is no other party that will come anywhere near touching the Tories in terms of popular vote. Indeed the Lib Dems will probably suffer from the fact that Labour are looking and sounding reasonable.
It is a shame as it would be good to see the Tory party broken and reformed but it ain't going to happen.
Both true, but on 1. this is where the lunacy starts and it can only head rightwards from there. There are certain societal fundamentals (e.g. guns, God and abortion) where the UK is entrenched in a different outlook though - so yeah, at least we aren't having these mad conversations about arming school teachers and whatnot.
Anway, let's get back to lefty chortling at the NatC conference. That's some line up.
If they dressed as The Village People I'd be tempted to watch tbf
Gammon, there's no need to feel down, I said Gammon, pick yourself off the ground, I said Gammon, there's non-whites in your town You are right to be unhappy Gammon, there's a place you can go, I said Gammon, when you're tired of the woke you can Stay there and I'm sure you will find Many ways to agree with Grimes
It's fun to stay with the NatCs today It's fun to stay with the NatCs today They have everything for old men to enjoy You can hang out with all-white boys It's fun to stay with the NatCs today It's fun to stay with the NatCs today You can say what you mean, you can rant a good deal You can say whatever you feel
I would expect the Tories to hold Dumfries and Galloway, the SNP voteshare has now fallen further since 2019 in polls than the Tory voteshare in Scotland.
Reading West will almost certainly go Labour I agree on current polls. Mid Bedfordshire could go LD in a by election if they really work it but their problem is Labour were second in 2019 there not them
Agree with most of that.
D&G should be an easy win for the SNP, but with all that is going on you may well be right. A few months ago it would have been a slam dunk.
Reading - Agree.
Mid Beds - You make a good point. There are lots of seats where Labour are in 2nd but can't win, whereas the LDs can, but convincing the electorate you can from 3rd is a challenge. That is harder in a GE than a by-election where the LDs can throw the kitchen sink at it. So I would still go for a LD win, BUT it is a hell of a majority and it assumes that Lab do not run a spoiler campaign and split the vote, which I don't think they will do.
Re. D&G: It's not a bad opportunity for Labour to do a bit of groundwork in the constituency too. I can't see them winning the by election, but it's not unreasonable for them to be looking for a solid second place in the GE next year. Me mam'll be voting for them, and she went SNP last time.
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
Is Rishi Sunak an irrelevant Tory nutter - he described China as the UK's biggest long term threat, and promised to close all their Confucius Institutes during his leadership campaign. Huge if true.
Has he delivered ?
Either China is a geostrategic threat, and we should be taking firm action now, or it's all fine and it should be steady as we go. Which do you think it is, because I get the distinct impression that if Sunak was bringing in anti-Chinese laws and regulations, and Truss had gone to Beijing to advocate a more pro-Chinese approach, you'd still be calling her the irrelevant nutter, or 'China's useful idiot'.
Your shallowness of thought process in this area is stupefying. You've farmed out your entire opinion to whatever orifice Rishi Sunak happens to be speaking from on any given issue.
I would expect the Tories to hold Dumfries and Galloway, the SNP voteshare has now fallen further since 2019 in polls than the Tory voteshare in Scotland.
Reading West will almost certainly go Labour I agree on current polls. Mid Bedfordshire could go LD in a by election if they really work it but their problem is Labour were second in 2019 there not them
Agree with most of that.
D&G should be an easy win for the SNP, but with all that is going on you may well be right. A few months ago it would have been a slam dunk.
Reading - Agree.
Mid Beds - You make a good point. There are lots of seats where Labour are in 2nd but can't win, whereas the LDs can, but convincing the electorate you can from 3rd is a challenge. That is harder in a GE than a by-election where the LDs can throw the kitchen sink at it. So I would still go for a LD win, BUT it is a hell of a majority and it assumes that Lab do not run a spoiler campaign and split the vote, which I don't think they will do.
Re. D&G: It's not a bad opportunity for Labour to do a bit of groundwork in the constituency too. I can't see them winning the by election, but it's not unreasonable for them to be looking for a solid second place in the GE next year. Me mam'll be voting for them, and she went SNP last time.
That's how the Conservatives win I think.
Yeah - the SNP were the 'stop Tories' party but now a lot of those who lent their vote feel a bit uncomfortable with them now.
Nothing has changed it is either Tories or Labour Tories so BAU.
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
Is Rishi Sunak an irrelevant Tory nutter - he described China as the UK's biggest long term threat, and promised to close all their Confucius Institutes during his leadership campaign. Huge if true.
Has he delivered ?
And Russia has declared they are in an existential war with the entire Western world.
Given that, a few extra weapons doesn’t sound especially wacky.
I am not complaining about a few extra weapons but the sabre rattling rhetoric from fringe Tories wanting to be noticed.
