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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s a strong chance that there could be a Tory leadership contest within the next year and a quarter

The publication of the latest CONHome survey on preferred next party leader is a timely reminder that we could be just 15 months away from a vacancy occurring.

Read the full story here

edmundintokyo

This is two questions: Will 45 MPs sign and if they do will Cameron throw in the towel or lose the resulting vote. All things considered ditching Cameron doesn't seem sensible for the party as a whole, but the risk for Cameron is that the first hurdle is very low, and having cleared it Cameron is weakened and destabilized ahead of the second one. Once a vote had been called he'd have a 50-50 chance of holding on at best.

I think the upshot is that Cameron could easily end up going even if he wasn't particularly unpopular in the party, simply because 45 MPs dislike him or get scared of UKIP (if you're in what used to be a safe seat you won't be interested in optimizing for colleagues in the marginals), and nobody can stop the ball once they've set it rolling.

DavidL

The tory backbenchers gave fairly vivid demonstrations of their myopia and stupidity last week but this seems a bridge too far even for them. This is really a bet on whether the tories will lose largest party status after the next election at which point Cameron would quit as soon as was convenient to the party.

When the election comes I am not sure that Conhome "polling" will prove much of a guide but Theresa May is almost certainly the clear favourite at the moment.

OldKingCole

Is Theresa May strong because of her own ability or because of a feeling about "look how well we did when we had a woman leader"

edmundintokyo

OldKingCole said:

Is Theresa May strong because of her own ability or because of a feeling about "look how well we did when we had a woman leader"

Potential Thatcher comparisons probably don't hurt, especially if she decides to run against her leader. But more than that she's unapologetically right-wing without being obviously bonkers, and has managed to avoid resignation-level incidents in a notoriously accident-prone job.

peter_from_putney

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone know why the bookies pulled the next out of the cabinet markets?

Edit: Or are they still there, if so, can someone post a link to them please.

Like you TSE, I can find no trace of this market on oddschecker.com which is all the more surprising as until recently it was being offered by a number of the major bookies ..... all the more surprising therefore for them ALL to have withdrawn.

Do they know something we don't perhaps?

JackW

This is a simple numbers game. Should there be a second Con/LibDem Coalition or Con maj then PM Cameron continues. If not he goes.

And talking of numbers :

Latest ARSE 2015 GE Projection Countdown :

1 day 1 hour 50 minutes

NickPalmer

As EiT has pointed out a few times, the mechanism that the Tories use is odd - a ratchet effect whereby the number of backbenchers who have called for a vote is secretly accumulated until it happens to reach 46. In theory you could get 45 MPs wanting a vote over something controversial, then the 46th is triggered by one fellow feeling grouchy six months later. Presumably Cameron knows the current "score" and perhaps the odd antics of recent weeks are because it's getting close?

dr_spyn

Odd how so many kept so quiet about how patronage worked under Blair and Brown re quangos.

Hell hath no fury as placewomen scorned.

As for Cameron, has he banned longbows yet, because he watched Robin Hood on tv.

JackW

FPT

Apologies to posters who replied to my Hillary Clinton related posts last night. I was yanked off to bed by Mrs JackW ..... where .... we made mad passionate sleep !!

Essentially my Hillary position is that if she runs she wins. She may choose not to run and not just health or direct age related reasons. I consider it possible that she may consider that as a former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State that she's done her bit.

Chris Christie has to my mind seen his goose cooked. The latest set of numbers from Quinnipiac are horrible and Bridgegate looks set to run. Voters knew Christie was a bruiser but some revelations cross the line.

The 2016 race without both Hillary and Christie would be wide open and accordingly we look forward to OGH offering a 50/1 or better tip for the presidency .... or as @NickPalmer indicated a latino, gay jew would certainly keep PB threads going for years.

RochdalePioneers

Binning Cameron before the election before the election? They must be mad.

They ARE mad you say? Oh that makes sense then.

If the Tories aren't smashing the polls then you need to understand why. Elitist, arrogant, out of touch, uncaring. So clearly they need a Hammond or Gove or Johnson to replace Cameron and instantly fix all those issues.....

So that leaves Theresa May. For me she is the Tories equivalent of Harperson - quietly shrieking with a glint of something disturbing in her eye. You think she has a better chance of coming over normal? Perhaps if she binned off Oik and Hunt from her cabinet, but aren't they exactly the kind of people the mad backbenchers like? Haven't the Tories got anyone normal hiding in the cabinet who could do a major?

Millsy

I don't think so. Wishful thinking!

We are in the run up to not only the European Parliament elections but also the general election, and Tory MPs are likely to be more and more disciplined - particularly as everyone now expects a third place finish for the Conservatives in the Euros anyway.

There has also been quite a bit of criticism of the Tory rebels, not only from right-wing commentators but also other MPs and regretful rebels. I imagine this will hit home with any that still think they are bigger than the party and country.

And I think Miliband and Clegg will go before Cameron.

Mick_Pork

DavidL said:

When the election comes I am not sure that Conhome "polling" will prove much of a guide

It won't.
IN our OUT of Europe will dominate it thanks to Farage and the kippers higher VI in 2015 than 2010.

Tory backbenchers will be voting for whether they want another pro-Europe leader like Cammie. (in which case they will have likely at least another five years of the kippers outposturing and outflanking them every single time on Europe and immigration) Or whether they go for a BOO leader to try and stop the kippers.

Fernando

Nick Palmer: "As EiT has pointed out a few times, the mechanism that the Tories use is odd - a ratchet effect whereby the number of backbenchers who have called for a vote is secretly accumulated until it happens to reach 46."

If they are secretly accumulated why not secretly bin them. Problem solved.

TheScreamingEagles

peter_from_putney said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone know why the bookies pulled the next out of the cabinet markets?

Edit: Or are they still there, if so, can someone post a link to them please.

Like you TSE, I can find no trace of this market on oddschecker.com which is all the more surprising as until recently it was being offered by a number of the major bookies ..... all the more surprising therefore for them ALL to have withdrawn.

Do they know something we don't perhaps?

It really is annoying, it has proven to be a very profitable market in the past, and I really want to back Gove as next out.

Mick_Pork

"Ultimately everything depends on whether the party believes that it would do better at the General Election with somebody else at the helm."

Just like lib dem MPs and the toxic calamity Clegg then.

SouthamObserver

Theresa May's appeal is a mystery to me. I am no fan of any of the contenders, obviously, but most of them make sense as people with identifiably Tory views and visions. May gives no impression of having any philosophical hinterland or strong beliefs; she goes with the flow. If chosen, I doubt she would outpoll the Tories in the way that Dave does. On that list only Boris has the potential to do that. May would certainly work harder than him though.

SouthamObserver

RochdalePioneers said:

Binning Cameron before the election before the election? They must be mad.

They ARE mad you say? Oh that makes sense then.

If the Tories aren't smashing the polls then you need to understand why. Elitist, arrogant, out of touch, uncaring. So clearly they need a Hammond or Gove or Johnson to replace Cameron and instantly fix all those issues.....

So that leaves Theresa May. For me she is the Tories equivalent of Harperson - quietly shrieking with a glint of something disturbing in her eye. You think she has a better chance of coming over normal? Perhaps if she binned off Oik and Hunt from her cabinet, but aren't they exactly the kind of people the mad backbenchers like? Haven't the Tories got anyone normal hiding in the cabinet who could do a major?

Hammond. But his star seems to have faded.

nigel4england

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone know why the bookies pulled the next out of the cabinet markets?

Edit: Or are they still there, if so, can someone post a link to them please.

Like you TSE, I can find no trace of this market on oddschecker.com which is all the more surprising as until recently it was being offered by a number of the major bookies ..... all the more surprising therefore for them ALL to have withdrawn.

