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Truss: Stabbed In The Back? Or Tripped Over Her Feet? – politicalbetting.com

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043

    I was talking to a friend tonight whom I thought was probably Tory, or at least a v likely Tory voter and I was surprised when he said that the Tories had got pretty much every major decision wrong since Cameron ..were in hoc to business and needed a decade out of power to re-evaluate what they should be about.

    As a longtime Tory voter, I think that's about right. I don't want the Party humiliated but it might well be.

    In hoc to biz?! Corp tax is rocketing by about 30% in a few weeks....
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    Foxy said:

    EPG said:

    The super-cynical, Lee Kuan Yew-type viewpoint would be that the major Western countries have large populations that can rely on voting power or soft-heartedness to vote themselves an income, be they pensioners, the multi-generational urban poor, farmers, and so on. Then everyone else pays tax levels to fund them, and you get a society that organises itself on the basis that work won't be rewarded. Singapore and Switzerland both tried to avoid this by regulating admission to their countries, but they were starting as small trading spots, peripheries to a global-scale economy.

    Both Switzerland and Singapore are countries with a great deal of immigration, albeit ones that set it up so that immigrants have to pay their way.

    Taiwan might well be another country to copy economically (though one with poor demographics and real threat of conquest).

    These are all countries though that trade in high tech manufacturing, and to an extent financial services. It ain't obvious that the Red Wall wants that.
    I think there’s an idea that the Red Wall are a pack of morons. I’m totally unconvinced of that. However, they have largely been ignored, or patronised.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    edited February 2023
    I don’t think China is arming Russia.
    The first para in Foxy’s post contains a premise that Russia will collapse unless they do so, but that seems like a very large stretch.

    The West do not want and have no interest in dismembering Russia. The likeliest outcome as it stands in Ukraine is a “frozen” conflict with borders looking similar(ish) to the status quo ante bellum.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    TimS said:

    On the China supplying Russia question, what if they start supplying weapons….and Russia still loses.

    Not an impossible outcome.

    It depends on your view of how wars are won or lost. If war is fundamentally a matter of logistics - i.e. being able to supply an army in the field so that it can actually fight - then it follows that war is even more fundamentally a question of industrial production, of being able to produce the supplies that logistics moves to your army in the field.

    So if Russia gets access to the industrial production capacity of China, then it's hard to see how it could be knocked out of the war. China can supply many thousands of trucks to improve Russia's logistics. It can provide armoured vehicles to equip new military units. It could provide very large quantities of artillery ammunition for Russia's artillery.

    If the Chinese can produce the weapons as quickly as Ukraine destroys them, and Russia can continue to conscript its population to fight with those weapons, then there's no victory for Ukraine in the war.
    It may simply mean the victory takes longer, until both Russia and China are fatigued and cut their losses. Like America in Vietnam, France in Algeria, the USSR in Afghanistan or America again in Afghanistan. They are up against a country fighting for national survival - and far more unified than the Taliban, Vietcong or Algerian national liberation front ever managed.

    Chinese help is unlikely to extend to paying over the odds for oil and gas so Russia would continue to bleed money and slowly destroy
    working age population.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    Foxy said:

    EPG said:

    The super-cynical, Lee Kuan Yew-type viewpoint would be that the major Western countries have large populations that can rely on voting power or soft-heartedness to vote themselves an income, be they pensioners, the multi-generational urban poor, farmers, and so on. Then everyone else pays tax levels to fund them, and you get a society that organises itself on the basis that work won't be rewarded. Singapore and Switzerland both tried to avoid this by regulating admission to their countries, but they were starting as small trading spots, peripheries to a global-scale economy.

    Both Switzerland and Singapore are countries with a great deal of immigration, albeit ones that set it up so that immigrants have to pay their way.

    Taiwan might well be another country to copy economically (though one with poor demographics and real threat of conquest).

    These are all countries though that trade in high tech manufacturing, and to an extent financial services. It ain't obvious that the Red Wall wants that.
    Yes, Switzerland creams two million skilled Europeans, a little like London, and most of them are temporary (albeit the overall level is permanently high). The challenge for any country would be to out-compete Switzerland's terms if it wanted to do the same. E.g. radically cutting their welfare states to reduce the tax bill. You certainly can't do the same if you need to scale up the number, as a share of your labour force, to fifteen million. No, I don't think more referendums make this work.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    edited February 2023
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Marmite is right, Mortimer, but that implies that as well as motivating his supporters to come out and vote for him, he also motivates those who dislike him to come out and vote too.

    I think the chances of the next GE being an extinction event for the Tory Party are probably greater under Johnson. (It may surprise you to learn that I don't think this would be a particularly desirable outcome.)
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
    There you go again, making the mistake that everyone who dislikes Johnson mates. You understimate the enthusiasm he attracts.

    Very happy and Happy total 20%. Add the neither happy nor unhappy and you're at a whacking 38%.....

    Amongst over 65s, you're at over 50%.....
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    On the China supplying Russia question, what if they start supplying weapons….and Russia still loses.

    Not an impossible outcome.

    On the contrary, it's highly likely.
    Which is why under normal circumstances you'd think that China would stay out of the conflict. Not only worried about sanctions, but a rational Chinese leader also wouldn't want to lose face by backing the losing side of a major conflict.

    Unfortunately instead of a rational Chinese leader, we have Xi. The world is cursed to have both China and Russia ran by megalomaniac dictators at the moment, rather than relatively benign dictators.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rishi may not be great at politics, see the announcement he and Hunt made on public sector pay, however they are delivering relatively competent government for the country. Tax receipts are up, borrowing is down and the economy is starting to grow again and inflation get under control. Even if they don't get the reward at the ballot box as Major and Ken Clarke didn't in 1997 either longer term history will look more kindly on them

    The stats at the moment are a bit misleading.

    Tax receipts up: the self assessment stats were inflated by large numbers of asset disposals ahead of feared CGT rate rise (which didn’t happen)

    Borrowing down: the above, plus significantly cheaper EPG costs than expected as the wholesale gas price plummeted

    Economy starting to grow again: that big may be true although it’s always dangerous to trust the ONS. It dies look like the world economy may be turning a corner. Stock markets up and deal volumes starting to increase. But real terms wages are likely to continue falling for some time yet. And mortgage interest rates rising.
    In worldwide economic terms I think that we may well be about to see a shock. If China arms Russia, expect sanctions against China and a new Cold War, with a more powerful economy this time round.

    It would be a mistake for China, but the economic shocks of last year would be mere tremors compared to that.
    You and I might think it would be a mistake for China, but would they?

    If they do nothing, then Russia faces the prospect of complete defeat in Ukraine, and conversely the West receives the boost of a major victory. The West is revitalised with a new sense of purpose and confidence, and, for a while at least, does not have to worry about Russia's shattered military posing a serious threat.

    If China provides Russia with military equipment, weapons and ammunition then China will certainly pay an economic cost, to an extent, but they may judge that they are better placed to pay the cost of an economic rupture with the West, than the West is to pay the cost of an economic rupture with China. They will ensure that the West has to devote considerable resources to supply Ukraine with enough military resources to avoid defeat at the hands of the Chinese-supplied Russian army, or the West may even be forced to watch as Ukraine accepts some degree of defeat in this phase of the war. The West will be disheartened, and continuing war, or the Russian threat of war, in Europe will distract the West's attention from other parts of the world. The West may find that an uncomfortable number of countries value a good relationship with China more highly than they value a good relationship with the West. China will be able to learn valuable lessons about how its equipment fares in combat against Western equipment.

    All the while, Chinese demographics are developing rapidly in an unfavourable direction. the window of opportunity for China to use its current economic strength to make geopolitical gains is narrowing. If they want to retake Taiwan they cannot afford to wait too long, and it will be easier if the West is weaker, distracted and disheartened.

    I can see China making the same calculation that Putin made a year ago. They either act now, or not at all. And they really don't want to not act at all. That would be the worst.

    I've heard stories about my wife's Nana, who spent a lot of her life hoarding tea, following her experience during the Emergency (WWII) of not being able to obtain the stuff. Is there anything I will regret not laying in generous supplies of in advance, should the economy be be sent to shit because of a new Cold War, and a prolonged war in Ukraine?
    I think it would be a mistake for China, in the longer term, as they would be chaining themselves to the corpse that is Russia. They may see advantages in the short term, and therein lies the danger.

    I would think the optimum for China in the Russo-Ukranian war would be a grinding stalemate that ties up both NATO and Russia, while their Belt and Road initiative ties up the rest of the Eurasian and African economies.

    The issue is China sees a Russia losing the war as a win for the West and therefore negative for itself.

    There are also some signs internally that China is cracking down (again) on its corporate sector after lightening up to promote growth. That may also suggests a return to security.

    Having said that, there is a good chance that Chinese equipment is shit. The old adage is if you have to choose an AK47, don't go for China's. How much of their equipment is like Russia's - supposedly gray but actually shit?
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Marmite is right, Mortimer, but that implies that as well as motivating his supporters to come out and vote for him, he also motivates those who dislike him to come out and vote too.

    I think the chances of the next GE being an extinction event for the Tory Party are probably greater under Johnson. (It may surprise you to learn that I don't think this would be a particularly desireable outcome.)
    My feeling is that opposition is baked in, now. The anti Tory vote is mobilised.

    The problem with Sunak is he doesn't motivate the pro Tory vote either. At all.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    Lost Password - China has been reluctant to supply Russia with weapons thus far, so why now? It's clear Putin has been in trouble for some time. They are obviously worried about western sanctions. That said there are obvious precedents for countries getting involved to stop others from losing wars.