Just because Russia proclaims something does not mean others have to follow. They have invaded a sovereign nation. Does not mean we should.
I would expect the Tories to hold Dumfries and Galloway, the SNP voteshare has now fallen further since 2019 in polls than the Tory voteshare in Scotland.
Reading West will almost certainly go Labour I agree on current polls. Mid Bedfordshire could go LD in a by election if they really work it but their problem is Labour were second in 2019 there not them
Agree with most of that.
D&G should be an easy win for the SNP, but with all that is going on you may well be right. A few months ago it would have been a slam dunk.
Reading - Agree.
Mid Beds - You make a good point. There are lots of seats where Labour are in 2nd but can't win, whereas the LDs can, but convincing the electorate you can from 3rd is a challenge. That is harder in a GE than a by-election where the LDs can throw the kitchen sink at it. So I would still go for a LD win, BUT it is a hell of a majority and it assumes that Lab do not run a spoiler campaign and split the vote, which I don't think they will do.
Re. D&G: It's not a bad opportunity for Labour to do a bit of groundwork in the constituency too. I can't see them winning the by election, but it's not unreasonable for them to be looking for a solid second place in the GE next year. Me mam'll be voting for them, and she went SNP last time.
Anway, let's get back to lefty chortling at the NatC conference. That's some line up.
If they dressed as The Village People I'd be tempted to watch tbf
Gammon, there's no need to feel down, I said Gammon, pick yourself off the ground, I said Gammon, there's non-whites in your town You are right to be unhappy Gammon, there's a place you can go, I said Gammon, when you're tired of the woke you can Stay there and I'm sure you will find Many ways to agree with Grimes
It's fun to stay with the NatCs today It's fun to stay with the NatCs today They have everything for old men to enjoy You can hang out with all-white boys It's fun to stay with the NatCs today It's fun to stay with the NatCs today You can say what you mean, you can rant a good deal You can say whatever you feel
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Sadly true.
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
This applies to every potential and would be PM I think ?
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital. From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
I notice you stop just in time to leave Margaret Thatcher off that list, the one PM in my lifetime who had a strategy, was open about it, stuck to it, and generally only retreated for tactical purposes.
I'd quibble with quite a few of those. For instance, I'd say Blair is much less principled than Sunak, who wasn't willing to make the promises that might have caused him to beat Truss. Brown was so incoherent as PM that I've no idea what he actually believed, and I'm not sure he knew himself. Johnson I think delivered broadly what he said he would - NI increase apart - and what he said when he described himself as a Brexity Hezza.
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
Is Rishi Sunak an irrelevant Tory nutter - he described China as the UK's biggest long term threat, and promised to close all their Confucius Institutes during his leadership campaign. Huge if true.
Has he delivered ?
And Russia has declared they are in an existential war with the entire Western world.
Given that, a few extra weapons doesn’t sound especially wacky.
I am not complaining about a few extra weapons but the sabre rattling rhetoric from fringe Tories wanting to be noticed.
Just because Russia proclaims something does not mean others have to follow. They have invaded a sovereign nation. Does not mean we should.
No one is suggesting we invade Russia* or China
*I advocate Thermonuclear War with Russia, but not invasion.
I've seen a report (Guardian blog?) that Alastair Jack has said flatly that he will NOT stand down before the GE, regardless of honours, while the other two have said they would.
In Mid-Beds it looks difficult for Labour to tacitly accept the LibDems as the main challenger - in 2017, the LDs barely saved their deposit, and even last time they were 9 points behind. If Reading W was on the same day, though, it'd be easier to portray it as a tacit reciprocal arrangement.
I will be surprised if there is a by-election in Dumfries and Galloway (where my late father was from {Kirkcudbright}, and where I still have relatives who split fairly evenly I think Tory/SNP). My suspicion is that Jack agreed to remain in the Commons until the next General Election but only if he was allowed to remain as Secretary of State for Scotland.
If there is a by-election, it may well come down to the quality (or perhaps electoral appeal) of the Tory and SNP candidates. Labour and Lib Dem are much too far behind to have a chance of winning, though some former Tories may vote Lib Dem and some former SNP may vote Labour, as neither front runner is in particularly good shape just now..
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Sadly true.
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
This applies to every potential and would be PM I think ?
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital. From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
I notice you stop just in time to leave Margaret Thatcher off that list, the one PM in my lifetime who had a strategy, was open about it, stuck to it, and generally only retreated for tactical purposes.
I'd quibble with quite a few of those. For instance, I'd say Blair is much less principled than Sunak, who wasn't willing to make the promises that might have caused him to beat Truss. Brown was so incoherent as PM that I've no idea what he actually believed, and I'm not sure he knew himself. Johnson I think delivered broadly what he said he would - NI increase apart - and what he said when he described himself as a Brexity Hezza.
