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YouGov on public reaction to the budget – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2023 in General
imageYouGov on public reaction to the budget – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,016
    edited March 2023
    Interesting. The child care and energy give aways really don't seem to have cut through as Hunt would have hoped.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    edited March 2023
    Not much of significance there, no strong feelings about the Budget either way other than it seems to have gone down slightly better with middle class ABC1 voters than working class C2DE voters
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,016
    Is there anybody there said the traveller, knocking on the moonlit door.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,127
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,016
    Today's apparent deal with the health unions, if it sticks, will probably do the Tories more good than the budget. They really need to wind down the public sector strikes.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,758
    edited March 2023
    Looks like a general shrug of the shoulders from GBP. At least it's not gone down like a bowl of cold sick as some budgets have in the past so that's something for HMG...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,016
    Is everyone watching Arsenal instead?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    It’s a meh budget from a meh chancellor.

    But then, Starmer is King Meh and he’s 20 points ahead in the polls, so maybe this is the way things are now. Crap politicians offering incrementalism as the country slowly stagnates, Japan-style.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,878
    DavidL said:

    Today's apparent deal with the health unions, if it sticks, will probably do the Tories more good than the budget. They really need to wind down the public sector strikes.

    I suspect that when the nurses discover the consequences of the deal they won’t be happy. It’s something like a 8% hidden paycut with a one off payment that hides it
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,989
    DavidL said:

    Today's apparent deal with the health unions, if it sticks, will probably do the Tories more good than the budget. They really need to wind down the public sector strikes.

    They really need to pay out to the teachers now. I was WFH today looking after the children as their schools were shut. And then today of all days Virgin broadband went down for the whole street until 5pm. Two days' worth off work to get through tomorrow...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,437
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Today's apparent deal with the health unions, if it sticks, will probably do the Tories more good than the budget. They really need to wind down the public sector strikes.

    I suspect that when the nurses discover the consequences of the deal they won’t be happy. It’s something like a 8% hidden paycut with a one off payment that hides it
    It wouldn't surprise me if it were rejected. It is a poor offer.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    FPT
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of "dominions" about the easiest way to get a rise out of a Canuck this century, is to start referring to the "Dominion of Canada''.

    Nah, to get a rise out of Canadians just call them Americans.
    Why are you so driven by getting a rise out of people?

    I can't say trolling people gives me any sense of satisfaction or positive feeling, but you really seem to enjoy it.
    I’ve never called any Canadians Americans.

    I know a lot of Canadians though.

    The other thing that boils their piss.

    Their contribution on D-Day, constantly airbrushed.
    Yep, one fifth of the landing troops, give or take.
    Why is their contribution supposed to have been airbrushed? Just wondering. (I really like Goerge Blackburn's books on being a Canadian artilleryman in the Normandy campaign and NWE. But I don't think he was on D-Day, not that it matters given the contribution they clearly made to the war.)
    Broadly D-Day is seen as a US and British affair. For sure the USA had two beaches, and dropped two airborne divisions, the Brits had two beaches and dropped one airborne division. But the Canadians had a beach to themselves, and their navy was present too off shore.
    Thanks. Juno Beach, sure. Surprising it is downplayed at all.
    My father-in-law until a few years ago had a holiday home in Courseulles-sur-Mer (Juno Beach) within a couple of hundred metres of the beach. The first time I went there I looked at an old brick wall of the next door house from the courtyard. The whole wall was covered with pock-marks which I rapidly realised must have been holes from machine-gun fire. Amazingly no one in my wife's family had never realised this until then!

    I was very disappointed when my father-in-law sold it as it is a beautiful part of the world. Some stunning scenery, plenty of history and great, economical food (local restaurant used to do a great 3 course set menu for €12). Great for cycling too.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    Was at work today. Despite the school being on strike and closed.
    Spent the day applying for my own job. The one I've been doing for over six months.
    Was repeatedly assured if I don't get it, it won't matter cos I've got the job as long as I want it anyways.
    Education is weird.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,299
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Today's apparent deal with the health unions, if it sticks, will probably do the Tories more good than the budget. They really need to wind down the public sector strikes.

    I suspect that when the nurses discover the consequences of the deal they won’t be happy. It’s something like a 8% hidden paycut with a one off payment that hides it
    It doesn't even hide it that well, or for that long. (Does the government really want a rerun of this argument in spring 2024?) And the elephant in the room- there are quite a lot of jobs where the public sector can't recruit enough staff- isn't going away on the basis of this offer.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    If there is a new financial crisis those minted elderly homeowners could soon turn against the tories.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,348
    pigeon said:

    It’s a meh budget from a meh chancellor.

    But then, Starmer is King Meh and he’s 20 points ahead in the polls, so maybe this is the way things are now. Crap politicians offering incrementalism as the country slowly stagnates, Japan-style.

    A programme of managed decline, in which the remaining wealth in the economy continues to be redistributed from working people to the retired. It's what the Conservatives are for, but will Labour do anything very different? I'm not convinced.

    Look to the Labour manifesto at the next election, specifically these two questions: are they committed to the triple lock? And are they going to sideline the nimbies and take decisive action to get huge numbers of houses built? If the answer to the first question is "yes" and the second "no", then Starmer will be continuity Sunak and anything else he proposes will constitute so much reshuffling of deckchairs.
    There certainly is a danger that we go from the ridiculous to the soporific. In 2019 voters were faced with a choice between a mendacious charlatan single-handedly trashing the institutions of state, and an overgrown student-Union Kremlin apologist who hated the country he wanted to lead. So they opted for the charlatan.

    Now those same voters are faced with a rather less distressing but still uninspiring choice. But this time I think they’ll plump for Starmer.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,016
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Today's apparent deal with the health unions, if it sticks, will probably do the Tories more good than the budget. They really need to wind down the public sector strikes.

    I suspect that when the nurses discover the consequences of the deal they won’t be happy. It’s something like a 8% hidden paycut with a one off payment that hides it
    Also when you march your troops to the top of the hill demanding 19% its not going to be easy to march them down again for 5%.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    Fraser Nelson ranting about the massive rise in numbers of people claiming sickness benefits in the telegraph.
    An excerpt.

    At first, it looked like a strange post-Covid blip: the number signed off sick from work was surging, with no proper reason. It might have been delayed effects from furlough, but ministers decided to wait to let things settle. They never did. Now some 5,000 a day are claiming sickness benefits, twice the pre-Covid rate. This week, the Office for Budget Responsibility decided that the Government has lost control. It expects this slide to continue until 12 per cent of the country are on some form of sickness benefit.