    I think it has been a diplomatic success on the part of the West to have dissuaded China from supplying weapons to Russia. Maybe that success can be maintained, but I worry that it won't be, and that we aren't remotely prepared for the contingency where it fails.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043
    Anyone who doesn't think a Johnson return would boost the Tory vote needs to remember all the vox-pops from the public - he has name recognition that Starmer or Sunak would die for. He's a politician who people relate to.

    'Keith' and 'Richey' don't even seem to get people to manage to get their first names right in my experience.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    edited February 2023
    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    EPG said:

    The super-cynical, Lee Kuan Yew-type viewpoint would be that the major Western countries have large populations that can rely on voting power or soft-heartedness to vote themselves an income, be they pensioners, the multi-generational urban poor, farmers, and so on. Then everyone else pays tax levels to fund them, and you get a society that organises itself on the basis that work won't be rewarded. Singapore and Switzerland both tried to avoid this by regulating admission to their countries, but they were starting as small trading spots, peripheries to a global-scale economy.

    Both Switzerland and Singapore are countries with a great deal of immigration, albeit ones that set it up so that immigrants have to pay their way.

    Taiwan might well be another country to copy economically (though one with poor demographics and real threat of conquest).

    These are all countries though that trade in high tech manufacturing, and to an extent financial services. It ain't obvious that the Red Wall wants that.
    Yes, Switzerland creams two million skilled Europeans, a little like London, and most of them are temporary (albeit the overall level is permanently high). The challenge for any country would be to out-compete Switzerland's terms if it wanted to do the same. E.g. radically cutting their welfare states to reduce the tax bill. You certainly can't do the same if you need to scale up the number, as a share of your labour force, to fifteen million. No, I don't think more referendums make this work.
    Not forgetting political neutrality, which over the course of several world and regional wars must add up in compound terms to a hell of a lot of extra economic stability and growth and lower public debt. Similar to Singapore in that respect.
  • Options
    Excellent header - bang on the (lack of) money.

    We can at least be grateful for the City's nickname for Truss - "Daggers" as in "Dagenham, two stops beyond Barking".
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    I don’t think China is arming Russia.
    The first para in Foxy’s post contains a premise that Russia will collapse unless they do so, but that seems like a very large stretch.

    The West do not want and have no interest in dismembering Russia. The likeliest outcome as it stands in Ukraine is a “frozen” conflict with borders looking similar(ish) to the status quo ante bellum.

    I don't think that I have predicted a Russian collapse without Chinese help. I think it likely that it would still grind on as a stalemate in the Donbas as an infantry and artillery war with massive Russian casualties. The other Oblasts might be recaptured by Ukraine, so winding up pretty close to the start line of last year.

  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    Anyone who doesn't think a Johnson return would boost the Tory vote needs to remember all the vox-pops from the public - he has name recognition that Starmer or Sunak would die for. He's a politician who people relate to.

    'Keith' and 'Richey' don't even seem to get people to manage to get their first names right in my experience.

    The latter is typically said a la Richie Rich, so isn't a lack of name recognition but rather intentional.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi may not be great at politics, see the announcement he and Hunt made on public sector pay, however they are delivering relatively competent government for the country. Tax receipts are up, borrowing is down and the economy is starting to grow again and inflation get under control. Even if they don't get the reward at the ballot box as Major and Ken Clarke didn't in 1997 either longer term history will look more kindly on them

    That could be true, and I will be interested to see which Tories say that after the next election when the party will probably pillory the pair of them.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,363

    I don’t think China is arming Russia.
    The first para in Foxy’s post contains a premise that Russia will collapse unless they do so, but that seems like a very large stretch.

    The West do not want and have no interest in dismembering Russia. The likeliest outcome as it stands in Ukraine is a “frozen” conflict with borders looking similar(ish) to the status quo ante bellum.

    A frozen conflict would probably suit China just fine. I can see why an outright Russian defeat would worry them.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    On the China supplying Russia question, what if they start supplying weapons….and Russia still loses.

    Not an impossible outcome.

    On the contrary, it's highly likely.
    Which is why under normal circumstances you'd think that China would stay out of the conflict. Not only worried about sanctions, but a rational Chinese leader also wouldn't want to lose face by backing the losing side of a major conflict.

    Unfortunately instead of a rational Chinese leader, we have Xi. The world is cursed to have both China and Russia ran by megalomaniac dictators at the moment, rather than relatively benign dictators.
    In case people object to the term benign dictator, perhaps simply less, er, ambitious ones.
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Labour Party survived two terms led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory Party survived being led by Iain Duncan Smith. The Tories will survive a Hunt Chancellorship.

    They'll lose after it, but the Party will be there to be rebuilt in Opposition.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043

    Mortimer said:

    Anyone who doesn't think a Johnson return would boost the Tory vote needs to remember all the vox-pops from the public - he has name recognition that Starmer or Sunak would die for. He's a politician who people relate to.

    'Keith' and 'Richey' don't even seem to get people to manage to get their first names right in my experience.

    The latter is typically said a la Richie Rich, so isn't a lack of name recognition but rather intentional.
    I'm not sure - just as about 50% of Brits that I've heard try and say Sajid Javid make a meal of it, the number of Richey Sanooks, or Richey Sunats I hear down these parts make me think its a failure to launch problem....
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    I think this scenario is underpriced - him returning as LOTO. I see more chance of that than any change before the GE.
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Johnson is toxic and at least Sunak and Hunt have stabilised the economy after the dreadful Truss

    Sunak looks like he may well do a deal on NI despite Johnson efforts and apparently he has told Barclay to do a deal with the nurses

    There is time for sensible tax cuts, and I would expect to see them in 2024 but a lot depends on outside factors and not least the concern the Ukraine conflict could last not just months but years

    While the polls are terrible the public would be furious with Johnson and his allies if he was foisted on the nation again
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,271
    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Tories have no serious opposition on the right to replace them.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    edited February 2023
    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    It’s mental that we are even entertaining such prospects.

    I respect your opinion on this, as a long-time and intelligent Tory with, I think, one foot each in key demographics.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043
    edited February 2023

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Labour Party survived two terms led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory Party survived being led by Iain Duncan Smith. The Tories will survive a Hunt Chancellorship.

    They'll lose after it, but the Party will be there to be rebuilt in Opposition.
    My yardstick is my father; a life long Tory voter. He won't vote Tory at the next election with declinists in charge.

    He once drove 3 hours home to vote in a PCC election.

    If my father is lost, the party is done for.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    edited February 2023
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Marmite is right, Mortimer, but that implies that as well as motivating his supporters to come out and vote for him, he also motivates those who dislike him to come out and vote too.

    I think the chances of the next GE being an extinction event for the Tory Party are probably greater under Johnson. (It may surprise you to learn that I don't think this would be a particularly desireable outcome.)
    My feeling is that opposition is baked in, now. The anti Tory vote is mobilised.

    The problem with Sunak is he doesn't motivate the pro Tory vote either. At all.
    I can see that. Causing a rightly feared 'stay at home' shellacking even if the repulsion is limited a bit.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    THE

    Truss.

    Need I say more?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    WillG said:

    The header is well-written and a good length. It raises some points that we're familiar with from btl debates about the Truss period, polished up and presented nicely as an opinion piece. As an overall analysis of the Truss's economic policy I find it weak, and the arguments being rebutted are straw man arguments. But it is meant to be more a collection of light-hearted snark about Truss, and on that level it works.

    You say without any rebuttal to the actual factual points made. Most notably Truss behaving more similarly to Callahan than Thatcher.
    I don't see that that is a factual point. Truss did expand spending, but because of the energy support package - something that has universal political support, and was necessitated by a massive energy price shock. Her tax cuts were actually very modest, and were intended more as a signal that the UK was open for business than an actual return to a low tax economy - they barely touched that. It is also the case that overall tax receipts are very sensitive to growth or shrinkage in the economy - less people on the dole, more spending, more companies investing etc. Tax rises are not risk free, indeed there's a strong risk that they reduce overall tax receipts in the long term and it turns into a vicious cycle.

    We cannot know what Thatcher would have done under the same circumstances, and also, it is fanciful to hold Thatcher up as a paragon of economic policy, given that the economy did misbehave at various points during her tenure. She was an amazing PM and we owe her a great debt, but she wasn't perfect.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
    There you go again, making the mistake that everyone who dislikes Johnson mates. You understimate the enthusiasm he attracts.

    Very happy and Happy total 20%. Add the neither happy nor unhappy and you're at a whacking 38%.....

    Amongst over 65s, you're at over 50%.....
    Yes, but that is still well down on 2019, and not all those "Happy" voters would vote for Johnson. Some might be SNP in need of a distraction, and a laugh!

    I don't fear the return of Johnson as the final act in this farce of a clapped out government.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043
    WillG said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Tories have no serious opposition on the right to replace them.
    The loss of the Tory right is generally not a problem that the PCP allow to happen.

    It happened in the mid 90s, and it is happening again now. I think this time there are enough Redwoods in the tea-rooms to ensure Sunakism doesn't make it to the ballot box.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    edited February 2023
    It’s notable that of the countries being suggested as models for successful growth, most if not all have had broadly technocratic governments and a distinct lack of ideology in their politics.

    There are of course very bad examples of technocratic government too: Italy for example. Arguably now Japan. But there are few or no examples of successful economies based on political or economic radicalism, of the left or right. No slashers of the state, no socialist great leapers forward either. In the pursuit of human happiness radicalism is overrated.
  • Options

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Yup.

