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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2010 the Tories had a lead amongst teachers. Now LAB i
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2010 the Tories had a lead amongst teachers. Now LAB is 25 percent ahead
Given the very public row that’s been going on over Mr Michael Gove I’ve dug out some comparative data that shows how this segment of the electorate now says it will vote.
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As will their partners the lib dems. Vapid posturing against Gove by Laws fools nobody as the lib dems flatlining at 10% since late 2010 proves.
If Clegg doesn't like it he can draw a red line then tell his chum Cammie to sack Gove.
If not then save the pathetic 'differentiation' for Clegg's ostrich faction since they seem to be the only ones who actually believe such transparent and desperate spin.
That's one way of putting it. I think a better way would be that the country will have to pay a very heavy price if the progress which has been made by Michael Gove in beginning the long hard slog of rescuing our education system is put into reverse after 2015.
It is: to what effect the use of multi-member wards is biased towards the most popular party in a by-election? For instance, in a 3 person mixed urban ward with (say) 1 Labour, I SNP and 1 Green elected in that order by the transferable vote system used, it is presumably equally probable (ignoring the uneven distribution of vegetarianism and youth) that any of them will die or resign. But if there is a vote it is almost certain that Labour will get the vacant seat - and therefore an average gain of 2/3 of a seat without any other change whatever. So to compare by elections and normal local authority elections is to compare FPTP and proportional representation - which is not really commensurable. is this so? or have I missed something?
I don't know how far this is an explanation for the observed results, or if anyone has allowed for this (and it could end up reinforcing the apparent trend, of course), but it is something to bear in mind.
All Gove has ever done is copy the Blair reforms and expand on them while adding his peculiar Times columnist spin to make credulous tories and kippers believe he was some kind of right wing colossus. Take away all the overblown rhetoric and he's a bog standard Blairite.
Do we have similar polling for NHS workers?
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
I tweeted Paddy Power and they opened the market again
Gove is 16/1.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=303813
Still awaiting a response from Shadsy
The Mail reports that Blair actually supports Gove and has had meetings with him recently !!!
Maybe Blair can see what ed can't. The potential train wreck around the corner.
Wales has already told its voters that there won't be any improvements to the basket case that is education there for several years/
But that doesn;t mean there won;t be improvements in England.
If the autumn's PISAs show tory England pulling further and clearly ahead of labour Wales, then Ed has a big, big, problem that he can't even see yet.
If I was him I'd be blasting away at Labour's fiefdom now - before its too late.
In philosophy yes. But Gove walks the walk. Tony talked the talk.
Those are far more valuable and accurate than taking one or two locals and trying to foolishly read everything into them.
Sadly for Clegg they continually show that, though lib dems have been flatlining on 10% for years, the number of activists and councillors just keeps dropping hard. Year on year on year.
All gone a bit quiet now.
The only thing we hear on PB are a few words of praise from independent insiders such as Dr. Sox on how much better the commissioning process has become.
Even Pork has left the NHS for new feeding pastures.
Would be interesting to see how much of the swing against the Tories in the polls is public sector vs private sector overall. I suspect it could just be a few small groups of vested interests who have established Labour's lead.
edit: see that antifrank had made the same point before I did and, characteristically, phrased it rather better.
Individually, comparing the results from the last local elections and the by-elections held subsequently isn't entirely fair but it is true to say that the SNP are on a bad run in local by-elections. As one of the two largest parties in Scotland, they should have broad-based support and as they're not particularly transfer-unfriendly either, the large wards / PR-Single member issues shouldn't be that applicable. It should really be them and Labour who win a disproportionate number of by-elections.
Put another way, the Conservatives - also one of the two large parties in that system - are on a bad run of local election results in England but it's not because of the electoral system.
How many teachers can he realistically speak to while running a government department? I'm sure he probably does meet with them all the time, but unless he did nothing else, he's never going to get through to tens of thousands of them that way.
http://www.libdems.org.uk/candidates.aspx?show=Candidates&pgNo=5
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/f20.stm
After 13 years of Labour, despite it being one of Blair's flagship policies, there were just 203 academies in England (May 2010).
On the 1st November 2013, after three and a half years of Michael Gove, there were 3,444 - and that's despite having to drag hostile LibDems along with him.
It is one of most dramatic pieces of ministerial achievement in half a century.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_(English_school)
Poor old Seth O Logue, without stuarttruth you're just one half of a priceless comedy double act.
The Reforms shambles were a disaster for the Cameroons. We know this because they had to dump the toxic Lansley despite your amusingly out of touch spin that Lansley would become PM.
Of course they weren't that much better for Clegg either but by then Clegg was toxic anyway so nobody much cared about his wobbling incompetence on it.