    This is a swift and staggering change (it was not even 8 per cent before the lockdowns) but horribly consistent with othe


  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    edited March 2023
    Reed said:

    Fraser Nelson ranting about the massive rise in numbers of people claiming sickness benefits in the telegraph.
    An excerpt.

    At first, it looked like a strange post-Covid blip: the number signed off sick from work was surging, with no proper reason. It might have been delayed effects from furlough, but ministers decided to wait to let things settle. They never did. Now some 5,000 a day are claiming sickness benefits, twice the pre-Covid rate. This week, the Office for Budget Responsibility decided that the Government has lost control. It expects this slide to continue until 12 per cent of the country are on some form of sickness benefit.

    This is a swift and staggering change (it was not even 8 per cent before the lockdowns) but horribly consistent with othe


    What does the good Doctor Fraser consider a "proper" reason?
    Folk are sick all right.
    Sick of the well off playing the system while they struggle. Having some of that is attractive.
    Cos working for a living on low pay is a bloody mug's game.
    Only societal pressure is keeping so many going.
    All my TA's would quit if there was no stigma.
    They wouldn't be worse off.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,348
    edited March 2023
    Reed said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    If there is a new financial crisis those minted elderly homeowners could soon turn against the tories.
    I expect tactical voting or the lack of it to determine the next election. In recent years even when the Tories and Labour have been equal on around 38-40% each, the anti-Tory
    vote has been in the low to mid 50s%. And unlike in 2019 and 2015 when the others were as much anti Labour as anti Tory, this time of you’re not voting conservative you’re voting to kick them out.

    Tactical voting = Labour maj and decent LD seat gains. No tactical voting = both parties underperforming again.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,453
    edited March 2023
    As stranger from an even stranger land, my take on the UK 2023 Budget, is that whatever its merits & demerits, winners & losers in policy terms, politically it is a small success for Rishi & Retinue.

    Why? Because (unlike the illegal immigration bill) it lacks any real drama, unless you are an economist or an accountant. No soaring rhetoric, no bold bullet points. Just a lot of (as someone just said EL CAPITANO) meh.

    Opposition can thrust and party, stab and slash . . . a Big Blog of True Blue jello . . .

    With special, subliminal appeal to the the BJ nostalgia crowd?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,340
    "Luke Pollard MP
    @LukePollard

    Overnight Plymouth’s Conservative council chopped down nearly 100 trees in the city centre. It’s a scene of environmental devastation and utter council vandalism. I’m appalled at the actions of the Tory Council. Sad day for our city. #plymouth #ArmadaWay"

    https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1635902400169926656
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,016
    dixiedean said:

    Reed said:

    Fraser Nelson ranting about the massive rise in numbers of people claiming sickness benefits in the telegraph.
    An excerpt.

    At first, it looked like a strange post-Covid blip: the number signed off sick from work was surging, with no proper reason. It might have been delayed effects from furlough, but ministers decided to wait to let things settle. They never did. Now some 5,000 a day are claiming sickness benefits, twice the pre-Covid rate. This week, the Office for Budget Responsibility decided that the Government has lost control. It expects this slide to continue until 12 per cent of the country are on some form of sickness benefit.

    This is a swift and staggering change (it was not even 8 per cent before the lockdowns) but horribly consistent with othe


    What does the good Doctor Fraser consider a "proper" reason?
    Folk are sick all right.
    Sick of the well off playing the system while they struggle. Having some of that is attractive.
    Cos working for a living on low pay is a bloody mug's game.
    Only societal pressure is keeping so many going.
    All my TA's would quit if there was no stigma.
    They wouldn't be worse off.
    As an AD I do not get sick pay. No play no pay. Does wonders for your attendance record.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    Geek alert.
    R4 with a report on Dutch local elections!!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,304

    DavidL said:

    Today's apparent deal with the health unions, if it sticks, will probably do the Tories more good than the budget. They really need to wind down the public sector strikes.

    They really need to pay out to the teachers now. I was WFH today looking after the children as their schools were shut. And then today of all days Virgin broadband went down for the whole street until 5pm. Two days' worth off work to get through tomorrow...
    I've been affected by the teachers' strikes too.
    Now, my starting point is that teaching should be a high value profession, and that we need to be recruiting more high quality people into teaching (apart from English Literature, obviously). I'm happy to see the state pay for this.
    But my emotional reaction to strikes is that I don't want to see the strikers win. Partly this is a don't-pay-out-to-hostage-takers-it-only-encourages-them-and-you-lose-out-in-the-long-run reaction. But mostly its an adversarial thing: when teachers strike, it feels personal, and it makes me as a consumer an adversary of them. Particularly when you see the circus of knobheads parading through London. Worrying that some of them are let anywhere near educating children.
    Strikes in the private sector are fine. I can take a happily neutral reaction to people withoding their labour. But it's hard not to feel public sector strikers are taking on me personally. So once the battle has become adversarial it's hard to muster any enthusiasm for them winning.
    Intellectually, I can see why they're doing it. And there are teachers I respect who are on strike (though I'd respect them more if they weren't). But my point is, emotionally, I blame strikes on the strikers, and the government will get no credit from me for capitulating.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,304
    dixiedean said:

    Geek alert.
    R4 with a report on Dutch local elections!!

    Ooh, thanks.
    We've not really discussed the Dutch local elections, but they sound something seismic, no? Equivalent to, I don't know, the Ratepayers' Party suddenly topping the polls.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,067
    edited March 2023
    dixiedean said:

    Was at work today. Despite the school being on strike and closed.
    Spent the day applying for my own job. The one I've been doing for over six months.
    Was repeatedly assured if I don't get it, it won't matter cos I've got the job as long as I want it anyways.
    Education is weird.

    If they appoint someone else to do it, how come you've got it for as long as you want it? The two are mutually exclusive, surely?

    Sounds to me more like your SLT are weird.

    Not that that's unusual.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    Note that Trump now odds on to be republican nominee. Quite a turnaround from a few weeks ago. With his opponent likely an elderly Biden it could be President Trump the resurrection.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,304
    TimS said:

    pigeon said:

    It’s a meh budget from a meh chancellor.

    But then, Starmer is King Meh and he’s 20 points ahead in the polls, so maybe this is the way things are now. Crap politicians offering incrementalism as the country slowly stagnates, Japan-style.

