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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Scottish LAB voters hold the key to their country’s future
On Sunday we reported on the ICM poll in Scotland on September’s IndyRef which had the gap narrowing sharply. On one measure those who wanted independence were just 6% behind.
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So plenty of time and opportunity for minds and votes to be changed.
The number of dachas you'll be able to buy is increasing by the hour....
What bribe would persuade them to vote one way or the other?
""Englishness" isn't something you can bottle, define or encase in amber. It is evolving and re-inventing itself all the time. Yes, it changes and some people don't like that but it always has changed and always will." - Stodge
That is such a misleading argument.
Yes "Englishness" has changed and evolved over time, and every English person is a product of that change, but the speed of the change is the problem.
Saying the gradual change of centuries gone is somehow the same as the changes brought about by mass immigration is like calling spending two hours watching a film in the cinema and five minutes watching a dvd on fast forward the same thing
Salmond won;t need a bribe if it starts to look like the tories might get in again.
The driver had an issue with his licence which meant he was not allowed to continue.
I assume it was something technical like the class of vehicle he was driving, but in any event he driving without a valid licence.
It's a specious argument. If the English were redefining themselves constantly, UKIP wouln't exist. And neither would the tories.
Of course, these huge changes often provoked violent resistance to varying degrees.
In one sense you could say that you are both right. This is simply yet another change, like many changes before, but as always any sort of change will be contested by those who oppose it.
Let us know when to lay off
So the rUk must have a referendum on whether we want to have such a deal in the event of Sco leaving the Uk.
I'd say that referendum would be hard to win for the "Yes to sharing" camp...
And is it illegal to take a photo outside chequers? I know you are trying to dramatize it all by making it sound like a terrorist was driving an unmarked articulated full of semtex, but this was a bright purple van with UKIP written all over it!
Naturally, the pace of change worries people - people like continuity, stability and certainty (except in their gadgets it would seem). These worries need to be addressed and there's no question the main political parties have been remiss in that.
The concerns are also meat and drink for those parties who see their own political growth tied up with exacerbating and feeding on these worries. Negatives are accentuated and exaggerated and anyone trying to put a different case forward slapped down.
In terms of raw numbers what is 16% of 2011 SNP voters and what is 30% of 2011 labour voters. It wasn't that close between them, was it?
One of the things that bedevils the discussion is that both types often think themselves superior - we metropolitans too easily think people who dislike change are blinkered and scared of variety, people who dislike lots of migration (both in and out) too easily think metropolitans are surrendering something precious so they can get cheap plumbers.
In reality, most people are some sort of mixture - my constituent who would make foreign languages illegal is a rarity, as are people who would cheerfully have 500 million foreign settlers tomorrow. Even Farage is up for having 500 wounded Syrians. It's a question of where and how to draw the line. Some would do it by need - yes to a Kurdish brain surgeon, no to an Australian farmer. Some would do it by perceived similarity (precisely the opposite choices). Some would do it by number - yes to 10,000 Kurdish farmers in a year, but not 10,001. No doubt there are other variants too. In fact, we're jolly diverse even in this...
I've got a 20-hour journey tomorrow so I'll call it a (Japanese) night.
Its undeniable that the world is always evolving, but in the 21st Century we have the ability to speed up this evolution to an uncomfortable pace if we want to, and big business and Governments are doing that.
16% of 902,915 constituency votes (SNP) = approx. 140,000
30% of 630,461 constituency votes (Labour) = approx. 210,000
Canada look a great price at 14/1 for most golds with paddypower and 25/1 with William hill for most medals (prefer the gold bet but both in with a better chance than odds imply imho)
Every 50 years or so they have an existential crisis, which ends up being resolved by the progressive and the reactionary wing splitting and then ultimately reforming - usually as a more progressive organisation. I'd highlight:
- Ultras 1820s [social]
- Peelites 1830/40s [economics]
- Ditchers 1910s [constitution]
- Butskellism 1950s [social]
- Wets 1980s [economics]
"Being in a currency union can amplify fiscal stress, and increase both the risks and consequences of financial instability," said Mr Carney.
"In short, a durable, successful currency union requires some ceding of national sovereignty.""
Who in rUk is going to vote for sharing the £ with Scotland if they vote to leave ?
1. Was the passenger insured on a rented vehicle?
2. Did the police have better things to do than wait 30+ minutes for another driver to turn up?
3. Police guarding the PM have to make risk assessments. If I was planning to drive a bomb into Chequers I might well try and disguise it as legitimate political protest as well.
You're going to defend the police, no matter what as its UKIP vs Tory, and I guess I am the same in reverse, so lets just leave it a that, a partisan spat?
http://tinyurl.com/q2kflpv
Cue squirrely chitter of 'PANELBASE!'