Do they know something we don't perhaps?

It really is annoying, it has proven to be a very profitable market in the past, and I really want to back Gove as next out.

Why Gove?

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

The tory backbenchers gave fairly vivid demonstrations of their myopia and stupidity last week but this seems a bridge too far even for them. This is really a bet on whether the tories will lose largest party status after the next election at which point Cameron would quit as soon as was convenient to the party.

When the election comes I am not sure that Conhome "polling" will prove much of a guide but Theresa May is almost certainly the clear favourite at the moment.

Conhome's poll in 2005 got the final result nearly spot on for Cameron and Davis.

TheScreamingEagles

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone know why the bookies pulled the next out of the cabinet markets?

Edit: Or are they still there, if so, can someone post a link to them please.

Like you TSE, I can find no trace of this market on oddschecker.com which is all the more surprising as until recently it was being offered by a number of the major bookies ..... all the more surprising therefore for them ALL to have withdrawn.

Do they know something we don't perhaps?

It really is annoying, it has proven to be a very profitable market in the past, and I really want to back Gove as next out.

Why Gove?

Because he's not having a good time recently and is in the news for all the wrong reasons.

Blue_rog

How about Gove as leader and May as CoE. That would be fun.

nigel4england

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone know why the bookies pulled the next out of the cabinet markets?

Edit: Or are they still there, if so, can someone post a link to them please.

Like you TSE, I can find no trace of this market on oddschecker.com which is all the more surprising as until recently it was being offered by a number of the major bookies ..... all the more surprising therefore for them ALL to have withdrawn.

Do they know something we don't perhaps?

It really is annoying, it has proven to be a very profitable market in the past, and I really want to back Gove as next out.

Why Gove?

Because he's not having a good time recently and is in the news for all the wrong reasons.

Because he did not renew the contract of Sally Morgan? Sorry but that is just silly, her contract was up and they want new ideas

Gove is the best education minister we have had for 50 years, he has not gone far enough in my view as he has not reinstated grammar school education, but he has done the next best thing.

And he did well on Marr yesterday.

TOPPING

Will everyone PLEASE CALM DOWN.

Cam is going nowhere, TM would indeed make a great leader and PM, that said, in the public's eye but it ain't gonna happen. Cam is about as nuanced as it is humanly possible to be wrt EU in that he will give a referendum, but wants in, which is an entirely consistent position.

And his moronic tendency MPs? Like the pre-pubescent schoolboys they imitate, they will fall into line before too long and this whole episode(s) will become supper party anecdotes and not particularly interesting ones at that.

foxinsoxuk

I also fail to see why May.

Other than a forced resignation, there is the possibility of a voluntary one. Dave has had eight years at the top, and stepping down in the autumn could put a fresh face on a Tory party wanting to distance itself from a coalition. Fresh faces often get a polling boost, such as Callaghan in 1978, Major in 1992, or Brown may have had in 2007.

SouthamObserver said:

Theresa May's appeal is a mystery to me. I am no fan of any of the contenders, obviously, but most of them make sense as people with identifiably Tory views and visions. May gives no impression of having any philosophical hinterland or strong beliefs; she goes with the flow. If chosen, I doubt she would outpoll the Tories in the way that Dave does. On that list only Boris has the potential to do that. May would certainly work harder than him though.

TheScreamingEagles

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone know why the bookies pulled the next out of the cabinet markets?

Edit: Or are they still there, if so, can someone post a link to them please.

Like you TSE, I can find no trace of this market on oddschecker.com which is all the more surprising as until recently it was being offered by a number of the major bookies ..... all the more surprising therefore for them ALL to have withdrawn.

Do they know something we don't perhaps?

It really is annoying, it has proven to be a very profitable market in the past, and I really want to back Gove as next out.

Why Gove?

Because he's not having a good time recently and is in the news for all the wrong reasons.

Because he did not renew the contract of Sally Morgan? Sorry but that is just silly, her contract was up and they want new ideas

Gove is the best education minister we have had for 50 years, he has not gone far enough in my view as he has not reinstated grammar school education, but he has done the next best thing.

And he did well on Marr yesterday.

Partly, the story has brought Number 10 into the fold

Downing Street dragged into row over Michael Gove's sacking of Ofsted chief

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/02/downing-street-row-removal-sally-morgan-ofsted-chair

Add in his silly comments about World War One and he's not had the best few weeks.

Mick_Pork

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Binning Cameron before the election before the election? They must be mad.

They ARE mad you say? Oh that makes sense then.

If the Tories aren't smashing the polls then you need to understand why. Elitist, arrogant, out of touch, uncaring. So clearly they need a Hammond or Gove or Johnson to replace Cameron and instantly fix all those issues.....

So that leaves Theresa May. For me she is the Tories equivalent of Harperson - quietly shrieking with a glint of something disturbing in her eye. You think she has a better chance of coming over normal? Perhaps if she binned off Oik and Hunt from her cabinet, but aren't they exactly the kind of people the mad backbenchers like? Haven't the Tories got anyone normal hiding in the cabinet who could do a major?

Hammond. But his star seems to have faded.

For the moment. However, anyone who thinks it won't be dominated by ideology after Cammie is living on a different planet. The tory backbenches have quite obviously had more than enough of a PR leader by now. Hence their continual humiliation of Cammie in the commons. Come a leadership election they're all going to be posturing to a tory activist base and set of MPs irreconcilably divided on Europe and somewhat unlikely to want to brush it under the carpet after years of being forced on the backfoot by the kippers every single time.

Michael Gove and Philip Hammond would vote for Britain to leave the EU

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22500121

TheScreamingEagles

If there is a leadership election before the General Election there's a possibility that the leader will be elected unopposed and that Tory members won't have an input

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/04/will-the-next-tory-leader-be-elected-unopposed/

edmundintokyo

NickPalmer said:

As EiT has pointed out a few times, the mechanism that the Tories use is odd - a ratchet effect whereby the number of backbenchers who have called for a vote is secretly accumulated until it happens to reach 46. In theory you could get 45 MPs wanting a vote over something controversial, then the 46th is triggered by one fellow feeling grouchy six months later. Presumably Cameron knows the current "score" and perhaps the odd antics of recent weeks are because it's getting close?

One thing we haven't discussed much is what happens if a disgruntled back-bencher sends in a letter and suddenly and unexpectedly sets off the bomb.

On the one hand 15% of the party expressing a lack of confidence seems like a blow to his authority in itself, and it would be a good opportunity for somebody ambitious to make it known that they'd be available to take his place.

But on the other you get a leadership election triggered without anything like a plot in place, so maybe the whole thing just fizzles. It's not even clear the no-confidence vote would end up getting the support of all the 45 people who had signed the letters.

If Cameron knew the threshold was getting close, it might even be worth his while to prod somebody to send in the letter that put him over the edge at the time of his choosing and deal with the bomb in a controlled detonation.

TheScreamingEagles

The other thing to be considered is that Dave can win a confidence vote and still be forced out.

Thatcher won in 1990 but was still was forced out.

I'm not sure what number of MPs voting against Dave will end his tenure.

Mick_Pork

edmundintokyo said:

NickPalmer said:

As EiT has pointed out a few times, the mechanism that the Tories use is odd - a ratchet effect whereby the number of backbenchers who have called for a vote is secretly accumulated until it happens to reach 46. In theory you could get 45 MPs wanting a vote over something controversial, then the 46th is triggered by one fellow feeling grouchy six months later. Presumably Cameron knows the current "score" and perhaps the odd antics of recent weeks are because it's getting close?

One thing we haven't discussed much is what happens if a disgruntled back-bencher sends in a letter and suddenly and unexpectedly sets off the bomb.