    A programme of managed decline, in which the remaining wealth in the economy continues to be redistributed from working people to the retired. It's what the Conservatives are for, but will Labour do anything very different? I'm not convinced.

    Look to the Labour manifesto at the next election, specifically these two questions: are they committed to the triple lock? And are they going to sideline the nimbies and take decisive action to get huge numbers of houses built? If the answer to the first question is "yes" and the second "no", then Starmer will be continuity Sunak and anything else he proposes will constitute so much reshuffling of deckchairs.
    There certainly is a danger that we go from the ridiculous to the soporific. In 2019 voters were faced with a choice between a mendacious charlatan single-handedly trashing the institutions of state, and an overgrown student-Union Kremlin apologist who hated the country he wanted to lead. So they opted for the charlatan.

    Now those same voters are faced with a rather less distressing but still uninspiring choice. But this time I think they’ll plump for Starmer.
    I don't think that's necessarily a reflection of the relative charms of Rishi and Kier - just a "time for a change" vibe when the change is perceived as being relatively safe.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,016
    Oh Arsenal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546
    DavidL said:

    Interesting. The child care and energy give aways really don't seem to have cut through as Hunt would have hoped.

    Do positive things ever really cut through?
    Reed said:

    Note that Trump now odds on to be republican nominee. Quite a turnaround from a few weeks ago. With his opponent likely an elderly Biden it could be President Trump the resurrection.

    Is it that much of a turn around? It's seemed hard for anyone to stop him all along, even if odds did not agree.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reed said:

    Fraser Nelson ranting about the massive rise in numbers of people claiming sickness benefits in the telegraph.
    An excerpt.

    At first, it looked like a strange post-Covid blip: the number signed off sick from work was surging, with no proper reason. It might have been delayed effects from furlough, but ministers decided to wait to let things settle. They never did. Now some 5,000 a day are claiming sickness benefits, twice the pre-Covid rate. This week, the Office for Budget Responsibility decided that the Government has lost control. It expects this slide to continue until 12 per cent of the country are on some form of sickness benefit.

    This is a swift and staggering change (it was not even 8 per cent before the lockdowns) but horribly consistent with othe


    What does the good Doctor Fraser consider a "proper" reason?
    Folk are sick all right.
    Sick of the well off playing the system while they struggle. Having some of that is attractive.
    Cos working for a living on low pay is a bloody mug's game.
    Only societal pressure is keeping so many going.
    All my TA's would quit if there was no stigma.
    They wouldn't be worse off.
    As an AD I do not get sick pay. No play no pay. Does wonders for your attendance record.
    Yes with the price of property now working a low wage job for many seems pointless.
  • pingping Posts: 3,731
    “Globalisation is over, and it'll cost you, according to TSMC founder”

    https://www.theregister.com/2023/03/16/globalization_morris_chang_tsmc/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    If Trump did get a 2nd term would it be any different or just more chaos with daily provocative tweets.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,198
    Reed said:

    Note that Trump now odds on to be republican nominee. Quite a turnaround from a few weeks ago. With his opponent likely an elderly Biden it could be President Trump the resurrection.

    Biden is too savvy to throw away the benefit of incumbency like Trump did.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546
    Might just be me, but something about the BBC report on the french pension reform issue seems weirdly off and un-BBC like. 'Obiviously' this, and talk of making France look unreformable. Reminds me of when they had an article mentioning 'gaffe prone Biden'.

    But whenever a government invokes the 49:3, it can be sure it will be accused straight away of riding roughshod over the will of the people.

    In fact, it has been used precisely 100 times in the more than 60 years of the Fifth Republic, and by governments of all shades.

    Obviously, it tends to be used more frequently by governments that do not have an in-built majority in parliament, such as the socialist Michel Rocard's in the 1980s and Élisabeth Borne's today.

    She has in fact already used it several times, but those occasions were for public finance bills which were less controversial.

    Use of the procedure is a way to bypass a vote which might be lost, but the down side for the government is that the opposition parties can immediately table a vote of no-confidence.

    If these are voted through, the government falls. That is a theoretical possibility now, but unlikely, because it would mean the far-right, the left and much of the conservative opposition all coming together.

    The dispute once again makes France look unreformable. By comparison with other countries in Europe, the change to the pension age is far from dramatic.


    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64984374
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,888
    DavidL said:

    Interesting. The child care and energy give aways really don't seem to have cut through as Hunt would have hoped.

    Were they meant to? Taking him at face value, I understood that Hunt's intention with this budget was to get more people into work rather than necessarily making people feel immediately better off. I don't know if the measures he has announced will actually do that but to say that the measures haven't 'cut through' when that was never the immediate intention (again taking Hunt at his word which is of course a risky thing to do) seems to be a misreading of the plan.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,303
    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Geek alert.
    R4 with a report on Dutch local elections!!

    Ooh, thanks.
    We've not really discussed the Dutch local elections, but they sound something seismic, no? Equivalent to, I don't know, the Ratepayers' Party suddenly topping the polls.
    Yes and no. At the last regional elections, the far-right Forum for Democracy party won. This time they took a pro-Russian stance and were nearly wiped out (12 seats down to 2), and the farmers' party BBB gained all of that and a bit more (0 to 15), claiming that a globalist conspiracy was trying to rob farmers of their land. So to some extent it's nutters beating nutters. But the centrists in government, who only had a plurtality, lost ground too, while the left gained marginally.

    https://nltimes.nl/2023/03/15/exit-poll-shows-dutch-coalition-will-lose-8-seats-senate-bbb-becomes-biggest-party

    The Dutch government has been pressing for a reduction in the number of animal farms in order to reduce emissions and get space to build more homes. Essentially they will now need to work with either the left (who like that policy but dislike an anti-refugee policy) or the right (the opposite), even more than before.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,304
    Roger said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
    The thing is, though, while from my perspective the last seven years of government have been nothing to celebrate, it feels like everything the government have got right Labour have vociferously opposed, and everything they have got wrong Labour have supported.

    I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,016
    Tres said:

    Reed said:

    Note that Trump now odds on to be republican nominee. Quite a turnaround from a few weeks ago. With his opponent likely an elderly Biden it could be President Trump the resurrection.

    Biden is too savvy to throw away the benefit of incumbency like Trump did.
    Yes, his decision on the exploitation of oil in Alaska showed he knows when to drop these principles things and focus on winning.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,437
    Reed said:

    If Trump did get a 2nd term would it be any different or just more chaos with daily provocative tweets.

