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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s a strong chance that there could be a Tory leadership contest within the next year and a quarter
The publication of the latest CONHome survey on preferred next party leader is a timely reminder that we could be just 15 months away from a vacancy occurring.
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I think the upshot is that Cameron could easily end up going even if he wasn't particularly unpopular in the party, simply because 45 MPs dislike him or get scared of UKIP (if you're in what used to be a safe seat you won't be interested in optimizing for colleagues in the marginals), and nobody can stop the ball once they've set it rolling.
When the election comes I am not sure that Conhome "polling" will prove much of a guide but Theresa May is almost certainly the clear favourite at the moment.
TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone know why the bookies pulled the next out of the cabinet markets?
Edit: Or are they still there, if so, can someone post a link to them please.
Like you TSE, I can find no trace of this market on oddschecker.com which is all the more surprising as until recently it was being offered by a number of the major bookies ..... all the more surprising therefore for them ALL to have withdrawn.
Do they know something we don't perhaps?
And talking of numbers :
Latest ARSE 2015 GE Projection Countdown :
1 day 1 hour 50 minutes
Hell hath no fury as placewomen scorned.
As for Cameron, has he banned longbows yet, because he watched Robin Hood on tv.
Apologies to posters who replied to my Hillary Clinton related posts last night. I was yanked off to bed by Mrs JackW ..... where .... we made mad passionate sleep !!
Essentially my Hillary position is that if she runs she wins. She may choose not to run and not just health or direct age related reasons. I consider it possible that she may consider that as a former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State that she's done her bit.
Chris Christie has to my mind seen his goose cooked. The latest set of numbers from Quinnipiac are horrible and Bridgegate looks set to run. Voters knew Christie was a bruiser but some revelations cross the line.
The 2016 race without both Hillary and Christie would be wide open and accordingly we look forward to OGH offering a 50/1 or better tip for the presidency .... or as @NickPalmer indicated a latino, gay jew would certainly keep PB threads going for years.
They ARE mad you say? Oh that makes sense then.
If the Tories aren't smashing the polls then you need to understand why. Elitist, arrogant, out of touch, uncaring. So clearly they need a Hammond or Gove or Johnson to replace Cameron and instantly fix all those issues.....
So that leaves Theresa May. For me she is the Tories equivalent of Harperson - quietly shrieking with a glint of something disturbing in her eye. You think she has a better chance of coming over normal? Perhaps if she binned off Oik and Hunt from her cabinet, but aren't they exactly the kind of people the mad backbenchers like? Haven't the Tories got anyone normal hiding in the cabinet who could do a major?
We are in the run up to not only the European Parliament elections but also the general election, and Tory MPs are likely to be more and more disciplined - particularly as everyone now expects a third place finish for the Conservatives in the Euros anyway.
There has also been quite a bit of criticism of the Tory rebels, not only from right-wing commentators but also other MPs and regretful rebels. I imagine this will hit home with any that still think they are bigger than the party and country.
And I think Miliband and Clegg will go before Cameron.
IN our OUT of Europe will dominate it thanks to Farage and the kippers higher VI in 2015 than 2010.
Tory backbenchers will be voting for whether they want another pro-Europe leader like Cammie. (in which case they will have likely at least another five years of the kippers outposturing and outflanking them every single time on Europe and immigration) Or whether they go for a BOO leader to try and stop the kippers.
If they are secretly accumulated why not secretly bin them. Problem solved.
Just like lib dem MPs and the toxic calamity Clegg then.
Gove is the best education minister we have had for 50 years, he has not gone far enough in my view as he has not reinstated grammar school education, but he has done the next best thing.
And he did well on Marr yesterday.
Cam is going nowhere, TM would indeed make a great leader and PM, that said, in the public's eye but it ain't gonna happen. Cam is about as nuanced as it is humanly possible to be wrt EU in that he will give a referendum, but wants in, which is an entirely consistent position.
And his moronic tendency MPs? Like the pre-pubescent schoolboys they imitate, they will fall into line before too long and this whole episode(s) will become supper party anecdotes and not particularly interesting ones at that.
Other than a forced resignation, there is the possibility of a voluntary one. Dave has had eight years at the top, and stepping down in the autumn could put a fresh face on a Tory party wanting to distance itself from a coalition. Fresh faces often get a polling boost, such as Callaghan in 1978, Major in 1992, or Brown may have had in 2007.
Downing Street dragged into row over Michael Gove's sacking of Ofsted chief
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/02/downing-street-row-removal-sally-morgan-ofsted-chair
Add in his silly comments about World War One and he's not had the best few weeks.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/04/will-the-next-tory-leader-be-elected-unopposed/
On the one hand 15% of the party expressing a lack of confidence seems like a blow to his authority in itself, and it would be a good opportunity for somebody ambitious to make it known that they'd be available to take his place.
But on the other you get a leadership election triggered without anything like a plot in place, so maybe the whole thing just fizzles. It's not even clear the no-confidence vote would end up getting the support of all the 45 people who had signed the letters.
