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The Rail Strikes: This from Opinium is not good for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,736
edited January 2023 in General
imageThe Rail Strikes: This from Opinium is not good for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    A first?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    Everyone else on strike?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,054

    Everyone else on strike?

    Not yet, but the physiotherapists and junior doctors are balloting this week...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    I don't think the numbers are that bad for the government. Most voters don't approve of the RMT's handling of the dispute as well as theirs
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816
    Seems strange to ask about the RMT but not ASLEF.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816
    HYUFD said:

    I don't think the numbers are that bad for the government. Most voters don't approve of the RMT's handling of the dispute as well as theirs

    Are you looking at a different graphic to the rest of us?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited January 2023

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think the numbers are that bad for the government. Most voters don't approve of the RMT's handling of the dispute as well as theirs

    Are you looking at a different graphic to the rest of us?
    No, voters oppose the railworkers and drivers' strike 46% to 38%

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1614352509899886592?t=WdApn7uQNOY_q6PWuL8vXQ&s=19

    Even if they back the nurses' strike 57% to 31%

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1614352502912155652?t=ftMmA8GGJ8Ux2A7dyo4nCQ&s=19
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    Somebody is trying to bury BoZo

    @Gabriel_Pogrund: EXCLUSIVE w/@HarryYorke1

    Boris Johnson funded his lifestyle in No10 through a credit facility of up to £800,000 u… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614384062675800065
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    I don't think the numbers are that bad for the government. Most voters don't approve of the RMT's handling of the dispute as well as theirs

    :lol:
    image
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    There just comes a time when any Government cannot poll well on anything. The curtain falls. People are sick of the sight of them and just stop listening.

    It doesn't help when a party is as hapless as the Tories who are facing some monumental, self inflicted challenges with the talent of Scunthorpe's B Team.....so as HYUD saids these are pretty good polls. You have to eat the crumbs where you can find them.....

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @JournoStephen: RT @Gaylussite: Tory MPs sowing: Haha fuck yeah!!! Yes!!

    Tory MPs reaping: Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck. https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1614185439224537089
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @SunPolitics: Nadhim Zahawi agrees to pay several million in tax after scrutiny of finances https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/21046397/chancellor-nadhim-zahawi-tax/
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    Scott_xP said:

    Somebody is trying to bury BoZo

    @Gabriel_Pogrund: EXCLUSIVE w/@HarryYorke1

    Boris Johnson funded his lifestyle in No10 through a credit facility of up to £800,000 u… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614384062675800065

    I hope they staked him through the heart with a silver stick soaked in garlic first. Just to be safe...
  • Options
    DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    DougSeal said:

    Tried the Prince Harry trick of putting Elizabeth Arden cream on the Old Man this evening. Has changed my life!

    Nothing like a bit of Granny 'Arden cream to help Dad in his time of need.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited January 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    @JournoStephen: RT @Gaylussite: Tory MPs sowing: Haha fuck yeah!!! Yes!!

    Tory MPs reaping: Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck. https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1614185439224537089

    Note 60% of 35 to 44 year olds still own their own home, even in 2015 and 2019 when they won a majority the Tories lost under 35s.

    Getting rising mortgage rates under control is a more pressing concern and that also means keeping a lid on inflation and not overspending

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1614187950966988803?s=20&t=Oy-r_4pjY__89WX6koOsew
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    Scott_xP said:

    @SunPolitics: Nadhim Zahawi agrees to pay several million in tax after scrutiny of finances https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/21046397/chancellor-nadhim-zahawi-tax/

    Lucky he isn’t still Chancellor, then
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,897
    Scott_xP said:

    @SunPolitics: Nadhim Zahawi agrees to pay several million in tax after scrutiny of finances https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/21046397/chancellor-nadhim-zahawi-tax/

    Nadhim Zahawi is fortunate. He just has to pay several million in tax.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SunPolitics: Nadhim Zahawi agrees to pay several million in tax after scrutiny of finances https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/21046397/chancellor-nadhim-zahawi-tax/

    Lucky he isn’t still Chancellor, then
    Sadly still an MP
  • Options
    DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited January 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @JournoStephen: RT @Gaylussite: Tory MPs sowing: Haha fuck yeah!!! Yes!!

    Tory MPs reaping: Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck. https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1614185439224537089

    Note 60% of 35 to 44 year olds still own their own home, even in 2015 and 2019 when they won a majority the Tories lost under 35s

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1614187950966988803?s=20&t=Oy-r_4pjY__89WX6koOsew
    How many 35yos with massive mortgages are thinking "F*** everyone else - I'm all right, Jack. I'm so all right, Jack, that I don't need any government protection paid for by taxing highly successful and secure people like me, because most government spending goes on lazy prole failures who rent their homes" - i.e. the traditional reason since the 1970s for voting Tory among those who might possibly conceivably consider voting Labour, or whose parents did?