    Substantially worse. All of the malice and vendetta, but with less comedy value. An end to aid to Ukraine too via the burger eating surrender monkey.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
    The thing is, though, while from my perspective the last seven years of government have been nothing to celebrate, it feels like everything the government have got right Labour have vociferously opposed, and everything they have got wrong Labour have supported.

    I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
    Have you ever voted other than Tory?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546
    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    Pre Boris and Truss implosion it was something they could easily do. It should be relatively easy to scrape 250 seats. It looks far from easy at the moment.

    I'd dispute the idea mid term polls are meaningless. They are not of sole relevance, but that is not the same as them being entirely irrelevant. Performing well above or well below where those who have won the next election have been would be at least a partial indicator, if bearing in mind what if anything looks like it could change things.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,304

    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Geek alert.
    R4 with a report on Dutch local elections!!

    Ooh, thanks.
    We've not really discussed the Dutch local elections, but they sound something seismic, no? Equivalent to, I don't know, the Ratepayers' Party suddenly topping the polls.
    Yes and no. At the last regional elections, the far-right Forum for Democracy party won. This time they took a pro-Russian stance and were nearly wiped out (12 seats down to 2), and the farmers' party BBB gained all of that and a bit more (0 to 15), claiming that a globalist conspiracy was trying to rob farmers of their land. So to some extent it's nutters beating nutters. But the centrists in government, who only had a plurtality, lost ground too, while the left gained marginally.

    https://nltimes.nl/2023/03/15/exit-poll-shows-dutch-coalition-will-lose-8-seats-senate-bbb-becomes-biggest-party

    The Dutch government has been pressing for a reduction in the number of animal farms in order to reduce emissions and get space to build more homes. Essentially they will now need to work with either the left (who like that policy but dislike an anti-refugee policy) or the right (the opposite), even more than before.
    Thanks Nick, that's interesting.
    I'm slightly surprised I didn't know the far right had won last time. That also sounds seismic.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    dixiedean said:

    Reed said:

    Fraser Nelson ranting about the massive rise in numbers of people claiming sickness benefits in the telegraph.
    An excerpt.

    At first, it looked like a strange post-Covid blip: the number signed off sick from work was surging, with no proper reason. It might have been delayed effects from furlough, but ministers decided to wait to let things settle. They never did. Now some 5,000 a day are claiming sickness benefits, twice the pre-Covid rate. This week, the Office for Budget Responsibility decided that the Government has lost control. It expects this slide to continue until 12 per cent of the country are on some form of sickness benefit.

    This is a swift and staggering change (it was not even 8 per cent before the lockdowns) but horribly consistent with othe


    What does the good Doctor Fraser consider a "proper" reason?
    Folk are sick all right.
    Sick of the well off playing the system while they struggle. Having some of that is attractive.
    Cos working for a living on low pay is a bloody mug's game.
    Only societal pressure is keeping so many going.
    All my TA's would quit if there was no stigma.
    They wouldn't be worse off.
    Trying to live on ESA or UC is really not great. Sure no work pressures but... £77 per week?

    UC is £159 pw if you can prove you are too ill to look for work or do any work preparation, but that is inevitiably going to need medical evidence.

    £159 pw = c.£690 pm. You're hardly going to be having a wonderful life. Few choose to go down that route unless they genuinely have to imo.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546
    Reed said:

    If Trump did get a 2nd term would it be any different or just more chaos with daily provocative tweets.

    Worse. All the GOP are in deep now, fully on board with believing he was robbed of the last election - imagine what they would do to 'fix' the system with the power of the president fully behind them. Could the states and courts stop that? Do enough want to?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
    The thing is, though, while from my perspective the last seven years of government have been nothing to celebrate, it feels like everything the government have got right Labour have vociferously opposed, and everything they have got wrong Labour have supported.

    I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
    I will confess to being in the neverTory camp. They make it quite easy tbh.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Was at work today. Despite the school being on strike and closed.
    Spent the day applying for my own job. The one I've been doing for over six months.
    Was repeatedly assured if I don't get it, it won't matter cos I've got the job as long as I want it anyways.
    Education is weird.

    If they appoint someone else to do it, how come you've got it for as long as you want it? The two are mutually exclusive, surely?

    Sounds to me more like your SLT are weird.

    Not that that's unusual.
    They are taking on 4 generic full time staff on the payroll.
    They haven't specified which subjects or year groups.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,169
    DavidL said:

    Oh Arsenal.

    It allows them to concentrate on the league now? I still don't think they will win the league though, but rather them than Man City.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,463
    Off topic, but I think many of you will find this arrest of interest:
    "Guo Wengui, a Chinese businessman with ties to former Trump White House adviser Stephen K. Bannon, was arrested Wednesday as federal prosecutors unsealed an indictment alleging that he defrauded his online followers out of more than $1 billion.

    Prosecutors allege that Guo — formally charged as Ho Wan Kwok and known as “Miles Guo” — spent some of the money on a lavish lifestyle that included a mansion, sports cars and a luxury yacht."
    source$:https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/15/guo-wengui-arrested-fraud-charges/

    As most of you probably recall, Bannon was pardoned by Trump for a somewhat similar, but smaller scale, scam.

    (I believe the feds have already seized much of Gu Wengui's fortune.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    Reed said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reed said:

    Fraser Nelson ranting about the massive rise in numbers of people claiming sickness benefits in the telegraph.
    An excerpt.

    At first, it looked like a strange post-Covid blip: the number signed off sick from work was surging, with no proper reason. It might have been delayed effects from furlough, but ministers decided to wait to let things settle. They never did. Now some 5,000 a day are claiming sickness benefits, twice the pre-Covid rate. This week, the Office for Budget Responsibility decided that the Government has lost control. It expects this slide to continue until 12 per cent of the country are on some form of sickness benefit.

    This is a swift and staggering change (it was not even 8 per cent before the lockdowns) but horribly consistent with othe


    What does the good Doctor Fraser consider a "proper" reason?
    Folk are sick all right.
    Sick of the well off playing the system while they struggle. Having some of that is attractive.
    Cos working for a living on low pay is a bloody mug's game.
    Only societal pressure is keeping so many going.
    All my TA's would quit if there was no stigma.
    They wouldn't be worse off.
    As an AD I do not get sick pay. No play no pay. Does wonders for your attendance record.
    Yes with the price of property now working a low wage job for many seems pointless.
    Until you consider the alternative.

