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Thursday’s locals – the Westminster polls compared with 2019 – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    I’ve got a strong “Leon-sense” that the worm is turning on Brexit. People are coming round to it. Realising what a good idea it was: indeed the only choice

    Within 2 years those still regretting it will be a minority, and probably a paltry minority. Something like 2%?

    Within three to five years people will start ejaculating - literally and physically cumming in their underwear - at the mere idea we Brexited. After that it will only grow in popularity
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,476
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Most profitable deal ever in terms of percentage return ?

    Silicon Valley Bank: HSBC says UK buyout boosted profit by $1.5bn
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65332752
    Banking giant HSBC says its profits got a $1.5bn (£1.2bn) boost from the purchase of collapsed Silicon Valley Bank's British business (SVB UK).
    Europe's biggest bank posted a pre-tax profit of $12.9bn for the three months to the end of March.
    That is more than three times the amount it made for the same time last year.
    In March, HSBC bought SVB UK for a nominal £1 ($1.25), in a deal led by the government and the Bank of England...


    (Though of course you would have needed billions in capital reserves to have been able to make the purchase.)

    Maybe the Bank of England should include a profit-sharing clause in the next buyout it arranges, or perhaps criterion-based like some football transfers.
    The problem there is that HSBC took a risk. Trying to nationalise profit and privatise loss is just as silly as the other way round.
    They weren't taking that great a risk, since it was wholly insulated from the US parent.
    Government missed a trick in not participating; I don't think anyone's arguing HSBC aren't entitled to profit, though.
    The government’s primary objective was to get a deal done over the weekend. HSBC was the only game in town (BfL wasn’t sufficiently capitalised to cauterise systemic risk). And they knew that. The governments hand wasn’t great, but they achieved their primary objective at the cost of giving a windfall to HSBC (although it was at the cost of SVB shareholders so they didn’t care)

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,874
    ...
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    "I tend to regard LAB voting intention to signify being anti-Tory and that people will vote in their elections for the party locally they perceive as being most likely to beat the Conservatives".

    I'm sure that's correct. The problem most people seem to have is knowing which party in their ward has most chance of causing hurt to the Tories. Surprisingly few seem to even know which party is currently in charge.

    Voters are generally not very clever. Most have no idea who their MP is, nor which party they represent. I wonder how many have no idea whether the Govt is Tory or Labour ?
    Apparently it's quite common for voters to say things like "I'm going to vote for the Labour because they want to stop all those immigrants".
    They're in for a shock.
    Nearly 100 a day arriving by small boats each day at the moment.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    We were assured by PB Tories that the threat of Rwanda would stop the boats.
    Given that there isn't a threat of Rwanda at the moment, they may well be right.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903
    Taz said:

    Former BBC journalist, who left to become a reparations campaigner, whose family have made reparations to Grenada for their impact on slavery, a modest amount compared to their wealth, is now facing demands, and refusing, to pay reparations for her ancestors role in the Irish Famine.

    Interesting this. Once this Pandora's box is opened, who know where it goes.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ex-bbc-journalist-urged-to-pay-reparations-for-ancestor-s-role-in-irish-famine/ar-AA1aBfIj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=514863f7b6d04e9a932afb6cf55d4312&ei=10

    Is she refusing? As I understand it she is open to the idea, but makes the point that while her ancestors' involvement in slavery was for personal profit, thus contributing directly to her family's subsequent wealth, their role in the Irish famine was as a public official - they were simply implementing government policy not acting for personal gain. That seems a relevant distinction when it comes to reparations.
    It's an interesting subject, anyway. As far as I know my ancestors were all relative nobodies, working and lower middle class folk from England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales whose only involvement in the Irish famine was as potential victims of it, although there is a family legend of some ancestor who was involved in anti-slavery activity in the 17th century. But who knows, that far back it is entirely possible we have some wealthy ancestors whose descendents lost or were cut out of the family fortune.
    Unlike others I don't think this kind of exercise is tokenistic or pointless, partly because I lived in the Caribbean for a number of years and I know how deeply the scars of slavery are still felt, and think the amnesia about it here is something that needed rectifying. Where exactly the discussion lands is unclear but it is worth having.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,695

    Nigelb said:

    A more reasoned rant against those responsible for the conduct of Brexit.

    Brexit murdered“moderate” Conservatism
    Now it justifies the right’s stab-in-the-back myths
    https://nickcohen.substack.com/p/brexit-murderedmoderate-conservatism
    ...For understandable, if not forgivable, psychological reasons the right has embraced denial. I do not hold with the liberal-left orthodoxy that Brexit was wholly built on the back of an enormous lie. Boris Johnson lies as easily as he breathes, of course, but a few supporters of Brexit sincerely believed they would inaugurate a national renaissance. When ministers approved a policy document in January 2022 setting out how “the government will use its new freedoms to transform the UK into the best regulated economy in the world,” they were lying to themselves before all others.

    Supporters of Brexit cannot believe in May 2023 what they believed in January 2022. But rather than admit to a mistake, the right retreats into a stab-in-the-back myth: the conspiracy theory of the defeated. Brexit was sabotaged by “anti-Brexit activist civil servants” (Dominic Raab), “a Europhile blob” (Daniel Hannan), and “ the objection and obstruction” of remainers (Jacob Rees-Mogg).

    So intoxicating is the conspiracy theory that not one leading supporter of Brexit has admitted that leaving the European Union was a mistake...


    I think it remains to be seen if it was a mistake. Short term economic damage for sure, but where will we be in 10 years, 20 years and 100 years? Its idiotic to make trade harder with a huge trading block right on your doorstep, but most who voted for Brexit imagined that future trade would be unaffected and that they were voting to leave the political institution. Now its easy to mock that, but I believed that too, and I don't consider myself a stupid person, and I also recall being told that this was possible.

    I still believe that much closer alignment and easier trade is possible without re-joining, and this will happen.
    Of course it was a mistake, no matter how much you're in denial.
    Nobody want to consider themselves stupid or to admit they made a mistake, that's human nature.
    Where am I in denial? Short term hit I acknowledge. I do not know the future - perhaps you do?

    And, as I have said many times, I voted remain. Did I make a mistake?
    Sorry, you voted Remain so you're not in denial. But how should I describe someone who thinks now that "it remains to be seen if it was a mistake." Don't we have enough data already?
    No, we don't. Short term data yes, longer term know.

    There have been many black swans since the vote, not least Ukraine leading to the CoL crisis and a need to restructure energy across Europe, and Covid, where the government paid people to do nothing.

    Its not fully possible to disentangle Brexit effects from Covid and Ukraine, and besides, in the longer term leaving may prove to be the better option. If you think you know the answer to Britain's economic status in 2032, 2042 and 2122 then get some bets on now. I don't.

    So to be precise - the short term data says 'mistake'. The long term data we don't have yet because it hasn't happened.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,218
    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    So what do people make of this trend, being pushed by those on the left of politics, for a 4 day working week with no loss of pay.

    It seems to be a success in many businesses although those judging it are, effectively, marking their own homework as they are often the advocates of it.

    Quite frankly I would be delighted if my workplace adopted it. I shall send it to HR to consider as part of the negotiations this year.

    It is hard to see how, where a job is manual labour, where this can work. If you can produce 100 widgets an hour from a machine you cannot suddenly produce 125 an hour to make up for the operator not being there. If that was the case it would have been done previously to recover more overheads on the asset.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/south-cambridgeshire-council-s-four-day-work-week-trial-hailed-a-success/ar-AA1aA9yu

    Ultimately market forces will determine working practices and pay. I see this as the pay equivalent of shrinkflation. The shrinkflation phenomenon involving brands reducing the size of their products (usually confectionary) instead of increasing the price. This is the employment equivalent.

    Many in my field work 4 days a week anyway, and those who have sought after skills are earning what someone else might get for 5 days.
    My co-worker does 4 days a week but she did take a reduction in pay to do this. Something I would happily do too.

    Is this Shrinkflation though when in the trial businesses the salaries were not reduced in line with the hours ?
    Yes, on the basis the salary is like the cost of the chocolate bar. Stays the same, but the size of the bar (the hours) shrinks.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited May 2023
    Leon said:

    I’ve got a strong “Leon-sense” that the worm is turning on Brexit. People are coming round to it. Realising what a good idea it was: indeed the only choice

    Within 2 years those still regretting it will be a minority, and probably a paltry minority. Something like 2%?

    Within three to five years people will start ejaculating - literally and physically cumming in their underwear - at the mere idea we Brexited. After that it will only grow in popularity

    I think, by 2029, the popular clamour for the long-delayed "Festival of Brexit", replaced by that ridiculous anonymous nonsense about "celebrating Britain", will just be too great.

    Nigel Farage will lead a naval flotilla down the Thames, medals on his chest, and the Red Arrows will spray their multicoloured, magical mist on a country reborn.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,319
    edited May 2023

    BBC WATO going in deep to condemn Gray via James Cleverly. Second story on WATO.

    This seems, admittedly from afar, a Westminster gossip story, of no interest to anyone except Big G.

    The other problem is that it kind of implies that Boris was unfairly done by, which nobody but nobody believes.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    "I tend to regard LAB voting intention to signify being anti-Tory and that people will vote in their elections for the party locally they perceive as being most likely to beat the Conservatives".

    I'm sure that's correct. The problem most people seem to have is knowing which party in their ward has most chance of causing hurt to the Tories. Surprisingly few seem to even know which party is currently in charge.

    Voters are generally not very clever. Most have no idea who their MP is, nor which party they represent. I wonder how many have no idea whether the Govt is Tory or Labour ?
    Apparently it's quite common for voters to say things like "I'm going to vote for the Labour because they want to stop all those immigrants".
    They're in for a shock.
    Nearly 100 a day arriving by small boats each day at the moment.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    We were assured by PB Tories that the threat of Rwanda would stop the boats.
    646 in the past seven days but that's a big drop from the same week last year when there were, oh... 254.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903
    Leon said:

    I’ve got a strong “Leon-sense” that the worm is turning on Brexit. People are coming round to it. Realising what a good idea it was: indeed the only choice

    Within 2 years those still regretting it will be a minority, and probably a paltry minority. Something like 2%?

