We have not discussed Trump for some time but he continues to be doing well in WH2024 nomination polling as well as the betting. I’m less convinced. I wonder whether he polls well because as an ex-President he has far higher name recognition but there are a lot of negatives.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Celticcurio/status/1624466492761821186?t=sZJChprR0MnUrCfGboyQ4A&s=19
And OT, any Republican candidate needs to find an answer to January 6th that bridges those who backed Trump and those who respect democracy. Tricky.
I think that it was leaked by a rejoiner. They want to highlight the confirmation that Brexit is bad for the economy and the Labour is not being radical enough and cosiing up to the arch enemy the Conservatives.
The alternative would be an arch brexitier as part of the tory wars with the aim of embarasing the brexit realists.
Haley is too RINO for most Republicans now, Pence will be a contender too if he wins evangelicals
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wwii-era-bomb-explodes-in-england-in-unplanned-detonation/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-64609394
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/10/second-world-war-bomb-detonates-unexpectedly-in-great-yarmouth
So the Nazis didn’t lose the war because of the Soviets on the Eastern Front, but because they lost the Battle of the Atlantic in 1943. This meant that the full weight of American production could be brought to bear via both sea and air - and that while the Germans had (much) better tanks it didn’t really matter if they had limited fuel or no air cover. Also makes the point that while the “Battle of Britain” is a great story, its outcome was never in doubt, and Operation Sealion would have been an unmitigated disaster - for the Nazis.
It’s an interesting (if averagely written) read, and ignores “what ifs” like the Nazis taking
Suez, but certainly thought provoking and a move on from the “big battles” historiography of WWII.
Note that a plurality of Republicans want a nominee other than Trump: "Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 49 percent say they prefer someone other than Trump as their nominee in 2024, compared with 44 percent who favor the former president. That too is statistically unchanged from last September."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/05/poll-biden-trump-2024/
(I don't know how important this is to many of you, but Haley is qualified, unlike the two leaders.)
Being a recognised figure putting their name forward even as a no hoper is at least showing a bit more courage than most others.
Even as for the Battle of Britain - there was a pipeline of trained pilots from Canada that Dowding could rely on to replace losses in the medium term. So he could throw in everyone who was immediately available.
Sealion was demented more and more you look at it. A personal favourite - the German Army gave an engineering unit raised (and based) in Bavaria the job of improvising sea going transport capability…. Now, what don’t they have in Bavaria?
If he accepted his defeat then he wouldn't gain any brownie points for respecting democracy. He'd simply be a loser. This way most of the primary voters she with him that he isn't a loser, let alone a bad loser, but the rightful winner who had the election stolen from him.
It's that victory of Trump against reality, in the minds of GOP primary voters, that makes him the favourite for the nomination.
There is no question that the loss of the air war in the west doomed the Wehrmacht - a complete inability to move in daylight for fear of fighter-bombers crippled attempts to repel D-Day.
We are drawn to the big set pieces for the narrative, but it’s surely true that the war was won in the factories of the USA and across the Atlantic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Btjn6yQV9eo
Yours for $5,500
One of my favourite twiter feeds is this one, where someone has taken a photo of Cambridge every day since 2010. There are over 4,700 in total.
They give new angles on a city I know well.
https://mobile.twitter.com/acambridgediary
Whereas the British (and I think US) rules were to take a count of all the tanks available last thing at night. Any that were usable the next day, were operational. Any that could be fixed within a few days were in another category, and ones requiring longer-term work in another. Finally there were the destroyed out ones.
So our tank numbers in the records vary wildly from day to day, with large numbers coming back online when spares come in. I can imagine the German situation caused them significant issues with not knowing how many tanks they had available at any time.
(I hope I got that right!)
Not the least being the Royal Navy, Royal Canadian Navy, United States Navy and other allied naval forces; AND British, American, etc. merchant marine; PLUS the men and women in shipyards up and down the East AND West coasts of the USA who built the Liberty ships and other cargo vessels that broke the back of the wolf packs even before the navies, air forces and code breakers sent most of the U-boats to the bottom of Davy Jones' locker.
This was one reason that the first Gulf War startled military analysts - especially Russian. The Americans, through a combination of logistics, integrated repair and plain reliability, had created wholly armoured forces (tanks, APCs etc) that could move around the map as they liked. Plan 1919 made real.