    (Don't get me wrong, I deplore the low wages paid for these vital jobs. But not working is not a great option either.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,016

    DavidL said:

    Interesting. The child care and energy give aways really don't seem to have cut through as Hunt would have hoped.

    Were they meant to? Taking him at face value, I understood that Hunt's intention with this budget was to get more people into work rather than necessarily making people feel immediately better off. I don't know if the measures he has announced will actually do that but to say that the measures haven't 'cut through' when that was never the immediate intention (again taking Hunt at his word which is of course a risky thing to do) seems to be a misreading of the plan.
    The child care in particular is supposed to help people back into work and it is being combined with an even more aggressive sanctions policy on benefits in a carrot and stick approach. But the timescale for its introduction probably means the next Labour government get the benefit.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,304
    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
    The thing is, though, while from my perspective the last seven years of government have been nothing to celebrate, it feels like everything the government have got right Labour have vociferously opposed, and everything they have got wrong Labour have supported.

    I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
    Have you ever voted other than Tory?
    Yes, though never Labour.

    The thing is, Roger, if you're (with apologies if I'm misrepresenting you) a middle class internationalist with fashionable Guardianist opinions, you almost always have a choice. If you're tastes are more small state and/or you think the Guardian a bit daft, you have a choice of a Conservative Party or some seldom savoury rag tag and bobtails. So the Conservatives do rather hoover up the votes of people who are not necessarily enthusiastic about them but aren't utterly hostile to them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Was at work today. Despite the school being on strike and closed.
    Spent the day applying for my own job. The one I've been doing for over six months.
    Was repeatedly assured if I don't get it, it won't matter cos I've got the job as long as I want it anyways.
    Education is weird.

    If they appoint someone else to do it, how come you've got it for as long as you want it? The two are mutually exclusive, surely?

    Sounds to me more like your SLT are weird.

    Not that that's unusual.
    They are taking on 4 generic full time staff on the payroll.
    They haven't specified which subjects or year groups.
    So. AIUI. They only have the budget to appoint 4 supply to permanent posts. So all the supply will be competing to fill the roles they already do. So no one else will be appointed to my role as they don't do it. I've been actively encouraged to apply.
    Yes. Our SLT are bizarre.
    Indeed
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097
    Reed said:

    Note that Trump now odds on to be republican nominee. Quite a turnaround from a few weeks ago. With his opponent likely an elderly Biden it could be President Trump the resurrection.

    Dozens of Mar-a-Lago staff, from servers to aides, are subpoenaed in classified documents probe
    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/16/politics/mar-a-lago-trump-subpoenas/index.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    edited March 2023
    Reed said:

    Note that Trump now odds on to be republican nominee. Quite a turnaround from a few weeks ago. With his opponent likely an elderly Biden it could be President Trump the resurrection.

    Biden leads Trump 49% to 45% with Quinnipiac this week.

    Biden however leads DeSantis only 47% to 46%

    https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1636092750285217794?s=20
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,304

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
    The thing is, though, while from my perspective the last seven years of government have been nothing to celebrate, it feels like everything the government have got right Labour have vociferously opposed, and everything they have got wrong Labour have supported.

    I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
    I will confess to being in the neverTory camp. They make it quite easy tbh.
    This is the tragedy of FPTP. It games us to be more motivated by keeping those we dislike out than electing those we do like. (And in case Eagles is around, my view is that AV is even worse for this.)
    STV is the way forward!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    edited March 2023

    dixiedean said:

    Reed said:

    Fraser Nelson ranting about the massive rise in numbers of people claiming sickness benefits in the telegraph.
    An excerpt.

    At first, it looked like a strange post-Covid blip: the number signed off sick from work was surging, with no proper reason. It might have been delayed effects from furlough, but ministers decided to wait to let things settle. They never did. Now some 5,000 a day are claiming sickness benefits, twice the pre-Covid rate. This week, the Office for Budget Responsibility decided that the Government has lost control. It expects this slide to continue until 12 per cent of the country are on some form of sickness benefit.

    This is a swift and staggering change (it was not even 8 per cent before the lockdowns) but horribly consistent with othe


    What does the good Doctor Fraser consider a "proper" reason?
    Folk are sick all right.
    Sick of the well off playing the system while they struggle. Having some of that is attractive.
    Cos working for a living on low pay is a bloody mug's game.
    Only societal pressure is keeping so many going.
    All my TA's would quit if there was no stigma.
    They wouldn't be worse off.
    Trying to live on ESA or UC is really not great. Sure no work pressures but... £77 per week?

    UC is £159 pw if you can prove you are too ill to look for work or do any work preparation, but that is inevitiably going to need medical evidence.

    £159 pw = c.£690 pm. You're hardly going to be having a wonderful life. Few choose to go down that route unless they genuinely have to imo.
    Yes but. Council tax. Dentists. Prescriptions.. Transport.
    The marginal benefits for getting up at 6:30 at being physically assaulted and sworn at ?
    No sick pay when you're concussed. And can't defend yourself.
    Would you do it?
  • DavidL said:

    Oh Arsenal.

    It allows them to concentrate on the league now? I still don't think they will win the league though, but rather them than Man City.
    You have to admire Sporting's amazing equaliser
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546
    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Note that Trump now odds on to be republican nominee. Quite a turnaround from a few weeks ago. With his opponent likely an elderly Biden it could be President Trump the resurrection.

    Dozens of Mar-a-Lago staff, from servers to aides, are subpoenaed in classified documents probe
    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/16/politics/mar-a-lago-trump-subpoenas/index.html
    Biden (and many others, including Pence, it seems) appears to have been careless with holding onto and storing records, though cooperative once it comes to light.

    Trump appears, for no apparent reason, to have deliberately been evasive and obstructive about what he holds for a long time, and not returning a very large amount of confidential things, seemingly out of a belief that he can hold onto whatever he wants just because.

    Yet I bet the two are declared the same.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,242

    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Geek alert.
    R4 with a report on Dutch local elections!!

