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These numbers make the voting ID rule hard to justify – politicalbetting.com

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  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    So the next US bank with obvious problems and a share run is Pacwest.

    Anyone care to guess which firm audits them - if you guessed KPMG you read my post earlier regarding the previous defaulting banks.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747
    Scottish News.
    Cross-over on the list - which determines who actually gets the most MSPs. Would be a Unionist majority.

    New Scottish Parliament poll, Redfield & Wilton 30 Apr - 2 May (changes v 31 Mar - 1 Apr):

    List:
    Lab ~ 27% (+3)
    SNP ~ 25% (-5)
    Con ~ 19% (nc)
    Grn ~ 13% (+2)
    LD ~ 10% (-3)
    Alba ~ 2% (+2)
    RUK ~ 2% (nc)

    Const:
    SNP ~ 36% (-2)
    Lab ~ 32% (+4)
    Con ~ 18% (nc)
    LD ~ 8% (-2)
    Grn ~ 2% (-1)
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747

    Scottish News.
    Cross-over on the list - which determines who actually gets the most MSPs. Would be a Unionist majority.

    New Scottish Parliament poll, Redfield & Wilton 30 Apr - 2 May (changes v 31 Mar - 1 Apr):

    List:
    Lab ~ 27% (+3)
    SNP ~ 25% (-5)
    Con ~ 19% (nc)
    Grn ~ 13% (+2)
    LD ~ 10% (-3)
    Alba ~ 2% (+2)
    RUK ~ 2% (nc)

    Const:
    SNP ~ 36% (-2)
    Lab ~ 32% (+4)
    Con ~ 18% (nc)
    LD ~ 8% (-2)
    Grn ~ 2% (-1)

    Projecting Redfield & Wilton 30 Apr - 2 May into seats (changes v 31 Mar - 1 Apr / 2021):

    Labour ~ 38 (+8 / +16)
    SNP ~ 37 (-14 / -27)
    Conservative ~ 25 (+2 / -6)
    Green ~ 17 (+7 /+9)
    Lib Dem ~ 12 (-3 / +8)

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1653845448703057920
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited May 2023
    I don't believe the polls showing Canadians to be in favour of a republic, in the sense that if it actually came to a referendum, most of them would vote against a republic, not because they love the monarchy particularly but because they would dislike the idea of a politician from a different political party to the one they support getting the job.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564

    The SNP in-fighting is getting extraordinarily vicious. Yousaf considering publishing a report on alleged bullying by Fergus Ewing during his tenure as a minister. Ewing has been one of the MSP's most contemptuous of Yousaf and the SNP alliance with the Greens.

    For those not conversant with the minutiae of SNP history, the Ewings are the nearest thing the Nats have to royalty. His Mum is Winnie, one of the first SNP MPs, and his sister is also a member at Holyrood.

    https://news.stv.tv/politics/humza-yousaf-to-look-at-releasing-bullying-report-into-former-minister-fergus-ewing

    The best line on the SNP's woes was "from Winnie Ewing to Winnegbagos...."
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    kjh said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    On matters more immediate, the Survation local election numbers would, if accurate, be very poor for the Conservatives and in truth uninspiring for Labour with the Liberal Democrats and Greens doing well.

    I'm not entirely convinced but we'll see if those who are predicting Conservative losses at or below 500 are doing anything other than blowing smoke.

    “those who are predicting Conservative losses at or below 500 are doing anything other than blowing smoke.”

    They are basing it on what happened in 2019 a high watershed for libdems and greens and under 30 PNE for Tories, and what has happened historically, especially in this set of elections.

    But this as an exceptional period of politics, a LLG of 60 plus out to get the Tories, the most unprecedented credit crunch ever.
    I expect the lib dems to be the big winners tomorrow and a very bad night for the conservatives

    I hope so as if so I will win my fun charity bet with @HYUFD. In fairness to HYUFD he made the sensible bet and I made the risky one, so will be chuffed if it comes off, but my gut from this neck of the woods encouraged me even if we did make big gains here last time.
    I think LDs will do ok tomorrow. Better than the polls suggest. But not enough to 'go back to your constituencies and prepare for government '. 👍
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't believe the polls showing Canadians to be in favour of a republic, in the sense that if it actually came to a referendum, most of them would vote against a republic, not because they love the monarchy particularly but because they would dislike the idea of a politician from a different political party to the one they support getting the job.

    Zero chance of a referendum anyway as both the Canadian Liberals and Conservatives back retaining the monarchy
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    The Lib Dems often act as a think tank for future Labour (and occasionally Tory) policies, so look out for the 24 hour booking line appearing in Labour pledges soon:

    https://twitter.com/libdems/status/1653821732501725193?s=46

    Will a legal right to see a GP in a week help if we don't have the capability to deliver it?
    It’s like a Rishi pledge. Focus groups well but no chance of it actually happening.
    My local GP surgery makes it as hard as possible to see them so people give up...
    Is that what gave the Tories the idea about voter ID ?
    I think the difference is that demand for GP services exceeds availability. I suspect that most polling stations will be quiet tomorrow.

    I shall be queuing up at 7am.
    With enthusiasm and photo ID.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    kjh said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    On matters more immediate, the Survation local election numbers would, if accurate, be very poor for the Conservatives and in truth uninspiring for Labour with the Liberal Democrats and Greens doing well.

    I'm not entirely convinced but we'll see if those who are predicting Conservative losses at or below 500 are doing anything other than blowing smoke.

    “those who are predicting Conservative losses at or below 500 are doing anything other than blowing smoke.”

    They are basing it on what happened in 2019 a high watershed for libdems and greens and under 30 PNE for Tories, and what has happened historically, especially in this set of elections.

    But this as an exceptional period of politics, a LLG of 60 plus out to get the Tories, the most unprecedented credit crunch ever.
    I expect the lib dems to be the big winners tomorrow and a very bad night for the conservatives

    I hope so as if so I will win my fun charity bet with @HYUFD. In fairness to HYUFD he made the sensible bet and I made the risky one, so will be chuffed if it comes off, but my gut from this neck of the woods encouraged me even if we did make big gains here last time.
    It will be close either way, I expect some LD gains in Tory councils balanced by Tory gains from LDs in councils the LDs gained from the Tories in 2019 or 2022
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited May 2023
    Allister Heath's latest article.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/03/war-on-cash-existential-threat-financial-independence/

    "The war on cash poses an existential threat to our financial independence
    It’s terrible for the elderly, and risks giving massive power to social engineers and faceless bureaucrats"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Donald Trump on Biden's non attendance at the coronation 'He said: 'I think that it's hard for him to do it physically. I think, getting over here for him.

    'He's got a lot of things going and a lot of strange things happen. But certainly he should be here as a representative of our country. I was surprised when I heard that he wasn't coming.

    'You would think he would be here, he'll be in Delaware where he spends a lot of time, he spent a lot of time there during the election.

    'So I don't know, but I was very surprised to see I think it's very disrespectful for him not to be.'

    He added: 'That man is incompetent, and it's a shame.

    'He can't even come to your Coronation as a country, and your Coronation's a big event.

    'When you have somebody that's going to be sleeping instead of coming to the coronation as president of the United States, I think it's a bad thing

    When asked by Farage whether he would have attended if he was president, Trump said: 'I would.'

    He added: 'I think it's a very important event. I think it's a great thing. A lot of people talk about the monarchy should you have it, should you not, I think it's a fantastic thing. It holds your country together largely.'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12043173/Donald-Trump-blasts-Meghan-Markle-disrespecting-Queen.html
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    So just to confirm. Sue Gray started talking to Labour after her report.

    So yet again Starmer told the truth.

    More at 10
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    I think I had quick whip through it once.
    It didn’t draw you in and tie you down for long then.
    He got to the bottom of it
    My copy got bent somehow. I’m still trying to work out all the kinks
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,628
    edited May 2023
    eek said:

    So the next US bank with obvious problems and a share run is Pacwest.

    Anyone care to guess which firm audits them - if you guessed KPMG you read my post earlier regarding the previous defaulting banks.

    KPMG, we're strong as can be
    A dream of power and energy
    We go for the gold
    Together we hold on to our vision of global strategy.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCvKXgp-Awo
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    TimS said:

    No wonder they didn’t bother publishing the Sue Grey enquiry findings yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/daaronovitch/status/1653800751116722178?s=46

    Another currygate.

    Surprised Big G didn't post this.
    Big John Owls, not Big G.
    Good evening

    I have not subscribed to the opinion that some in the conservative party have, that Sue Gray's report was influenced by her connections with labour.

    However, it seems she was approached by Starmer in October and the point that is controversial is that her discussions with Starmer may be in breach of the civil service code and I suggest that it is wise to wait to see the report due shortly which will receive plenty of coverage in the media, not least Sky

    On the subject of Sky, Sam Coates of posted this today which summarises the position as of now

    https://news.sky.com/story/sue-gray-labour-held-talks-with-senior-civil-servant-for-at-least-four-months-before-chief-of-staff-role-announced-12872234
    The Tories and their client media have been saying that its a political stutch-up. Except that the report into Boris was done and dusted months before the first approach from Starmer.

    Which means the scandal is that Ed Llewlyn stepped straight from the civil service to being David Cameron's Chief of Staff...
    Indeed some have and they are wrong

    Sue Gray's report was quite lenient for Johnson and I do not question its veracity

    The question that is relevant is whether Starmer and Sue Gray entered discussions on her appointment in breach of the civil service code and on that subject it will become public knowledge soon enough and if she did any gardening leave she may have to take
    The breach being? It seems the Tories claiming the breach is merely if you want to recruit a senior civil servant you need to approach government first, not tap them up? Maybe that is a breach, but not a whopper of a breach, also one the Tories will always have to have strictly followed or else this blows up in their face, certainly not enough a breach to demand it must be more than 6 months gardening leave between jobs do you think?
    I have no idea what the recommendation will be if the report finds against Sue Gray
    Fair play. When PB said Big G please explain, you fronted up and explained. 🙂

    Sue and Starmer talking, without Starmer clearing those talks first with government is a breach of the code I am sure. But only a minor breach, no 2 year gardening leave can be justified from that, we all know that, and this overhyped Graygate has fizzled out, in truth
    I came under considerable attack on simply stating what I considered a fair response

    I reiterate I believe her report into Johnson was fair and indeed lenient and was completed before her talks with Starmer

    There are some in the conservative party who are trying to ludicrously claim it negates her report and I reject that100%

    The question relates to whether in discussing her appointment to Starmer and labour was in breach of civil service rules and that will be answered shortly

    The question of gardening leave will follow the report

    I would just say pilling into a fellow poster who may have a more nuanced opinion than some can be unfair
    It’s true. Soon as you posted, everyone came back with an opinion.