    Going back to that YouGov poll, "very happy" through to "meh" adds up to 39 percent, but that's exceeded by "very unhappy" alone on 43 percent. And that's before an general election campaign consisting of all of those resignation letters from early July 2022.

    It would be a rerun of 2019, except this time Boris would be playing the Corbyn role.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
    There you go again, making the mistake that everyone who dislikes Johnson mates. You understimate the enthusiasm he attracts.

    Very happy and Happy total 20%. Add the neither happy nor unhappy and you're at a whacking 38%.....

    Amongst over 65s, you're at over 50%.....
    Yes, but that is still well down on 2019, and not all those "Happy" voters would vote for Johnson. Some might be SNP in need of a distraction, and a laugh!

    I don't fear the return of Johnson as the final act in this farce of a clapped out government.
    I suggested he'd do better than Sunak. You said the polling doesn't support that.

    You're now changing the goalposts to the huge majority of 2019??!
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Labour Party survived two terms led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory Party survived being led by Iain Duncan Smith. The Tories will survive a Hunt Chancellorship.

    They'll lose after it, but the Party will be there to be rebuilt in Opposition.
    My yardstick is my father; a life long Tory voter. He won't vote Tory at the next election with declinists in charge.

    He once drove 3 hours home to vote in a PCC election.

    If my father is lost, the party is done for.
    Define "done for".

    If you mean will lose the election and go onto the Opposition benches, from where they will one day return to Government but it may take about 15 years to do so, then I agree.

    If you mean will disintegrate and not even be the Official Opposition, then I don't.

    Your father and I may not vote Tory, but enough others will to keep them the Official Opposition.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    On the motivation front I think a major issue the Tories have is they are still in the phase of wanting to hear only the things they like, a not uncommon problem for party members, MPs and strong supporters, but at the same time a significant chunk of them no longer believe the the things they like are popular/effective right now.

    So a major part will resist any attempt to change things, but another will resist any attempt to stay the same.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043
    edited February 2023

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Johnson is toxic and at least Sunak and Hunt have stabilised the economy after the dreadful Truss

    Sunak looks like he may well do a deal on NI despite Johnson efforts and apparently he has told Barclay to do a deal with the nurses

    There is time for sensible tax cuts, and I would expect to see them in 2024 but a lot depends on outside factors and not least the concern the Ukraine conflict could last not just months but years

    While the polls are terrible the public would be furious with Johnson and his allies if he was foisted on the nation again
    Those who don't vote Tory are still furious from last time. And Sunak is not enthusing them.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,438
    WillG said:



    The biggest difference between us and the Swiss is the fact that supply of low skilled migrants is much higher here than to Switzerland, because we are seen as less socially conformist, we have greater cultural presence and we speak English. The result is that Switzerland gets fewer low skilled migrants, requiring less subsidization and having less downward pressure on wages at the bottom.

    The social conformity also reduces anti-social behaviour, so you get less petty crime and welfare abuse.

    No. 31% of Swiss residents are first generation immigrants vs 17% in the UK, though there may be some difference in exact definitions:

    https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/population/migration-integration/by-migration-status.html
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/internationalmigrationenglandandwales/census2021

    Swiss cities are thoroughly diverse, though rural cantons are not - in much the same way that Godalming, where I live, is very monocultural (I've met exactly one non-white resident in 4 years).
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    I think this scenario is underpriced - him returning as LOTO. I see more chance of that than any change before the GE.
    He isn't going to retain his seat. He will need to do the chicken run to one of the safest seats in the country to be LOTO.

    In reality he faces the humiliation of being the first PM of modern times to lose his own seat at a GE.
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,271
    TimS said:

    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    EPG said:

    The super-cynical, Lee Kuan Yew-type viewpoint would be that the major Western countries have large populations that can rely on voting power or soft-heartedness to vote themselves an income, be they pensioners, the multi-generational urban poor, farmers, and so on. Then everyone else pays tax levels to fund them, and you get a society that organises itself on the basis that work won't be rewarded. Singapore and Switzerland both tried to avoid this by regulating admission to their countries, but they were starting as small trading spots, peripheries to a global-scale economy.

    Both Switzerland and Singapore are countries with a great deal of immigration, albeit ones that set it up so that immigrants have to pay their way.

    Taiwan might well be another country to copy economically (though one with poor demographics and real threat of conquest).

    These are all countries though that trade in high tech manufacturing, and to an extent financial services. It ain't obvious that the Red Wall wants that.
    Yes, Switzerland creams two million skilled Europeans, a little like London, and most of them are temporary (albeit the overall level is permanently high). The challenge for any country would be to out-compete Switzerland's terms if it wanted to do the same. E.g. radically cutting their welfare states to reduce the tax bill. You certainly can't do the same if you need to scale up the number, as a share of your labour force, to fifteen million. No, I don't think more referendums make this work.
    Not forgetting political neutrality, which over the course of several world and regional wars must add up in compound terms to a hell of a lot of extra economic stability and growth and lower public debt. Similar to Singapore in that respect.
    The economic effects of differential growth make one off costs (like wars) pretty meaningless once they are more than twenty years past.
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Marmite is right, Mortimer, but that implies that as well as motivating his supporters to come out and vote for him, he also motivates those who dislike him to come out and vote too.

    I think the chances of the next GE being an extinction event for the Tory Party are probably greater under Johnson. (It may surprise you to learn that I don't think this would be a particularly desireable outcome.)
    My feeling is that opposition is baked in, now. The anti Tory vote is mobilised.

    The problem with Sunak is he doesn't motivate the pro Tory vote either. At all.
    He is the only reason I would still vote for the party in 2024 and I expect there are very many more who recognise he was handed a Johnson/Truss poisoned chalice and he may just mitigate the defeat that is coming
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    Mortimer said:

    WillG said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Tories have no serious opposition on the right to replace them.
    The loss of the Tory right is generally not a problem that the PCP allow to happen.

    It happened in the mid 90s, and it is happening again now. I think this time there are enough Redwoods in the tea-rooms to ensure Sunakism doesn't make it to the ballot box.
    There aren't the 51% of Tory MPs to remove Sunak, if there were Boris would never have been forced out last summer in the first place
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    Boris returning is yet another PB Not Happening event
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Labour Party survived two terms led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory Party survived being led by Iain Duncan Smith. The Tories will survive a Hunt Chancellorship.

    They'll lose after it, but the Party will be there to be rebuilt in Opposition.
    My yardstick is my father; a life long Tory voter. He won't vote Tory at the next election with declinists in charge.

    He once drove 3 hours home to vote in a PCC election.

    If my father is lost, the party is done for.
    Define "done for".

    If you mean will lose the election and go onto the Opposition benches, from where they will one day return to Government but it may take about 15 years to do so, then I agree.

    If you mean will disintegrate and not even be the Official Opposition, then I don't.

    Your father and I may not vote Tory, but enough others will to keep them the Official Opposition.
    '97 was almost an ELE. Fewer than 125 MPs and I think the party disintegrates. Local and Indy parties start to succeed at council level. Fewer strong candidates think its worth standing as a Tory MP.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    TimS said:

    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    EPG said:

    The super-cynical, Lee Kuan Yew-type viewpoint would be that the major Western countries have large populations that can rely on voting power or soft-heartedness to vote themselves an income, be they pensioners, the multi-generational urban poor, farmers, and so on. Then everyone else pays tax levels to fund them, and you get a society that organises itself on the basis that work won't be rewarded. Singapore and Switzerland both tried to avoid this by regulating admission to their countries, but they were starting as small trading spots, peripheries to a global-scale economy.

    Both Switzerland and Singapore are countries with a great deal of immigration, albeit ones that set it up so that immigrants have to pay their way.

    Taiwan might well be another country to copy economically (though one with poor demographics and real threat of conquest).

    These are all countries though that trade in high tech manufacturing, and to an extent financial services. It ain't obvious that the Red Wall wants that.
    Yes, Switzerland creams two million skilled Europeans, a little like London, and most of them are temporary (albeit the overall level is permanently high). The challenge for any country would be to out-compete Switzerland's terms if it wanted to do the same. E.g. radically cutting their welfare states to reduce the tax bill. You certainly can't do the same if you need to scale up the number, as a share of your labour force, to fifteen million. No, I don't think more referendums make this work.
    Not forgetting political neutrality, which over the course of several world and regional wars must add up in compound terms to a hell of a lot of extra economic stability and growth and lower public debt. Similar to Singapore in that respect.
    You'd think so, but the Netherlands has done less well but okay given its circumstances, and it lost a giant empire and was occupied and subjected to famine by the Germans a few decades ago. It seems that the truly long-term factors in economic success are even more profound than that.

    And of course, to the extent Swiss success arises because it opted out of maintaining the global order it exports into, that's not a replicable strategy for countries of the UK's scale.

    I don't think Singapore is a very stable country. Substantially it has been run by one family for a few decades, who have successfully repressed dissent on previous occasions which is no guarantee it will keep working. And as an economic going concern it relies on China being neither trustworthy to domestic investors nor rapacious in its region. Singapore is more like the one time you roll three dice and get three sixes.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    Mortimer said:

    WillG said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Tories have no serious opposition on the right to replace them.
    The loss of the Tory right is generally not a problem that the PCP allow to happen.

