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How opinion has shifted since GE2019 – politicalbetting.com
How opinion has shifted since GE2019 – politicalbetting.com
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How opinion has shifted since GE2019 – politicalbetting.com
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What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING
However, I agree that Starmer and the Lib Dems are talking about virtually nothing at the moment, which I'm not happy about. Although Cruella and others are somewhat facile, and also tending to the slightly paranoid and Trumpite in style, and in the way they raise certain issues, not every issue they have raised is irrelevant, and at least, as you say, they're talking about something.
So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters
The Tories are just beginning what Labour went through post Blair, starting a real ideological debate on conservative principles as Labour did on socialism, in a more pure social democratic form under Brown and Ed Miliband and purer under Corbyn.
Ideology first normally doesn't win elections, except for Attlee and Thatcher but it does at least offer more intellectual discussion than power for its own sake often does
And there are people who vote for all sorts of weird reasons, as Nick P will amusingly attest (like they like the tallest candidate, or have furiously fallen out with individual parties for an array of baffling reasons.)
I think I’d price it up;
4/6 LD
2/1 Con
33/1 Greens
33/1 Lab
Depends, to an extent, on the candidates.
Anyone argue with my odds?
I have an underlying sense that he actually does quite strongly believe in a soft-left programme like Miliband's, much more than only, or at least definitely only in combination with Blairism, but it's too early to say. If I was Starmer I'd think it would make sense to combine Blairite aspirationalism with soft leftism, to cover all the bases, and so I expect that's what he'll do.
As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;
A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.
https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
Thanks, Rishi!
Plus I guess he has to be around in case Trump suffers a heart attack or something.
That would require him to have a heart.
The problem is that they - like Extinction Rebellion - turn every issue into an existential crisis. And therefore end up being laughed at.
This rather ghastly poem from 1992 was set in an English Literature exam series during Covid.
https://vcpexams.in/g23-twt3-english-poetry-the-concerned-adolescent/
None of which, if we're being honest, Mayor Kahn is responsible for.
- we should all be able to work from home
- it should be easier to strike
- something about a wealth tax, perhaps
- more lockdowns
- some culture war stuff about transsexuals and BLM, but then sometimes not, but actually yes, mostly
- cutting student fees; hang on, actually, no, we didn't mean that
- still Brexit, but not abolishing any EU laws
- extending the franchise to anyone who might vote Labour
- taxing the absolute f*ck out of private schools
There might be some other stuff, but that's what I remember.
The constituency has been pretty solidly blue since 1945. The LDs won only very narrowly in 2005/10, from a much stronger local position.
Also, the tories did pretty well, considering, in the locals.
I think the tories are likely to be value in any b/e betting contest. I’d buy at 2/1.
Unless that's shorthand for seriously nuts ?
Nothing forced the Conservatives to underfund criminal justice or border controls. These were deliberate decisions on their part. Nothing forced them to treat Brexit as a pissing contest. Nothing forced them to prioritise taxing incomes, over and above taxing capital.
Contentious, and in her case also wrapped up in Trumpite conspiracism about "Cultural Marxism" and general blanket "anti-woke", but it is the sort of issue that I think is worth raising in the current climate, and as it's not the sort of thing I'd expect either of the opposition parties to raise, it does serve some sort of useful purpose, I think.
In Chesham and Amersham, they fell from 55.4% to 35.5%.
In North Shropshire, they dropped from 62.7% to 31.6%.
In Tiverton and Honiton, it was 53.1% to 38.4%.
In Wakefield, from 47.3% to 30.3%.
Only in Old Bexley & Sidcup did the Conservative vote hold up reasonably well, dropping just 13%.
But you could make the case that the government is less popular now than it was, and also that - if the LibDems are the major challengers - then the Conservative vote share tends to drop more.
The Conservatives would probably need to see their vote drop no more than 15%. Any more than that, and they'd probably be done for.
https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/jenkins-wants-inquiry-immunity/
"Gareth Jenkins, the former Fujitsu engineer who ha become a person of interest to the Metropolitan Police, has demanded certain assurances from the Post Office Horizon IT inquiry before he gives evidence.
Jenkins, the subject of the first Clarke Advice and a spectre at the feast during the Bates v Post Office litigation wants an undertaking from the Attorney General that he will not be criminally prosecuted over any testimony he gives to the inquiry.
This is not an unheard-of request. It was put to use recently in the ongoing Grenfell inquiry. If a potential witness asks for an ‘Attorney General’s undertaking’, and it is supported by the inquiry chair, then the AG makes a decision."
https://news.sky.com/story/desperate-parents-are-stealing-baby-formula-to-keep-their-children-fed-12881338
Have you ever watched a debate in another party's conference or are you as usual talking out of your arse.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/16/michael-gove-highlights-civility-over-culture-wars-in-speech-to-natcon
These kinds of stories are not just the result of inflation. I live in hope that Therese Coffey will have an epiphany from her religious convictions one night, and realise how much damage all her repression of successive DWP enquiries into her failed welfare policies, punishment and withdrawal of benefits, sanctioning of people, Osborne's bedroom taxes and freezing of benefits, has done.
https://twitter.com/archrose90/status/1658525742907392006?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Savanta UK
@Savanta_UK
·
3h
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention
📈17pt Labour lead - Savanta's highest since early February
🌹Lab 46 (=)
🌳Con 29 (-1)
🔶LD 9 (=)
➡️Reform 5 (=)
🎗️SNP 3 (-1)
🌍Gre 3 (=)
⬜️Other 4 (=)
2,214 UK adults, 12-14 May
(chg from 5-7)
I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.
