Categories
Sunak a net 10% behind Starmer in latest approval ratings – politicalbetting.com
Sunak a net 10% behind Starmer in latest approval ratings – politicalbetting.com
Continuing our monthly tracker day is leadership approval – tracking since @RishiSunak became Prime Minister. As it stands, there are ten points between the Prime Minister and @Keir_Starmer… (1/2) pic.twitter.com/ww3WTeseby
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://twitter.com/chrisnowinski1/status/1616101814830505985?s=61&t=9FJCUc3-5umtH7ussw7J4w
We invented and codified cricket, football, rugby, skiing, golf, tennis, netball, boxing, hockey, badminton, mountaineering and croquet
Americans invented THIS
I think that he is a full cabinet minister, so would be a candidate for the next cabinet minister to depart.
Sunak is still closer to Starmer than the Tories are to Labour
"Starting to enquire" ?
The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently. Or deliberately obstructive.
https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.
But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany
Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.
Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.
I've been willing to give Germany credit for the help they have given, but on this matter, it's pretty pathetic now.
https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1616367268748836864
Scott_xP said:
@JohnRentoul: More details of Zahawi tax case from @Annaisaac https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jan/20/nadhim-zahawi-agreed-on-penalty-to-settle-tax-bill-worth-millions
Interesting but be careful what is inferred from this. It's a while since I dealt with this kind of thing and I've not kept up to speed with the changes since, although I doubt the principles will have changed.
Penalties used only to be applied in serious or clear cut cases. Mostly inspectors were happy enough to charge the tax and interest. Penalties moved matters on to a different level and there were clear guidelines on how to apply them.
You would start from a theoretical 100% and then discount for size, gravity and co-operation. I think we can take it that this case was fairly big, though not the very biggest. Gravity would be low if this were, say, a tax avoidance scheme that had gone wrong, as that would suggest a difference of opinion rather than deliberate dishonesty. Co-operation is self-explanatory and one assumes he got most of the available discount for that.
Thirty percent sounds quite high to me for a negotiated settlement. Once you get above fifty percent a lot of taxpayers would tend to say 'dammit I'll see you in court' where the same weightings apply but are not negotiable.
I'm intrigued however as to how the Guardian came to know all this. The Department was pretty hot on confidentiality, in my day at least. I cannot imagine how this has come to light other than through a leak, and personally I'm not crazy about anyone being pilloried as a result of a deliberate leak of such private information. Does more harm than good, imo, so even if he has been a naughty boy, would I want him sacked as a result of the leak?
I think not, but maybe there's more to it.
Hanwa Industries export department will be delighted.
That's utterly depraved.
https://twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1616392078421794816
Sounds like a purge of those who support NATO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjSUk9o-D6E
Personally am a fan of this WAY more than whatever it is that is (apparently) Leon's favorite sport.
Despite fact that Olde Englishe Cheese Rolling results in FAR more bloodshed and mayhem.
Now it may be that he would have been obliged to report the matter to the Cabinet Secretary (I just don't know about that) and you would imagine then that the PM would at the very least exclude him from Treasury Appointments. That isn't the same as trial by public opinion though, which is where you land up with leaks. They also discourage cooperation where it is in everyone's interest that confidentiality should be respected, and secrecy tight.
So I'm more than a little unhappy at what seems to be going on here.
Btw, I accept the leak is as likely as not to have come from his own Party.
Tell me, which country besides Germany opposes? At least one?
https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1616434985187115009
Austria ?
"Polls of the 2024 race since then have been piecemeal and mostly focused on the GOP primary, showing DeSantis eroding and perhaps erasing Trump’s status as the presumptive favorite. (We’ve had DeSantis ahead of Trump in our 2024 GOP nomination rankings for a while now.) But the few that have compared Trump and DeSantis in general election matchups appear to confirm the difference in viability.
Most recently came a survey from a GOP pollster for the Club for Growth. It shows Trump trailing President Biden by eight points in a 2024 rematch, but DeSantis with a three-point lead (which is inside the margin of error) — which amounts to a gap of 11 points between their respective margins."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/growing-trump-desantis-electability-gap/
The biggest losers are the SNP, Labour and the Tories. In that order.
