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YouGov on public reaction to the budget – politicalbetting.com
YouGov on public reaction to the budget – politicalbetting.com
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YouGov on public reaction to the budget – politicalbetting.com
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These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
But then, Starmer is King Meh and he’s 20 points ahead in the polls, so maybe this is the way things are now. Crap politicians offering incrementalism as the country slowly stagnates, Japan-style.
Look to the Labour manifesto at the next election, specifically these two questions: are they committed to the triple lock? And are they going to sideline the nimbies and take decisive action to get huge numbers of houses built? If the answer to the first question is "yes" and the second "no", then Starmer will be continuity Sunak and anything else he proposes will constitute so much reshuffling of deckchairs.
I was very disappointed when my father-in-law sold it as it is a beautiful part of the world. Some stunning scenery, plenty of history and great, economical food (local restaurant used to do a great 3 course set menu for €12). Great for cycling too.
Spent the day applying for my own job. The one I've been doing for over six months.
Was repeatedly assured if I don't get it, it won't matter cos I've got the job as long as I want it anyways.
Education is weird.
Now those same voters are faced with a rather less distressing but still uninspiring choice. But this time I think they’ll plump for Starmer.
An excerpt.
At first, it looked like a strange post-Covid blip: the number signed off sick from work was surging, with no proper reason. It might have been delayed effects from furlough, but ministers decided to wait to let things settle. They never did. Now some 5,000 a day are claiming sickness benefits, twice the pre-Covid rate. This week, the Office for Budget Responsibility decided that the Government has lost control. It expects this slide to continue until 12 per cent of the country are on some form of sickness benefit.
This is a swift and staggering change (it was not even 8 per cent before the lockdowns) but horribly consistent with othe
Folk are sick all right.
Sick of the well off playing the system while they struggle. Having some of that is attractive.
Cos working for a living on low pay is a bloody mug's game.
Only societal pressure is keeping so many going.
All my TA's would quit if there was no stigma.
They wouldn't be worse off.
vote has been in the low to mid 50s%. And unlike in 2019 and 2015 when the others were as much anti Labour as anti Tory, this time of you’re not voting conservative you’re voting to kick them out.
Tactical voting = Labour maj and decent LD seat gains. No tactical voting = both parties underperforming again.
Why? Because (unlike the illegal immigration bill) it lacks any real drama, unless you are an economist or an accountant. No soaring rhetoric, no bold bullet points. Just a lot of (as someone just said EL CAPITANO) meh.
Opposition can thrust and party, stab and slash . . . a Big Blog of True Blue jello . . .
With special, subliminal appeal to the the BJ nostalgia crowd?
@LukePollard
Overnight Plymouth’s Conservative council chopped down nearly 100 trees in the city centre. It’s a scene of environmental devastation and utter council vandalism. I’m appalled at the actions of the Tory Council. Sad day for our city. #plymouth #ArmadaWay"
https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1635902400169926656
R4 with a report on Dutch local elections!!
Now, my starting point is that teaching should be a high value profession, and that we need to be recruiting more high quality people into teaching (apart from English Literature, obviously). I'm happy to see the state pay for this.
But my emotional reaction to strikes is that I don't want to see the strikers win. Partly this is a don't-pay-out-to-hostage-takers-it-only-encourages-them-and-you-lose-out-in-the-long-run reaction. But mostly its an adversarial thing: when teachers strike, it feels personal, and it makes me as a consumer an adversary of them. Particularly when you see the circus of knobheads parading through London. Worrying that some of them are let anywhere near educating children.
Strikes in the private sector are fine. I can take a happily neutral reaction to people withoding their labour. But it's hard not to feel public sector strikers are taking on me personally. So once the battle has become adversarial it's hard to muster any enthusiasm for them winning.
Intellectually, I can see why they're doing it. And there are teachers I respect who are on strike (though I'd respect them more if they weren't). But my point is, emotionally, I blame strikes on the strikers, and the government will get no credit from me for capitulating.
We've not really discussed the Dutch local elections, but they sound something seismic, no? Equivalent to, I don't know, the Ratepayers' Party suddenly topping the polls.
Sounds to me more like your SLT are weird.
Not that that's unusual.
https://www.theregister.com/2023/03/16/globalization_morris_chang_tsmc/
But whenever a government invokes the 49:3, it can be sure it will be accused straight away of riding roughshod over the will of the people.
In fact, it has been used precisely 100 times in the more than 60 years of the Fifth Republic, and by governments of all shades.
Obviously, it tends to be used more frequently by governments that do not have an in-built majority in parliament, such as the socialist Michel Rocard's in the 1980s and Élisabeth Borne's today.
She has in fact already used it several times, but those occasions were for public finance bills which were less controversial.
Use of the procedure is a way to bypass a vote which might be lost, but the down side for the government is that the opposition parties can immediately table a vote of no-confidence.
If these are voted through, the government falls. That is a theoretical possibility now, but unlikely, because it would mean the far-right, the left and much of the conservative opposition all coming together.
