Categories
LAB opens a 40% gap over CON in London – politicalbetting.com
LAB opens a 40% gap over CON in London – politicalbetting.com
Exactly a month on from now we will be pouring over the latest local election results and if the national polls are in any way indicative then the tourists are going to be in for a dreadful night.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
SKS fans please explainThe last London only poll I recall was Survation in the last days of the Trussite Period when great beasts like the Kwartengodon still walked the earth.
Without checking I think it showed a London lead for Labour in the mid-30s but it had a very large sample for a poll.
The YouGov is a 12% swing from the last GE.
The good news is the LDs would hold their three seats even with that electoral tsunami.
It compares with the 18% England swing in Monday’s Redfield & Wilton.
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/manchins-presidential-flirtation-raises-big-2024-questions-rcna77875
He cannot be serious ?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Conservative_Party_MPs_in_London
And the six survivors are nearly all in the sort of places that say "Kent/Essex, actually". Sometimes quite aggressively.
How do the people of Pinner feel about their Londonness?
Buckingham Palace has said that it is co-operating with an independent study exploring the relationship between the British monarchy and the slave trade in the 17th and 18th centuries.
The Palace said King Charles takes the issue "profoundly seriously".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65200570
The death rate for Covid still markedly exceeds that of flu for hospitalized patients with either virus (6% vs 3.75%), as seen among people age 65+, and is higher among unvaccinated, in the @DeptVetAffairs dataset..
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1643993099616804864
If you’re sick enough to be hospitalised, vaccination improves your chances, but not all that much. Of course the vaccinated are a lot less likely to be hospitalised, too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jD9e_nZ4y_c
Ron Johnson tells Maria Bartiromo that his priority as a US senator right now is "advocating for the vaccine injured"
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1643981076069744645
Staunch supporters of the monarchy love wokeism.
In related news we lost one of our cats on monday. Twenty years old, up till last week he was old but still himself - eating well, enjoying going outside. Sudden deterioration over the weekend, put to sleep on Monday.
That we all had such an experience - a full happy life and taken swiftly at the end.
The Lib Dems are polling about the same. The polls were very volatile, and The Brexit Party were polling strongly. The latter translated into a a very big vote for independents, residents, local parties in the local elections. I suspect the latter will fall back heavily, to the benefit of the big parties.
Tomorrow's World unveils the exciting new future which is digital audio. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPD1IKC3myA
Imagine if we had someone like Judith Hann today doing an excited telly review of AI!
The slavery thing is undeniably a fact; it is impossible that the monarchy is not massively implicated - as is all power and wealth during the relevant period - and so it is sensible to take some action - as the Church of England has done.
ER II possessed a magic immunity because of reasons of being around for ever and never saying anything. Charles doesn't. The immunity is not coming back in our time.
I expect egg prices to go down, a little, as the flocks recover from the bird flu. (Farmers may start vaccinating their birds, soon, I've read.)
Cage free eggs sell for more, as they have for years. Since I don't buy them, I can't give you a price, but I think the prices are at least a dollar more per dozen. (It occurs to me that the supermarkets may want a fairly large difference, since few buyers will feel very virtuous if they are paying only a few pennies more per cage-free egg.)
There are substantial variations in US egg prices by area, but, as far as I know, my experience is fairly typical.
(The price of chicken has come down. I often see specials as low as .$99 a pound for drumsticks and thighs, and sometimes $1.29 a pound for whole chickens. Those prices dropping earlier than for eggs makes sense, since it takes longer to raise layers than chickens for meat.)
I'm not sure that's entirely comforting to Rishi, mind.
Its not a simple question.
No issues at all with increasing education about the issues. That could have been done with Colston in Bristol. History is complex. People bought and sold slaves. It was legal at the time. We do not regard that as fitting our moral compass now. In 100 years we may regard eating meat as abhorrent (some already do). Will we tear down statues of people who ate meat?*
*Probably.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
YouGov 30.3.23 C26 L46 LD9 G7 R7
YouGov 3.4.19 C32 L31 LD12 G4 B/UK12
Opinion 31.3.23 C29 L44 LD9 G5 R7
Opinion 29.3.19 C35 L35 LD9 G5 B/UK9
Deltapoll 3.4.23 C27 L48 LD9 G4 R5
Deltapoll 30.3.19 C36 L40 LD7 G3 B/UK7
Savanta 2.4.23 C29 L45 LD10 G3 R5
ComRes 7.4.19 C32 L32 LD7 G3 B/UK9 CUK9
(Savanta acquired ComRes in the past 4 years).
So on average since 2019 C -6 L +11 LD +0.5 G +1 R-3
Quite a bit of volatility though.
"My view is that the public has decided that the time for the Tory government is up and to let somebody else have a chance. In certain seats it will be the Labour Party that benefits most as being the force most likely to beat the Conservative. In a range of other seats the Lib Dems are going to do particularly well." @MikeSmithson
Mike is right. The sea change has already taken place and nothing now is going to reverse it. The Conservatives are going to get pummelled and they are only making things worse for themselves by a blatantly obvious series of revolting right-wing policies.
The public aren't stupid and we've had enough.
I now want a labour government. If nothing else its their 'turn'. But the Tories are still polling around 30%, so your statement does not represent everyone.
