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Sunak a net 10% behind Starmer in latest approval ratings – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 22 in General
Sunak a net 10% behind Starmer in latest approval ratings – politicalbetting.com

Continuing our monthly tracker day is leadership approval – tracking since @RishiSunak became Prime Minister. As it stands, there are ten points between the Prime Minister and @Keir_Starmer… (1/2) pic.twitter.com/ww3WTeseby

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 24,023
    First like Arsenal (still!)
  • beinndeargbeinndearg Posts: 676
    I am forecasting a 5 point downward lurch for con on the back of zahawi. Sleazy broken Tories indeed.
  • I wonder what Prince Phillip would have made of Sunak.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,405

    I am forecasting a 5 point downward lurch for con on the back of zahawi. Sleazy broken Tories indeed.

    It will be really interesting to see if that pans out. If there isn't a downward spike, some level of "sleaze" is a baked in expectation. If there is, then the remaining Tory vote is still capable of being disappointed.
  • mwadams said:

    I am forecasting a 5 point downward lurch for con on the back of zahawi. Sleazy broken Tories indeed.

    It will be really interesting to see if that pans out. If there isn't a downward spike, some level of "sleaze" is a baked in expectation. If there is, then the remaining Tory vote is still capable of being disappointed.
    I suspect the Tory voter will fall away more when Sunak surrenders to the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    This is an actual televised sport in America

    https://twitter.com/chrisnowinski1/status/1616101814830505985?s=61&t=9FJCUc3-5umtH7ussw7J4w

    We invented and codified cricket, football, rugby, skiing, golf, tennis, netball, boxing, hockey, badminton, mountaineering and croquet

    Americans invented THIS
  • How long until Zahawi "resigns"?

    I think that he is a full cabinet minister, so would be a candidate for the next cabinet minister to depart.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,813
    Leon said:

    This is an actual televised sport in America

    https://twitter.com/chrisnowinski1/status/1616101814830505985?s=61&t=9FJCUc3-5umtH7ussw7J4w

    We invented and codified cricket, football, rugby, skiing, golf, tennis, netball, boxing, hockey, badminton, mountaineering and croquet

    Americans invented THIS

    I saw that earlier. Grim.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    Even a 10% Labour lead might mean a hung parliament on the new boundaries.

    Sunak is still closer to Starmer than the Tories are to Labour
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited January 20
    (FPT)

    "Starting to enquire" ?

    The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently. Or deliberately obstructive.

    https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
    Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.

    But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany


    Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.

    Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.

    I've been willing to give Germany credit for the help they have given, but on this matter, it's pretty pathetic now.
  • FPT


    Scott_xP said:

    @JohnRentoul: More details of Zahawi tax case from @Annaisaac https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jan/20/nadhim-zahawi-agreed-on-penalty-to-settle-tax-bill-worth-millions

    Interesting but be careful what is inferred from this. It's a while since I dealt with this kind of thing and I've not kept up to speed with the changes since, although I doubt the principles will have changed.

    Penalties used only to be applied in serious or clear cut cases. Mostly inspectors were happy enough to charge the tax and interest. Penalties moved matters on to a different level and there were clear guidelines on how to apply them.

    You would start from a theoretical 100% and then discount for size, gravity and co-operation. I think we can take it that this case was fairly big, though not the very biggest. Gravity would be low if this were, say, a tax avoidance scheme that had gone wrong, as that would suggest a difference of opinion rather than deliberate dishonesty. Co-operation is self-explanatory and one assumes he got most of the available discount for that.

    Thirty percent sounds quite high to me for a negotiated settlement. Once you get above fifty percent a lot of taxpayers would tend to say 'dammit I'll see you in court' where the same weightings apply but are not negotiable.

    I'm intrigued however as to how the Guardian came to know all this. The Department was pretty hot on confidentiality, in my day at least. I cannot imagine how this has come to light other than through a leak, and personally I'm not crazy about anyone being pilloried as a result of a deliberate leak of such private information. Does more harm than good, imo, so even if he has been a naughty boy, would I want him sacked as a result of the leak?

    I think not, but maybe there's more to it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    mwadams said:

    I am forecasting a 5 point downward lurch for con on the back of zahawi. Sleazy broken Tories indeed.

    It will be really interesting to see if that pans out. If there isn't a downward spike, some level of "sleaze" is a baked in expectation. If there is, then the remaining Tory vote is still capable of being disappointed.
    I suspect the Tory voter will fall away more when Sunak surrenders to the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol.
    They don't care about that on the whole as long as free movement is not restored and Brexit has been delivered
  • FPT


    Scott_xP said:

    @JohnRentoul: More details of Zahawi tax case from @Annaisaac https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jan/20/nadhim-zahawi-agreed-on-penalty-to-settle-tax-bill-worth-millions

    Interesting but be careful what is inferred from this. It's a while since I dealt with this kind of thing and I've not kept up to speed with the changes since, although I doubt the principles will have changed.

    Penalties used only to be applied in serious or clear cut cases. Mostly inspectors were happy enough to charge the tax and interest. Penalties moved matters on to a different level and there were clear guidelines on how to apply them.

    You would start from a theoretical 100% and then discount for size, gravity and co-operation. I think we can take it that this case was fairly big, though not the very biggest. Gravity would be low if this were, say, a tax avoidance scheme that had gone wrong, as that would suggest a difference of opinion rather than deliberate dishonesty. Co-operation is self-explanatory and one assumes he got most of the available discount for that.

    Thirty percent sounds quite high to me for a negotiated settlement. Once you get above fifty percent a lot of taxpayers would tend to say 'dammit I'll see you in court' where the same weightings apply but are not negotiable.

    I'm intrigued however as to how the Guardian came to know all this. The Department was pretty hot on confidentiality, in my day at least. I cannot imagine how this has come to light other than through a leak, and personally I'm not crazy about anyone being pilloried as a result of a deliberate leak of such private information. Does more harm than good, imo, so even if he has been a naughty boy, would I want him sacked as a result of the leak?

    I think not, but maybe there's more to it.

    Zahawi may have had to declare the settlement to the Cabinet Office and the leak came from there?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Also, no European country serious about its security is likely to buy Leopards, given the restrictions imposed on their use.

    Hanwa Industries export department will be delighted.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Leon said:

    This is an actual televised sport in America

    https://twitter.com/chrisnowinski1/status/1616101814830505985?s=61&t=9FJCUc3-5umtH7ussw7J4w

    We invented and codified cricket, football, rugby, skiing, golf, tennis, netball, boxing, hockey, badminton, mountaineering and croquet

    Americans invented THIS

    Someone should sue them out of existence.
    That's utterly depraved.
  • I wonder what Prince Phillip would have made of Sunak.

    Probably would have thought he'd make a jolly good batman.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,813
    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    "Starting to enquire" ?

    The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently. Or deliberately obstructive.

    https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
    Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.

    But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany


    Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.

    Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.

    I've been willing to give Germany credit for the help they have given, but on this matter, it's pretty pathetic now.