However, an interesting list.
I wasn't born when Thatcher came to power so I don't know where to place her really in this particular list. Higher up if you believe the Crown's portrayal of her was somewhere near accurate. But maybe it wasn't - in which case she'd be more middling.
Jesus. This testimony about the Met arrests before the Coronation is absolutely damning. It turns out the 3 safety volunteers arrested actually work in partnership with the Met and were wearing hi vis vests with the Met name on them.
The Republic protestors were not allowed to contact the police liaison officer they had been working with who could have confirmed they were following the agreed rules.
And yet the Met spokesman can still sit in front of the committee and say the arress and holding for 16 hours was justified.
I've seen a report (Guardian blog?) that Alastair Jack has said flatly that he will NOT stand down before the GE, regardless of honours, while the other two have said they would.
In Mid-Beds it looks difficult for Labour to tacitly accept the LibDems as the main challenger - in 2017, the LDs barely saved their deposit, and even last time they were 9 points behind. If Reading W was on the same day, though, it'd be easier to portray it as a tacit reciprocal arrangement.
Jesus. This testimony about the Met arrests before the Coronation is absolutely damning. It turns out the 3 safety volunteers arrested actually work in partnership with the Met and were wearing hi vis vests with the Met name on them.
The Republic protestors wer not allowed to contact the police liaison officer they had been working with who could have confirmed they were following the agreed rules.
And yet the Met spokesman can still sit in front of the committee and say the arress and holding for 16 hours was justified.
Fecking lunacy
What did the spokesperson say about the nice Australian royalist lady?
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
Is Rishi Sunak an irrelevant Tory nutter - he described China as the UK's biggest long term threat, and promised to close all their Confucius Institutes during his leadership campaign. Huge if true.
Has he delivered ?
And Russia has declared they are in an existential war with the entire Western world.
Given that, a few extra weapons doesn’t sound especially wacky.
I am not complaining about a few extra weapons but the sabre rattling rhetoric from fringe Tories wanting to be noticed.
Just because Russia proclaims something does not mean others have to follow. They have invaded a sovereign nation. Does not mean we should.
No one is suggesting we invade Russia* or China
*I advocate Thermonuclear War with Russia, but not invasion.
No but just because Russia states something, for domestic consumption, does not make it fact. That is the point I am making and politicians ramping up the rhetoric on both China and Russia, primarily for their own self-aggrandisment is really not helpful at all.
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
I will be surprised if there is a by-election in Dumfries and Galloway (where my late father was from {Kirkcudbright}, and where I still have relatives who split fairly evenly I think Tory/SNP). My suspicion is that Jack agreed to remain in the Commons until the next General Election but only if he was allowed to remain as Secretary of State for Scotland.
If there is a by-election, it may well come down to the quality (or perhaps electoral appeal) of the Tory and SNP candidates. Labour and Lib Dem are much too far behind to have a chance of winning, though some former Tories may vote Lib Dem and some former SNP may vote Labour, as neither front runner is in particularly good shape just now..
Side note but I'm very fond of Kirkcudbright; if I were of independent means I'd be very happy to move into a little pastel terrace with a wee garden there once I've booted the kids out.
I would expect the Tories to hold Dumfries and Galloway, the SNP voteshare has now fallen further since 2019 in polls than the Tory voteshare in Scotland.
Reading West will almost certainly go Labour I agree on current polls. Mid Bedfordshire could go LD in a by election if they really work it but their problem is Labour were second in 2019 there not them
Agree with most of that.
D&G should be an easy win for the SNP, but with all that is going on you may well be right. A few months ago it would have been a slam dunk.
Reading - Agree.
Mid Beds - You make a good point. There are lots of seats where Labour are in 2nd but can't win, whereas the LDs can, but convincing the electorate you can from 3rd is a challenge. That is harder in a GE than a by-election where the LDs can throw the kitchen sink at it. So I would still go for a LD win, BUT it is a hell of a majority and it assumes that Lab do not run a spoiler campaign and split the vote, which I don't think they will do.
Re. D&G: It's not a bad opportunity for Labour to do a bit of groundwork in the constituency too. I can't see them winning the by election, but it's not unreasonable for them to be looking for a solid second place in the GE next year. Me mam'll be voting for them, and she went SNP last time.
That's how the Conservatives win I think.
Yeah - the SNP were the 'stop Tories' party but now a lot of those who lent their vote feel a bit uncomfortable with them now.
IMHO, the Conservatives would certainly hold D & G in a GE, and probably hold it in a by-election.
Jesus. This testimony about the Met arrests before the Coronation is absolutely damning. It turns out the 3 safety volunteers arrested actually work in partnership with the Met and were wearing hi vis vests with the Met name on them.