A bit like a group of people who are leaving a sports club voting to keep using the tennis courts.
On this occasion - but not always - I can completely understand the police's actions. Of course the UKIP guy wants some publicity, so has run whining to the papers. But it really isn't some kind of politically motivated anti-UKIP agenda by the police. Or me.
Naive to think that the press would not pick up on these potential downside risks for the rUK.
Cameron leaves open tax cuts for wealthy http://on.ft.com/1cuqbGs
This is not the sort of message Cameron/tories need - like I was saying from previous thread.
You ain't seen frothing yet if you think PM Miliband signing up to a single currency without a vote would go down well.
Ian Birrell@ianbirrell3 mins
Truth clearly hurts MT @oflynnexpress Cameroon Tory repeats his master's nasty ad hominem attacks on UKIP http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/28/nigel-farage-ukip-jokes-on-us?CMP=twt_gu … …
The vehicle should have been seized, crushed and the scrap metal sold in an open market for best value.
Ian Birrell @ianbirrell 17 mins
@oflynnexpress Shame you feel you have to abuse me, Patrick
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnexpress 5 mins
@ianbirrell Don't dish it out so virulently if you can't take the mildest riposte. Agree yr aid views don't prove a "hate-filled heart" tho
In so far as the payment of tax for this income group is 'discretionary', the amount of tax paid will correlate with implied consent.
An optimal tax yield is the fairest outcome for those not in the top 1%.
The yield is only optimal because it is perceived to be at its fairest level by the top earners.
Have I missed something?
What is so interesting about this speech is that it's so boring. In contrast to all the scare stories Mr Carney's message is basically that we need to think carefully about the details and that the Scots would not have total control of their currency if they stayed with sterling pro tem. But that is obvious.
In fact, given the positive effect on the balance of payments from Scottish exports, it would seem a positive advantage to keep the Scots on side. And the refusal to cede Scotland its share of sterling (which is a UK asset, not an EWNI one) would in itself be extremely damaging to negotiations more widely. To argue seriously that the Scots had no share of it would be equivalent to using the 'new state' argument and therefore pushing for the 'no assets, no debts' solution - which is not what the Scottish Gmt are offering, which is the fair shares option.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-25945052
Prosecuting people for taking food from bins that would otherwise have gone to waste. Do they not have real crimes to investigate and prosecute? Ones with victims ideally.
That has yet to be absorbed and debated by rUk in any form - and I suggest the permission of the people of rUk would have to be sought to permit that to happen.
Or do you think that the rUK - which is so against the EU single currency would have a very different opinion of joining a McSingle currency ?
I want to question whether they are being exploited by the hard left
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/nigel-farage-do-question-time-audiences-need-to-be-quite-so-hostile-9054389.html
Had you done the same, Mr Polruan, you would be have been aware of the following passage:
Given that more than 700,000 Scots live in the rest of the United Kingdom and over 500,000 from the rest of the UK live in Scotland, one would be tempted to assume that labour mobility between the two is high.15 In fact gross migration flows between Scotland and the rest of the UK are lower than in the constituent parts of some other currency areas (table 2).
And here is Table 2:
Also - on a semantic point, but important for presentation nonetheless - it would be a matter of 'retaining' rather than 'joining'. Very different politically.
The good people of the rUK (including cybernats from Bath) would have the choice between their own currency - the rUk pound or joining a Euro style single currency union with Scotland.
The Police and CPS are acting entirely within the law and should be applauded.
I look forward to the Met extending their campaign to arresting users of Labour's beloved food banks.
Now that would be justice for all.
And just see how long it takes you to raise capital on the international bond market if Scotland seeks to renege in its share of UK debts.
What's in it for us ? Can the rUk voters be persuaded it's a wonderful idea ? I suggest it would be tricky. And as it's not a given - what's the SNP's plan B ?
Surely its the weighting with QT that's at issue - rather than the individuals. Nothing wrong with a few trots, but when its half a hall full the whole thing looks a bit suspicious.
Mainstream opinions can be made to look outlandish, and vice versa, by the heavy cheering or awkward silences that follow the commentators' comments.
Paul Nuttal was made to feel like he was Nick Griffin. He was very clearly angry and upset. Classic BBC ambush.
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I recognise that view, and that it doesn't bother you, and that you are comfortable with it. However, I would be wary of dismissing the opposing view. It's very easy to jump from saying it's hard to defining Englishness to say that it doesn't exist at all. There are those who may indeed say that, and they usually tend to be English themselves. I think I remember rcs1000 even going so far as to say he doesn't even think he's English, he thinks he's a Londoner.