    It happened in the mid 90s, and it is happening again now. I think this time there are enough Redwoods in the tea-rooms to ensure Sunakism doesn't make it to the ballot box.
    Let's hope so. The dismal decline manager and the assistant dismal decline manager have outstayed their welcome. I would like a peaceful handover with Rishi remaining in the Cabinet. Perhaps Hunt being made ambassador to the PRC.
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,271

    WillG said:



    The biggest difference between us and the Swiss is the fact that supply of low skilled migrants is much higher here than to Switzerland, because we are seen as less socially conformist, we have greater cultural presence and we speak English. The result is that Switzerland gets fewer low skilled migrants, requiring less subsidization and having less downward pressure on wages at the bottom.

    The social conformity also reduces anti-social behaviour, so you get less petty crime and welfare abuse.

    No. 31% of Swiss residents are first generation immigrants vs 17% in the UK, though there may be some difference in exact definitions:

    https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/population/migration-integration/by-migration-status.html
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/internationalmigrationenglandandwales/census2021

    Swiss cities are thoroughly diverse, though rural cantons are not - in much the same way that Godalming, where I live, is very monocultural (I've met exactly one non-white resident in 4 years).
    Again, entirely ignoring the words "low skilled". Immigrants to Switzerland are high skilled Western Europeans.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Yup.

    Going back to that YouGov poll, "very happy" through to "meh" adds up to 39 percent, but that's exceeded by "very unhappy" alone on 43 percent. And that's before an general election campaign consisting of all of those resignation letters from early July 2022.

    It would be a rerun of 2019, except this time Boris would be playing the Corbyn role.
    At present, Rishi, who is seemingly adored by the 'centrist Dads of PB', can only dream of an MRP that puts him on Labour 2019 levels....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    Well it will certainly survive a Hunt chancellorship better than it was surviving a Kwarteng chancellorship
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
    There you go again, making the mistake that everyone who dislikes Johnson mates. You understimate the enthusiasm he attracts.

    Very happy and Happy total 20%. Add the neither happy nor unhappy and you're at a whacking 38%.....

    Amongst over 65s, you're at over 50%.....
    Yes, but that is still well down on 2019, and not all those "Happy" voters would vote for Johnson. Some might be SNP in need of a distraction, and a laugh!

    I don't fear the return of Johnson as the final act in this farce of a clapped out government.
    I suggested he'd do better than Sunak. You said the polling doesn't support that.

    You're now changing the goalposts to the huge majority of 2019??!
    42% of Con voters being either fairly or very unhappy at his return would suggest that his polling would be no better than Sunaks, and quite likely worse.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Marmite is right, Mortimer, but that implies that as well as motivating his supporters to come out and vote for him, he also motivates those who dislike him to come out and vote too.

    I think the chances of the next GE being an extinction event for the Tory Party are probably greater under Johnson. (It may surprise you to learn that I don't think this would be a particularly desireable outcome.)
    My feeling is that opposition is baked in, now. The anti Tory vote is mobilised.

    The problem with Sunak is he doesn't motivate the pro Tory vote either. At all.
    He is the only reason I would still vote for the party in 2024 and I expect there are very many more who recognise he was handed a Johnson/Truss poisoned chalice and he may just mitigate the defeat that is coming
    He is on 22% in the polls. I don't see how it isn't obvious what an electoral dud he is....
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Labour Party survived two terms led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory Party survived being led by Iain Duncan Smith. The Tories will survive a Hunt Chancellorship.

    They'll lose after it, but the Party will be there to be rebuilt in Opposition.
    My yardstick is my father; a life long Tory voter. He won't vote Tory at the next election with declinists in charge.

    He once drove 3 hours home to vote in a PCC election.

    If my father is lost, the party is done for.
    Define "done for".

    If you mean will lose the election and go onto the Opposition benches, from where they will one day return to Government but it may take about 15 years to do so, then I agree.

    If you mean will disintegrate and not even be the Official Opposition, then I don't.

    Your father and I may not vote Tory, but enough others will to keep them the Official Opposition.
    '97 was almost an ELE. Fewer than 125 MPs and I think the party disintegrates. Local and Indy parties start to succeed at council level. Fewer strong candidates think its worth standing as a Tory MP.
    Not unless Starmer abolishes First Past the Post.

    If he does, all bets are off.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,457

    Boris returning is yet another PB Not Happening event

    Didn’t you say him being forced out was one of those events?
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043
    edited February 2023
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
    There you go again, making the mistake that everyone who dislikes Johnson mates. You understimate the enthusiasm he attracts.

    Very happy and Happy total 20%. Add the neither happy nor unhappy and you're at a whacking 38%.....

    Amongst over 65s, you're at over 50%.....
    Yes, but that is still well down on 2019, and not all those "Happy" voters would vote for Johnson. Some might be SNP in need of a distraction, and a laugh!

    I don't fear the return of Johnson as the final act in this farce of a clapped out government.
    I suggested he'd do better than Sunak. You said the polling doesn't support that.

    You're now changing the goalposts to the huge majority of 2019??!
    42% of Con voters being either fairly or very unhappy at his return would suggest that his polling would be no better than Sunaks, and quite likely worse.
    That poll literally shows more Con voters would be happy than unhappy. You're cherry picking.

    I want to declare an interest here, too. I don't want Johnson to return. But I also don't want Declinist-Sunakism
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Marmite is right, Mortimer, but that implies that as well as motivating his supporters to come out and vote for him, he also motivates those who dislike him to come out and vote too.

    I think the chances of the next GE being an extinction event for the Tory Party are probably greater under Johnson. (It may surprise you to learn that I don't think this would be a particularly desireable outcome.)
    My feeling is that opposition is baked in, now. The anti Tory vote is mobilised.

    The problem with Sunak is he doesn't motivate the pro Tory vote either. At all.
    He is the only reason I would still vote for the party in 2024 and I expect there are very many more who recognise he was handed a Johnson/Truss poisoned chalice and he may just mitigate the defeat that is coming
    He is on 22% in the polls. I don't see how it isn't obvious what an electoral dud he is....
    The conservative party cannot foist Johnson on the nation again without annihilation at the next GE
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043
    edited February 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    Well it will certainly survive a Hunt chancellorship better than it was surviving a Kwarteng chancellorship
    I had my best ever business month under Kwarteng....!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    edited February 2023
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Labour Party survived two terms led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory Party survived being led by Iain Duncan Smith. The Tories will survive a Hunt Chancellorship.

    They'll lose after it, but the Party will be there to be rebuilt in Opposition.
    My yardstick is my father; a life long Tory voter. He won't vote Tory at the next election with declinists in charge.

    He once drove 3 hours home to vote in a PCC election.

    If my father is lost, the party is done for.
    Define "done for".

    If you mean will lose the election and go onto the Opposition benches, from where they will one day return to Government but it may take about 15 years to do so, then I agree.

    If you mean will disintegrate and not even be the Official Opposition, then I don't.

    Your father and I may not vote Tory, but enough others will to keep them the Official Opposition.
    '97 was almost an ELE. Fewer than 125 MPs and I think the party disintegrates. Local and Indy parties start to succeed at council level. Fewer strong candidates think its worth standing as a Tory MP.
    Independents already elected 1,045 councillors in 2019 and Residents' Association another 119 last time the seats up in May were up.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    There weren't that great candidates seeking to be Tory MPs in 2001 either
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Marmite is right, Mortimer, but that implies that as well as motivating his supporters to come out and vote for him, he also motivates those who dislike him to come out and vote too.

    I think the chances of the next GE being an extinction event for the Tory Party are probably greater under Johnson. (It may surprise you to learn that I don't think this would be a particularly desireable outcome.)
    My feeling is that opposition is baked in, now. The anti Tory vote is mobilised.

    The problem with Sunak is he doesn't motivate the pro Tory vote either. At all.
    He is the only reason I would still vote for the party in 2024 and I expect there are very many more who recognise he was handed a Johnson/Truss poisoned chalice and he may just mitigate the defeat that is coming
    He is on 22% in the polls. I don't see how it isn't obvious what an electoral dud he is....
    The conservative party cannot foist Johnson on the nation again without annihilation at the next GE
    The Tory party is currently on 22% in the polls. That is annihilation.
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,271
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Marmite is right, Mortimer, but that implies that as well as motivating his supporters to come out and vote for him, he also motivates those who dislike him to come out and vote too.

    I think the chances of the next GE being an extinction event for the Tory Party are probably greater under Johnson. (It may surprise you to learn that I don't think this would be a particularly desireable outcome.)
    My feeling is that opposition is baked in, now. The anti Tory vote is mobilised.

    The problem with Sunak is he doesn't motivate the pro Tory vote either. At all.
    He is the only reason I would still vote for the party in 2024 and I expect there are very many more who recognise he was handed a Johnson/Truss poisoned chalice and he may just mitigate the defeat that is coming
    He is on 22% in the polls. I don't see how it isn't obvious what an electoral dud he is....
    His party is at 22% in one poll, in the high 20s overall. People are done with the Tories, regardless of the leader. The question is how quickly they can be seen as a credible potential government in opposition.
  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Marmite is right, Mortimer, but that implies that as well as motivating his supporters to come out and vote for him, he also motivates those who dislike him to come out and vote too.

    I think the chances of the next GE being an extinction event for the Tory Party are probably greater under Johnson. (It may surprise you to learn that I don't think this would be a particularly desireable outcome.)
    My feeling is that opposition is baked in, now. The anti Tory vote is mobilised.

    The problem with Sunak is he doesn't motivate the pro Tory vote either. At all.
    He is the only reason I would still vote for the party in 2024 and I expect there are very many more who recognise he was handed a Johnson/Truss poisoned chalice and he may just mitigate the defeat that is coming
    He is on 22% in the polls. I don't see how it isn't obvious what an electoral dud he is....
    The conservative party cannot foist Johnson on the nation again without annihilation at the next GE
    The Conservative Party cannot foist Sunak on the nation without annihilation at the next GE.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    No doubt Boris and the IEA would pin me as a "doomer" for ascribing economic success to deep and structural factors in the organisation of societies.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Yup.