On the one hand 15% of the party expressing a lack of confidence seems like a blow to his authority in itself, and it would be a good opportunity for somebody ambitious to make it known that they'd be available to take his place.

But on the other you get a leadership election triggered without anything like a plot in place, so maybe the whole thing just fizzles. It's not even clear the no-confidence vote would end up getting the support of all the 45 people who had signed the letters.

If Cameron knew the threshold was getting close, it might even be worth his while to prod somebody to send in the letter that put him over the edge at the time of his choosing and deal with the bomb in a controlled detonation.

Put up or shut up?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZifWqG2413U

He tried to steer a middle course on Europe, but only angered both the pro-Europeans and the Eurosceptics in the Conservative Party. His failure to ratify the Maastrict Treaty in Britain cost him. He tried to re-focus the Conservative Party on "basics"--rule of law, police, family values, education--but this backfired as the media was encouraged to start digging for scandal, and they found it. His authority was so badly diminished that in 1995, he brought matters to a head by calling a leadership ballot for July and vowing to step down if he did not receive the required majority. His line to his opponents was "Put up or shut up." He won the ballot, but it resolved nothing and he spent his last two years in office marking time. The Conservative Party lost its majority in Parliament in December 1996, but John Major managed to stay in office for a few more months. Finally, his term ran out and he called a General Election for May 1997. It was a long campaign, in which he hoped to stave off defeat and give the Labour Party, now led by Tony Blair, enough time to trip up and lose the election. But on 1 May 1997, the Conservative Party suffered its worst-ever defeat. Labour won by a landslide, with a 179 seat majority in Parliament. John Major held his seat, but a number of cabinet ministers went down to defeat.

http://tinyurl.com/kbcyw9n

edmundintokyo

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing to be considered is that Dave can win a confidence vote and still be forced out.

Thatcher won in 1990 but was still was forced out.

I'm not sure what number of MP's voting against Dave will end his tenure.

They were different rules though. Presumably she'd have stayed if she'd got the few more votes she needed to hold off a second ballot. The way it works now Cameron either wins the confidence vote or loses. If he wins, no more ballots, and if he loses, no more Cameron.

TheScreamingEagles

edmundintokyo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing to be considered is that Dave can win a confidence vote and still be forced out.

Thatcher won in 1990 but was still was forced out.

I'm not sure what number of MP's voting against Dave will end his tenure.

They were different rules though. Presumably she'd have stayed if she'd got the few more votes she needed to hold off a second ballot. The way it works now Cameron either wins the confidence vote or loses. If he wins, no more ballots, and if he loses, no more Cameron.

Yes but I Think if Dave gets 160 votes and 140 MPs vote that they have no confidence in him, Dave has won but it's the sort of result that damages him and can make him consider his position.

david_herdson

My own view is that the party would be foolish to change the leader at this stage. All the polling points to Cameron being an asset to his party in terms of electability.

Indeed. Any new leader would be stuck with the same parliamentary arithmatic as well, which is a significant inhibitor both to those seeking a change and those who might replace Cameron: what could a new leader do that's different, other than in terms of presentation?

Both Mike's bets look reasonable value, though in the case of the Clegg / Cameron departure date, it could be down to a matter of days, but I'm not sure I'd agree with the assertion that "there's a strong chance that there could be a Tory leadership contest within the next year and a quarter". Maybe about 1 in 8.

edmundintokyo

TheScreamingEagles said:

edmundintokyo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing to be considered is that Dave can win a confidence vote and still be forced out.

Thatcher won in 1990 but was still was forced out.

I'm not sure what number of MP's voting against Dave will end his tenure.

They were different rules though. Presumably she'd have stayed if she'd got the few more votes she needed to hold off a second ballot. The way it works now Cameron either wins the confidence vote or loses. If he wins, no more ballots, and if he loses, no more Cameron.

Yes but I Think if Dave gets 160 votes and 140 MPs vote that they have no confidence in him, Dave has won but it's the sort of result that damages him and can make him consider his position.

I see your point, I wonder where the line is. Still, politicians are generally notoriously hard to shift from the top job. If he'd just seen off the only credible procedural threat maybe he'd decide sod the bastards, I'm staying...

Mick_Pork

"Coming third in the May Euros might just be the trigger that causes a confidence vote in the Parliamentary Party. That happens when 46 CON MPs write private letters to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee demanding such a vote as happened in October 2003 in the move that ousted Iain Duncan Smith. "

Far more likely that will be used as the implicit threat to get Cammie to cave in as the panic truly gets out of hand when the hard-line Eurosceptics start demanding more concessions, detail on renegotiation and red lines.

edmundintokyo

david_herdson said:

Indeed. Any new leader would be stuck with the same parliamentary arithmatic as well, which is a significant inhibitor both to those seeking a change and those who might replace Cameron: what could a new leader do that's different, other than in terms of presentation?

If it's June, 2014 by the time this happens maybe they just break up with the LibDems and demand new elections. Presumably the new PM gets a bounce which would be helpful for the election, and if the LibDems refused the election then a year of election-resisting Lib-Labbery probably wouldn't do the Tory prospects for 2015 any harm.

Blue_rog

From the Tele financial blog

"More turbulence at Ryanair which has announced a €35m loss - its first third quarter loss since 2010. The carrier has blamed a 9pc drop in passenger fares - but these are dictated by demand which is the key problem"

It couldn't happen to a nicer company!

richardDodd

This is a desperate last gasp wish list from the PB lefties..They suddenly realise their leader is a total dead duck so they want the opposition to change theirs, hilarious

TheScreamingEagles

edmundintokyo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

edmundintokyo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing to be considered is that Dave can win a confidence vote and still be forced out.

Thatcher won in 1990 but was still was forced out.

I'm not sure what number of MP's voting against Dave will end his tenure.

They were different rules though. Presumably she'd have stayed if she'd got the few more votes she needed to hold off a second ballot. The way it works now Cameron either wins the confidence vote or loses. If he wins, no more ballots, and if he loses, no more Cameron.

Yes but I Think if Dave gets 160 votes and 140 MPs vote that they have no confidence in him, Dave has won but it's the sort of result that damages him and can make him consider his position.

I see your point, I wonder where the line is. Still, politicians are generally notoriously hard to shift from the top job. If he'd just seen off the only credible procedural threat maybe he'd decide sod the bastards, I'm staying...

The media will determine the line. Anymore than 110 and it means that a majority of Tory backbenchers voted against Dave ( that's assuming every minister votes for Dave)

CD13

Amused by the small fuss over Ms Morgan. Have they got amnesia about 1997 - 2010? All governments appoint their own people in general, and they always have. I suppose selective memory is the hallmark of politically motivated people.

[Deleted User]

Has anyone noticed the latest LibDem get out of jail free plan? David Laws apparently agrees that public sector education needs fixing and that the Gove agenda on free schools/discipline/excellence is the right one. However, teachers are heavily in the lefty camp and mostly not at all happy with the Gove programme as it will curb their producer power. OGH keeps reminding us that there are 900 teachers per seat and that a big chunk of the LD -> Lab switchers may be teachers.

So…Clegg in his infinite wisdom orders Laws to start attacking Gove personally on the whole education programme. The evil man is trying to restore quality and is daring to oppose the mighty Blob in his quest for excellence.

Clearly Clegg thinks that unhappy lefty teacher votes are more important than parent votes or educational outcomes.

Scott_P

CD13 said:

Amused by the small fuss over Ms Morgan. Have they got amnesia about 1997 - 2010? All governments appoint their own people in general, and they always have. I suppose selective memory is the hallmark of politically motivated people.