The Republic protestors were not allowed to contact the police liaison officer they had been working with who could have confirmed they were following the agreed rules.
And yet the Met spokesman can still sit in front of the committee and say the arress and holding for 16 hours was justified.
Fecking lunacy
First they came for the Communists And I did not speak out Because I was not a Communist Then they came for the Socialists And I did not speak out Because I was not a Socialist Then they came for the trade unionists And I did not speak out Because I was not a trade unionist Then they came for the Jews And I did not speak out Because I was not a Jew Then they came for me And there was no one left To speak out for me
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Sadly true.
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
This applies to every potential and would be PM I think ?
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital. From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
I notice you stop just in time to leave Margaret Thatcher off that list, the one PM in my lifetime who had a strategy, was open about it, stuck to it, and generally only retreated for tactical purposes.
I'd quibble with quite a few of those. For instance, I'd say Blair is much less principled than Sunak, who wasn't willing to make the promises that might have caused him to beat Truss. Brown was so incoherent as PM that I've no idea what he actually believed, and I'm not sure he knew himself. Johnson I think delivered broadly what he said he would - NI increase apart - and what he said when he described himself as a Brexity Hezza.
However, an interesting list.
I wasn't born when Thatcher came to power so I don't know where to place her really in this particular list. Higher up if you believe the Crown's portrayal of her was somewhere near accurate. But maybe it wasn't - in which case she'd be more middling.
In terms of election campaigns, they tended to be negative attacks on Labour, rather than particular promises - though it was fairly clear where she was coming from.
As far as her achievements go, she successfully addressed a number of problems left by previous government, and is at the root of many of the problems we have today. A mixed bag.
Jesus. This testimony about the Met arrests before the Coronation is absolutely damning. It turns out the 3 safety volunteers arrested actually work in partnership with the Met and were wearing hi vis vests with the Met name on them.
The Republic protestors wer not allowed to contact the police liaison officer they had been working with who could have confirmed they were following the agreed rules.
And yet the Met spokesman can still sit in front of the committee and say the arress and holding for 16 hours was justified.
Fecking lunacy
What did the spokesperson say about the nice Australian royalist lady?
I missed that bit. The Safety Volunteers and the Republic spokesman are both in the room being questioned so their testimony and that of the police is what is very revealing.
I will be surprised if there is a by-election in Dumfries and Galloway (where my late father was from {Kirkcudbright}, and where I still have relatives who split fairly evenly I think Tory/SNP). My suspicion is that Jack agreed to remain in the Commons until the next General Election but only if he was allowed to remain as Secretary of State for Scotland.
If there is a by-election, it may well come down to the quality (or perhaps electoral appeal) of the Tory and SNP candidates. Labour and Lib Dem are much too far behind to have a chance of winning, though some former Tories may vote Lib Dem and some former SNP may vote Labour, as neither front runner is in particularly good shape just now..
I obviously don't know the constituency so I'm just looking at the numbers and the national position, but it seems a no-brainer for Labour to go all out in Dumfries and Galloway. They certainly don't want to support unionist tactical voting for the Tory given the looming GE and the opportunity to land another blow, but on the other hand the recent weakness in the SNP vote suggests they could get a fair block of votes from them. Labour were way down in 2019 according to the stats so they should at least bounce back.
A marginal SNP win with a resurgent Labour vote, declining Tory share and presumably a further eroded LD vote due to tactical voting would be a decent outcome for Labour I'd have thought, especially if they could leapfrog the conservatives into second place.
Jesus. This testimony about the Met arrests before the Coronation is absolutely damning. It turns out the 3 safety volunteers arrested actually work in partnership with the Met and were wearing hi vis vests with the Met name on them.
The Republic protestors were not allowed to contact the police liaison officer they had been working with who could have confirmed they were following the agreed rules.
And yet the Met spokesman can still sit in front of the committee and say the arress and holding for 16 hours was justified.
Fecking lunacy
So Standard Met Operating procedure
1) Invent some rules on the fly - which turn out to be illegal. 2) Fuck up implementing them egregiously 3) Lie about it 4) Get aggressive about people questioning their lies.
Jesus. This testimony about the Met arrests before the Coronation is absolutely damning. It turns out the 3 safety volunteers arrested actually work in partnership with the Met and were wearing hi vis vests with the Met name on them.
The Republic protestors were not allowed to contact the police liaison officer they had been working with who could have confirmed they were following the agreed rules.
And yet the Met spokesman can still sit in front of the committee and say the arress and holding for 16 hours was justified.
Fecking lunacy
Confirms what was claimed on the day. The Met spin department is more dishonest than Tory Central Office.
The Tory LoonFest seems to be wrapping up today after a procession of gargoyles who are either demented, deluded or both. Some are clearly care in the community cases, but one or two were spouting stuff that was not merely deluded drivel but actually evil.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Sadly true.