    Going back to that YouGov poll, "very happy" through to "meh" adds up to 39 percent, but that's exceeded by "very unhappy" alone on 43 percent. And that's before an general election campaign consisting of all of those resignation letters from early July 2022.

    It would be a rerun of 2019, except this time Boris would be playing the Corbyn role.
    At present, Rishi, who is seemingly adored by the 'centrist Dads of PB', can only dream of an MRP that puts him on Labour 2019 levels....
    Which "Centrist Dads of PB" are these?

    Is there anyone here who supports and likes Sunak (apart from @HYUFD, who is always loyal to the leader, until they are replaced).

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Labour Party survived two terms led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory Party survived being led by Iain Duncan Smith. The Tories will survive a Hunt Chancellorship.

    They'll lose after it, but the Party will be there to be rebuilt in Opposition.
    My yardstick is my father; a life long Tory voter. He won't vote Tory at the next election with declinists in charge.

    He once drove 3 hours home to vote in a PCC election.

    If my father is lost, the party is done for.
    Define "done for".

    If you mean will lose the election and go onto the Opposition benches, from where they will one day return to Government but it may take about 15 years to do so, then I agree.

    If you mean will disintegrate and not even be the Official Opposition, then I don't.

    Your father and I may not vote Tory, but enough others will to keep them the Official Opposition.
    '97 was almost an ELE. Fewer than 125 MPs and I think the party disintegrates. Local and Indy parties start to succeed at council level. Fewer strong candidates think its worth standing as a Tory MP.
    Not unless Starmer abolishes First Past the Post.

    If he does, all bets are off.
    The Tories might actually win more seats under PR than FPTP on the worst polls for them now.

    RefUK would also win seats under PR as would a Corbynite Party (albeit Corbyn might hold Islington North as an Independent even under FPTP)
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
    There you go again, making the mistake that everyone who dislikes Johnson mates. You understimate the enthusiasm he attracts.

    Very happy and Happy total 20%. Add the neither happy nor unhappy and you're at a whacking 38%.....

    Amongst over 65s, you're at over 50%.....
    Yes, but that is still well down on 2019, and not all those "Happy" voters would vote for Johnson. Some might be SNP in need of a distraction, and a laugh!

    I don't fear the return of Johnson as the final act in this farce of a clapped out government.
    I suggested he'd do better than Sunak. You said the polling doesn't support that.

    You're now changing the goalposts to the huge majority of 2019??!
    42% of Con voters being either fairly or very unhappy at his return would suggest that his polling would be no better than Sunaks, and quite likely worse.
    That poll literally shows more Con voters would be happy than unhappy. You're cherry picking.

    I want to declare an interest here, too. I don't want Johnson to return. But I also don't want Declinist-Sunakism
    I, personally, think you are underestimating the latent support for Sunak. We see it on here with Big G and Casino and (sometimes) Max.

    These are long term Tory voters who recognise I think that the experiments of the last several years have been disastrous but can’t and won’t make the step toward Labour (or Lib Dem).

    Also, TimS posted a very interesting analysis of polling a day or so ago which basically said we should absolutely expect a narrowing in due course such that Rishi can scrape a respectable rather than humiliating loss.

    However, what is very useful about your post is the clear existence of animosity toward Rishi from a sizeable chunk of Tory support.
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Labour Party survived two terms led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory Party survived being led by Iain Duncan Smith. The Tories will survive a Hunt Chancellorship.

    They'll lose after it, but the Party will be there to be rebuilt in Opposition.
    My yardstick is my father; a life long Tory voter. He won't vote Tory at the next election with declinists in charge.

    He once drove 3 hours home to vote in a PCC election.

    If my father is lost, the party is done for.
    It's quite possible that it's too late anyway.

    You know how light takes a long time to travel across space? The red giant Betelgeuse might already have exploded into a supernova. If it's happened in the last 500 years, the light from that is racing towards us, but it hasn't arrived yet. One reading of the stars for the Conservatives is that they're in a similar position. The accumulation of stuff over 12 years and the unpleasant stuff still to hit (the £400 energy support payments stop for most of us soon) is going to require something miraculous to recover from. The time lag between announcing a policy and it affecting people's lives is so long that the decisions which will affect the 2024 election have largely been taken.

    (Echoes of covid policy and that 10-14 day lag between doing something and it showing up in the case figures.)

    If that's the case, all the government can do is decide what sort of legacy they want to leave their sucessor.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    edited February 2023

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Johnson is toxic and at least Sunak and Hunt have stabilised the economy after the dreadful Truss

    Sunak looks like he may well do a deal on NI despite Johnson efforts and apparently he has told Barclay to do a deal with the nurses

    There is time for sensible tax cuts, and I would expect to see them in 2024 but a lot depends on outside factors and not least the concern the Ukraine conflict could last not just months but years

    While the polls are terrible the public would be furious with Johnson and his allies if he was foisted on the nation again
    Hi @Big_G_NorthWales.
    I was unkind to you last night when you were trying to help.
    Please accept my apologies. I was annoyed by something else. I value your contributions even when I vehemently disagree.
    Fault is entirely mine.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
    There you go again, making the mistake that everyone who dislikes Johnson mates. You understimate the enthusiasm he attracts.

    Very happy and Happy total 20%. Add the neither happy nor unhappy and you're at a whacking 38%.....

    Amongst over 65s, you're at over 50%.....
    Yes, but that is still well down on 2019, and not all those "Happy" voters would vote for Johnson. Some might be SNP in need of a distraction, and a laugh!

    I don't fear the return of Johnson as the final act in this farce of a clapped out government.
    I suggested he'd do better than Sunak. You said the polling doesn't support that.

    You're now changing the goalposts to the huge majority of 2019??!
    42% of Con voters being either fairly or very unhappy at his return would suggest that his polling would be no better than Sunaks, and quite likely worse.
    That poll literally shows more Con voters would be happy than unhappy. You're cherry picking.

    I want to declare an interest here, too. I don't want Johnson to return. But I also don't want Declinist-Sunakism
    I, personally, think you are underestimating the latent support for Sunak. We see it on here with Big G and Casino and (sometimes) Max.

    These are long term Tory voters who recognise I think that the experiments of the last several years have been disastrous but can’t and won’t make the step toward Labour (or Lib Dem).

    Also, TimS posted a very interesting analysis of polling a day or so ago which basically said we should absolutely expect a narrowing in due course such that Rishi can scrape a respectable rather than humiliating loss.

    However, what is very useful about your post is the clear existence of animosity toward Rishi from a sizeable chunk of Tory support.
    From a local party POV, I'd say attendance at events is down 2/3rds since Sunak took power.
  • Options
    NEW: Humza Yousaf accepts there is no 'sustained majority' for independence.

    SNP leadership candidate says 'anybody that comes to this campaign' suggesting 'we can get independence tomorrow' is 'not being honest'.


    https://twitter.com/petermacmahon/status/1628513186105245718?s=20
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,271
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Yup.

    Going back to that YouGov poll, "very happy" through to "meh" adds up to 39 percent, but that's exceeded by "very unhappy" alone on 43 percent. And that's before an general election campaign consisting of all of those resignation letters from early July 2022.

    It would be a rerun of 2019, except this time Boris would be playing the Corbyn role.
    At present, Rishi, who is seemingly adored by the 'centrist Dads of PB', can only dream of an MRP that puts him on Labour 2019 levels....
    Which "Centrist Dads of PB" are these?

    Is there anyone here who supports and likes Sunak (apart from @HYUFD, who is always loyal to the leader, until they are replaced).

    I support and like Sunak, while finding him insufficiently bold and imaginative.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
    There you go again, making the mistake that everyone who dislikes Johnson mates. You understimate the enthusiasm he attracts.

    Very happy and Happy total 20%. Add the neither happy nor unhappy and you're at a whacking 38%.....

    Amongst over 65s, you're at over 50%.....
    Yes, but that is still well down on 2019, and not all those "Happy" voters would vote for Johnson. Some might be SNP in need of a distraction, and a laugh!

    I don't fear the return of Johnson as the final act in this farce of a clapped out government.
    I suggested he'd do better than Sunak. You said the polling doesn't support that.

    You're now changing the goalposts to the huge majority of 2019??!
    42% of Con voters being either fairly or very unhappy at his return would suggest that his polling would be no better than Sunaks, and quite likely worse.
    That poll literally shows more Con voters would be happy than unhappy. You're cherry picking.

    I want to declare an interest here, too. I don't want Johnson to return. But I also don't want Declinist-Sunakism
    So barely half of Conservative voters would be happy? That ain't great voter retention.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Yup.

    Going back to that YouGov poll, "very happy" through to "meh" adds up to 39 percent, but that's exceeded by "very unhappy" alone on 43 percent. And that's before an general election campaign consisting of all of those resignation letters from early July 2022.

    It would be a rerun of 2019, except this time Boris would be playing the Corbyn role.
    At present, Rishi, who is seemingly adored by the 'centrist Dads of PB', can only dream of an MRP that puts him on Labour 2019 levels....
    Which "Centrist Dads of PB" are these?

    Is there anyone here who supports and likes Sunak (apart from @HYUFD, who is always loyal to the leader, until they are replaced).