    But where we don’t know the outcome, you do concede there are breaches and then there are breaches of code, “you didn’t ask for permission first” being very minor - and the length of gardening leave, largely there for commercial consideration, defence PS to defence industry for example, utterly absent in Civil Service to political party role moves, so will need something remarkable we havn’t or heard of yet to be longer than standard 6 months?
    We are much on the same page on this
    I’m not sure we’re even on the same report.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/03/first-edition-sue-gray-keir-starmer-labour-partygate
    … Yesterday’s update was on the Cabinet Office inquiry; there is no date for when Acoba will reach its conclusion.

    Acoba is the body with responsibility for assessing new jobs for senior civil servants, as well as former ministers, and has the power to suggest a cooling-off period of between three months and two years if there are concerns about any conflict of interest. Nobody disputes that it should have a say over Gray’s appointment.

    But the Cabinet Office inquiry was less conventional, and more controversial. “There’s no precedent for this sort of investigation for someone who’s already left the civil service,” Pippa said. “And there are senior civil servants who were concerned about such a politically charged report being released just before the local elections.”

    Nonetheless, detailed briefing that the Cabinet Office had concluded that “Sue Gray held secret talks with [Starmer] while working for the team advising the Commons partygate investigation” appeared in advance. And yet the actual update from Oliver Dowden said nothing of the kind, but noted that Gray had declined to participate and said that there was an obligation “to maintain confidentiality towards an individual former employee”...
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    The Lib Dems often act as a think tank for future Labour (and occasionally Tory) policies, so look out for the 24 hour booking line appearing in Labour pledges soon:

    https://twitter.com/libdems/status/1653821732501725193?s=46

    Will a legal right to see a GP in a week help if we don't have the capability to deliver it?
    It’s like a Rishi pledge. Focus groups well but no chance of it actually happening.
    My local GP surgery makes it as hard as possible to see them so people give up...
    Is that what gave the Tories the idea about voter ID ?
    I think the difference is that demand for GP services exceeds availability. I suspect that most polling stations will be quiet tomorrow.

    I shall be queuing up at 7am.
    With enthusiasm and photo ID.
    I won't be queuing up cos there are no elections in my region 👍
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    No wonder they didn’t bother publishing the Sue Grey enquiry findings yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/daaronovitch/status/1653800751116722178?s=46

    Another currygate.

    Surprised Big G didn't post this.
    Big John Owls, not Big G.
    Good evening

    I have not subscribed to the opinion that some in the conservative party have, that Sue Gray's report was influenced by her connections with labour.

    However, it seems she was approached by Starmer in October and the point that is controversial is that her discussions with Starmer may be in breach of the civil service code and I suggest that it is wise to wait to see the report due shortly which will receive plenty of coverage in the media, not least Sky

    On the subject of Sky, Sam Coates of posted this today which summarises the position as of now

    https://news.sky.com/story/sue-gray-labour-held-talks-with-senior-civil-servant-for-at-least-four-months-before-chief-of-staff-role-announced-12872234
    The Tories and their client media have been saying that its a political stutch-up. Except that the report into Boris was done and dusted months before the first approach from Starmer.

    Which means the scandal is that Ed Llewlyn stepped straight from the civil service to being David Cameron's Chief of Staff...
    Indeed some have and they are wrong

    Sue Gray's report was quite lenient for Johnson and I do not question its veracity

    The question that is relevant is whether Starmer and Sue Gray entered discussions on her appointment in breach of the civil service code and on that subject it will become public knowledge soon enough and if she did any gardening leave she may have to take
    The breach being? It seems the Tories claiming the breach is merely if you want to recruit a senior civil servant you need to approach government first, not tap them up? Maybe that is a breach, but not a whopper of a breach, also one the Tories will always have to have strictly followed or else this blows up in their face, certainly not enough a breach to demand it must be more than 6 months gardening leave between jobs do you think?
    I have no idea what the recommendation will be if the report finds against Sue Gray
    Fair play. When PB said Big G please explain, you fronted up and explained. 🙂

    Sue and Starmer talking, without Starmer clearing those talks first with government is a breach of the code I am sure. But only a minor breach, no 2 year gardening leave can be justified from that, we all know that, and this overhyped Graygate has fizzled out, in truth
    I came under considerable attack on simply stating what I considered a fair response

    I reiterate I believe her report into Johnson was fair and indeed lenient and was completed before her talks with Starmer

    There are some in the conservative party who are trying to ludicrously claim it negates her report and I reject that100%

    The question relates to whether in discussing her appointment to Starmer and labour was in breach of civil service rules and that will be answered shortly

    The question of gardening leave will follow the report

    I would just say pilling into a fellow poster who may have a more nuanced opinion than some can be unfair
    It’s true. Soon as you posted, everyone came back with an opinion.

    But where we don’t know the outcome, you do concede there are breaches and then there are breaches of code, “you didn’t ask for permission first” being very minor - and the length of gardening leave, largely there for commercial consideration, defence PS to defence industry for example, utterly absent in Civil Service to political party role moves, so will need something remarkable we havn’t or heard of yet to be longer than standard 6 months?
    We are much on the same page on this
    I’m not sure we’re even on the same report.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/03/first-edition-sue-gray-keir-starmer-labour-partygate
    … Yesterday’s update was on the Cabinet Office inquiry; there is no date for when Acoba will reach its conclusion.

    Acoba is the body with responsibility for assessing new jobs for senior civil servants, as well as former ministers, and has the power to suggest a cooling-off period of between three months and two years if there are concerns about any conflict of interest. Nobody disputes that it should have a say over Gray’s appointment.

    But the Cabinet Office inquiry was less conventional, and more controversial. “There’s no precedent for this sort of investigation for someone who’s already left the civil service,” Pippa said. “And there are senior civil servants who were concerned about such a politically charged report being released just before the local elections.”

    Nonetheless, detailed briefing that the Cabinet Office had concluded that “Sue Gray held secret talks with [Starmer] while working for the team advising the Commons partygate investigation” appeared in advance. And yet the actual update from Oliver Dowden said nothing of the kind, but noted that Gray had declined to participate and said that there was an obligation “to maintain confidentiality towards an individual former employee”...
    I do not accept the meme
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    eek said:

    So the next US bank with obvious problems and a share run is Pacwest.

    Anyone care to guess which firm audits them - if you guessed KPMG you read my post earlier regarding the previous defaulting banks.

    Is the other thing they have in common that they all took advantage of Trump’s relaxation of banking regulations ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    HYUFD said:

    Donald Trump on Biden's non attendance at the coronation 'He said: 'I think that it's hard for him to do it physically. I think, getting over here for him.

    'He's got a lot of things going and a lot of strange things happen. But certainly he should be here as a representative of our country. I was surprised when I heard that he wasn't coming.

    'You would think he would be here, he'll be in Delaware where he spends a lot of time, he spent a lot of time there during the election.

    'So I don't know, but I was very surprised to see I think it's very disrespectful for him not to be.'

    He added: 'That man is incompetent, and it's a shame.

    'He can't even come to your Coronation as a country, and your Coronation's a big event.

    'When you have somebody that's going to be sleeping instead of coming to the coronation as president of the United States, I think it's a bad thing

    When asked by Farage whether he would have attended if he was president, Trump said: 'I would.'

    He added: 'I think it's a very important event. I think it's a great thing. A lot of people talk about the monarchy should you have it, should you not, I think it's a fantastic thing. It holds your country together largely.'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12043173/Donald-Trump-blasts-Meghan-Markle-disrespecting-Queen.html

    Trump can’t be there for personal reasons; he wasn’t invited.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    edited May 2023
    I see that the Lib Dems, who eschew populism, are now being populist:

    "With the rising cost of a weekly shop adding to pressure on households across the country, the Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, called on the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to investigate whether any profiteering was taking place among supermarkets and food multinationals."

    (Sainsbury's most recent results: margin of 3%)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    edited May 2023

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    It’s an omen! Of a fruity king, or smooth operator.

    Or check best before date.
    That's totally bananas!
    A teenage favourite :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7gRi2dn74s

    This was playing in the pub just now, as people shouted and swore about Sue Gray, There was one young woman who was literally shaking with fury, and I felt concerned for her and her child, and so tried to comisserate.
    Graygate all over the front pages again. Wall to wall. It’s like the coronation isn’t happening to concentrate on the publication of this report, which is annoying me no end. We will be the most corrupt government in the world if Starmer gets in. He has literally no manners or respect for rules.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited May 2023
    The closest poll we've had for a long time, (although it wasn't reported for about 10 days).

    "Savanta

    🌹Lab 42 (-3)
    🌳Con 31 (=)
    🔶LD 9 (+1)
    ➡️Ref 7 (+2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    🌍Gre 3 (=)
    ⬜️Oth 5 (+1)

    2,156 UK adults, 21-23 April"

    https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1653772452600717312
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Andy_JS said:

    The closest poll we've had for a long time, (although it wasn't reported for about 10 days).

    "Savanta

    🌹Lab 42 (-3)
    🌳Con 31 (=)
    🔶LD 9 (+1)
    ➡️Ref 7 (+2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    🌍Gre 3 (=)
    ⬜️Oth 5 (+1)

    2,156 UK adults, 21-23 April"

    https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1653772452600717312

    Outlier
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Andy_JS said:

    The closest poll we've had for a long time, (although it wasn't reported for about 10 days).

    "Savanta

    🌹Lab 42 (-3)
    🌳Con 31 (=)
    🔶LD 9 (+1)
    ➡️Ref 7 (+2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    🌍Gre 3 (=)
    ⬜️Oth 5 (+1)

    2,156 UK adults, 21-23 April"

    https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1653772452600717312

    "Hilariously out of date".
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Dialup said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The closest poll we've had for a long time, (although it wasn't reported for about 10 days).

    "Savanta

    🌹Lab 42 (-3)
    🌳Con 31 (=)
    🔶LD 9 (+1)
    ➡️Ref 7 (+2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    🌍Gre 3 (=)
    ⬜️Oth 5 (+1)

    2,156 UK adults, 21-23 April"

    https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1653772452600717312

    Outlier
    This was posted earlier as a reference for the next Savanta, so why has it been reposted without caveat?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    You look nothing like Steven Tyler or Todd Rundgren!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Andy_JS said:

    The closest poll we've had for a long time, (although it wasn't reported for about 10 days).

    "Savanta

    🌹Lab 42 (-3)
    🌳Con 31 (=)
    🔶LD 9 (+1)
    ➡️Ref 7 (+2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    🌍Gre 3 (=)
    ⬜️Oth 5 (+1)

    2,156 UK adults, 21-23 April"

    https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1653772452600717312


    It's bizarre. Why go the trouble of doing a voting intention poll and then taking two weeks to make it public? 🤷‍♂️
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    PacWest Bancorp down 60% in after hours trading:

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/PACW:NASDAQ?hl=en

    One a week?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    No wonder they didn’t bother publishing the Sue Grey enquiry findings yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/daaronovitch/status/1653800751116722178?s=46

    Another currygate.