The dispute once again makes France look unreformable. By comparison with other countries in Europe, the change to the pension age is far from dramatic.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64984374
https://nltimes.nl/2023/03/15/exit-poll-shows-dutch-coalition-will-lose-8-seats-senate-bbb-becomes-biggest-party
The Dutch government has been pressing for a reduction in the number of animal farms in order to reduce emissions and get space to build more homes. Essentially they will now need to work with either the left (who like that policy but dislike an anti-refugee policy) or the right (the opposite), even more than before.
I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
I'd dispute the idea mid term polls are meaningless. They are not of sole relevance, but that is not the same as them being entirely irrelevant. Performing well above or well below where those who have won the next election have been would be at least a partial indicator, if bearing in mind what if anything looks like it could change things.
I'm slightly surprised I didn't know the far right had won last time. That also sounds seismic.
UC is £159 pw if you can prove you are too ill to look for work or do any work preparation, but that is inevitiably going to need medical evidence.
£159 pw = c.£690 pm. You're hardly going to be having a wonderful life. Few choose to go down that route unless they genuinely have to imo.
They haven't specified which subjects or year groups.
"Guo Wengui, a Chinese businessman with ties to former Trump White House adviser Stephen K. Bannon, was arrested Wednesday as federal prosecutors unsealed an indictment alleging that he defrauded his online followers out of more than $1 billion.
Prosecutors allege that Guo — formally charged as Ho Wan Kwok and known as “Miles Guo” — spent some of the money on a lavish lifestyle that included a mansion, sports cars and a luxury yacht."
source$:https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/15/guo-wengui-arrested-fraud-charges/
As most of you probably recall, Bannon was pardoned by Trump for a somewhat similar, but smaller scale, scam.
(I believe the feds have already seized much of Gu Wengui's fortune.)
(Don't get me wrong, I deplore the low wages paid for these vital jobs. But not working is not a great option either.)
The thing is, Roger, if you're (with apologies if I'm misrepresenting you) a middle class internationalist with fashionable Guardianist opinions, you almost always have a choice. If you're tastes are more small state and/or you think the Guardian a bit daft, you have a choice of a Conservative Party or some seldom savoury rag tag and bobtails. So the Conservatives do rather hoover up the votes of people who are not necessarily enthusiastic about them but aren't utterly hostile to them.
Yes. Our SLT are bizarre.
Indeed
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/16/politics/mar-a-lago-trump-subpoenas/index.html
Biden however leads DeSantis only 47% to 46%
https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1636092750285217794?s=20
STV is the way forward!
The marginal benefits for getting up at 6:30 at being physically assaulted and sworn at ?
No sick pay when you're concussed. And can't defend yourself.
Would you do it?
Trump appears, for no apparent reason, to have deliberately been evasive and obstructive about what he holds for a long time, and not returning a very large amount of confidential things, seemingly out of a belief that he can hold onto whatever he wants just because.
Yet I bet the two are declared the same.
Met police on ‘last chance’ as Casey report to condemn failure to change
Exclusive: findings of official review due out on Tuesday described as ‘horrible’ and ‘atrocious’ for force
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/16/met-police-on-last-chance-as-casey-report-to-condemn-failure-to-change
That ought to worry the Conservatives a lot.
Are we sure the Germans didn’t get there first?
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=347271
Introducing a new central government agency dedicated to Korea's immigration policies is apparently gaining momentum after Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon returned from Europe where he studied the migrant policies of advanced countries.
Han met with key immigration policymakers in France, Germany and the Netherlands during his trip from March 7 to Wednesday...
..."Minister Zegerius, in particular, candidly told me how she had arrived in the Netherlands as a first-generation immigrant when she was a child and grew up to become the country's top immigration policymaker," said Han. "It was a really meaningful meeting for me."
The foreign leaders asked Han why Korea wishes to introduce a new immigration policy control tower that's similar to their own, according to the Korean minister. Han answered, "There is no country on earth with a perfect set of immigration policies. Neither would there be a country without systematic immigration policies that will ever successfully run its own affairs."
The countries that saw Han's latest visit all have low birthrate and aging society problems, which Korea is now experiencing. A part of the countries' solutions was embracing immigrants through inclusive governance...
Of course tax credits help but..
That £159 is tempting when you understand how truly shit the retail sector is.
Turns out they were fighting still in Ukraine
https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/1636385968570908679?s=20
Yes yes, it's not really necessary, or useful, and it annoys candidates, workers and volunteers alike, but there's just something...right about those standing for election finding out their results between 11pm and 5am, bleary eyed after a day of pounding the streets.
Think of the poor political nerds who either have no reason to stay up overnight to follow election results, or are denied being able to wake up and see the state of play.
Bad news though for Conservative candidates whose main opponent is Labour
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/mar/16/gareth-southgate-fears-successor-will-face-shortage-of-english-players
* And, by the way, I assume you mean British Citizens, otherwise you are suggesting that there are internal restrictions in the UK on who may work where
To be posted anywhere but Bakhmut once the AFU have dragooned you is 1,000 EUR which seems like value for money although there is massive premium for Lviv on top of that.
(Source: UK Ukrainian Diaspora Telegram channels)
The polls aren't shifting because the public have made up their minds.
p.s. good morning from Asia!
The London mayor count is embarrassingly slow, for example.
Apparently there is no glory to war according to it, which I guess means you're not supposed to fight back if attacked or assist the downtrodden or anything like that.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1636525611391827968?s=20
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1635966584396054528/photo/1