If Cameron knew the threshold was getting close, it might even be worth his while to prod somebody to send in the letter that put him over the edge at the time of his choosing and deal with the bomb in a controlled detonation.
Thatcher won in 1990 but was still was forced out.
I'm not sure what number of MPs voting against Dave will end his tenure.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZifWqG2413U
He tried to steer a middle course on Europe, but only angered both the pro-Europeans and the Eurosceptics in the Conservative Party. His failure to ratify the Maastrict Treaty in Britain cost him. He tried to re-focus the Conservative Party on "basics"--rule of law, police, family values, education--but this backfired as the media was encouraged to start digging for scandal, and they found it. His authority was so badly diminished that in 1995, he brought matters to a head by calling a leadership ballot for July and vowing to step down if he did not receive the required majority. His line to his opponents was "Put up or shut up." He won the ballot, but it resolved nothing and he spent his last two years in office marking time. The Conservative Party lost its majority in Parliament in December 1996, but John Major managed to stay in office for a few more months. Finally, his term ran out and he called a General Election for May 1997. It was a long campaign, in which he hoped to stave off defeat and give the Labour Party, now led by Tony Blair, enough time to trip up and lose the election. But on 1 May 1997, the Conservative Party suffered its worst-ever defeat. Labour won by a landslide, with a 179 seat majority in Parliament. John Major held his seat, but a number of cabinet ministers went down to defeat.
http://tinyurl.com/kbcyw9n
Both Mike's bets look reasonable value, though in the case of the Clegg / Cameron departure date, it could be down to a matter of days, but I'm not sure I'd agree with the assertion that "there's a strong chance that there could be a Tory leadership contest within the next year and a quarter". Maybe about 1 in 8.
Far more likely that will be used as the implicit threat to get Cammie to cave in as the panic truly gets out of hand when the hard-line Eurosceptics start demanding more concessions, detail on renegotiation and red lines.
"More turbulence at Ryanair which has announced a €35m loss - its first third quarter loss since 2010. The carrier has blamed a 9pc drop in passenger fares - but these are dictated by demand which is the key problem"
It couldn't happen to a nicer company!
Amused by the small fuss over Ms Morgan. Have they got amnesia about 1997 - 2010? All governments appoint their own people in general, and they always have. I suppose selective memory is the hallmark of politically motivated people.
So…Clegg in his infinite wisdom orders Laws to start attacking Gove personally on the whole education programme. The evil man is trying to restore quality and is daring to oppose the mighty Blob in his quest for excellence.
Clearly Clegg thinks that unhappy lefty teacher votes are more important than parent votes or educational outcomes.
MPs who have written calling for a vote can also later withdraw their letter, or write with a lapse date - both of which have been done in the past - so the chances of one MP setting off the mechanism by accident is unlikely: if there were a large number of legacy 'live' letters but the issue that prompted them had died down, I'd expect the Chairman of the 1922 to have a quiet word with those MPs who'd sent them in to see whether they wanted to withdraw them.
On the question of whether the PM knows the score, I wouldn't assume anything. It will depend entirely on the attitude of the Chairman of the '22. Certainly, MPs will expect him to keep details of the letters secret and that may extend to the number of them too. On the other hand, one of the Chairman's jobs is to keep the leader appraised of disquiet on the backbenches and having received letters is evidence of that.
Vapid posturing on Ofsted won't make any difference. The lib dems have been flatlining on 10% since late 2010 so I somehow doubt Laws sounding off will miraculously change that.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/02/sally-morgan-is-wrong-quangos-are-not-stuffed-with-tories/
I agree with Pork that all talk of a leadership challenge is just vapid posturing.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/dec/11/educational-lottery-best-performing-schools-england-ofsted
I said it would be used as a threat to get the weak Cammie to cave in. Just like he did here. If he doesn't cave in again though then it will all get amusingly out of hand. The tory rebels have proved time and time again they don't give a flying f*** about how divided it makes the tories look or how much it upsets the Cameroons if they decide they've had enough meaningless posturing from the fop.
You must not mistake the languid indolence of the English aristocrat for lack of backbone.
An Old Etonian would never raise a white flag to anyone.
The Sun probably saw Cameron removing his handkerchief from the breast pocket of his suit jacket and leapt to entirely the wrong conclusions.
Dave was not surrendering, merely preparing to blow his nose.
On education, is it not a fact that grammar schools produced better results when they were allowed to use the cane? (At mine, we wondered for years what a caning offence might look like. Then the captain of the First XV got Matron up the duff and we found out...)
You must not mistake the languid indolence of the English aristocrat for lack of backbone.
And Old Etonian would never raise a white flag to anyone.
The Sun probably saw Cameron removing his handkerchief from the breast pocket of his suit jacket and leapt to entirely the wrong conclusions. He was not surrendering, merely preparing to blow his nose.
Hardly a surprise you're retreating to your usual position of someone whose opinion should never be taken seriously on politics. If your aim is to please kippers and tory rebels by presenting a comically out of touch stereotype of the Cameroons then mission accomplished.
