Zahawi brazing this one out looks a value bet – politicalbetting.com

System

Zahawi brazing this one out looks a value bet – politicalbetting.com

Smarkets have a market up on who will be the next cabinet minister out and as you would expect Zahawi is the very strong favourite. He’s currently rated as a 90% chance.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

First like Zahawi out of the door.

TheScreamingEagles

My word, I bagsied a rare first.

stodge

Evening again all

The trouble is if Zahawi stays around, he stays around and he's not exactly gaffe-free (comparing nurses to supporters of Putin for example) and he's Conservative Party Chairman so I suspect the next reshuffle will see him move to a lower profile role.

tlg86

Fourth like Man Utd.

Gardenwalker

Brazing?

I thought this place had standards.
(Flounces off).

TheScreamingEagles

Q: How did the hacker get away from the police?

A: He ransomware.

TheScreamingEagles

Gardenwalker said:

Brazing?

I thought this place had standards.
(Flounces off).

I do have some standards it's just they are lower than everyone else's standards.

Foxy

Zahawi is toast, turning to charcoal. His tax fine is not a survivable injury for a cabinet minister.

The only value in betting against is that someone else gets chucked out or resigns first, for example over Zahawi being kept on. I appreciate that sort of integrity is unlikely, but surely not impossible even with the modern Tory party.

Scott_xP

Foxy said:

Zahawi is toast, turning to charcoal. His tax fine is not a survivable injury for a cabinet minister.

The only value in betting against is that someone else gets chucked out or resigns first, for example over Zahawi being kept on. I appreciate that sort of integrity is unlikely, but surely not impossible even with the modern Tory party.

Raab FTW

Leon

Hahaha

When you become this easy a target things aren’t going well. Poor Harry

https://twitter.com/atticumfloreat/status/1618715005968580609?s=46&t=iWO9BSZdfZCIUbL1nsuR7w

Gardenwalker

Scott_xP said:

Foxy said:

Zahawi is toast, turning to charcoal. His tax fine is not a survivable injury for a cabinet minister.

The only value in betting against is that someone else gets chucked out or resigns first, for example over Zahawi being kept on. I appreciate that sort of integrity is unlikely, but surely not impossible even with the modern Tory party.

Raab FTW

Surely, Raab FML?

CorrectHorseBattery3

I just had a poo

TimS

The party have now tried to brazen it out several times under different leaders, and they keep failing to do so and doing themselves long term damage.

It worked twice for Boris and I think that’s why they keep trying: Priti’s bullying, and Cummings in Durham. It subsequently crashed and burned for them big time multiple times: Owen Paterson, Partygate (several iterations), Chris Pincher. Zahawi is another Paterson-style own goal.

solarflare

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

I just had a poo

Still prefer it in charge to most of the current Cabinet.

HYUFD

If the report is bad for Zahawi I expect Sunak to sack him

HYUFD

Meanwhile, from today's Popbitch

'Playing name games

In PB1095 we asked: "Which of the potential Tory leaders gave himself the supremely icky nickname at a former job 'The King Of Anal'?"

After all the headlines he's endured this week, he's going to have to give up that crown. Surely you can't be that anal if you accidentally overlook a tax bill of £3.7 million...'

No comment...

Cyclefree

On topic for the previous thread

I live in one of the first Red Wall seats to fall to the Tories in 2017. The MP is local. She has increased her majority at every GE since then.

However she will be out next time.

Why?

1. She's nice enough. But useless. Letters/emails go unanswered or you just get a boilerplate reply. She does not get involved in worthwhile local initiatives even when neighbouring Tory MPs do - and get some local credit for doing so. Husband is involved in a number of these and finds that her response is always to say "ooh yes, good idea" and then do the square root of fuck all. The contrast with the Tory MP in the next constituency let alone Tim Farron is not to her advantage. At all.

2. There is some money coming for the area but it is so slow that people will not see any visible improvement by the time of the next GE.

3. The local Tory councillors are a bunch of utterly useless tossers. Neither use nor ornament. (BTW I have been asked whether I want to be an independent councillor - there is a local grouping that wants to fire rockets up the arses of these people - and am thinking about it.) Who the hell is going to campaign for the Tories next time?

4. Some things have got worse. GP practices. Dentistry.

5. The local council reorganisation leaves this area out in the cold. Again.

6. This used to be an area where in some wards no-one bothered to campaign against the Tories. Now Labour have won loads in the local elections and come close in my ward, partly because those standing have been energetic and helpful. The Labour councillor in the local town is very good and sensible. So people look at him and think that Labour deserve a chance.

7. People gave Tories a chance in 2017. They've had 6 years. Even if they get another 2 years what have they got to show for it locally?

8. A sense of fairness in the sense of - it's time to give the other lot a go as this lot are exhausted/crooked/been here too long.

Sunil_Prasannan

Gardenwalker said:

Brazing?

I thought this place had standards.
(Flounces off).

Yorkshire dialect, most probably.

dixiedean

Brazing it out?
I'd put a small steak on it.

rcs1000

Hmmmm...

Currently failing to get the new SSL certificate installed

There may be more downtime

rcs1000

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm...

Currently failing to get the new SSL certificate installed

There may be more downtime

Need lunch before trying again

Foxy

dixiedean said:

Brazing it out?
I'd put a small steak on it.

Important in life to understand the difference between brazier and brassiere. I have confidence that @TSE does

IanB2

dixiedean said:

Brazing it out?
I'd put a small steak on it.

Make him walk over hot coals, and see if his feet are burned, medieval style?

Stuartinromford

Cyclefree said:

On topic for the previous thread

I live in one of the first Red Wall seats to fall to the Tories in 2017. The MP is local. She has increased her majority at every GE since then.

However she will be out next time.

Why?

1. She's nice enough. But useless. Letters/emails go unanswered or you just get a boilerplate reply. She does not get involved in worthwhile local initiatives even when neighbouring Tory MPs do - and get some local credit for doing so. Husband is involved in a number of these and finds that her response is always to say "ooh yes, good idea" and then do the square root of fuck all. The contrast with the Tory MP in the next constituency let alone Tim Farron is not to her advantage. At all.

2. There is some money coming for the area but it is so slow that people will not see any visible improvement by the time of the next GE.

3. The local Tory councillors are a bunch of utterly useless tossers. Neither use nor ornament. (BTW I have been asked whether I want to be an independent councillor - there is a local grouping that wants to fire rockets up the arses of these people - and am thinking about it.) Who the hell is going to campaign for the Tories next time?

4. Some things have got worse. GP practices. Dentistry.

5. The local council reorganisation leaves this area out in the cold. Again.

6. This used to be an area where in some wards no-one bothered to campaign against the Tories. Now Labour have won loads in the local elections and come close in my ward, partly because those standing have been energetic and helpful. The Labour councillor in the local town is very good and sensible. So people look at him and think that Labour deserve a chance.

7. People gave Tories a chance in 2017. They've had 6 years. Even if they get another 2 years what have they got to show for it locally?

8. A sense of fairness in the sense of - it's time to give the other lot a go as this lot are exhausted/crooked/been here too long.

And the curious thing is that there's not much anger in that list. It was one of the funny things about 1997, how the anger had dissipated before then. Once people have taken the decision to vote for the Otherlot Party, there's no reason to be angry any more.

IanB2

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

On topic for the previous thread

I live in one of the first Red Wall seats to fall to the Tories in 2017. The MP is local. She has increased her majority at every GE since then.

However she will be out next time.

Why?

1. She's nice enough. But useless. Letters/emails go unanswered or you just get a boilerplate reply. She does not get involved in worthwhile local initiatives even when neighbouring Tory MPs do - and get some local credit for doing so. Husband is involved in a number of these and finds that her response is always to say "ooh yes, good idea" and then do the square root of fuck all. The contrast with the Tory MP in the next constituency let alone Tim Farron is not to her advantage. At all.

2. There is some money coming for the area but it is so slow that people will not see any visible improvement by the time of the next GE.

3. The local Tory councillors are a bunch of utterly useless tossers. Neither use nor ornament. (BTW I have been asked whether I want to be an independent councillor - there is a local grouping that wants to fire rockets up the arses of these people - and am thinking about it.) Who the hell is going to campaign for the Tories next time?

4. Some things have got worse. GP practices. Dentistry.

5. The local council reorganisation leaves this area out in the cold. Again.

6. This used to be an area where in some wards no-one bothered to campaign against the Tories. Now Labour have won loads in the local elections and come close in my ward, partly because those standing have been energetic and helpful. The Labour councillor in the local town is very good and sensible. So people look at him and think that Labour deserve a chance.

7. People gave Tories a chance in 2017. They've had 6 years. Even if they get another 2 years what have they got to show for it locally?

8. A sense of fairness in the sense of - it's time to give the other lot a go as this lot are exhausted/crooked/been here too long.

And the curious thing is that there's not much anger in that list. It was one of the funny things about 1997, how the anger had dissipated before then. Once people have taken the decision to vote for the Otherlot Party, there's no reason to be angry any more.

I stayed up that entire night, and remember still being happy and enthusiastic when the sun came up over the town hall in the morning; and I didn’t even vote Labour. Of course, we were quickly disappointed, but that night was one of genuine happiness and relief for many people, and that it had been such a long time in coming simply heightened the significance of the moment.

Sunil_Prasannan

BOYCOTT YOUGOV!

Leon

Point of Order FPT

Rod Stewart had one of the greatest voices in pop music

His peers say so. “He often recorded terrible songs, but there was always The Voice”

He could inject great pathos into possibly mawkish songs: “Sailing”, and he turned good songs into all-time-classics: “Maggie May”

Foxy

IanB2 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

On topic for the previous thread

I live in one of the first Red Wall seats to fall to the Tories in 2017. The MP is local. She has increased her majority at every GE since then.

However she will be out next time.

Why?

