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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why even this 4 percent lead on votes projection might not be enough for the Tories to win most seats
Look at the uniform national projection above from Electoral Calculus in which the Tories retain the 37% of 2010 but LAB only edges up 3.3% from the 29.7%. On the face of it the projection looks fine but there is a huge problem that is not factored in.
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It is a fair proxy for No Overall Majority, Labour Most seats.
TSE has filled his boots at 8-1 for loads I think too.
19/01/2014 Single To Win Labour to poll fewer votes and win more seats than Conservatives @ 11/2
Effect Of Electoral Bias
No. of Votes v No. of Seats Pending £3.66 (Max)
15/01/2014 Single To Win Labour to poll fewer votes and win more seats than Conservatives @ 8/1
Effect Of Electoral Bias
No. of Votes v No. of Seats Pending £9.97 (Max)
16/09/2013 Single To Win Labour to poll fewer votes and win more seats than Conservatives @ 7/4
Effect Of Electoral Bias
No. of Votes v No. of Seats Pending £10.00
He was gone two hours after that prediction.
All hail PB's tipster of the year 2014.
My Six Nations piece should be going up this evening.
Edit: Those seats they will do better than UNS are the seats where the LDs are first and Cons second.
As you may have gathered from my somewhat morose contribution to the previous thread it is not really working!
FPT
I genuinely fear for our politics. We have a Labour party that seems to have learned nothing from the worst economic disaster in a century. Against them we have a tory party that has been virtually ungovernable for more than 30 years and is also self indulgent beyond belief.
The tories have forgotten what party politics is all about. They are instead obsessed with issues and are completely uninhibited in the way that they are willing to show splits, disgreements and to tick off large tranches of potential voters. It is more important to win the argument than to win power, to be "right" than actually have influence on the result or the path forward. Compromise is the enemy, not Labour.
Cameron has done an amazing job in trying to keep this bunch of eccentrics and nutters together and all he gets for it is abuse and cries of betrayal. Are we really going to have to go through 10 or 15 more years of Labour destruction before the tories get the message? Are they even capable of understanding it?
The country deserves better, a lot better.
Although it did mean I had to go to Levenshulme to put on one of those bets
."But that's a pretty dodgy reason to be "sceptical" of general relativity!"
I think we have a comprehension problem here. Sorry if I haven't made myself clear.
I'm not skeptical about GR, or Newtonian physics for that matter.
I'm not an expert on climate change but I have refereed scientific articles in a different subject. If a paper ever said "the science is settled", it would head straight for the reject pile.
But I think you've modified your claim now anyway.
Up past a grand now ^^;;; (I'm normally a £5/£10 per bet man)
Maybe. I'm not privy to a conservative MPs post bag or email box but I could have a good guess at what they contain.
Rant after rant about immigration and the EU.
Poorer than 2010? Isn't Ed's leftward move supposed to be motivating the base? Won't that get a few more into the polling booths? Even if 2010 voters behave the same, surely LD-Lab switching in places like Liverpool will see Lab vote share increase?
On the Daily Politics, Andrew Neil asked her about candidate Rufus Hound, who said in a blog "David Cameron and Jeremy Hunt want your kids to die unless you are rich", and asked if she regretted the words
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25982714#
Next England Head Coach: 4/6 A Giles, 4 T Moody, 6 M Arthur, 7 D Whatmore, 10 R Jennings, 20P Collingwood etc
I may go for Tom Moody and Paul Collingwood if I can find it on their website.
Actually - what odds on Gary Kirsten? Worth a small flutter if long enough?
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/1023636/England-Specials.html
I'm on
This may not be as marked this time if there is any swingback in those constituencies.
There is not much more labour vote to squeeze for example in Sutton and Cheam and Labour are getting there act together in the estates at the top of the Borough. Burstow has been an incumbent for 16 years but having been a govt minister could work against him.
This could occur in many other Lib Dem incumbent areas..
Young family and 250 days a year away from home, not really ideal
Moody 10/1
Gibson at 22/1
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/cricket/cricket-specials?AFF_ID=16562
I know he's a Aussie but -
He's done a fantastic job at Yorkshire
My choice would be paul Collingwood,he would get the team playing for him.
England must reject currency union with Scotland
By Martin Wolf
It would be folly for the rest of the UK to enter such an arrangement voluntarily
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/891e4db2-88fe-11e3-bb5f-00144feab7de.html#axzz2rzHHebxf
Paddy Power max £2.47, WIlliam Hill max 100 pennies :!
I suspect that - if Scotland promised to either get its own currency within 10 years or to join the Euro - they would be allowed to keep the pound, even if only as a transitional arrangement.
Unprecedented.
But that is not the same as a currency union with Scotland getting a voice on decisions regarding interest rates, etc.
Just catching up with the F1 livefeed. Apparently Red Bull finished at 12:38. If they start Bahrain well, they can get back on top of things. If not, it bodes very ill.
The Federal Reserve is gradually tiptoeing away from very easy money. As it does so, investors are going back into dollars and out of EM currencies. At the same time, there are signs China is slowing down
1. Concerns about the Chinese credit bubble. There are a lot of very scary things coming out of China and in particular about its shadow banking system. If China were to have serious problems, it would have implications for the rest of the world (and in particular those countries which are big exporters to China, notably Germany, Australia and Brazil).
2. The Fed has begun reducing its stimulus, which means there is incrementally less cheap money sloshing round the system. Because investors know the stimulus is being removed, they are trying to get out 'first'.