    Normally, though even I couldn't manage to be that loyal to Truss
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Labour Party survived two terms led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory Party survived being led by Iain Duncan Smith. The Tories will survive a Hunt Chancellorship.

    They'll lose after it, but the Party will be there to be rebuilt in Opposition.
    My yardstick is my father; a life long Tory voter. He won't vote Tory at the next election with declinists in charge.

    He once drove 3 hours home to vote in a PCC election.

    If my father is lost, the party is done for.
    Define "done for".

    If you mean will lose the election and go onto the Opposition benches, from where they will one day return to Government but it may take about 15 years to do so, then I agree.

    If you mean will disintegrate and not even be the Official Opposition, then I don't.

    Your father and I may not vote Tory, but enough others will to keep them the Official Opposition.
    '97 was almost an ELE. Fewer than 125 MPs and I think the party disintegrates. Local and Indy parties start to succeed at council level. Fewer strong candidates think its worth standing as a Tory MP.
    Not unless Starmer abolishes First Past the Post.

    If he does, all bets are off.
    The Tories might actually win more seats under PR than FPTP on the worst polls for them now.

    RefUK would also win seats under PR as would a Corbynite Party (albeit Corbyn might hold Islington North as an Independent even under FPTP)
    Irrelevant. FPTP means that parties suffer when they do badly, which isn't a bad thing, but the tide will turn and they will come back again.

    In Canada the Conservative Party got reduced to literally just 2 seats in 1993. Within 13 years Canada had a Conservative PM again in the form of Steven Harper.

    The disparate Conservative parties united to recreate a Conservative Party that could win an election, within third years of virtually total annihilation.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    edited February 2023
    WillG said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Marmite is right, Mortimer, but that implies that as well as motivating his supporters to come out and vote for him, he also motivates those who dislike him to come out and vote too.

    I think the chances of the next GE being an extinction event for the Tory Party are probably greater under Johnson. (It may surprise you to learn that I don't think this would be a particularly desireable outcome.)
    My feeling is that opposition is baked in, now. The anti Tory vote is mobilised.

    The problem with Sunak is he doesn't motivate the pro Tory vote either. At all.
    He is the only reason I would still vote for the party in 2024 and I expect there are very many more who recognise he was handed a Johnson/Truss poisoned chalice and he may just mitigate the defeat that is coming
    He is on 22% in the polls. I don't see how it isn't obvious what an electoral dud he is....
    His party is at 22% in one poll, in the high 20s overall. People are done with the Tories, regardless of the leader. The question is how quickly they can be seen as a credible potential government in opposition.
    A lot quicker if they act as a purposeful Government now. Which they aren't. The amount of excuses made here for Sunak is ridiculous. 'People still remember Truss'. 'Truss wrote an article'. 'Boris lies'. 'Lee Anderson and Suella Braverman are gross'. - Everything under the sun except the obvious - 'people are skint and cold, having just seen their living standards nuked, and the Government isn't even trying to find any solutions.'
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Labour Party survived two terms led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory Party survived being led by Iain Duncan Smith. The Tories will survive a Hunt Chancellorship.

    They'll lose after it, but the Party will be there to be rebuilt in Opposition.
    My yardstick is my father; a life long Tory voter. He won't vote Tory at the next election with declinists in charge.

    He once drove 3 hours home to vote in a PCC election.

    If my father is lost, the party is done for.
    It's quite possible that it's too late anyway.

    You know how light takes a long time to travel across space? The red giant Betelgeuse might already have exploded into a supernova. If it's happened in the last 500 years, the light from that is racing towards us, but it hasn't arrived yet. One reading of the stars for the Conservatives is that they're in a similar position. The accumulation of stuff over 12 years and the unpleasant stuff still to hit (the £400 energy support payments stop for most of us soon) is going to require something miraculous to recover from. The time lag between announcing a policy and it affecting people's lives is so long that the decisions which will affect the 2024 election have largely been taken.

    (Echoes of covid policy and that 10-14 day lag between doing something and it showing up in the case figures.)

    If that's the case, all the government can do is decide what sort of legacy they want to leave their sucessor.
    That is a lot words to define political declinism...

    As an aside, I'm thrilled the £400 energy support is stopping. The Govt have been paying my entire electric bill over the winter. And now my (and others') Corp taxes are going up nigh on 30% to pay for it.....
  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
    There you go again, making the mistake that everyone who dislikes Johnson mates. You understimate the enthusiasm he attracts.

    Very happy and Happy total 20%. Add the neither happy nor unhappy and you're at a whacking 38%.....

    Amongst over 65s, you're at over 50%.....
    Yes, but that is still well down on 2019, and not all those "Happy" voters would vote for Johnson. Some might be SNP in need of a distraction, and a laugh!

    I don't fear the return of Johnson as the final act in this farce of a clapped out government.
    I suggested he'd do better than Sunak. You said the polling doesn't support that.

    You're now changing the goalposts to the huge majority of 2019??!
    42% of Con voters being either fairly or very unhappy at his return would suggest that his polling would be no better than Sunaks, and quite likely worse.
    That poll literally shows more Con voters would be happy than unhappy. You're cherry picking.

    I want to declare an interest here, too. I don't want Johnson to return. But I also don't want Declinist-Sunakism
    I, personally, think you are underestimating the latent support for Sunak. We see it on here with Big G and Casino and (sometimes) Max.

    These are long term Tory voters who recognise I think that the experiments of the last several years have been disastrous but can’t and won’t make the step toward Labour (or Lib Dem).

    Also, TimS posted a very interesting analysis of polling a day or so ago which basically said we should absolutely expect a narrowing in due course such that Rishi can scrape a respectable rather than humiliating loss.

    However, what is very useful about your post is the clear existence of animosity toward Rishi from a sizeable chunk of Tory support.
    I will vote lib dem if Johnson comes back as will my wife

    He is detested in our household and along with Truss has 'ratnered the brand'
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    edited February 2023
    WillG said:

    TimS said:

    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    EPG said:

    The super-cynical, Lee Kuan Yew-type viewpoint would be that the major Western countries have large populations that can rely on voting power or soft-heartedness to vote themselves an income, be they pensioners, the multi-generational urban poor, farmers, and so on. Then everyone else pays tax levels to fund them, and you get a society that organises itself on the basis that work won't be rewarded. Singapore and Switzerland both tried to avoid this by regulating admission to their countries, but they were starting as small trading spots, peripheries to a global-scale economy.

    Both Switzerland and Singapore are countries with a great deal of immigration, albeit ones that set it up so that immigrants have to pay their way.

    Taiwan might well be another country to copy economically (though one with poor demographics and real threat of conquest).

    These are all countries though that trade in high tech manufacturing, and to an extent financial services. It ain't obvious that the Red Wall wants that.
    Yes, Switzerland creams two million skilled Europeans, a little like London, and most of them are temporary (albeit the overall level is permanently high). The challenge for any country would be to out-compete Switzerland's terms if it wanted to do the same. E.g. radically cutting their welfare states to reduce the tax bill. You certainly can't do the same if you need to scale up the number, as a share of your labour force, to fifteen million. No, I don't think more referendums make this work.
    Not forgetting political neutrality, which over the course of several world and regional wars must add up in compound terms to a hell of a lot of extra economic stability and growth and lower public debt. Similar to Singapore in that respect.
    The economic effects of differential growth make one off costs (like wars) pretty meaningless once they are more than twenty years past.
    Neutrality as entrenched as Switzerland’s though means a continuous long term benefit, both in reduced government spending on defence during peacetime and the safe haven effect driving capital inflows during times of conflict (or even geopolitical tension). So it’s not just about foregoing the immediate costs of war.

    Georgia is an interesting example of the safe haven effect during the current war: all the capital flows out of Russia have driven a property boom and made the Lari the best performing currency of 2022 (annoyingly as I’m going there this summer holiday).
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Marmite is right, Mortimer, but that implies that as well as motivating his supporters to come out and vote for him, he also motivates those who dislike him to come out and vote too.

    I think the chances of the next GE being an extinction event for the Tory Party are probably greater under Johnson. (It may surprise you to learn that I don't think this would be a particularly desireable outcome.)
    My feeling is that opposition is baked in, now. The anti Tory vote is mobilised.

    The problem with Sunak is he doesn't motivate the pro Tory vote either. At all.
    He is the only reason I would still vote for the party in 2024 and I expect there are very many more who recognise he was handed a Johnson/Truss poisoned chalice and he may just mitigate the defeat that is coming
    He is on 22% in the polls. I don't see how it isn't obvious what an electoral dud he is....
    The conservative party cannot foist Johnson on the nation again without annihilation at the next GE
    The Tory party is currently on 22% in the polls. That is annihilation.
    No, the 14% the Tories were on in the worst poll under Truss was annihilation, literally zero seats. Even the worst polls under Rishi now have the Tories on about 50 seats, the best polls under Rishi have the Tories on 150-200 seats
  • Options
    WillG said:

    WillG said:



    The biggest difference between us and the Swiss is the fact that supply of low skilled migrants is much higher here than to Switzerland, because we are seen as less socially conformist, we have greater cultural presence and we speak English. The result is that Switzerland gets fewer low skilled migrants, requiring less subsidization and having less downward pressure on wages at the bottom.

    The social conformity also reduces anti-social behaviour, so you get less petty crime and welfare abuse.