1. She's nice enough. But useless. Letters/emails go unanswered or you just get a boilerplate reply. She does not get involved in worthwhile local initiatives even when neighbouring Tory MPs do - and get some local credit for doing so. Husband is involved in a number of these and finds that her response is always to say "ooh yes, good idea" and then do the square root of fuck all. The contrast with the Tory MP in the next constituency let alone Tim Farron is not to her advantage. At all.

2. There is some money coming for the area but it is so slow that people will not see any visible improvement by the time of the next GE.

3. The local Tory councillors are a bunch of utterly useless tossers. Neither use nor ornament. (BTW I have been asked whether I want to be an independent councillor - there is a local grouping that wants to fire rockets up the arses of these people - and am thinking about it.) Who the hell is going to campaign for the Tories next time?

4. Some things have got worse. GP practices. Dentistry.

5. The local council reorganisation leaves this area out in the cold. Again.

6. This used to be an area where in some wards no-one bothered to campaign against the Tories. Now Labour have won loads in the local elections and come close in my ward, partly because those standing have been energetic and helpful. The Labour councillor in the local town is very good and sensible. So people look at him and think that Labour deserve a chance.

7. People gave Tories a chance in 2017. They've had 6 years. Even if they get another 2 years what have they got to show for it locally?

8. A sense of fairness in the sense of - it's time to give the other lot a go as this lot are exhausted/crooked/been here too long.

And the curious thing is that there's not much anger in that list. It was one of the funny things about 1997, how the anger had dissipated before then. Once people have taken the decision to vote for the Otherlot Party, there's no reason to be angry any more.

I stayed up that entire night, and remember still being happy and enthusiastic when the sun came up over the town hall in the morning; and I didn’t even vote Labour. Of course, we were quickly disappointed, but that night was one of genuine happiness and relief for many people, and that it had been such a long time in coming simply heightened the significance.

I stayed up all night too around a friends house. What a beautiful day of promise it was. It took me a while for it to wear off.

I don't think there will be such joy when Starmer sweeps to power.

TheValiant

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

I just had a poo

Better out than in.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

Brazing?

I thought this place had standards.
(Flounces off).

I do have some standards it's just they are lower than everyone else's standards.

That sounds like a challenge. Can anyone go lower?

HYUFD

Leon said:

Point of Order FPT

Rod Stewart had one of the greatest voices in pop music

His peers say so. “He often recorded terrible songs, but there was always The Voice”

He could inject great pathos into possibly mawkish songs: “Sailing”, and he turned good songs into all-time-classics: “Maggie May”

Sir Rod lives in a mansion in Sheering, about 15 mins from us (as well as Florida of course), not bad for a one time grave digger

Leon

Rod Stewart also wrote The Killing of Georgie. Didn’t just sing it beautifully, also wrote it. Probably the most powerful musical protest against homophobia in existence. Because it is so simple, yet so touching

Sic Transit Gloria Mundi

IanB2

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

On topic for the previous thread

I live in one of the first Red Wall seats to fall to the Tories in 2017. The MP is local. She has increased her majority at every GE since then.

However she will be out next time.

Why?

1. She's nice enough. But useless. Letters/emails go unanswered or you just get a boilerplate reply. She does not get involved in worthwhile local initiatives even when neighbouring Tory MPs do - and get some local credit for doing so. Husband is involved in a number of these and finds that her response is always to say "ooh yes, good idea" and then do the square root of fuck all. The contrast with the Tory MP in the next constituency let alone Tim Farron is not to her advantage. At all.

2. There is some money coming for the area but it is so slow that people will not see any visible improvement by the time of the next GE.

3. The local Tory councillors are a bunch of utterly useless tossers. Neither use nor ornament. (BTW I have been asked whether I want to be an independent councillor - there is a local grouping that wants to fire rockets up the arses of these people - and am thinking about it.) Who the hell is going to campaign for the Tories next time?

4. Some things have got worse. GP practices. Dentistry.

5. The local council reorganisation leaves this area out in the cold. Again.

6. This used to be an area where in some wards no-one bothered to campaign against the Tories. Now Labour have won loads in the local elections and come close in my ward, partly because those standing have been energetic and helpful. The Labour councillor in the local town is very good and sensible. So people look at him and think that Labour deserve a chance.

7. People gave Tories a chance in 2017. They've had 6 years. Even if they get another 2 years what have they got to show for it locally?

8. A sense of fairness in the sense of - it's time to give the other lot a go as this lot are exhausted/crooked/been here too long.

And the curious thing is that there's not much anger in that list. It was one of the funny things about 1997, how the anger had dissipated before then. Once people have taken the decision to vote for the Otherlot Party, there's no reason to be angry any more.

I stayed up that entire night, and remember still being happy and enthusiastic when the sun came up over the town hall in the morning; and I didn’t even vote Labour. Of course, we were quickly disappointed, but that night was one of genuine happiness and relief for many people, and that it had been such a long time in coming simply heightened the significance.

I stayed up all night too around a friends house. What a beautiful day of promise it was. It took me a while for it to wear off.

I don't think there will be such joy when Starmer sweeps to power.

But there’ll nevertheless be considerable relief…

WhisperingOracle

Rod Stewart, horse going to the toilet, it's been all action while I've been away, I can see.

All Labour needs now is for Jim Davidson and Paul Daniels to desert the Tory fold too.

stodge

IanB2 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

On topic for the previous thread

I live in one of the first Red Wall seats to fall to the Tories in 2017. The MP is local. She has increased her majority at every GE since then.

However she will be out next time.

Why?

1. She's nice enough. But useless. Letters/emails go unanswered or you just get a boilerplate reply. She does not get involved in worthwhile local initiatives even when neighbouring Tory MPs do - and get some local credit for doing so. Husband is involved in a number of these and finds that her response is always to say "ooh yes, good idea" and then do the square root of fuck all. The contrast with the Tory MP in the next constituency let alone Tim Farron is not to her advantage. At all.

2. There is some money coming for the area but it is so slow that people will not see any visible improvement by the time of the next GE.

3. The local Tory councillors are a bunch of utterly useless tossers. Neither use nor ornament. (BTW I have been asked whether I want to be an independent councillor - there is a local grouping that wants to fire rockets up the arses of these people - and am thinking about it.) Who the hell is going to campaign for the Tories next time?

4. Some things have got worse. GP practices. Dentistry.

5. The local council reorganisation leaves this area out in the cold. Again.

6. This used to be an area where in some wards no-one bothered to campaign against the Tories. Now Labour have won loads in the local elections and come close in my ward, partly because those standing have been energetic and helpful. The Labour councillor in the local town is very good and sensible. So people look at him and think that Labour deserve a chance.

7. People gave Tories a chance in 2017. They've had 6 years. Even if they get another 2 years what have they got to show for it locally?

8. A sense of fairness in the sense of - it's time to give the other lot a go as this lot are exhausted/crooked/been here too long.

And the curious thing is that there's not much anger in that list. It was one of the funny things about 1997, how the anger had dissipated before then. Once people have taken the decision to vote for the Otherlot Party, there's no reason to be angry any more.

I stayed up that entire night, and remember still being happy and enthusiastic when the sun came up over the town hall in the morning; and I didn’t even vote Labour. Of course, we were quickly disappointed, but that night was one of genuine happiness and relief for many people, and that it had been such a long time in coming simply heightened the significance of the moment.

I spoke to a couple of Conservative campaigners a few days later and their reaction was the same - people weren't slamming the door in their faces or setting the dogs on them.

It sort of enforced a myth things weren't going to be as bad as the polls suggested.

In a way, it made the actual result far more of a psychological shock.

Leon

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Point of Order FPT

Rod Stewart had one of the greatest voices in pop music

His peers say so. “He often recorded terrible songs, but there was always The Voice”

He could inject great pathos into possibly mawkish songs: “Sailing”, and he turned good songs into all-time-classics: “Maggie May”

Sir Rod lives in a mansion in Sheering, about 15 mins from us (as well as Florida of course), not bad for a one time grave digger

Sir Rod is a dude.

I once saw him sitting in an insanely pricey open top Ferrari trying to reverse park in gentrified
Wapping, he looked like a bewildered old docker trying to work out what had happened to the old neighbourhood

The melancholy impression was ameliorated by the gorgeous blonde girlfriend, at least 45 years younger, sitting next to him

Theuniondivvie

IanB2 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

On topic for the previous thread

I live in one of the first Red Wall seats to fall to the Tories in 2017. The MP is local. She has increased her majority at every GE since then.

However she will be out next time.

Why?

1. She's nice enough. But useless. Letters/emails go unanswered or you just get a boilerplate reply. She does not get involved in worthwhile local initiatives even when neighbouring Tory MPs do - and get some local credit for doing so. Husband is involved in a number of these and finds that her response is always to say "ooh yes, good idea" and then do the square root of fuck all. The contrast with the Tory MP in the next constituency let alone Tim Farron is not to her advantage. At all.

2. There is some money coming for the area but it is so slow that people will not see any visible improvement by the time of the next GE.

3. The local Tory councillors are a bunch of utterly useless tossers. Neither use nor ornament. (BTW I have been asked whether I want to be an independent councillor - there is a local grouping that wants to fire rockets up the arses of these people - and am thinking about it.) Who the hell is going to campaign for the Tories next time?

4. Some things have got worse. GP practices. Dentistry.

5. The local council reorganisation leaves this area out in the cold. Again.

6. This used to be an area where in some wards no-one bothered to campaign against the Tories. Now Labour have won loads in the local elections and come close in my ward, partly because those standing have been energetic and helpful. The Labour councillor in the local town is very good and sensible. So people look at him and think that Labour deserve a chance.

7. People gave Tories a chance in 2017. They've had 6 years. Even if they get another 2 years what have they got to show for it locally?

8. A sense of fairness in the sense of - it's time to give the other lot a go as this lot are exhausted/crooked/been here too long.