@DanHannanMEP: That Tory 'nepotism' in full, @trevdick. http://t.co/E7N7zYioJi

david_herdson

NickPalmer said:

As EiT has pointed out a few times, the mechanism that the Tories use is odd - a ratchet effect whereby the number of backbenchers who have called for a vote is secretly accumulated until it happens to reach 46. In theory you could get 45 MPs wanting a vote over something controversial, then the 46th is triggered by one fellow feeling grouchy six months later. Presumably Cameron knows the current "score" and perhaps the odd antics of recent weeks are because it's getting close?

The bar is low(ish) specifically to enable the Party to junk under-performing leaders, though it should be noted that in about 15 years of existance, it's only been used once, and IDS' removal can hardly be thought premature or harsh.

MPs who have written calling for a vote can also later withdraw their letter, or write with a lapse date - both of which have been done in the past - so the chances of one MP setting off the mechanism by accident is unlikely: if there were a large number of legacy 'live' letters but the issue that prompted them had died down, I'd expect the Chairman of the 1922 to have a quiet word with those MPs who'd sent them in to see whether they wanted to withdraw them.

On the question of whether the PM knows the score, I wouldn't assume anything. It will depend entirely on the attitude of the Chairman of the '22. Certainly, MPs will expect him to keep details of the letters secret and that may extend to the number of them too. On the other hand, one of the Chairman's jobs is to keep the leader appraised of disquiet on the backbenches and having received letters is evidence of that.

Mick_Pork

Patrick said:

Has anyone noticed the latest LibDem get out of jail free plan?

You mean Clegg's ostrich faction of spinners latest attempts at 'differentiation' before a set of elections? Just like all the other times they've tried it and failed.

Vapid posturing on Ofsted won't make any difference. The lib dems have been flatlining on 10% since late 2010 so I somehow doubt Laws sounding off will miraculously change that.

Slackbladder

CD13 said:

Amused by the small fuss over Ms Morgan. Have they got amnesia about 1997 - 2010? All governments appoint their own people in general, and they always have. I suppose selective memory is the hallmark of politically motivated people.

It is rather bizzare, but just goes to show how brazen and without shame (or at least hugely blinkered) many on the left are..

[Deleted User]

Scott_P said:

CD13 said:

Amused by the small fuss over Ms Morgan. Have they got amnesia about 1997 - 2010? All governments appoint their own people in general, and they always have. I suppose selective memory is the hallmark of politically motivated people.

@DanHannanMEP: That Tory 'nepotism' in full, @trevdick. http://t.co/E7N7zYioJi

I believe this is the chart of political qunago placements:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/02/sally-morgan-is-wrong-quangos-are-not-stuffed-with-tories/

AveryLP

Aren't we all being a little gullible about Cammie?

I agree with Pork that all talk of a leadership challenge is just vapid posturing.

SouthamObserver

Patrick said:

Has anyone noticed the latest LibDem get out of jail free plan? David Laws apparently agrees that public sector education needs fixing and that the Gove agenda on free schools/discipline/excellence is the right one. However, teachers are heavily in the lefty camp and mostly not at all happy with the Gove programme as it will curb their producer power. OGH keeps reminding us that there are 900 teachers per seat and that a big chunk of the LD -> Lab switchers may be teachers.

So…Clegg in his infinite wisdom orders Laws to start attacking Gove personally on the whole education programme. The evil man is trying to restore quality and is daring to oppose the mighty Blob in his quest for excellence.

Clearly Clegg thinks that unhappy lefty teacher votes are more important than parent votes or educational outcomes.

If educational outcomes were the issue here across the country they would be replicating what they have been doing in London over the last 10 years to make its state schools achieve so much more than those elsewhere.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/dec/11/educational-lottery-best-performing-schools-england-ofsted

Mick_Pork

AveryLP said:

Aren't we all being a little gullible about Cammie?

I agree with Pork that all talk of a leadership challenge is just vapid posturing.

Having trouble understanding things again, Seth O Logue?

I said it would be used as a threat to get the weak Cammie to cave in. Just like he did here.

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics Jan 30

David Cameron left bruised and humiliated after being forced to raise the white flag to Tory immigration rebels: http://bit.ly/1loqGaO

If he doesn't cave in again though then it will all get amusingly out of hand. The tory rebels have proved time and time again they don't give a flying f*** about how divided it makes the tories look or how much it upsets the Cameroons if they decide they've had enough meaningless posturing from the fop.

Ian Jones ‏@msnnews_ian Jan 31

Cameron's week just keeps getting worse. The EU referendum bill is dead: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25977258 …

david_herdson

edmundintokyo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

edmundintokyo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing to be considered is that Dave can win a confidence vote and still be forced out.

Thatcher won in 1990 but was still was forced out.

I'm not sure what number of MP's voting against Dave will end his tenure.

They were different rules though. Presumably she'd have stayed if she'd got the few more votes she needed to hold off a second ballot. The way it works now Cameron either wins the confidence vote or loses. If he wins, no more ballots, and if he loses, no more Cameron.

Yes but I Think if Dave gets 160 votes and 140 MPs vote that they have no confidence in him, Dave has won but it's the sort of result that damages him and can make him consider his position.

I see your point, I wonder where the line is. Still, politicians are generally notoriously hard to shift from the top job. If he'd just seen off the only credible procedural threat maybe he'd decide sod the bastards, I'm staying...

John Major in 1995 set his own bar for staying when he forced a leadership election vote. IIRC, he said in his autobiography that he cleared it by three, which implies he wanted at least 215 MPs, or the support of about two-thirds of the parliamentary party. I'd agree with that assessment as regards the minimum needed in a confidence vote (which that 1995 vote was a proxy for, given the provisions for a second round in which other candidates could participate). Were a leader to scrape a confidence vote 55-45, their authority would be shot and they'd be expected to jump even though they hadn't quite been pushed.

AveryLP

Mick_Pork said:

AveryLP said:

Aren't we all being a little gullible about Cammie?

I agree with Pork that all talk of a leadership challenge is just vapid posturing.

Having trouble understanding things again, Seth O Logue?

I said it would be used as a threat to get the weak Cammie to cave in. Just like he did here.

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics Jan 30

David Cameron left bruised and humiliated after being forced to raise the white flag to Tory immigration rebels: http://bit.ly/1loqGaO

If he doesn't cave in again though then it will all get amusingly out of hand. The tory rebels have proved time and time again they don't give a flying f*** about how divided it makes the tories look or how much it upsets the Cameroons if they decide they've had enough meaningless posturing from the fop.

Ian Jones ‏@msnnews_ian Jan 31

Cameron's week just keeps getting worse. The EU referendum bill is dead: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25977258 …

Pork

You must not mistake the languid indolence of the English aristocrat for lack of backbone.

An Old Etonian would never raise a white flag to anyone.

The Sun probably saw Cameron removing his handkerchief from the breast pocket of his suit jacket and leapt to entirely the wrong conclusions.

Dave was not surrendering, merely preparing to blow his nose.

Innocent_Abroad

AveryLP said:

Aren't we all being a little gullible about Cammie?

I agree with Pork that all talk of a leadership challenge is just vapid posturing.

It's something to talk about when there isn't anything else. The only pre-election circumstance I can see is if a Cabinet Minister resigns because s/he no longer agrees with the coalition. I think the polls would have to be very different for that to happen, though.

On education, is it not a fact that grammar schools produced better results when they were allowed to use the cane? (At mine, we wondered for years what a caning offence might look like. Then the captain of the First XV got Matron up the duff and we found out...)

Slackbladder

Innocent_Abroad said:

AveryLP said:

Aren't we all being a little gullible about Cammie?

I agree with Pork that all talk of a leadership challenge is just vapid posturing.

It's something to talk about when there isn't anything else. The only pre-election circumstance I can see is if a Cabinet Minister resigns because s/he no longer agrees with the coalition. I think the polls would have to be very different for that to happen, though.

