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A big gap has opened up among the pollsters – politicalbetting.com
A big gap has opened up among the pollsters – politicalbetting.com
Hopefully today we will see the first GB voting poll following the events of Monday on the moves relating to the Northern Ireland protocol. Sunak has played a leading role here and has been getting a good press.
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Amid all that, Sunak didn’t cower in the bunker. Instead, unlike Liz Truss, he prioritised the things where he could begin to shift the dial and build some political capital. Sorting the protocol was in that category, a sensible bit of ground-clearing and confidence-building. A government of which he was part had created the whole problem in the first place, of course, and one should never tire of saying so. But he did an important job this week.
Changes of this kind are not like electoral on-off switches. No Tory leader can simply declare the convulsions of the past seven years over, or announce that from now on, they will be competent and consensual. The damage done by the polarisation, recklessness, venality and destructiveness of the May-Johnson-Truss years casts long shadows that will shape the politics of this decade. Nevertheless, this week highlighted some early if incomplete signs that Sunak is starting to change the Tory party. It would be foolish to ignore them. Starmer certainly is not doing so.
That's the sort of collapse Labour need to experience for the Tories to get a lead.
The former prime minister will use an address in central London to outline his views on the new deal amid mounting criticism from Tory Eurosceptics.
One ally suggested he would criticise parts of the deal but said that he will not oppose it outright. A source close to Johnson did not deny that he retains significant concerns about the plans and stands by his warning that the government should retain the Northern Ireland protocol bill.
The protocol bill would enable the government to unilaterally override the existing Brexit deal. However, Sunak is dropping the legislation after securing his new deal with the EU.
The European Research Group, which is made up of Eurosceptic Tory MPs, will wait for a fortnight before delivering its verdict on the deal. It has resurrected its so-called “star chamber” of lawyers to pore through the detail of the agreement.
Sunak has been clear that he will give Eurosceptics and the DUP time to consider the deal before holding any vote on the plans in the Commons. The Times has been told that the vote could be delayed until after the budget on March 15.
One senior Eurosceptic Tory MP said: “Now the initial euphoria has died down people are starting to ask serious questions.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-deal-rishi-sunak-latest-news-pmqs-keir-starmer-dup-bv8zhndpt
I absolutely was staggered to see the cost of Calgon has gone up from £10 to £16 in recent weeks.
He daren't oppose it. But he doesn't want to be seen to support it.
‘The record will show that I had legitimate concerns etc’
On the WF, I met with a long-standing Tory party friend last night for the football, he seems to think there will be fewer than 20 rebels and if the government threatens to remove the whip from anyone who doesn't vote in favour that number could be just a handful that they wouldn't mind losing anyway in the run up to the election.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=346392
...According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, recipients of more than $150 million in direct funding will be required to share with the U.S. government a portion of any cash flow or returns that exceed the applicant's projections by an agreed-upon threshold.
In addition, companies winning awards will be required to enter into agreements restricting their ability to expand semiconductor manufacturing capacities in China and other foreign countries of concern for 10 years after winning the funding.
Controversy has also erupted over allowing the U.S. Department of Defense and the national security community to have access to secure and cutting-edge logic chip manufacturing in a commercial production environment in the U.S...
Yet wind turbines cannot be built on the land of indigenous peoples in Norway, for ... reasons.
“Indigenous rights, human rights, must go hand-in-hand with climate protection and climate action. That can’t happen at the expense of some people,” Thunberg told Reuters on Monday."
Why do only the rights of indigenous people matter? Why should any of us suffer by progressing green energy faster than the economy can sustain?
(Dons flameproof coat)
I think she might be Nigel Farage in disguise.
I can see this affecting the polls in one of two ways, though. First, it could give Sunak the air of competence and order - two qualities notably missing from Johnson and Truss. If the Conservatives are to have any hope of regaining their position, they need to be thought of as competent once again.
Second, it’s equally possible this may reawaken the headbangers. If it leads to yet another bout of Tory backbenchers “banging on about Europe” (tm), the Tory vote share could drop still further.
By now many of you will have seen last night’s article on Craig Murray’s site, in which a current SNP branch convener revealed how the party machine is setting fire to all its own rules in a desperate attempt to secure the succession of Humza Yousaf.
Yousaf is the party establishment’s last hope of keeping all of its misdeeds in the last few years under wraps, and realising the magnitude of what’s at stake if he loses to Ash Regan or Kate Forbes, they’re abandoning all pretence of neutrality or integrity and throwing everything they’ve got at getting him elected.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-last-days-of-saigon/
Pressure has been applied to the curators who, instead of saying 'eff off', have tried to oblige with a turner. They've overdone it. It's a dog. They've only themselves to blame.
He's yesterday's man. And thank goodness for that.
Saffers were 200-1 at one point so the wicket can't be that bad.