    It is staggering that the German government have not even been looking into the number of tanks that are available. It seems such an obvious thing for them to have been doing, especially with all the talk there's been over the months. The sort of minor-cost bureaucratic crud that gets lost in the military's coffee and biscuits budget.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    FPT

    ...I'm intrigued however as to how the Guardian came to know all this. The Department was pretty hot on confidentiality, in my day at least. I cannot imagine how this has come to light other than through a leak, and personally I'm not crazy about anyone being pilloried as a result of a deliberate leak of such private information. Does more harm than good, imo, so even if he has been a naughty boy, would I want him sacked as a result of the leak?

    I think not, but maybe there's more to it.

    While I'd agree such a leak is undesirable, I don't think he should get a free pass just because someone else did something wrong.
  • Remember when HYUFD and the Tory gang said this metric would prove Rishi would win? Oh dear
  • Frankly I would prefer a Hung Parliament. We need PR now.
  • Leon said:

    This is an actual televised sport in America

    https://twitter.com/chrisnowinski1/status/1616101814830505985?s=61&t=9FJCUc3-5umtH7ussw7J4w

    We invented and codified cricket, football, rugby, skiing, golf, tennis, netball, boxing, hockey, badminton, mountaineering and croquet

    Americans invented THIS

    I think that was the inclusive kids play one team created on The Apprentice last night
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited January 20
    More than 170 Hungarian generals and senior military officers have been forced into early retirement in recent days by Hungary's MoD, led by Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky. He is a former business partner of Transmashholding, a Russian state-owned company.
    https://twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1616392078421794816

    Sounds like a purge of those who support NATO.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    Leon said:

    This is an actual televised sport in America

    https://twitter.com/chrisnowinski1/status/1616101814830505985?s=61&t=9FJCUc3-5umtH7ussw7J4w

    We invented and codified cricket, football, rugby, skiing, golf, tennis, netball, boxing, hockey, badminton, mountaineering and croquet

    Americans invented THIS

    And Englishers invented THIS

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjSUk9o-D6E

    Personally am a fan of this WAY more than whatever it is that is (apparently) Leon's favorite sport.

    Despite fact that Olde Englishe Cheese Rolling results in FAR more bloodshed and mayhem.
  • Nigelb said:

    FPT

    ...I'm intrigued however as to how the Guardian came to know all this. The Department was pretty hot on confidentiality, in my day at least. I cannot imagine how this has come to light other than through a leak, and personally I'm not crazy about anyone being pilloried as a result of a deliberate leak of such private information. Does more harm than good, imo, so even if he has been a naughty boy, would I want him sacked as a result of the leak?

    I think not, but maybe there's more to it.

    While I'd agree such a leak is undesirable, I don't think he should get a free pass just because someone else did something wrong.
    Ideally, he should be treated exactly the same as if the leak never happened.

    Now it may be that he would have been obliged to report the matter to the Cabinet Secretary (I just don't know about that) and you would imagine then that the PM would at the very least exclude him from Treasury Appointments. That isn't the same as trial by public opinion though, which is where you land up with leaks. They also discourage cooperation where it is in everyone's interest that confidentiality should be respected, and secrecy tight.

    So I'm more than a little unhappy at what seems to be going on here.

    Btw, I accept the leak is as likely as not to have come from his own Party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    German Defense Minister said that Ramstein meeting didn't reach a decision on sending Leopard tanks to #Ukraine, because there are arguments for & against from different countries.

    Tell me, which country besides Germany opposes? At least one?

    https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1616434985187115009

    Austria ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,975
    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    I am forecasting a 5 point downward lurch for con on the back of zahawi. Sleazy broken Tories indeed.

    It will be really interesting to see if that pans out. If there isn't a downward spike, some level of "sleaze" is a baked in expectation. If there is, then the remaining Tory vote is still capable of being disappointed.
    I suspect the Tory voter will fall away more when Sunak surrenders to the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol.
    They don't care about that on the whole as long as free movement is not restored and Brexit has been delivered
    Think you're right. Some get distressed by any mention of the ECJ but these Victorian throwbacks are a small minority.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 1,059
    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    Frankly I would prefer a Hung Parliament. We need PR now.

    The biggest winners from PR on current polling are the LDs, RefUK and the Greens. In that order.

    The biggest losers are the SNP, Labour and the Tories. In that order.

    So I doubt it will happen now
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    "Starting to enquire" ?

    The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently. Or deliberately obstructive.

    https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
    Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.

    But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany


    Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.

    Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.

    I've been willing to give Germany credit for the help they have given, but on this matter, it's pretty pathetic now.

    The other annoying thing is that by banging on about these bloody leopards day in day out they are in danger of making the whole escalation thing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Supplying arms to a country to help defend itself is not escalatory.

    Still, maybe a delay isn’t such a bad idea. There must be some advantage to Ukraine in terms of attrition if Russia continues to grind out a very expensive and slow advance around Bakhmut, so long as attacker losses of mem and equipment are significantly greater
    than defenders. The more manpower and ammunition they’ve expended before a Ukrainian offensive, the less able they’ll be to defend against it. Then along come the leopards.

    Like wearing out the bowlers with long sessions of blocking before letting rip on a tired field.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,975

    mwadams said:

    I am forecasting a 5 point downward lurch for con on the back of zahawi. Sleazy broken Tories indeed.

    It will be really interesting to see if that pans out. If there isn't a downward spike, some level of "sleaze" is a baked in expectation. If there is, then the remaining Tory vote is still capable of being disappointed.
    I suspect the Tory voter will fall away more when Sunak surrenders to the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol.
    Is that what you see happening? That he'll do the pragmatic deal and tell the ERG to do one?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited January 20

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    Yougov still has Trump 12% ahead of DeSantis with GOP voters.

    However yes they also have Biden 4% ahead of Trump with all voters but only tied with DeSantis

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
  • Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-3)
    CON: 21% (=)
    GRN: 9% (+2)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    REF: 8% (+1)
    SNP: 5% (=)

    Via @PeoplePolling, On 18 January,
    Changes w/ 11 January.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    "Starting to enquire" ?

    The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently. Or deliberately obstructive.

    https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
    Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.

    But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany


    Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.

    Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.

    I've been willing to give Germany credit for the help they have given, but on this matter, it's pretty pathetic now.

    The other annoying thing is that by banging on about these bloody leopards day in day out they are in danger of making the whole escalation thing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Supplying arms to a country to help defend itself is not escalatory.

    Still, maybe a delay isn’t such a bad idea. There must be some advantage to Ukraine in terms of attrition if Russia continues to grind out a very expensive and slow advance around Bakhmut, so long as attacker losses of mem and equipment are significantly greater
    than defenders. The more manpower and ammunition they’ve expended before a Ukrainian offensive, the less able they’ll be to defend against it. Then along come the leopards.