On education, is it not a fact that grammar schools produced better results when they were allowed to use the cane? (At mine, we wondered for years what a caning offence might look like. Then the captain of the First XV got Matron up the duff and we found out...)

Your school must have had quite different Matrons from the ones I remember....

Innocent_Abroad

Slackbladder said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

AveryLP said:

Aren't we all being a little gullible about Cammie?

I agree with Pork that all talk of a leadership challenge is just vapid posturing.

It's something to talk about when there isn't anything else. The only pre-election circumstance I can see is if a Cabinet Minister resigns because s/he no longer agrees with the coalition. I think the polls would have to be very different for that to happen, though.

On education, is it not a fact that grammar schools produced better results when they were allowed to use the cane? (At mine, we wondered for years what a caning offence might look like. Then the captain of the First XV got Matron up the duff and we found out...)

Your school must have had quite different Matrons from the ones I remember....

She was no older than he was.

Mick_Pork

AveryLP said:

Mick_Pork said:

AveryLP said:

Aren't we all being a little gullible about Cammie?

I agree with Pork that all talk of a leadership challenge is just vapid posturing.

Having trouble understanding things again, Seth O Logue?

I said it would be used as a threat to get the weak Cammie to cave in. Just like he did here.

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics Jan 30

David Cameron left bruised and humiliated after being forced to raise the white flag to Tory immigration rebels: http://bit.ly/1loqGaO

If he doesn't cave in again though then it will all get amusingly out of hand. The tory rebels have proved time and time again they don't give a flying f*** about how divided it makes the tories look or how much it upsets the Cameroons if they decide they've had enough meaningless posturing from the fop.

Ian Jones ‏@msnnews_ian Jan 31

Cameron's week just keeps getting worse. The EU referendum bill is dead: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25977258 …

Pork

You must not mistake the languid indolence of the English aristocrat for lack of backbone.

And Old Etonian would never raise a white flag to anyone.

The Sun probably saw Cameron removing his handkerchief from the breast pocket of his suit jacket and leapt to entirely the wrong conclusions. He was not surrendering, merely preparing to blow his nose.



Hardly a surprise you're retreating to your usual position of someone whose opinion should never be taken seriously on politics. If your aim is to please kippers and tory rebels by presenting a comically out of touch stereotype of the Cameroons then mission accomplished.

Slackbladder

Innocent_Abroad said:

Slackbladder said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

AveryLP said:

Aren't we all being a little gullible about Cammie?

I agree with Pork that all talk of a leadership challenge is just vapid posturing.

It's something to talk about when there isn't anything else. The only pre-election circumstance I can see is if a Cabinet Minister resigns because s/he no longer agrees with the coalition. I think the polls would have to be very different for that to happen, though.

On education, is it not a fact that grammar schools produced better results when they were allowed to use the cane? (At mine, we wondered for years what a caning offence might look like. Then the captain of the First XV got Matron up the duff and we found out...)

Your school must have had quite different Matrons from the ones I remember....

She was no older than he was.

Are well there you go... Matron's should always look like Les Dawson, then you wouldn't have had that problem.

CarlottaVance

richardDodd said:

This is a desperate last gasp wish list from the PB lefties..They suddenly realise their leader is a total dead duck so they want the opposition to change theirs, hilarious

Next thing, the Nats will be so worried about not winning they'll demand Salmond debates with a posh Englishman who hasn't got a vote!

Again......

TGOHF

This LD vs Lab spat regarding who can be meanest about that nice Mr Gove and who is most in favour of running education for the benefit of the teachers is most amusing - shan't interfere in a family tiff - carry on...

AveryLP

Innocent_Abroad said:

AveryLP said:

Aren't we all being a little gullible about Cammie?

I agree with Pork that all talk of a leadership challenge is just vapid posturing.

It's something to talk about when there isn't anything else. The only pre-election circumstance I can see is if a Cabinet Minister resigns because s/he no longer agrees with the coalition. I think the polls would have to be very different for that to happen, though.

On education, is it not a fact that grammar schools produced better results when they were allowed to use the cane? (At mine, we wondered for years what a caning offence might look like. Then the captain of the First XV got Matron up the duff and we found out...)

Oh, I don't blame OGH for reheating old chestnuts.

But a better story may have been Exaro'news's take on the Clegg-Balls love-in. I've linked it before but well worth a second read.

See here: http://bit.ly/1lsbhGt

As for caning, I fear for this new found obsession on PB. It will do nothing to relieve Sir Roderick's mounting blood pressure and, according to Neil, will just set off a excited stream of 'shoe' posts from out most distinguished tipster.

Mick_Pork

Good news from Carlotta's economic guru.

Joseph Rowntree Fdn. ‏@jrf_uk

Austerity Labour is on its way and Ed Balls is leading the charge http://fw.to/CPvxeld via @Telegraph

CarlottaVance

Ukip supporters really dislike posh Dave… but they can't stand Ed Miliband either
In different ways, both David Cameron, the Etonian Oxford graduate from the stockbroker belt, and Ed Miliband, the Oxford-educated policy wonk from the North London intelligentsia, alienate the struggling blue-collar voters who are defecting en masse to Ukip.
Both leaders have led lives a million miles away from the life of the average Ukip voter. This makes it hard for them to credibly claim to understand or represent the struggles of these voters who feel insecure, left behind and angry....

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100257745/ukip-supporters-really-dislike-posh-dave-but-they-cant-stand-ed-miliband-either/

Mick_Pork

CarlottaVance said:

richardDodd said:

This is a desperate last gasp wish list from the PB lefties..They suddenly realise their leader is a total dead duck so they want the opposition to change theirs, hilarious

Next thing, the Nats will be so worried about not winning they'll demand Salmond debates with a posh Englishman who hasn't got a vote!

Again......

Poor old scottish tory surgers. Always doomed to be out of touch with scottish public opinion.

Again...

Euan Anderson ‏@FreeThinker2040 56m

67% of Scots in latest ICM poll want Cameron v Salmond debate #democracy #indyref http://news.stv.tv/politics/262524-new-poll-suggests-support-for-independence-growing-among-scots/ …

Richard_Nabavi

I'm confused.

There seems to be some fuss about a Labour peer not having her contract renewed by the chap who appointed her.

So, let me get this straight, in order to avoid politicisation of Ofsted, this lady must have her contract renewed purely because she's a Labour peer. i.e. a prominent member of a political party which is ideologically opposed to reform of education. Have I understood this correctly?

AndreaParma_82

Ann Clywd's retirement confirmed by Western Mail

mobile.twitter.com/Steve_Cush/status/430077287632232448/photo/1

Born in 1937, she won the Cynon Valley by-election in 1984. She leaves a 32.2% majority over Plaid.

Mick_Pork

AveryLP said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

AveryLP said:

Aren't we all being a little gullible about Cammie?

I agree with Pork that all talk of a leadership challenge is just vapid posturing.

It's something to talk about when there isn't anything else. The only pre-election circumstance I can see is if a Cabinet Minister resigns because s/he no longer agrees with the coalition. I think the polls would have to be very different for that to happen, though.

On education, is it not a fact that grammar schools produced better results when they were allowed to use the cane? (At mine, we wondered for years what a caning offence might look like. Then the captain of the First XV got Matron up the duff and we found out...)

But a better story may have been Exaro'news's take on the Clegg-Balls love-in. I've linked it before but well worth a second read.