Actually..
The number of reports would fill a sizeable library at this rate. I wonder if anyone ever reads them.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/08/damning-report-uncovers-years-of-sexual-harassment-at-transport-union
That list again
- Parliament
- The army
- The air force
- The London fire brigade and other fire brigades
- The police
- The NHS
- The Labour Party
- The TSSA
And those are the ones we know about.
Fine that is, before he later (probably) discovered he wanted more.
Happened once in eastern Ukraine. The Makhnovshchina weren't nationalist in the slightest.
Happened in places in Spain.
Have a look at Rojava too, in the present tense.
"Revolution is the only form of 'war' ... in which ultimate victory can be prepared only by a series of defeats". (Rosa Luxemburg.)
What's sad is when nationalist nutters think they're being so alpha, often seeking out all-male environments in which they enjoy showing off to other men.
Alphas are a subcategory of betas and they're just as cucky.
Sigmas are where it's at.
(And absolutely not those of the racist and sexist Nick Krauser kind. They're worse than anyone. Krauser was a neo-Nazi the last I heard. A person who thinks they're "sigma" at the same time they are nationalist, racist, and pro-hierarchy is an idiot.)
- Found out
- Not found out. Yet
@merseypolice
officers for keeping everyone safe.
https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1624450521154129920
Suella Braverman is encouraging violence against human beings. This version of the Tory Party is nasty and cruel and has to go.
An impressively brutal and slick advert for Lucas Kunce on Josh Hawley in the MIssouri race.
"Keep on Running".
https://twitter.com/mmpadellan/status/1611402211443068928
Sigh.
One pub closes one prime car park dogging spot springs up.
The working class revolution won’t happen because the working class aren’t interested.
Men are not animals, obliged to follow their urges. They are human beings, able to make choices about how they act. And if they choose to act in the way that far too many men do, that is down to their individual responsibility. The culture helps create a sort of ethical blindness, a sort of boiling the frog syndrome. But ultimately each individual has responsibility for their own behaviour and a conscience and should be ashamed of behaving in the ways described in these endless reports.
I am sick of this. I am sick of hearing about more organisations treating their staff, especially their female staff, like shit. I am sick of reading the same things over and over again in reports. I am sick of hearing insincere apologies and the "lessons will be learned" cliche. I am sick of hearing that it is all very hard. It bloody well isn't hard to behave well, with consideration, politeness and empathy.
Why did ChatGPT invent this article? Smerdon speculates as follows: the most cited economics papers often have “theory” and “economic” in them; if an article starts “a theory of economic . . . ” then “ . . . history” is a likely continuation. Douglass North, Nobel laureate, is a heavily cited economic historian, and he wrote a book with Robert Thomas. In other words, the citation is magnificently plausible. What ChatGPT deals in is not truth; it is plausibility."
https://www.ft.com/content/6c2de6dd-b679-4074-bffa-438d41430c31
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/11/revealed-secret-cross-party-summit-held-to-confront-failings-of-brexit
Are you suggesting that just because someone gets a job with a guaranteed pension bigger than the Prime Minster’s salary, that they should be… Responsible?!!!?
Where's the cloakroom?
What if men are evolutionarily and genetically
predisposed to violence, including violence against women. And therefore we can’t rely on appealing to some better nature to prevent violence in future?
There seem to be 3 explanations for the predominance of male violence, against their own sex and the opposite sex:
1. It’s in their genes. There were evolutionary fitness reasons for male humans to behave in a warlike manner, and to commit sexual violence, spurred on by a different hormonal chemistry
3. It’s cultural: we live in a patriarchy which celebrates or at least excuses violent male behaviour, so men feel cultural pressure to behave according to type (but why? is there an evolutionary reason?)
4. There is no cultural or genetic effect here, we are all able to exercise free choice; men just happen - coincidentally - to do more of this shit
3 seems unlikely. 2 is the most common explanation in the West. But why do we see the same patterns in just about every society, throughout history? Why is almost every human society patriarchal?