    Like wearing out the bowlers with long sessions of blocking before letting rip on a tired field.
    I don't think so.
    They need time, if they get the tanks, to integrate them into the army for the much discussed spring campaign. That's more likely to be a war of manoeuvre than the current static attrition - which is killing large numbers of Ukrainians as well as Russians.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited January 20
    What a strange story. "More than 200 police officers are looking for Constance Marten and Mark Gordon".

    Why are they looking for them?

    Gordon is indeed a convicted rapist, but he served his sentence and was then deported back to Britain.

    Neither of them seem to be suspected of having committed any crimes that are still open cases.

    The Independent is a very strange newspaper. These articles are important because readers are supposed to nod and think "We hope the police catch these terribly wicked anti-social saboteur elements", without having the gumption to wonder whether they're actually suspected of doing anything that's against the law.

    MORE THAN 200 POLICE.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,813
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    "Starting to enquire" ?

    The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently. Or deliberately obstructive.

    https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
    Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.

    But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany


    Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.

    Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.

    I've been willing to give Germany credit for the help they have given, but on this matter, it's pretty pathetic now.

    The other annoying thing is that by banging on about these bloody leopards day in day out they are in danger of making the whole escalation thing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Supplying arms to a country to help defend itself is not escalatory.

    Still, maybe a delay isn’t such a bad idea. There must be some advantage to Ukraine in terms of attrition if Russia continues to grind out a very expensive and slow advance around Bakhmut, so long as attacker losses of mem and equipment are significantly greater
    than defenders. The more manpower and ammunition they’ve expended before a Ukrainian offensive, the less able they’ll be to defend against it. Then along come the leopards.

    Like wearing out the bowlers with long sessions of blocking before letting rip on a tired field.
    I was thinking about this earlier. If Russia thinks that Ukraine is going to get 100 or 200 western tanks in (say) May, they're likely to want to do any attack before then. If they don't think they're coming, it'll be a case of whether they want to wait until more Mobiks are prepared to become sunflower fertiliser. I reckon there's a near-certain Russian campaign coming; it's just a case of when they launch it. And they'll want to go when the balance of power is most in their favour.
  • POLL: if the next General Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish independence, how would you vote:

    SNP: 38%
    LAB: 22%
    CON: 16%
    LDN: 6%
    Undecided: 11%
    Wouldn’t vote: 4%

    Via @Survation, On 10-12 January.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,939
    DJ41 said:

    What a strange story. "More than 200 police officers are looking for Constance Marten and Mark Gordon".

    Why are they looking for them?

    Gordon is indeed a convicted rapist, but he served his sentence and was then deported back to Britain.

    Neither of them seem to be suspected of having committed any crimes that are still open cases.

    The Independent is a very strange newspaper. These articles are important because readers are supposed to nod and think "We hope the police catch these terribly wicked anti-social saboteur elements", without having the gumption to wonder whether they're actually suspected of doing anything against the law.

    MORE THAN 200 POLICE.

    The issue will be the child involvement, I think, the status/health of the child being unknown and, one might reasonably think, at risk. If it was just the woman and her partner I'm not convinced there would be much/any police involvement absent some evidence of the woman being held against her will/in danger.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,939

    mwadams said:

    I am forecasting a 5 point downward lurch for con on the back of zahawi. Sleazy broken Tories indeed.

    It will be really interesting to see if that pans out. If there isn't a downward spike, some level of "sleaze" is a baked in expectation. If there is, then the remaining Tory vote is still capable of being disappointed.
    I suspect the Tory voter will fall away more when Sunak surrenders to the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol.
    They're down to one voter now, you say?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,765
    email from National Rail:

    From 23rd January 2023, Penalty Fares will be changing.

    The Penalty Fare for travelling by train will increase from £20 to £100 plus the price of the full single fare applicable to your intended journey.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    "Starting to enquire" ?

    The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently. Or deliberately obstructive.

    https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
    Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.

    But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany


    Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.

    Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.

    I've been willing to give Germany credit for the help they have given, but on this matter, it's pretty pathetic now.

    The other annoying thing is that by banging on about these bloody leopards day in day out they are in danger of making the whole escalation thing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Supplying arms to a country to help defend itself is not escalatory.
    What is arming a country to attack a territory that has voted overwhelmingly in favour of becoming part of another country and hasn't been under the first country's control for 9 years?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-3)
    CON: 21% (=)
    GRN: 9% (+2)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    REF: 8% (+1)
    SNP: 5% (=)

    Via @PeoplePolling, On 18 January,
    Changes w/ 11 January.

    People polling seems to have a major problem in oversampling of the politically engaged fringes. No way Green and REF are on 9 and 8%.

    My fringe-trimming adjustments make that:

    Lab: 48%
    Con: 28%
    Ldm: 9%
    Grn: 5%
    Ref: 3%

    But then the fringes are probably also more likely to be anti Tory than anti-Labour, so maybe an additional adjustment to Lab 47% Con 29%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    DJ41 said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    "Starting to enquire" ?

    The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently. Or deliberately obstructive.

    https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
    Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.

    But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany


    Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.

    Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.

    I've been willing to give Germany credit for the help they have given, but on this matter, it's pretty pathetic now.

    The other annoying thing is that by banging on about these bloody leopards day in day out they are in danger of making the whole escalation thing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Supplying arms to a country to help defend itself is not escalatory.
    What is arming a country to attack a territory that has voted overwhelmingly in favour of becoming part of another country and hasn't been under the first country's control for 9 years?
    What is the Kremlin line ?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322

    email from National Rail:

    From 23rd January 2023, Penalty Fares will be changing.

    The Penalty Fare for travelling by train will increase from £20 to £100 plus the price of the full single fare applicable to your intended journey.

    Is that because 5 in 6 trains get cancelled and they want to keep the revenue from fines flat?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    DJ41 said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    "Starting to enquire" ?

    The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently. Or deliberately obstructive.

    https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
    Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.

    But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany


    Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.

    Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.

    I've been willing to give Germany credit for the help they have given, but on this matter, it's pretty pathetic now.

    The other annoying thing is that by banging on about these bloody leopards day in day out they are in danger of making the whole escalation thing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Supplying arms to a country to help defend itself is not escalatory.
    What is arming a country to attack a territory that has voted overwhelmingly in favour of becoming part of another country and hasn't been under the first country's control for 9 years?
    Significantly less escalatory than invading and annexing part of a sovereign country, murdering its civilians and drawing up plans to execute that country’s political leadership, comrade.

  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited January 20

    POLL: if the next General Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish independence, how would you vote:

    SNP: 38%
    LAB: 22%
    CON: 16%
    LDN: 6%
    Undecided: 11%
    Wouldn’t vote: 4%

    Via @Survation, On 10-12 January.

    The SNP are such bug-eyed fascist loons. They are far worse than UKIP ever were.

    If it's a de facto referendum what will they do if they score less than 50% of the vote? Because they wouldn't have been elected to run Scotland. Not if it was a de facto referendum. In Scotland you can say any old bucket of c*nting sh*t and get away with it if you curl your lip with hatred against the English, "Westminster", "the London media", foreign snakes trying to stop you getting what you want, etc., as you say it.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    Nigelb said:

    DJ41 said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    "Starting to enquire" ?