Great - so why can't GB have this deal? When pressed the same ministers flip over and start saying how the world beating deal would be a terrible deal for GB. When pressed why they start obsfucating, then objecting to the question.
Meanwhile, Brexit-voting first time Tories see NI thriving and Fuck All happening in their shitbox red wall town and "I didn't vote Brexit to get poorer" really starts to resonate. Some posters on here over the last few days have almost sneeringly tried to dismiss the idea of GB having the same deal as being impossible. But voters don't know and don't care what you think is possible. Or about how it works. Or detail. They were promised better times ahead, those are now going only to NI and not them.
In that scenario, the Tories are absolutely screwed.
The F-22 Raptor is prohibited from export from the United States. Yet there are 20 aircraft flying today under the Union Jack. How so?
The 1-month inflation rate in the UK for February 2022 was +0.8%. Recently UK inflation figures have been worse than Ireland's. There's potential for a nasty surprise if inflation doesn't fall as expected.
The NI Bill is no longer necessary so wtf would you keep that unless you want to continue having bad relations with the EU .
Johnson needs to stfu and not show his face given his so called negotiating triumph was garbage .
That comes bottom of my list.
It is the impact on everything else that we should be concerned about.
What a tragedy that would be.
Bunter is continuing to defend his past because that is now literally his meal ticket. What is delicious about the mess is that all the people who defended Boris who "got Brexit done" are now promoting the WF which repairs the damage and mess caused by the shoddy Boris Brexit deal. And worse still? Why NI gets the world-beating deal "and NOT US" will be thrown in mince MPs faces on doorsteps until the next election.
What's odd to me is that those who are most critical of her are the ones who seem most interested in her latest utterances. Most of us are considerably more interested in the issue than we are in what she has to say about it.
He subsequently added: “I think the best way forward is, as I said when I was running the government, is the Northern Ireland bill, which, you know, cleared the Commons very comfortably, I think unamended, when I was in office only a few months ago.”
However, Sunak used his Commons address to in effect trash Johnson’s protocol bill. The bill, he said, “was only ever meant to be a last resort”. He added: “Neither do we need the bill, nor do we have a credible basis to pursue it.”
And Hancock according to these messages isn't totally useless. He realised Williamson is a useless prat who was cocking up left, right and centre.
Expansion Of EV Battery Manufacturing Capacity In North America Amazes
https://insideevs.com/news/654889/ev-battery-manufacturing-capacity-north-america-2030/
...Considering the announced battery plants in the United States, Canada and Mexico (through November 2022), the volume is expected to increase to 346 GWh/year in 2024, and exceed 800 GWh/year in 2025, reaching nearly 998 GWh/year by 2030.
Those numbers might actually be higher if someone would announces additional battery plants in North America.
The growth from 55 GWh/year in 2021 to nearly 1,000 GWh/year (or 1 TWh) in 2030 is quite amazing. According to the report, by 2030, the industry should be capable of supporting batteries for 10-13 million all-electric vehicles annually (assuming 77-100 kWh per vehicle on average).
Battery plant locations
The new battery plants are usually located in relatively close proximity to vehicle assembly plants to simplify logistics and cut costs.
As we can see below, most of the planned battery plants in the US are concentrated along a north-south band from Michigan to Alabama. The report notes that the highest growth of battery manufacturing capacity (based on announced plans), will be in Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, and Michigan...
Are those concessions worth doing? Probably yes, if we're talking cost:benefit. Probably yes, if we're talking concessions to political and geographic reality.
But in terms of the great Conservative/UKIP internal drama? I rather doubt it. Not yet anyway.
See the conversations here yesterday where cross Brexiteers seemed to be reassuring themselves that Singapore was definitely going to happen and it would serve everyone else right.
https://twitter.com/jaheale/status/1630709836177457152?s=46&t=jkvRY6JsvE1I-2t12-QBqQ
“I can assure you there is widespread resentment in the Party at your activities and a period of silence on your part would be welcome.”
We've left ourselves open to have any old shit imported, but we trust the EU. If we can get them to do the same then we're able to unlock trade again. We'll have to do a deal on standards, but again both parties have the same intentions. Now that we are no longer paranoid that the evil EU will impose damaging standards on itself just to screw the UK, we can have a sensible conversation.
My other point is simple - voters don't know how any of this works. They just want what the Tories promised them. With NI now being trumpeted as receiving the better deal and them being told they can't have it, voters in key seats are likely to lose their shit. Doubly so when their MP is of the calibre of Lee Anderson or Mr Don Valley.
It's all bollocks of course, but that is BoZo's stock in trade
They certainly have little reason to vote Tory otherwise, they don't want tighter controls on spending or tax cuts for the rich as well as them.