    No. 31% of Swiss residents are first generation immigrants vs 17% in the UK, though there may be some difference in exact definitions:

    https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/population/migration-integration/by-migration-status.html
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/internationalmigrationenglandandwales/census2021

    Swiss cities are thoroughly diverse, though rural cantons are not - in much the same way that Godalming, where I live, is very monocultural (I've met exactly one non-white resident in 4 years).
    Again, entirely ignoring the words "low skilled". Immigrants to Switzerland are high skilled Western Europeans.
    High skilled Western Europeans - aren't they the ones we said weren't welcome after 2016?
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Johnson is toxic and at least Sunak and Hunt have stabilised the economy after the dreadful Truss

    Sunak looks like he may well do a deal on NI despite Johnson efforts and apparently he has told Barclay to do a deal with the nurses

    There is time for sensible tax cuts, and I would expect to see them in 2024 but a lot depends on outside factors and not least the concern the Ukraine conflict could last not just months but years

    While the polls are terrible the public would be furious with Johnson and his allies if he was foisted on the nation again
    Hi @Big_G_NorthWales.
    I was unkind to you last night when you were trying to help.
    Please accept my apologies. I was annoyed by something else. I value your contributions even when I vehemently disagree.
    Fault is entirely mine.
    How kind of you and there is no need to apologise

    All the best
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    This is one of the most interesting mini-debates PB has had in…a long time.
  • Options

    WillG said:

    WillG said:



    The biggest difference between us and the Swiss is the fact that supply of low skilled migrants is much higher here than to Switzerland, because we are seen as less socially conformist, we have greater cultural presence and we speak English. The result is that Switzerland gets fewer low skilled migrants, requiring less subsidization and having less downward pressure on wages at the bottom.

    The social conformity also reduces anti-social behaviour, so you get less petty crime and welfare abuse.

    No. 31% of Swiss residents are first generation immigrants vs 17% in the UK, though there may be some difference in exact definitions:

    https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/population/migration-integration/by-migration-status.html
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/internationalmigrationenglandandwales/census2021

    Swiss cities are thoroughly diverse, though rural cantons are not - in much the same way that Godalming, where I live, is very monocultural (I've met exactly one non-white resident in 4 years).
    Again, entirely ignoring the words "low skilled". Immigrants to Switzerland are high skilled Western Europeans.
    High skilled Western Europeans - aren't they the ones we said weren't welcome after 2016?
    QTWAIN.

    High skilled Western Europeans absolutely are welcome to get a visa post-2016.

    What there's no longer carte blanche for is unskilled workers to get a bus over without a visa.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
    There you go again, making the mistake that everyone who dislikes Johnson mates. You understimate the enthusiasm he attracts.

    Very happy and Happy total 20%. Add the neither happy nor unhappy and you're at a whacking 38%.....

    Amongst over 65s, you're at over 50%.....
    Yes, but that is still well down on 2019, and not all those "Happy" voters would vote for Johnson. Some might be SNP in need of a distraction, and a laugh!

    I don't fear the return of Johnson as the final act in this farce of a clapped out government.
    I suggested he'd do better than Sunak. You said the polling doesn't support that.

    You're now changing the goalposts to the huge majority of 2019??!
    42% of Con voters being either fairly or very unhappy at his return would suggest that his polling would be no better than Sunaks, and quite likely worse.
    That poll literally shows more Con voters would be happy than unhappy. You're cherry picking.

    I want to declare an interest here, too. I don't want Johnson to return. But I also don't want Declinist-Sunakism
    I, personally, think you are underestimating the latent support for Sunak. We see it on here with Big G and Casino and (sometimes) Max.

    These are long term Tory voters who recognise I think that the experiments of the last several years have been disastrous but can’t and won’t make the step toward Labour (or Lib Dem).

    Also, TimS posted a very interesting analysis of polling a day or so ago which basically said we should absolutely expect a narrowing in due course such that Rishi can scrape a respectable rather than humiliating loss.

    However, what is very useful about your post is the clear existence of animosity toward Rishi from a sizeable chunk of Tory support.
    I think (and the Jan figures on tax reciepts show) that Sunak and Hunt are being unnecessarily tight on government spending, but the narrow road to a Con revival before the next GE is all about re-establishing economic credibility and competence.

    I don't think it will work in time, but it is the Tories only chance.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    Reading all the commentary on here and elsewhere, I get the sense that Scottish independence is the furthest away it's been since I've been interested in politics.

    I'd guess it doesn't happen now till after another Labour government at Holyrood. I think the SNP have finally lost their magic.

    It's been a fun PB meme of forever predicting an SNP collapse, but this all feels quite anti-climactic, almost sad. Whatever your view on independence, it was quite exciting having that option on the table.

  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733

    I'm not sure if it's been covered on here already but Kemi Badenoch is very impressive here. Her sword vs shield analogy is a clever piece of rhetoric.

    https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1628307269698961409

    Ooft. Hope he enjoys his new arsehole.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,043

    This is one of the most interesting mini-debates PB has had in…a long time.

    I agree. I'm really surprised how the lack of positivity towards Rishi amongst the Tory party membership isn't cutting through as a good proxy for the country. This is the membership who selected the most successful Tory leader for decades. They're dismissed as a group, by the media-westminster complex who do not get them, but their last choice to face an election actually won, and won big.....
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Labour Party survived two terms led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory Party survived being led by Iain Duncan Smith. The Tories will survive a Hunt Chancellorship.

    They'll lose after it, but the Party will be there to be rebuilt in Opposition.
    My yardstick is my father; a life long Tory voter. He won't vote Tory at the next election with declinists in charge.

    He once drove 3 hours home to vote in a PCC election.

    If my father is lost, the party is done for.
    It's quite possible that it's too late anyway.

    You know how light takes a long time to travel across space? The red giant Betelgeuse might already have exploded into a supernova. If it's happened in the last 500 years, the light from that is racing towards us, but it hasn't arrived yet. One reading of the stars for the Conservatives is that they're in a similar position. The accumulation of stuff over 12 years and the unpleasant stuff still to hit (the £400 energy support payments stop for most of us soon) is going to require something miraculous to recover from. The time lag between announcing a policy and it affecting people's lives is so long that the decisions which will affect the 2024 election have largely been taken.

    (Echoes of covid policy and that 10-14 day lag between doing something and it showing up in the case figures.)

    If that's the case, all the government can do is decide what sort of legacy they want to leave their sucessor.
    That is a lot words to define political declinism...

    As an aside, I'm thrilled the £400 energy support is stopping. The Govt have been paying my entire electric bill over the winter. And now my (and others') Corp taxes are going up nigh on 30% to pay for it.....
    Stopping the energy support for everyone is definitely the right thing to do. But it's also going to be a few quid less going into people's bank accounts, which isn't likely to be popular.
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    Eabhal said:

    Reading all the commentary on here and elsewhere, I get the sense that Scottish independence is the furthest away it's been since I've been interested in politics.

    I'd guess it doesn't happen now till after another Labour government at Holyrood. I think the SNP have finally lost their magic.

    It's been a fun PB meme of forever predicting an SNP collapse, but this all feels quite anti-climactic, almost sad. Whatever your view on independence, it was quite exciting having that option on the table.

    I think Scottish independence will happen next time the Tories are back in office.

    Which will be a fair bit longer than a generation since 2014 by the time that happens.
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    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Marmite is right, Mortimer, but that implies that as well as motivating his supporters to come out and vote for him, he also motivates those who dislike him to come out and vote too.

    I think the chances of the next GE being an extinction event for the Tory Party are probably greater under Johnson. (It may surprise you to learn that I don't think this would be a particularly desireable outcome.)
    My feeling is that opposition is baked in, now. The anti Tory vote is mobilised.

    The problem with Sunak is he doesn't motivate the pro Tory vote either. At all.
    He is the only reason I would still vote for the party in 2024 and I expect there are very many more who recognise he was handed a Johnson/Truss poisoned chalice and he may just mitigate the defeat that is coming
    He is on 22% in the polls. I don't see how it isn't obvious what an electoral dud he is....
    The conservative party cannot foist Johnson on the nation again without annihilation at the next GE
    The Tory party is currently on 22% in the polls. That is annihilation.
    No, the 14% the Tories were on in the worst poll under Truss was annihilation, literally zero seats. Even the worst polls under Rishi now have the Tories on about 50 seats, the best polls under Rishi have the Tories on 150-200 seats
    Yes, I think that is about right.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
    There you go again, making the mistake that everyone who dislikes Johnson mates. You understimate the enthusiasm he attracts.

    Very happy and Happy total 20%. Add the neither happy nor unhappy and you're at a whacking 38%.....

    Amongst over 65s, you're at over 50%.....
    Yes, but that is still well down on 2019, and not all those "Happy" voters would vote for Johnson. Some might be SNP in need of a distraction, and a laugh!

    I don't fear the return of Johnson as the final act in this farce of a clapped out government.
    I suggested he'd do better than Sunak. You said the polling doesn't support that.

    You're now changing the goalposts to the huge majority of 2019??!
    42% of Con voters being either fairly or very unhappy at his return would suggest that his polling would be no better than Sunaks, and quite likely worse.
    That poll literally shows more Con voters would be happy than unhappy. You're cherry picking.

    I want to declare an interest here, too. I don't want Johnson to return. But I also don't want Declinist-Sunakism
    I, personally, think you are underestimating the latent support for Sunak. We see it on here with Big G and Casino and (sometimes) Max.

    These are long term Tory voters who recognise I think that the experiments of the last several years have been disastrous but can’t and won’t make the step toward Labour (or Lib Dem).

    Also, TimS posted a very interesting analysis of polling a day or so ago which basically said we should absolutely expect a narrowing in due course such that Rishi can scrape a respectable rather than humiliating loss.

