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Just 3 of the April polls have LAB 20% or more ahead – politicalbetting.com
Just 3 of the April polls have LAB 20% or more ahead – politicalbetting.com
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Just 3 of the April polls have LAB 20% or more ahead – politicalbetting.com
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Broken sleazy Truss beginning to be forgotten?
Broken sleazy Tories beginning to be forgiven?
Broken sleazy Johnson failing to make a comeback?
Or some or all of the above?
The RCN are planning a national rather than local ballot this time as I understand, so hard to know the sums.
Then there is the issue of the Staff council with the other unions, notably Unison.
https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1646855386773831680
Only 2 with fieldwork entirely in April
Both by Omnisis
Incorrect code for the carpark on the app
Automated phone line thought l was an a, c was an o...
Just hopeless really
This is from Unison:
The threshold for turnout is 50%, but a simple majority of the votes need to strike, so in theory 25% +1 voting to strike is sufficient. Though a 40% threshold is required in some services too.
The Unions know the numbers as they have the results from other areas too.
Obviously though hard to get a good turnout on those numbers compared to the 98% of a 78% turnout in the Junior doctors vote.
Sunak on his own might edge minor gains, but it'll be a tiny thing in the big scheme of things.
The only thing thing that stops the odds being priced as a near certainty are Labour themselves. Corbyn hasn't gone away.
He remains alive, I grant you.
Bloody Yorkies
"In England and Scotland, the law also states that for workers whose role involves the delivery of “important public services”, trade unions must meet an additional 40% support threshold among all workers eligible to vote, as well as the 50% turnout threshold, for action to be lawful."
Surely NHS nursing must be an "important public service"?
https://www.rcn.org.uk/magazines/Action/2022/Jul/Industrial-action
"Breaknews A growing number of #SNP politicians removing any mention of the #SNP from their social media accounts appears to be a first step to resigning the whip before the party is declared bankrupt? However the membership data cannot be used for a new party. Big Trouble"
https://twitter.com/DavidDhenry/status/1646870302851203073?s=20
"Does anyone in the Twittersphere have any idea why a number of SNP MP's and MSP's have deleted reference to the SNP from their social media bios? I've asked my own MSP but she hasn't responded yet."
https://twitter.com/CameronMcNeish/status/1646914129913888770?s=20
"They aren’t. If you use web archive to look back you will see they haven’t changed. Only exception I have seen was when Nicola updated her bio and she simply deleted SNP leader.
It’s a mental conspiracy theory and I wonder why people think this is a great use of their time. "
https://twitter.com/AustinRSheridan/status/1646923375946653718?s=20
Branding adherence seems to be spotty across the board, and if there’s plot afoot by SNPers, many of them did not seem to get the same memo.
We can't afford any more of this. The government should tweak the offer, say 7% pay and 4% bonus and get acceptance. And junior doctors should be offered the same.
Because it shows how bad things are for the Nats, that lots of people will easily believe they are indeed about to go bankrupt
Even better is the fact that only Sturgeon and Murrell knew that the SNP auditors had resigned, for six entire months. Just two people in the whole of Scotland, apparently. And when asked, Sturgeon told people to "shut up talking about the finances. The finances are fine"
Delicious
Odder than the obviously odd thing about then.
USA Williams on today's indictments against the Chapitos and 25 others: “For over a decade, the illicit fentanyl trade has created a plague of addiction, death, and misery for Americans and New Yorkers of all walks of life. 1/6...
https://mobile.twitter.com/SDNYnews/status/1646901757405020160
https://wingsoverscotland.com/progress-to-nowhere/#more-136982
Ouch, And again it's the relative SMALLNESS of the alleged corruption that makes it worse. Billions corruptly wasted on PPE by the Tories is too big to comprehend, and your eyes glaze over. £110k on an unused campervan or £300,000 siphoned off a non-functioning company - people can relate to that, all too easily
The best bet for the Nats is that the entire leadership resigns and hands over to Forbes? Or this is going to go on and on and on
"Boris Eldagsen himself has come out and stated after the winning result was announced that this isn’t a photograph at all. It’s an image generated by inputs he provided to the Open AI photo tools".
https://mobile.twitter.com/javilopen/status/1646804222187393030
So there’s a kind of shock, and embarrassment, and a clinging sense of culpability.
The government had a pretty good March, which included getting (possibly reluctant) acceptance of the NHS pay offer by union leaders. That started to unravel as the details became clearer- the clever-clever structure is one of the reasons that teachers were so pissed off, along with the "it's got to come out of existing budgets" thing.