And the curious thing is that there's not much anger in that list. It was one of the funny things about 1997, how the anger had dissipated before then. Once people have taken the decision to vote for the Otherlot Party, there's no reason to be angry any more.

I stayed up that entire night, and remember still being happy and enthusiastic when the sun came up over the town hall in the morning; and I didn’t even vote Labour. Of course, we were quickly disappointed, but that night was one of genuine happiness and relief for many people, and that it had been such a long time in coming simply heightened the significance of the moment.

It was a weird moment, or series of moments. I remember being in a pub crammed with quite far lefty Glaswegian arty folk (one them had had a subscription to the Morning Post at one point in his life) on the Friday after the GE and they were full of joy. I’d pretty much fallen out of love with Labour after the accession of Blair but I didn’t have it in me to kill their buzz.

algarkirk

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

On topic for the previous thread

I live in one of the first Red Wall seats to fall to the Tories in 2017. The MP is local. She has increased her majority at every GE since then.

However she will be out next time.

Why?

1. She's nice enough. But useless. Letters/emails go unanswered or you just get a boilerplate reply. She does not get involved in worthwhile local initiatives even when neighbouring Tory MPs do - and get some local credit for doing so. Husband is involved in a number of these and finds that her response is always to say "ooh yes, good idea" and then do the square root of fuck all. The contrast with the Tory MP in the next constituency let alone Tim Farron is not to her advantage. At all.

2. There is some money coming for the area but it is so slow that people will not see any visible improvement by the time of the next GE.

3. The local Tory councillors are a bunch of utterly useless tossers. Neither use nor ornament. (BTW I have been asked whether I want to be an independent councillor - there is a local grouping that wants to fire rockets up the arses of these people - and am thinking about it.) Who the hell is going to campaign for the Tories next time?

4. Some things have got worse. GP practices. Dentistry.

5. The local council reorganisation leaves this area out in the cold. Again.

6. This used to be an area where in some wards no-one bothered to campaign against the Tories. Now Labour have won loads in the local elections and come close in my ward, partly because those standing have been energetic and helpful. The Labour councillor in the local town is very good and sensible. So people look at him and think that Labour deserve a chance.

7. People gave Tories a chance in 2017. They've had 6 years. Even if they get another 2 years what have they got to show for it locally?

8. A sense of fairness in the sense of - it's time to give the other lot a go as this lot are exhausted/crooked/been here too long.

And the curious thing is that there's not much anger in that list. It was one of the funny things about 1997, how the anger had dissipated before then. Once people have taken the decision to vote for the Otherlot Party, there's no reason to be angry any more.

All politics is relative of course; and in voting (or not) you have to put the options alongside and compare the meerkat. In 1997 putting major's Tories against Blair's Labour I had no real hesitation in voting Tory. Today, putting the Tories against SKS's Labour (and SKS is no Blair) the Tories are simply nowhere. I could not vote for them under any circumstances at the moment.

It seems to me that, oddly, all the other parties are acting as if they have nothing really to win. Tories and SNP are both acting as if there is no real hope for their near future. If there were NZ would have been out ages ago; and Nicola would not be making egregious and unforced errors. The LDs may as well not exist they are so invisible.

kinabalu

Leon said:

Rod Stewart also wrote The Killing of Georgie. Didn’t just sing it beautifully, also wrote it. Probably the most powerful musical protest against homophobia in existence. Because it is so simple, yet so touching

Sic Transit Gloria Mundi

Rod hasn't died, has he? I thought he'd just decided to vote Labour.

Leon

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Rod Stewart also wrote The Killing of Georgie. Didn’t just sing it beautifully, also wrote it. Probably the most powerful musical protest against homophobia in existence. Because it is so simple, yet so touching

Sic Transit Gloria Mundi

Rod hasn't died, has he? I thought he'd just decided to vote Labour.

For many of us, it is basically the same

THE ROD HAS GONE

IanB2

algarkirk said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

On topic for the previous thread

I live in one of the first Red Wall seats to fall to the Tories in 2017. The MP is local. She has increased her majority at every GE since then.

However she will be out next time.

Why?

1. She's nice enough. But useless. Letters/emails go unanswered or you just get a boilerplate reply. She does not get involved in worthwhile local initiatives even when neighbouring Tory MPs do - and get some local credit for doing so. Husband is involved in a number of these and finds that her response is always to say "ooh yes, good idea" and then do the square root of fuck all. The contrast with the Tory MP in the next constituency let alone Tim Farron is not to her advantage. At all.

2. There is some money coming for the area but it is so slow that people will not see any visible improvement by the time of the next GE.

3. The local Tory councillors are a bunch of utterly useless tossers. Neither use nor ornament. (BTW I have been asked whether I want to be an independent councillor - there is a local grouping that wants to fire rockets up the arses of these people - and am thinking about it.) Who the hell is going to campaign for the Tories next time?

4. Some things have got worse. GP practices. Dentistry.

5. The local council reorganisation leaves this area out in the cold. Again.

6. This used to be an area where in some wards no-one bothered to campaign against the Tories. Now Labour have won loads in the local elections and come close in my ward, partly because those standing have been energetic and helpful. The Labour councillor in the local town is very good and sensible. So people look at him and think that Labour deserve a chance.

7. People gave Tories a chance in 2017. They've had 6 years. Even if they get another 2 years what have they got to show for it locally?

8. A sense of fairness in the sense of - it's time to give the other lot a go as this lot are exhausted/crooked/been here too long.

And the curious thing is that there's not much anger in that list. It was one of the funny things about 1997, how the anger had dissipated before then. Once people have taken the decision to vote for the Otherlot Party, there's no reason to be angry any more.

All politics is relative of course; and in voting (or not) you have to put the options alongside and compare the meerkat. In 1997 putting major's Tories against Blair's Labour I had no real hesitation in voting Tory. Today, putting the Tories against SKS's Labour (and SKS is no Blair) the Tories are simply nowhere. I could not vote for them under any circumstances at the moment.

It seems to me that, oddly, all the other parties are acting as if they have nothing really to win. Tories and SNP are both acting as if there is no real hope for their near future. If there were NZ would have been out ages ago; and Nicola would not be making egregious and unforced errors. The LDs may as well not exist they are so invisible.

One of their big mistakes in 2019 was pouring a lot of money into futile national (or nationwide) campaigning, including tons of direct mail from someone who pops in here now and again. I’m sure that won’t be happening again, and would expect all their effort and resources to be ruthlessly targeted and local. If you live in one of their chosen spots, I’d hope you’d already be seeing it, but for the rest of us, yes, they’re pretty invisible.

SeaShantyIrish2

So Rod Stewart has left the embrace of the Tory Party?

HOWEVER, they still have Cliff Richards! Don't they?

Foxy

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Point of Order FPT

Rod Stewart had one of the greatest voices in pop music

His peers say so. “He often recorded terrible songs, but there was always The Voice”

He could inject great pathos into possibly mawkish songs: “Sailing”, and he turned good songs into all-time-classics: “Maggie May”

Sir Rod lives in a mansion in Sheering, about 15 mins from us (as well as Florida of course), not bad for a one time grave digger

Sir Rod is a dude.

I once saw him sitting in an insanely pricey open top Ferrari trying to reverse park in gentrified
Wapping, he looked like a bewildered old docker trying to work out what had happened to the old neighbourhood

The melancholy impression was ameliorated by the gorgeous blonde girlfriend, at least 45 years younger, sitting next to him

Blondes? Pah! Most importantly, he has a fabulous train set. What is the point of wealth if you can't squander it on eccentric hobbies?

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-50403561

LostPassword

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

Brazing?

I thought this place had standards.
(Flounces off).

I do have some standards it's just they are lower than everyone else's standards.

That sounds like a challenge. Can anyone go lower?

One of our posters is giving us updates on his bowel movements. If that isn't lower standards than TSE then TSE's standards are approaching the Earth's core.

jamesdoyle

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Point of Order FPT

Rod Stewart had one of the greatest voices in pop music

His peers say so. “He often recorded terrible songs, but there was always The Voice”

He could inject great pathos into possibly mawkish songs: “Sailing”, and he turned good songs into all-time-classics: “Maggie May”

Sir Rod lives in a mansion in Sheering, about 15 mins from us (as well as Florida of course), not bad for a one time grave digger

Sir Rod is a dude.

I once saw him sitting in an insanely pricey open top Ferrari trying to reverse park in gentrified
Wapping, he looked like a bewildered old docker trying to work out what had happened to the old neighbourhood

The melancholy impression was ameliorated by the gorgeous blonde girlfriend, at least 45 years younger, sitting next to him

When my wife's family flew back from New Zealand in 1973 or thereabouts (they'd been sailing around the world long story), Rod Stewart sat next to them. My wife was then about 9, and she made Rod cuddle her teddy and sing it a song. Didn't have a clue who he was.

WhisperingOracle

Rod Stewart is the Socrates of the modern world.

SeaShantyIrish2

Foxy said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Point of Order FPT

Rod Stewart had one of the greatest voices in pop music

His peers say so. “He often recorded terrible songs, but there was always The Voice”

He could inject great pathos into possibly mawkish songs: “Sailing”, and he turned good songs into all-time-classics: “Maggie May”

Sir Rod lives in a mansion in Sheering, about 15 mins from us (as well as Florida of course), not bad for a one time grave digger

Sir Rod is a dude.

I once saw him sitting in an insanely pricey open top Ferrari trying to reverse park in gentrified
Wapping, he looked like a bewildered old docker trying to work out what had happened to the old neighbourhood

The melancholy impression was ameliorated by the gorgeous blonde girlfriend, at least 45 years younger, sitting next to him

Blondes? Pah! Most importantly, he has a fabulous train set. What is the point of fabulous wealth if you can't squander it on eccentric hobbies?