I can't see it.
My heart sunk when I heard a Tory MP using the term cultural Marxism. Usually the preserve of conspiracy theorists on Twitter.
https://tinyurl.com/2ymyv8ht
Only way it might happen is with PR
Meanwhile, most of us would just like competent and sane governance - in my case, from the left of course.
As bad things got under Corbyn, at least the moderates in Labour continued to be a majority of the PLP. Not the case with the Tories.
2m
Amazing how many of Sunak's 'achievements' are basically a slow, painful reboot of things (often inferior versions of things) the UK had before Brexit and threw away.
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1658544962458337281
As expected, the LD bubble quickly popped in this week's Redfield & Wilton but interestingly the five point drop didn't go mostly to Labour as I had expected but to Reform (among others).
The England sub sample had Labour on 43%, the Conservatives on 29%, the Liberal Democrats on 12%, Reform on 8%, Green on 6% and others on 2%
The 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour compares with the 14.25% swing calculated from Opinium and on UNS would mean 170 Conservative losses before tactical voting.
As always, a bucket of salt required and some interesting numbers among the sub samples.
Today we've had Deltapoll with a solid 16-point lead for Labour nationally and More in Common who don't poll that often - the publicised headline figures of 42-31-13 are actually taking out the DKs, the WNVs and those who, in the likelihood to vote, were 1-6 so it's a different measurement to that used by other pollsters.
Keeping in all those expressing a likelihood to vote (just excluding the DKs and the WNVs) the figures become 42-30-12. Men have Labour ahead by 10 and women have Labour ahead by 13.
We've also just had Survation being issued which is 46-29-9 so a little disappointing for the LDs to be back into single figures.
The four polls are all GB polls so the Conservative to Labour swings are as follows:
Redfield & Wilton: 13%
Deltapoll: 13.5%
More in Common: 12%
Survation: 15%
Not a huge difference across them with the Conservative to Liberal Democrat swing averaging out at 8%.
That suggest on UNS Conservative losses of between 150 and 180 seats - of course that doesn't allow for tactical voting.
Lab 42 (-2)
Con 31 (+1)
LD 13 (+3)
Grn 5 (-1)
Ref 5 (=)
SNP 3 (=)
Other 2 (=)
2,017 GB adults, May 12-15
Changes wrt April 6-11
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/research/voting-intention-may-2023/
My teacher suggested that eight pages on 'Shakespeare wouldn't have had much of a plot without it, would he?' got a little tedious.
Labour need to keep more of an eye on their left, and particularly civil liberies flanks, I think, otherwise they may fall into the later New Labour's trap with the LD's from around 2005 onwards.Hate to say i told you so, but..
"White people do not exist in a special state of sin or collective guilt," said @SuellaBraverman
. Do you think a British home secretary should say this? Do you understand why she feels compelled to say this? Did you ever expect a British home secretary to say this?
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1658128617010786304
More I don't see why she shouldn't be able to say it, and she has done much worse than that statement, taken by itself, does.
(2) Truss is batshit crazy. With all his faults, Sunak isn't.
As a "marxist liberal" or should that be "liberal marxist", I shouldn't have too many qualms but unfortunately I do. The notion of free speech, rather like EU membership, has only two credible positions - you're either for it or against it. As with our half-hearted rebate-obsessed membership of the EU, Freedom of Speech either means you're completely opposed and have no problem shutting down opinions with which you disagree or you're completely in favour which means accepting the right to offend and be offended.
The Right to Offend is one of those tricky ones - we can all promise to be nice to each other but in the real world as soon as you bring in legislation or control to restrict anyone's right to freedom of speech, you're compromising that freedom for everyone.
I don't like hate speech, I don't like speech which sets out deliberately to offend or provoke or incite or divide but I'm forced to accept these are aspects of the human condition and whether I like them or not, they exist and always will exist. I'm also reminded jaw-jaw is better than war-war and allowing the right to vent verbally is preferable to the wrong of acting physically.
It's not comfortable but I suspect it's not meant to be - challenging those who wish to spread division and hate isn't easy because rational argument rarely works. They can be ignored - perhaps the first line of defence - and be left to shout into the darkness. That doesn't mean rational counter-argument can't and shouldn't be tried but in the expectation it won't have an impact.
Indeed before Truss the only Tory leader not elected by most Tory MPs was IDS, again who was elected by a majority of party members alone.
(Tugendhat was the real moderate in the 2022 Tory leadership vote along with Hunt)
Nick Griffin was invited on Question Time once, and was essentially laughed off the stage.
Nigel Fucking Farage was invited on time and again, and lauded for it, despite saying things that were at least as batshit crazy as Griffin.
Why wasn't he ridiculed everywhere he went? Why did anyone take him seriously, ever?
As we saw with Labour, over time and especially in Opposition, the language will become more vitriolic between the groups. Today for me marks the first step on a road toward a possible schism and IF the Conservatives come to the conclusion they can't win as National Conservatives, where is the road back to One Nation?
This tweet from someone who vaguely knew him at school is typical of the genre.
https://twitter.com/nicholaspegg/status/1658409034418995200?s=46
The R&W GB polling yesterday had a swing of 13% suggesting the Conservatives aren't quite as badly off in other parts of the country.
We'll get a Blue Wall poll next week just as a comparison.
But, for some reason, people don't seem to notice it.