    Within three to five years people will start ejaculating - literally and physically cumming in their underwear - at the mere idea we Brexited. After that it will only grow in popularity

    Leondamus, the sage of Islington, has spoken.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,924
    Leon said:

    I’ve got a strong “Leon-sense” that the worm is turning on Brexit. People are coming round to it. Realising what a good idea it was: indeed the only choice

    Within 2 years those still regretting it will be a minority, and probably a paltry minority. Something like 2%?

    Within three to five years people will start ejaculating - literally and physically cumming in their underwear - at the mere idea we Brexited. After that it will only grow in popularity

    The King in exile speaks of his subjects.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,198
    edited May 2023
    Pulpstar said:

    Westie said:

    Who security vets the king?

    Or is it just assumed...

    Does he get a vote ?

    I assume the monarch is legally allowed to vote but probably doesn't out of politeness to our err unwritten constitution.
    On the first point - by definition, he can’t be a traitor.

    On the second, yup, it’s exactly that. He can’t not be a person in law so he gets a vote but doesn’t use it. Mind you he could just sack the Government, dismiss Parliament, and govern alone if he got really upset about potholes, so it’s a bit redundant.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Leon said:

    I’ve got a strong “Leon-sense” that the worm is turning on Brexit. People are coming round to it. Realising what a good idea it was: indeed the only choice

    Within 2 years those still regretting it will be a minority, and probably a paltry minority. Something like 2%?

    Within three to five years people will start ejaculating - literally and physically cumming in their underwear - at the mere idea we Brexited. After that it will only grow in popularity

    Youre an optimist its been SEVEN years and Remainerdom still hasnt got past denial
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    Leon said:

    I’ve got a strong “Leon-sense” that the worm is turning on Brexit. People are coming round to it. Realising what a good idea it was: indeed the only choice

    Within 2 years those still regretting it will be a minority, and probably a paltry minority. Something like 2%?

    Within three to five years people will start ejaculating - literally and physically cumming in their underwear - at the mere idea we Brexited. After that it will only grow in popularity

    You had me there; for a moment I thought you were joking.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049
    eek said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    So what do people make of this trend, being pushed by those on the left of politics, for a 4 day working week with no loss of pay.

    It seems to be a success in many businesses although those judging it are, effectively, marking their own homework as they are often the advocates of it.

    Quite frankly I would be delighted if my workplace adopted it. I shall send it to HR to consider as part of the negotiations this year.

    It is hard to see how, where a job is manual labour, where this can work. If you can produce 100 widgets an hour from a machine you cannot suddenly produce 125 an hour to make up for the operator not being there. If that was the case it would have been done previously to recover more overheads on the asset.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/south-cambridgeshire-council-s-four-day-work-week-trial-hailed-a-success/ar-AA1aA9yu

    Ultimately market forces will determine working practices and pay. I see this as the pay equivalent of shrinkflation. The shrinkflation phenomenon involving brands reducing the size of their products (usually confectionary) instead of increasing the price. This is the employment equivalent.

    Many in my field work 4 days a week anyway, and those who have sought after skills are earning what someone else might get for 5 days.
    The 4 days idea is (generally) do 40 hours in 4 days. Then spread the days that people do to cover the 5 day week.
    35 hours would be the usual spread.

    What we will see is a reduction to a 35 hour week (without a change in workload) followed by a switch to that 4 day week of 9ish hour days.
    Many private sector companies have a short day Friday for office staff. It would not be too much of a stretch to go to 4 day working week working extra hours during the week and cover could easily be maintained by making some staff have the Monday off and some the Friday off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Leon said:

    I’ve got a strong “Leon-sense” that the worm is turning on Brexit. People are coming round to it. Realising what a good idea it was: indeed the only choice

    Within 2 years those still regretting it will be a minority, and probably a paltry minority. Something like 2%?

    Within three to five years people will start ejaculating - literally and physically cumming in their underwear - at the mere idea we Brexited. After that it will only grow in popularity

    Ah yes, the man who said Liz Truss would surprise on the upside has spoken.

    Lads, time to bet the farm on the UK rejoining the EU within six months.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    I predict more of this if Just Stop Oil don't stop.

    A Just Stop Oil activist was seen falling to the ground after a car drove through groups of protesters.

    In footage posted to social media groups, orange-clad demonstrators can be seen holding signs in a demonstration on Holloway Road, north London.

    In the video, a grey Renault drives next to a group of eco-activists holding a large "Just Stop Oil" sign.

    In the gaggle of protesters, at least one person appears to put their hand on the car's bonnet and another appears to stand in front of the vehicle.

    A car horn can be heard blaring as a man's arm is seen flailing through the air before he appears to drop to the ground.

    Fellow protesters then huddle around the fallen activist as the car drives off.

    In the background, someone can be heard asking: "Are you okay?"

    Another person appears to suggest the vehicle "ran over" the person's foot.

    The Metropolitan Police are understood to be aware of the incident.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/02/just-stop-oil-car-drives-through-protest-holloway-road-lond/
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,198
    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    So what do people make of this trend, being pushed by those on the left of politics, for a 4 day working week with no loss of pay.

    It seems to be a success in many businesses although those judging it are, effectively, marking their own homework as they are often the advocates of it.

    Quite frankly I would be delighted if my workplace adopted it. I shall send it to HR to consider as part of the negotiations this year.

    It is hard to see how, where a job is manual labour, where this can work. If you can produce 100 widgets an hour from a machine you cannot suddenly produce 125 an hour to make up for the operator not being there. If that was the case it would have been done previously to recover more overheads on the asset.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/south-cambridgeshire-council-s-four-day-work-week-trial-hailed-a-success/ar-AA1aA9yu

    Ultimately market forces will determine working practices and pay. I see this as the pay equivalent of shrinkflation. The shrinkflation phenomenon involving brands reducing the size of their products (usually confectionary) instead of increasing the price. This is the employment equivalent.

    Many in my field work 4 days a week anyway, and those who have sought after skills are earning what someone else might get for 5 days.
    The 4 days idea is (generally) do 40 hours in 4 days. Then spread the days that people do to cover the 5 day week.
    I've done compressed working, it's good every few weeks, but long term it breaks you.

    Particularly when a shit show happens on day 5.
    But is this compressed working as being implemented now.

    its advocates are talking of it in terms of reducing waste and needless activities that would otherwise fill a week rather than doing 5 days work in 4 days.

    Effectively this is not going from 40 hours in 5 days to 40 hours in 4 days. It is going to 32 hours in 4 days. So 20% of what was done before, or 10-15% assuming productivity improves, must no longer need to be done.
    Certainly I am paid to work for five days a week, but overall probably work for about three of them. I submit me commenting on here as evidence.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    edited May 2023
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    "I tend to regard LAB voting intention to signify being anti-Tory and that people will vote in their elections for the party locally they perceive as being most likely to beat the Conservatives".

    I'm sure that's correct. The problem most people seem to have is knowing which party in their ward has most chance of causing hurt to the Tories. Surprisingly few seem to even know which party is currently in charge.

    Voters are generally not very clever. Most have no idea who their MP is, nor which party they represent. I wonder how many have no idea whether the Govt is Tory or Labour ?
    Apparently it's quite common for voters to say things like "I'm going to vote for the Labour because they want to stop all those immigrants".
    They're in for a shock.
    Nearly 100 a day arriving by small boats each day at the moment.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    We were assured by PB Tories that the threat of Rwanda would stop the boats.
    So everyone looks at the 100 a day arriving by boat.

    And ignore the 2-3,000 who arrive by plane to take a (often low paid) job here
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,218

    Taz said:

    Former BBC journalist, who left to become a reparations campaigner, whose family have made reparations to Grenada for their impact on slavery, a modest amount compared to their wealth, is now facing demands, and refusing, to pay reparations for her ancestors role in the Irish Famine.

    Interesting this. Once this Pandora's box is opened, who know where it goes.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ex-bbc-journalist-urged-to-pay-reparations-for-ancestor-s-role-in-irish-famine/ar-AA1aBfIj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=514863f7b6d04e9a932afb6cf55d4312&ei=10

    Is she refusing? As I understand it she is open to the idea, but makes the point that while her ancestors' involvement in slavery was for personal profit, thus contributing directly to her family's subsequent wealth, their role in the Irish famine was as a public official - they were simply implementing government policy not acting for personal gain. That seems a relevant distinction when it comes to reparations.
    It's an interesting subject, anyway. As far as I know my ancestors were all relative nobodies, working and lower middle class folk from England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales whose only involvement in the Irish famine was as potential victims of it, although there is a family legend of some ancestor who was involved in anti-slavery activity in the 17th century. But who knows, that far back it is entirely possible we have some wealthy ancestors whose descendents lost or were cut out of the family fortune.
    Unlike others I don't think this kind of exercise is tokenistic or pointless, partly because I lived in the Caribbean for a number of years and I know how deeply the scars of slavery are still felt, and think the amnesia about it here is something that needed rectifying. Where exactly the discussion lands is unclear but it is worth having.
    The distinction does seem pretty fair. The notion of reparations after several generations have passed can only make sense if the current generation is benefitting from wealth created at the time. Otherwise it's visiting the sins of the fathers on the sons (and for example would imply the grandchildren of Harold Shipman or Fred West should be compensating the children of their victims).

    If there is inherited wealth with a slavery root to it then reparations have some logic as a form of retrospective inheritance tax.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,476
    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Oh great we're back on the wanting another democratic vote is not democratic bandwagon.

    Excellent.

    I'd go further. There should never be another vote on anything once there has already been a vote on that thing. Whether Police & Crime Commissioners, General Election, In/Out referendums, you name it.

    Much more democratic that way.

    Oh, great, we're back on the wilfully misrepresenting the other point of view bandwagon.
    It has been said many times, perhaps by you not a few times, that having another vote on EU membership would not be democratic.
    No.

    It was said that having another vote in an attempt to overturn the first vote instead of implementing it would have been anti-democratic.

    Having a rejoin vote now that Brexit has happened would be prefectly democratic.

    Democracy: people vote, things happen, people vote again.

    Not democracy: people vote, politicians say "you voted the wrong way, vote again".
    Nah that's bollocks. A vote is a vote. It would have been the same people voting.
    Sorry, no.

    If you really can't see the difference between "people vote for something, thing happens, people can then vote for something different" and "people vote for it, politicians say they can't have it and need to vote differently" then there's really no help for you.