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-50403561

Wonder IF Sir Rod enjoys blowing up his model trains crossing bridges & such, as did "Gomez Addams" in the classic "Addams Family" TV show?

dixiedean

This 1997 reminiscing calls for the NYT article on eve of polling.
It gives a very different perspective on expectations and the relative popularity of Blair and Major.

https://www.nytimes.com/1997/04/30/world/writing-seems-to-be-on-the-wall-but-tory-chief-chooses-to-ignore-it.html

rcs1000

SSL certificate updated.

All good now until Jan 2024.

TimS

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

On topic for the previous thread

I live in one of the first Red Wall seats to fall to the Tories in 2017. The MP is local. She has increased her majority at every GE since then.

However she will be out next time.

Why?

1. She's nice enough. But useless. Letters/emails go unanswered or you just get a boilerplate reply. She does not get involved in worthwhile local initiatives even when neighbouring Tory MPs do - and get some local credit for doing so. Husband is involved in a number of these and finds that her response is always to say "ooh yes, good idea" and then do the square root of fuck all. The contrast with the Tory MP in the next constituency let alone Tim Farron is not to her advantage. At all.

2. There is some money coming for the area but it is so slow that people will not see any visible improvement by the time of the next GE.

3. The local Tory councillors are a bunch of utterly useless tossers. Neither use nor ornament. (BTW I have been asked whether I want to be an independent councillor - there is a local grouping that wants to fire rockets up the arses of these people - and am thinking about it.) Who the hell is going to campaign for the Tories next time?

4. Some things have got worse. GP practices. Dentistry.

5. The local council reorganisation leaves this area out in the cold. Again.

6. This used to be an area where in some wards no-one bothered to campaign against the Tories. Now Labour have won loads in the local elections and come close in my ward, partly because those standing have been energetic and helpful. The Labour councillor in the local town is very good and sensible. So people look at him and think that Labour deserve a chance.

7. People gave Tories a chance in 2017. They've had 6 years. Even if they get another 2 years what have they got to show for it locally?

8. A sense of fairness in the sense of - it's time to give the other lot a go as this lot are exhausted/crooked/been here too long.

And the curious thing is that there's not much anger in that list. It was one of the funny things about 1997, how the anger had dissipated before then. Once people have taken the decision to vote for the Otherlot Party, there's no reason to be angry any more.

I stayed up that entire night, and remember still being happy and enthusiastic when the sun came up over the town hall in the morning; and I didn’t even vote Labour. Of course, we were quickly disappointed, but that night was one of genuine happiness and relief for many people, and that it had been such a long time in coming simply heightened the significance.

I stayed up all night too around a friends house. What a beautiful day of promise it was. It took me a while for it to wear off.

I don't think there will be such joy when Starmer sweeps to power.

But there’ll nevertheless be considerable relief…

The world is just a much less optimistic place than it was in the 1990s, as is Britain (sorry, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland). In 97 it was possible to imagine a glorious future.

The economy was doing OK. The first tech boom was just taking off. 9/11 hadn’t happened, Russia and China seemed harmless enough. Oh and most of us here were young.

Now even if the second coming of the messiah coincided with the next election we wouldn’t be that cheerful.

LostPassword

jamesdoyle said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Point of Order FPT

Rod Stewart had one of the greatest voices in pop music

His peers say so. “He often recorded terrible songs, but there was always The Voice”

He could inject great pathos into possibly mawkish songs: “Sailing”, and he turned good songs into all-time-classics: “Maggie May”

Sir Rod lives in a mansion in Sheering, about 15 mins from us (as well as Florida of course), not bad for a one time grave digger

Sir Rod is a dude.

I once saw him sitting in an insanely pricey open top Ferrari trying to reverse park in gentrified
Wapping, he looked like a bewildered old docker trying to work out what had happened to the old neighbourhood

The melancholy impression was ameliorated by the gorgeous blonde girlfriend, at least 45 years younger, sitting next to him

When my wife's family flew back from New Zealand in 1973 or thereabouts (they'd been sailing around the world long story), Rod Stewart sat next to them. My wife was then about 9, and she made Rod cuddle her teddy and sing it a song. Didn't have a clue who he was.

There's a hospital in Galway in need of a visit from Rod Stewart.
https://www.rte.ie/news/connacht/2023/0126/1352005-teddy-bear-hospital-galway/

SeaShantyIrish2

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Rod Stewart also wrote The Killing of Georgie. Didn’t just sing it beautifully, also wrote it. Probably the most powerful musical protest against homophobia in existence. Because it is so simple, yet so touching

Sic Transit Gloria Mundi

Rod hasn't died, has he? I thought he'd just decided to vote Labour.

For many of us, it is basically the same

THE ROD HAS GONE

1988 - Margaret Thatcher loses her Willy

2023 - Rishi Sunak loses his Rod

WhisperingOracle

If a true believer like Sir James Dyson were to defect to the Reform Party, ofcourse, that would be like Plato joining the Socratic exposition and peroration of Sir Rod.

HYUFD

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Rod Stewart also wrote The Killing of Georgie. Didn’t just sing it beautifully, also wrote it. Probably the most powerful musical protest against homophobia in existence. Because it is so simple, yet so touching

Sic Transit Gloria Mundi

Rod hasn't died, has he? I thought he'd just decided to vote Labour.

For many of us, it is basically the same

THE ROD HAS GONE

Rod Stewart attended events with Blair, like most rich rock stars he is not a died in the wool Tory, he just normally votes Tory to keep his taxes low while being relativey socially liberal. If he thinks Labour has not got a socialist leader and the Tories have been in too long he will give Labour a go

https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-penny-lancaster-rod-stewart-and-tony-blair-seen-here-attending-daily-19771234.html

SeaShantyIrish2

rcs1000 said:

SSL certificate updated.

All good now until Jan 2024.

All good IF you REALLY are Smithson the Younger? And NOT an AI Bot who has assumed control over PB?!?

dixiedean

WhisperingOracle said:

Rod Stewart is the Socrates of the modern world.

Nah.
I've seen him play football.

rcs1000

jamesdoyle said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Point of Order FPT

Rod Stewart had one of the greatest voices in pop music

His peers say so. “He often recorded terrible songs, but there was always The Voice”

He could inject great pathos into possibly mawkish songs: “Sailing”, and he turned good songs into all-time-classics: “Maggie May”

Sir Rod lives in a mansion in Sheering, about 15 mins from us (as well as Florida of course), not bad for a one time grave digger

Sir Rod is a dude.

I once saw him sitting in an insanely pricey open top Ferrari trying to reverse park in gentrified
Wapping, he looked like a bewildered old docker trying to work out what had happened to the old neighbourhood

The melancholy impression was ameliorated by the gorgeous blonde girlfriend, at least 45 years younger, sitting next to him

When my wife's family flew back from New Zealand in 1973 or thereabouts (they'd been sailing around the world long story), Rod Stewart sat next to them. My wife was then about 9, and she made Rod cuddle her teddy and sing it a song. Didn't have a clue who he was.

You married early.

LostPassword

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

rcs1000 said:

SSL certificate updated.

All good now until Jan 2024.

All good IF you REALLY are Smithson the Younger? And NOT an AI Bot who has assumed control over PB?!?

The rcs1000 bot we can deal with. It's the next-generation rcs2000 bot that we have to worry about.

dixiedean

Am I the only one who was blissfully ignorant of the political views of Rod before today?
If you'd asked me to name ageing Tory rock stars it would have been Phil Collins and Kate Bush. And that's it.

IanB2

rcs1000 said:

SSL certificate updated.

All good now until Jan 2024.

I very much doubt that last prediction….

I spent the afternoon trying to work out how to enable secure boot and TPM2.0 on my desktop. Which I achieved in the end, with a small sense of accomplishment, even though I haven’t a clue what I have actually done.

rcs1000

jamesdoyle said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Point of Order FPT

Rod Stewart had one of the greatest voices in pop music

His peers say so. “He often recorded terrible songs, but there was always The Voice”

He could inject great pathos into possibly mawkish songs: “Sailing”, and he turned good songs into all-time-classics: “Maggie May”

Sir Rod lives in a mansion in Sheering, about 15 mins from us (as well as Florida of course), not bad for a one time grave digger

Sir Rod is a dude.

I once saw him sitting in an insanely pricey open top Ferrari trying to reverse park in gentrified
Wapping, he looked like a bewildered old docker trying to work out what had happened to the old neighbourhood

The melancholy impression was ameliorated by the gorgeous blonde girlfriend, at least 45 years younger, sitting next to him

When my wife's family flew back from New Zealand in 1973 or thereabouts (they'd been sailing around the world long story), Rod Stewart sat next to them. My wife was then about 9, and she made Rod cuddle her teddy and sing it a song. Didn't have a clue who he was.

My daughter was about six - and completely animal mad - when she met a man with two or three really beautiful dogs. She (and her grandmother) fussed over the dogs for about five minutes until my wife arrived*.

The bemused owner, who had been completely ignored, was Billy Joel.

* My wife was probably in her late 30s, early 40s. She wasn't a child bride.

rcs1000

IanB2 said:

rcs1000 said:

SSL certificate updated.

All good now until Jan 2024.

I very much doubt that last prediction….

I spent the afternoon trying to work out how to enable secure boot and TPM2.0 on my desktop. Which I achieved in the end, with a small sense of accomplishment, even though I haven’t a clue what I have actually done.

I need to update the server to the latest LTS version of Ubuntu. But that's a task for another day.

Scott_xP

@hendopolis: I: ⁦@nadhimzahawi⁩ hands over tax returns - as Tories urge him to go now #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1618732411272962050/photo/1

IanB2

TimS said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

On topic for the previous thread

I live in one of the first Red Wall seats to fall to the Tories in 2017. The MP is local. She has increased her majority at every GE since then.

However she will be out next time.

Why?