LOL

I think we can take that as seriously as your conspiracy theory and prediction that boundary changes would be saved by a deal between Cammie and the SNP.

rcs1000

Economics comment for 3 February:

Manufacturing PMI numbers for Europe are out, and they're pretty much universally good.
UK 56.7
Germany 56.5
Switzerland 56.1
Italy 53.1
Ireland 52.8
Spain 52.3
Greece 51.2
...
China 50.5
...
France 49.3

The UK numbers are fabulous, but everywhere is improving. Even France - the only European country showing a contraction - showed an improvement on December's figures. Greece is above 50 for the first time in about 5 years. Spain is at a four year high.

Is economic recovery going to be in time for Dave? (Or his continental peers?)

Richard_Nabavi

Mick_Pork said:

67% of Scots in latest ICM poll want Cameron v Salmond debate #democracy #indyref http://news.stv.tv/politics/262524-new-poll-suggests-support-for-independence-growing-among-scots/ …

Interesting, I hadn't realised Cameron was so popular in Scotland.

TOPPING

rcs1000 said:

Economics comment for 3 February:

Manufacturing PMI numbers for Europe are out, and they're pretty much universally good.
UK 56.7
Germany 56.5
Switzerland 56.1
Italy 53.1
Ireland 52.8
Spain 52.3
Greece 51.2
...
China 50.5
...
France 49.3

The UK numbers are fabulous, but everywhere is improving.

Is economic recovery going to be in time for Dave? (Or his continental peers?)

Not vs consensus.

££ weakening.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Not watched much news lately, but the 'story' is just bonkers, and the fact it's been at or near the top of the BBC's website is deranged.

"The Tories only want Tories in top jobs! They're politicising bodies like Oftsed!" claims outgoing Labour peer.

"Who appointed you?" no journalist bothers to ask.

"That evil Conservative, Gove!"

It's not remotely a story. It's practically a second yacht, aboard which no money was sought, and no money was given.

Mick_Pork

AndreaParma_82 said:

Ann Clywd's retirement confirmed by Western Mail

mobile.twitter.com/Steve_Cush/status/430077287632232448/photo/1

Born in 1937, she won the Cynon Valley by-election in 1984. She leaves a 32.2% majority over Plaid.

Lib dems got 13.8% in 2010. Can't see them getting that in 2015 somehow.
Tories 10.1% and the kippers 3.4%. Will be an interesting one to watch.

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone know why the bookies pulled the next out of the cabinet markets?

Edit: Or are they still there, if so, can someone post a link to them please.

Like you TSE, I can find no trace of this market on oddschecker.com which is all the more surprising as until recently it was being offered by a number of the major bookies ..... all the more surprising therefore for them ALL to have withdrawn.

Do they know something we don't perhaps?

It really is annoying, it has proven to be a very profitable market in the past, and I really want to back Gove as next out.

Why Gove?

Because he's not having a good time recently and is in the news for all the wrong reasons.

Wouldnt't that mean the odds are relatively unattractive?

FWIW, given that Education and Welfare are the two big reforms this government is executing, I would suggest that Gove or IDS being kicked out is only marginally less likely than Osborne

TheScreamingEagles

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone know why the bookies pulled the next out of the cabinet markets?

Edit: Or are they still there, if so, can someone post a link to them please.

Like you TSE, I can find no trace of this market on oddschecker.com which is all the more surprising as until recently it was being offered by a number of the major bookies ..... all the more surprising therefore for them ALL to have withdrawn.

Do they know something we don't perhaps?

It really is annoying, it has proven to be a very profitable market in the past, and I really want to back Gove as next out.

Why Gove?

Because he's not having a good time recently and is in the news for all the wrong reasons.

Wouldnt't that mean the odds are relatively unattractive?

FWIW, given that Education and Welfare are the two big reforms this government is executing, I would suggest that Gove or IDS being kicked out is only marginally less likely than Osborne

When the markets are up Gove is usually in the 25/1 to 33/1 range which represents tremendous value.

Lennon

Technical point - if they get to 44 votes but not 45 - and then Cameron loses 4 MP's so he is at 299 instead of the current 303 - that makes the 15% requirement 44 not 45 - is a no confidence vote then triggered?

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

edmundintokyo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

edmundintokyo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing to be considered is that Dave can win a confidence vote and still be forced out.

Thatcher won in 1990 but was still was forced out.

I'm not sure what number of MP's voting against Dave will end his tenure.

They were different rules though. Presumably she'd have stayed if she'd got the few more votes she needed to hold off a second ballot. The way it works now Cameron either wins the confidence vote or loses. If he wins, no more ballots, and if he loses, no more Cameron.

Yes but I Think if Dave gets 160 votes and 140 MPs vote that they have no confidence in him, Dave has won but it's the sort of result that damages him and can make him consider his position.

I see your point, I wonder where the line is. Still, politicians are generally notoriously hard to shift from the top job. If he'd just seen off the only credible procedural threat maybe he'd decide sod the bastards, I'm staying...

The media will determine the line. Anymore than 110 and it means that a majority of Tory backbenchers voted against Dave ( that's assuming every minister votes for Dave)

That's a big assumption... in the privacy of a secret ballot there will be all sorts of calculations going on...

AveryLP

More good news to deter idle thoughts

Markit's UK Manufacturing PMI comes in a 56.7, a touch down on December's 57.2, but still well above series average of 51.3.

Factory outputs up, strong inflow of orders, improved domestic demand and rising export orders all reported. Near record rates of new employment, across all enterprise sizes and sectors. Input and output prices rising but at a declining rate.

Who needs a new leader when we have an economy performing like this?

Link to Markit Press Release: http://bit.ly/1k2Dpyg

Mick_Pork

Richard_Nabavi said:

Mick_Pork said:

67% of Scots in latest ICM poll want Cameron v Salmond debate #democracy #indyref http://news.stv.tv/politics/262524-new-poll-suggests-support-for-independence-growing-among-scots/ …

Interesting, I hadn't realised Cameron was so popular in Scotland.

If that was the case then Cammie will be very keen to debate with "every-fibre of his being".
Won't he?

*chortle*

rcs1000

AveryLP said:

More good news to deter idle thoughts

Markit's UK Manufacturing PMI comes in a 56.7, a touch down on December's 57.2, but still well above series average of 51.3.

Factory outputs up, strong inflow of orders, improved domestic demand and rising export orders all reported. Near record rates of new employment, across all enterprise sizes and sectors. Input and output prices rising but at a declining rate.

Who needs a new leader when we have an economy performing like this?

Link to Markit Press Release: http://bit.ly/1k2Dpyg

hah! beat you to it this morning :-)

rcs1000

TOPPING said:

Not vs consensus.

££ weakening.

UK consensus was 57.3, so if it was a miss it was marginal.

There are other reasons why the pound is weak today.

OldKingCole

Mick_Pork said:

Patrick said:

Has anyone noticed the latest LibDem get out of jail free plan?

You mean Clegg's ostrich faction of spinners latest attempts at 'differentiation' before a set of elections? Just like all the other times they've tried it and failed.

Vapid posturing on Ofsted won't make any difference. The lib dems have been flatlining on 10% since late 2010 so I somehow doubt Laws sounding off will miraculously change that.

I'm not convinced that bringing Laws into public view is a good LD move.

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone know why the bookies pulled the next out of the cabinet markets?

Edit: Or are they still there, if so, can someone post a link to them please.

Like you TSE, I can find no trace of this market on oddschecker.com which is all the more surprising as until recently it was being offered by a number of the major bookies ..... all the more surprising therefore for them ALL to have withdrawn.

Do they know something we don't perhaps?

It really is annoying, it has proven to be a very profitable market in the past, and I really want to back Gove as next out.

Why Gove?

Because he's not having a good time recently and is in the news for all the wrong reasons.

Wouldnt't that mean the odds are relatively unattractive?

FWIW, given that Education and Welfare are the two big reforms this government is executing, I would suggest that Gove or IDS being kicked out is only marginally less likely than Osborne

When the markets are up Gove is usually in the 25/1 to 33/1 range which represents tremendous value.

