Categories
The 100 days offensive – politicalbetting.com
The 100 days offensive – politicalbetting.com
While Sunak has reduced the Conservative's VI deficit compared to Truss, the Tories still trail Labour by almost 20ptshttps://t.co/cd0dHNyZWm pic.twitter.com/aCkfKusWB4
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The cabinet secretary was personally informed of a written complaint against Dominic Raab months before Rishi Sunak reappointed him as justice secretary, The Times has been told.
Simon Case was warned that officials had made documented allegations about the behaviour of the deputy prime minister that were being taken seriously by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ).
An inquiry into Raab’s behaviour has been told that the deputy prime minister had to be spoken to about his behaviour towards officials last spring, when Boris Johnson was prime minister, and that Britain’s top civil servant was made aware.
In addition, The Times understands that dozens of civil servants have submitted written statements in support of Raab’s accusers, saying that while they were not personally bullied they saw it happening to their colleagues.
It will raise further questions about Sunak’s defence that he was not aware of any “formal complaint” against Raab when bringing him back into government, as well as whether and how Case raised the matter with the prime minister.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/simon-case-was-told-of-dominic-raab-bullying-before-sunak-rehired-him-lstjvl9wp
Oh dear, how sad. Never Mind.
So when a certain subject requires the Secretary of State to get involved the relevant civil servants (and ministers) will deal with the minister.
I wonder whether it is incompetence or indifference?
From a PB viewpoint, there are two issues; what is good for the country and what are the betting positions to hold.
It seems to me that what is good for the country is that, having decided it is time for a change, the Tories don't trash the UK more than necessary and that they place themselves in a position where there is the possibility of them becoming a morally OK One Nation Christian Democrat party again.
Sunak isn't perfect, but he isn't consciously trying to trash the country, unlike predecessors, and he has the capacity to lose the next GE without looking like Trump.
While it would be nice if he was also going to reform the Tories while in office, it can't be done because it is rebuilding a ship in the middle of the ocean during a storm. 5 -10 years in dry dock will help.
Nothing to stop Raab going for a stroll round the department.
Especially those of us who have had to deal with them on a regular basis.
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2023/feb/03/thornborough-henges-north-yorkshire-gifted-england-heritage
"The circular earthworks are thought to be part of a “ritual landscape”, comparable to Salisbury Plain, home to Stonehenge.
There are three henges running north to south over a mile long. Two have been given to the nation by the construction company Tarmac. Lightwater Holdings, a local company, has given parts of the wider monument."
https://mobile.twitter.com/jfruh/status/1621029233245167619
Which are BSL0 facilities.
By Dr Robert Malone"
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/02/02/masks-dont-work-gold-standard-review-of-trial-data-concludes/
Some of them are quite junior, diary secretary is normally an EO from memory, that's an entry level position. That's probably like 4-5 people there, and they rotate so over a few years he could easily have had 15+ private office staff.
Then he'll probably meet fairly regularly with senior civil servants and the grade 6/7s who are delivering the bits of policy he really cares about/are blowing up in the news.
Minister’s Private Office- There are a number of proper Civil Servants here and this is where a minister is most likely to regularly interact with quite junior grades.
Permanent Secretary- Sees the minister regularly, might bring some of their own private office with them for formal meetings.
DGs and subject experts- The minister will
summon the heads of particular business areas as needed. For example the CFO during the budget round. They will probably bring particular specialists with them who whilst being fairly high up the grade scale aren’t high flyers so not used to dealing with politicians.
In my experience flash points occur because Civil Servants and ministers often need different things. Civil Servants want a clear direction so they can set the very complex bureaucratic wheels in motion. Politicians want options that aren’t going to piss anyone off.
As with 'purse', something that can contain something.
Shakespeare made TSE look like an innocent choirboy.
She said they would be effective, if used properly. Disposable three ply, worn correctly, used once and then got rid of correctly.
She added that almost nobody of her acquaintance was using them correctly. So she was dubious about how useful they would be.
On December 30, 2021, Malone claimed on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast that "mass formation psychosis" was developing in American society in its reaction to COVID-19 just as during the rise of Nazi Germany.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_W._Malone#COVID-19_research_and_controversy
The EOs in regular contact is a more likely source of tension I'd have thought.
I put the chances of Labour as largest party at 95%+
Which means they lead the next government.
Overall majority is getting high as well. I think 75%+
EDIT: The only thing that might happen is May style melt down in the campaign itself.
Elsewhere, there's this report from Feb 2019:
.
Controversial experiments that could make bird flu more risky poised to resume
Two “gain of function” projects halted more than 4 years ago have passed new U.S. review process
https://www.science.org/content/article/exclusive-controversial-experiments-make-bird-flu-more-risky-poised-resume
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/feb/03/premier-league-and-efl-financial-settlement-is-urgent-insists-labour
With over half of EFL clubs already insolvent, how many more could go bust or face the brink before then?
Does she simply mean running at a loss? Insolvent means you're in the brown stuff doesn't it?
Edit - the context was me not wearing my mask correctly...
MAKING TROUBLE
The United States is moving to tighten oversight of studies that could make viruses more dangerous. But how far should it go?
https://www.science.org/content/article/u-s-weighs-crackdown-experiments-could-make-viruses-more-dangerous
Mr. Eagles, I just finished reading The Miller's Tale a couple of days ago. Quite the chance of pace from the Knight's.
A lot of clubs are technically insolvent as the majority of the debts they owe their owner/related companies
https://www.begbies-traynorgroup.com/news/business-health-statistics/october-2022-football-distress-survey-trouble-ahead-for-english-clubs-as-cost-of-living-crisis-double-whammy-stifles-revenues-and-ramps-up-costs
a U.S. government review panel quietly approved experiments proposed by two labs that were previously considered so dangerous that federal officials had imposed an unusual top-down moratorium on such research. … [scientists] believe certain studies that aim to make pathogens more potent or more likely to spread in mammals are so risky they should be limited or even banned.