1. She's nice enough. But useless. Letters/emails go unanswered or you just get a boilerplate reply. She does not get involved in worthwhile local initiatives even when neighbouring Tory MPs do - and get some local credit for doing so. Husband is involved in a number of these and finds that her response is always to say "ooh yes, good idea" and then do the square root of fuck all. The contrast with the Tory MP in the next constituency let alone Tim Farron is not to her advantage. At all.

2. There is some money coming for the area but it is so slow that people will not see any visible improvement by the time of the next GE.

3. The local Tory councillors are a bunch of utterly useless tossers. Neither use nor ornament. (BTW I have been asked whether I want to be an independent councillor - there is a local grouping that wants to fire rockets up the arses of these people - and am thinking about it.) Who the hell is going to campaign for the Tories next time?

4. Some things have got worse. GP practices. Dentistry.

5. The local council reorganisation leaves this area out in the cold. Again.

6. This used to be an area where in some wards no-one bothered to campaign against the Tories. Now Labour have won loads in the local elections and come close in my ward, partly because those standing have been energetic and helpful. The Labour councillor in the local town is very good and sensible. So people look at him and think that Labour deserve a chance.

7. People gave Tories a chance in 2017. They've had 6 years. Even if they get another 2 years what have they got to show for it locally?

8. A sense of fairness in the sense of - it's time to give the other lot a go as this lot are exhausted/crooked/been here too long.

And the curious thing is that there's not much anger in that list. It was one of the funny things about 1997, how the anger had dissipated before then. Once people have taken the decision to vote for the Otherlot Party, there's no reason to be angry any more.

I stayed up that entire night, and remember still being happy and enthusiastic when the sun came up over the town hall in the morning; and I didn’t even vote Labour. Of course, we were quickly disappointed, but that night was one of genuine happiness and relief for many people, and that it had been such a long time in coming simply heightened the significance.

I stayed up all night too around a friends house. What a beautiful day of promise it was. It took me a while for it to wear off.

I don't think there will be such joy when Starmer sweeps to power.

But there’ll nevertheless be considerable relief…

The world is just a much less optimistic place than it was in the 1990s, as is Britain (sorry, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland). In 97 it was possible to imagine a glorious future.

The economy was doing OK. The first tech boom was just taking off. 9/11 hadn’t happened, Russia and China seemed harmless enough. Oh and most of us here were young.

Now even if the second coming of the messiah coincided with the next election we wouldn’t be that cheerful.

There would be nothing cheerful about so many sensible, intelligent people being suddenly proved wrong, for sure….

Richard_Tyndall

FPT

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

The median age of the average voter is now about 50 of course

The median potential voter or the median voting voter?

The latter. I occasionally reference the following research undertaken after the 2017 GE:

https://blogs.bath.ac.uk/iprblog/2019/05/21/the-rise-of-the-grey-vote/

Which is worth reading, although here's the excerpt explaining the relevant conclusion:

In 2017, our analysis of the BES data suggests that turnout among over 55s was 83.35%, compared to 58.15% of those under 55. Likewise, turnout was 84.34% vs. 63.06% for over and under 65s respectively. Combining these BES estimates of turnout with LFS estimates of nationality and ONS population estimates, we arrive at the following figures: the over 55s constituted 48.35% of the voting public in 2017, and the over 65s, 30.27%. If we assume that both turnout and the proportion of those disenfranchised due to their nationality remain constant, over 55s will constitute over half of the voting public by 2020 as a result of projected demographic change.

The grey vote is so huge, and contains so many outright homeowners, expectant heirs to property windfalls, and those already in receipt of state pensions or expecting to be so in the near future, that nobody will dare piss them off when it comes to their core interests: the triple lock, keeping house prices buoyant (if necessary through market rigging mechanisms, such as help to buy and refusing to challenge Nimbyism,) and prioritising the taxation of incomes over that of assets and estates.

This, in a nutshell, is why Britain is terminally screwed. Robbed of the ability to tax the old more, all the Government can do to pay for their ever-growing numbers and demands is to tax everyone else completely into the ground. The irony of all this is that 19th century theorists once postulated that democracy could never last for very long, because the great mass of the poor would soon learn to vote to help themselves to all the wealth of the rich, precipitating social collapse. They never anticipated that a great mass of wealthy codgers would actually destroy the state by helping themselves to the wages of their children and grandchildren. But here we are.

Their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them however

Many people don’t have wealthy parents.

I know that’s difficult for you to compute, though, as it appears to be outside the field of your large language model.

Most people have home owning parents though.

The average person is more likely to inherit a house from their parents than become a high earner

You get an allowance of £23k, then after that, the average person's parents is more likely to have their home sold or have a lien put on it to pay their care costs.

Fewer people are going to inherit than they think.

That’s one thing that strikes me. You meet so many later middle aged people with no pension provision who tell you that their house is their pension. Unless they die early, this means that a lot of equity will be spent down to cover day-to-day living costs, meaning that it won’t be available for inheritance and, logically, that property prices should surely fall?

This touches on one of my pet hates. Houses should be laces to live in - homes - not investments or pension plans. I don't blame the people themselves. Successive governments have so screwed over private pensions that the housing market is one of the very few ways many people can provide for their old age. But it shouldn't be that way. Personally, in an ideal world, I want to leave my current house feet first. I have no intention of 'downsizing' nor do I see my house as an investment. I would be delighted if it halved in value as long as it meant the rest of the housing market was doing the same and younger people could actually get on the housing market*.

*Okay I realise from previous discussions that a housing crash would actually be a 'bad thing' for many people and for many reasons but you get the principle. If my house never became a single penny more valuable so that inflation ate into its value and halved it by the time I departed then that would suit me just as well.

HYUFD

dixiedean said:

Am I the only one who was blissfully ignorant of the political views of Rod before today?
If you'd asked me to name ageing Tory rock stars it would have been Phil Collins and Kate Bush. And that's it.

Cilla was a died in the wool Tory too

Pro_Rata

HYUFD said:

Meanwhile, from today's Popbitch

'Playing name games

In PB1095 we asked: "Which of the potential Tory leaders gave himself the supremely icky nickname at a former job 'The King Of Anal'?"

After all the headlines he's endured this week, he's going to have to give up that crown. Surely you can't be that anal if you accidentally overlook a tax bill of £3.7 million...'

No comment...

U OK HYUN?

TimS

IanB2 said:

algarkirk said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

On topic for the previous thread

I live in one of the first Red Wall seats to fall to the Tories in 2017. The MP is local. She has increased her majority at every GE since then.

However she will be out next time.

Why?

1. She's nice enough. But useless. Letters/emails go unanswered or you just get a boilerplate reply. She does not get involved in worthwhile local initiatives even when neighbouring Tory MPs do - and get some local credit for doing so. Husband is involved in a number of these and finds that her response is always to say "ooh yes, good idea" and then do the square root of fuck all. The contrast with the Tory MP in the next constituency let alone Tim Farron is not to her advantage. At all.

2. There is some money coming for the area but it is so slow that people will not see any visible improvement by the time of the next GE.

3. The local Tory councillors are a bunch of utterly useless tossers. Neither use nor ornament. (BTW I have been asked whether I want to be an independent councillor - there is a local grouping that wants to fire rockets up the arses of these people - and am thinking about it.) Who the hell is going to campaign for the Tories next time?

4. Some things have got worse. GP practices. Dentistry.

5. The local council reorganisation leaves this area out in the cold. Again.

6. This used to be an area where in some wards no-one bothered to campaign against the Tories. Now Labour have won loads in the local elections and come close in my ward, partly because those standing have been energetic and helpful. The Labour councillor in the local town is very good and sensible. So people look at him and think that Labour deserve a chance.

7. People gave Tories a chance in 2017. They've had 6 years. Even if they get another 2 years what have they got to show for it locally?

8. A sense of fairness in the sense of - it's time to give the other lot a go as this lot are exhausted/crooked/been here too long.

And the curious thing is that there's not much anger in that list. It was one of the funny things about 1997, how the anger had dissipated before then. Once people have taken the decision to vote for the Otherlot Party, there's no reason to be angry any more.

All politics is relative of course; and in voting (or not) you have to put the options alongside and compare the meerkat. In 1997 putting major's Tories against Blair's Labour I had no real hesitation in voting Tory. Today, putting the Tories against SKS's Labour (and SKS is no Blair) the Tories are simply nowhere. I could not vote for them under any circumstances at the moment.

It seems to me that, oddly, all the other parties are acting as if they have nothing really to win. Tories and SNP are both acting as if there is no real hope for their near future. If there were NZ would have been out ages ago; and Nicola would not be making egregious and unforced errors. The LDs may as well not exist they are so invisible.

One of their big mistakes in 2019 was pouring a lot of money into futile national (or nationwide) campaigning, including tons of direct mail from someone who pops in here now and again. I’m sure that won’t be happening again, and would expect all their effort and resources to be ruthlessly targeted and local. If you live in one of their chosen spots, I’d hope you’d already be seeing it, but for the rest of us, yes, they’re pretty invisible.

Lib Dem campaigning at its best is incremental, lichen like.

Secure some council seats. Use those as a base to win more and eventually win control. Start to target adjacent council areas. Send out leafletters and canvassers from across the borough border.

Then eventually turn the council strength into a competitive position in the parliamentary seat. And so on. Lichen like. Unfortunately now and then someone comes along with a big jet wash and rinses off the lichen, and they have to start again.

eek

Back to HS2

Harry Cole

@MrHarryCole
·
34s
EXC: Inflation blighted HS2 in chaos with delay or scrap of it arriving at Euston.

Construction costs pain means scaling back of the project under live discussion in Whitehall.

Spent last few weeks under bonnet and it's not looking good

— The reality is that Old Oak Common station is probably a better option for most people rather than Euston

HYUFD

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

The median age of the average voter is now about 50 of course

The median potential voter or the median voting voter?

