Word up – politicalbetting.com
Word up – politicalbetting.com
New survey design experiments by YouGov's @PME_Politics demonstrate the the importance of question framing to properly measuring public opinionSee the results on leading questions and acquiescence bias in the next tweets ?https://t.co/pqOH8s4Z9J
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Betting PostF1: backed Albon to win group 2 (Tsunoda, Gasly, Magnussen) at 4.6, and Sainz to win group 3 (Russell, Hamilton, Stroll) at 3.1.
Albon would almost certainly have been above Tsunoda but for a technical problem that stopped him running in Q2 and looked competitive. Sainz starts ahead of the rest of his group and is often a little overlooked. Suspect the Ferrari will have the legs on the Mercedes in the race.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/03/bahrain-pre-race-2023.html
KPMG warns clients will not invest while 'UK not firing on all cylinders' under Jeremy Hunt
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/04/dozens-us-companies-shun-britain-high-taxes-no-growth-plan/ (£££)
Frankly, I hopes she never gets a gig again. Journalists have always been held in low esteem. Oakshott just drags the profession closer to.the gutter.
Or a popularity contest between her and Carole Cadwalladr for stupidest liar out there.
Why are commentators so intent on killing the messenger, instead of focusing on the substance of the message?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/04/journalists-condemning-isabel-oakeshott-job-didnt-do-properly/ (£££)
Street robberies went up 19 per cent in the year to February — with perpetrators on super fast bikes escaping with frightening ease.
...
Although most violent crime rates, including murders, have fallen in the capital, Met Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley says the rise in muggings is unacceptable. Robbery increased by 19 per cent in the year to February and a quarter of the offences involved a knife. Smartphones are the property most often stolen, followed by cash, purses and jewellery. A total of 9,261 phones have been snatched in the past 12 months, a 23 per cent increase.
https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/london-e-bike-crime-epidemic-b1064229.html
Some mistake surely?
I am not surprised Hancock is livid. It will make politicians more careful if nothing else.
There are not words I can use to describe what I think of Oakshott as I don't want to add to the Lent swear word charity donation box which is already at £6 however justified the use of the word might be
I've laid him some more for Next President, but he's got to currently be favourite for the nomination.
He will have to do so.
Paradoxically, DeSantis and Trump are about the same price for the presidency itself. Burlington Bertie: 100/30.
Mps were cheating the system financially.Oakeshott is betraying someone she was working for. I hope he can sue her for £££££££. I am not a supporter of Hancock but she needs as much opprobrium chucked over her as is possible.
If it's to favour investment over taking profits now, it's probably a higher rate of corp tax with more investment deductions.
If it's to encourage companies to funnel money through the UK, it's a lower rate, but that feels like the sort of dead end that's got us here. These days, it's too easy to pass money between countries without creating jobs.
If it's to win the next election, the best plan is probably to take as much as possible from companies to fund goodies for voters.
It's a shame the Telegraph didn't publish all of the expenses claims for its staff...
https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1632112939057422337
I did hear the Taliban turned down an invite to CPAC as they thought it was bit too extreme for them.
Sunak’s secret meetings about the Lords — and why he thinks it needs reform
With more than 800 members, the upper chamber is second only to the Chinese National People’s Congress in size, and not everyone contributes equally
Male peers, as well as those based in London and the southeast, are overrepresented in the chamber when compared with the general population.
Yet they turn up and speak less than their female counterparts or those from the north and Midlands, our analysis shows....
..More than 45 per cent of current peers reside in London and the southeast, compared with only 27 per cent of the population. The northwest and West Midlands are the least represented, with only 8 per cent of peers living in these regions compared with 20 per cent of the population....
...Peers from ethnic minorities claim less in expenses than their white counterparts, and contribute more to debates. Only 7 per cent of current peers are non-white, versus 18 per cent of the country’s population.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunaks-secret-meetings-about-the-lords-and-why-he-thinks-it-needs-reform-6gnwqr3jp
The expenses data was confidential information. I suspect everyone working with the expenses data had no legal route to send it to the Telegraph and had the equivalent of an NDA with it.