    The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently. Or deliberately obstructive.

    https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
    Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.

    But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany


    Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.

    Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.

    I've been willing to give Germany credit for the help they have given, but on this matter, it's pretty pathetic now.

    The other annoying thing is that by banging on about these bloody leopards day in day out they are in danger of making the whole escalation thing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Supplying arms to a country to help defend itself is not escalatory.
    What is arming a country to attack a territory that has voted overwhelmingly in favour of becoming part of another country and hasn't been under the first country's control for 9 years?
    What is the Kremlin line ?
    You just read it. From our pet troll, the one we decided to keep.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 141
    In many ways the Tories, would be better off with Labour winning an overall majority, which I think is a big ask for Starmer, then as sure as night follows day, their turn will come again, but if it is a hung parliament, I feel there is every chance of PR being implemented at some point, which would almost certainly lock out the Tories from governing ever again, I think the value bet is a hung parliament, I will wait until after the local elections before I take a punt.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    As a police officer, I was asked to undermine an alleged rape victim – I wish I could say it was a one-off

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/20/police-officer-alleged-rape-victim-david-carrick
    ...When questions are asked about David Carrick and about Sarah Everard’s killer, and the many many other offenders who either never reach the national news or just get away with it, I don’t see a pattern of cover-up and deceit that many outside the service perceive – instead, I see a level of unprofessionalism and incompetence that’s normal for all victims. That’s the scandal.

    I was involved in a rape investigation in which a female senior investigating officer directed me to pursue a line of inquiry solely intended to undermine the victim’s first account so that we could close down the investigation before command had to divert significant resources to it.

    That was on Wednesday 17 January 2023; the day after the news of Carrick and his scores of crimes against women broke. And nobody batted an eyelid...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    Conclusion: Republicans increasingly desire an even meaner, more ideological but much smarter and savvier Putinist for 2024?

    DeSantis fills the bill!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited January 20
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    DJ41 said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    "Starting to enquire" ?

    The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently. Or deliberately obstructive.

    https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
    Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.

    But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany


    Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.

    Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.

    I've been willing to give Germany credit for the help they have given, but on this matter, it's pretty pathetic now.

    The other annoying thing is that by banging on about these bloody leopards day in day out they are in danger of making the whole escalation thing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Supplying arms to a country to help defend itself is not escalatory.
    What is arming a country to attack a territory that has voted overwhelmingly in favour of becoming part of another country and hasn't been under the first country's control for 9 years?
    What is the Kremlin line ?
    You just read it. From our pet troll, the one we decided to keep.
    My question was in the style of Jeopardy.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeopardy!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    DJ41 said:

    POLL: if the next General Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish independence, how would you vote:

    SNP: 38%
    LAB: 22%
    CON: 16%
    LDN: 6%
    Undecided: 11%
    Wouldn’t vote: 4%

    Via @Survation, On 10-12 January.

    The SNP are such bug-eyed fascist loons. They are far worse than UKIP ever were.

    If it's a de facto referendum what will they do if they score less than 50% of the vote? Because they wouldn't have been elected to run Scotland. Not if it was a de facto referendum. In Scotland you can say any old bucket of c*nting sh*t and get away with it if you throw a snarl at the English, "Westminster", "the London media", foreign snakes trying to stop you getting what you want, etc., as you say it.
    Translation: if I can encourage the English to see Scottish political claims to independence as unnatural and dangerous, perhaps they will rethink their support for supposedly “independent” breakaway regions of the Russian empire.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    DJ41 said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    "Starting to enquire" ?

    The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently. Or deliberately obstructive.

    https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
    Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.

    But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany


    Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.

    Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.

    I've been willing to give Germany credit for the help they have given, but on this matter, it's pretty pathetic now.

    The other annoying thing is that by banging on about these bloody leopards day in day out they are in danger of making the whole escalation thing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Supplying arms to a country to help defend itself is not escalatory.
    What is arming a country to attack a territory that has voted overwhelmingly in favour of becoming part of another country and hasn't been under the first country's control for 9 years?
    What is the Kremlin line ?
    You just read it. From our pet troll, the one we decided to keep.
    My question was in the style of Jeopardy.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeopardy!
    Nice. (Like the biscuit. Or is that pronounced “nice”?)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    mickydroy said:

    In many ways the Tories, would be better off with Labour winning an overall majority, which I think is a big ask for Starmer, then as sure as night follows day, their turn will come again, but if it is a hung parliament, I feel there is every chance of PR being implemented at some point, which would almost certainly lock out the Tories from governing ever again, I think the value bet is a hung parliament, I will wait until after the local elections before I take a punt.

    If only they could look forward with more clarity they’d see that right of centre parties are in power as much under PR as in FPTP. For both the one nation Tories and the wingnuts PR is an opportunity. It’s only really a problem for those in currently ultra safe seats who are basic party loyalists.
  • Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator

  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 141
    TimS said:

    mickydroy said:

    In many ways the Tories, would be better off with Labour winning an overall majority, which I think is a big ask for Starmer, then as sure as night follows day, their turn will come again, but if it is a hung parliament, I feel there is every chance of PR being implemented at some point, which would almost certainly lock out the Tories from governing ever again, I think the value bet is a hung parliament, I will wait until after the local elections before I take a punt.

    If only they could look forward with more clarity they’d see that right of centre parties are in power as much under PR as in FPTP. For both the one nation Tories and the wingnuts PR is an opportunity. It’s only really a problem for those in currently ultra safe seats who are basic party loyalists.
    For labour to win outright, they would have to win a lot of seats that they have never even come close to winning ever, a hung parliament incoming
  • Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator

    One other point. Maybe I read on here or somewhere else that, if Trump resigns post-2 years, RDS could theoretically be a 10 year President (ie the two remaining years plus two terms). Not hard to see a deal where DJT promises to steps down after 2 years (and I think he would - by winning in 2024, he would have gotten his revenge)
  • FPT:
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Mr Meeks picking up on a quite remarkable stat:

    https://twitter.com/alastairmeeks/status/1616436001668218881?s=46&t=8TH3eoa6-Ts6tEIglDmzgg

    I’m quite surprised at the London data to be honest: it’s not been great here either. But it does say something about the “success” so far of levelling up.

    Given inner London is by far the wealthiest place in Europe per head and attracts therefore the most skilled and successful from across Europe still that is no surprise
    More remarkable is this nugget from the YouGov writeup;

    The strongest sense of decline appears in areas like Stoke-on-Trent (49%), Havering (48%), Thurrock (48%) and Rotherham (47%).

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/01/19/mrp-no-levelling-area-do-residents-tend-think-loca

    Havering is Romford and assorted bits around. Whatever's wrong here, it's not a problem of lack of levelling up. If anything, it's the opposite, as London continues to swell outwards and eastwards. There's something else going on here.