Mostly because if I knew Heathener and had a different political opinion, I wouldn't be so rash as to mention it to Heathener.
So your objection lacks force.
OTOH, I'm not all that confident about the collective intelligence of the public.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1644006801254350848
And the public (collectively) have had enough. Less than 2 years and counting.
And whilst there isn't the same fury there was this time last year, at the peak of Partygate, it seems to have largely been replaced by a complete lack of interest in what Conservatives say. Most of it won't happen, so who cares?
https://robinmcalpine.org/how-bad-is-this/
He thinks Forbes will be SNP leader by Christmas
This penitance isn't just for a domestic audience.
In practice, it’s the Tories who have ended up being weaker than whale piss on crime. Your chances of being tried and convicted of pretty much anything are at an all time low.
See also - Cons could pledge to abolish the RAF and Lab could pledge to sell the NHS to Crispin Odey and they would still be seen as protectors of the armed forces and the NHS respectively.
Edit: plus of course the most notable recent non lock up of a sexual offender was in Scottishland.
Invoking 'the Romans' seems to me a rather pathetic attempt to imply that Britain was reviving a barbaric ancient practise, rather than partaking in a trade that had been a constant in human society since records had been kept.
In what way?
Bloody hell.
I'm starting to think even @malcolmg has been underplaying it.
Tory planning proposals are expected to reduce current build rates to 156k a year, according to analysis from Lichfields.
https://twitter.com/paul_slg/status/1635720805987254289?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg
This bit jumped out the page, but for legal reasons we shouldn't speculate as to what he might be driving at...
As a PR guy, where I’d be looking first if I was trying to find the biggest next bear traps is SNP HQ complaints procedure, how it was operated and whether there are serious incidents which were suppressed for political reasons.
I’m also in favour of proper densification, which Britain doesn’t really do.
You can have two of:
1. Green belt / countryside preservation
2. Low rise cities
3. Unaffordable housing
Britain chooses 1 and 2.
It emphatically isn't the case that all government spending is good, or that the capacity to support it is infinite.
But the public sector has had over a decade of trying to do more with less, and the capacity for efficiency savings has pretty much run dry. Yes, we're paying more tax; google "dependency ratio" if you are puzzled as to what's going on.
There are lots of areas where the government's rhetoric simply can't happen, because of a lack of spondulicks. And that is in part becuase of the way of government went about rebalancing its budget from 2010. And continues to do so.
Braverman effectively said the same about Labour.
Doesn't excuse it, though. And stooping anywhere near Braverman's level is not a good look.
2019 saw a very mixed picture and national polling may be too crude a device to build a picture of what might happen next month. What we saw last time these seats were contested was, particularly in parts of the south, an anti-party vote so various shades of Independent, Residents and local anti-large scale high density development groups do very well.
Both the LDs and Greens, often but not always in a tacit electoral pact, prospered and the victims in parts of the south were the Conservatives. However, the Conservatives were aided by the unpopularity of Corbyn’s Labour so results in the north and midlands weren’t too bad and the Tories also prospered in the south where the opposition was weak and/or disorganised.
This time, Labour appears much stronger and will be seeking significant gains across the country from north to south.
As a case study, the Conservatives control Dudley with a majority of 20 (46-26). The 24 seats up for grabs this time split 13 CON and 11 LAB in 2019. The split in terms of votes was Conservative 40%, Labour 33%.
For Labour to gain control of Dudley they would need to win 22 of the 24 seats on offer which means picking up 11 of the 13 Conservative seats which looks a tall order - I could see them winning seven which would put the party in a good position for the 2024 round.
In Walsall, the 20 seats up for grabs include 13 Conservative defences. Labour needs to win 8 to take control. That looks more likely.
Yousless is continuity nippie. So he has shackled himself to the ship as it sinks under the scandal. Forbes as leader of the internal opposition inherits whatever is left.
Not saying the penitance might not still be for more than a domestic audience, but I imagine King Sausage Fingers is pretty realistic about how long he will be head of state in any part of the Caribbean.
"The British historians wrote almost as if Britain had introduced Negro slavery solely for the satisfaction of abolishing it"
As a matter of interest several West African states have made public apologies for their role in the transatlantic slave trade:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2000-05-01-0005010158-story.html
https://www.modernghana.com/news/102692/ghana-apologizes-to-slaves-descendants.html
Ghana also has in interesting right of return policy to the African diaspora by means of apology.
But circumstances could (10%-20% chance?) so conspire that 'morally' they both lose ie, most people are against them both for reasons. It only takes Abbott, Pidcock and Burgon to try harder. Or some other Black Swan.
At which point one of the losers has to be on top. Since all politics is relative. It could be the Tories, as they currently hold the seats. If Labour blow it, the result as seen from right now would be pretty random.
Bet accordingly. And hope Labour win
What we need to really push is the idea of younger people living in central apartments. Regenerate city and town centres, fit more people into a smaller space, bring shops and restaurants to life.
Instead? Crush in homes people don't want into places with no services and watch as these new estates slowly corrode into petty crime and vandalism hotspots.
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1231543272943898626
Their actual administration of law enforcement and criminal justice has been pathetic.
Frankly no one who’s been in government for several decades now has much to be proud about when it comes to dealing with child abuse.