The latter. I occasionally reference the following research undertaken after the 2017 GE:

https://blogs.bath.ac.uk/iprblog/2019/05/21/the-rise-of-the-grey-vote/

Which is worth reading, although here's the excerpt explaining the relevant conclusion:

In 2017, our analysis of the BES data suggests that turnout among over 55s was 83.35%, compared to 58.15% of those under 55. Likewise, turnout was 84.34% vs. 63.06% for over and under 65s respectively. Combining these BES estimates of turnout with LFS estimates of nationality and ONS population estimates, we arrive at the following figures: the over 55s constituted 48.35% of the voting public in 2017, and the over 65s, 30.27%. If we assume that both turnout and the proportion of those disenfranchised due to their nationality remain constant, over 55s will constitute over half of the voting public by 2020 as a result of projected demographic change.

The grey vote is so huge, and contains so many outright homeowners, expectant heirs to property windfalls, and those already in receipt of state pensions or expecting to be so in the near future, that nobody will dare piss them off when it comes to their core interests: the triple lock, keeping house prices buoyant (if necessary through market rigging mechanisms, such as help to buy and refusing to challenge Nimbyism,) and prioritising the taxation of incomes over that of assets and estates.

This, in a nutshell, is why Britain is terminally screwed. Robbed of the ability to tax the old more, all the Government can do to pay for their ever-growing numbers and demands is to tax everyone else completely into the ground. The irony of all this is that 19th century theorists once postulated that democracy could never last for very long, because the great mass of the poor would soon learn to vote to help themselves to all the wealth of the rich, precipitating social collapse. They never anticipated that a great mass of wealthy codgers would actually destroy the state by helping themselves to the wages of their children and grandchildren. But here we are.

Their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them however

Many people don’t have wealthy parents.

I know that’s difficult for you to compute, though, as it appears to be outside the field of your large language model.

Most people have home owning parents though.

The average person is more likely to inherit a house from their parents than become a high earner

You get an allowance of £23k, then after that, the average person's parents is more likely to have their home sold or have a lien put on it to pay their care costs.

Fewer people are going to inherit than they think.

That’s one thing that strikes me. You meet so many later middle aged people with no pension provision who tell you that their house is their pension. Unless they die early, this means that a lot of equity will be spent down to cover day-to-day living costs, meaning that it won’t be available for inheritance and, logically, that property prices should surely fall?

This touches on one of my pet hates. Houses should be laces to live in - homes - not investments or pension plans. I don't blame the people themselves. Successive governments have so screwed over private pensions that the housing market is one of the very few ways many people can provide for their old age. But it shouldn't be that way. Personally, in an ideal world, I want to leave my current house feet first. I have no intention of 'downsizing' nor do I see my house as an investment. I would be delighted if it halved in value as long as it meant the rest of the housing market was doing the same and younger people could actually get on the housing market*.

*Okay I realise from previous discussions that a housing crash would actually be a 'bad thing' for many people and for many reasons but you get the principle. If my house never became a single penny more valuable so that inflation ate into its value and halved it by the time I departed then that would suit me just as well.

The UK actually has more enrolled in workplace pensions than most OECD nations.

Outside London and the Home Counties house prices are much more affordable to the young anyway and less of an asset, though even there the average house price has in most years this century risen in percentage terms by more than the average wage

Scott_xP

@thetimes: 🔺NEW: Nadhim Zahawi earned at least £1.3 million from interests in Kurdistan after cultivating close links with a p… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618734255567142913

Richard_Tyndall

dixiedean said:

Am I the only one who was blissfully ignorant of the political views of Rod before today?
If you'd asked me to name ageing Tory rock stars it would have been Phil Collins and Kate Bush. And that's it.

Bryan Ferry & Bill Wyman both fall into that category apparently

MightyAlex

Scott_xP said:

@thetimes: 🔺NEW: Nadhim Zahawi earned at least £1.3 million from interests in Kurdistan after cultivating close links with a p… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618734255567142913

I remember Private Eye covering this stuff, dodgy oil company links.

kle4

MightyAlex said:

Scott_xP said:

@thetimes: 🔺NEW: Nadhim Zahawi earned at least £1.3 million from interests in Kurdistan after cultivating close links with a p… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618734255567142913

I remember Private Eye covering this stuff, dodgy oil company links.

Astonishing.

You can have non-dodgy oil company links?

Scott_xP

...

solarflare

eek said:

Back to HS2

Harry Cole

@MrHarryCole
·
34s
EXC: Inflation blighted HS2 in chaos with delay or scrap of it arriving at Euston.

Construction costs pain means scaling back of the project under live discussion in Whitehall.

Spent last few weeks under bonnet and it's not looking good

— The reality is that Old Oak Common station is probably a better option for most people rather than Euston

The rest of the planet is going to be throwing out its maglevs and hyperloops for those new fangled teleporters before some half-finished HS2 limps into operation linking one random part of the country to another, neither of which were intended as the start and terminus and in-between requires a replacement horse and cart.

Scott_xP

@NatashaC: Exc from @JackElsom and I

Betting firms to be slapped with gambling tax with new mandatory levy in white paper FIN… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618736130060615682

solarflare

kle4 said:

MightyAlex said:

Scott_xP said:

@thetimes: 🔺NEW: Nadhim Zahawi earned at least £1.3 million from interests in Kurdistan after cultivating close links with a p… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618734255567142913

I remember Private Eye covering this stuff, dodgy oil company links.

Astonishing.

You can have non-dodgy oil company links?

Olive?

TimS

Richard_Tyndall said:

dixiedean said:

Am I the only one who was blissfully ignorant of the political views of Rod before today?
If you'd asked me to name ageing Tory rock stars it would have been Phil Collins and Kate Bush. And that's it.

Bryan Ferry & Bill Wyman both fall into that category apparently

Gary Barlow

LostPassword

solarflare said:

kle4 said:

MightyAlex said:

Scott_xP said:

@thetimes: 🔺NEW: Nadhim Zahawi earned at least £1.3 million from interests in Kurdistan after cultivating close links with a p… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618734255567142913

I remember Private Eye covering this stuff, dodgy oil company links.

Astonishing.

You can have non-dodgy oil company links?

Olive?

There's a dark underbelly to the trade in olive oil.

TimS

solarflare said:

kle4 said:

MightyAlex said:

Scott_xP said:

@thetimes: 🔺NEW: Nadhim Zahawi earned at least £1.3 million from interests in Kurdistan after cultivating close links with a p… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618734255567142913

I remember Private Eye covering this stuff, dodgy oil company links.

Astonishing.

You can have non-dodgy oil company links?

Olive?

Snake is a favourite

Scott_xP

@steverichards14
Lord Frosty Frost- a cause and symptom of current Tory crisis- seems to be yearning for a return of the triumphant Liz Truss era:
https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1618736494503686145?s=20&t=KXIwKUiSmD5-sPxvOtN2OA

kle4

Scott_xP said:

...

I was going to say is Rod Stewart really a big deal to people who are not of a certain age or proepr music fans, but 'of a certain age' is a core voting bloc of course.

Carnyx

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Point of Order FPT

Rod Stewart had one of the greatest voices in pop music

His peers say so. “He often recorded terrible songs, but there was always The Voice”

He could inject great pathos into possibly mawkish songs: “Sailing”, and he turned good songs into all-time-classics: “Maggie May”

Sir Rod lives in a mansion in Sheering, about 15 mins from us (as well as Florida of course), not bad for a one time grave digger

Sir Rod is a dude.

I once saw him sitting in an insanely pricey open top Ferrari trying to reverse park in gentrified
Wapping, he looked like a bewildered old docker trying to work out what had happened to the old neighbourhood

The melancholy impression was ameliorated by the gorgeous blonde girlfriend, at least 45 years younger, sitting next to him

Blondes? Pah! Most importantly, he has a fabulous train set. What is the point of fabulous wealth if you can't squander it on eccentric hobbies?

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-50403561

Wonder IF Sir Rod enjoys blowing up his model trains crossing bridges & such, as did "Gomez Addams" in the classic "Addams Family" TV show?

It's American prototype - Pittsburgh? - and too late for the Civil War!

solarflare

LostPassword said:

solarflare said:

kle4 said:

MightyAlex said:

Scott_xP said:

@thetimes: 🔺NEW: Nadhim Zahawi earned at least £1.3 million from interests in Kurdistan after cultivating close links with a p… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618734255567142913

I remember Private Eye covering this stuff, dodgy oil company links.

Astonishing.

You can have non-dodgy oil company links?

Olive?

There's a dark underbelly to the trade in olive oil.

Ah. Well, I tried.

kle4

solarflare said:

LostPassword said:

solarflare said:

kle4 said:

MightyAlex said:

Scott_xP said:

@thetimes: 🔺NEW: Nadhim Zahawi earned at least £1.3 million from interests in Kurdistan after cultivating close links with a p… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618734255567142913

I remember Private Eye covering this stuff, dodgy oil company links.

Astonishing.

You can have non-dodgy oil company links?

Olive?

There's a dark underbelly to the trade in olive oil.

Ah. Well, I tried.

Lorenzo's?

Leon

dixiedean said:

Am I the only one who was blissfully ignorant of the political views of Rod before today?
If you'd asked me to name ageing Tory rock stars it would have been Phil Collins and Kate Bush. And that's it.

Er, almost every loaded pop star over 30 is Tory

From the Spice Girls to Eric Clapton, from Led Zep to Adele

Taxes + great wealth have a way of altering your political perspective

jamesdoyle

rcs1000 said:

jamesdoyle said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Point of Order FPT

Rod Stewart had one of the greatest voices in pop music

His peers say so. “He often recorded terrible songs, but there was always The Voice”

He could inject great pathos into possibly mawkish songs: “Sailing”, and he turned good songs into all-time-classics: “Maggie May”

Sir Rod lives in a mansion in Sheering, about 15 mins from us (as well as Florida of course), not bad for a one time grave digger

Sir Rod is a dude.