    (For those who are interested, but not that interested, the London boroughs seen as on the up are Hackney (38% generally improved), Islington (36%), Southwark (36%), and Tower Hamlets (34%). All of which make sense.)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,651
    How has Rishi not sacked Nadim yet?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,816

    Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator

    One other point. Maybe I read on here or somewhere else that, if Trump resigns post-2 years, RDS could theoretically be a 10 year President (ie the two remaining years plus two terms). Not hard to see a deal where DJT promises to steps down after 2 years (and I think he would - by winning in 2024, he would have gotten his revenge)
    Trump wouldn't resign. He would see it as a sign of weakness that "Alpha Males" like him don't have.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664

    FPT:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Mr Meeks picking up on a quite remarkable stat:

    https://twitter.com/alastairmeeks/status/1616436001668218881?s=46&t=8TH3eoa6-Ts6tEIglDmzgg

    I’m quite surprised at the London data to be honest: it’s not been great here either. But it does say something about the “success” so far of levelling up.

    Given inner London is by far the wealthiest place in Europe per head and attracts therefore the most skilled and successful from across Europe still that is no surprise
    More remarkable is this nugget from the YouGov writeup;

    The strongest sense of decline appears in areas like Stoke-on-Trent (49%), Havering (48%), Thurrock (48%) and Rotherham (47%).

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/01/19/mrp-no-levelling-area-do-residents-tend-think-loca

    Havering is Romford and assorted bits around. Whatever's wrong here, it's not a problem of lack of levelling up. If anything, it's the opposite, as London continues to swell outwards and eastwards. There's something else going on here.

    (For those who are interested, but not that interested, the London boroughs seen as on the up are Hackney (38% generally improved), Islington (36%), Southwark (36%), and Tower Hamlets (34%). All of which make sense.)
    Can’t be housing affordability either, or those inner London boroughs would have low scores as would places like Cornwall.

    It perhaps reflects disappointment and disillusionment with the Boris promises of
    2019. Being a remainer I forget that for a sizeable number of people Brexit was actually a great moment of hope and excitement for the future.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,354
    edited January 20
    Good afternoon

    On Sunak's negative ratings I believe it is not just coming from the expected sources but also the ERG, Truss, Farage grouping

    In many aspects Sunak comes over as well meaning but naive, and certainly avoidable errors like his seat belt are just silly and to be fair if he had been in the back seat of my car the red seat belt alarm would have been sounding on the dashboard

    He is in a difficult position and I have no doubt the ERG will be very angry when he does do a deal on the NIP not least following Bill Cash's recent comments following his meeting with the DUP

    For the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats then labour ones, and that in itself is remarkable

    I expect Starmer will win in 24 and the conservative party should take the time in opposition to rid itself of the remaining ERG and move back to a one nation parry

    Returning to Sunak he is the party's best hope of mitigating 24, and with Hunt holding the line on inflation pay rises which is brave especially with the nurses, between them they have stabilised the markets and hopefully providing the foundation for modest tax cuts in Spring 24
  • MaxPB said:

    How has Rishi not sacked Nadim yet?

    Pick one from:
    a) Rishi's position with his party is too weak to upset the applecart in any way,
    b) as one jetsetting millionaire to another, he doesn't think NZ did anything really wrong
    c) it would bring the Sunak's arrangements (totes legit, I'm sure) back under the spotlight
    d) some combination of the above.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    Er, major problem with notion of Trump for POTU with DiSantis for VP for Republicans in 2024, is the penalty imposed by US constitution upon any ticket that includes two candidates from the SAME state.

    Meaning that IF a Trump-DiSantis ticket carried their home state of Florida, then GOP electors from Sunshine State could vote for EITHER one or the other, but NOT both.

    Theoretically possible but practically about 99.46% unlikely.

    Of course Sage of Mar-a-Lardo could move his legal residence to some other state. But would NOT bet on it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    mickydroy said:

    In many ways the Tories, would be better off with Labour winning an overall majority, which I think is a big ask for Starmer, then as sure as night follows day, their turn will come again, but if it is a hung parliament, I feel there is every chance of PR being implemented at some point, which would almost certainly lock out the Tories from governing ever again, I think the value bet is a hung parliament, I will wait until after the local elections before I take a punt.

    PR also almost certainly means no Labour majority government again too. Plus if say Labour won a 1997 style landslide with 400 MPs under FPTP, over 100 of those MPs would lose their seats with PR. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

    It is also certainly possible to see future Tory and LD governments again with PR or even Tory and RefUK or even Tory and Labour German style grand coalitions (as well as Labour and Green or Labour and LD of course)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator

    Biden and Buttigieg would likely beat Trump and DeSantis.

    Biden and Harris however probably won't
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073

    MaxPB said:

    How has Rishi not sacked Nadim yet?

    Pick one from:
    a) Rishi's position with his party is too weak to upset the applecart in any way,
    b) as one jetsetting millionaire to another, he doesn't think NZ did anything really wrong
    c) it would bring the Sunak's arrangements (totes legit, I'm sure) back under the spotlight
    d) some combination of the above.
    (e) He can't sack him because he promised somebody or other that he would stay in the government in order to get elected.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,081

    Good afternoon

    On Sunak's negative ratings I believe it is not just coming from the expected sources but also the ERG, Truss, Farage grouping

    In many aspects Sunak comes over as well meaning but naive, and certainly avoidable errors like his seat belt are just silly and to be fair if he had been in the back seat of my car the red seat belt alarm would have been sounding on the dashboard

    He is in a difficult position and I have no doubt the ERG will be very angry when he does do a deal on the NIP not least following Bill Cash's recent comments following his meeting with the DUP

    For the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats then labour ones, and that in itself is remarkable

    I expect Starmer will win in 24 and the conservative party should take the time in opposition to rid itself of the remaining ERG and move back to a one nation parry

    Returning to Sunak he is the party's best hope of mitigating 24, and with Hunt holding the line on inflation pay rises which is brave especially with the nurses, between them they have stabilised the markets and hopefully providing the foundation for modest tax cuts in Spring 24

    Yes it looks like LAB majority time. I also think LAB will do quite well in Scotland maybe 15 to 20 seats as the shine continues to come off SNP.

    LAB 320 to 340 seats in an autumn 2024 GE. LAB would take 340 now if offered it, notwithstanding the current big polling leads.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    @fleetstreetfox: RT @MikeHolden42: If a penalty was paid, the claim @nadhimzahawi's "taxes are properly declared and paid in the UK" is a lie. If you… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616438832605417472
  • Good afternoon

    On Sunak's negative ratings I believe it is not just coming from the expected sources but also the ERG, Truss, Farage grouping

    In many aspects Sunak comes over as well meaning but naive, and certainly avoidable errors like his seat belt are just silly and to be fair if he had been in the back seat of my car the red seat belt alarm would have been sounding on the dashboard

    He is in a difficult position and I have no doubt the ERG will be very angry when he does do a deal on the NIP not least following Bill Cash's recent comments following his meeting with the DUP

    For the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats then labour ones, and that in itself is remarkable

    I expect Starmer will win in 24 and the conservative party should take the time in opposition to rid itself of the remaining ERG and move back to a one nation parry

    Returning to Sunak he is the party's best hope of mitigating 24, and with Hunt holding the line on inflation pay rises which is brave especially with the nurses, between them they have stabilised the markets and hopefully providing the foundation for modest tax cuts in Spring 24

    Yes it looks like LAB majority time. I also think LAB will do quite well in Scotland maybe 15 to 20 seats as the shine continues to come off SNP.

