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The Scottish Question – politicalbetting.com
The Scottish Question – politicalbetting.com
Scotland is fast becoming to British politics what Ireland was in the 19th century: a country with endless, seemingly unresolvable, political grievances and issues defying easy answers. It has voted against independence but since 2007 has voted into power a party whose raison d’être this is. The current travails (today’s development a whistleblower about SNP finances claiming threats by the police, whose chief retired earlier than expected shortly before Sturgeon announced her resignation) are what almost inevitably happen when a party has been in power for too long with little effective opposition. This is something else which Scotland shares with Irish politics (the latter’s financial/political scandals over the years rival anything Westminster/the City has produced) and Irish society (see the various horrors resulting from the Irish Catholic church’s long stranglehold).
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My FIRST Scottish Question would be. Can I buy your unwanted, unused and effectively new coach-built motorhome for 50% of its original retail value?
3rd like the Scots Tories
Do you think Joe Biden should…
Run for president 26%
Not run for president 70%
Do you think Donald Trump should…
Run for president 35%
Not run for president 60%
https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1650123114750017536
1. There is no (yet) Scottish terrorist movement as there was with the Fenians etc.
2. There is not the same land issue as there was with the (Protestant mainly) Ascendancy owning a bulk of the land with the same religious connotations.
3. There has not been a mass famine within living memory (or one generation removed) that had wiped out a large percentage of the population via death or emigration.
All three of these played a large part in how difficult the Irish question was in the 19th Century.
Despite being very wrong about that I won't let it slow me down, and even at the time some of the arguments coming out were even to a layman legally nonsensical. For example, that because no Order had been issued before, the issuing of an Order was on its face irrational and unreasonable, which makes no sense because the ability to make an Order was built in. So it is not a surprise that the political angle is being leaned on about how it is about the wishes of the Scottish Parliament. Something to be mad about from indy backers, naturally and reasonably, but not the focal point of the case.
I did not realise it might take a year or more for the case to get to a resolution. Seems like a modified bill removing aspects that Westminster used to block it could be passed in the meantime?
As for Labour benefiting or not, didn't SLAB back the bill in the first place?
That could have some betting implications (although I am sure the Biden Taliban will be on here downplaying the issues pretty soon...)
I think that, if he believes an alternative dem candidate would do worse against Trump, he'll run simply out of duty. He can always resign later.
I say if not Biden then go big and bold - AOC. She'd be barely eligible, and can you picture Trump up against a millenial female socialist? Entertaining I bet.
It shows impatience with Biden even from a sympathetic source like Hollywood
Total gash. The dialogue makes me cringe.
But will keep watching for the shots of London.
I know this is cheap pointless sentiment but this fucking stupid war. My god
The Ukrainians will want revenge on Russia for the next 100 years. There will be terror attacks in Moscow for a generation
It has mad plot twists, weird non sequiturs, weak jokes, a quite absurd amount of senior black politicians/spies, and yet it is pleasantly diverting, nonetheless
Thanks for header. I have a question on this S35/GRR case if you're still doing a bit of BTL.
The main UKG argument - which I get - is that although GRR in itself is intra vires for the SG, the veto is valid because the bill impacts the operation of the EA, which is a UK matter.
When it comes to looking at this specific point will the judges use any concept of materiality? Eg if they find that yes it would impact the workings of the EA but only in a very minor way, would this iyo be enough to find for the UKG?
(question to @DavidL too)
It couldn't possibly make a worse mess of things than Trump has.
Some of you don’t appear to know that I am Jewish, have been confronted by antisemitism and have campaigned against it - and all racism - my whole life. However I passionately believe that the good society is built on compassion, understanding and forgiveness.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1650149005089730561?cxt=HHwWgsCzrd_xwOYtAAAA
https://today.yougov.com/ratings/politics/popularity/politicians/all
Jimmy Carter a surprising, to me at least, leader in the yougov ratings for US politicans can be ruled out at 98. Obama and Arnie ineligible which makes Bernie the only politician with a 50%+ favourable rating who could stand. And some of those favourables won't want him to stand if they think he would probably lose, or they prefer another Democrat.
Sadly Trump probably leads this with 35%.
I left my phone at home and took my wallet out this afternoon.
Britain's £3.2 billion aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales has been reduced to acting as a scrap-yard. Essential pieces of equipment are being ripped out of the stricken warship, a move that raises questions over its long-term future.
The UK's second carrier has been in dry dock since breaking down off Portsmouth in August 2022.