Again......
But a better story may have been Exaro'news's take on the Clegg-Balls love-in. I've linked it before but well worth a second read.
See here: http://bit.ly/1lsbhGt
As for caning, I fear for this new found obsession on PB. It will do nothing to relieve Sir Roderick's mounting blood pressure and, according to Neil, will just set off a excited stream of 'shoe' posts from out most distinguished tipster.
In different ways, both David Cameron, the Etonian Oxford graduate from the stockbroker belt, and Ed Miliband, the Oxford-educated policy wonk from the North London intelligentsia, alienate the struggling blue-collar voters who are defecting en masse to Ukip.
Both leaders have led lives a million miles away from the life of the average Ukip voter. This makes it hard for them to credibly claim to understand or represent the struggles of these voters who feel insecure, left behind and angry....
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100257745/ukip-supporters-really-dislike-posh-dave-but-they-cant-stand-ed-miliband-either/
Poor old scottish tory surgers. Always doomed to be out of touch with scottish public opinion.
Again...
There seems to be some fuss about a Labour peer not having her contract renewed by the chap who appointed her.
So, let me get this straight, in order to avoid politicisation of Ofsted, this lady must have her contract renewed purely because she's a Labour peer. i.e. a prominent member of a political party which is ideologically opposed to reform of education. Have I understood this correctly?
mobile.twitter.com/Steve_Cush/status/430077287632232448/photo/1
Born in 1937, she won the Cynon Valley by-election in 1984. She leaves a 32.2% majority over Plaid.
I think we can take that as seriously as your conspiracy theory and prediction that boundary changes would be saved by a deal between Cammie and the SNP.
Manufacturing PMI numbers for Europe are out, and they're pretty much universally good.
UK 56.7
Germany 56.5
Switzerland 56.1
Italy 53.1
Ireland 52.8
Spain 52.3
Greece 51.2
...
China 50.5
...
France 49.3
The UK numbers are fabulous, but everywhere is improving. Even France - the only European country showing a contraction - showed an improvement on December's figures. Greece is above 50 for the first time in about 5 years. Spain is at a four year high.
Is economic recovery going to be in time for Dave? (Or his continental peers?)
££ weakening.
Not watched much news lately, but the 'story' is just bonkers, and the fact it's been at or near the top of the BBC's website is deranged.
"The Tories only want Tories in top jobs! They're politicising bodies like Oftsed!" claims outgoing Labour peer.
"Who appointed you?" no journalist bothers to ask.
"That evil Conservative, Gove!"
It's not remotely a story. It's practically a second yacht, aboard which no money was sought, and no money was given.
Tories 10.1% and the kippers 3.4%. Will be an interesting one to watch.
FWIW, given that Education and Welfare are the two big reforms this government is executing, I would suggest that Gove or IDS being kicked out is only marginally less likely than Osborne
Markit's UK Manufacturing PMI comes in a 56.7, a touch down on December's 57.2, but still well above series average of 51.3.
Factory outputs up, strong inflow of orders, improved domestic demand and rising export orders all reported. Near record rates of new employment, across all enterprise sizes and sectors. Input and output prices rising but at a declining rate.
Who needs a new leader when we have an economy performing like this?
Link to Markit Press Release: http://bit.ly/1k2Dpyg
Won't he?
*chortle*
There are other reasons why the pound is weak today.
[Just to keep @another_richard happy I am paying down some of my debt ;-) ]
The stats look super - but the missing stat is imports. The UK, despite things moving generally in the right direction, still has a huge trade balance problem. We need either a superhuman export success or to stop buying so much imported tat & energy.
Lab 62% Plaid 27.2 Con 8.2 LD 2.6
On another front, Labour is selecting constituency candidates for Holyrood. Are you interested in them? Several list MSPs selected for targets so far but at least 1 failed in her bid.
So here goes: Style not timing!
In other good news LBG takes a £ 1.8bn charge for PPI. So with RBS I make that nearly £5 billion of misconduct charges for the tax payer to bail out in the last week. Why are we protecting these behemoths ? Much better to break them up and have a functioning banking sector.
consensus is just that, what market participants expect. It missed and we are seeing a dip in GBP. Will you be as relaxed if US PMI comes in at less than 53.9?
Good for exporters, maybe (as per @Patrick's comment).
We are doing it though but at the pace of a snail on barbiturates.
Eurozone upturn should help.
I bet 90% of Scots would like to see that debate.
Go Eck !
There is a queue of yellow boxes waiting for your East Midlands twin and I have a strict 4 hour turnaround target to meet.
Bank recapitalisation and ring-fencing first. Better to be safe before the bankers go out a'courting the metal bashers.
Don't sell your Lloyds shares: they are about to pay a dividend.
67% of Scots in latest ICM poll want Cameron v Salmond debate #democracy #indyref http://news.stv.tv/politics/262524-new-poll-suggests-support-for-independence-growing-among-scots/ …
You seriously think they are all Nats Carlotta?
LOL
You should check with your economic guru Ed Balls as he might be upset with that assumption.