    Surprised Big G didn't post this.
    Big John Owls, not Big G.
    Good evening

    I have not subscribed to the opinion that some in the conservative party have, that Sue Gray's report was influenced by her connections with labour.

    However, it seems she was approached by Starmer in October and the point that is controversial is that her discussions with Starmer may be in breach of the civil service code and I suggest that it is wise to wait to see the report due shortly which will receive plenty of coverage in the media, not least Sky

    On the subject of Sky, Sam Coates of posted this today which summarises the position as of now

    https://news.sky.com/story/sue-gray-labour-held-talks-with-senior-civil-servant-for-at-least-four-months-before-chief-of-staff-role-announced-12872234
    The Tories and their client media have been saying that its a political stutch-up. Except that the report into Boris was done and dusted months before the first approach from Starmer.

    Which means the scandal is that Ed Llewlyn stepped straight from the civil service to being David Cameron's Chief of Staff...
    Indeed some have and they are wrong

    Sue Gray's report was quite lenient for Johnson and I do not question its veracity

    The question that is relevant is whether Starmer and Sue Gray entered discussions on her appointment in breach of the civil service code and on that subject it will become public knowledge soon enough and if she did any gardening leave she may have to take
    The breach being? It seems the Tories claiming the breach is merely if you want to recruit a senior civil servant you need to approach government first, not tap them up? Maybe that is a breach, but not a whopper of a breach, also one the Tories will always have to have strictly followed or else this blows up in their face, certainly not enough a breach to demand it must be more than 6 months gardening leave between jobs do you think?
    I have no idea what the recommendation will be if the report finds against Sue Gray
    Fair play. When PB said Big G please explain, you fronted up and explained. 🙂

    Sue and Starmer talking, without Starmer clearing those talks first with government is a breach of the code I am sure. But only a minor breach, no 2 year gardening leave can be justified from that, we all know that, and this overhyped Graygate has fizzled out, in truth
    I came under considerable attack on simply stating what I considered a fair response

    I reiterate I believe her report into Johnson was fair and indeed lenient and was completed before her talks with Starmer

    There are some in the conservative party who are trying to ludicrously claim it negates her report and I reject that100%

    The question relates to whether in discussing her appointment to Starmer and labour was in breach of civil service rules and that will be answered shortly

    The question of gardening leave will follow the report

    I would just say pilling into a fellow poster who may have a more nuanced opinion than some can be unfair
    It’s true. Soon as you posted, everyone came back with an opinion.

    But where we don’t know the outcome, you do concede there are breaches and then there are breaches of code, “you didn’t ask for permission first” being very minor - and the length of gardening leave, largely there for commercial consideration, defence PS to defence industry for example, utterly absent in Civil Service to political party role moves, so will need something remarkable we havn’t or heard of yet to be longer than standard 6 months?
    We are much on the same page on this
    I’m not sure we’re even on the same report.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/03/first-edition-sue-gray-keir-starmer-labour-partygate
    … Yesterday’s update was on the Cabinet Office inquiry; there is no date for when Acoba will reach its conclusion.

    Acoba is the body with responsibility for assessing new jobs for senior civil servants, as well as former ministers, and has the power to suggest a cooling-off period of between three months and two years if there are concerns about any conflict of interest. Nobody disputes that it should have a say over Gray’s appointment.

    But the Cabinet Office inquiry was less conventional, and more controversial. “There’s no precedent for this sort of investigation for someone who’s already left the civil service,” Pippa said. “And there are senior civil servants who were concerned about such a politically charged report being released just before the local elections.”

    Nonetheless, detailed briefing that the Cabinet Office had concluded that “Sue Gray held secret talks with [Starmer] while working for the team advising the Commons partygate investigation” appeared in advance. And yet the actual update from Oliver Dowden said nothing of the kind, but noted that Gray had declined to participate and said that there was an obligation “to maintain confidentiality towards an individual former employee”...
    So the Cabinet Office "inquiry" was - or rather is - political hackery & cheap trickery from the word go?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    carnforth said:

    I see that the Lib Dems, who eschew populism, are now being populist:

    "With the rising cost of a weekly shop adding to pressure on households across the country, the Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, called on the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to investigate whether any profiteering was taking place among supermarkets and food multinationals."

    (Sainsbury's most recent results: margin of 3%)

    The RAC are certainly calling out profiteering on car fuel on front of the ft. Meanwhile the front of the times carries a blue on blue attack on the government for being short termist and making the Tories party of nimbyism. After the local election drubbing will be more blue on blue attacks on Sunak and his government, likely saying similar to this, wrong policies, short term policies, not brave enough policies - the government response will be, we are listening, we will improve our communication and deliver on the priorities of the voters.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    Are you sure your "bearskins" are for real? Odds they're really rabbitskins WAY more than 19 out of 20!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,139
    edited May 2023

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    I must say I do like this photo. It reminds me of some of your best Penny Mordaunt swimsuit pics...er ahem ;.)
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587

    carnforth said:

    I see that the Lib Dems, who eschew populism, are now being populist:

    "With the rising cost of a weekly shop adding to pressure on households across the country, the Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, called on the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to investigate whether any profiteering was taking place among supermarkets and food multinationals."

    (Sainsbury's most recent results: margin of 3%)

    The RAC are certainly calling out profiteering on car fuel on front of the ft. Meanwhile the front of the times carries a blue on blue attack on the government for being short termist and making the Tories party of nimbyism. After the local election drubbing will be more blue on blue attacks on Sunak and his government, likely saying similar to this, wrong policies, short term policies, not brave enough policies - the government response will be, we are listening, we will improve our communication and deliver on the priorities of the voters.
    The RAC don't complain when prices are on the way up and forecourt prices are kept down, there being a lag on the price rises coming through. When the same lag happens, when prices are on the way down, they issue press releases decrying it, and journalists fall for it.

    It's all just to keep the name RAC in the public mind.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Donald Trump on Biden's non attendance at the coronation 'He said: 'I think that it's hard for him to do it physically. I think, getting over here for him.

    'He's got a lot of things going and a lot of strange things happen. But certainly he should be here as a representative of our country. I was surprised when I heard that he wasn't coming.

    'You would think he would be here, he'll be in Delaware where he spends a lot of time, he spent a lot of time there during the election.

    'So I don't know, but I was very surprised to see I think it's very disrespectful for him not to be.'

    He added: 'That man is incompetent, and it's a shame.

    'He can't even come to your Coronation as a country, and your Coronation's a big event.

    'When you have somebody that's going to be sleeping instead of coming to the coronation as president of the United States, I think it's a bad thing

    When asked by Farage whether he would have attended if he was president, Trump said: 'I would.'

    He added: 'I think it's a very important event. I think it's a great thing. A lot of people talk about the monarchy should you have it, should you not, I think it's a fantastic thing. It holds your country together largely.'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12043173/Donald-Trump-blasts-Meghan-Markle-disrespecting-Queen.html

    Trump can’t be there for personal reasons; he wasn’t invited.
    So the man who said the late Queen "kissed my ass" is the DM's arbiter of royal etiquette?

    Or does the word "disrespecting" have a different meaning in UK than USA?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    We have had voter ID requirements in Northern Ireland for years. Its not exactly a burden, just get on with it.

    Meanwhile lots of speculation over exactly what that UAV attack on the Kremlin was about.

    1. Ukraine can attack that deep into Russia. There are multiple Ukrainian agencies who could give it a crack and who have links with local sympathisers on the ground.
    2. Its unlikely the UAVs were launched from Ukraine, they seem a bit small
    3. The Russian provocation idea only sounds good if you want the embarassment of admitting you cant shoot down two drones coming at your seat of power, and a location that, on paper, has plenty of air defences around it. It is also mitigated by the fact that the Russian authorities didnt exactly acknowledge it super quick. Signs of a bit of fakery are rapid acknowledgement, finger pointing and production of evidence. If it was such a move by Russia it appears remarkably unclear in its objective.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    Which councils will be declaring Thursday night (not mine)?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    What about something like this:

    Boudicca costume

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuyhOTHbJJ8
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    No wonder they didn’t bother publishing the Sue Grey enquiry findings yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/daaronovitch/status/1653800751116722178?s=46

    Another currygate.

    Surprised Big G didn't post this.
    Big John Owls, not Big G.
    Good evening

    I have not subscribed to the opinion that some in the conservative party have, that Sue Gray's report was influenced by her connections with labour.

    However, it seems she was approached by Starmer in October and the point that is controversial is that her discussions with Starmer may be in breach of the civil service code and I suggest that it is wise to wait to see the report due shortly which will receive plenty of coverage in the media, not least Sky

    On the subject of Sky, Sam Coates of posted this today which summarises the position as of now

    https://news.sky.com/story/sue-gray-labour-held-talks-with-senior-civil-servant-for-at-least-four-months-before-chief-of-staff-role-announced-12872234
    The Tories and their client media have been saying that its a political stutch-up. Except that the report into Boris was done and dusted months before the first approach from Starmer.

    Which means the scandal is that Ed Llewlyn stepped straight from the civil service to being David Cameron's Chief of Staff...
    Indeed some have and they are wrong

    Sue Gray's report was quite lenient for Johnson and I do not question its veracity

    The question that is relevant is whether Starmer and Sue Gray entered discussions on her appointment in breach of the civil service code and on that subject it will become public knowledge soon enough and if she did any gardening leave she may have to take
    The breach being? It seems the Tories claiming the breach is merely if you want to recruit a senior civil servant you need to approach government first, not tap them up? Maybe that is a breach, but not a whopper of a breach, also one the Tories will always have to have strictly followed or else this blows up in their face, certainly not enough a breach to demand it must be more than 6 months gardening leave between jobs do you think?
    I have no idea what the recommendation will be if the report finds against Sue Gray
    Fair play. When PB said Big G please explain, you fronted up and explained. 🙂

    Sue and Starmer talking, without Starmer clearing those talks first with government is a breach of the code I am sure. But only a minor breach, no 2 year gardening leave can be justified from that, we all know that, and this overhyped Graygate has fizzled out, in truth
    I came under considerable attack on simply stating what I considered a fair response

    I reiterate I believe her report into Johnson was fair and indeed lenient and was completed before her talks with Starmer

    There are some in the conservative party who are trying to ludicrously claim it negates her report and I reject that100%

    The question relates to whether in discussing her appointment to Starmer and labour was in breach of civil service rules and that will be answered shortly

    The question of gardening leave will follow the report

    I would just say pilling into a fellow poster who may have a more nuanced opinion than some can be unfair
    It’s true. Soon as you posted, everyone came back with an opinion.