    But I'm sure you actually can see the difference.
    He’s just trying to compensate for the poor quality of Russian trolls we’ve been having recently
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,038

    HYUFD said:

    Is this where HYUFD pops up and insists again that if you compare the General Election voting intention polls to the post-Local Election NEV calculation (rather than compare GE opinion polls to GE opinion polls to get a flavour of opinion shifting), the Lib Dems are well down whilst the Tories are level and therefore there is a guaranteed swing to the Tories from the Lib Dems and a swathe of seats will go blue from yellow?

    You may dislike it but in councils the LDs gained in 2019 like Chelmsford or Guidlford or Waverley or South Oxfordshire or now control like Tunbridge Wells there is potential for Tory gains on current polls. My parents live in Tunbridge Wells and the local LD council is already unpopular due to parking restrictions etc. Same goes for potential Tory gains in Residents controlled areas like Uttlesford
    There may be local possibilities for gains, but not based on current polls, which have Tories and Lib Dems almost exactly where they were four years ago. Specific councils or councillors having unpopularity isn't based on current polls. Hell, the 2017 Oxfordshire County Council election happened during the height of Theresa May's popularity and by rights the LDs should have been erased; instead they made a couple of actual gains. Due to local being different from national.

    Comparing GE opinion polls to NEV calculations is comparing apples to armchairs. LDs always have a big boost in NEV calculations versus opinion polls (which is why anyone extrapolating the NEV share coming out of here directly to a General Election will be as misleading in the other direction, but some media commentators are bound to do just that).
    I've now gone back (thanks to a spreadsheet by Mark Pack) to compare LE calculated vote share (from the BBC, as that's the one cited by HYUFD) to the LD opinion polling in advance of the Local Election.

    2022: Polling share 10%; LE vote share 19%
    2021: Polling share 7%; LE vote share 15%
    2020: Not available
    2019: Polling share 9%; LE vote share 19%
    2018: Polling share 8%; LE vote share 16%
    2017: Polling share 10%; LE vote share 18%
    2016: Polling share 7%; LE vote share 15%

    Looking further back, the picture appears similar - except when a General Election is held simultaneously with the Local Elections (I assume the higher turnout wipes out most of the apparent benefit to the LDs).

    The average "Over" the polls since 2000 (excepting ones held alongside General Elections) has been 7%, ranging from 3% to 13%.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,476

    algarkirk said:

    Roger said:

    "I tend to regard LAB voting intention to signify being anti-Tory and that people will vote in their elections for the party locally they perceive as being most likely to beat the Conservatives".

    I'm sure that's correct. The problem most people seem to have is knowing which party in their ward has most chance of causing hurt to the Tories. Surprisingly few seem to even know which party is currently in charge.

    Voters are generally not very clever. Most have no idea who their MP is, nor which party they represent. I wonder how many have no idea whether the Govt is Tory or Labour ?
    Many people have other things to do. This does not matter. The difference between UK and North Korea or Sudan is not that we as a whole are engaged or excited about policy wonkery, it's that we can, and do, non-violently replace them.

    I am not at all excited about supermarkets, but I know that if we have unfettered and equal access to two (or more), even if they look much the same, it is very different from only having access to one.

    A lot of USA folks are very excited about politics. That's because one of two options has fascist tendencies. let's have two dull candidates please.
    Your wish has been granted; in fact, we
    Lhave three dull candidates.
    One of whom is so dull no one rememb…

    Sorry, what was I talking about?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited May 2023
    Brexit reversal is going to be a generational thing. It will happen when Freedom of Movement and Sterling are no longer touchstone issues. Contactless payments and the demise of notes and coins will do a lot of heavy lifting for the latter; the increasing wealth of Central and Eastern European EU member states, and slower longer-term UK growth, will do a lot for the former. But it is going to take many years to work through. There is not going to be any quick return.

    In the meantime, there will clearly be a much closer relationship - especially if Labour wins the next general election, whatever Starmer and co say now.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Taz said:

    Former BBC journalist, who left to become a reparations campaigner, whose family have made reparations to Grenada for their impact on slavery, a modest amount compared to their wealth, is now facing demands, and refusing, to pay reparations for her ancestors role in the Irish Famine.

    Interesting this. Once this Pandora's box is opened, who know where it goes.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ex-bbc-journalist-urged-to-pay-reparations-for-ancestor-s-role-in-irish-famine/ar-AA1aBfIj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=514863f7b6d04e9a932afb6cf55d4312&ei=10

    It's effin nuts.

    My ancestors on both sides were forced into exile because of the famine, landing in Liverpool to live in destitution only just preferable to certain death in Mayo or Roscommon. Do I therefore deserve a few quid? Of course not! Do I need an apology? Not really either. I'm English - never thought of myself as anything other, and I'm not disadvantaged really in any way because of what happened to my great great great great grandparents. They had an awful time, but does that mean that I, their distant descendant, deserve (or want!) anything from a distant descendent of Trevelyan? No. Bad people did bad shit to other people and have done so since the hominids first saw the Black Monolith and started whacking each other with bone clubs.

    Logically, where does it end? I had great grandparent in the army - he served in India. Should I just redirect the Trevelyan famine rebate directly to Jabalpur? Does everyone whose ancestor laboured in the mills and fields deserve something from their employers' descendent? What of the Vikings? The Romans? The Beaker Folk?

    Whether or not you agree with reparations for slavery, it is fundamentally different; slavery was an entire economic system that has left an ongoing legacy. Different again would be e.g. the wealth, art and property expropriated from my wife's ancestors by the Nazis when they fled Berlin - that was within (still) living memory.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547
    Taz said:

    Former BBC journalist, who left to become a reparations campaigner, whose family have made reparations to Grenada for their impact on slavery, a modest amount compared to their wealth, is now facing demands, and refusing, to pay reparations for her ancestors role in the Irish Famine.

    Interesting this. Once this Pandora's box is opened, who know where it goes.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ex-bbc-journalist-urged-to-pay-reparations-for-ancestor-s-role-in-irish-famine/ar-AA1aBfIj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=514863f7b6d04e9a932afb6cf55d4312&ei=10

    Once you start paying the Danegeld, you never get rid of the Dane.

    She seems naive to me. Irish Republicans were engaging in whatabouttery, towards her, ie she doesn’t get to criticise their wrongs, because of the behaviour of one of her ancestors.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    I’m just short of ten miles into today’s trek, with about thirteen more to go (haven’t booked a room for tonight yet, so not sure). Quimper, where I stayed last night, was another beautiful and interesting city, though almost certainly less vibrant than usual due to it being May Day. The emptiness of the square around the cathedral was a bonus as a result

    About three quarters of the restaurants were shut, but I found a nice crêperie (at the end of Salt Street, on Butter Place!) where I had a really quite delicious scallop galette. The sauce was superb: cream, garlic, shallots, mushrooms and cidre, and washed down with another bottle of wine

    Today’s walk has probably been the toughest yet; I’ve been over five pretty big hills already, it’s much hotter today and there’s far less shade. I’m taking a few more breaks than usual, but keeping on going..

    I still have no blisters on my feet, but have had three on my left ear from the sun that have burst and turned into scabs. Hopefully now I’m into the northern part of the walk I’ll get some on my right ear to balance them out!

    Would you say it was without Quimper?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,843

    Leon said:

    I’ve got a strong “Leon-sense” that the worm is turning on Brexit. People are coming round to it. Realising what a good idea it was: indeed the only choice

    Within 2 years those still regretting it will be a minority, and probably a paltry minority. Something like 2%?

    Within three to five years people will start ejaculating - literally and physically cumming in their underwear - at the mere idea we Brexited. After that it will only grow in popularity

    Ah yes, the man who said Liz Truss would surprise on the upside has spoken.

    Lads, time to bet the farm on the UK rejoining the EU within six months.
    Balls deep on Everton......
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,476
    TOPPING said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Oh great we're back on the wanting another democratic vote is not democratic bandwagon.

    Excellent.

    I'd go further. There should never be another vote on anything once there has already been a vote on that thing. Whether Police & Crime Commissioners, General Election, In/Out referendums, you name it.

    Much more democratic that way.

    Oh, great, we're back on the wilfully misrepresenting the other point of view bandwagon.
    It has been said many times, perhaps by you not a few times, that having another vote on EU membership would not be democratic.
    No.

    It was said that having another vote in an attempt to overturn the first vote instead of implementing it would have been anti-democratic.

    Having a rejoin vote now that Brexit has happened would be prefectly democratic.

    Democracy: people vote, things happen, people vote again.

    Not democracy: people vote, politicians say "you voted the wrong way, vote again".
    Oh and politicians say "you voted the wrong way, vote again" at every General Election.
    No, not really. The 2015 general election didn't reverse the 2010 general election because the 650 winners of that election became MPs for the duration of the 2010 parliament. Candidates don't have to win two elections to become MPs, no matter how egregious.
    You seem to be having a problem with this. There are two issues which you seem unable to grasp.

    You are talking about the same people who voted for Option A instead of Option B being asked to vote again to decide upon Option A or Option B. If you said we want a bunch of aliens to come in and vote between A & B then yes absolutely you would have a point. But it is the same people so some of those who originally voted for one option might then have decided to vote for the other. Perfectly democratic. It is never undemocratic to ask the people to vote on something. Impractical, an admin nightmare maybe, but not undemocratic.

    And wrt your GE example, by your reckoning every manifesto pledge would have to be enacted before there could be another general election to choose a new government.
    Let’s take your example:

    Topping’s approach:

    Q. Do you want aliens to come in?
    A. Yes
    Q. Did you really mean that?

    Driver’s approach

    Q. Do you want aliens to come in?
    A. Yes
    Aliens come in
    Q. Do you want to kick the aliens out?

    See the difference?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,198

    BBC WATO going in deep to condemn Gray via James Cleverly. Second story on WATO.

    This seems, admittedly from afar, a Westminster gossip story, of no interest to anyone except Big G.

    The other problem is that it kind of implies that Boris was unfairly done by, which nobody but nobody believes.
    I would submit that Westminster gossip stories matter to the one group that will decide her political future - the “Whitehall bubble”. The issue that decides her fate won’t be whether she acted properly or not, it will be about her poor political judgment in letting herself be exposed to this criticism.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049
    I am quite enjoying playing with ChatGPT. I think this is pretty good all in all. Next time I will ask it to add a cast.