    Ooh, thanks.
    We've not really discussed the Dutch local elections, but they sound something seismic, no? Equivalent to, I don't know, the Ratepayers' Party suddenly topping the polls.
    Yes and no. At the last regional elections, the far-right Forum for Democracy party won. This time they took a pro-Russian stance and were nearly wiped out (12 seats down to 2), and the farmers' party BBB gained all of that and a bit more (0 to 15), claiming that a globalist conspiracy was trying to rob farmers of their land. So to some extent it's nutters beating nutters. But the centrists in government, who only had a plurtality, lost ground too, while the left gained marginally.

    https://nltimes.nl/2023/03/15/exit-poll-shows-dutch-coalition-will-lose-8-seats-senate-bbb-becomes-biggest-party

    The Dutch government has been pressing for a reduction in the number of animal farms in order to reduce emissions and get space to build more homes. Essentially they will now need to work with either the left (who like that policy but dislike an anti-refugee policy) or the right (the opposite), even more than before.
    It is becoming a little gamey calling them 'nutters' for alleging a 'globalist conspiracy' to attack the food supply when we've got exactly the same attempts to reduce food production in the UK (rewilding, solar farms, DEFRA pay offs for farmers to leave the industry) as well as them being European Union policy. The nutters are the ones doing it, not the ones trying to stop it.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Today's apparent deal with the health unions, if it sticks, will probably do the Tories more good than the budget. They really need to wind down the public sector strikes.

    I suspect that when the nurses discover the consequences of the deal they won’t be happy. It’s something like a 8% hidden paycut with a one off payment that hides it
    It wouldn't surprise me if it were rejected. It is a poor offer.
    In that case, why are all but one of the unions recommending it to their members?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
    The thing is, though, while from my perspective the last seven years of government have been nothing to celebrate, it feels like everything the government have got right Labour have vociferously opposed, and everything they have got wrong Labour have supported.

    I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
    I will confess to being in the neverTory camp. They make it quite easy tbh.
    This is the tragedy of FPTP. It games us to be more motivated by keeping those we dislike out than electing those we do like. (And in case Eagles is around, my view is that AV is even worse for this.)
    STV is the way forward!
    The tragedy of FPTP sounds like a really boring documentary or a really good book about electoral reform.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097
    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
    The thing is, though, while from my perspective the last seven years of government have been nothing to celebrate, it feels like everything the government have got right Labour have vociferously opposed, and everything they have got wrong Labour have supported.

    I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
    I will confess to being in the neverTory camp. They make it quite easy tbh.
    This is the tragedy of FPTP. It games us to be more motivated by keeping those we dislike out than electing those we do like. (And in case Eagles is around, my view is that AV is even worse for this.)
    STV is the way forward!
    The tragedy of FPTP sounds like a really boring documentary or a really good book about electoral reform.
    Well it's not a TSE header title, as there's no terrible pun in it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097
    How many last chances is that now ?

    Met police on ‘last chance’ as Casey report to condemn failure to change
    Exclusive: findings of official review due out on Tuesday described as ‘horrible’ and ‘atrocious’ for force
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/16/met-police-on-last-chance-as-casey-report-to-condemn-failure-to-change
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,299
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
    The thing is, though, while from my perspective the last seven years of government have been nothing to celebrate, it feels like everything the government have got right Labour have vociferously opposed, and everything they have got wrong Labour have supported.

    I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
    I will confess to being in the neverTory camp. They make it quite easy tbh.
    This is the tragedy of FPTP. It games us to be more motivated by keeping those we dislike out than electing those we do like. (And in case Eagles is around, my view is that AV is even worse for this.)
    STV is the way forward!
    It seems a fairly safe bet that 2024 will see the parties of the centre-left fairly well united in disliking the Conservatives more than they dislike each other. With a partial exception in 2017 (anti-Brexit Popular Front), that hasn't happened for quite a while- maybe not since 2001.

    That ought to worry the Conservatives a lot.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,928
    LD hold in South Cambridgeshire but Lab intervention cuts their majority.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,928
    slade said:

    LD hold in South Cambridgeshire but Lab intervention cuts their majority.

    Stirling counting tomorrow.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,928
    slade said:

    LD hold in South Cambridgeshire but Lab intervention cuts their majority.

    It looks like the active Lab campaign also drove up the Con vote.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,299

    I saw on the last thread that people were commenting the Canadians had a beach to themselves.

    Are we sure the Germans didn’t get there first?

    They did- about four years earlier.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
    The thing is, though, while from my perspective the last seven years of government have been nothing to celebrate, it feels like everything the government have got right Labour have vociferously opposed, and everything they have got wrong Labour have supported.

    I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
    Have you ever voted other than Tory?
    Yes, though never Labour.

    The thing is, Roger, if you're (with apologies if I'm misrepresenting you) a middle class internationalist with fashionable Guardianist opinions, you almost always have a choice. If you're tastes are more small state and/or you think the Guardian a bit daft, you have a choice of a Conservative Party or some seldom savoury rag tag and bobtails. So the Conservatives do rather hoover up the votes of people who are not necessarily enthusiastic about them but aren't utterly hostile to them.
    That's true but we all have a bottom line. I sometimes think I might be financially a little better off with a Tory government but there are a few lines I can't cross. Treatment and language used towards refugees is topical and one of them. I can't envisage ever voting for a party that could find Patel or Braverman acceptable. Anything that seems cruel and vindictive from a politician would rule them out. I'd prefer incompetence any day of the week. Corbyn was patently hopeless but I could never imagine him sending vans to immigrant areas saying "Go Home"
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,890

    I saw on the last thread that people were commenting the Canadians had a beach to themselves.

    Are we sure the Germans didn’t get there first?

    They did- about four years earlier.
    If you explain a joke…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097
    Korea sets up hotline with Germany, France, Netherlands for immigrations policies
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=347271
    Introducing a new central government agency dedicated to Korea's immigration policies is apparently gaining momentum after Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon returned from Europe where he studied the migrant policies of advanced countries.

    Han met with key immigration policymakers in France, Germany and the Netherlands during his trip from March 7 to Wednesday...

    ..."Minister Zegerius, in particular, candidly told me how she had arrived in the Netherlands as a first-generation immigrant when she was a child and grew up to become the country's top immigration policymaker," said Han. "It was a really meaningful meeting for me."

    The foreign leaders asked Han why Korea wishes to introduce a new immigration policy control tower that's similar to their own, according to the Korean minister. Han answered, "There is no country on earth with a perfect set of immigration policies. Neither would there be a country without systematic immigration policies that will ever successfully run its own affairs."

    The countries that saw Han's latest visit all have low birthrate and aging society problems, which Korea is now experiencing. A part of the countries' solutions was embracing immigrants through inclusive governance...
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,430

    dixiedean said:

    Reed said:

    Fraser Nelson ranting about the massive rise in numbers of people claiming sickness benefits in the telegraph.
    An excerpt.