    LAB 320 to 340 seats in an autumn 2024 GE. LAB would take 340 now if offered it, notwithstanding the current big polling leads.
    That is not an unreasonable forecast
  • POLL: if the next General Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish independence, how would you vote:

    SNP: 38%
    LAB: 22%
    CON: 16%
    LDN: 6%
    Undecided: 11%
    Wouldn’t vote: 4%

    Via @Survation, On 10-12 January.

    I suspect many of the 'undecideds' would vote Labour if looks likely Starmer is going to be PM, but SNP if it looks like that the Tories will hang on.
    In other words, Nicola needs Sir Keir to fuck up between now and the next election.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    ...

    Good afternoon

    On Sunak's negative ratings I believe it is not just coming from the expected sources but also the ERG, Truss, Farage grouping

    In many aspects Sunak comes over as well meaning but naive, and certainly avoidable errors like his seat belt are just silly and to be fair if he had been in the back seat of my car the red seat belt alarm would have been sounding on the dashboard

    He is in a difficult position and I have no doubt the ERG will be very angry when he does do a deal on the NIP not least following Bill Cash's recent comments following his meeting with the DUP

    For the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats then labour ones, and that in itself is remarkable

    I expect Starmer will win in 24 and the conservative party should take the time in opposition to rid itself of the remaining ERG and move back to a one nation parry

    Returning to Sunak he is the party's best hope of mitigating 24, and with Hunt holding the line on inflation pay rises which is brave especially with the nurses, between them they have stabilised the markets and hopefully providing the foundation for modest tax cuts in Spring 24

    Yes it looks like LAB majority time. I also think LAB will do quite well in Scotland maybe 15 to 20 seats as the shine continues to come off SNP.

    LAB 320 to 340 seats in an autumn 2024 GE. LAB would take 340 now if offered it, notwithstanding the current big polling leads.
    That is not an unreasonable forecast
    A Johnson redux on the other hand would give the Tories a comfortable majority.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,765
    ChatGPT explains UK's economic problems, in the style of Oscar Wilde.

    "And that, my dear, is the state of the British economy, a portrait of Dorian Gray, where all the ugliness and horror is hidden behind a façade of prosperity"

    Perfect.


    https://twitter.com/ShahrukhWani/status/1616055689729945606
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    The Archbishop of Canterbury commented on the proposals that would allow same-sex unions to be blessed:
    ... because of my pastoral care and responsibility of being a focus of unity for the whole communion I will - while being extremely joyfully celebratory of these new resources - I will not personally use them in order to compromise that pastoral care

    Not sure whether there's a "not" missing from that sentence, though what with the "I will ... I will not" its construction is a bit confusing.

    Gay couples will no doubt take heart from the fact that the archbishop is "extremely joyfully celebratory" of the fact he could have give a blessing, but won't.

    I wonder, could the archbishop be any more emphatically on the fence without actually impaling a delicate part of his anatomy?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator

    No lose ?

    Here's a (partial) list of VP picks to losing presidential campaigns.
    Do I need to comment further ?

    Mike Pence
    Tim Kaine
    Paul Ryan
    Sarah Palin
    John Edwards
    Joe Lieberman
    Jack Kemp
    Dan Quayle
    Lloyd Bentsen
    Geraldine Ferraro
    Walter Mondale
    Bob Dole
    Sargent Shriver
    Edmund Muskie
  • ...

    Good afternoon

    On Sunak's negative ratings I believe it is not just coming from the expected sources but also the ERG, Truss, Farage grouping

    In many aspects Sunak comes over as well meaning but naive, and certainly avoidable errors like his seat belt are just silly and to be fair if he had been in the back seat of my car the red seat belt alarm would have been sounding on the dashboard

    He is in a difficult position and I have no doubt the ERG will be very angry when he does do a deal on the NIP not least following Bill Cash's recent comments following his meeting with the DUP

    For the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats then labour ones, and that in itself is remarkable

    I expect Starmer will win in 24 and the conservative party should take the time in opposition to rid itself of the remaining ERG and move back to a one nation parry

    Returning to Sunak he is the party's best hope of mitigating 24, and with Hunt holding the line on inflation pay rises which is brave especially with the nurses, between them they have stabilised the markets and hopefully providing the foundation for modest tax cuts in Spring 24

    Yes it looks like LAB majority time. I also think LAB will do quite well in Scotland maybe 15 to 20 seats as the shine continues to come off SNP.

    LAB 320 to 340 seats in an autumn 2024 GE. LAB would take 340 now if offered it, notwithstanding the current big polling leads.
    That is not an unreasonable forecast
    A Johnson redux on the other hand would give the Tories a comfortable majority.
    Only in the head of Dorries and other zealots
  • US press conference from Ramstein is an utter embarrassment for Germany and its appeasement
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,975

    Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator
    Anybody who wants to bet this scenario can get 17 on RDS for the VP pick. Good value if you think it's at all likely.
  • kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator
    Anybody who wants to bet this scenario can get 17 on RDS for the VP pick. Good value if you think it's at all likely.
    I will put a few quid on that. I had RDS at 12/1 for the nomination so happy with that
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,036

    Good afternoon

    On Sunak's negative ratings I believe it is not just coming from the expected sources but also the ERG, Truss, Farage grouping

    In many aspects Sunak comes over as well meaning but naive, and certainly avoidable errors like his seat belt are just silly and to be fair if he had been in the back seat of my car the red seat belt alarm would have been sounding on the dashboard

    He is in a difficult position and I have no doubt the ERG will be very angry when he does do a deal on the NIP not least following Bill Cash's recent comments following his meeting with the DUP

    For the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats then labour ones, and that in itself is remarkable

    I expect Starmer will win in 24 and the conservative party should take the time in opposition to rid itself of the remaining ERG and move back to a one nation parry

    Returning to Sunak he is the party's best hope of mitigating 24, and with Hunt holding the line on inflation pay rises which is brave especially with the nurses, between them they have stabilised the markets and hopefully providing the foundation for modest tax cuts in Spring 24

    Yes it looks like LAB majority time. I also think LAB will do quite well in Scotland maybe 15 to 20 seats as the shine continues to come off SNP.

    LAB 320 to 340 seats in an autumn 2024 GE. LAB would take 340 now if offered it, notwithstanding the current big polling leads.
    Yes this is kind of where I am.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator

    No lose ?