So I doubt it will happen now
Still, maybe a delay isn’t such a bad idea. There must be some advantage to Ukraine in terms of attrition if Russia continues to grind out a very expensive and slow advance around Bakhmut, so long as attacker losses of mem and equipment are significantly greater
than defenders. The more manpower and ammunition they’ve expended before a Ukrainian offensive, the less able they’ll be to defend against it. Then along come the leopards.
Like wearing out the bowlers with long sessions of blocking before letting rip on a tired field.
However yes they also have Biden 4% ahead of Trump with all voters but only tied with DeSantis
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
LAB: 45% (-3)
CON: 21% (=)
GRN: 9% (+2)
LDM: 9% (+1)
REF: 8% (+1)
SNP: 5% (=)
Via @PeoplePolling, On 18 January,
Changes w/ 11 January.
They need time, if they get the tanks, to integrate them into the army for the much discussed spring campaign. That's more likely to be a war of manoeuvre than the current static attrition - which is killing large numbers of Ukrainians as well as Russians.
Why are they looking for them?
Gordon is indeed a convicted rapist, but he served his sentence and was then deported back to Britain.
Neither of them seem to be suspected of having committed any crimes that are still open cases.
The Independent is a very strange newspaper. These articles are important because readers are supposed to nod and think "We hope the police catch these terribly wicked anti-social saboteur elements", without having the gumption to wonder whether they're actually suspected of doing anything that's against the law.
MORE THAN 200 POLICE.
SNP: 38%
LAB: 22%
CON: 16%
LDN: 6%
Undecided: 11%
Wouldn’t vote: 4%
Via @Survation, On 10-12 January.
While for the nomination, Trump is actually shorter odds.
From 23rd January 2023, Penalty Fares will be changing.
The Penalty Fare for travelling by train will increase from £20 to £100 plus the price of the full single fare applicable to your intended journey.
My fringe-trimming adjustments make that:
Lab: 48%
Con: 28%
Ldm: 9%
Grn: 5%
Ref: 3%
But then the fringes are probably also more likely to be anti Tory than anti-Labour, so maybe an additional adjustment to Lab 47% Con 29%.
If it's a de facto referendum what will they do if they score less than 50% of the vote? Because they wouldn't have been elected to run Scotland. Not if it was a de facto referendum. In Scotland you can say any old bucket of c*nting sh*t and get away with it if you curl your lip with hatred against the English, "Westminster", "the London media", foreign snakes trying to stop you getting what you want, etc., as you say it.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/20/police-officer-alleged-rape-victim-david-carrick
...When questions are asked about David Carrick and about Sarah Everard’s killer, and the many many other offenders who either never reach the national news or just get away with it, I don’t see a pattern of cover-up and deceit that many outside the service perceive – instead, I see a level of unprofessionalism and incompetence that’s normal for all victims. That’s the scandal.
I was involved in a rape investigation in which a female senior investigating officer directed me to pursue a line of inquiry solely intended to undermine the victim’s first account so that we could close down the investigation before command had to divert significant resources to it.
That was on Wednesday 17 January 2023; the day after the news of Carrick and his scores of crimes against women broke. And nobody batted an eyelid...
DeSantis fills the bill!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeopardy!
1. He avoids a scrap with DJT and he's young enough to wait 4 years for the nomination (which I think he would get either way ie if Trump wins or is defeated).
2. It's a no-lose situation - either DJT wins and he's VP or DJT loses and RDS can say it was Trump's fault (and he probably destroys Harris in the VP debate).
3. Running now is a risk - he loses the nomination to DJT, he encourages others in 4 years time and / or DJT picks another VP and DJT wins, he's down the list. Lose the election to Biden (or whoever) now, he's toast. As a Governor, it's a lot harder to come back if you lose than if you are a Senator
The strongest sense of decline appears in areas like Stoke-on-Trent (49%), Havering (48%), Thurrock (48%) and Rotherham (47%).
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/01/19/mrp-no-levelling-area-do-residents-tend-think-loca
Havering is Romford and assorted bits around. Whatever's wrong here, it's not a problem of lack of levelling up. If anything, it's the opposite, as London continues to swell outwards and eastwards. There's something else going on here.
(For those who are interested, but not that interested, the London boroughs seen as on the up are Hackney (38% generally improved), Islington (36%), Southwark (36%), and Tower Hamlets (34%). All of which make sense.)