What if actually we need to accept males are a genetically more dangerous group in this particular species, and restrain their freedoms accordingly? Sure, there are gentle (“feeble”) men who defy the genes - I’m probably one of them. But are they like Ferdinand the bull who refused to fight and preferred to sniff flowers until a bee stung his behind? In other words freaks departing from an otherwise violent norm.
You will say this is a cop out as it denies personal responsibility. A fair point, but I still come back to that question: can there really be an explanation for male violence that doesn’t take into account genetics?
Shocking, I realise.
https://twitter.com/TSting18/status/1624509990613446664
In 2016 Trump had a lot of support in Europe - active support from people who did stuff to help him. Two of the most powerful "troll" armies were on his side. A strong Democratic candidate is needed - one who can take the fight to Trump and really sock it to the b*stard - but where is he or she? If Biden runs for re-election the amount of incumbency bias may turn out to be inappreciably small or even negative, and the Trump brand I fear is well configured for taking on Harris.
The amount of buildup for the Knowsley violence was scary. A Faecesbook rumour of sexual assault, so I am informed. Classy.
Of course there is nothing new about the far-right use of such rumours, but that doesn't make them any the less effective.
They featured in a sizeable proportion of lynchings in the US.
Sooner or later there will be another Koln. One thing to watch for when it happens is the timing. Might happen in Britain.
The betting markets are wrong about Labour though...
It’s a long way off though. I suspect getting the free trade actually working is the first step.
You'll be suggesting they should do a competent job next.
And from there, it's only a step to suggesting people should be appointed on merit and not on background or who they're Bessie mates with.
And then the whole structure of government and society will unravel.
I'd very much like to blame Brexit and the Conservative Government, but the reality is less complicated. The food is invariably an expensive add water and stir disappointment.
And just as pretty much all societies have been patriarchal, in very many of those societies over many times there have also been movements to control and channel men's urges and to teach and encourage them to behave well, especially to women.
What puzzles me is that a time when we are supposed to believe in equality and be against bad 'isms, like sexism, it seems to be as bad as ever. We pay lip service to equality but the reality seems to be darker in many ways. There is a glorification of violence, of sexual violence, a view that women fundamentally only exist for the benefit of men and not in their own right that makes it harder than it need be for men to rise above their genetic inheritance.
But if you are right and men are basically wolves then yes we will have to restrict their freedoms to stop them being such a nuisance.
I would be as sorry as I was this morning when Australia were given the most epic shellacking of all time by India.
I was so sorry that tears were running down my face.
Mind you, the hysterical laughter may have had something to do with that.
I think misogyny is so deeply ingrained in our culture that people will often act in a misogynistic way without making a choice to do so. This means that if we can get to the root of this culture, and change it, then we can make a large difference to behavioural outcomes without everyone having to make a conscious decision about every action (which is unrealistic, as we know from cognitive science that most decisions are made using cognitive shortcuts for reasons of speed and efficiency, so we have to tackle the cognitive shortcuts directly, and then it shouldn't take effort for people to choose to behave well).
That's not to say that individuals don't have responsibility for their actions, but I think it's a more accurate understanding of human behaviour and how you might change it.
I shall tiptoe out of this conversation now before @Leon discovers it .......
In Britain, the culture in many parts of society is also about class to an exceptional degree, even when in principle it doesn't have to be. Exclusionism is written right the way through British culture as if it were a stick of rock.
Most working class people haven't got a clue how anyone in the ruling class thinks, for the simple reason that they haven't met any. The richest person they ever meet on a one-to-one basis is probably a local GP or dentist (or used to meet, in the case of the former).
But there is a residual genetic and/or hormonal echo, which pervades the Met police and other organisations up this day.
What’s the answer? I wonder about a future where, with selective IVF, we become more like lions. Ten women for every man. Women get what they want: to run things and make the important decisions, and to ogle at thick but handsome men. Males get what they want: a life of leisure, the occasional low risk fight with other men, a comically inflated sense of their own importance, no actual responsibilities, and a wide choice of female love interest. They’d probably in that scenario be allowed to mansplain from time to time, because it would be quaint.
It wouldn’t appeal to me. I’d probably go gay or join some new eunuch class. But I could see it working for a lot of people.
But cutting through the sci fi perhaps, in a less obvious way, that is the appropriate direction of travel.