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
This applies to every potential and would be PM I think ?
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital. From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
I notice you stop just in time to leave Margaret Thatcher off that list, the one PM in my lifetime who had a strategy, was open about it, stuck to it, and generally only retreated for tactical purposes.
I'd quibble with quite a few of those. For instance, I'd say Blair is much less principled than Sunak, who wasn't willing to make the promises that might have caused him to beat Truss. Brown was so incoherent as PM that I've no idea what he actually believed, and I'm not sure he knew himself. Johnson I think delivered broadly what he said he would - NI increase apart - and what he said when he described himself as a Brexity Hezza.
However, an interesting list.
I wasn't born when Thatcher came to power so I don't know where to place her really in this particular list. Higher up if you believe the Crown's portrayal of her was somewhere near accurate. But maybe it wasn't - in which case she'd be more middling.
In terms of election campaigns, they tended to be negative attacks on Labour, rather than particular promises - though it was fairly clear where she was coming from.
As far as her achievements go, she successfully addressed a number of problems left by previous government, and is at the root of many of the problems we have today. A mixed bag.
Jesus. This testimony about the Met arrests before the Coronation is absolutely damning. It turns out the 3 safety volunteers arrested actually work in partnership with the Met and were wearing hi vis vests with the Met name on them.
The Republic protestors were not allowed to contact the police liaison officer they had been working with who could have confirmed they were following the agreed rules.
And yet the Met spokesman can still sit in front of the committee and say the arress and holding for 16 hours was justified.
Fecking lunacy
Did you hear about the young Australian woman who was locked up for many hours on the day of the coronation just because she happened to be standing next to some protesters? She had specially come over to the UK to celebrate the occasion.
Jesus. This testimony about the Met arrests before the Coronation is absolutely damning. It turns out the 3 safety volunteers arrested actually work in partnership with the Met and were wearing hi vis vests with the Met name on them.
The Republic protestors wer not allowed to contact the police liaison officer they had been working with who could have confirmed they were following the agreed rules.
And yet the Met spokesman can still sit in front of the committee and say the arress and holding for 16 hours was justified.
Fecking lunacy
What did the spokesperson say about the nice Australian royalist lady?
I missed that bit. The Safety Volunteers and the Republic spokesman are both in the room being questioned so their testimony and that of the police is what is very revealing.
Thanks! I don't suppose the lady wanted to hang around to give her testimony. That they arrested her at all is also very revealing.
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Sadly true.
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
This applies to every potential and would be PM I think ?
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital. From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
I notice you stop just in time to leave Margaret Thatcher off that list, the one PM in my lifetime who had a strategy, was open about it, stuck to it, and generally only retreated for tactical purposes.
I'd quibble with quite a few of those. For instance, I'd say Blair is much less principled than Sunak, who wasn't willing to make the promises that might have caused him to beat Truss. Brown was so incoherent as PM that I've no idea what he actually believed, and I'm not sure he knew himself. Johnson I think delivered broadly what he said he would - NI increase apart - and what he said when he described himself as a Brexity Hezza.
However, an interesting list.
I wasn't born when Thatcher came to power so I don't know where to place her really in this particular list. Higher up if you believe the Crown's portrayal of her was somewhere near accurate. But maybe it wasn't - in which case she'd be more middling.
In terms of election campaigns, they tended to be negative attacks on Labour, rather than particular promises - though it was fairly clear where she was coming from.
As far as her achievements go, she successfully addressed a number of problems left by previous government, and is at the root of many of the problems we have today. A mixed bag.
Which problems today is she at the root at?
Evisceration of local government and housing for a start. Both unequivocally traceable back to her administrations. You can argue about industrial strategy (or lack of it); education; Europe.
Build new council homes, introduce rent caps and end the scourge of empty homes.
We need housing for public good, not private profit.
= Jeremy Corbyn this morning
Rental caps have very mixed results - they tend to create cliff edges in the market
We have a much lower rate of empty homes in the UK than just about anywhere else, not surprisingly given the shortage of housing and the price of property.
What we need much more supply. Doesn't matter if it's multi-million pound penthouses or social housing, because the price of property is driven by supply vs demand, pure and simple. And we need most new supply in locations where it's currently lowest or demand is highest.
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Sadly true.
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
This applies to every potential and would be PM I think ?
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital. From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
I notice you stop just in time to leave Margaret Thatcher off that list, the one PM in my lifetime who had a strategy, was open about it, stuck to it, and generally only retreated for tactical purposes.
I'd quibble with quite a few of those. For instance, I'd say Blair is much less principled than Sunak, who wasn't willing to make the promises that might have caused him to beat Truss. Brown was so incoherent as PM that I've no idea what he actually believed, and I'm not sure he knew himself. Johnson I think delivered broadly what he said he would - NI increase apart - and what he said when he described himself as a Brexity Hezza.