Similarly with the Grauniad when it reported on Wikileaks. That was clearly breaching disclosure regulations and the law.
Or the Grauniad when it reported on the Panama Papers leak.
Or pretty much any other data leak, they all come from confidential information that has been illegally obtained. There is no legal route to acquire any of this information, but if there's a public interest defence then the media are allowed to break the law on this as part of free speech and investigative journalism.
Key one is that The Telegraph is pushing a line (lockdowns uniquely bad, should never have happened) that the public mostly don't agree with. Making Sunak out as an anti-lockdown hero works for some, but not many.
Second, we all know that we're only getting a small, selected slice of the messages. What's the whole story?
The Ukrainian children stolen by Putin and sent to camps
Parents were told youngsters were going on school trips — most never returned
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-ukrainian-children-stolen-by-putin-and-sent-to-camps-07mm2d5cz
I have little faith that he actually will.
He seems to have as much interest in a low tax economy as Gordon Brown. So we might as well have Labour running the country, what difference does it make?
Because that's the difference. A general restriction (which may also apply here, of course, in which case Hancock himself may be in deep shit) it's harder to work out who did the selling.
Whereas with an NDA you know who did...
And I also hope there will be no Solveig to save him.
This was a man who thought ten years in prison was a suitable punishment for filling in a form wrong, after all.
(And of course the even more ghastly Starmer supinely backed him and urged him to go further).
Senior figures including some of his own supporters have privately said that the Scottish health secretary is “lightweight”, “over-promoted” and “not going to be able to deliver” if elected leader.
One ally said Yousaf risked being ousted shortly after next year’s general election should the party not live up to its performance under Nicola Sturgeon.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/senior-snp-figures-write-off-humza-yousaf-as-new-leader-b3k8b0wtt
Oakeshott could end up in serious legal trouble over this, the Telegraph not so much.
So I think we're actually on the same page here.
Investing in the UK is taxed very lightly, it is just profit that is to be taxed, and that at rates similar to other countries.
This is how global companies pay little tax anywhere, by playing off one country against another for special deals, leaving ordinary folk like us to pay all the tax.
It astonishes me that so many fall for the Russian propaganda in Africa, Asia, and Latin America that Ukraine are the Nazis, and Russia fighting to protect its people.
And not just in those places either.
Ukraine war: The Moldovan enclave surrounded by pro-Russian forces
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64824517
Instead because both sides fear for the results that it has been kicked into the long grass, so by the time it actually reports everyone will have forgotten the point.
It’s always fun to embarrass Hancock but she was given this information for a specific purpose and under an NDA.
She has clearly demonstrated that she simply cannot be trusted
https://www.regeringen.se/rattsliga-dokument/statens-offentliga-utredningar/2022/02/sou-202210/
And I'd be confident that, given access to all of the WhatsApp messages, you could make that story stand up as well.
But, that leaves a couple of questions.
One is what the ethics of leaking this stuff look like once you strip away the factional interest. I guess you could argue that a journalist has a duty to get what they know published, but what if that means losing the trust they need to get more information in the future?
The other is how far it's OK to select some straws from the haystack and leave others behind. Where does news end and opinion begin?
To win the next election the economy needs to grow and the cost of living crisis needs to abate.
Most of those leaked WhatsApp messages have been a bit of non event, to be honest.
(b) ... and in a trash-the-wrong-sort-of-Tory campaign like this, some tasty bits will be being saved for later.
At first glance it is obvious that is should be mainly for lessons learned and then to an extent holding people accountable for anything negligent (but not general mistakes).
In reality, each crisis is very different and there is a strong chance either the lessons learnt are forgotten or are the wrong lessons for the next crisis. And the people accountable will have moved on.
A much quicker, more streamlined report is clearly better for the public, but worse for the people in charge, so won't happen.
'Jonathan Portes, a professor in economics and public policy at King’s College London and a former senior civil servant at the Treasury, said: “It looks on the face of it that [the Treasury] was deliberately trying to conceal what the evidence was about eat out to help out.
“We need to know what exactly the Department of Health told the Treasury, what was said internally about the data and what the advice was to ministers.”