I'm interested in what she has to say about it because it indicates she's finally realising that she lives in the real world, and actions - even well-intentioned ones - have consequences. Something many of her followers have yet to understand.
I doubt she'll join the dots the entire way though - and the Sami will be as far as she goes.
1 Red Wall first timers. Promised better times if they vote Boris and his oven ready deal. Now they see all the "world-beating" benefits only going to NI and then patronisingly sneered at because they didn't vote for that deal and it wouldn't be good for them. I can't stress enough how little the Tories are delivering regeneration in red wall seats - promise of jam tomorrow isn't enough, especially NI jam tomorrow but non for you.
2 Blue wall remainers. We know that investment and regeneration is important here as well - remember Sunak in Tunbridge promising better times ahead. And yet here they are getting screwed again, with NI given a halfway house that they are told wouldn't be good for them.
If NI takes off this will be catastrophic for the Tories. Better hope that bowler-hatted twattery digs its heels in and finds a way to torpedo the thing.
Mr. Palmer, an exception for indigenous rights but not economic reality is the natural endpoint of prioritising feelings over facts.
There are now 11 toilets in space, a new world record!
https://twitter.com/starstryder/status/1631168680003239936
Brexit was meaningful for them. Good times ahead. And now you are saying good times only in Norniron, and actually the good times would be bad for you actually.
Looking at the polls in 1996 gives even wider Labour lead spreads e.g. between 14% and 39.5% in January, 16% - 31% in Feb, 14% - 34.5% in March.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1996
Interestingly, in periods when the average lead is lower the spread of pollsters leads is also much lower.
Some further analysis might be interesting and if there was a readily downloadable spreadsheet of historic polling I'd be happy to do it. Unfortunately, extracting the, otherwise useful, Wiki tables into a spreadsheet is a complete ball-ache.
Has anyone ever seen George Osborne and TSE together in the same room? Just asking.
Without the end to free movement and regained Sovereignty (including not the ECJ jurisdiction Northern Ireland still has) they have no reason to stay voting Tory at all (except maybe restoring the death penalty for serial killers which most of them also support)
She's added nuance. And if she's allowed to, why can't others argue climate action can be deprioritised for another no doubt good reason?
Expending political capital on defending seats that are lost at the expense of seats still in play isn't good tactics. Especially in FPTP, it can turn a defeat into a rout.
Just removing migrants isn't the end game you describe. That is just the enabler for the end game. And after years of failing to show any prospects of the boost to jobs / services, Sunak is now saying only for NI and not for you.
You won't admit it because ideologue, but your party is going to get absolutely torn to pieces over this. Red wall voters - as I keep pointing out - aren't stupid. Which rather torpedoes your entire political philosophy which assumes they are. And to be fair, with some of the red wall MPs you gained in 2019 I can understand why you assume the voters are mince like them.
It's the sort of classic talk the DUP and the more intense ERGers will love - say you want the good parts of the deal, but complain about any cost to getting that.
The noisy people are fanatical, and that's the problem. From Extinction Rebellion to the nutters who have stopped a new local much-needed road from being built near me: https://www.huntspost.co.uk/news/23298182.a428-black-cat-caxton-gibbet-legal-challenge-refused/
Or Welsh Labour's stupid cancellation of the entire road building program.
I'm not arguing against work to prevent climate change; just that we have to pick a pace that doesn't help send people into food and other types of poverty, and allows us to grow and improve as a country and society.
They are a million miles from Cameron and Osborne Toryism there but much closer to Boris and Lee Anderson Conservatism
Unless you actually understand the issues and the voters, what hope do you have of creating strategies to keep their votes? You keep repeating the same spin lines which are worth nothing to red wallers.
It's a classic would X criticise Y if Y used the same argument situation. She and her core supporters absolutely would see any such talk as seeking to get around the need to act.
You and I and most people accept other considerations matter. She has blasted anyone trying to do so. Blah blah blah remember?
And we know that an immediate deflection will be people saying those commenting are weirdly obsessed with her or to stop attacking her, but thats nonsense. She's a global celebrity and a major figure, commenting on her pronouncements is ok.
Live by the fanatics creed, you get cut by it too.
Speaking of wickets, Kemar Roach is really bowling well here.
It also shows that both the US and UK are willing to take active steps to interdict Russian supply.
The solution is to flood police and justice and probation services with resources. Nick the criminals, lock up the criminals, rehabilitate the criminals. Then flood the communities with investment in jobs and services and education. Stop the next generation becoming scummers.
Instead, local Tories are doing the opposite - fewer police on the ground, courts unable to prosecute, a slashed probation service letting lags out, schools and hospitals overwhelmed and crumbling.
Red wall voters can't feed their kids on sovereignty. Can't secure their homes with a bring back hanging poster. They wanted the action they were promised. Yet HY and his party just sneer at them and call them thick.