    Write a plot outline for a 6 part, 25 minute, BBC Drama in the style of Francis Durbridge, set in 1973

    ChatGPT
    Title: The Disappearance of Diana

    Part 1: "The Disappearance"
    Set in 1973, Diana, a wealthy heiress, goes missing from her home in London. Her husband, Michael, reports her missing to the police, and an investigation is launched. Michael appears distraught, but as the investigation progresses, the police begin to suspect that he might be involved in her disappearance.

    Part 2: "The Secret Life"
    The police discover that Diana had a secret life, including a lover and a hidden bank account. They interview her lover, a wealthy businessman, and he denies any involvement in her disappearance. The police also uncover evidence that Michael was having financial difficulties, and they begin to suspect that he might have killed Diana for her money.

    Part 3: "The Blackmailer"
    As the investigation continues, the police receive a letter from someone claiming to know what happened to Diana. The letter writer demands a large sum of money in exchange for the information. The police suspect that the letter writer might be the kidnapper or killer.

    Part 4: "The Suspects"
    The police investigate the people close to Diana, including her lover and Michael's business associates. They uncover new evidence that points towards Michael as the prime suspect. Michael denies any involvement in Diana's disappearance, but the police are not convinced.

    Part 5: "The Breakthrough"
    The police make a breakthrough in the case when they find Diana's body buried in a remote location. The autopsy reveals that she was killed by a single gunshot wound to the head. The police intensify their investigation and focus on Michael as the main suspect.

    Part 6: "The Reveal"
    In the final episode, the police gather all the suspects together for a dramatic reveal. They announce that Michael was the one who killed Diana and staged her disappearance to cover up the crime. They reveal the evidence, including the murder weapon and a confession letter from Michael. Michael is arrested, and justice is served. The drama ends with the family mourning the loss of Diana, and the police reflecting on their successful investigation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984

    Leon said:

    I’ve got a strong “Leon-sense” that the worm is turning on Brexit. People are coming round to it. Realising what a good idea it was: indeed the only choice

    Within 2 years those still regretting it will be a minority, and probably a paltry minority. Something like 2%?

    Within three to five years people will start ejaculating - literally and physically cumming in their underwear - at the mere idea we Brexited. After that it will only grow in popularity

    Ah yes, the man who said Liz Truss would surprise on the upside has spoken.

    Lads, time to bet the farm on the UK rejoining the EU within six months.
    Balls deep on Everton......
    Made a profit on that match.

    DCL as FGS also helped.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547
    Ghedebrav said:

    Taz said:

    Former BBC journalist, who left to become a reparations campaigner, whose family have made reparations to Grenada for their impact on slavery, a modest amount compared to their wealth, is now facing demands, and refusing, to pay reparations for her ancestors role in the Irish Famine.

    Interesting this. Once this Pandora's box is opened, who know where it goes.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ex-bbc-journalist-urged-to-pay-reparations-for-ancestor-s-role-in-irish-famine/ar-AA1aBfIj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=514863f7b6d04e9a932afb6cf55d4312&ei=10

    It's effin nuts.

    My ancestors on both sides were forced into exile because of the famine, landing in Liverpool to live in destitution only just preferable to certain death in Mayo or Roscommon. Do I therefore deserve a few quid? Of course not! Do I need an apology? Not really either. I'm English - never thought of myself as anything other, and I'm not disadvantaged really in any way because of what happened to my great great great great grandparents. They had an awful time, but does that mean that I, their distant descendant, deserve (or want!) anything from a distant descendent of Trevelyan? No. Bad people did bad shit to other people and have done so since the hominids first saw the Black Monolith and started whacking each other with bone clubs.

    Logically, where does it end? I had great grandparent in the army - he served in India. Should I just redirect the Trevelyan famine rebate directly to Jabalpur? Does everyone whose ancestor laboured in the mills and fields deserve something from their employers' descendent? What of the Vikings? The Romans? The Beaker Folk?

    Whether or not you agree with reparations for slavery, it is fundamentally different; slavery was an entire economic system that has left an ongoing legacy. Different again would be e.g. the wealth, art and property expropriated from my wife's ancestors by the Nazis when they fled Berlin - that was within (still) living memory.
    Ditto. Most of my 19th century ancestors were Irish or Somerset farm labourers, whose status rose in the 1900’s.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    I predict more of this if Just Stop Oil don't stop.

    A Just Stop Oil activist was seen falling to the ground after a car drove through groups of protesters.

    In footage posted to social media groups, orange-clad demonstrators can be seen holding signs in a demonstration on Holloway Road, north London.

    In the video, a grey Renault drives next to a group of eco-activists holding a large "Just Stop Oil" sign.

    In the gaggle of protesters, at least one person appears to put their hand on the car's bonnet and another appears to stand in front of the vehicle.

    A car horn can be heard blaring as a man's arm is seen flailing through the air before he appears to drop to the ground.

    Fellow protesters then huddle around the fallen activist as the car drives off.

    In the background, someone can be heard asking: "Are you okay?"

    Another person appears to suggest the vehicle "ran over" the person's foot.

    The Metropolitan Police are understood to be aware of the incident.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/02/just-stop-oil-car-drives-through-protest-holloway-road-lond/

    He'll probably get a fine from ol' Mark Wokeley.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049
    edited May 2023

    I predict more of this if Just Stop Oil don't stop.

    A Just Stop Oil activist was seen falling to the ground after a car drove through groups of protesters.

    In footage posted to social media groups, orange-clad demonstrators can be seen holding signs in a demonstration on Holloway Road, north London.

    In the video, a grey Renault drives next to a group of eco-activists holding a large "Just Stop Oil" sign.

    In the gaggle of protesters, at least one person appears to put their hand on the car's bonnet and another appears to stand in front of the vehicle.

    A car horn can be heard blaring as a man's arm is seen flailing through the air before he appears to drop to the ground.

    Fellow protesters then huddle around the fallen activist as the car drives off.

    In the background, someone can be heard asking: "Are you okay?"

    Another person appears to suggest the vehicle "ran over" the person's foot.

    The Metropolitan Police are understood to be aware of the incident.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/02/just-stop-oil-car-drives-through-protest-holloway-road-lond/

    Irresonsible behaviour by the protestors when the car was clearly moving forward and to the side of them. They seem to try to get in its way. Sadly it looks like the driver could not avoid a collision.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    edited May 2023
    Ghedebrav said:

    Taz said:

    Former BBC journalist, who left to become a reparations campaigner, whose family have made reparations to Grenada for their impact on slavery, a modest amount compared to their wealth, is now facing demands, and refusing, to pay reparations for her ancestors role in the Irish Famine.

    Interesting this. Once this Pandora's box is opened, who know where it goes.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ex-bbc-journalist-urged-to-pay-reparations-for-ancestor-s-role-in-irish-famine/ar-AA1aBfIj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=514863f7b6d04e9a932afb6cf55d4312&ei=10

    It's effin nuts.

    My ancestors on both sides were forced into exile because of the famine, landing in Liverpool to live in destitution only just preferable to certain death in Mayo or Roscommon. Do I therefore deserve a few quid? Of course not! Do I need an apology? Not really either. I'm English - never thought of myself as anything other, and I'm not disadvantaged really in any way because of what happened to my great great great great grandparents. They had an awful time, but does that mean that I, their distant descendant, deserve (or want!) anything from a distant descendent of Trevelyan? No. Bad people did bad shit to other people and have done so since the hominids first saw the Black Monolith and started whacking each other with bone clubs.

    Logically, where does it end? I had great grandparent in the army - he served in India. Should I just redirect the Trevelyan famine rebate directly to Jabalpur? Does everyone whose ancestor laboured in the mills and fields deserve something from their employers' descendent? What of the Vikings? The Romans? The Beaker Folk?

    Whether or not you agree with reparations for slavery, it is fundamentally different; slavery was an entire economic system that has left an ongoing legacy. Different again would be e.g. the wealth, art and property expropriated from my wife's ancestors by the Nazis when they fled Berlin - that was within (still) living memory.
    Look, I'm happy to accept reparations from anyone and their families who profited from the British Empire in India/Pakistan whilst my antecedents suffered.

    I will put the money to good use such as a holiday, deposit for a new people carrier, and more properties in my property portfolio.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Ghedebrav said:

    Taz said:

    Former BBC journalist, who left to become a reparations campaigner, whose family have made reparations to Grenada for their impact on slavery, a modest amount compared to their wealth, is now facing demands, and refusing, to pay reparations for her ancestors role in the Irish Famine.

    Interesting this. Once this Pandora's box is opened, who know where it goes.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ex-bbc-journalist-urged-to-pay-reparations-for-ancestor-s-role-in-irish-famine/ar-AA1aBfIj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=514863f7b6d04e9a932afb6cf55d4312&ei=10

    It's effin nuts.

    My ancestors on both sides were forced into exile because of the famine, landing in Liverpool to live in destitution only just preferable to certain death in Mayo or Roscommon. Do I therefore deserve a few quid? Of course not! Do I need an apology? Not really either. I'm English - never thought of myself as anything other, and I'm not disadvantaged really in any way because of what happened to my great great great great grandparents. They had an awful time, but does that mean that I, their distant descendant, deserve (or want!) anything from a distant descendent of Trevelyan? No. Bad people did bad shit to other people and have done so since the hominids first saw the Black Monolith and started whacking each other with bone clubs.

    Logically, where does it end? I had great grandparent in the army - he served in India. Should I just redirect the Trevelyan famine rebate directly to Jabalpur? Does everyone whose ancestor laboured in the mills and fields deserve something from their employers' descendent? What of the Vikings? The Romans? The Beaker Folk?

    Whether or not you agree with reparations for slavery, it is fundamentally different; slavery was an entire economic system that has left an ongoing legacy. Different again would be e.g. the wealth, art and property expropriated from my wife's ancestors by the Nazis when they fled Berlin - that was within (still) living memory.
    Youve already had an apology

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/blair-issues-apology-for-irish-potato-famine-1253790.html

    As for Trevelyan her ancestor in the Liberal government was undoubtedly responsible for heaping on the misery, though where shes going to find the money to compensate 6+million people adequately may be the challenge,
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,198

    Brexit reversal is going to be a generational thing. It will happen when Freedom of Movement and Sterling are no longer touchstone issues. Contactless payments and the demise of notes and coins will do a lot of heavy lifting for the latter; the increasing wealth of Central and Eastern European EU member states, and slower longer-term UK growth, will do a lot for the former. But it is going to take many years to work through. There is not going to be any quick return.