I once saw him sitting in an insanely pricey open top Ferrari trying to reverse park in gentrified
Wapping, he looked like a bewildered old docker trying to work out what had happened to the old neighbourhood

The melancholy impression was ameliorated by the gorgeous blonde girlfriend, at least 45 years younger, sitting next to him

When my wife's family flew back from New Zealand in 1973 or thereabouts (they'd been sailing around the world long story), Rod Stewart sat next to them. My wife was then about 9, and she made Rod cuddle her teddy and sing it a song. Didn't have a clue who he was.

You married early.

New Zealand, innit

Richard_Tyndall

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

The median age of the average voter is now about 50 of course

The median potential voter or the median voting voter?

The latter. I occasionally reference the following research undertaken after the 2017 GE:

https://blogs.bath.ac.uk/iprblog/2019/05/21/the-rise-of-the-grey-vote/

Which is worth reading, although here's the excerpt explaining the relevant conclusion:

In 2017, our analysis of the BES data suggests that turnout among over 55s was 83.35%, compared to 58.15% of those under 55. Likewise, turnout was 84.34% vs. 63.06% for over and under 65s respectively. Combining these BES estimates of turnout with LFS estimates of nationality and ONS population estimates, we arrive at the following figures: the over 55s constituted 48.35% of the voting public in 2017, and the over 65s, 30.27%. If we assume that both turnout and the proportion of those disenfranchised due to their nationality remain constant, over 55s will constitute over half of the voting public by 2020 as a result of projected demographic change.

The grey vote is so huge, and contains so many outright homeowners, expectant heirs to property windfalls, and those already in receipt of state pensions or expecting to be so in the near future, that nobody will dare piss them off when it comes to their core interests: the triple lock, keeping house prices buoyant (if necessary through market rigging mechanisms, such as help to buy and refusing to challenge Nimbyism,) and prioritising the taxation of incomes over that of assets and estates.

This, in a nutshell, is why Britain is terminally screwed. Robbed of the ability to tax the old more, all the Government can do to pay for their ever-growing numbers and demands is to tax everyone else completely into the ground. The irony of all this is that 19th century theorists once postulated that democracy could never last for very long, because the great mass of the poor would soon learn to vote to help themselves to all the wealth of the rich, precipitating social collapse. They never anticipated that a great mass of wealthy codgers would actually destroy the state by helping themselves to the wages of their children and grandchildren. But here we are.

Their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them however

Many people don’t have wealthy parents.

I know that’s difficult for you to compute, though, as it appears to be outside the field of your large language model.

Most people have home owning parents though.

The average person is more likely to inherit a house from their parents than become a high earner

You get an allowance of £23k, then after that, the average person's parents is more likely to have their home sold or have a lien put on it to pay their care costs.

Fewer people are going to inherit than they think.

That’s one thing that strikes me. You meet so many later middle aged people with no pension provision who tell you that their house is their pension. Unless they die early, this means that a lot of equity will be spent down to cover day-to-day living costs, meaning that it won’t be available for inheritance and, logically, that property prices should surely fall?

This touches on one of my pet hates. Houses should be laces to live in - homes - not investments or pension plans. I don't blame the people themselves. Successive governments have so screwed over private pensions that the housing market is one of the very few ways many people can provide for their old age. But it shouldn't be that way. Personally, in an ideal world, I want to leave my current house feet first. I have no intention of 'downsizing' nor do I see my house as an investment. I would be delighted if it halved in value as long as it meant the rest of the housing market was doing the same and younger people could actually get on the housing market*.

*Okay I realise from previous discussions that a housing crash would actually be a 'bad thing' for many people and for many reasons but you get the principle. If my house never became a single penny more valuable so that inflation ate into its value and halved it by the time I departed then that would suit me just as well.

The UK actually has more enrolled in workplace pensions than most OECD nations.

Outside London and the Home Counties house prices are much more affordable to the young anyway and less of an asset, though even there the average house price has in most years this century risen in percentage terms by more than the average wage

Not sure what you consider affordable. Just looking at cities, the average house price in most is at least 6 or 7 times average earnings at a minimum. That is not sustainable for most people.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1006395/average-house-price-in-the-uk-by-city/

Scott_xP

@hendopolis: THE TIMES: PM’s foreign student plan to shore up economy #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1618738813710352386/photo/1

Richard_Tyndall

TimS said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

dixiedean said:

Am I the only one who was blissfully ignorant of the political views of Rod before today?
If you'd asked me to name ageing Tory rock stars it would have been Phil Collins and Kate Bush. And that's it.

Bryan Ferry & Bill Wyman both fall into that category apparently

Gary Barlow

There's no need for that sort of language

eek

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

The median age of the average voter is now about 50 of course

The median potential voter or the median voting voter?

The latter. I occasionally reference the following research undertaken after the 2017 GE:

https://blogs.bath.ac.uk/iprblog/2019/05/21/the-rise-of-the-grey-vote/

Which is worth reading, although here's the excerpt explaining the relevant conclusion:

In 2017, our analysis of the BES data suggests that turnout among over 55s was 83.35%, compared to 58.15% of those under 55. Likewise, turnout was 84.34% vs. 63.06% for over and under 65s respectively. Combining these BES estimates of turnout with LFS estimates of nationality and ONS population estimates, we arrive at the following figures: the over 55s constituted 48.35% of the voting public in 2017, and the over 65s, 30.27%. If we assume that both turnout and the proportion of those disenfranchised due to their nationality remain constant, over 55s will constitute over half of the voting public by 2020 as a result of projected demographic change.

The grey vote is so huge, and contains so many outright homeowners, expectant heirs to property windfalls, and those already in receipt of state pensions or expecting to be so in the near future, that nobody will dare piss them off when it comes to their core interests: the triple lock, keeping house prices buoyant (if necessary through market rigging mechanisms, such as help to buy and refusing to challenge Nimbyism,) and prioritising the taxation of incomes over that of assets and estates.

This, in a nutshell, is why Britain is terminally screwed. Robbed of the ability to tax the old more, all the Government can do to pay for their ever-growing numbers and demands is to tax everyone else completely into the ground. The irony of all this is that 19th century theorists once postulated that democracy could never last for very long, because the great mass of the poor would soon learn to vote to help themselves to all the wealth of the rich, precipitating social collapse. They never anticipated that a great mass of wealthy codgers would actually destroy the state by helping themselves to the wages of their children and grandchildren. But here we are.

Their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them however

Many people don’t have wealthy parents.

I know that’s difficult for you to compute, though, as it appears to be outside the field of your large language model.

Most people have home owning parents though.

The average person is more likely to inherit a house from their parents than become a high earner

You get an allowance of £23k, then after that, the average person's parents is more likely to have their home sold or have a lien put on it to pay their care costs.

Fewer people are going to inherit than they think.

That’s one thing that strikes me. You meet so many later middle aged people with no pension provision who tell you that their house is their pension. Unless they die early, this means that a lot of equity will be spent down to cover day-to-day living costs, meaning that it won’t be available for inheritance and, logically, that property prices should surely fall?

This touches on one of my pet hates. Houses should be laces to live in - homes - not investments or pension plans. I don't blame the people themselves. Successive governments have so screwed over private pensions that the housing market is one of the very few ways many people can provide for their old age. But it shouldn't be that way. Personally, in an ideal world, I want to leave my current house feet first. I have no intention of 'downsizing' nor do I see my house as an investment. I would be delighted if it halved in value as long as it meant the rest of the housing market was doing the same and younger people could actually get on the housing market*.

*Okay I realise from previous discussions that a housing crash would actually be a 'bad thing' for many people and for many reasons but you get the principle. If my house never became a single penny more valuable so that inflation ate into its value and halved it by the time I departed then that would suit me just as well.

The UK actually has more enrolled in workplace pensions than most OECD nations.

Outside London and the Home Counties house prices are much more affordable to the young anyway and less of an asset, though even there the average house price has in most years this century risen in percentage terms by more than the average wage

Not sure what you consider affordable. Just looking at cities, the average house price in most is at least 6 or 7 times average earnings at a minimum. That is not sustainable for most people.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1006395/average-house-price-in-the-uk-by-city/

6 times single earnings is 3 or 4 times joint earnings which is probably fine if you are a couple - bit not if only a person can work or you are single.

Leon

solarflare said:

eek said:

Back to HS2

Harry Cole

@MrHarryCole
·
34s
EXC: Inflation blighted HS2 in chaos with delay or scrap of it arriving at Euston.

Construction costs pain means scaling back of the project under live discussion in Whitehall.

Spent last few weeks under bonnet and it's not looking good

— The reality is that Old Oak Common station is probably a better option for most people rather than Euston

The rest of the planet is going to be throwing out its maglevs and hyperloops for those new fangled teleporters before some half-finished HS2 limps into operation linking one random part of the country to another, neither of which were intended as the start and terminus and in-between requires a replacement horse and cart.

Even Thailand is building high speed trains faster than us. Part of a Chinese-funded Beijing to Singapore adventure

It beggars belief they might scrap the Euston link. They’ve spent 3 years literally building it right outside my house. And now all that is for nothing??!

Foxy

Carnyx said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Point of Order FPT

Rod Stewart had one of the greatest voices in pop music

His peers say so. “He often recorded terrible songs, but there was always The Voice”

He could inject great pathos into possibly mawkish songs: “Sailing”, and he turned good songs into all-time-classics: “Maggie May”

Sir Rod lives in a mansion in Sheering, about 15 mins from us (as well as Florida of course), not bad for a one time grave digger

Sir Rod is a dude.

I once saw him sitting in an insanely pricey open top Ferrari trying to reverse park in gentrified
Wapping, he looked like a bewildered old docker trying to work out what had happened to the old neighbourhood

The melancholy impression was ameliorated by the gorgeous blonde girlfriend, at least 45 years younger, sitting next to him

Blondes? Pah! Most importantly, he has a fabulous train set. What is the point of fabulous wealth if you can't squander it on eccentric hobbies?