    But where we don’t know the outcome, you do concede there are breaches and then there are breaches of code, “you didn’t ask for permission first” being very minor - and the length of gardening leave, largely there for commercial consideration, defence PS to defence industry for example, utterly absent in Civil Service to political party role moves, so will need something remarkable we havn’t or heard of yet to be longer than standard 6 months?
    We are much on the same page on this
    I’m not sure we’re even on the same report.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/03/first-edition-sue-gray-keir-starmer-labour-partygate
    … Yesterday’s update was on the Cabinet Office inquiry; there is no date for when Acoba will reach its conclusion.

    Acoba is the body with responsibility for assessing new jobs for senior civil servants, as well as former ministers, and has the power to suggest a cooling-off period of between three months and two years if there are concerns about any conflict of interest. Nobody disputes that it should have a say over Gray’s appointment.

    But the Cabinet Office inquiry was less conventional, and more controversial. “There’s no precedent for this sort of investigation for someone who’s already left the civil service,” Pippa said. “And there are senior civil servants who were concerned about such a politically charged report being released just before the local elections.”

    Nonetheless, detailed briefing that the Cabinet Office had concluded that “Sue Gray held secret talks with [Starmer] while working for the team advising the Commons partygate investigation” appeared in advance. And yet the actual update from Oliver Dowden said nothing of the kind, but noted that Gray had declined to participate and said that there was an obligation “to maintain confidentiality towards an individual former employee”...
    So the Cabinet Office "inquiry" was - or rather is - political hackery & cheap trickery from the word go?
    Not in my opinion. “There’s no precedent for this sort of investigation for someone who’s already left the civil service”. Even if they left the civil service, if they were PS at defence for example, I should hope a sensible period should be imposed before they work for a defence contractor.

    Should such a politically charged report be allowed to be released on eve of voting, or held back till after voting?There’s obviously been a service v politicians bun fight behind the scenes this week, which resulted in this delayed till after voting, based on purdah if not also fears of libel. It was quite rightly held back IMO.

    At start of week we were spun there was proper damaging revelations in this. Now we know for certain there isn’t any substance beyond “secret talks” because government were not told they were happening, and in October when Sue was advising the Commons Partygate investigation. Anyone think that sounds substantial or even interesting? If there was anything more damaging than this, once civil service refused to publish, the Tories would have easily leaked it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    What about something like this:

    Boudicca costume

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuyhOTHbJJ8
    That would be no to Boudicca on the grounds of zero relevancy to the coronation of King Charles.

    There’s a Coronation taking place Saturday in London, not a toga party.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    No wonder they didn’t bother publishing the Sue Grey enquiry findings yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/daaronovitch/status/1653800751116722178?s=46

    Another currygate.

    Surprised Big G didn't post this.
    Big John Owls, not Big G.
    Good evening

    I have not subscribed to the opinion that some in the conservative party have, that Sue Gray's report was influenced by her connections with labour.

    However, it seems she was approached by Starmer in October and the point that is controversial is that her discussions with Starmer may be in breach of the civil service code and I suggest that it is wise to wait to see the report due shortly which will receive plenty of coverage in the media, not least Sky

    On the subject of Sky, Sam Coates of posted this today which summarises the position as of now

    https://news.sky.com/story/sue-gray-labour-held-talks-with-senior-civil-servant-for-at-least-four-months-before-chief-of-staff-role-announced-12872234
    The Tories and their client media have been saying that its a political stutch-up. Except that the report into Boris was done and dusted months before the first approach from Starmer.

    Which means the scandal is that Ed Llewlyn stepped straight from the civil service to being David Cameron's Chief of Staff...
    Indeed some have and they are wrong

    Sue Gray's report was quite lenient for Johnson and I do not question its veracity

    The question that is relevant is whether Starmer and Sue Gray entered discussions on her appointment in breach of the civil service code and on that subject it will become public knowledge soon enough and if she did any gardening leave she may have to take
    The breach being? It seems the Tories claiming the breach is merely if you want to recruit a senior civil servant you need to approach government first, not tap them up? Maybe that is a breach, but not a whopper of a breach, also one the Tories will always have to have strictly followed or else this blows up in their face, certainly not enough a breach to demand it must be more than 6 months gardening leave between jobs do you think?
    I have no idea what the recommendation will be if the report finds against Sue Gray
    Fair play. When PB said Big G please explain, you fronted up and explained. 🙂

    Sue and Starmer talking, without Starmer clearing those talks first with government is a breach of the code I am sure. But only a minor breach, no 2 year gardening leave can be justified from that, we all know that, and this overhyped Graygate has fizzled out, in truth
    I came under considerable attack on simply stating what I considered a fair response

    I reiterate I believe her report into Johnson was fair and indeed lenient and was completed before her talks with Starmer

    There are some in the conservative party who are trying to ludicrously claim it negates her report and I reject that100%

    The question relates to whether in discussing her appointment to Starmer and labour was in breach of civil service rules and that will be answered shortly

    The question of gardening leave will follow the report

    I would just say pilling into a fellow poster who may have a more nuanced opinion than some can be unfair
    It’s true. Soon as you posted, everyone came back with an opinion.

    But where we don’t know the outcome, you do concede there are breaches and then there are breaches of code, “you didn’t ask for permission first” being very minor - and the length of gardening leave, largely there for commercial consideration, defence PS to defence industry for example, utterly absent in Civil Service to political party role moves, so will need something remarkable we havn’t or heard of yet to be longer than standard 6 months?
    We are much on the same page on this
    I’m not sure we’re even on the same report.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/03/first-edition-sue-gray-keir-starmer-labour-partygate
    … Yesterday’s update was on the Cabinet Office inquiry; there is no date for when Acoba will reach its conclusion.

    Acoba is the body with responsibility for assessing new jobs for senior civil servants, as well as former ministers, and has the power to suggest a cooling-off period of between three months and two years if there are concerns about any conflict of interest. Nobody disputes that it should have a say over Gray’s appointment.

    But the Cabinet Office inquiry was less conventional, and more controversial. “There’s no precedent for this sort of investigation for someone who’s already left the civil service,” Pippa said. “And there are senior civil servants who were concerned about such a politically charged report being released just before the local elections.”

    Nonetheless, detailed briefing that the Cabinet Office had concluded that “Sue Gray held secret talks with [Starmer] while working for the team advising the Commons partygate investigation” appeared in advance. And yet the actual update from Oliver Dowden said nothing of the kind, but noted that Gray had declined to participate and said that there was an obligation “to maintain confidentiality towards an individual former employee”...
    So the Cabinet Office "inquiry" was - or rather is - political hackery & cheap trickery from the word go?
    Not in my opinion. “There’s no precedent for this sort of investigation for someone who’s already left the civil service”. Even if they left the civil service, if they were PS at defence for example, I should hope a sensible period should be imposed before they work for a defence contractor.

    Should such a politically charged report be allowed to be released on eve of voting, or held back till after voting?There’s obviously been a service v politicians bun fight behind the scenes this week, which resulted in this delayed till after voting, based on purdah if not also fears of libel. It was quite rightly held back IMO.

    At start of week we were spun there was proper damaging revelations in this. Now we know for certain there isn’t any substance beyond “secret talks” because government were not told they were happening, and in October when Sue was advising the Commons Partygate investigation. Anyone think that sounds substantial or even interesting? If there was anything more damaging than this, once civil service refused to publish, the Tories would have easily leaked it.
    Re: your first paragraph, is not the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments "the body with responsibility for assessing new jobs for senior civil servants" as was quoted in email up thread?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    What about something like this:

    Boudicca costume

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuyhOTHbJJ8
    That would be no to Boudicca on the grounds of zero relevancy to the coronation of King Charles.

    There’s a Coronation taking place Saturday in London, not a toga party.
    I'm thinking about coming along as Oliver Cromwell :lol:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    Yokes said:

    We have had voter ID requirements in Northern Ireland for years. Its not exactly a burden, just get on with it.

    Meanwhile lots of speculation over exactly what that UAV attack on the Kremlin was about.

    1. Ukraine can attack that deep into Russia. There are multiple Ukrainian agencies who could give it a crack and who have links with local sympathisers on the ground.
    2. Its unlikely the UAVs were launched from Ukraine, they seem a bit small
    3. The Russian provocation idea only sounds good if you want the embarassment of admitting you cant shoot down two drones coming at your seat of power, and a location that, on paper, has plenty of air defences around it. It is also mitigated by the fact that the Russian authorities didnt exactly acknowledge it super quick. Signs of a bit of fakery are rapid acknowledgement, finger pointing and production of evidence. If it was such a move by Russia it appears remarkably unclear in its objective.

    It does increase the likelihood of attack response on Zelenskyy and his government doesn’t it, which is one tick in the box in favour of fakery?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Which councils will be declaring Thursday night (not mine)?

    Full list here.

    https://election.pressassociation.com/locals/provisional-may-election-declaration-times-in-chronological-order/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The closest poll we've had for a long time, (although it wasn't reported for about 10 days).

    "Savanta

    🌹Lab 42 (-3)
    🌳Con 31 (=)
    🔶LD 9 (+1)
    ➡️Ref 7 (+2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    🌍Gre 3 (=)
    ⬜️Oth 5 (+1)

    2,156 UK adults, 21-23 April"

    https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1653772452600717312


    It's bizarre. Why go the trouble of doing a voting intention poll and then taking two weeks to make it public? 🤷‍♂️
    Apparently one bloke on Twitter is responsible for reporting their poll findings, and he was "away".
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    GN all. Busy day tomorrow. And Friday 👍
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    edited May 2023

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    Are you sure your "bearskins" are for real? Odds they're really rabbitskins WAY more than 19 out of 20!
    Running your finger through it, you can tell it’s not been alive at any point.

    This pic has really piqued your interest again. You must be a complete sucker for the trappings of British pageantry
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Andy_JS said:

    The closest poll we've had for a long time, (although it wasn't reported for about 10 days).

    "Savanta

    🌹Lab 42 (-3)
    🌳Con 31 (=)
    🔶LD 9 (+1)
    ➡️Ref 7 (+2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    🌍Gre 3 (=)
    ⬜️Oth 5 (+1)

    2,156 UK adults, 21-23 April"

    https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1653772452600717312

    "Hilariously out of date".
    Not really. If you're doing a polling average with the latest 10 polls, this would still qualify as one of those 10.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,523
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    1) I suppose we can't know how many personations (?) took place

    2) Surely it's older voters who are most likely to not have a valid passport/driving licence? Even with the trend for not drinking/driving, most younger people have ID to get into concerts etc

    3) lots of countries that we admire have ID requirements (and monarchies ;) ). Sweden, for example.