The problem is that people jump to black & white on this. And virtually nothing in life is black & white. Englishness very definitely does exist. And if you do have concerns about the change (immigration brings) that doesn't mean you don't understand it either. There are most certainly common characteristics in the English, many of which do go back a long way - that I find much more noticeable when I reflect when overseas, and my (foreign born) wife has helped point out to me that I wouldn't know otherwise - and I also notice common characteristics in the English across all political divides. We don't generally notice it as it's so much a part of us we just discount it.
For the counterfactual, substitute 'French' or 'Scottish' into your statement on Englishness - it reads even more strangely. But sometimes, there are those who actually do that semi-deliberately because they actually don't *like* some of the characteristics and culture of English, and want to actively disassociate themselves from it.
If one does that, don't be surprised if the voters don't like you or vote for you very much
1. For some in this category, it will be discretionary. For many, many others it will not be (the manager of a large supermarket would be an additional-rate payer in a good year). Furthermore, discretionary payment will be time-limited, by pushing income from one year to another, temporarily boosting pension payments (now restricted!), etc. I'd say that was a thin argument.
2. Simply untrue, or a perverse definition of 'fair'. One could assert that the confiscation of all assets belonging to the top 10% would be the fairest outcome for the remaining 90%. Again, it holds as much water as a rusty sieve.
3. Not buying that either. Its perceived to be the "least intolerable", or the "best expected", or perhaps, "reasonable". It may even be perceived as fair, but "fairest level"? I'm starting to assume you're teasing me, Mr Pole.
4. It would appear so.
If the PB tories can't persuade floating scottish voters then who can?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/jan/29/cameron-and-miliband-at-pmqs-politics-live-blog#block-52e914bee4b06d26259f6bfc
The Dr. Johnson inspired flight accounts for the London Scotch.
Nationalism being more of a romantic than classical concept led to the Persuasion of a larger number of subsequent emigrés to join Jane Austen in Bath.
Indeed, Bath continues today to be a hotbed of the Scots nationalist cause and culture.
I learned only recently that:
In 2008, 104 decorated pigs were displayed around the city in a public art event called "King Bladud's Pigs in Bath". The event celebrated the city, its origins and its artists. Decorated pig sculptures were on display throughout the summer and were later auctioned to raise funds for Bath's Two Tunnels Greenway.
Such cultural interchange and diversity is of course to be warmly welcomed.
The EU changes, adapts and reforms all the time. It did so recently during the Eurozone crisis and it will do so again. It all depends upon the outcomes the big EU countries wish for. There will be broad aims upon which the main EU countries agree. There will be huffing and puffing. There will be negotiation. There will be compromise. There will be protests, there will be clauses added in for some small countries. There will be exceptions and amendments. But it will continue to evolve. And the EU will pass what it needs to.
Because the alternative is the whole thing eventually dies because of its inability to change and the current EU member states realise this and no members (least of all you) truly wants that outcome.
I would guess not.
In all these places, a bankrupt banking system too big for the host country led to the need for a national bailout. These countries had a banking system of between three and seven times the size of their GDP. Scotland’s banking system is 12 times the size of its GDP.
- See more at: http://blogs.channel4.com/faisal-islam-on-economics/dependent-independence-carneys-warning-scotland/19989#sthash.GWMnJdNm.dpuf
Since you are so fond of one of scotland's most popular political websites (you seem to have quite an adorable crush on the man who runs it) I'll let them tell the story.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/carney-speech-definitive-analysis/
Totally agree that this is no death-knell to independence. Bump in the road, perhaps, but I guess you expected a few of those.
Alex's assertions that they could stay with the pound and have a say on policy does, however, play into the hands of those accusing the SNP of being unprepared for independence.
I'll make it a long term offer, charity bet for £50 that Osborne, Cameron, Alexander, Clegg, Milliband, Balls and Carney will not definitively veto a currency union before the referendum.
Of course Carney didn't rule it out - and nobody claimed anywhere he would - but he did suggest that rUk would have to cede powers and take on risks to join this wonderful new single currency mk II.
For this to happen a rUk politician would have to be "brave" or ask the voters of rUk- land in a referendum.
Should not anyone who admits to pursuing a "fairness" agenda be teased?
But I concede that tax yield optimisation is a tactic rather than a strategy.
And a strategic decision to pursue a fair tax policy needs agreeing first.
But then we hit the old problem of how to define "fair". Not easy.
That would be Eck then....
If an independent Scotland chooses to use Sterling as its currency then surely they are quite entitled to do so. The Turks and Caicos Islands, amongst others, use the US dollar, no problem. Where does this business of a currency union come from? If an independent country wants to use the currency of another state how does that impose any obligation on the "owner" of that currency?
Cheer up! Haven't you heard? Little Ed and Labour will help save the fop from his own MPs. LOL