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-50403561

Wonder IF Sir Rod enjoys blowing up his model trains crossing bridges & such, as did "Gomez Addams" in the classic "Addams Family" TV show?

It's American prototype - Pittsburgh? - and too late for the Civil War!

Too late for their last Civil War, but why stop at one?

Foxy

eek said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

The median age of the average voter is now about 50 of course

The median potential voter or the median voting voter?

The latter. I occasionally reference the following research undertaken after the 2017 GE:

https://blogs.bath.ac.uk/iprblog/2019/05/21/the-rise-of-the-grey-vote/

Which is worth reading, although here's the excerpt explaining the relevant conclusion:

In 2017, our analysis of the BES data suggests that turnout among over 55s was 83.35%, compared to 58.15% of those under 55. Likewise, turnout was 84.34% vs. 63.06% for over and under 65s respectively. Combining these BES estimates of turnout with LFS estimates of nationality and ONS population estimates, we arrive at the following figures: the over 55s constituted 48.35% of the voting public in 2017, and the over 65s, 30.27%. If we assume that both turnout and the proportion of those disenfranchised due to their nationality remain constant, over 55s will constitute over half of the voting public by 2020 as a result of projected demographic change.

The grey vote is so huge, and contains so many outright homeowners, expectant heirs to property windfalls, and those already in receipt of state pensions or expecting to be so in the near future, that nobody will dare piss them off when it comes to their core interests: the triple lock, keeping house prices buoyant (if necessary through market rigging mechanisms, such as help to buy and refusing to challenge Nimbyism,) and prioritising the taxation of incomes over that of assets and estates.

This, in a nutshell, is why Britain is terminally screwed. Robbed of the ability to tax the old more, all the Government can do to pay for their ever-growing numbers and demands is to tax everyone else completely into the ground. The irony of all this is that 19th century theorists once postulated that democracy could never last for very long, because the great mass of the poor would soon learn to vote to help themselves to all the wealth of the rich, precipitating social collapse. They never anticipated that a great mass of wealthy codgers would actually destroy the state by helping themselves to the wages of their children and grandchildren. But here we are.

Their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them however

Many people don’t have wealthy parents.

I know that’s difficult for you to compute, though, as it appears to be outside the field of your large language model.

Most people have home owning parents though.

The average person is more likely to inherit a house from their parents than become a high earner

You get an allowance of £23k, then after that, the average person's parents is more likely to have their home sold or have a lien put on it to pay their care costs.

Fewer people are going to inherit than they think.

That’s one thing that strikes me. You meet so many later middle aged people with no pension provision who tell you that their house is their pension. Unless they die early, this means that a lot of equity will be spent down to cover day-to-day living costs, meaning that it won’t be available for inheritance and, logically, that property prices should surely fall?

This touches on one of my pet hates. Houses should be laces to live in - homes - not investments or pension plans. I don't blame the people themselves. Successive governments have so screwed over private pensions that the housing market is one of the very few ways many people can provide for their old age. But it shouldn't be that way. Personally, in an ideal world, I want to leave my current house feet first. I have no intention of 'downsizing' nor do I see my house as an investment. I would be delighted if it halved in value as long as it meant the rest of the housing market was doing the same and younger people could actually get on the housing market*.

*Okay I realise from previous discussions that a housing crash would actually be a 'bad thing' for many people and for many reasons but you get the principle. If my house never became a single penny more valuable so that inflation ate into its value and halved it by the time I departed then that would suit me just as well.

The UK actually has more enrolled in workplace pensions than most OECD nations.

Outside London and the Home Counties house prices are much more affordable to the young anyway and less of an asset, though even there the average house price has in most years this century risen in percentage terms by more than the average wage

Not sure what you consider affordable. Just looking at cities, the average house price in most is at least 6 or 7 times average earnings at a minimum. That is not sustainable for most people.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1006395/average-house-price-in-the-uk-by-city/

6 times single earnings is 3 or 4 times joint earnings which is probably fine if you are a couple - bit not if only a person can work or you are single.

It does remain affordable if interest rates are low enough. Half the interest means they can service twice the debt. All fine and dandy if interest rates stay low...

Richard_Tyndall

eek said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

The median age of the average voter is now about 50 of course

The median potential voter or the median voting voter?

The latter. I occasionally reference the following research undertaken after the 2017 GE:

https://blogs.bath.ac.uk/iprblog/2019/05/21/the-rise-of-the-grey-vote/

Which is worth reading, although here's the excerpt explaining the relevant conclusion:

In 2017, our analysis of the BES data suggests that turnout among over 55s was 83.35%, compared to 58.15% of those under 55. Likewise, turnout was 84.34% vs. 63.06% for over and under 65s respectively. Combining these BES estimates of turnout with LFS estimates of nationality and ONS population estimates, we arrive at the following figures: the over 55s constituted 48.35% of the voting public in 2017, and the over 65s, 30.27%. If we assume that both turnout and the proportion of those disenfranchised due to their nationality remain constant, over 55s will constitute over half of the voting public by 2020 as a result of projected demographic change.

The grey vote is so huge, and contains so many outright homeowners, expectant heirs to property windfalls, and those already in receipt of state pensions or expecting to be so in the near future, that nobody will dare piss them off when it comes to their core interests: the triple lock, keeping house prices buoyant (if necessary through market rigging mechanisms, such as help to buy and refusing to challenge Nimbyism,) and prioritising the taxation of incomes over that of assets and estates.

This, in a nutshell, is why Britain is terminally screwed. Robbed of the ability to tax the old more, all the Government can do to pay for their ever-growing numbers and demands is to tax everyone else completely into the ground. The irony of all this is that 19th century theorists once postulated that democracy could never last for very long, because the great mass of the poor would soon learn to vote to help themselves to all the wealth of the rich, precipitating social collapse. They never anticipated that a great mass of wealthy codgers would actually destroy the state by helping themselves to the wages of their children and grandchildren. But here we are.

Their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them however

Many people don’t have wealthy parents.

I know that’s difficult for you to compute, though, as it appears to be outside the field of your large language model.

Most people have home owning parents though.

The average person is more likely to inherit a house from their parents than become a high earner

You get an allowance of £23k, then after that, the average person's parents is more likely to have their home sold or have a lien put on it to pay their care costs.

Fewer people are going to inherit than they think.

That’s one thing that strikes me. You meet so many later middle aged people with no pension provision who tell you that their house is their pension. Unless they die early, this means that a lot of equity will be spent down to cover day-to-day living costs, meaning that it won’t be available for inheritance and, logically, that property prices should surely fall?

This touches on one of my pet hates. Houses should be laces to live in - homes - not investments or pension plans. I don't blame the people themselves. Successive governments have so screwed over private pensions that the housing market is one of the very few ways many people can provide for their old age. But it shouldn't be that way. Personally, in an ideal world, I want to leave my current house feet first. I have no intention of 'downsizing' nor do I see my house as an investment. I would be delighted if it halved in value as long as it meant the rest of the housing market was doing the same and younger people could actually get on the housing market*.

*Okay I realise from previous discussions that a housing crash would actually be a 'bad thing' for many people and for many reasons but you get the principle. If my house never became a single penny more valuable so that inflation ate into its value and halved it by the time I departed then that would suit me just as well.

The UK actually has more enrolled in workplace pensions than most OECD nations.

Outside London and the Home Counties house prices are much more affordable to the young anyway and less of an asset, though even there the average house price has in most years this century risen in percentage terms by more than the average wage

Not sure what you consider affordable. Just looking at cities, the average house price in most is at least 6 or 7 times average earnings at a minimum. That is not sustainable for most people.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1006395/average-house-price-in-the-uk-by-city/

6 times single earnings is 3 or 4 times joint earnings which is probably fine if you are a couple - bit not if only a person can work or you are single.

And of course for many couples the only way they can have both go out to work is if they have children under school age is by paying childcare or nursery costs which is more than the cost of their mortgage each month.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/oct/07/nursery-under-twos-costs-parents-england-65-percent-wage

Wulfrun_Phil

WhisperingOracle said:

Rod Stewart, horse going to the toilet, it's been all action while I've been away, I can see.

All Labour needs now is for Jim Davidson and Paul Daniels to desert the Tory fold too.

No, you can keep Jim Davidson and Paul Daniels. You're welcome to them.

WhisperingOracle

Sadly I see that Paul Daniels is no longer playing comedy this side of the interplanetary curtain. Bill Wyman and Kate Bush are still here, though - I'm surprised to hear that alternative-Kate is a Tory, that I must say.

dixiedean

solarflare said:

eek said:

Back to HS2

Harry Cole

@MrHarryCole
·
34s
EXC: Inflation blighted HS2 in chaos with delay or scrap of it arriving at Euston.

Construction costs pain means scaling back of the project under live discussion in Whitehall.

Spent last few weeks under bonnet and it's not looking good

— The reality is that Old Oak Common station is probably a better option for most people rather than Euston

The rest of the planet is going to be throwing out its maglevs and hyperloops for those new fangled teleporters before some half-finished HS2 limps into operation linking one random part of the country to another, neither of which were intended as the start and terminus and in-between requires a replacement horse and cart.

Did some cover teaching on the industrial Revolution yesterday.
Between 1800 and 1870 the travel time from Manchester to London went from 4 days to 4 hours.
You'd have to be lucky to have it fallen further.

HYUFD

Wulfrun_Phil said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Rod Stewart, horse going to the toilet, it's been all action while I've been away, I can see.

All Labour needs now is for Jim Davidson and Paul Daniels to desert the Tory fold too.

No, you can keep Jim Davidson and Paul Daniels. You're welcome to them.

Jim Davidson even went to Tory conference when IDS was leader (he and Julian Fellowes IDS' only celebrity backers), I used to see him in the bars. If he went it would be to RefUK not Labou