    The main thing it will do is cause massive queues, lots of angst and general ill feeling.

    Of developed world democracies without ID cards - New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and Japan - two don't require ID to vote at all (NZ and Japan), while two (Australia and Canada) do.

    However, in both cases, there are contingencies for people who arrive without ID*: if another voter attests to your identity, then you can vote; and if you don't have another voter who can attest, then you can cast a provisional ballot that can be cured later in the event that the result is sufficiently close.

    * And their list of acceptable IDs is longer
    Though worth adding that in Australia voting is compulsory so the effect of ID cards upon likelihood to vote and disenfrancisement is probably rather muted
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    What about something like this:

    Boudicca costume

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuyhOTHbJJ8
    That would be no to Boudicca on the grounds of zero relevancy to the coronation of King Charles.

    There’s a Coronation taking place Saturday in London, not a toga party.
    She was a British queen regnant, was she not? So more royal than any guards(wo)man!

    And did you know, that Guards originated as part of the New Model Army?

    So they had something to do with KCI losing his fool head? (But also KCII gaining his crown.)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Which councils will be declaring Thursday night (not mine)?

    Sitting-on-the-Pot? Rutting-in-the-Woods? Knapping-in-Flintshire?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited May 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    My favourite counter-measure would be quite technical - instruct the Boundary Commission to draw constituency boundaries according to population, as shown by the census, rather than by the number who have registered. That would eliminate the inherent bias to older, more settled people, as opposed to young people who constantly move around. I wouldn't extend the vote to anyone unregistered, but a community of 80,000 should be worth an MP regardless of how many of them have in fact registered.

    Agreed - calculating based on a measure that is even more changable than mere population growth is a poor idea.
    I've never known a Labour supporter who doesn't support this move.
    Never voted Labour in my life. It just sounds fairer to me.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587

    Which councils will be declaring Thursday night (not mine)?

    Sitting-on-the-Pot? Rutting-in-the-Woods? Knapping-in-Flintshire?
    Ashby-de-la-Zouch, Wyre Piddle and Pink Green are key battlegrounds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited May 2023
    I do love a good theoretical map, though I think this one may cause some peoples' heads to explode of a hypothetical Europe in 2037.

    https://twitter.com/EeldenDen/status/1653096350056079370
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited May 2023
    Edit
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Scottish News.
    Cross-over on the list - which determines who actually gets the most MSPs. Would be a Unionist majority.

    New Scottish Parliament poll, Redfield & Wilton 30 Apr - 2 May (changes v 31 Mar - 1 Apr):

    List:
    Lab ~ 27% (+3)
    SNP ~ 25% (-5)
    Con ~ 19% (nc)
    Grn ~ 13% (+2)
    LD ~ 10% (-3)
    Alba ~ 2% (+2)
    RUK ~ 2% (nc)

    Const:
    SNP ~ 36% (-2)
    Lab ~ 32% (+4)
    Con ~ 18% (nc)
    LD ~ 8% (-2)
    Grn ~ 2% (-1)

    Projecting Redfield & Wilton 30 Apr - 2 May into seats (changes v 31 Mar - 1 Apr / 2021):

    Labour ~ 38 (+8 / +16)
    SNP ~ 37 (-14 / -27)
    Conservative ~ 25 (+2 / -6)
    Green ~ 17 (+7 /+9)
    Lib Dem ~ 12 (-3 / +8)

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1653845448703057920
    Have we done the latest Scottish Westminster VI poll yet?

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1653792839698980865

    Electoral Calculus translates that into 21 additional Labour seats.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    What about something like this:

    Boudicca costume

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuyhOTHbJJ8
    That would be no to Boudicca on the grounds of zero relevancy to the coronation of King Charles.

    There’s a Coronation taking place Saturday in London, not a toga party.
    She was a British queen regnant, was she not? So more royal than any guards(wo)man!

    And did you know, that Guards originated as part of the New Model Army?

    So they had something to do with KCI losing his fool head? (But also KCII gaining his crown.)
    I didn’t know guards originated in the new model army.

    But I suspect Charles 1st was no fool, despite Cromwell being the most horrible murderous bloodthirsty bastard ever, they didn’t want to cut kings head off, he gave them no choice knowing how it could damage them and their take over.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited May 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Allister Heath's latest article.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/03/war-on-cash-existential-threat-financial-independence/

    "The war on cash poses an existential threat to our financial independence
    It’s terrible for the elderly, and risks giving massive power to social engineers and faceless bureaucrats"

    We're in the middle of our town pottery festival. The government's been promoting cashless payment, and there are a bunch of very aggressive payment system companies signing everybody up. So nearly all the pottery stalls are able to accept non-cash payments from the customers' phones.

    There's just one problem: When this many visitors show up, all the mobile networks go down. Luckily we still have cash...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    Are you sure your "bearskins" are for real? Odds they're really rabbitskins WAY more than 19 out of 20!
    Running your finger through it, you can tell it’s not been alive at any point.

    This pic has really piqued your interest again. You must be a complete sucker for the trappings of British pageantry
    Bunnies and bears are both alive before being turned into hats.

    Since you are such a mind reader, how many $500 bills am I thinking are currently in my wallet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    No wonder they didn’t bother publishing the Sue Grey enquiry findings yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/daaronovitch/status/1653800751116722178?s=46

    Another currygate.

    Surprised Big G didn't post this.
    Big John Owls, not Big G.
    Good evening

    I have not subscribed to the opinion that some in the conservative party have, that Sue Gray's report was influenced by her connections with labour.

    However, it seems she was approached by Starmer in October and the point that is controversial is that her discussions with Starmer may be in breach of the civil service code and I suggest that it is wise to wait to see the report due shortly which will receive plenty of coverage in the media, not least Sky

    On the subject of Sky, Sam Coates of posted this today which summarises the position as of now

    https://news.sky.com/story/sue-gray-labour-held-talks-with-senior-civil-servant-for-at-least-four-months-before-chief-of-staff-role-announced-12872234
    The Tories and their client media have been saying that its a political stutch-up. Except that the report into Boris was done and dusted months before the first approach from Starmer.

    Which means the scandal is that Ed Llewlyn stepped straight from the civil service to being David Cameron's Chief of Staff...
    Indeed some have and they are wrong

    Sue Gray's report was quite lenient for Johnson and I do not question its veracity

    The question that is relevant is whether Starmer and Sue Gray entered discussions on her appointment in breach of the civil service code and on that subject it will become public knowledge soon enough and if she did any gardening leave she may have to take
    The breach being? It seems the Tories claiming the breach is merely if you want to recruit a senior civil servant you need to approach government first, not tap them up? Maybe that is a breach, but not a whopper of a breach, also one the Tories will always have to have strictly followed or else this blows up in their face, certainly not enough a breach to demand it must be more than 6 months gardening leave between jobs do you think?
    I have no idea what the recommendation will be if the report finds against Sue Gray
    Fair play. When PB said Big G please explain, you fronted up and explained. 🙂

    Sue and Starmer talking, without Starmer clearing those talks first with government is a breach of the code I am sure. But only a minor breach, no 2 year gardening leave can be justified from that, we all know that, and this overhyped Graygate has fizzled out, in truth
    I came under considerable attack on simply stating what I considered a fair response

    I reiterate I believe her report into Johnson was fair and indeed lenient and was completed before her talks with Starmer

    There are some in the conservative party who are trying to ludicrously claim it negates her report and I reject that100%

    The question relates to whether in discussing her appointment to Starmer and labour was in breach of civil service rules and that will be answered shortly

    The question of gardening leave will follow the report

    I would just say pilling into a fellow poster who may have a more nuanced opinion than some can be unfair
    It’s true. Soon as you posted, everyone came back with an opinion.

    But where we don’t know the outcome, you do concede there are breaches and then there are breaches of code, “you didn’t ask for permission first” being very minor - and the length of gardening leave, largely there for commercial consideration, defence PS to defence industry for example, utterly absent in Civil Service to political party role moves, so will need something remarkable we havn’t or heard of yet to be longer than standard 6 months?
    We are much on the same page on this
    I’m not sure we’re even on the same report.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/03/first-edition-sue-gray-keir-starmer-labour-partygate
    … Yesterday’s update was on the Cabinet Office inquiry; there is no date for when Acoba will reach its conclusion.

    Acoba is the body with responsibility for assessing new jobs for senior civil servants, as well as former ministers, and has the power to suggest a cooling-off period of between three months and two years if there are concerns about any conflict of interest. Nobody disputes that it should have a say over Gray’s appointment.

    But the Cabinet Office inquiry was less conventional, and more controversial. “There’s no precedent for this sort of investigation for someone who’s already left the civil service,” Pippa said. “And there are senior civil servants who were concerned about such a politically charged report being released just before the local elections.”

    Nonetheless, detailed briefing that the Cabinet Office had concluded that “Sue Gray held secret talks with [Starmer] while working for the team advising the Commons partygate investigation” appeared in advance. And yet the actual update from Oliver Dowden said nothing of the kind, but noted that Gray had declined to participate and said that there was an obligation “to maintain confidentiality towards an individual former employee”...
    So the Cabinet Office "inquiry" was - or rather is - political hackery & cheap trickery from the word go?
    I did like how Guido interpreted it, under the title of 'Shady Gray stays silent' and 'Rule-breaking Sue stonewalled government inquiry'

    According to The Sun, the Cabinet Office were able to search Sue’s emails and late interventions from Whitehall lawyers were the only reason insiders removed lines accusing Gray of rule-breaking

    So...basically there was going to be harsher accusations until lawyers intervened (presumably to say that was a 'brave' move), but we should assume those accusations were true regardless.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,258
    Yokes said:

    We have had voter ID requirements in Northern Ireland for years. Its not exactly a burden, just get on with it.

    Meanwhile lots of speculation over exactly what that UAV attack on the Kremlin was about.

    1. Ukraine can attack that deep into Russia. There are multiple Ukrainian agencies who could give it a crack and who have links with local sympathisers on the ground.
    2. Its unlikely the UAVs were launched from Ukraine, they seem a bit small
    3. The Russian provocation idea only sounds good if you want the embarassment of admitting you cant shoot down two drones coming at your seat of power, and a location that, on paper, has plenty of air defences around it. It is also mitigated by the fact that the Russian authorities didnt exactly acknowledge it super quick. Signs of a bit of fakery are rapid acknowledgement, finger pointing and production of evidence. If it was such a move by Russia it appears remarkably unclear in its objective.

    It’s another one where I’m wondering why everyone is saying State Actors.

    A medium sized drone plus something to go bang is a weekend hobby project, not the X Men Jet….
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,258

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    What about something like this:

    Boudicca costume

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuyhOTHbJJ8
    That would be no to Boudicca on the grounds of zero relevancy to the coronation of King Charles.