However, an interesting list.
I wasn't born when Thatcher came to power so I don't know where to place her really in this particular list. Higher up if you believe the Crown's portrayal of her was somewhere near accurate. But maybe it wasn't - in which case she'd be more middling.
In terms of election campaigns, they tended to be negative attacks on Labour, rather than particular promises - though it was fairly clear where she was coming from.
As far as her achievements go, she successfully addressed a number of problems left by previous government, and is at the root of many of the problems we have today. A mixed bag.
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Sadly true.
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
This applies to every potential and would be PM I think ?
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital. From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
I notice you stop just in time to leave Margaret Thatcher off that list, the one PM in my lifetime who had a strategy, was open about it, stuck to it, and generally only retreated for tactical purposes.
I'd quibble with quite a few of those. For instance, I'd say Blair is much less principled than Sunak, who wasn't willing to make the promises that might have caused him to beat Truss. Brown was so incoherent as PM that I've no idea what he actually believed, and I'm not sure he knew himself. Johnson I think delivered broadly what he said he would - NI increase apart - and what he said when he described himself as a Brexity Hezza.
However, an interesting list.
I wasn't born when Thatcher came to power so I don't know where to place her really in this particular list. Higher up if you believe the Crown's portrayal of her was somewhere near accurate. But maybe it wasn't - in which case she'd be more middling.
In terms of election campaigns, they tended to be negative attacks on Labour, rather than particular promises - though it was fairly clear where she was coming from.
As far as her achievements go, she successfully addressed a number of problems left by previous government, and is at the root of many of the problems we have today. A mixed bag.
Which problems today is she at the root at?
Lack of council housing ? Individually selling at a discount to an existing tenant gives ownership & empowers the working class to move up in life but collectively it beggars councils which can't replace housing stock.
Build new council homes, introduce rent caps and end the scourge of empty homes.
We need housing for public good, not private profit.
= Jeremy Corbyn this morning
Rental caps have very mixed results - they tend to create cliff edges in the market
We have a much lower rate of empty homes in the UK than just about anywhere else, not surprisingly given the shortage of housing and the price of property.
What we need much more supply. Doesn't matter if it's multi-million pound penthouses or social housing, because the price of property is driven by supply vs demand, pure and simple. And we need most new supply in locations where it's currently lowest or demand is highest.
In London, for example, there are 34K empty properties. Out of 3.7 million properties.
Build new council homes, introduce rent caps and end the scourge of empty homes.
We need housing for public good, not private profit.
= Jeremy Corbyn this morning
I agree
Build new council homes - but rent caps solve a short term issue while creating a way bigger long term one.
If you want to increase supply quickly ban Short term lets of houses that were built for residential purposes (i.e. have historically had a council tax rating).
Jeremy Corbyn If you believe in women's suffrage, you believe in the right to protest.
If you oppose apartheid, you believe in the right to protest.
If you think our children deserve a liveable future, you believe in the right to protest.
Defend our freedoms. Repeal the Public Order Bill!
SKS Labour we will not Repeal we need to give it time to bed in
Lib Dems need to keep Keir's feet to the fire on this and other civil liberties issues after the next election. There's an authoritarian streak in Labour, always has been.
Jesus. This testimony about the Met arrests before the Coronation is absolutely damning. It turns out the 3 safety volunteers arrested actually work in partnership with the Met and were wearing hi vis vests with the Met name on them.
The Republic protestors were not allowed to contact the police liaison officer they had been working with who could have confirmed they were following the agreed rules.
And yet the Met spokesman can still sit in front of the committee and say the arress and holding for 16 hours was justified.
Fecking lunacy
Did you hear about the young Australian woman who was locked up for many hours on the day of the coronation just because she happened to be standing next to some protesters? She had specially come over to the UK to celebrate the occasion.
No she hadn't she has lived in the UK for years but the rest of your story is correct she was arrested for 13 hours for the crime of standing next to the wrong person.
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Sadly true.
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
This applies to every potential and would be PM I think ?
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital. From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
I notice you stop just in time to leave Margaret Thatcher off that list, the one PM in my lifetime who had a strategy, was open about it, stuck to it, and generally only retreated for tactical purposes.
I'd quibble with quite a few of those. For instance, I'd say Blair is much less principled than Sunak, who wasn't willing to make the promises that might have caused him to beat Truss. Brown was so incoherent as PM that I've no idea what he actually believed, and I'm not sure he knew himself. Johnson I think delivered broadly what he said he would - NI increase apart - and what he said when he described himself as a Brexity Hezza.
However, an interesting list.