Looks to me like the politicos need to get some control over what these labs get up to.
Proof that it's a useless measure.
Frankly for governments worldwide who claimed to be following the science, we seemed to have learned very little in three years. Our local GP surgery still has receptionists behind a Perspex screen, despite three years of evidence that covid is aerosolised, not droplet based. They also insist on masks, where our local hospital does not, except in certain settings. Madness.
It is a net losing play for the basket of clubs but even more divided on an individual basis as you get 3 winners and about 9 losers each season.
But open to possible infection from wild birds, as happened recently.
At that point, thousands of mink, housed in close proximity, provide an ideal environment for the non mammalian virus to develop a mutation which enables better mammal to mammal transmission.
The other thing I'm wondering is whether there will be a shakedown of "what's the best way to kick the Conservatives?" voters. The sort of people who are probably saying Labour to pollsters now, but will look out of their windows at some point and remember the demographics of where they live. That might lead to a closing of headline intentions, but wouldn't be to Sunak's advantage.
The rules do not apply to the Tory party. The law. Morality. They have been openly trousering public money for them and their spiv friends and not only are we not supposed to care how much money has been stolen, we're supposed to ignore it all and blame Starmer.
Perhaps the polls remain as terrible for the Tories because even the most apolitical now know all of this. Incompetent. Immoral. Corrupt. A change of leader won't suddenly change their behaviour.
Scraps of cloth going on and off the face, into the pocket, out again etc are not the same.
Masks were and are an active deterrent to some people from going out. I attended the Discworld convention in August 2022 where masks were still required (in a hotel with other guests who did not have to wear them). This was for the benefit of more vulnerable visitors, but I suspect the main benefit was placebo.
What I haven't been able to determine, from a brief skim (may need to go back to the original papers) is whether the outcomes were among mask wearers or among the general population.
I'd expect a very moderate, if any, effect of protection for mask wearers (as there they may not wear masks at all appropriate times, a lot of intra-household infection etc - no one wears a mask at home, presumably). What's more interesting, but far harder to measure, is whether general mask use in a population reduces the level of infection in that population compared to no mask use. There, it's hard to generate the counterfactual.
If anyone has insight on which this review covers, I'd be interested.
ETA: Also important to note that the review (politely) says that a lot of the primary studies are a bit shit, so there's still uncertainty (garbage in -> garbage out, however good the review process).
He can't afford much leakage back to the Tories if DKs and RefUK voters return to Sunak
I agree though that few lay people wear masks correctly.
The tactical swing to the Lib Dems only showed up at the end in 1997.
The untold story of rearmament in the the 1930s is how a lot of people sent government money to companies and strangely, found themselves getting big jobs at said companies a little time later. The contracts for the first batch of the KGV battleships stink, in particular.
Incidentally, yesterday, someone was talking about limiting profits. An interesting example of this is the American FAR (Federal Acquisition Regulations) system. Profits are limited, all kinds of inspections are required, for most US government work.
The result has been corruption, political jobbery and insane costs. The last is obvious - if you are limited to 20%, 20% of a billion is better than 20% of a million, right?
See the story of how NASA spent more than the entire Starship development project by SpaceX. On a launch tower. Which will need to be replaced, by another tower. Because the first one can't deal with the next iteration of the SLS (Senate Launch System) rocket.
So the question is when Labour will start to set out its stall - they won't want to do it too early but on the other hand can't afford to leave starting on it too late?
"In 2011, Fouchier and Kawaoka alarmed the world by revealing they had separately modified the deadly avian H5N1 influenza virus so that it spread between ferrets. Advocates of such gain of function (GOF) studies say they can help public health experts better understand how viruses might spread and plan for pandemics. But by enabling the bird virus to more easily spread among mammals, the experiments also raised fears that the pathogen could jump to humans. And critics of the work worried that such a souped-up virus could spark a pandemic if it escaped from a lab or was intentionally released by a bioterrorist. "
A relative insists on them for dust/fibre environments on a building site. Given that manual labourers seem to be able to use them....
"Le Chevalier qui fit les cons parler" is quite a tale
Did any French papers have the headline "Cons gagnent" when the Tories won elections?
“If we don’t have a semiconductor strategy, we’re walking away from one of the biggest industries in the world” Simon Thomas from
@Paragraf_Gr told @amolrajan
https://mobile.twitter.com/kprescott/status/1621423826771873793
Found this in the Guardian from January 1997:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/1997/jan/21/economy.uk
The Shadow Chancellor, Gordon Brown, last night seized the initiative in the pre-election battle on tax when he risked the wrath of leftwingers and the unions by pledging not to raise tax rates in the life of the next parliament.
It goes on to say:
Mr Brown's promise, combined with a commitment to stick by the Conservative Party's public spending plans for the first two years, caught ministers flat-footed as they prepared to relaunch the familiar pre-election tax-and-spend attack on Labour, which Tony Blair's heavily orchestrated campaign is determined to neutralise.
So that commitment had already been made by then.
I think your analysis is spot on. Blair and Mandelson all over this stuff in the run up to 1997. I don't get the sense that Starmer is. Perhaps he doesn't need to be, but it's what makes this situation different to 1997 in my opinion.
Again, simple. X per chip class (processor, GP etc) actually produced at scale. X scaled to UK added value.
The advatanges of such schemes, are
1) that the risk is kept private.
2) politically, you are spending a future governments money. You won't be minister when the subsidy payments are actually required. Since building the factory will take a decade.