    Here's a (partial) list of VP picks to losing presidential campaigns.
    Do I need to comment further ?

    Mike Pence
    Tim Kaine
    Paul Ryan
    Sarah Palin
    John Edwards
    Joe Lieberman
    Jack Kemp
    Dan Quayle
    Lloyd Bentsen
    Geraldine Ferraro
    Walter Mondale
    Bob Dole
    Sargent Shriver
    Edmund Muskie
    As I said in the original post, RDS would position a Trump defeat as the fault of Trump and, given DJT will be gone and old, no one is going to dispute that. Plus, also as I said, if Harris is the VP pick at that point, he's likely to come out best in that debate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    Chris said:

    The Archbishop of Canterbury commented on the proposals that would allow same-sex unions to be blessed:
    ... because of my pastoral care and responsibility of being a focus of unity for the whole communion I will - while being extremely joyfully celebratory of these new resources - I will not personally use them in order to compromise that pastoral care

    Not sure whether there's a "not" missing from that sentence, though what with the "I will ... I will not" its construction is a bit confusing.

    Gay couples will no doubt take heart from the fact that the archbishop is "extremely joyfully celebratory" of the fact he could have give a blessing, but won't.

    I wonder, could the archbishop be any more emphatically on the fence without actually impaling a delicate part of his anatomy?

    Welby is an evangelical, the natural cycle is the next Archbishop will be a liberal Catholic who almost certainly will bless homosexual marriages. See Runcie - liberal Catholic, Carey - evangelical, Williams - liberal Catholic etc.

    By then full homosexual marriage may well have got through Synod anyway (with opt outs for evangelicals who object as now for Anglo Catholic Parishes who object to women priests and Bishops and for Vicars who don't want to marry divorcees).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,975

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator
    Anybody who wants to bet this scenario can get 17 on RDS for the VP pick. Good value if you think it's at all likely.
    I will put a few quid on that. I had RDS at 12/1 for the nomination so happy with that
    I don't see it myself but 17 is a bigger price than I thought it'd be.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,145
    Chris said:

    The Archbishop of Canterbury commented on the proposals that would allow same-sex unions to be blessed:
    ... because of my pastoral care and responsibility of being a focus of unity for the whole communion I will - while being extremely joyfully celebratory of these new resources - I will not personally use them in order to compromise that pastoral care

    Not sure whether there's a "not" missing from that sentence, though what with the "I will ... I will not" its construction is a bit confusing.

    Gay couples will no doubt take heart from the fact that the archbishop is "extremely joyfully celebratory" of the fact he could have give a blessing, but won't.

    I wonder, could the archbishop be any more emphatically on the fence without actually impaling a delicate part of his anatomy?

    The purpose of the Archbishop of Canterbury is to be nice to absolutely everyone, all the time and all at once.

    Unfortunately, some silly fools in the CoE have decided to make a religious issue out of things.
  • HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator

    Biden and Buttigieg would likely beat Trump and DeSantis.

    Biden and Harris however probably won't
    No offence meant but have you been playing attention to what's been happening in the US with transportation? Pete B would be crucified by RDS.

    Not to mention the fact that the Black voting block - particularly Black women - are not doing to be chuffed about Harris being dumped for a white guy.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    HYUFD said:

    ... full homosexual marriage may well have got through Synod ...

    No, it didn't.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator
    Anybody who wants to bet this scenario can get 17 on RDS for the VP pick. Good value if you think it's at all likely.
    I will put a few quid on that. I had RDS at 12/1 for the nomination so happy with that
    I don't see it myself but 17 is a bigger price than I thought it'd be.
    Same here. Personally, I think it's great odds (but I would)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,240
    Well, looks like I was wrong about the tanks, which is disappointing.

    I think the UK have to keep hold of a couple of dozen Challengers to fulfil our commitments in Estonia and Poland, but otherwise I hope we'll give all of the rest to Ukraine as soon as possible. Not much point in only giving them a dozen on our own. Maybe we can get the Americans, or someone to backfill for us in Estonia and Poland and just send them all.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator

    No lose ?

    Here's a (partial) list of VP picks to losing presidential campaigns.
    Do I need to comment further ?

    Mike Pence
    Tim Kaine
    Paul Ryan
    Sarah Palin
    John Edwards
    Joe Lieberman
    Jack Kemp
    Dan Quayle
    Lloyd Bentsen
    Geraldine Ferraro
    Walter Mondale
    Bob Dole
    Sargent Shriver
    Edmund Muskie
    You left out Franklin D. Roosevelt (1920 Dem VP nominee) HOWEVER this is exception proving your rule.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    The Archbishop of Canterbury commented on the proposals that would allow same-sex unions to be blessed:
    ... because of my pastoral care and responsibility of being a focus of unity for the whole communion I will - while being extremely joyfully celebratory of these new resources - I will not personally use them in order to compromise that pastoral care

    Not sure whether there's a "not" missing from that sentence, though what with the "I will ... I will not" its construction is a bit confusing.

    Gay couples will no doubt take heart from the fact that the archbishop is "extremely joyfully celebratory" of the fact he could have give a blessing, but won't.

    I wonder, could the archbishop be any more emphatically on the fence without actually impaling a delicate part of his anatomy?

    Welby is an evangelical, the natural cycle is the next Archbishop will be a liberal Catholic who almost certainly will bless homosexual marriages. See Runcie - liberal Catholic, Carey - evangelical, Williams - liberal Catholic etc.

    By then full homosexual marriage may well have got through Synod anyway (with opt outs for evangelicals who object as now for Anglo Catholic Parishes who object to women priests and Bishops and for Vicars who don't want to marry divorcees).
    What about our bet?

    I don't think it (same sex marriage in the CofE) will happen in the next two years.

    A tenner to the charity of the winner's choice?
  • Er, major problem with notion of Trump for POTU with DiSantis for VP for Republicans in 2024, is the penalty imposed by US constitution upon any ticket that includes two candidates from the SAME state.

    Meaning that IF a Trump-DiSantis ticket carried their home state of Florida, then GOP electors from Sunshine State could vote for EITHER one or the other, but NOT both.

    Theoretically possible but practically about 99.46% unlikely.

    Of course Sage of Mar-a-Lardo could move his legal residence to some other state. But would NOT bet on it.

    Fair point but how hard is it for DJT to skip his legal residence to Alabama or Mississippi even if temporary (tax issues probably key here).
  • beinndeargbeinndearg Posts: 676

    Chris said:

    The Archbishop of Canterbury commented on the proposals that would allow same-sex unions to be blessed:
    ... because of my pastoral care and responsibility of being a focus of unity for the whole communion I will - while being extremely joyfully celebratory of these new resources - I will not personally use them in order to compromise that pastoral care

    Not sure whether there's a "not" missing from that sentence, though what with the "I will ... I will not" its construction is a bit confusing.

    Gay couples will no doubt take heart from the fact that the archbishop is "extremely joyfully celebratory" of the fact he could have give a blessing, but won't.