I wasn't born when Thatcher came to power so I don't know where to place her really in this particular list. Higher up if you believe the Crown's portrayal of her was somewhere near accurate. But maybe it wasn't - in which case she'd be more middling.
In terms of election campaigns, they tended to be negative attacks on Labour, rather than particular promises - though it was fairly clear where she was coming from.
As far as her achievements go, she successfully addressed a number of problems left by previous government, and is at the root of many of the problems we have today. A mixed bag.
Which problems today is she at the root at?
Lack of council housing ? Individually selling at a discount to an existing tenant gives ownership & empowers the working class to move up in life but collectively it beggars councils which can't replace housing stock.
Doesn't change the total stock, though, does it?
Disclosure: my parents purchased their council house.
Comments
Lab Gain.
Lib Dem Gain.
If that is the beating intellectual heart of today´s Conservative right wingers, I can not help wondering whether the Americans, who presumably paid for much of this demonic bean feast, might be wondering whether their money has been well spent.
In any event I am beginning to think that the Tories could end up being third in the votes cast at the next GE.
As for the by elections. I do not think that the Conservatives will be looking forward to any of them, despite presumably being forewarned ahead of their Lib Dem and Labour opponents.
Korea eyes submarine deal with Canada
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=351075
Starmer will do and say whatever anyone wants him to do or say at the time in order to get to No 10.
Reading West will almost certainly go Labour I agree on current polls. Mid Bedfordshire could go LD in a by election if they really work it but their problem is Labour were second in 2019 there not them
Worked for Blair, though, didn't it? Spectacularly, if I recall.
It is the obvious thing to do.
Frictionless trade in manufacturing, where Germany had a comparative advantage, while preserving barriers in services, where we did, could have been designed to screw our industries over and benefit rEU.
And guess what happened...?
Do it if you want. I don't "disapprove" so much as think it is for most a gesture, on previously manicured mono-culture lawns that just look terrible for weeks after that first mowing in June. If you really want to help wildlife, plant specific areas of your garden for them. Alternatively, just leave a wild area all year round.
Let them stand down first at the next GE - and ideally have a minimum break - before their appointments.
Irrelevant Tory Nutter wants war with China
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/liz-truss-urges-rishi-sunak-to-describe-china-as-a-threat-to-uk-on-controversial-trip-to-taiwan/ar-AA1bhlTo?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=4c0b94f6ce9442e1bf78069f5496aae1&ei=11
Irrelevant Tory Nutter wants war with Russia.
https://news.sky.com/video/we-do-need-to-upgrade-how-much-we-spend-on-defence-says-tobias-ellwood-12882661
It's beautiful today.
If there aren't many more Labour votes to be won, but the LibDems can take 15k off the Tories with another 5k staying home, thats a LD win.
Where Labour need to be careful is not believing their own spin. Regardless of how good Starmer is, you aren't going to dislodge Tory votes to Labour in many of these seats. But they will happily vote against the Tory...
I'd probably have May at the back of this list as she was prepared to try and take unpopular decisions whilst in the seat of power (Dementia tax, May's deal) at the expense of personal political capital.
From most power hungry to least I'd go (PMs and LOTOs since 1992)
Truss > Johnson > Miliband > Sunak > Brown > Blair > Starmer = Cameron > Major > Corbyn > Hague = IDS = Smith > Howard > May.
You might have Starmer a bit higher or lower but he's quite middle of the pack on the power/duty axis I think.
I think Truss at the top narrowly ahead of Johnson is correct, there's never been a PM who so wildly overestimated themself beyond even Eden.
D&G should be an easy win for the SNP, but with all that is going on you may well be right. A few months ago it would have been a slam dunk.
Reading - Agree.
Mid Beds - You make a good point. There are lots of seats where Labour are in 2nd but can't win, whereas the LDs can, but convincing the electorate you can from 3rd is a challenge. That is harder in a GE than a by-election where the LDs can throw the kitchen sink at it. So I would still go for a LD win, BUT it is a hell of a majority and it assumes that Lab do not run a spoiler campaign and split the vote, which I don't think they will do.
Reading ought to be good for a Labour steal. Mid Beds I really cannot see falling.
So on a good day the Cons could retain two from three, which will look like a win for them.
North Shropshire shows the way.
Labour will focus heavily on Reading West.
Has he delivered ?
His elevation to the peerage is repugnant.
Given that, a few extra weapons doesn’t sound especially wacky.
1. For all their lunacy the UK right wingers are not a patch on their US variety. THere has been absolutely nothing at the Nat Con conference that would scare the US horses.
2. The Tories will not come anywhere near third at the next GE. Labour will, I believe, win and probably with a majority but there is no other party that will come anywhere near touching the Tories in terms of popular vote. Indeed the Lib Dems will probably suffer from the fact that Labour are looking and sounding reasonable.