    There’s a Coronation taking place Saturday in London, not a toga party.
    She was a British queen regnant, was she not? So more royal than any guards(wo)man!

    And did you know, that Guards originated as part of the New Model Army?

    So they had something to do with KCI losing his fool head? (But also KCII gaining his crown.)
    I didn’t know guards originated in the new model army.

    But I suspect Charles 1st was no fool, despite Cromwell being the most horrible murderous bloodthirsty bastard ever, they didn’t want to cut kings head off, he gave them no choice knowing how it could damage them and their take over.
    Coldstream….
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    What about something like this:

    Boudicca costume

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuyhOTHbJJ8
    That would be no to Boudicca on the grounds of zero relevancy to the coronation of King Charles.

    There’s a Coronation taking place Saturday in London, not a toga party.
    I'm thinking about coming along as Oliver Cromwell :lol:
    I wouldn’t advise it based on last appearance on streets of London.

    Cromwell's body was exhumed from Westminster Abbey and publicly dragged through the streets of London to the Tyburn gallows at present-day Marble Arch. His corpse was strung up in chains until four o'clock that afternoon, then struck down and decapitated.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,523
    kle4 said:

    I do love a good theoretical map, though I think this one may cause some peoples' heads to explode of a hypothetical Europe in 2037.

    https://twitter.com/EeldenDen/status/1653096350056079370

    Norwegian and Swiss ones for ure.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    Are you sure your "bearskins" are for real? Odds they're really rabbitskins WAY more than 19 out of 20!
    Running your finger through it, you can tell it’s not been alive at any point.

    This pic has really piqued your interest again. You must be a complete sucker for the trappings of British pageantry
    Bunnies and bears are both alive before being turned into hats.

    Since you are such a mind reader, how many $500 bills am I thinking are currently in my wallet?
    None. Zero.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    What about something like this:

    Boudicca costume

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuyhOTHbJJ8
    That would be no to Boudicca on the grounds of zero relevancy to the coronation of King Charles.

    There’s a Coronation taking place Saturday in London, not a toga party.
    She was a British queen regnant, was she not? So more royal than any guards(wo)man!

    And did you know, that Guards originated as part of the New Model Army?

    So they had something to do with KCI losing his fool head? (But also KCII gaining his crown.)
    I didn’t know guards originated in the new model army.

    But I suspect Charles 1st was no fool, despite Cromwell being the most horrible murderous bloodthirsty bastard ever, they didn’t want to cut kings head off, he gave them no choice knowing how it could damage them and their take over.
    Charles I was indeed a fool - just ask Prince Rupert's ghost!

    As for the New Model and the Guards, just got a great idea for a new TV series:

    "Monck" staring Tony Shalhoub.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited May 2023

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    What about something like this:

    Boudicca costume

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuyhOTHbJJ8
    That would be no to Boudicca on the grounds of zero relevancy to the coronation of King Charles.

    There’s a Coronation taking place Saturday in London, not a toga party.
    She was a British queen regnant, was she not? So more royal than any guards(wo)man!

    And did you know, that Guards originated as part of the New Model Army?

    So they had something to do with KCI losing his fool head? (But also KCII gaining his crown.)
    I didn’t know guards originated in the new model army.

    But I suspect Charles 1st was no fool, despite Cromwell being the most horrible murderous bloodthirsty bastard ever, they didn’t want to cut kings head off, he gave them no choice knowing how it could damage them and their take over.
    Charles I was most definitely a fool, at least when it came to stubborn inflexibility and a highly ahistorical view about the power of the monarch (yes opponents engaged in plenty of ahistorical analysis as well) and implications of a divine right, breaking his word and causing his enemies to become ever more extreme.

    Whilst we would not call what he got a fair trial today, it was by some margin more than those who opposed him got upon Charles II's return.

    The NMA regiment to which part of the Guards trace their history was formed after the regicide, by a Royalist turned Cromwellian turned Royalist (there are other elements to it).

    Cromwell was not the most horrible murderous bloodthirsty bastard ever, even considering the nature of the conquest of Ireland which was, unfortunately, not unheard of for the time.

    The dominant army faction purged the parliament in order to ensure the execution of Charles, it was hardly a singularly Cromwell driven even though he was the key figure of the period.

    Just for starters.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332

    Yokes said:

    We have had voter ID requirements in Northern Ireland for years. Its not exactly a burden, just get on with it.

    Meanwhile lots of speculation over exactly what that UAV attack on the Kremlin was about.

    1. Ukraine can attack that deep into Russia. There are multiple Ukrainian agencies who could give it a crack and who have links with local sympathisers on the ground.
    2. Its unlikely the UAVs were launched from Ukraine, they seem a bit small
    3. The Russian provocation idea only sounds good if you want the embarassment of admitting you cant shoot down two drones coming at your seat of power, and a location that, on paper, has plenty of air defences around it. It is also mitigated by the fact that the Russian authorities didnt exactly acknowledge it super quick. Signs of a bit of fakery are rapid acknowledgement, finger pointing and production of evidence. If it was such a move by Russia it appears remarkably unclear in its objective.

    It does increase the likelihood of attack response on Zelenskyy and his government doesn’t it, which is one tick in the box in favour of fakery?
    Russia is doing that anyway, if they could have got Zelensky by now they would have.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    Are you sure your "bearskins" are for real? Odds they're really rabbitskins WAY more than 19 out of 20!
    Running your finger through it, you can tell it’s not been alive at any point.

    This pic has really piqued your interest again. You must be a complete sucker for the trappings of British pageantry
    Bunnies and bears are both alive before being turned into hats.

    Since you are such a mind reader, how many $500 bills am I thinking are currently in my wallet?
    None. Zero.
    You ARE a mind reader!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kle4 said:

    I do love a good theoretical map, though I think this one may cause some peoples' heads to explode of a hypothetical Europe in 2037.

    https://twitter.com/EeldenDen/status/1653096350056079370

    Norwegian and Swiss ones for ure.
    A desire for neatness means no gaps may be permitted.Serbia will get in on sufference just so all the space is filled in.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,628
    kle4 said:


    kle4 said:

    I do love a good theoretical map, though I think this one may cause some peoples' heads to explode of a hypothetical Europe in 2037.

    https://twitter.com/EeldenDen/status/1653096350056079370

    Norwegian and Swiss ones for ure.
    A desire for neatness means no gaps may be permitted.Serbia will get in on sufference just so all the space is filled in.
    It can't be considered neat with the European bit of Turkey missing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    I will say this for Charles I, unlike the other two Charles' he was a good husband.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    kle4 said:

    I do love a good theoretical map, though I think this one may cause some peoples' heads to explode of a hypothetical Europe in 2037.

    https://twitter.com/EeldenDen/status/1653096350056079370

    Norwegian and Swiss ones for ure.
    Type on that map a bit small.

    Are the various divisions of England perhaps labeled, "French Occupation Zone", "German Occupation Zone", "Spanish Occupation Zone', "Scottish Occupation Zone" and (last and maybe least) "Welsh Occupation Zone"?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kle4 said:


    kle4 said:

    I do love a good theoretical map, though I think this one may cause some peoples' heads to explode of a hypothetical Europe in 2037.

    https://twitter.com/EeldenDen/status/1653096350056079370

    Norwegian and Swiss ones for ure.
    A desire for neatness means no gaps may be permitted.Serbia will get in on sufference just so all the space is filled in.
    It can't be considered neat with the European bit of Turkey missing.
    That's part of phase 2 - expansion through Turkey to the Caucasus and the Levant.

    Phase 3 will be to restore the former Roman territories on the north coast of Africa and gain total dominance of the Mediterranean and the temperate zone.

    Phase 4 will conclude with pushing across the Urals, probably around 2075.

    Only then gain the French overseas departments be used as staging points for expansion into South American and the pacific.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kle4 said:

    I will say this for Charles I, unlike the other two Charles' he was a good husband.

    Too good. KCI was Henrietta-pecked.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928

    kle4 said:

    I do love a good theoretical map, though I think this one may cause some peoples' heads to explode of a hypothetical Europe in 2037.

    https://twitter.com/EeldenDen/status/1653096350056079370

    Norwegian and Swiss ones for ure.
    Type on that map a bit small.

    Are the various divisions of England perhaps labeled, "French Occupation Zone", "German Occupation Zone", "Spanish Occupation Zone', "Scottish Occupation Zone" and (last and maybe least) "Welsh Occupation Zone"?
    Given the capital is in Vienna, wouldn't Prince Archbishopric of Cambridge, etc, be more appropriate?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    kle4 said:

    I do love a good theoretical map, though I think this one may cause some peoples' heads to explode of a hypothetical Europe in 2037.

    https://twitter.com/EeldenDen/status/1653096350056079370

    Norwegian and Swiss ones for ure.
    A desire for neatness means no gaps may be permitted.Serbia will get in on sufference just so all the space is filled in.
    It can't be considered neat with the European bit of Turkey missing.
    That's part of phase 2 - expansion through Turkey to the Caucasus and the Levant.

    Phase 3 will be to restore the former Roman territories on the north coast of Africa and gain total dominance of the Mediterranean and the temperate zone.

    Phase 4 will conclude with pushing across the Urals, probably around 2075.

    Only then gain the French overseas departments be used as staging points for expansion into South American and the pacific.
    Have you been reading some old German literature recently, by any chance?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    Are you sure your "bearskins" are for real? Odds they're really rabbitskins WAY more than 19 out of 20!
    Running your finger through it, you can tell it’s not been alive at any point.

    This pic has really piqued your interest again. You must be a complete sucker for the trappings of British pageantry
    Bunnies and bears are both alive before being turned into hats.

    Since you are such a mind reader, how many $500 bills am I thinking are currently in my wallet?
    None. Zero.
    You ARE a mind reader!
    And you are broke.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited May 2023
    The real battle at the next election is whether to stick to a now-bankrupt model (Sunak) or whether to follow Biden and Europe toward the next thing (hesitantly, Starmer).

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-bidenomics-has-finally-defeated-reaganomics

    Britain’s model stopped working in 2008 (at least). It’s astonishing that it still has such an ideological grip on the country.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited May 2023
    London, Scotland and Wales aren't voting tomorrow/today, but if I understand it correctly the projected national vote will be an estimate of how the whole of Britain would have voted, including the areas that aren't actually voting. Is this correct? I always find it a bit confusing. I don't know how they can include places that aren't voting in the calculations for the simple reason that there won't be any data from those areas, but on the other hand the phrase "National Equivalent Vote Share" implies that it does attempt to estimate vote shares for the whole of Britain.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    kle4 said:

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    What about something like this:

    Boudicca costume

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuyhOTHbJJ8
    That would be no to Boudicca on the grounds of zero relevancy to the coronation of King Charles.