3. December quarter profits, particularly in the US, are coming in slightly weaker than expected. It's notable that the two markets which are doing best in the world (Spain, Italy) are the pretty much the only ones where earnings estimates for 2014 are being raised.
Is Contagian a Roman Emperor?
I haven't heard of him before.
Really?
Hey, I know what - we'll keep the Bank of England, and you can have Royal Bank of Scotland
Deal?
Obviously do your own research, but hopefully I will be the Aristotle to your Alexander the Great.
Sunderland to beat Newcastle 10/3 with Coral
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/newcastle-v-sunderland/winner
Villa to beat Everton 6/1 with Coral
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/everton-v-aston-villa/winner
and Liverpool to score more than 4 goals against West Brom. 5/1 With William Hill
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/west-brom-v-liverpool/total-away-goals
My six nations piece should be up this evening
Why on Earth should we do that, Mr. Navabi? Telling even white lies seldom helps and never in the case of formulating policy. Why shouldn't everyone be told the truth, "Scotland's needs, as far as they differ from those of England, will be accorded the same degree of consideration as those of Burkina Faso".
5. Emerging Markets Currency crisis.
6. Disappointing results from US major stocks (e.g. Amazon, MasterCard but Google countering trend).
[Combine my 6. with your 3. - apologies]
A shocker of a market, Shadsy !
Could you give us a sneak preview? as I remember you backed Wales last year. I fancy France to beat England.....
So do the bookies
There was a comment on one of the Times articles that brought a smile.
Scots should remember, Alex Salmond says he will be able to force
1) The EU to accept Scotland as a continuing member
2) The rump UK into a currency union.
Yet this is the man who can't even force David Cameron into a debate.
And your four is probably not that much of factor, given the weakest markets are the Asian ones (who are the least affected), and the strongest ones are the peripheral European ones (the Italian market is actually up year-to-date).
You;re thinking of Contrarian.
I may have also engaged in some trolling, that may annoy some Welsh Rugby fans.
Oh no.....that's the other lot.....
Yes Scotland sheds more senior staff as funding doubts reemerge
The five executive directors hired to run the official independence campaign have all now gone, adding to questions about its direction and spending power
Their departures has fueled suspicions that Yes Scotland is running short of cash, and needs to cut costs, while those there have cited internal tensions, doubts over Blair Jenkins' leadership as chief executive and the increase in day-to-day control over Yes Scotland's activities by the Scottish National party, belying its cross-party founding principles.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/2014/jan/27/scottish-independence-yesscotland
Ireland are 5s to win the tournament with Power. If Sean O'brien were fit I'd be tempted.
Italy are 14s to beat Wales. Hmmnn
David Silvester gay marriage flood row councillor's home 'egged'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-25977349
I really cannot conceive of something more likely to make the separation of Scotland and rUK acrimonous than supposedly sharing a currency which in fact is completely dominated by the 92% partner. Are we really going to have all of our whiney, lefty politicians running about moaning about tory cuts after independence? What on earth is the point of that?
*snort*
Interesting article in the Economist of the threat of deflation in the EU:
http://econ.st/1fqQj4V
[A bit dry - avoid if you don't like use of words such as 'exogenous']
Here is the key paragraph:
An adjustment strategy based on the expectation that already over-indebted countries will pay back what they owe in an environment of falling prices seems doomed to failure; all the more so if “internal devaluation” at the level of individual member-states is replaced by euro-zone-wide deflation. But outright deflation would be much more costly than that. If economic historians have learned anything from the Great Depression, it is that deflation is dangerous. First, nominal wages are sticky downward: as Ben Bernanke and Kevin Carey showed for the interwar period, this implies that price deflation, if achieved at all, leads to higher real wages and unemployment. Second, deflation is harmful in other ways, increasing the real value of private as well as public debt, raising real interest rates, and leading agents to postpone expensive purchases. And interwar deflation ultimately had terrible political consequences, as well as economic ones.
I'd mark the downfall of the BNP as beginning when Nick Griffin was given the chance to say his piece on Question Time.
Far better to allow someone like Silvester to share their views as widely and loudly as possible. Because sensible people see immediately how daft they are
To be honest, I don't know why the SNP wants to debate Dave, he'll spank Alex Salmond silly in the debate.
The best option for Alex Salmond is to debate Darling, who is vastly overrated.
Put it this way, if Farage wanted a debate with Dave, and Dave sent William Hague or someone else, Farage would debate with whomever Dave sent.
To be fair to Rajoy, I and others have been saying for a long time, the outcome of the referendum may well be determined by Rajoy having to deal with his Catalonian secessionists, which is very unfair on Scottish secessionists.
Beef with mustard and red pepper was probably the nicest I can recall having.
ALEX Salmond’s plans for Scotland’s currency are dismissed as “stupidity on stilts” today by a former SNP deputy leader.
Writing for the Record, Jim Sillars takes the First Minister to task for his “clueless” plan to share the pound with the remainder of the UK after a Yes vote.
The heavyweight Yes campaigner says that would give London huge control over our economy.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/former-snp-deputy-leader-jim-3095958
My kind of Emperor!
He has now replaced Eliogabalus at the top of my list.
However, the question was "why are stock markets weak?"
And given that pretty much the only markets in the world that are up right now are Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Greece (and Spain is only marginally down), it seems hard to make the case that Eurozone deflationary fears are at the heart of the falls seen in the UK, the US and the Asian markets.
By the way, Abenomics has got inflation moving in Japan - we're now at 1.5%.
I have not received anything remotely similar from the no campaign.
The referendum bill breathes its last.
Let the Tory infighting begin.