    In the meantime, there will clearly be a much closer relationship - especially if Labour wins the next general election, whatever Starmer and co say now.

    I submit that in that period the EU will have changed into something the average Brit no longer wishes to join for many other reasons. What everyone forgets in this debate is that the EU isn’t static and we are no longer there to stop certain ideas. For me that’s useful - it’s not ideal for rejoiners.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    biggles said:

    Brexit reversal is going to be a generational thing. It will happen when Freedom of Movement and Sterling are no longer touchstone issues. Contactless payments and the demise of notes and coins will do a lot of heavy lifting for the latter; the increasing wealth of Central and Eastern European EU member states, and slower longer-term UK growth, will do a lot for the former. But it is going to take many years to work through. There is not going to be any quick return.

    In the meantime, there will clearly be a much closer relationship - especially if Labour wins the next general election, whatever Starmer and co say now.

    I submit that in that period the EU will have changed into something the average Brit no longer wishes to join for many other reasons. What everyone forgets in this debate is that the EU isn’t static and we are no longer there to stop certain ideas. For me that’s useful - it’s not ideal for rejoiners.
    It will be up to the AI soon enough anyway.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    ...

    On the latest (Brexity) Merryn Somerset Webb podcast, the economist Dambisa Moyo says that everywhere is a bit screwed, but that Britain is just extra screwed because of Brexit.

    The main crime, in her opinion, was/is the lack of any coherent economic strategy for the country.

    (She’s also quite worried about the likely job losses coming around the corner from AI.)

    I need to look into her stuff - this is the second time I've heard mention of her (positive mention). She's of course right - even a broad direction of travel (low tax, easy regulation vs. protectionism, self-sufficiency, high Government intervention in key sectors) would be somewhat useful. At the moment we have the Government pulling in several different directions, and that's before you even get to the Civil Service, who seem to be running the show these days.
    I don’t know her, save that she appears to be broadly right wing. She serves on the board of Chevron, for a start.

    She pretty much makes your point; and says that the UK could go “low tax” or “high regulation”, both being viable models, but with a lack of strategy now has high tax, high regulation, and a poor trading position.

    Add the political volatility ensuing from Brexit and investors have run a mile.
    Dead Aid is a good read. I'm probably as soft-left wokey vegan muesli sandals as anyone on here, but her takedown of foreign aid in third world countries is tough to argue with (I read it after a trip to Uganda and seeing the weird White Landrover pocket universe that a lot of aid workers live in).

    Not sure I agree with her recommendations - she is pretty arch-capitalist - but her diagnosis is spot on.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,695
    Deleted vanilla
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049

    Ghedebrav said:

    Taz said:

    Former BBC journalist, who left to become a reparations campaigner, whose family have made reparations to Grenada for their impact on slavery, a modest amount compared to their wealth, is now facing demands, and refusing, to pay reparations for her ancestors role in the Irish Famine.

    Interesting this. Once this Pandora's box is opened, who know where it goes.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ex-bbc-journalist-urged-to-pay-reparations-for-ancestor-s-role-in-irish-famine/ar-AA1aBfIj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=514863f7b6d04e9a932afb6cf55d4312&ei=10

    It's effin nuts.

    My ancestors on both sides were forced into exile because of the famine, landing in Liverpool to live in destitution only just preferable to certain death in Mayo or Roscommon. Do I therefore deserve a few quid? Of course not! Do I need an apology? Not really either. I'm English - never thought of myself as anything other, and I'm not disadvantaged really in any way because of what happened to my great great great great grandparents. They had an awful time, but does that mean that I, their distant descendant, deserve (or want!) anything from a distant descendent of Trevelyan? No. Bad people did bad shit to other people and have done so since the hominids first saw the Black Monolith and started whacking each other with bone clubs.

    Logically, where does it end? I had great grandparent in the army - he served in India. Should I just redirect the Trevelyan famine rebate directly to Jabalpur? Does everyone whose ancestor laboured in the mills and fields deserve something from their employers' descendent? What of the Vikings? The Romans? The Beaker Folk?

    Whether or not you agree with reparations for slavery, it is fundamentally different; slavery was an entire economic system that has left an ongoing legacy. Different again would be e.g. the wealth, art and property expropriated from my wife's ancestors by the Nazis when they fled Berlin - that was within (still) living memory.
    Youve already had an apology

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/blair-issues-apology-for-irish-potato-famine-1253790.html

    As for Trevelyan her ancestor in the Liberal government was undoubtedly responsible for heaping on the misery, though where shes going to find the money to compensate 6+million people adequately may be the challenge,
    She will probably be able to pay from it from her earning in her new career as a roving reparations campaigner

    Whatever the rights and wrongs of this issue there will be a fair few people making a mint out of it, and it won't be the communities in the caribbean or wherever else. It will be the people administering it.

    Expect plenty of charities to line up to "help" with this issue.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,015

    Ghedebrav said:

    Taz said:

    Former BBC journalist, who left to become a reparations campaigner, whose family have made reparations to Grenada for their impact on slavery, a modest amount compared to their wealth, is now facing demands, and refusing, to pay reparations for her ancestors role in the Irish Famine.

    Interesting this. Once this Pandora's box is opened, who know where it goes.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ex-bbc-journalist-urged-to-pay-reparations-for-ancestor-s-role-in-irish-famine/ar-AA1aBfIj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=514863f7b6d04e9a932afb6cf55d4312&ei=10

    It's effin nuts.

    My ancestors on both sides were forced into exile because of the famine, landing in Liverpool to live in destitution only just preferable to certain death in Mayo or Roscommon. Do I therefore deserve a few quid? Of course not! Do I need an apology? Not really either. I'm English - never thought of myself as anything other, and I'm not disadvantaged really in any way because of what happened to my great great great great grandparents. They had an awful time, but does that mean that I, their distant descendant, deserve (or want!) anything from a distant descendent of Trevelyan? No. Bad people did bad shit to other people and have done so since the hominids first saw the Black Monolith and started whacking each other with bone clubs.

    Logically, where does it end? I had great grandparent in the army - he served in India. Should I just redirect the Trevelyan famine rebate directly to Jabalpur? Does everyone whose ancestor laboured in the mills and fields deserve something from their employers' descendent? What of the Vikings? The Romans? The Beaker Folk?

    Whether or not you agree with reparations for slavery, it is fundamentally different; slavery was an entire economic system that has left an ongoing legacy. Different again would be e.g. the wealth, art and property expropriated from my wife's ancestors by the Nazis when they fled Berlin - that was within (still) living memory.
    Look, I'm happy to accept reparations from anyone and their families who profited from the British Empire in India/Pakistan whilst my antecedents suffered.

    I will put the money to good use such as a holiday, deposit for a new people carrier, and more properties in my property portfolio.
    I fear you might not have been taught the right meaning of ‘modest’

    ‘Smug’ is probably the word you’ve been reaching for
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Ghedebrav said:

    Taz said:

    Former BBC journalist, who left to become a reparations campaigner, whose family have made reparations to Grenada for their impact on slavery, a modest amount compared to their wealth, is now facing demands, and refusing, to pay reparations for her ancestors role in the Irish Famine.

    Interesting this. Once this Pandora's box is opened, who know where it goes.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ex-bbc-journalist-urged-to-pay-reparations-for-ancestor-s-role-in-irish-famine/ar-AA1aBfIj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=514863f7b6d04e9a932afb6cf55d4312&ei=10

    It's effin nuts.

    My ancestors on both sides were forced into exile because of the famine, landing in Liverpool to live in destitution only just preferable to certain death in Mayo or Roscommon. Do I therefore deserve a few quid? Of course not! Do I need an apology? Not really either. I'm English - never thought of myself as anything other, and I'm not disadvantaged really in any way because of what happened to my great great great great grandparents. They had an awful time, but does that mean that I, their distant descendant, deserve (or want!) anything from a distant descendent of Trevelyan? No. Bad people did bad shit to other people and have done so since the hominids first saw the Black Monolith and started whacking each other with bone clubs.

    Logically, where does it end? I had great grandparent in the army - he served in India. Should I just redirect the Trevelyan famine rebate directly to Jabalpur? Does everyone whose ancestor laboured in the mills and fields deserve something from their employers' descendent? What of the Vikings? The Romans? The Beaker Folk?

    Whether or not you agree with reparations for slavery, it is fundamentally different; slavery was an entire economic system that has left an ongoing legacy. Different again would be e.g. the wealth, art and property expropriated from my wife's ancestors by the Nazis when they fled Berlin - that was within (still) living memory.
    Youve already had an apology

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/blair-issues-apology-for-irish-potato-famine-1253790.html

    As for Trevelyan her ancestor in the Liberal government was undoubtedly responsible for heaping on the misery, though where shes going to find the money to compensate 6+million people adequately may be the challenge,
    It will be exponentially more than 6 milllion! I missed call-me-Tony's apology, though tbf I can see the political expediency of doing so and acknowledging a bit of the British state's track record of pretty bad behaviour in Ireland.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,976

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    So what do people make of this trend, being pushed by those on the left of politics, for a 4 day working week with no loss of pay.

    It seems to be a success in many businesses although those judging it are, effectively, marking their own homework as they are often the advocates of it.

    Quite frankly I would be delighted if my workplace adopted it. I shall send it to HR to consider as part of the negotiations this year.

    It is hard to see how, where a job is manual labour, where this can work. If you can produce 100 widgets an hour from a machine you cannot suddenly produce 125 an hour to make up for the operator not being there. If that was the case it would have been done previously to recover more overheads on the asset.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/south-cambridgeshire-council-s-four-day-work-week-trial-hailed-a-success/ar-AA1aA9yu

    Ultimately market forces will determine working practices and pay. I see this as the pay equivalent of shrinkflation. The shrinkflation phenomenon involving brands reducing the size of their products (usually confectionary) instead of increasing the price. This is the employment equivalent.

    Many in my field work 4 days a week anyway, and those who have sought after skills are earning what someone else might get for 5 days.
    The 4 days idea is (generally) do 40 hours in 4 days. Then spread the days that people do to cover the 5 day week.
    I've done compressed working, it's good every few weeks, but long term it breaks you.

    Particularly when a shit show happens on day 5.
    And the shitshow ALWAYS lands on day 5...

    Morrisons went to a 4 day week. Each buyer had a day off during the week. with different people off at different times. Amazing how crises always blew up on that day they weren't working...!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    So what do people make of this trend, being pushed by those on the left of politics, for a 4 day working week with no loss of pay.