    There’s a Coronation taking place Saturday in London, not a toga party.
    She was a British queen regnant, was she not? So more royal than any guards(wo)man!

    And did you know, that Guards originated as part of the New Model Army?

    So they had something to do with KCI losing his fool head? (But also KCII gaining his crown.)
    I didn’t know guards originated in the new model army.

    But I suspect Charles 1st was no fool, despite Cromwell being the most horrible murderous bloodthirsty bastard ever, they didn’t want to cut kings head off, he gave them no choice knowing how it could damage them and their take over.
    Charles I was most definitely a fool, at least when it came to stubborn inflexibility and a highly ahistorical view about the power of the monarch (yes opponents engaged in plenty of ahistorical analysis as well) and implications of a divine right, breaking his word and causing his enemies to become ever more extreme.

    Whilst we would not call what he got a fair trial today, it was by some margin more than those who opposed him got upon Charles II's return.

    The NMA regiment to which part of the Guards trace their history was formed after the regicide, by a Royalist turned Cromwellian turned Royalist (there are other elements to it).

    Cromwell was not the most horrible murderous bloodthirsty bastard ever, even considering the nature of the conquest of Ireland which was, unfortunately, not unheard of for the time.

    The dominant army faction purged the parliament in order to ensure the execution of Charles, it was hardly a singularly Cromwell driven even though he was the key figure of the period.

    Just for starters.
    Yey! We have a period expert.

    So what was the Protectorate arrangement with the UK Catholic Church? Did they have cordial dealings with them, or feared they were simply plotters with foreign enemies?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    Andy_JS said:

    London, Scotland and Wales aren't voting tomorrow/today, but if I understand it correctly the projected national vote will be an estimate of how the whole of Britain would have voted, including the areas that aren't actually voting. Is this correct? I always find it a bit confusing. I don't know how they can include places that aren't voting in the calculations for the simple reason that there won't be any data from those areas, but on the other hand the phrase "National Equivalent Vote Share" implies that it does attempt to estimate vote shares for the whole of Britain.

    I understand that too. They have mathematical tools in a spreadsheet, so they just punch in the voting results, and last time it took a couple off Tory’s and added it to Labour for the PNE.

    Like you, I expect there are some assumptions built into the maths.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    The first two changes I don't see much of an issue with. The third is inexcusable.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited May 2023
    "Loneliness poses profound public health threat, surgeon general says

    The risk of premature death posed by social disconnection is similar to smoking up to 15 cigarettes a day and even greater than obesity and physical inactivity, according to a review of research on social connection."

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/05/02/loneliness-health-crisis-surgeon-general/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    My favourite counter-measure would be quite technical - instruct the Boundary Commission to draw constituency boundaries according to population, as shown by the census, rather than by the number who have registered. That would eliminate the inherent bias to older, more settled people, as opposed to young people who constantly move around. I wouldn't extend the vote to anyone unregistered, but a community of 80,000 should be worth an MP regardless of how many of them have in fact registered.

    Agreed - calculating based on a measure that is even more changable than mere population growth is a poor idea.
    I've never known a Labour supporter who doesn't support this move.
    Never voted Labour in my life. It just sounds fairer to me.
    Some people have suggested that boundaries should be set by the number of people voting...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    Are you sure your "bearskins" are for real? Odds they're really rabbitskins WAY more than 19 out of 20!
    Running your finger through it, you can tell it’s not been alive at any point.

    This pic has really piqued your interest again. You must be a complete sucker for the trappings of British pageantry
    Bunnies and bears are both alive before being turned into hats.

    Since you are such a mind reader, how many $500 bills am I thinking are currently in my wallet?
    None. Zero.
    You ARE a mind reader!
    And you are broke.
    You wouldn't make a mean, hurtful crack like that about Rishi Sunak!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    kle4 said:

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Just back from the pub. The whole place was in uproar about Sue Grey-gate. Some in tears, some shouting, one poor chap even hounded out of the entire premises by a burly bouncer for daring to suggest that her appointment was a full three months after the departure of Boris Johnson.

    I dread to think what will happen in the upcoming days with this. The mood is such anger against Sue Grey that there could be civil disorder.

    If it turns violent, is that Fifty Shades of Gray?
    Have you even read the book or seen the film?
    A badly written novel and in a me-too world, rather an offensive sexploitation movie.

    Are you still attending the Cozza dressed like Aerosmith? I'll look out for a Steven Tyler lookalike on the telly.
    I think you’ve got your wires crossed. The bearskins should keep our head dry. We are not taking guns!


    What about something like this:

    Boudicca costume

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuyhOTHbJJ8
    That would be no to Boudicca on the grounds of zero relevancy to the coronation of King Charles.

    There’s a Coronation taking place Saturday in London, not a toga party.
    She was a British queen regnant, was she not? So more royal than any guards(wo)man!

    And did you know, that Guards originated as part of the New Model Army?

    So they had something to do with KCI losing his fool head? (But also KCII gaining his crown.)
    I didn’t know guards originated in the new model army.

    But I suspect Charles 1st was no fool, despite Cromwell being the most horrible murderous bloodthirsty bastard ever, they didn’t want to cut kings head off, he gave them no choice knowing how it could damage them and their take over.
    Charles I was most definitely a fool, at least when it came to stubborn inflexibility and a highly ahistorical view about the power of the monarch (yes opponents engaged in plenty of ahistorical analysis as well) and implications of a divine right, breaking his word and causing his enemies to become ever more extreme.

    Whilst we would not call what he got a fair trial today, it was by some margin more than those who opposed him got upon Charles II's return.

    The NMA regiment to which part of the Guards trace their history was formed after the regicide, by a Royalist turned Cromwellian turned Royalist (there are other elements to it).

    Cromwell was not the most horrible murderous bloodthirsty bastard ever, even considering the nature of the conquest of Ireland which was, unfortunately, not unheard of for the time.

    The dominant army faction purged the parliament in order to ensure the execution of Charles, it was hardly a singularly Cromwell driven even though he was the key figure of the period.

    Just for starters.
    Yey! We have a period expert.

    So what was the Protectorate arrangement with the UK Catholic Church? Did they have cordial dealings with them, or feared they were simply plotters with foreign enemies?
    Not an expert, but believe answer was behind Door #2.

    Nothing approaching cordiality between Roman Catholics and Commonwealth in any of the Three Kingdoms.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Andy_JS said:

    "Loneliness poses profound public health threat, surgeon general says

    The risk of premature death posed by social disconnection is similar to smoking up to 15 cigarettes a day and even greater than obesity and physical inactivity, according to a review of research on social connection."

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/05/02/loneliness-health-crisis-surgeon-general/

    So, what you're saying is that so long as I'm sociable, I can smoke a packet a day?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    Andy_JS said:

    Which councils will be declaring Thursday night (not mine)?

    Full list here.

    https://election.pressassociation.com/locals/provisional-may-election-declaration-times-in-chronological-order/
    Certainly no point in staying up late. Getting up early might yield a reasonably slice of news, but the story of the elections will mostly emerge during Friday and we won’t have the full picture until later on that day. A story, if there is one, for Saturday’s news.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    Andy_JS said:

    London, Scotland and Wales aren't voting tomorrow/today, but if I understand it correctly the projected national vote will be an estimate of how the whole of Britain would have voted, including the areas that aren't actually voting. Is this correct? I always find it a bit confusing. I don't know how they can include places that aren't voting in the calculations for the simple reason that there won't be any data from those areas, but on the other hand the phrase "National Equivalent Vote Share" implies that it does attempt to estimate vote shares for the whole of Britain.

    Yes, that is what they try to do, using the swings in a good batch of wards supposedly chosen as being representative of various different types of area. It’s a reasonable approach but unlikely to fully overcome the problems of differential swings by geography or demography coupled with the inbuilt bias in the batch of wards that come up for election each cycle.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,916
    edited May 2023
    Pro_Rata said:

    OK, all the bell weathers for tomorrow.

    It is known that local elections and by elections are limited predictors of general elections, what I don't know historically is how good local by elections are at predicting local elections.

    The Tories sit only 4 points behind Labour on a prior NEV plus vote share change in the last 3 months local by elections. The numbers are a bit swingy and the last few months include bigger proportions from London, Scotland and Wales than from the shires where LEs are taking place.

    But as a left leaning worrier, I am taking very seriously the possibility that the Tories might suffer very few losses, even as everyone and his dog knows otherwise. Call it practice for the GE.

    Truth be told, I expect Labour to do better than a 4 point NEV lead, but not so much better.

    The LE VI surveys all have Labour a bit better. I think the doubt here is on the turnout filters. Opinium recorded very high turnout intention in giving Labour a healthy vote lead in the areas voting, but their write up was sceptical of their own results. Btw, I think this year's pattern means a Lab NEV lead would be
    around 5 points more than their raw vote lead.

    So, the element of doubt against this measure is simply that the turnout filters might be less developed in these surveys, and the pollsters are less experienced in local VI polling by simple fact that they do it less.

    In summary, I'm not taking a shellacking for granted, and I think the counter possibility is worth bearing in mind for betting purposes.

    Bell wethers - castrated rams wearing bells that the other sheep follow

    Nothing to do with the weather
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Loneliness poses profound public health threat, surgeon general says

    The risk of premature death posed by social disconnection is similar to smoking up to 15 cigarettes a day and even greater than obesity and physical inactivity, according to a review of research on social connection."

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/05/02/loneliness-health-crisis-surgeon-general/

    So, what you're saying is that so long as I'm sociable, I can smoke a packet a day?
    This is another covid legacy, the legacy of social distancing; over the longer term of course even when assessed in terms of health outcomes, the harm may well outweigh the benefits by quite a large margin.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    I tried that life expectancy calculator (although it's a US one) and I got 87.

    Feels about right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    No wonder they didn’t bother publishing the Sue Grey enquiry findings yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/daaronovitch/status/1653800751116722178?s=46

    Another currygate.

    Surprised Big G didn't post this.
    Big John Owls, not Big G.
    Good evening

    I have not subscribed to the opinion that some in the conservative party have, that Sue Gray's report was influenced by her connections with labour.

    However, it seems she was approached by Starmer in October and the point that is controversial is that her discussions with Starmer may be in breach of the civil service code and I suggest that it is wise to wait to see the report due shortly which will receive plenty of coverage in the media, not least Sky

    On the subject of Sky, Sam Coates of posted this today which summarises the position as of now

    https://news.sky.com/story/sue-gray-labour-held-talks-with-senior-civil-servant-for-at-least-four-months-before-chief-of-staff-role-announced-12872234
    The Tories and their client media have been saying that its a political stutch-up. Except that the report into Boris was done and dusted months before the first approach from Starmer.