    I wonder, could the archbishop be any more emphatically on the fence without actually impaling a delicate part of his anatomy?

    The purpose of the Archbishop of Canterbury is to be nice to absolutely everyone, all the time and all at once.

    Unfortunately, some silly fools in the CoE have decided to make a religious issue out of things.
    I do hope George turns out to be gay.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,813
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Off topic, but of interest to anyone who bets on American elections: This analysis by Aaron Blake:
    "Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.

    Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/

    It's notable that the Trump/DeSantis odds for the Presidency (Betfair Exchange) are around 4 and 6 respectively.

    While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
    Increasingly my view is that Trump and DeSantis will do a deal with Trump running again and RDS as VP pick. The advantages for RDS are:

    1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).

    2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).

    3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator

    No lose ?

    Here's a (partial) list of VP picks to losing presidential campaigns.
    Do I need to comment further ?

    Mike Pence
    Tim Kaine
    Paul Ryan
    Sarah Palin
    John Edwards
    Joe Lieberman
    Jack Kemp
    Dan Quayle
    Lloyd Bentsen
    Geraldine Ferraro
    Walter Mondale
    Bob Dole
    Sargent Shriver
    Edmund Muskie
    I'm staggered to think that Sarah Palin was four presidential campaigns in the past - 2008. It shows the Republicans have been batshit crazy since long before Trump infected them.
  • TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    The Archbishop of Canterbury commented on the proposals that would allow same-sex unions to be blessed:
    ... because of my pastoral care and responsibility of being a focus of unity for the whole communion I will - while being extremely joyfully celebratory of these new resources - I will not personally use them in order to compromise that pastoral care

    Not sure whether there's a "not" missing from that sentence, though what with the "I will ... I will not" its construction is a bit confusing.

    Gay couples will no doubt take heart from the fact that the archbishop is "extremely joyfully celebratory" of the fact he could have give a blessing, but won't.

    I wonder, could the archbishop be any more emphatically on the fence without actually impaling a delicate part of his anatomy?

    Welby is an evangelical, the natural cycle is the next Archbishop will be a liberal Catholic who almost certainly will bless homosexual marriages. See Runcie - liberal Catholic, Carey - evangelical, Williams - liberal Catholic etc.

    By then full homosexual marriage may well have got through Synod anyway (with opt outs for evangelicals who object as now for Anglo Catholic Parishes who object to women priests and Bishops and for Vicars who don't want to marry divorcees).
    What about our bet?

    I don't think it (same sex marriage in the CofE) will happen in the next two years.

    A tenner to the charity of the winner's choice?
    It shames the COE that it will not agree to same sex marriage
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,145

    Chris said:

    The Archbishop of Canterbury commented on the proposals that would allow same-sex unions to be blessed:
    ... because of my pastoral care and responsibility of being a focus of unity for the whole communion I will - while being extremely joyfully celebratory of these new resources - I will not personally use them in order to compromise that pastoral care

    Not sure whether there's a "not" missing from that sentence, though what with the "I will ... I will not" its construction is a bit confusing.

    Gay couples will no doubt take heart from the fact that the archbishop is "extremely joyfully celebratory" of the fact he could have give a blessing, but won't.

    I wonder, could the archbishop be any more emphatically on the fence without actually impaling a delicate part of his anatomy?

    The purpose of the Archbishop of Canterbury is to be nice to absolutely everyone, all the time and all at once.

    Unfortunately, some silly fools in the CoE have decided to make a religious issue out of things.
    I do hope George turns out to be gay.
    Trans....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    ...

    Good afternoon

    On Sunak's negative ratings I believe it is not just coming from the expected sources but also the ERG, Truss, Farage grouping

    In many aspects Sunak comes over as well meaning but naive, and certainly avoidable errors like his seat belt are just silly and to be fair if he had been in the back seat of my car the red seat belt alarm would have been sounding on the dashboard

    He is in a difficult position and I have no doubt the ERG will be very angry when he does do a deal on the NIP not least following Bill Cash's recent comments following his meeting with the DUP

    For the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats then labour ones, and that in itself is remarkable

    I expect Starmer will win in 24 and the conservative party should take the time in opposition to rid itself of the remaining ERG and move back to a one nation parry

    Returning to Sunak he is the party's best hope of mitigating 24, and with Hunt holding the line on inflation pay rises which is brave especially with the nurses, between them they have stabilised the markets and hopefully providing the foundation for modest tax cuts in Spring 24

    Yes it looks like LAB majority time. I also think LAB will do quite well in Scotland maybe 15 to 20 seats as the shine continues to come off SNP.

    LAB 320 to 340 seats in an autumn 2024 GE. LAB would take 340 now if offered it, notwithstanding the current big polling leads.
    That is not an unreasonable forecast
    A Johnson redux on the other hand would give the Tories a comfortable majority.
    Only in the head of Dorries and other zealots
    You and I might not be too keen. However there are plenty who can see Emperor Johnson's new clothes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    The Archbishop of Canterbury commented on the proposals that would allow same-sex unions to be blessed:
    ... because of my pastoral care and responsibility of being a focus of unity for the whole communion I will - while being extremely joyfully celebratory of these new resources - I will not personally use them in order to compromise that pastoral care

    Not sure whether there's a "not" missing from that sentence, though what with the "I will ... I will not" its construction is a bit confusing.

    Gay couples will no doubt take heart from the fact that the archbishop is "extremely joyfully celebratory" of the fact he could have give a blessing, but won't.

    I wonder, could the archbishop be any more emphatically on the fence without actually impaling a delicate part of his anatomy?

    Welby is an evangelical, the natural cycle is the next Archbishop will be a liberal Catholic who almost certainly will bless homosexual marriages. See Runcie - liberal Catholic, Carey - evangelical, Williams - liberal Catholic etc.

    By then full homosexual marriage may well have got through Synod anyway (with opt outs for evangelicals who object as now for Anglo Catholic Parishes who object to women priests and Bishops and for Vicars who don't want to marry divorcees).
    What about our bet?

    I don't think it (same sex marriage in the CofE) will happen in the next two years.

    A tenner to the charity of the winner's choice?
    It will happen within 2 years on a conscience basis as with women priests.

    Prayers and blessings for homosexual marriages is a step in the right direction. Evangelicals don't have enough votes at Synod to block it completely
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,145

    Well, looks like I was wrong about the tanks, which is disappointing.

    I think the UK have to keep hold of a couple of dozen Challengers to fulfil our commitments in Estonia and Poland, but otherwise I hope we'll give all of the rest to Ukraine as soon as possible. Not much point in only giving them a dozen on our own. Maybe we can get the Americans, or someone to backfill for us in Estonia and Poland and just send them all.

    It does make you wonder about the future of the German and Swiss arms industries. The Leopard 2s are coming up for replacement in many countries. After the big Polish sale, the Americans and South Koreans are looking good for that....
This discussion has been closed.