    At first, it looked like a strange post-Covid blip: the number signed off sick from work was surging, with no proper reason. It might have been delayed effects from furlough, but ministers decided to wait to let things settle. They never did. Now some 5,000 a day are claiming sickness benefits, twice the pre-Covid rate. This week, the Office for Budget Responsibility decided that the Government has lost control. It expects this slide to continue until 12 per cent of the country are on some form of sickness benefit.

    This is a swift and staggering change (it was not even 8 per cent before the lockdowns) but horribly consistent with othe


    What does the good Doctor Fraser consider a "proper" reason?
    Folk are sick all right.
    Sick of the well off playing the system while they struggle. Having some of that is attractive.
    Cos working for a living on low pay is a bloody mug's game.
    Only societal pressure is keeping so many going.
    All my TA's would quit if there was no stigma.
    They wouldn't be worse off.
    Trying to live on ESA or UC is really not great. Sure no work pressures but... £77 per week?

    UC is £159 pw if you can prove you are too ill to look for work or do any work preparation, but that is inevitiably going to need medical evidence.

    £159 pw = c.£690 pm. You're hardly going to be having a wonderful life. Few choose to go down that route unless they genuinely have to imo.
    I know people on 32 hours a week ~£11 hour, so £352 a week. Even full time only £418 a week.
    Of course tax credits help but..

    That £159 is tempting when you understand how truly shit the retail sector is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    edited March 2023
    Yousaf asked a group of Ukrainian women today 'where are all the men?'

    Turns out they were fighting still in Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/1636385968570908679?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546
    edited March 2023
    slade said:

    slade said:

    LD hold in South Cambridgeshire but Lab intervention cuts their majority.

    Stirling counting tomorrow.
    That should be the real priority for government in election reform - forcing everyone to count overnight.

    Yes yes, it's not really necessary, or useful, and it annoys candidates, workers and volunteers alike, but there's just something...right about those standing for election finding out their results between 11pm and 5am, bleary eyed after a day of pounding the streets.

    Think of the poor political nerds who either have no reason to stay up overnight to follow election results, or are denied being able to wake up and see the state of play.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    slade said:

    LD hold in South Cambridgeshire but Lab intervention cuts their majority.

    Good news for Conservative candidates in May whose main opponent is the LDs.

    Bad news though for Conservative candidates whose main opponent is Labour
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,103

    I saw on the last thread that people were commenting the Canadians had a beach to themselves.

    Are we sure the Germans didn’t get there first?

    The photographic evidence is clear. No towels on the sun loungers.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,058
    The authorities really need to make a law that at least 4 out of 11 players on the pitch for any English club should be English.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/mar/16/gareth-southgate-fears-successor-will-face-shortage-of-english-players
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,883
    WillG said:

    The authorities really need to make a law that at least 4 out of 11 players on the pitch for any English club should be English.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/mar/16/gareth-southgate-fears-successor-will-face-shortage-of-english-players

    It's not clear to me that restricting the quality of the competition for English* players would make them better. In my life, I've found the better the quality of those I am with, the better the standard of my work.

    * And, by the way, I assume you mean British Citizens, otherwise you are suggesting that there are internal restrictions in the UK on who may work where
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,954
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Yousaf asked a group of Ukrainian women today 'where are all the men?'

    Turns out they were fighting still in Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/1636385968570908679?s=20

    It's a 5,000 EUR bribe to leave Ukraine if you're a man aged 18-60 so that's were the vast majority of them are and are staying.

    To be posted anywhere but Bakhmut once the AFU have dragooned you is 1,000 EUR which seems like value for money although there is massive premium for Lviv on top of that.

    (Source: UK Ukrainian Diaspora Telegram channels)
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,157
    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
    The thing is, though, while from my perspective the last seven years of government have been nothing to celebrate, it feels like everything the government have got right Labour have vociferously opposed, and everything they have got wrong Labour have supported.

    I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
    Have you ever voted other than Tory?
    Yes, though never Labour.

    The thing is, Roger, if you're (with apologies if I'm misrepresenting you) a middle class internationalist with fashionable Guardianist opinions, you almost always have a choice. If you're tastes are more small state and/or you think the Guardian a bit daft, you have a choice of a Conservative Party or some seldom savoury rag tag and bobtails. So the Conservatives do rather hoover up the votes of people who are not necessarily enthusiastic about them but aren't utterly hostile to them.
    That's true but we all have a bottom line. I sometimes think I might be financially a little better off with a Tory government but there are a few lines I can't cross. Treatment and language used towards refugees is topical and one of them. I can't envisage ever voting for a party that could find Patel or Braverman acceptable. Anything that seems cruel and vindictive from a politician would rule them out. I'd prefer incompetence any day of the week. Corbyn was patently hopeless but I could never imagine him sending vans to immigrant areas saying "Go Home"
    I can imagine Prime Minister Corbyn equivocating over Ukraine. Nastier than anything the tories could come up with.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,214
    Another poll, another Labour landslide.

    The polls aren't shifting because the public have made up their minds.

    p.s. good morning from Asia!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,805
    edited March 2023
    kle4 said:

    slade said:

    slade said:

    LD hold in South Cambridgeshire but Lab intervention cuts their majority.

    Stirling counting tomorrow.
    That should be the real priority for government in election reform - forcing everyone to count overnight.

    Yes yes, it's not really necessary, or useful, and it annoys candidates, workers and volunteers alike, but there's just something...right about those standing for election finding out their results between 11pm and 5am, bleary eyed after a day of pounding the streets.

    Think of the poor political nerds who either have no reason to stay up overnight to follow election results, or are denied being able to wake up and see the state of play.
    Agreed. Day counting is rubbish.

    The London mayor count is embarrassingly slow, for example.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546
    edited March 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
    The thing is, though, while from my perspective the last seven years of government have been nothing to celebrate, it feels like everything the government have got right Labour have vociferously opposed, and everything they have got wrong Labour have supported.

    I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
    Have you ever voted other than Tory?
    Yes, though never Labour.