    Which means the scandal is that Ed Llewlyn stepped straight from the civil service to being David Cameron's Chief of Staff...
    Indeed some have and they are wrong

    Sue Gray's report was quite lenient for Johnson and I do not question its veracity

    The question that is relevant is whether Starmer and Sue Gray entered discussions on her appointment in breach of the civil service code and on that subject it will become public knowledge soon enough and if she did any gardening leave she may have to take
    The breach being? It seems the Tories claiming the breach is merely if you want to recruit a senior civil servant you need to approach government first, not tap them up? Maybe that is a breach, but not a whopper of a breach, also one the Tories will always have to have strictly followed or else this blows up in their face, certainly not enough a breach to demand it must be more than 6 months gardening leave between jobs do you think?
    I have no idea what the recommendation will be if the report finds against Sue Gray
    Fair play. When PB said Big G please explain, you fronted up and explained. 🙂

    Sue and Starmer talking, without Starmer clearing those talks first with government is a breach of the code I am sure. But only a minor breach, no 2 year gardening leave can be justified from that, we all know that, and this overhyped Graygate has fizzled out, in truth
    I came under considerable attack on simply stating what I considered a fair response

    I reiterate I believe her report into Johnson was fair and indeed lenient and was completed before her talks with Starmer

    There are some in the conservative party who are trying to ludicrously claim it negates her report and I reject that100%

    The question relates to whether in discussing her appointment to Starmer and labour was in breach of civil service rules and that will be answered shortly

    The question of gardening leave will follow the report

    I would just say pilling into a fellow poster who may have a more nuanced opinion than some can be unfair
    It’s true. Soon as you posted, everyone came back with an opinion.

    But where we don’t know the outcome, you do concede there are breaches and then there are breaches of code, “you didn’t ask for permission first” being very minor - and the length of gardening leave, largely there for commercial consideration, defence PS to defence industry for example, utterly absent in Civil Service to political party role moves, so will need something remarkable we havn’t or heard of yet to be longer than standard 6 months?
    We are much on the same page on this
    I’m not sure we’re even on the same report.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/03/first-edition-sue-gray-keir-starmer-labour-partygate
    … Yesterday’s update was on the Cabinet Office inquiry; there is no date for when Acoba will reach its conclusion.

    Acoba is the body with responsibility for assessing new jobs for senior civil servants, as well as former ministers, and has the power to suggest a cooling-off period of between three months and two years if there are concerns about any conflict of interest. Nobody disputes that it should have a say over Gray’s appointment.

    But the Cabinet Office inquiry was less conventional, and more controversial. “There’s no precedent for this sort of investigation for someone who’s already left the civil service,” Pippa said. “And there are senior civil servants who were concerned about such a politically charged report being released just before the local elections.”

    Nonetheless, detailed briefing that the Cabinet Office had concluded that “Sue Gray held secret talks with [Starmer] while working for the team advising the Commons partygate investigation” appeared in advance. And yet the actual update from Oliver Dowden said nothing of the kind, but noted that Gray had declined to participate and said that there was an obligation “to maintain confidentiality towards an individual former employee”...
    So the Cabinet Office "inquiry" was - or rather is - political hackery & cheap trickery from the word go?
    Not in my opinion. “There’s no precedent for this sort of investigation for someone who’s already left the civil service”. Even if they left the civil service, if they were PS at defence for example, I should hope a sensible period should be imposed before they work for a defence contractor...

    Which is precisely the role of Acoba to rule on.

    Eff all to do with the spurious cabinet office 'enquiry'. Which is evidently a bit of political theatre..

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: backed Perez at 6.5 to 'win' qualifying each way. Last year he was within half a tenth of Verstappen.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    Pro_Rata said:

    OK, all the bell weathers for tomorrow.

    It is known that local elections and by elections are limited predictors of general elections, what I don't know historically is how good local by elections are at predicting local elections.

    The Tories sit only 4 points behind Labour on a prior NEV plus vote share change in the last 3 months local by elections. The numbers are a bit swingy and the last few months include bigger proportions from London, Scotland and Wales than from the shires where LEs are taking place.

    But as a left leaning worrier, I am taking very seriously the possibility that the Tories might suffer very few losses, even as everyone and his dog knows otherwise. Call it practice for the GE.

    Truth be told, I expect Labour to do better than a 4 point NEV lead, but not so much better.

    The LE VI surveys all have Labour a bit better. I think the doubt here is on the turnout filters. Opinium recorded very high turnout intention in giving Labour a healthy vote lead in the areas voting, but their write up was sceptical of their own results. Btw, I think this year's pattern means a Lab NEV lead would be
    around 5 points more than their raw vote lead.

    So, the element of doubt against this measure is simply that the turnout filters might be less developed in these surveys, and the pollsters are less experienced in local VI polling by simple fact that they do it less.

    In summary, I'm not taking a shellacking for granted, and I think the counter possibility is worth bearing in mind for betting purposes.

    I'm expecting differential turnout to favour Labour - a lot of Lab voters are really keen to vote, and I've only met a few Tories who feel like that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Pro_Rata said:

    OK, all the bell weathers for tomorrow.

    It is known that local elections and by elections are limited predictors of general elections, what I don't know historically is how good local by elections are at predicting local elections.

    The Tories sit only 4 points behind Labour on a prior NEV plus vote share change in the last 3 months local by elections. The numbers are a bit swingy and the last few months include bigger proportions from London, Scotland and Wales than from the shires where LEs are taking place.

    But as a left leaning worrier, I am taking very seriously the possibility that the Tories might suffer very few losses, even as everyone and his dog knows otherwise. Call it practice for the GE.

    Truth be told, I expect Labour to do better than a 4 point NEV lead, but not so much better.

    The LE VI surveys all have Labour a bit better. I think the doubt here is on the turnout filters. Opinium recorded very high turnout intention in giving Labour a healthy vote lead in the areas voting, but their write up was sceptical of their own results. Btw, I think this year's pattern means a Lab NEV lead would be
    around 5 points more than their raw vote lead.

    So, the element of doubt against this measure is simply that the turnout filters might be less developed in these surveys, and the pollsters are less experienced in local VI polling by simple fact that they do it less.

    In summary, I'm not taking a shellacking for granted, and I think the counter possibility is worth bearing in mind for betting purposes.

    I'm expecting differential turnout to favour Labour - a lot of Lab voters are really keen to vote, and I've only met a few Tories who feel like that.
    Good luck for today, and for @icarus. 🤞
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,250

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    The view from Canada on the Coronation. CR should probably take his blood pressure pills before reading:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/may/03/king-charles-iii-coronation-canada-britain

    Yeah, whatever, the fucking ‘omg we owned slaves’ ‘but let’s use a tax haven anyway’ Guardian. Who gives a rat’s pizzle

    Canucks are split on the monarchy

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/canadians-conflicted-on-future-role-of-monarchy

    “Canadians are very much split on their opinions when it comes to the monarchy in Canada. Roughly half (54%) agree (20% strongly/33% somewhat) that now that Queen Elizabeth II’s reign has ended, Canada should end its formal ties to the British monarchy. This sentiment is down 5 points from 2021, but up from 44% in 2011. Conversely, 46% disagree (19% strongly/27% somewhat) that Canada should sever ties, up 5 points.”

    Only 20% are strong republicans (bet they’re mostly in Quebec). You need way more than that to go through the enormous arse-ache of massive constitutional turmoil. It’s not gonna happen. Canada is a safe, stable, prosperous country, looked on with envy by many. Why change what works?

    Also, the monarchy sets Canada apart from the USA and, in my experience, Canadians love ANYTHING that does that
    It's in the Guardian, so you can properly ChatGPT the whole article from here: "write me an article in the style of the Guardian as to why the monarchy is unpopular in Canada"

    In fact, I just did - here is what it said:

    "As a Commonwealth country with a constitutional monarchy, Canada has long been associated with the British royal family. However, recent years have seen a decline in support for the monarchy in Canada, with polls indicating that a growing number of Canadians now believe that the country should become a republic.

    The reasons for this shift in opinion are multifaceted. Firstly, many Canadians see the monarchy as an anachronism that is out of step with modern values. The monarchy is seen by some as a relic of the past, with its focus on tradition and ceremony seen as at odds with Canada's progressive, diverse and egalitarian society.

    Additionally, many Canadians object to the idea of a hereditary head of state. The fact that the position of monarch is passed down through a single family, with no democratic input, is seen by many as fundamentally undemocratic. In a country that values meritocracy and equal opportunity, the idea of a person holding a position of power simply because of their birthright is unpalatable to many.

    Another factor contributing to the unpopularity of the monarchy in Canada is the cost of maintaining the royal family. Despite the fact that Canada is a constitutional monarchy, the royal family does not actually reside in the country, meaning that Canadian taxpayers foot the bill for their security when they visit. This has led to criticism that the money spent on the monarchy could be better used to fund public services or support vulnerable communities.

    Moreover, recent controversies surrounding the royal family have also played a role in eroding support for the institution. The revelations of racism and colonialism made by Prince Harry and Meghan Markle in their interview with Oprah Winfrey, as well as the scandals surrounding Prince Andrew, have called into question the values and behaviour of the royal family.

    Despite these challenges, supporters of the monarchy argue that it provides a link to Canada's history and tradition, and that the cost of maintaining the royal family is minimal compared to the economic benefits that they bring to the country. However, with support for the monarchy declining and calls for a republic growing louder, it remains to be seen whether the institution will continue to have a place in Canadian society.

    Regenerate response"
    That’s a pretty good response to brief. Probably would get a B+ at A level
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Which councils will be declaring Thursday night (not mine)?

    Full list here.

    https://election.pressassociation.com/locals/provisional-may-election-declaration-times-in-chronological-order/
    Certainly no point in staying up late. Getting up early might yield a reasonably slice of news, but the story of the elections will mostly emerge during Friday and we won’t have the full picture until later on that day. A story, if there is one, for Saturday’s news.
    Well, up to a point Lord Copper.

    The PA site referenced here seems to show a huge increase on previous years in final counts delayed till Friday.

    But certainly here, verifications - which mean activists will see the votes - are happening tonight even though the final count won't be called till Friday afternoon, which will be a good 15 hours later than earlier elections this century . So activists will have a pretty good idea by midnight tonight how or whether:
    - turnout differs from previous years (and whether that's led to a suppression of anti-Tory votes)
    - the smaller anti-Tory parties (Greens, LDs and regionalist radicals) have had their following nibbled away by the Starmer bulldozer
    - national media are able to pick up on the signals from these verifications.

    Generally, local parties have a pretty accurate insight into the eventual result from the verification stage. What I've never quite been able to trap is how far national media have been able to pick this up.

    It'll be interesting to compare Friday morning's coverage of this with Saturday and Sunday morning's coverage.
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