    It seems to be a success in many businesses although those judging it are, effectively, marking their own homework as they are often the advocates of it.

    Quite frankly I would be delighted if my workplace adopted it. I shall send it to HR to consider as part of the negotiations this year.

    It is hard to see how, where a job is manual labour, where this can work. If you can produce 100 widgets an hour from a machine you cannot suddenly produce 125 an hour to make up for the operator not being there. If that was the case it would have been done previously to recover more overheads on the asset.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/south-cambridgeshire-council-s-four-day-work-week-trial-hailed-a-success/ar-AA1aA9yu

    Ultimately market forces will determine working practices and pay. I see this as the pay equivalent of shrinkflation. The shrinkflation phenomenon involving brands reducing the size of their products (usually confectionary) instead of increasing the price. This is the employment equivalent.

    Many in my field work 4 days a week anyway, and those who have sought after skills are earning what someone else might get for 5 days.
    The 4 days idea is (generally) do 40 hours in 4 days. Then spread the days that people do to cover the 5 day week.
    I've done compressed working, it's good every few weeks, but long term it breaks you.

    Particularly when a shit show happens on day 5.
    And the shitshow ALWAYS lands on day 5...

    Morrisons went to a 4 day week. Each buyer had a day off during the week. with different people off at different times. Amazing how crises always blew up on that day they weren't working...!
    It's weird though: somehow we managed to move from a six-day week to a five-day week in times past.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    Leon said:

    I’ve got a strong “Leon-sense” that the worm is turning on Brexit. People are coming round to it. Realising what a good idea it was: indeed the only choice

    Within 2 years those still regretting it will be a minority, and probably a paltry minority. Something like 2%?

    Within three to five years people will start ejaculating - literally and physically cumming in their underwear - at the mere idea we Brexited. After that it will only grow in popularity

    I think, by 2029, the popular clamour for the long-delayed "Festival of Brexit", replaced by that ridiculous anonymous nonsense about "celebrating Britain", will just be too great.

    Nigel Farage will lead a naval flotilla down the Thames, medals on his chest, and the Red Arrows will spray their multicoloured, magical mist on a country reborn.


    Yes. Quite. This is a betting site so let’s put some actual numbers on it. What are the chances that the Roman Catholic Church will disband and be replaced by a Marks and Spencer Union Jack branded toiletry range?

    Paris will be renamed Lord Hannan City by 2030
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/may/02/fifa-threatens-womens-world-cup-broadcast-blackout-in-europe-offers-rights-infantino

    Fifa’s president, Gianni Infantino, has warned that a TV blackout of this summer’s Women’s World Cup is on the cards in Europe unless broadcasters there improve on their “unacceptable” offers for the rights.

    Speaking at a World Trade Organization meeting in Geneva, Infantino said the bids from the big five countries – Britain, Spain, Italy, Germany and France – were so low compared with the men’s tournament that they amounted to a “slap in the face” of the players and “all women worldwide”.


    Interesting approach from FIFA. Not sure it will work.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    biggles said:

    Brexit reversal is going to be a generational thing. It will happen when Freedom of Movement and Sterling are no longer touchstone issues. Contactless payments and the demise of notes and coins will do a lot of heavy lifting for the latter; the increasing wealth of Central and Eastern European EU member states, and slower longer-term UK growth, will do a lot for the former. But it is going to take many years to work through. There is not going to be any quick return.

    In the meantime, there will clearly be a much closer relationship - especially if Labour wins the next general election, whatever Starmer and co say now.

    I submit that in that period the EU will have changed into something the average Brit no longer wishes to join for many other reasons. What everyone forgets in this debate is that the EU isn’t static and we are no longer there to stop certain ideas. For me that’s useful - it’s not ideal for rejoiners.
    I submit that anyone who wasn't keen on the EU in the first place is likely to submit that in that period the EU will have changed into something the average Brit no longer wishes to join for many other reasons.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,478
    edited May 2023
    Rumours of some of the most prolific posters on PB working as much as 4 days a week, let alone 5, are, I suspect, greatly exaggerated. At least those of us who are retired have an excuse.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    I noticed earlier every one was talking about local candidates - well my local town council candidate is Mark Oaten! He is standing in the next ward over 'Severn Vale' for South Gloucestershire Council. Certainly very exotic particularly the bedroom proclivities mentioned on his Wikipedia entry. My wife was shocked!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    CULTURE Secretary Angus Robertson has refused to be drawn on the Stand Comedy Club’s decision to cancel a show involving his SNP colleague Joanna Cherry.

    The venue axed the Fringe event after a number of "key operational staff, including venue management and box office personnel" said they were unwilling to work on the event because of “concerns about Ms Cherry's views.”


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23494392.culture-minister-refuses-comment-cherry-fringe-row/
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246

    biggles said:

    Brexit reversal is going to be a generational thing. It will happen when Freedom of Movement and Sterling are no longer touchstone issues. Contactless payments and the demise of notes and coins will do a lot of heavy lifting for the latter; the increasing wealth of Central and Eastern European EU member states, and slower longer-term UK growth, will do a lot for the former. But it is going to take many years to work through. There is not going to be any quick return.

    In the meantime, there will clearly be a much closer relationship - especially if Labour wins the next general election, whatever Starmer and co say now.

    I submit that in that period the EU will have changed into something the average Brit no longer wishes to join for many other reasons. What everyone forgets in this debate is that the EU isn’t static and we are no longer there to stop certain ideas. For me that’s useful - it’s not ideal for rejoiners.
    I submit that anyone who wasn't keen on the EU in the first place is likely to submit that in that period the EU will have changed into something the average Brit no longer wishes to join for many other reasons.
    Not quite. The large majority of people who now think Brexit a mistake include many that voted for it. Obviously.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    The big difference between Leavers and Remainers is that Leavers are stupid and Remainers are just as stupid - see @TOPPING et al - but Remainers are haughtily convinced they are much cleverer. This, in a weird way, makes Remainers even stupider - in practise - than Leavers, who are genuinely stupid

    Once you understand that, the entire farcical madness of Brexit is explicable, right down to the daily debates on here, still ongoing
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    Taz said:

    I predict more of this if Just Stop Oil don't stop.

    A Just Stop Oil activist was seen falling to the ground after a car drove through groups of protesters.

    In footage posted to social media groups, orange-clad demonstrators can be seen holding signs in a demonstration on Holloway Road, north London.

    In the video, a grey Renault drives next to a group of eco-activists holding a large "Just Stop Oil" sign.

    In the gaggle of protesters, at least one person appears to put their hand on the car's bonnet and another appears to stand in front of the vehicle.

    A car horn can be heard blaring as a man's arm is seen flailing through the air before he appears to drop to the ground.

    Fellow protesters then huddle around the fallen activist as the car drives off.

    In the background, someone can be heard asking: "Are you okay?"

    Another person appears to suggest the vehicle "ran over" the person's foot.

    The Metropolitan Police are understood to be aware of the incident.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/02/just-stop-oil-car-drives-through-protest-holloway-road-lond/

    Irresonsible behaviour by the protestors when the car was clearly moving forward and to the side of them. They seem to try to get in its way. Sadly it looks like the driver could not avoid a collision.
    He's driving a 1.5 tonne metal box into a bunch of protestors. Assault. Careless or dangerous driving. Failure to the stop at the scene of a collision.

    The police need to make an example of this driver to prevent people getting into their head that they can use their cars as weapons and get away with it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955

    Rumours of some of the most prolific posters on PB working as much as 4 days a week, let alone 5, are, I suspect, greatly exaggerated. At least those of us who are retired have an excuse.

    I've just got back from holiday...
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,138
    mwadams said:

    On the latest (Brexity) Merryn Somerset Webb podcast, the economist Dambisa Moyo says that everywhere is a bit screwed, but that Britain is just extra screwed because of Brexit.

    The main crime, in her opinion, is the lack of any coherent economic strategy for the country.

    (She’s also quite worried about the likely job losses coming around the corner from AI.)

    LOL

    the UK didnt have a coherent economic strartegy while we were in the EU plus ca change
    Of course.

    But it’s one thing not to have a map when your boat is sailing steadily if uncertainly down the Amazon.

    It’s another when you’ve deliberately shot several holes in the hull.
    The UK didnt have a map since 1992 we simply went with the flow.
    Agree somewhat.

    I do think there was a kind of map until 2008 when the GFC essentially destroyed the previous map/strategy/set of assumptions.

    Or course you and I would argue that the map was flawed anyway, given Britain’s trade balance and runaway house prices…
    I agree with that. There's a big difference between "no strategy, no plan, buffeted this way and that" and "pursuing a policy that I don't agree with".

    I'd rather have the latter than the former.

    ETA: [And when the wheels came off in 1992, we *did* pursue a new policy based on strategy and assumptions that worked rather well for a decade or so, across the KC & GB chancellorships]

    ETA again: [It was only when the strategy changed in ~2002 with GB's eternal growth fantasy that I started to disagree with it; but it was still a strategy]
    I think that's fair. It's not enough to have a strategy, you have to have the right strategy.

    As we would doubtless have found out in spectacular fashion had Corbyn won in 2019, and as was demonstrated from the other side last autumn.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    I predict more of this if Just Stop Oil don't stop.

    A Just Stop Oil activist was seen falling to the ground after a car drove through groups of protesters.

    In footage posted to social media groups, orange-clad demonstrators can be seen holding signs in a demonstration on Holloway Road, north London.

    In the video, a grey Renault drives next to a group of eco-activists holding a large "Just Stop Oil" sign.

    In the gaggle of protesters, at least one person appears to put their hand on the car's bonnet and another appears to stand in front of the vehicle.

    A car horn can be heard blaring as a man's arm is seen flailing through the air before he appears to drop to the ground.

    Fellow protesters then huddle around the fallen activist as the car drives off.

    In the background, someone can be heard asking: "Are you okay?"

    Another person appears to suggest the vehicle "ran over" the person's foot.

    The Metropolitan Police are understood to be aware of the incident.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/02/just-stop-oil-car-drives-through-protest-holloway-road-lond/

    Irresonsible behaviour by the protestors when the car was clearly moving forward and to the side of them. They seem to try to get in its way. Sadly it looks like the driver could not avoid a collision.
    He's driving a 1.5 tonne metal box into a bunch of protestors. Assault. Careless or dangerous driving. Failure to the stop at the scene of a collision.