Since male reproduction is in general less likely than female reproduction, then it is women who should be playing the main role in selecting for male traits that are successful and passed on to the next generation. So why haven't women selected for men who behave well and treat them right?
I think the explanation for this is culture, and one of the examples is the fact that women on juries are generally less willing to convict for rape than men. Women are as much part of our misogynistic culture as men, even though they are the principal victims of that culture, and so they help to perpetuate that culture down the generations. I think this means we need to do a couple of things.
Firstly, we need to work out what we can do with early years education to create a new culture for the next generation. Secondly, we should be prepared to take what might seem like exaggerated actions to tackle the problem, actions that would feel like an over-reaction, to shock adult generations in to re-thinking their ingrained culture.
For example, I would consider things like a curfew one day a week for all men. A lower tax rate for women to compensate for the average gender pay gap. Make it compulsory for married couples to take the woman's surname. Some of these could be permanent measures that would largely become redundant as the problem went away, and others could be explicitly time-limited measures while society was forced into reforming itself.
What it is, is backwards. It's not about working class not understanding the rulers. We understand them very well. They're useless scum floating on the top.
It's rather the ruling class have no idea how normal people think, because they never meet us.
Must give them a hell of a shock if they ever do meet people they rule.
A chap I vaguely knew quit the city for health reasons. Ran a high end country hotel/coaching inn style place. Wasn’t really intending to run it as a pub - but said he could not believe the difference between what he had to charge (owned the buildings outright) to make a very nice profit vs the tied pubs.
Do you really think people on 100k never mix with those earning 30-40k, the typical salary? People earning 100k go to pubs, go to restaurants, go to village fetes.
Educate better, from early years onwards. Overhaul recruitment and training for the police (and in some cases dismantle entire forces and rebuild them), reform the court process and sentencing. Properly fund social services.
"F-35 fighter jets were sent up to investigate after the object was first detected on Thursday, according to a US official. Kirby told reporters that the first fly-by of US fighter aircraft happened Thursday night, and the second happened Friday morning. Both brought back 'limited' information about the object.
But the pilots later gave differing reports of what they observed, the source briefed on the intelligence said.
Some pilots said the object 'interfered with their sensors' on the planes, but not all pilots reported experiencing that.
Some pilots also claimed to have seen no identifiable propulsion on the object, and could not explain how it was staying in the air, despite the object cruising at an altitude of 40,000 feet.
The conflicting eyewitness accounts are partly why the Pentagon has been unable to fully explain what the object is, the source briefed on the matter said."
Aaannnddd...
there's another unidentified craft in the skies, this time above northern Canada: CTV News:
"The North American Aerospace Defence Command (Norad) [a combined USA-Canadian command] says it is monitoring a high-altitude airborne object flying over Northern Canada."
If you think that, for example, Jacob Rees-Mogg got into Parliament because of his intellect and high character, or Amanda Spielman has had any of her last three jobs on merit I have a bridge to sell you.
Responsibility suggests that they are one of the Head Count - what is the point of all that joining the right societies at uni, doing all the Common Purpose courses without falling asleep, all the right charity events …. If not to reach the Olympian Plains. The Valhalla, where after a disaster, the next morning Our Heros and Heroines awake refreshed and unscratched?
If we lived in an Islamic society, and did things like sending dick pics to women, flashing at them at work, making endless lewd comments, telling them how much we’d like to rape them, posting online fantasies about torture and rape, we would get into extremely hot water.
A young man almost certainly finds it easier to have consequence-free sex with young women in modern Western societies than at any point in history.
But there is something nasty in human nature that enjoys cruelty and degradation.
I think we’ve dropped one set of ethics that governed male behaviour towards women (the pre 1960’s) without putting another in their place. Added to which is a dreadful corporate and public sector culture that holds no one to account for their actions.
Group responsibility is an interesting phenomenon. It has its good and bad points.
When the latest story of a missing woman hits the news I have that familiar fear: please let it not be yet another predatory man doing the all too predictable thing. I imagine it’s not a dissimilar feeling to that Muslims have when the latest bomb hits the news. Please let it not be islamist terrorism. In both cases the question is the same: why don’t men/Muslims more loudly denounce their fellow men/coreligionists. And it’s a fair question.
As with islamism the big question is bad apples vs something more structural.