It is a shame as it would be good to see the Tory party broken and reformed but it ain't going to happen.
Galloway for Galloway?!
Neither of these mean we want war with anyone but if the last few years have shown us anything it is that we cannot trust these countries to behave in reasonable ways and therefore we have to consider them a threat and arm against those threats.
Gammon, pick yourself off the ground, I said
Gammon, there's non-whites in your town
You are right to be unhappy
Gammon, there's a place you can go, I said
Gammon, when you're tired of the woke you can
Stay there and I'm sure you will find
Many ways to agree with Grimes
It's fun to stay with the NatCs today
It's fun to stay with the NatCs today
They have everything for old men to enjoy
You can hang out with all-white boys
It's fun to stay with the NatCs today
It's fun to stay with the NatCs today
You can say what you mean, you can rant a good deal
You can say whatever you feel
Your shallowness of thought process in this area is stupefying. You've farmed out your entire opinion to whatever orifice Rishi Sunak happens to be speaking from on any given issue.
I am not complaining about a few extra weapons but the sabre rattling rhetoric from fringe Tories wanting to be noticed.
Just because Russia proclaims something does not mean others have to follow. They have invaded a sovereign nation. Does not mean we should.
I'd quibble with quite a few of those. For instance, I'd say Blair is much less principled than Sunak, who wasn't willing to make the promises that might have caused him to beat Truss. Brown was so incoherent as PM that I've no idea what he actually believed, and I'm not sure he knew himself. Johnson I think delivered broadly what he said he would - NI increase apart - and what he said when he described himself as a Brexity Hezza.
However, an interesting list.
*I advocate Thermonuclear War with Russia, but not invasion.
In Mid-Beds it looks difficult for Labour to tacitly accept the LibDems as the main challenger - in 2017, the LDs barely saved their deposit, and even last time they were 9 points behind. If Reading W was on the same day, though, it'd be easier to portray it as a tacit reciprocal arrangement.
If there is a by-election, it may well come down to the quality (or perhaps electoral appeal) of the Tory and SNP candidates. Labour and Lib Dem are much too far behind to have a chance of winning, though some former Tories may vote Lib Dem and some former SNP may vote Labour, as neither front runner is in particularly good shape just now..
The Republic protestors were not allowed to contact the police liaison officer they had been working with who could have confirmed they were following the agreed rules.
And yet the Met spokesman can still sit in front of the committee and say the arress and holding for 16 hours was justified.
Fecking lunacy
THis\ denial above, at least, was some time ago. Now reported as not commenting either way on the Times report (when?).
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/humza-yousaf-calls-alister-jack-29385146
First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
As far as her achievements go, she successfully addressed a number of problems left by previous government, and is at the root of many of the problems we have today. A mixed bag.
So zero swing to SNP since 2019 and comfortable Tory hold in D and G
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1656382994272210953?s=20
A marginal SNP win with a resurgent Labour vote, declining Tory share and presumably a further eroded LD vote due to tactical voting would be a decent outcome for Labour I'd have thought, especially if they could leapfrog the conservatives into second place.
1) Invent some rules on the fly - which turn out to be illegal.
2) Fuck up implementing them egregiously
3) Lie about it
4) Get aggressive about people questioning their lies.
The Met spin department is more dishonest than Tory Central Office.
If we aren't prepared to confront the likes of Russia and China they will behave aggressively. It isn't complicated.
Build new council homes, introduce rent caps and end the scourge of empty homes.
We need housing for public good, not private profit.
= Jeremy Corbyn this morning
When our democracy is under attack, it’s up to the labour movement to fight back.
The Public Order Act must be repealed, now.
Jeremy Corbyn yesterday
SKS Labour not a single MP voted to repeal muttering something about letting Fascism bed in
You can argue about industrial strategy (or lack of it); education; Europe.
We have a much lower rate of empty homes in the UK than just about anywhere else, not surprisingly given the shortage of housing and the price of property.
What we need much more supply. Doesn't matter if it's multi-million pound penthouses or social housing, because the price of property is driven by supply vs demand, pure and simple. And we need most new supply in locations where it's currently lowest or demand is highest.
Individually selling at a discount to an existing tenant gives ownership & empowers the working class to move up in life but collectively it beggars councils which can't replace housing stock.
If you believe in women's suffrage, you believe in the right to protest.
If you oppose apartheid, you believe in the right to protest.
If you think our children deserve a liveable future, you believe in the right to protest.
Defend our freedoms. Repeal the Public Order Bill!
SKS Labour we will not Repeal we need to give it time to bed in
So literally 99% occupancy.
If you want to increase supply quickly ban Short term lets of houses that were built for residential purposes (i.e. have historically had a council tax rating).
Disclosure: my parents purchased their council house.