    However, what is very useful about your post is the clear existence of animosity toward Rishi from a sizeable chunk of Tory support.
    I think (and the Jan figures on tax reciepts show) that Sunak and Hunt are being unnecessarily tight on government spending, but the narrow road to a Con revival before the next GE is all about re-establishing economic credibility and competence.

    I don't think it will work in time, but it is the Tories only chance.
    I agree.

    But I also totally see that without an accompanying reason to believe - and Rishi is absolutely hopeless at that - it feels utterly demoralising for a sizeable chunk of Tories and there are large numbers of them on a voter strike.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,508

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Well, Yougov on the return of Johnson doesn't really support that he would do better than Sunak:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/21/15a1a/1

    In particular it shows that Johnsons supposed "Red Wall" popularity is not supported by polling evidence.
    There you go again, making the mistake that everyone who dislikes Johnson mates. You understimate the enthusiasm he attracts.

    Very happy and Happy total 20%. Add the neither happy nor unhappy and you're at a whacking 38%.....

    Amongst over 65s, you're at over 50%.....
    Yes, but that is still well down on 2019, and not all those "Happy" voters would vote for Johnson. Some might be SNP in need of a distraction, and a laugh!

    I don't fear the return of Johnson as the final act in this farce of a clapped out government.
    I suggested he'd do better than Sunak. You said the polling doesn't support that.

    You're now changing the goalposts to the huge majority of 2019??!
    42% of Con voters being either fairly or very unhappy at his return would suggest that his polling would be no better than Sunaks, and quite likely worse.
    That poll literally shows more Con voters would be happy than unhappy. You're cherry picking.

    I want to declare an interest here, too. I don't want Johnson to return. But I also don't want Declinist-Sunakism
    I, personally, think you are underestimating the latent support for Sunak. We see it on here with Big G and Casino and (sometimes) Max.

    These are long term Tory voters who recognise I think that the experiments of the last several years have been disastrous but can’t and won’t make the step toward Labour (or Lib Dem).

    Also, TimS posted a very interesting analysis of polling a day or so ago which basically said we should absolutely expect a narrowing in due course such that Rishi can scrape a respectable rather than humiliating loss.

    However, what is very useful about your post is the clear existence of animosity toward Rishi from a sizeable chunk of Tory support.
    Rishi is the best of a bad lot. I can’t see any Tory leader that would do any better. I also can see Johnson standing down at the next election, to avoid being defeated. The international speaking circuit must be more enjoyable and more lucrative than being LOTO.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,438
    WillG said:

    WillG said:



    The biggest difference between us and the Swiss is the fact that supply of low skilled migrants is much higher here than to Switzerland, because we are seen as less socially conformist, we have greater cultural presence and we speak English. The result is that Switzerland gets fewer low skilled migrants, requiring less subsidization and having less downward pressure on wages at the bottom.

    The social conformity also reduces anti-social behaviour, so you get less petty crime and welfare abuse.

    No. 31% of Swiss residents are first generation immigrants vs 17% in the UK, though there may be some difference in exact definitions:

    https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/population/migration-integration/by-migration-status.html
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/internationalmigrationenglandandwales/census2021

    Swiss cities are thoroughly diverse, though rural cantons are not - in much the same way that Godalming, where I live, is very monocultural (I've met exactly one non-white resident in 4 years).
    Again, entirely ignoring the words "low skilled". Immigrants to Switzerland are high skilled Western Europeans.
    Many are, many are not. For example, there are twice as many Serbs than Brits. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Switzerland for analysis.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited February 2023

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am thinking and hoping that the economy turns a corner in the summer.

    Some theories that we are actually heading for deflation which means BoE rates might already have topped out and/or should be reversing come the end of the year.

    A deal in Northern Ireland, and continued efforts in that vein, might improve foreign investment sentiment.

    If true, some (but certainly not enough) voters will return to the devil they think they know.

    Curveballs include a return for Boris, which is not at all a negligible risk given current polling.

    I think you're probably right on all counts.

    I suspect, following a failure to cut taxes in March, Rishi blames the terrible May locals performance on his Chancellor. Tries to replace him, falls himself, and is replaced by Boris coming through the middle of a Hunt vs Gove slugfest.
    Even on current polling the Tories are only a fraction below the 28% May got in the 2019 locals. So the fall in Tory voteshare won't likely be that much.

    Boris may now have about 100 Conservative MPs behind him but he needs about 185 Tory MPs behind him to actually oust Rishi in a VONC
    I can't see any way that Johnson could command a majority in the House of Commons. Too many MPs hate him, no?
    I think now yes. His best hope is to let Rishi and Hunt lose the next general election, let them take the blame, hope to hold Uxbridge or find a safer seat, then take over as Leader of the Opposition. A shellshocked Tories would take him back in that scenario and he could then have fun as Leader of the Opposition with no responsibility while PM Starmer then has to deal with the economy and strikes
    The idea that Johnson could become PM again, the fourth in a year, is a fantasy by his cult followers, and frankly if it came about the voters would deliver a terminal blow to the party at the GE, and deservedly so
    Would the Tories poll less than today's YouGov 22% under Johnson? No, I don't think so.

    Whilst Boris is marmite, those who like him really are willing to come out and vote for him. Rishi's problem is that whilst he doesn't scare the horses, no-one really wants a dull technocrat leading, and Hunt's is that they don't want their taxes to be put up by a technocrat who always seems to be smirking. And if they want high tax centrism, why not go the whole hog and vote Starmer?
    Johnson is toxic and at least Sunak and Hunt have stabilised the economy after the dreadful Truss

    Sunak looks like he may well do a deal on NI despite Johnson efforts and apparently he has told Barclay to do a deal with the nurses

    There is time for sensible tax cuts, and I would expect to see them in 2024 but a lot depends on outside factors and not least the concern the Ukraine conflict could last not just months but years

    While the polls are terrible the public would be furious with Johnson and his allies if he was foisted on the nation again
    It’s true, that Johnson’s stewardship of the Conservative Party pulled down the tree and burnt the trusted roots which stood it up for a hundred years - he just flipped what they stand for around, confusing the voters - let wages rip, throw money at levelling up, 40 new hospitals, Boris’ sunlit uplands turns out to be the taxed to the hilt, borrowed till the markets declined our credit card, public services falling apart straightjacket Sunak and Hunt find themselves strapped in.

    It’s also true, those who hate Johnson, his bluster, boosterism, bullshit, really hate him, as far as the hate scale will allow.

    But, it’s also true, if Boris became leader now they would go into the next election with more voters than with Rishi.

    How it works, Here is a snip of what Mike Smithson posted yesterday. 38% in the Red Wall seats they won for the first time time last time. Only 7 behind Labour Mid Term.



    In normal lateral thinking positions you let a three year PM, most of which lost to covid, rare and historic landslide winner to boot, more time mid term to be the comeback kid, but problem was they had a get out of jail trump card to play in the insanely popular Dishy Rishi, MPs brainwashed themselves into believing they would get a bounce back to majority defending support under Rishi Sunak.

    But if anything, the slicker smoother Rishi is it reminds voters of everything they hate about these Tory years. Boris makes voters forget about austerity and 13 wasted years whilst Rishi constantly reminds them of it.

    Snip from the same graph. You do the maff.


  • Options

    This is one of the most interesting mini-debates PB has had in…a long time.

    Yes, I was thinking that. Shame I have to go to bed now. Catch you all tomorrow.

    Nite.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Boris would, I think, lift Tory numbers in the short term and into a GE.

    However he and the Tories would be trounced, absolutely, and it’s possible the Tories would never come back from it.

    Although he motivates some, he repulses to an astonishing degree. I don’t think the Tory Party would survive him, I really don’t.

    Personally, I don't think the Tory party survives a Hunt chancellorship that lasts more than this year.
    The Labour Party survived two terms led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory Party survived being led by Iain Duncan Smith. The Tories will survive a Hunt Chancellorship.

    They'll lose after it, but the Party will be there to be rebuilt in Opposition.
    My yardstick is my father; a life long Tory voter. He won't vote Tory at the next election with declinists in charge.

    He once drove 3 hours home to vote in a PCC election.

    If my father is lost, the party is done for.
    Define "done for".

    If you mean will lose the election and go onto the Opposition benches, from where they will one day return to Government but it may take about 15 years to do so, then I agree.

    If you mean will disintegrate and not even be the Official Opposition, then I don't.

    Your father and I may not vote Tory, but enough others will to keep them the Official Opposition.
    '97 was almost an ELE. Fewer than 125 MPs and I think the party disintegrates. Local and Indy parties start to succeed at council level. Fewer strong candidates think its worth standing as a Tory MP.
    Not unless Starmer abolishes First Past the Post.

    If he does, all bets are off.
    The Tories might actually win more seats under PR than FPTP on the worst polls for them now.

    RefUK would also win seats under PR as would a Corbynite Party (albeit Corbyn might hold Islington North as an Independent even under FPTP)
    Irrelevant. FPTP means that parties suffer when they do badly, which isn't a bad thing, but the tide will turn and they will come back again.

    In Canada the Conservative Party got reduced to literally just 2 seats in 1993. Within 13 years Canada had a Conservative PM again in the form of Steven Harper.

    The disparate Conservative parties united to recreate a Conservative Party that could win an election, within third years of virtually total annihilation.
    Agreed. FPTP needs a Party of the Right and a Party of the Left.

    So, it is never the case that annihilation happens .... though some lunatick alway pops up predicting annihilation of the Tories or (about 2 years ago) the Labour Party. It never happens.

    In fact, we must be reaching Peak Starmer.
This discussion has been closed.