    The police need to make an example of this driver to prevent people getting into their head that they can use their cars as weapons and get away with it.
    I dont think you should rush to judge this. The poor driver might have been running late to get to a demo stopping the coronation
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/may/02/fifa-threatens-womens-world-cup-broadcast-blackout-in-europe-offers-rights-infantino

    Fifa’s president, Gianni Infantino, has warned that a TV blackout of this summer’s Women’s World Cup is on the cards in Europe unless broadcasters there improve on their “unacceptable” offers for the rights.

    Speaking at a World Trade Organization meeting in Geneva, Infantino said the bids from the big five countries – Britain, Spain, Italy, Germany and France – were so low compared with the men’s tournament that they amounted to a “slap in the face” of the players and “all women worldwide”.


    Interesting approach from FIFA. Not sure it will work.

    Blatter would have tried driving up the TV bids by mandating skimpy shorts....

    Looks like most of the games kick off breakfast time in Europe which limits TV interest, but offering 1% of what they pay for the men's tournament when they are getting 50% of the audience figure is certainly taking the piss.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246

    BBC WATO going in deep to condemn Gray via James Cleverly. Second story on WATO.

    This seems, admittedly from afar, a Westminster gossip story, of no interest to anyone except Big G.

    The other problem is that it kind of implies that Boris was unfairly done by, which nobody but nobody believes.
    Don't people normally apply for jobs while still working for the first employer and only resign if they get it? Do they have anything more on Sue Gray than that?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    FF43 said:

    BBC WATO going in deep to condemn Gray via James Cleverly. Second story on WATO.

    This seems, admittedly from afar, a Westminster gossip story, of no interest to anyone except Big G.

    The other problem is that it kind of implies that Boris was unfairly done by, which nobody but nobody believes.
    Don't people normally apply for jobs while still working for the first employer and only resign if they get it? Do they have anything more on Sue Gray than that?
    They do. She has applied to work for Labour and is therefore deeply suspect. Goes without saying.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    I predict more of this if Just Stop Oil don't stop.

    A Just Stop Oil activist was seen falling to the ground after a car drove through groups of protesters.

    In footage posted to social media groups, orange-clad demonstrators can be seen holding signs in a demonstration on Holloway Road, north London.

    In the video, a grey Renault drives next to a group of eco-activists holding a large "Just Stop Oil" sign.

    In the gaggle of protesters, at least one person appears to put their hand on the car's bonnet and another appears to stand in front of the vehicle.

    A car horn can be heard blaring as a man's arm is seen flailing through the air before he appears to drop to the ground.

    Fellow protesters then huddle around the fallen activist as the car drives off.

    In the background, someone can be heard asking: "Are you okay?"

    Another person appears to suggest the vehicle "ran over" the person's foot.

    The Metropolitan Police are understood to be aware of the incident.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/02/just-stop-oil-car-drives-through-protest-holloway-road-lond/

    Irresonsible behaviour by the protestors when the car was clearly moving forward and to the side of them. They seem to try to get in its way. Sadly it looks like the driver could not avoid a collision.
    He's driving a 1.5 tonne metal box into a bunch of protestors. Assault. Careless or dangerous driving. Failure to the stop at the scene of a collision.

    The police need to make an example of this driver to prevent people getting into their head that they can use their cars as weapons and get away with it.
    I dont think you should rush to judge this. The poor driver might have been running late to get to a demo stopping the coronation
    I did enjoy the Duke of Norfolk trying to get out of a driving ban because of the "exceptional hardship" it would cause to his role organising the coronation.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Brexit reversal is going to be a generational thing. It will happen when Freedom of Movement and Sterling are no longer touchstone issues. Contactless payments and the demise of notes and coins will do a lot of heavy lifting for the latter; the increasing wealth of Central and Eastern European EU member states, and slower longer-term UK growth, will do a lot for the former. But it is going to take many years to work through. There is not going to be any quick return.

    In the meantime, there will clearly be a much closer relationship - especially if Labour wins the next general election, whatever Starmer and co say now.

    I submit that in that period the EU will have changed into something the average Brit no longer wishes to join for many other reasons. What everyone forgets in this debate is that the EU isn’t static and we are no longer there to stop certain ideas. For me that’s useful - it’s not ideal for rejoiners.
    I submit that anyone who wasn't keen on the EU in the first place is likely to submit that in that period the EU will have changed into something the average Brit no longer wishes to join for many other reasons.
    Not quite. The large majority of people who now think Brexit a mistake include many that voted for it. Obviously.
    Oh really dont kid yourself. Remoaners have a clear field on the PR front since leavers have moved on, If we had stayed in you would have a relentless diet of £20billion pissed up the wall each year, why did we have to give our gas to keep Germany's lights on, the sovereignty sleights of hand, immigration with no infrastructure to support it and the endless bureaucratic diktats.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    Leon said:

    The big difference between Leavers and Remainers is that Leavers are stupid and Remainers are just as stupid - see @TOPPING et al - but Remainers are haughtily convinced they are much cleverer. This, in a weird way, makes Remainers even stupider - in practise - than Leavers, who are genuinely stupid

    Once you understand that, the entire farcical madness of Brexit is explicable, right down to the daily debates on here, still ongoing

    Leavers or remainers may or may not be stupid.

    People who don't understand that it is perfectly democratic to ask the people about a decision that you previously asked them, nor that parliaments cannot bind successive parliaments, nor that parliament is sovereign are, however, very, very stupid indeed.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246
    edited May 2023

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Brexit reversal is going to be a generational thing. It will happen when Freedom of Movement and Sterling are no longer touchstone issues. Contactless payments and the demise of notes and coins will do a lot of heavy lifting for the latter; the increasing wealth of Central and Eastern European EU member states, and slower longer-term UK growth, will do a lot for the former. But it is going to take many years to work through. There is not going to be any quick return.

    In the meantime, there will clearly be a much closer relationship - especially if Labour wins the next general election, whatever Starmer and co say now.

    I submit that in that period the EU will have changed into something the average Brit no longer wishes to join for many other reasons. What everyone forgets in this debate is that the EU isn’t static and we are no longer there to stop certain ideas. For me that’s useful - it’s not ideal for rejoiners.
    I submit that anyone who wasn't keen on the EU in the first place is likely to submit that in that period the EU will have changed into something the average Brit no longer wishes to join for many other reasons.
    Not quite. The large majority of people who now think Brexit a mistake include many that voted for it. Obviously.
    Oh really dont kid yourself. Remoaners have a clear field on the PR front since leavers have moved on, If we had stayed in you would have a relentless diet of £20billion pissed up the wall each year, why did we have to give our gas to keep Germany's lights on, the sovereignty sleights of hand, immigration with no infrastructure to support it and the endless bureaucratic diktats.

    Indeed Brexiteers moved on, blaming their mess on those opposed to creating it in the first place. The obvious failure of Brexit is the reason why most people think it was a mistake, including those previously expecting a success.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    edited May 2023
    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    I predict more of this if Just Stop Oil don't stop.

    A Just Stop Oil activist was seen falling to the ground after a car drove through groups of protesters.

    In footage posted to social media groups, orange-clad demonstrators can be seen holding signs in a demonstration on Holloway Road, north London.

    In the video, a grey Renault drives next to a group of eco-activists holding a large "Just Stop Oil" sign.

    In the gaggle of protesters, at least one person appears to put their hand on the car's bonnet and another appears to stand in front of the vehicle.

    A car horn can be heard blaring as a man's arm is seen flailing through the air before he appears to drop to the ground.

    Fellow protesters then huddle around the fallen activist as the car drives off.

    In the background, someone can be heard asking: "Are you okay?"

    Another person appears to suggest the vehicle "ran over" the person's foot.

    The Metropolitan Police are understood to be aware of the incident.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/02/just-stop-oil-car-drives-through-protest-holloway-road-lond/

    Irresonsible behaviour by the protestors when the car was clearly moving forward and to the side of them. They seem to try to get in its way. Sadly it looks like the driver could not avoid a collision.
    He's driving a 1.5 tonne metal boxon a road into a bunch of protestors who shouldn't have been there.....

    The police need to clear the highways...
    FIFY
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    edited May 2023

    Ghedebrav said:

    Taz said:

    Former BBC journalist, who left to become a reparations campaigner, whose family have made reparations to Grenada for their impact on slavery, a modest amount compared to their wealth, is now facing demands, and refusing, to pay reparations for her ancestors role in the Irish Famine.

    Interesting this. Once this Pandora's box is opened, who know where it goes.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ex-bbc-journalist-urged-to-pay-reparations-for-ancestor-s-role-in-irish-famine/ar-AA1aBfIj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=514863f7b6d04e9a932afb6cf55d4312&ei=10

    It's effin nuts.

    My ancestors on both sides were forced into exile because of the famine, landing in Liverpool to live in destitution only just preferable to certain death in Mayo or Roscommon. Do I therefore deserve a few quid? Of course not! Do I need an apology? Not really either. I'm English - never thought of myself as anything other, and I'm not disadvantaged really in any way because of what happened to my great great great great grandparents. They had an awful time, but does that mean that I, their distant descendant, deserve (or want!) anything from a distant descendent of Trevelyan? No. Bad people did bad shit to other people and have done so since the hominids first saw the Black Monolith and started whacking each other with bone clubs.

    Logically, where does it end? I had great grandparent in the army - he served in India. Should I just redirect the Trevelyan famine rebate directly to Jabalpur? Does everyone whose ancestor laboured in the mills and fields deserve something from their employers' descendent? What of the Vikings? The Romans? The Beaker Folk?

    Whether or not you agree with reparations for slavery, it is fundamentally different; slavery was an entire economic system that has left an ongoing legacy. Different again would be e.g. the wealth, art and property expropriated from my wife's ancestors by the Nazis when they fled Berlin - that was within (still) living memory.
    Look, I'm happy to accept reparations from anyone and their families who profited from the British Empire in India/Pakistan whilst my antecedents suffered.

    I will put the money to good use such as a holiday, deposit for a new people carrier, and more properties in my property portfolio.
    I fear you might not have been taught the right meaning of ‘modest’

    ‘Smug’ is probably the word you’ve been reaching for
    I've often been described as brash, which I think is a synonym for modest.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,010

    Driver said:

    Carnyx said:

    Driver said:

    kamski said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    an EU Referendum is no different from any other democratic vote. You seem to think that it is.