It perhaps reflects disappointment and disillusionment with the Boris promises of
2019. Being a remainer I forget that for a sizeable number of people Brexit was actually a great moment of hope and excitement for the future.
On Sunak's negative ratings I believe it is not just coming from the expected sources but also the ERG, Truss, Farage grouping
In many aspects Sunak comes over as well meaning but naive, and certainly avoidable errors like his seat belt are just silly and to be fair if he had been in the back seat of my car the red seat belt alarm would have been sounding on the dashboard
He is in a difficult position and I have no doubt the ERG will be very angry when he does do a deal on the NIP not least following Bill Cash's recent comments following his meeting with the DUP
For the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats then labour ones, and that in itself is remarkable
I expect Starmer will win in 24 and the conservative party should take the time in opposition to rid itself of the remaining ERG and move back to a one nation parry
Returning to Sunak he is the party's best hope of mitigating 24, and with Hunt holding the line on inflation pay rises which is brave especially with the nurses, between them they have stabilised the markets and hopefully providing the foundation for modest tax cuts in Spring 24
a) Rishi's position with his party is too weak to upset the applecart in any way,
b) as one jetsetting millionaire to another, he doesn't think NZ did anything really wrong
c) it would bring the Sunak's arrangements (totes legit, I'm sure) back under the spotlight
d) some combination of the above.
Meaning that IF a Trump-DiSantis ticket carried their home state of Florida, then GOP electors from Sunshine State could vote for EITHER one or the other, but NOT both.
Theoretically possible but practically about 99.46% unlikely.
Of course Sage of Mar-a-Lardo could move his legal residence to some other state. But would NOT bet on it.
It is also certainly possible to see future Tory and LD governments again with PR or even Tory and RefUK or even Tory and Labour German style grand coalitions (as well as Labour and Green or Labour and LD of course)
Biden and Harris however probably won't
LAB 320 to 340 seats in an autumn 2024 GE. LAB would take 340 now if offered it, notwithstanding the current big polling leads.
In other words, Nicola needs Sir Keir to fuck up between now and the next election.
"And that, my dear, is the state of the British economy, a portrait of Dorian Gray, where all the ugliness and horror is hidden behind a façade of prosperity"
Perfect.
https://twitter.com/ShahrukhWani/status/1616055689729945606
... because of my pastoral care and responsibility of being a focus of unity for the whole communion I will - while being extremely joyfully celebratory of these new resources - I will not personally use them in order to compromise that pastoral care
Not sure whether there's a "not" missing from that sentence, though what with the "I will ... I will not" its construction is a bit confusing.
Gay couples will no doubt take heart from the fact that the archbishop is "extremely joyfully celebratory" of the fact he could have give a blessing, but won't.
I wonder, could the archbishop be any more emphatically on the fence without actually impaling a delicate part of his anatomy?
Here's a (partial) list of VP picks to losing presidential campaigns.
Do I need to comment further ?
Mike Pence
Tim Kaine
Paul Ryan
Sarah Palin
John Edwards
Joe Lieberman
Jack Kemp
Dan Quayle
Lloyd Bentsen
Geraldine Ferraro
Walter Mondale
Bob Dole
Sargent Shriver
Edmund Muskie
By then full homosexual marriage may well have got through Synod anyway (with opt outs for evangelicals who object as now for Anglo Catholic Parishes who object to women priests and Bishops and for Vicars who don't want to marry divorcees).
Unfortunately, some silly fools in the CoE have decided to make a religious issue out of things.
Not to mention the fact that the Black voting block - particularly Black women - are not doing to be chuffed about Harris being dumped for a white guy.
I think the UK have to keep hold of a couple of dozen Challengers to fulfil our commitments in Estonia and Poland, but otherwise I hope we'll give all of the rest to Ukraine as soon as possible. Not much point in only giving them a dozen on our own. Maybe we can get the Americans, or someone to backfill for us in Estonia and Poland and just send them all.
I don't think it (same sex marriage in the CofE) will happen in the next two years.
A tenner to the charity of the winner's choice?
Prayers and blessings for homosexual marriages is a step in the right direction. Evangelicals don't have enough votes at Synod to block it completely