Now Navy top brass have begun stripping the carrier – a process known as 'cannibalisation' – which will render HMS Prince of Wales inoperable for much longer.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12003445/Stricken-3-2BN-Royal-Navy-aircraft-carrier-HMS-Prince-Wales-reduced-acting-scrap-yard.html
As to people wanting to turn it off, I don't understand it really. It's not exactly intrusive and I doubt we'll hear it again unless there's a nuclear attack so I think that's never.
Three are generally shit, though. I only joined for free roaming in the US.
I don’t like the fact that it’s basically West Wing meets Homeland meets Emily in Paris.
It’s quite silly.
"The Proclaimers have been removed from an official King's coronation playlist after they were criticised for their anti-royal views.
Craig and Charlie Reid's hit I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles) was featured alongside prominent UK artists.
Last year they agreed with a republican demonstrator who shouted during the proclamation of King Charles.
The BBC understands the song was removed by the UK government following complaints."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/23/russia-imprisoning-its-own-soldiers-in-caged-pits/
Russia reintroducing medeival punishments for desertion and drunkenness.
Imagine how difficult it would have been to impose that in the era of Yeltsin...
But just enjoy it for what it is, soap opera with a lash of politics, and it is quite fun. And instantly forgettable. It is also 7 million times better than the TV version of Lord of the Rings
But it’s basically a “Pretty Women” set at the Court of St James, ie relatable woman (albeit one with a specialism in Afghan and Pakistan) makes good.
With hilarious results!
Speaking of which, there is a threatened Writers Strike in Hollywood commencing May 1 (not definite yet but quite possible). The last time it happened in 2007 it basically killed new drama for a year and American studios had to churn out endless reality TV, which doesn’t need writers
So, basically, really quite shit for fans of TV drama. Pray they settle the dispute
She thinks the GRR bill is nonsense, and in this agrees with ordinary opinion, so she is in a win/win whatever happens in the courts.
She also believes (wrongly IMHO) in independence - of course, but believes in it intelligently. That is, that the three prongs of achieving it are proper old fashioned liberal democratic ones - the persuasive nature of your arguments, the persuasive nature of your policies and the persuasive nature of your competence.
This is good, despite my disagreements with her. Incompetent, illiberal political chancers ought to be properly fearful of liberal democratic believers in persuasion and competence. Can England borrow her by any chance?
The entirety of my school, students and staff have phones turned off all day, every day.
How do they alert us?
As to the materiality point, that is a good question. There are 2 schools of thought that I have seen: as this is a constitutional matter relating to the powers of a Parliament, there should be a high bar for the exercise of the veto. The other states that the court should not get into the merits of the decision but merely assess whether there are reasonable grounds to believe in adverse effects ie unless they are obviously frivolous the court will not look into whether it would have made the same or a different decision.
I think that if the first test is met it will be hard for the Scottish government to argue that the effects are immaterial precisely because it has said that this Bill makes and is intended to make a significant change. But I also think that the court is likely to inquire into the reasonableness of the objections precisely because this is the first such case and it will want to make a definitive judgment.
But, frankly, who knows.
What have the Romans ever done for us?
Which suggests storm surge.
Polls published in last 7 days
LAB 42,45,44,43,43,44,47 AVE 44.0
CON 28,31,32,29,28,31,27 AVE 29.47
LAB Lead 14.53
LOWEST LAB LEAD OF 2023
Hence, if we must have a cataclysm, we would prefer it to be during the school holidays.
Picard series 2 was better.
I await a hefty hit from the ban-hammer.
Number of weeks where EdM had a 14 point lead: not sure, maybe a couple in Autumn 2012?
You on the other hand seem non-plussed by having your money stolen Which is odd.
Series 1 was bitty, and I *really* dislike the moral implications of the ending remained untouched.
Series 2 was better Sci-Fi, but poorer Star Trek, which means the fans disliked it.
Series 3 was poorer Sci-Fi, but designed to give hard-ons to Star Trek fans.
I'm not a Star Trek 'fan'; I found TOS to be dated back in the 1990s; but TNS, Voyager and DS9 were all enjoyable. But none of them are a patch on Babylon 5.
But worst of all: Picard displays the worst of all Sci-Fi issues: because a character is popular with the fans, there is a big temptation not to kill them off. And if they get killed off, then just wave your sci-fi wand and bring them back. That was novel with Spock in 'The Search for Spock'; now it's just a sign of writers in the control of the fans' damp, sticky hands.
https://www.basicinstructions.net/basic-instructions/2019/2/5/how-to-overlook-flaws