    The thing is, Roger, if you're (with apologies if I'm misrepresenting you) a middle class internationalist with fashionable Guardianist opinions, you almost always have a choice. If you're tastes are more small state and/or you think the Guardian a bit daft, you have a choice of a Conservative Party or some seldom savoury rag tag and bobtails. So the Conservatives do rather hoover up the votes of people who are not necessarily enthusiastic about them but aren't utterly hostile to them.
    That's true but we all have a bottom line. I sometimes think I might be financially a little better off with a Tory government but there are a few lines I can't cross. Treatment and language used towards refugees is topical and one of them. I can't envisage ever voting for a party that could find Patel or Braverman acceptable. Anything that seems cruel and vindictive from a politician would rule them out. I'd prefer incompetence any day of the week. Corbyn was patently hopeless but I could never imagine him sending vans to immigrant areas saying "Go Home"
    I can imagine Prime Minister Corbyn equivocating over Ukraine. Nastier than anything the tories could come up with.
    I don't think he'd equivocate at all: he'd be in favour of peace. And that peace would be achieved by Ukraine surrendering.
    It's not as though ego is an uncommon trait amongst politicians, but I do like how the url of his 'Peace and Justice Project' is thecorbynproject.

    Apparently there is no glory to war according to it, which I guess means you're not supposed to fight back if attacked or assist the downtrodden or anything like that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    Heathener said:

    Another poll, another Labour landslide.

    The polls aren't shifting because the public have made up their minds.

    p.s. good morning from Asia!

    The main movement in the latest poll is Labour to RefUK
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,948
    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform surge.

    "Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 46% (-4)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)
    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 15 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Mar."

    Lab on 425 seats or so on that.
    Electoral calculus makes it 479-94 with no tactical effects.

    And OK, that's not going to happen (is it?).

    But the nearest comparable polls in '92-'97 were the ICM/Guardian series. Gold standard, Spiral of Silence, all that jazz.

    Their polls in 1995 were all in the range Conservative 29 +/- 3
    Labour 50 +/- 3
    Lib Dem 20 +/- 3

    We all know history doesn't repeat and Starmer isn't Blair. And there's still only a bit less than 2 years to go.

    But Conservatives need something to change the narrative. What?
    Many more Conservatives will rally round as the election approaches to close the gap.
    Yes, with Boris out and Truss booted there's a lot of people who will just amble back to the party over the next 12-18 months.
    Yep. If the Tories can consolidate their voter base - largely minted elderly homeowners and their heirs, but also the cohort of "Never Labour" social conservatives - then they're right back in the game.

    These mid-term polls are all meaningless. Masses of right-leaning voters + boundary change + SNP strength in Scotland + uninspiring Opposition = Hung Parliament. Sunak's Tories could very easily salvage over 250 seats.
    And if everyone could have a seven year amnesia they could be in with a chance
    The thing is, though, while from my perspective the last seven years of government have been nothing to celebrate, it feels like everything the government have got right Labour have vociferously opposed, and everything they have got wrong Labour have supported.

    I'd like to think I'm not in the neverLabour camp. But Jesus they make it difficult.
    Have you ever voted other than Tory?
    Yes, though never Labour.

    The thing is, Roger, if you're (with apologies if I'm misrepresenting you) a middle class internationalist with fashionable Guardianist opinions, you almost always have a choice. If you're tastes are more small state and/or you think the Guardian a bit daft, you have a choice of a Conservative Party or some seldom savoury rag tag and bobtails. So the Conservatives do rather hoover up the votes of people who are not necessarily enthusiastic about them but aren't utterly hostile to them.
    That's true but we all have a bottom line. I sometimes think I might be financially a little better off with a Tory government but there are a few lines I can't cross. Treatment and language used towards refugees is topical and one of them. I can't envisage ever voting for a party that could find Patel or Braverman acceptable. Anything that seems cruel and vindictive from a politician would rule them out. I'd prefer incompetence any day of the week. Corbyn was patently hopeless but I could never imagine him sending vans to immigrant areas saying "Go Home"
    I can imagine Prime Minister Corbyn equivocating over Ukraine. Nastier than anything the tories could come up with.
    I don't think he'd equivocate at all: he'd be in favour of peace. And that peace would be achieved by Ukraine surrendering.
    He'd convene a peace conference and invite all the leading anti-imperial powers like Venezuela, Cuba and Iran.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    Swing 16.5% Liberal Democrat to Conservative in South Cambridgeshire tonight

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1636525611391827968?s=20
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,805
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Another poll, another Labour landslide.

    The polls aren't shifting because the public have made up their minds.

    p.s. good morning from Asia!

    The main movement in the latest poll is Labour to RefUK
    Indeed, but more to the point it’s still midterm. These polls don’t mean much. Labour has the advantage but victory is by no means a gimme.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546
    edited March 2023
    I do like how even in these apocalyptic 'Nowcasts' the Tories don't actually lose all seats in Wales, or even Scotland, as per this one from a few days ago.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1635966584396054528/photo/1
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,805
    kle4 said:

    I do like how even in these apocalyptic 'Nowcasts' the Tories don't actually lose all seats in Wales, or even Scotland, as per this one from a few days ago.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1635966584396054528/photo/1

    Had no idea the Borders were so Tory. Weird.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546
    edited March 2023

    kle4 said:

    I do like how even in these apocalyptic 'Nowcasts' the Tories don't actually lose all seats in Wales, or even Scotland, as per this one from a few days ago.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1635966584396054528/photo/1

    Had no idea the Borders were so Tory. Weird.
    Given how volatile Scottish seats have been in the last 10 years, it does seem odd they could retain some there if overall doing so poorly (despite having none or 1 for quite some time when more popular), but if the SNP underperform, then with the LDs nowhere in seats they used to hold and Labour having dropped off in those seats in the post referendum years, then I guess they might cling on simply as no other real unionist option.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919

    kle4 said:

    I do like how even in these apocalyptic 'Nowcasts' the Tories don't actually lose all seats in Wales, or even Scotland, as per this one from a few days ago.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1635966584396054528/photo/1

    Had no idea the Borders were so Tory. Weird.
    The Borders and Aberdeenshire are posher than most of the North of England and ex industrial West Midlands, as is Monmouthshire for instance. So not that surprising
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,954

    kle4 said:

    I do like how even in these apocalyptic 'Nowcasts' the Tories don't actually lose all seats in Wales, or even Scotland, as per this one from a few days ago.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1635966584396054528/photo/1

    Had no idea the Borders were so Tory. Weird.
    Tremendously loyal…
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,883
    HYUFD said:

    Swing 16.5% Liberal Democrat to Conservative in South Cambridgeshire tonight

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1636525611391827968?s=20

    If that were replicated across the country at the next General Election, we would expect the liberal Democrats to lose 67 of their 14 MPs
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