I'd agree. But presumably they would be lower when he is at the centre of a manufactured firestorm?

Charles

rcs1000 said:

TOPPING said:

Not vs consensus.

££ weakening.

UK consensus was 57.3, so if it was a miss it was marginal.

There are other reasons why the pound is weak today.

Dammit - sent instructions on a GBP to USD trade over the weekend but it won't be executed until this morning.

[Just to keep @another_richard happy I am paying down some of my debt ;-) ]

[Deleted User]

Avery

The stats look super - but the missing stat is imports. The UK, despite things moving generally in the right direction, still has a huge trade balance problem. We need either a superhuman export success or to stop buying so much imported tat & energy.

AndreaParma_82

2011 Welsh Assembly result on the same boundaries

Lab 62% Plaid 27.2 Con 8.2 LD 2.6

On another front, Labour is selecting constituency candidates for Holyrood. Are you interested in them? Several list MSPs selected for targets so far but at least 1 failed in her bid.

Mick_Pork said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Ann Clywd's retirement confirmed by Western Mail

mobile.twitter.com/Steve_Cush/status/430077287632232448/photo/1

Born in 1937, she won the Cynon Valley by-election in 1984. She leaves a 32.2% majority over Plaid.

Lib dems got 13.8% in 2010. Can't see them getting that in 2015 somehow.
Tories 10.1% and the kippers 3.4%. Will be an interesting one to watch.

AveryLP

rcs1000 said:

AveryLP said:

More good news to deter idle thoughts

Markit's UK Manufacturing PMI comes in a 56.7, a touch down on December's 57.2, but still well above series average of 51.3.

Factory outputs up, strong inflow of orders, improved domestic demand and rising export orders all reported. Near record rates of new employment, across all enterprise sizes and sectors. Input and output prices rising but at a declining rate.

Who needs a new leader when we have an economy performing like this?

Link to Markit Press Release: http://bit.ly/1k2Dpyg

hah! beat you to it this morning :-)

It takes time to prepare yellow boxes, Robert!

So here goes:

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs 

Germany       56.5    32-month high
Netherlands   54.8    3-month low  
Austria       54.1    Unchanged    
Italy         53.1    2-month low  
Ireland       52.8    2-month low  
Spain         52.2    45-month high
Greece        51.2    65-month high
France        49.3    4-month high 

Style not timing!

Alanbrooke

AveryLP said:

More good news to deter idle thoughts

Markit's UK Manufacturing PMI comes in a 56.7, a touch down on December's 57.2, but still well above series average of 51.3.

Factory outputs up, strong inflow of orders, improved domestic demand and rising export orders all reported. Near record rates of new employment, across all enterprise sizes and sectors. Input and output prices rising but at a declining rate.

Who needs a new leader when we have an economy performing like this?

Link to Markit Press Release: http://bit.ly/1k2Dpyg

Unfortunately Mr Pole you didn't think to do some reforms in 2011, such as freeing up commercial finance, getting training programmes on a roll, encouraging capital investment. I suppose it's only a matter of time until we start to hit the capacity buffers in our shrunken manufacturing sector. If you had done some reforms the indices could keep rolling for some time yet.

In other good news LBG takes a £ 1.8bn charge for PPI. So with RBS I make that nearly £5 billion of misconduct charges for the tax payer to bail out in the last week. Why are we protecting these behemoths ? Much better to break them up and have a functioning banking sector.

Mick_Pork

A somewhat pollyanna view of the hole the lib dems are in, but the polling does explain why Clegg's ostrich faction of spinners have chosen to keep trying to 'differentiate' on Gove.

Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 25m

I wrote about the polling that informs this Lib Dem Gove row in November http://specc.ie/1gvOxly

rcs1000

AveryLP said:

rcs1000 said:

AveryLP said:

More good news to deter idle thoughts

Markit's UK Manufacturing PMI comes in a 56.7, a touch down on December's 57.2, but still well above series average of 51.3.

Factory outputs up, strong inflow of orders, improved domestic demand and rising export orders all reported. Near record rates of new employment, across all enterprise sizes and sectors. Input and output prices rising but at a declining rate.

Who needs a new leader when we have an economy performing like this?

Link to Markit Press Release: http://bit.ly/1k2Dpyg

hah! beat you to it this morning :-)

It takes time to prepare yellow boxes, Robert!

So here goes:

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs 

Germany       56.5    32-month high
Netherlands   54.8    3-month low  
Austria       54.1    Unchanged    
Italy         53.1    2-month low  
Ireland       52.8    2-month low  
Spain         52.2    45-month high
Greece        51.2    65-month high
France        49.3    4-month high 

Style not timing!

I tried to get SeanT to take me on on a bet on Greek growth, but I think he bottled it :-(

Alanbrooke

AveryLP said:

rcs1000 said:

AveryLP said:

More good news to deter idle thoughts

Markit's UK Manufacturing PMI comes in a 56.7, a touch down on December's 57.2, but still well above series average of 51.3.

Factory outputs up, strong inflow of orders, improved domestic demand and rising export orders all reported. Near record rates of new employment, across all enterprise sizes and sectors. Input and output prices rising but at a declining rate.

Who needs a new leader when we have an economy performing like this?

Link to Markit Press Release: http://bit.ly/1k2Dpyg

hah! beat you to it this morning :-)

It takes time to prepare yellow boxes, Robert!

So here goes:

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs 

Germany       56.5    32-month high
Netherlands   54.8    3-month low  
Austria       54.1    Unchanged    
Italy         53.1    2-month low  
Ireland       52.8    2-month low  
Spain         52.2    45-month high
Greece        51.2    65-month high
France        49.3    4-month high 

Style not timing!

We know you don't understand timing. :-)

TOPPING

rcs1000 said:

TOPPING said:

Not vs consensus.

££ weakening.

UK consensus was 57.3, so if it was a miss it was marginal.

There are other reasons why the pound is weak today.

huh?

consensus is just that, what market participants expect. It missed and we are seeing a dip in GBP. Will you be as relaxed if US PMI comes in at less than 53.9?

Good for exporters, maybe (as per @Patrick's comment).

AveryLP

Patrick said:

Avery

The stats look super - but the missing stat is imports. The UK, despite things moving generally in the right direction, still has a huge trade balance problem. We need either a superhuman export success or to stop buying so much imported tat & energy.

It is quite difficult to raise exports and lower imports when the pound has risen in value by 10% in a year (against Bloomberg basket).

We are doing it though but at the pace of a snail on barbiturates.

Eurozone upturn should help.

TGOHF

Mick_Pork said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Mick_Pork said:

67% of Scots in latest ICM poll want Cameron v Salmond debate #democracy #indyref http://news.stv.tv/politics/262524-new-poll-suggests-support-for-independence-growing-among-scots/ …

Interesting, I hadn't realised Cameron was so popular in Scotland.

If that was the case then Cammie will be very keen to debate with "every-fibre of his being".
Won't he?

*chortle*

Salmond is setting his sights too low - how about a debate with the president of the EU - or perhaps a 3 way with Putin and Obama ?

I bet 90% of Scots would like to see that debate.

Go Eck !

edmundintokyo

Lennon said:

Technical point - if they get to 44 votes but not 45 - and then Cameron loses 4 MP's so he is at 299 instead of the current 303 - that makes the 15% requirement 44 not 45 - is a no confidence vote then triggered?

Presumably it would be - if not I guess one of the existing signatories could give the process a kick by withdrawing their letter then sending it in again...

If a number of Members of the House of Commons, in receipt of the Conservative Whip, amounting to not less than 15% of the members of the parliamentary party advise the Chairman of the 1922 Committee in writing, either collectively or separately, that they wish there to be a vote of confidence in the leader, the Chairman, without disclosing the names of any of the signatories, shall inform the leader of the party that a vote of confidence is to be held.