You didn;t even mention free schools.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/besuch-in-berlin-merkel-zeigt-erdogan-die-kalte-schulter-12784426.html
I've NEVER in 45 years of politics met a parent who voted one way or the other explicitly because of changes to the school system. Often met already-politicised people with strong views on schools, but not the other way round. The link between "Secretary of State is changing the system" and "My child will be affected" is too tenuous for those who don't have an ideological view one way or another.
Lansley wasn't "dumped". He was promoted.
That is why Lansley is now Leader.
As predicted.
That is in direct contrast to Labour who are only interested in votes rather than any benefit to the country.
Please lets us someone from the left defend Labours education performance in Wales
****** feeling annoyed
******'s school said to be building and expanding.. Wonder why..
Like · · Share · 18 hours ago · Edited ·
2 people like this.
******* Because there are not enough classrooms...mixed years are going to be a thing of the past. Plus the immigration problem has hit hornchurch !!! X
18 hours ago · Like · 2
****** Exactly! Xx
18 hours ago · Like · 1
******* Same at The Bell in Upminster. We got a letter the other day about adding an extra class. Lots of schools in havering having to do the same. Not good. X
14 hours ago · Like · 2
*******Happening to Hacton too re new build. Looks good and must be beneficial with a lot more modern equipment. My baby would have left by then though xx
2 hours ago · Like · 1
*******LET'S MOVE!!! x
about an hour ago · Like · 1
******** Hahaha let me know where your all moving too and we'll join ya!! xx
about an hour ago · Like · 2
******the invasion of Havering has commenced...I would move if I could be bothered but I think they will catch up with us eventually ****** lol x
about an hour ago · Like · 1
******** Haha... Yeah where shall we go? Can't get into my doctors now, it's going to be a nightmare.x
57 minutes ago · Like
Hopefully where Gove leads, private enterprise will follow and soon we'll see an end to that dreadful closed shop whereby partners in accountancy firms are free to hire the best people for audit jobs irrespective of whether they have an institute-approved bit of paper. And as for airline pilots....
LOL
Er, yes. Expanded upon means just that as you just proved.
Who better to ask than Gove himself whether he aspires to any great ideological touchstones to guide him. As vapid as Cammie then. No doubt he became Education secretary because he 'thought he'd be good at it' just like Cammie's reason for being PM.
No need to feel so defensive because you fall for the inept Gove spin Richard. It's aimed at the credulous who want to believe there is somehow a fierce tory heart beating beneath Gove's dull twit exterior. It's good enough spin to get a column in the Times, but good enough spin to persuade anyone not blinded by the cringeworthy overblown rhetoric or already deep within the Cameroon camp? Not even close, as the polls keep showing.
Not just Spanish practices, but English practices, Maths practices, Geography practices etc. etc.
Labour are good at injecting poison into journalists' ink, though.
The whole Hunt counter-attack with "unqualified teachers" in the vanguard shouldn't have had any impact on the reasoning of an intelligent and knowledgeable journalist.
I am beginning to get the impression that journalists are just as lazy as qualified teachers in the state education sector.
If I went to my MP complaining about waiting times to get a GP appointment in my area, is there anything they can do about it? Is it worth doing?
He may not have everything right but I welcome a minister who is prepared to smash a cozy status quo and inject some pain and change into a system that was broken.
Time will soon enough tell if his reforms have delivered significant improvements in the life chances for kids, especially the clever poor.
What’s even more interesting (and sensible) is that differing approaches are allowed to co-exist and therefore compete. Most public services are homogeneous masses of sameness that get pulled one way and then another by successive governments and there is no real experimentation on what works best. In education we are going to get some real comparatives. That can only be good – even if the programme fails, because at least we will know.
Mrs Capitano is at work right now, teaching the little darlings. But I can tell you, off the top of my head, two things: the elevation of synthetic phonics to a universal truth (yes, it's one way of teaching literacy, but by no means the most suitable for all children), and the gutting of local authority budgets and consequent disappearance of some very good support staff. There are many more.
She will, and does, give Gove credit for certain changes. But to say "can't come up with anything at all" is trivially disprovable, even if you disagree with the reasons.
Mrs Capitano is a union member (NASUWT) purely for the liability insurance. The union magazine goes straight in the bin when it arrives. She voted LibDem in 2010 and, I think, will be voting Labour in 2015 largely because of Gove.