He said the evidence to date suggested there may have been a “cover-up” and the Treasury needed to publish all the relevant documents. He said it was “disgraceful” and “unprofessional” to dismiss the Warwick University paper [of October 2020], which was on a matter of significant public interest, and there should now be an inquiry.'
That seems like a stretch for both of them for different reasons. RDS is governor and it looks like a low energy loser move for DJT.
DJT also 100% believes he can beat RDS in a primary as doesn't need him as Veep.
IMHO Oakeshott and Hancock have only managed to confirm the view that they are both ideally suited to each other with a common theme of betrayal
Oakeshott, Tice and the Telegraph are anti lockdown which is very much against the majority of public opinion, and frankly I do not think their revelations help their cause as much as they think they do
...“This is the final battle,” he continued. “They know it, I know it, You know it, everybody knows it. This is it. Either they win, or we win and if they win, we no longer have a country.”
The former president went on to position himself as a “warrior” in a battle for “retribution” in Washington.
“In 2016, I declared, ‘I am your voice.’ Today I add: I am your warrior, I am your justice, and for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution,” ..
So the question becomes DJT. He knows he can beat RDS (and he would - check out how he reacted to the East Palestine train crash) but he may think RDS can do enough damage to hit him badly for Nov 24. Plus, RDS can't really wait 2024 out so has to enter even though he knows he can't win. The way out for both is to a deal.
https://davidallengreen.com/2023/03/ndas-and-the-public-interest-a-beginners-guide-for-matt-hancock-and-others/
...It is arguable that a duty of confidentiality that has been expressly assumed under contract carries more weight, when balanced against the restriction of the right of freedom of expression, than a duty of confidentiality that is not buttressed by express agreement; but the extent to which a contract adds to the weight of duty of confidence arising out of a confidential relationship will depend upon the facts of the individual case (ibid at [69] citing Campbell v Frisbee [2003] ICR 141).
“(4) Thus, in essence, the Court must consider whether, having regard to the nature of the information and all the relevant circumstances, it is legitimate for the owner of the information to seek to keep it confidential or whether it is in the public interest that the information should be made public.”..
I don’t think the headline rate makes a huge amount of difference to businesses already here. It has a signalling effect to US groups, but they’re pulling investment back to the US anyway because of the huge incentives there.
These were the somewhat more nuanced points I was making to the journalist, which seem to have been turned as if by magic into a demand for tax cuts.
Attendance requirements
Restrictions on MP or donor elevations.
Age limitation
https://www.crazydaysandnights.net/2023/03/blind-item-8_3.html?m=1
It's not like the expenses scandal, where every day was gold.
Most of the leaked messages are remarkably banal.
You've got to play the hand you've been dealt.
The polling looks good for Trump for the nom.
If I’m wrong, and they are, then UK GDPR and the Data Protection Act 2018 set out exemptions from some of the rights and obligations in some circumstances. One of those is journalism and the public interest. Now, this is not the place for an in depth discussion about whether this or any other exemption was available to Oakeshott and the DT, but their lawyers would have been all over it I’m sure.
The behaviour of the hereditaries is much better than that of the life peers.
It's possible both to hold Oakshott in a degree of contempt, and approve the results.
1) A scientific analysis of what worked and what didn't in terms of disease control and mitigation. This needs to include resilience of the NHS, pandemic preparation, impact on non-covid services, impact of lockdowns on mental health etc.
2) a social and economic analysis of the impacts of pandemic and its control measures (these are intertwined) on how we lived, the changes to work, education and socialisation etc
3) an analysis of who took decisions, when, and on what advice.
The first and second are the important ones for future decision-making so needed soon, the 3rd for political mudslinging, so more likely to be contentious, but not really to matter much in future decades, and can take its time.
But however dodgy her motives, she's probably on balance ended up doing a public service.
Context - house & bank/shop are one U-shaped building. House is southern wing and upstairs across the middle & northern wing, bank is downstairs in the middle and northern wing. Wifey's office upstairs is directly above the former banking hall entrance door. Which keeps being slammed despite nobody being in that part of the building.
A fully elected upper house though would seek to use its mandate to block passage of legislation passed by the elected Commons