"The Chairman, after consultation with the leader, shall determine the actual date of such a vote which shall be held as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing.

"If the leader receives a simple majority of the votes cast in such a ballot, he shall remain as leader and no further vote of confidence shall be called for a period of at least 12 months from the date of the ballot.

"If the leader fails to obtain a majority of the votes cast, he shall resign as leader of the party and shall not be permitted to stand in the election which follows."

So yeah, presumably it could be triggered by a death or resignation, since the parliamentary party will shrink at that point. (I suppose this is better for Cameron than it being triggered by the by-election loss that follows a death or resignation.)

Mick_Pork

AndreaParma_82 said:

2011 Welsh Assembly result on the same boundaries

Lab 62% Plaid 27.2 Con 8.2 LD 2.6

On another front, Labour is selecting constituency candidates for Holyrood. Are you interested in them? Several list MSPs selected for targets so far but at least 1 failed in her bid.

Mick_Pork said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Ann Clywd's retirement confirmed by Western Mail

mobile.twitter.com/Steve_Cush/status/430077287632232448/photo/1

Born in 1937, she won the Cynon Valley by-election in 1984. She leaves a 32.2% majority over Plaid.

Lib dems got 13.8% in 2010. Can't see them getting that in 2015 somehow.
Tories 10.1% and the kippers 3.4%. Will be an interesting one to watch.

I tend to think scottish labour MPs will be far more interested in them considering just how early they are. If you have the info at hand Andrea it could be useful but I think it will get reasonable coverage anyway so don't put yourself out.

AveryLP

Alanbrooke said:

AveryLP said:

More good news to deter idle thoughts

Markit's UK Manufacturing PMI comes in a 56.7, a touch down on December's 57.2, but still well above series average of 51.3.

Factory outputs up, strong inflow of orders, improved domestic demand and rising export orders all reported. Near record rates of new employment, across all enterprise sizes and sectors. Input and output prices rising but at a declining rate.

Who needs a new leader when we have an economy performing like this?

Link to Markit Press Release: http://bit.ly/1k2Dpyg

Unfortunately Mr Pole you didn't think to do some reforms in 2011, such as freeing up commercial finance, getting training programmes on a roll, encouraging capital investment. I suppose it's only a matter of time until we start to hit the capacity buffers in our shrunken manufacturing sector. If you had done some reforms the indices could keep rolling for some time yet.

In other good news LBG takes a £ 1.8bn charge for PPI. So with RBS I make that nearly £5 billion of misconduct charges for the tax payer to bail out in the last week. Why are we protecting these behemoths ? Much better to break them up and have a functioning banking sector.

Not rising to the bait this morning, Mr. Brooke.

There is a queue of yellow boxes waiting for your East Midlands twin and I have a strict 4 hour turnaround target to meet.

Bank recapitalisation and ring-fencing first. Better to be safe before the bankers go out a'courting the metal bashers.

Don't sell your Lloyds shares: they are about to pay a dividend.

Scrapheap_as_was

Richard_Nabavi said:

I'm confused.

There seems to be some fuss about a Labour peer not having her contract renewed by the chap who appointed her.

So, let me get this straight, in order to avoid politicisation of Ofsted, this lady must have her contract renewed purely because she's a Labour peer. i.e. a prominent member of a political party which is ideologically opposed to reform of education. Have I understood this correctly?

It is the most preposterous fuss I've seen in a long time - the media are lapping it up too but it's sheer spin... mind you, she was pictured with Bad Al Campbell on the photos so has probably learned some tricks in that.

Alanbrooke

AveryLP said:

Patrick said:

Avery

The stats look super - but the missing stat is imports. The UK, despite things moving generally in the right direction, still has a huge trade balance problem. We need either a superhuman export success or to stop buying so much imported tat & energy.

It is quite difficult to raise exports and lower imports when the pound has risen in value by 10% in a year (against Bloomberg basket).

We are doing it though but at the pace of a snail on barbiturates.

Eurozone upturn should help.

What flavour of cheese do you favour you surrender monkey ? That's total bollocks. Productivity and innovation drive the BoP. That Osborne lacks policies to address either simply shows how little he understands the economy.

CarlottaVance

TGOHF said:

Mick_Pork said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Mick_Pork said:

67% of Scots in latest ICM poll want Cameron v Salmond debate #democracy #indyref http://news.stv.tv/politics/262524-new-poll-suggests-support-for-independence-growing-among-scots/ …

Interesting, I hadn't realised Cameron was so popular in Scotland.

If that was the case then Cammie will be very keen to debate with "every-fibre of his being".
Won't he?

*chortle*

Salmond is setting his sights too low - how about a debate with the president of the EU - or perhaps a 3 way with Putin and Obama ?

I bet 90% of Scots would like to see that debate.

Go Eck !

Sooner or later, the Nats are going to realise that just because they want something doesn't mean they'll get it.....like the three question referendum, automatic EU membership and guaranteed use of Sterling, to take three examples.....

Mick_Pork

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

Mick_Pork said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Mick_Pork said:

67% of Scots in latest ICM poll want Cameron v Salmond debate #democracy #indyref http://news.stv.tv/politics/262524-new-poll-suggests-support-for-independence-growing-among-scots/ …

Interesting, I hadn't realised Cameron was so popular in Scotland.

If that was the case then Cammie will be very keen to debate with "every-fibre of his being".
Won't he?

*chortle*

Salmond is setting his sights too low - how about a debate with the president of the EU - or perhaps a 3 way with Putin and Obama ?

I bet 90% of Scots would like to see that debate.

Go Eck !

Sooner or later, the Nats are going to realise that just because they want something doesn't mean they'll get it

67% of Scots in latest ICM poll want Cameron v Salmond debate #democracy #indyref http://news.stv.tv/politics/262524-new-poll-suggests-support-for-independence-growing-among-scots/ …

You seriously think they are all Nats Carlotta?

LOL

You should check with your economic guru Ed Balls as he might be upset with that assumption.

TGOHF

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

Mick_Pork said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Mick_Pork said:

67% of Scots in latest ICM poll want Cameron v Salmond debate #democracy #indyref http://news.stv.tv/politics/262524-new-poll-suggests-support-for-independence-growing-among-scots/ …

Interesting, I hadn't realised Cameron was so popular in Scotland.

If that was the case then Cammie will be very keen to debate with "every-fibre of his being".
Won't he?

*chortle*

Salmond is setting his sights too low - how about a debate with the president of the EU - or perhaps a 3 way with Putin and Obama ?

I bet 90% of Scots would like to see that debate.

Go Eck !

Sooner or later, the Nats are going to realise that just because they want something doesn't mean they'll get it.....like the three question referendum, automatic EU membership and guaranteed use of Sterling, to take three examples.....

Actually it is good practice for Eck for when Scotland uses a dollarised pound : "I want to be on the BoE committee" : "No" :" 68% of Scots want me on it ! " : "No" etc etc etc...

SouthamObserver

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I'm confused.

There seems to be some fuss about a Labour peer not having her contract renewed by the chap who appointed her.

So, let me get this straight, in order to avoid politicisation of Ofsted, this lady must have her contract renewed purely because she's a Labour peer. i.e. a prominent member of a political party which is ideologically opposed to reform of education. Have I understood this correctly?

It is the most preposterous fuss I've seen in a long time - the media are lapping it up too but it's sheer spin... mind you, she was pictured with Bad Al Campbell on the photos so has probably learned some tricks in that.

The LDs created the story and I imagine that's why it is getting so much attention. "Member of quangrocracy loses job, will no doubt get different one soon" is a rather less compelling angle.