    It was - because it's the first vote I can recall in British history where a significant number of politicians have tried to overturn it instead of following their instructions from the people.

    (Only in British history, though. The EU are past masters of this particular game, which is one of the reasons Leave won in the first place.)
    Rubbish.
    Sorry, no, that's exactly what happened. Large numbers of MPs were disobeying a direct instruction from the referendum.
    We were told the Referendum was non-binding.
    We were told the exact opposite.
    The 2011 AV referendum was legally binding, clearly a choice was made to make the 2016 EU referendum NOT legally binding. Of course politicians promised the result would be respected, but lots of campaign promises aren't carried out. It's undemocratic but how much of a problem it is is a practical question, rather than an absolute principle that can never be broken. For example, if there had been the same result but with a very low turnout, it would have been easier for politicians to say - let's think about this again.
    The government said in its official information booklet that the result of the referendum would be implemented.

    That wasn't a campaign pledge because it wasn't a Remain campaign leaflet.
    And what one government says cannot bind another. Basic element of the UK constitution, such as it is.
    Again, you're resorting to technicalities which is missing the point.
    The point is the EUref was non-binding, as per the legislation passed by our democratically elected HoC. The government chose to commit to respect the outcome, which was their prerogative, but the legislation defined it as non-binding so neither MPs nor the government would have been breaking the law had they ignored it.

    Those MPs 'disobeying a direct instruction from the referendum' were doing their job, which is to govern in what they believe to be the best interests of their constituents and the country.
    Again, you're resorting to technicalities which is missing the point.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    edited May 2023
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Carnyx said:

    Driver said:

    kamski said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    an EU Referendum is no different from any other democratic vote. You seem to think that it is.

    It was - because it's the first vote I can recall in British history where a significant number of politicians have tried to overturn it instead of following their instructions from the people.

    (Only in British history, though. The EU are past masters of this particular game, which is one of the reasons Leave won in the first place.)
    Rubbish.
    Sorry, no, that's exactly what happened. Large numbers of MPs were disobeying a direct instruction from the referendum.
    We were told the Referendum was non-binding.
    We were told the exact opposite.
    The 2011 AV referendum was legally binding, clearly a choice was made to make the 2016 EU referendum NOT legally binding. Of course politicians promised the result would be respected, but lots of campaign promises aren't carried out. It's undemocratic but how much of a problem it is is a practical question, rather than an absolute principle that can never be broken. For example, if there had been the same result but with a very low turnout, it would have been easier for politicians to say - let's think about this again.
    The government said in its official information booklet that the result of the referendum would be implemented.

    That wasn't a campaign pledge because it wasn't a Remain campaign leaflet.
    And what one government says cannot bind another. Basic element of the UK constitution, such as it is.
    Again, you're resorting to technicalities which is missing the point.
    The point is the EUref was non-binding, as per the legislation passed by our democratically elected HoC. The government chose to commit to respect the outcome, which was their prerogative, but the legislation defined it as non-binding so neither MPs nor the government would have been breaking the law had they ignored it.

    Those MPs 'disobeying a direct instruction from the referendum' were doing their job, which is to govern in what they believe to be the best interests of their constituents and the country.
    Again, you're resorting to technicalities which is missing the point.
    Yes the technicalities of the democratic process by which we live are very fiddly. But as a clever Leaver I'm sure you'll work out the implications and difference of being technically correct while wrong in, say, your eyes.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    Mortimer said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    I predict more of this if Just Stop Oil don't stop.

    A Just Stop Oil activist was seen falling to the ground after a car drove through groups of protesters.

    In footage posted to social media groups, orange-clad demonstrators can be seen holding signs in a demonstration on Holloway Road, north London.

    In the video, a grey Renault drives next to a group of eco-activists holding a large "Just Stop Oil" sign.

    In the gaggle of protesters, at least one person appears to put their hand on the car's bonnet and another appears to stand in front of the vehicle.

    A car horn can be heard blaring as a man's arm is seen flailing through the air before he appears to drop to the ground.

    Fellow protesters then huddle around the fallen activist as the car drives off.

    In the background, someone can be heard asking: "Are you okay?"

    Another person appears to suggest the vehicle "ran over" the person's foot.

    The Metropolitan Police are understood to be aware of the incident.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/02/just-stop-oil-car-drives-through-protest-holloway-road-lond/

    Irresonsible behaviour by the protestors when the car was clearly moving forward and to the side of them. They seem to try to get in its way. Sadly it looks like the driver could not avoid a collision.
    He's driving a 1.5 tonne metal boxon a road into a bunch of protestors who shouldn't have been there.....

    The police need to clear the highways...
    FIFY
    And? That's not an excuse to hit someone with your car.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    A secret Vatican peace mission to end the fighting in Ukraine appears to have been shot down by Kyiv as the country prepares for a long-awaited counteroffensive to drive out President Putin’s invading army.

    Pope Francis said on Sunday that the Vatican was involved in behind-the-scenes efforts to end the war. “There is a mission in course now but it is not yet public. When it is public, I will reveal it,” he said after a trip to Hungary that involved talks with Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, and a Russian Orthodox bishop. “Everyone is interested in the road to peace,” the Pope added.

    Last week, Denys Shmyhal, the Ukrainian prime minister, said he had discussed President Zelensky’s peace formula with the Pope during a meeting at the Vatican. Zelensky’s plan includes the withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukraine and the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes. The Kremlin has rejected both demands.

    Shmyhal also said he had asked the Pope to help repatriate about 19,500 Ukrainian children who have been deported to Russia or Kremlin-controlled areas of Ukraine.

    Francis has said he wants to visit Kyiv and Moscow on a peace mission to end the 14-month conflict, the most serious fighting in Europe since the end of the Second World War. However, an official close to the Ukrainian president’s office said Zelensky had not consented to peace efforts on Ukraine’s behalf.

    “If talks are happening, they are happening without our knowledge or our blessing,” the official, who was not identified, told CNN.

    Kyiv has said there can be no peace until it has recovered all territory seized by Russia since 2014, including Crimea. A ceasefire, Zelensky’s government argues, would simply allow Russia to regroup and bolster its forces before launching a new invasion.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/war-in-ukraine-pope-francis-pursuing-peace-mission-without-zelenskys-blessing-says-kyiv-v7ghtd5h3
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    Brexit reversal is going to be a generational thing. It will happen when Freedom of Movement and Sterling are no longer touchstone issues. Contactless payments and the demise of notes and coins will do a lot of heavy lifting for the latter; the increasing wealth of Central and Eastern European EU member states, and slower longer-term UK growth, will do a lot for the former. But it is going to take many years to work through. There is not going to be any quick return.

    In the meantime, there will clearly be a much closer relationship - especially if Labour wins the next general election, whatever Starmer and co say now.

    I submit that in that period the EU will have changed into something the average Brit no longer wishes to join for many other reasons. What everyone forgets in this debate is that the EU isn’t static and we are no longer there to stop certain ideas. For me that’s useful - it’s not ideal for rejoiners.
    I submit that anyone who wasn't keen on the EU in the first place is likely to submit that in that period the EU will have changed into something the average Brit no longer wishes to join for many other reasons.
    Not quite. The large majority of people who now think Brexit a mistake include many that voted for it. Obviously.
    Oh really dont kid yourself. Remoaners have a clear field on the PR front since leavers have moved on, If we had stayed in you would have a relentless diet of £20billion pissed up the wall each year, why did we have to give our gas to keep Germany's lights on, the sovereignty sleights of hand, immigration with no infrastructure to support it and the endless bureaucratic diktats.

    Indeed Brexiteers moved on, blaming their mess on those opposed to creating it in the first place. The obvious failure of Brexit is the reason why most people think it was a mistake, including those previously expecting a success.
    What's it like still living in 2016 ?

    Brexit is currently little more than an irritant at the edges, Since 2016 we have had two major crises which dwarf any problems Brexit has caused. Covid has been one of the biggest crises I have lived through, examining what went wrong is more important than Brexit navel gazing. Ukraine\cost of living is the second major crisis which has led to the highest inflation in 40 years. If you havent the ability to understand the relative size of these events perhaps you look them up.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303
    edited May 2023
    ...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984

    NEW THREAD

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,285
    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    "I tend to regard LAB voting intention to signify being anti-Tory and that people will vote in their elections for the party locally they perceive as being most likely to beat the Conservatives".

    I'm sure that's correct. The problem most people seem to have is knowing which party in their ward has most chance of causing hurt to the Tories. Surprisingly few seem to even know which party is currently in charge.

    Voters are generally not very clever. Most have no idea who their MP is, nor which party they represent. I wonder how many have no idea whether the Govt is Tory or Labour ?
    Think about the average person, with an IQ of 100 (or whatever, if you're not a fan of IQ ranges). The average person.

    Now just think. 50% of the population are more stupid than that person........
    Are those the ones who got outwitted by a bus ?
    More likely the ones that believed the bus.
    Can we explain why the people calling everyone else thickos couldnt get a convincing argument together or use their alleged superior intellect to convince the oiks ?
    Because they didn't think it was important - hence Brexit because they let the simple stories override reality.

    Now remaining in the EU needed some explaining (and was a hard sell given how shat upon many working class people have found things since the EU borders opened in 2007) but Cameron and Co didn't even bother because they didn't think it was important.

    Result Brexit...
    The interesting element of all this isn't to revisit the old argument but to try and apply the changes to how politics works to the present day.

    We used to debate policies, not realities. We could argue that this policy or that policy would be best for the issue, but now we seem to debate whether that issue is real or not. A post-truth alt-fact world where you don't need to actually deliver or even understand what something is as long as you can tell a lie enough times to convince people the lie is the truth.

    A hard look at reality is increasingly needed to understand some basic structural problems and then have the argument about how to fix it. Instead we just have lies and arguments about patriotism if you question the lie.
    The thing to remember is that a lot of people don't think so let the wrong version of a story lead which creates problem down the line.

    See HS2 - it's not about Speed, the WCML, ECML and Midland Mainlines are at capacity. HS2 fixes those lines by removing the fast non stop trains which will allow more stopping trains on the existing tracks (the complexity there is explaining that trains running at multiple speeds = less trains than running them all at the same speed)...
    And is going to be doing that by... when ?
This discussion has been closed.