*still, you can't sign off an audit if you're not qualified even if you are a "good accountant"
Everyone knows Lansley was booted because of the Reforms shambles and you predicted he would be Prime Minister.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10017976/At-last-its-official-spending-more-doesnt-make-public-services-better.html
'Hucks is right below. If you want to make changes you take people with you,'
We all remember how responsive the trade unions were to New Labour's health & education reforms.
http://jobs.theguardian.com/job/4795624
I wonder how many other state schools employ a finance director for £60,000-£70,000.
New Labour's downfall with education funding was a love of initiatives. Schools weren't funded enough to do the basics, but were generously funded for whatever the project du jour was. Unfortunately the project du jour was invariably replaced by another project, and rarely were they given time to bed in. The Primary National Strategy / Primary Framework farrago is but one example.
"In addition there are retirees as well as friends and families of teachers."
Definitely not to be underestimated. Find me a partner of a teacher who doesn't consider that teaching has taken over their partner's life outside of school (as well as constraining their own significantly).
Gove's actions seem to be governed more by the interests of Mr Gove than those of the Conservative Party. What counts for him is how many brownie points he can gain off Conservative party members.
As a parent of three I greatly admire what he is doing to shake up the whole complacent system. What is certain Labour put teachers and their votes first, not parents and more importantly children.
It would have been easy for Mr Gove to have taken the easier option like some of his predecessors and taken a more comfortable job in government, rather than the inevitable backlash from those who understandably want to keep the status quo of great terms and conditions but sliding performance.
Credit to him for sticking it out and making change happen, even if more slowly than most parents would like.
Good teachers have nothing to concern them. The prospect of better pay awaits them, that so few appreciate that if you believe polls like these is worrying. Many are taken in by the blatant Union Indoctrination, which is dripfed to them, like it is to local government workers. You would hope frankly most were too bright for that.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-galloway-wants-fm-post-1-3293075
Interesting too that, given the huge conversion of schools to academies in the past 3 years - nobody has thought to poll the parents.
Have they noticed any changes now that their kids' school is an academy? is it the same/worse/better?
Yes teachers are an influential constituency. But parents are too.
It's also one of the few options Clegg's ostrich faction have left for their amusingly doomed attempts at 'differentiation' while Gove is a very large and very slow moving target.
It obviously won't work but why on earth should that bother calamity Clegg?
V interesting post Mr Macisback - perhaps you could answer the question:
Have you noticed any changes in your kids' education since 2010? did their school become an academy?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100257998/none-of-our-politicians-will-tell-you-the-truth-our-jobs-are-doomed/
What we have at the moment is a profession that will not recognise the failure of current techniques, is completly defensive and resistant to change. This resistance means that Gove is imposing his ideas and theories on the profession without the sort of constructive imput that he should be getting from those who have to implement them. Some, possibly even many, of these ideas will not work. Some will be reinventing the wheel, a wheel that has been tried and failed in the past. But the message he is trying to get over loud and clear is that too many of the children of this country are being failed, too much talent is not developing and things cannot go on like this.
I would like the teachers' leadership to be more professional in their outlook. I would want them to constructively engage and I would like Gove to listen carefully to what the teachers have to say.
There is a bit of culture shock here. The last government was willing to push ever higher exam results as evidence of success without looking at the international comparators. That kind of irresponsibility is why Labour is not fit for government, ask the benighted children of Wales.
This is too important for the future economic welfare of our country to go softly, softly with. It is urgent and if that costs a few votes on one side of the fence so be it. There will be plenty of votes to be won on the other side if things are seen to be getting better.
In 20 years my firm which only employs 50 people has got rid of more electricians for incompetence than the teachers sacked in 40 years.
(1) I'd first want to make sure you've done the obvious. I'd ask whether you've enquired about the position at other local surgeries to see if it's a general problem, and also whether you are insisting on seeing one GP (in which case I'd shake my head sympathetically and say you need to talk to that GP about it) or are willing to see anyone in the practice.
(2) If a particular surgery is proving troublesome, I'd write to them, cc to the CCG, to say that a nameless constituents reports consistent trouble - is this a temporary issue, can something be done?
(3) If the problem is general, I'd take it up with the CCG and ask what they planned to do to address the problem.
In theory, neither 2 nor 3 should work, since they aren't accountable to the MP. In practice, it usually does help.
I used to rate him but now he is just barking.
My Dad was a teacher, now a teaching assistant... thinks Goves 100% right.
The school he assists in was rated "Special measures" recently... as Morrissey might say, the teachers are afraid of the pupils
Also used to be a Labour voter, now UKIP.
'When you have an industry that employs hundreds of thousands and only sacked 18 people for incompetence in 40 years you are hardly going to take them with you.'
And even with New Labour's grade inflation,never ending exam re-sits,examiners telling teachers what the questions are going to be they still end up with the PISA results.