The boat-stopping is similarly looking less impressive now than earlier, and rightly so. So what exactly is a Sunak government for?
So yes, the government has deservedly improved in the polls since the start of the year, and if they can continue that (harder) things get spicier. But lest we forget, the current wikiworm average is L44 C29; this time last year it was L40 C33.
The housing market has been more resilient than I thought possible in recent months. And it appears first time buyers are responsible. Clearly the rental market is in a terrible (insert swear word of choice) state and so buying is still preferable. But how are they affording it?
https://twitter.com/resi_analyst/status/1646769169214455809
No prizes for guessing the answer (revealed in the thread): ultra-long mortgage terms.
We'll start seeing inter-generational mortgages - with terms of 50 or more years - being marketed, in London at first, in another five or ten years' time. Watch.
It is going to be a torrid few years for the Nits anyway, and recovery has to start somewhere
I guess, however, there is an argument for allowing Humza to stay in office and take the kicking at the next Westminster GE, then she can take over and start afresh. But then the counter-argument is how much MORE damage the Sturgeon loyalist idiot Yousaf will do interim?
Fun times!
So what are these marathon mortgages about?
It feels v southern, culturally, despite abutting the Mason Dixon line.
My org has a hub in Dallas, I’ve just spent a week checking in on the team there.
People Polling were always good for a truly spectacular Labour lead, mostly becasue they put the Conservatives so low.
We've not heard for a couple of weeks. That might be sensible (polling at holiday times is always a bit wobbly), but should someone do the equivalent of knocking on their door and checking they are OK?
https://twitter.com/bnhwalker/status/1646870585010429952
(1) Who wins a public popularity contest - or a blame gain over service disruption - in a contest between the Conservative Party and nurses?
(2) Unlike most private sector workers, for whom declaring open war on their employer may carry the risk of being made redundant further down the line, the nurses are completely unsackable. Everyone knows about the number of NHS staff vacancies, and the dire waiting lists. The system cannot afford to lose them.
The advantage in this situation lies almost entirely with the nurses. All the Government has left to try to dissuade them from holding a strike every week 'til Kingdom Come is moral blackmail about the harm caused to patients. But it's obvious that the nurses think that the decay of the NHS under current management is going to keep harming patients anyway.
If I were advising them, I'd tell them to settle for nothing less than the 10.1% that the Government is giving the elderly, plus an agreed timetable for further increases over the coming years to compensate for the diminution of their real-terms incomes caused by pay restraint during austerity. This is going to look reasonable to the public - it's not the 35% all in one go being demanded by the junior doctors - and the Government can afford the expense. It just doesn't want to, that's all. If ministers claim they have no more cash then they can simply be told to tax wealth more.
What we all have to appreciate about industrial relations - and this applies to both the private and the public sector - is that most employers don't want to pay people a single penny more than they really have to, and there are always justifications for pay restraint. When the environment is inflationary then the employer pleads poverty and claims that decent pay rises will simply lead to a wage-inflation spiral. When inflation is low then the employer suggests that employees don't need more money as a consequence. There are always excuses and always heel-digging.
This is why workers, when - as in the case of the nurses - they have their boot on the neck of a tight employer, should apply firm downward pressure until the employer surrenders. This Government resorts to all the standard ploys. It whinges about the wage-inflation spiral. It pleads poverty - though notice how it can always find another few billion quid down the back of the Treasury sofa to pay off its favoured social groups with pension rises and tax cuts. It's time, I would suggest, for the nurses to ignore this nonsense and keep applying boot to neck, until Jeremy Hunt feels sufficiently motivated to go rooting down the sides of the sofa again.
Classy top weighted thoroughbred caught on the line by a nag.
Topical - it's tomorrow!
Indeed they have to ballot their membership to continue strikes beyond 2nd May, and with effectively 30% of their overall membership rejecting the deal there is a very real possibility the membership will vote against further strikes at which point the union leadership will no doubt have to resign
It's 7th July 1994 on BBC4. Top of the Pops re-run.
But bear in mind that the 54/46 vote was with RCN leadership recommending acceptance of the offer. People working for the state are really annoyed. The government needs to be very careful that it doesn't end up with the sort of victory that creates more ongoing problems.
I fear it may have to go
Unrelatedly, how does one declare bankruptcy?
But I will be sad. My beloved Mini JCW 56 with the unique blue-black shaded roof. SIGH