    The Tories will win the next election, but that won't be the basis. It will be racism and xenophobia - "immigration".
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @haynesdeborah: BREAKING: The UK will send a squadron of 14 tanks to Ukraine “in the coming weeks”. @RishiSunak’s government says i… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614392345826557952
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    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SunPolitics: Nadhim Zahawi agrees to pay several million in tax after scrutiny of finances https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/21046397/chancellor-nadhim-zahawi-tax/

    Nadhim Zahawi is fortunate. He just has to pay several million in tax.
    "Chicken-feed!" - Boris.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,897
    Tres said:
    You might expect a demand from the Home Office to take down a video for misrepresentation of the Home Secretary to be truthful. It says Braverman thanked the holocaust survivor for sharing her story and expressed her sympathy when she did neither of those things.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @jimwaterson: Boris Johnson secretly arranged an £800k credit facility with a Canadian businessman while in Downing Street and th… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614393521003237377
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,707
    Scott_xP said:
    Oh look, the Murdoch press out to stop Boris coming back any way they can again.

    Rattled.
  • Options
    DJ41 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @JournoStephen: RT @Gaylussite: Tory MPs sowing: Haha fuck yeah!!! Yes!!

    Tory MPs reaping: Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck. https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1614185439224537089

    Note 60% of 35 to 44 year olds still own their own home, even in 2015 and 2019 when they won a majority the Tories lost under 35s

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1614187950966988803?s=20&t=Oy-r_4pjY__89WX6koOsew
    How many 35yos with massive mortgages are thinking "F*** everyone else - I'm all right, Jack. I'm so all right, Jack, that I don't need any government protection paid for by taxing highly successful and secure people like me, because most government spending goes on lazy prole failures who rent their homes" - i.e. the traditional reason since the 1970s for voting Tory among those who might possibly conceivably consider voting Labour, or whose parents did?

    The Tories will win the next election, but that won't be the basis. It will be racism and xenophobia - "immigration".
    They won't, thank God, but what a silly thing to say. If someone asks you: should absolutely everyone from everywhere be allowed into the country for any purpose? you have the choice of saying yes, and ruling yourself out of any claim to rationality, or no. But if you say no, we know that 100% of the people you want to exclude are by definition foreigners, and a clear majority are non caucasian, and we have proved beyond doubt that you are a racist xenophobe.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,345

    Everyone else on strike?

    Just a go slow.
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh look, the Murdoch press out to stop Boris coming back any way they can again.

    Rattled.
    When I am walking round my garden and come across a slug, I stamp on it. does this show I am rattled by it?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @mikeysmith: So Boris took out this new credit facility in December 2020 - the month after he was begging Lord Brownlow to lend… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614399013888921602
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,707

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh look, the Murdoch press out to stop Boris coming back any way they can again.

    Rattled.
    When I am walking round my garden and come across a slug, I stamp on it. does this show I am rattled by it?
    I wouldn't like to think what it shows.
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    Neidle 1 Zahawi 0
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    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,169
    I imagine Owen Jones, Magic Grandpa, Richard Burgon, and Zarah Sultana are amongst the 30% who think Labour have handled the strikes badly.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,694
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Opinium.

    Con 29% (nc)
    Lab 45% (+1)
    Lib Dems 9% (nc)
    Green 5% (nc)
    ReformUK 6% (-2)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1614352485795221504

    Reform, just a flash in the pan?
    Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.

    With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.

    What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.

    But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
    I think the real current vote share is something like:

    Con 32%
    Lab 47%
    Lib 9%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%

    Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
    Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
    I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.

    If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
    Er... the previous two Opiniums had Labour on 44% and 43%, so Labour are actually climbing according to Opinium.
    Yet still not on 47% in any of them and Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019.

    Even the majority for Labour of 82 they forecast tonight is more 2005 than 1997 and a big improvement on the wipeout forecast under Truss. The final Opinium poll under Truss' premiership had Labour on 50% and the Tories on just 23%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    I laughed out loud when reading this post 😆

    “Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019”

    As you know Opinium abandoned that methodology one year ago in favour of swingback methodology, not reporting the actual return from voters - and this swingback puts you blues on dire 29% a huge 16 behind, without hope of swingback closing that, do you still want them to be the most accurate, or wish they are beautiful wildly amazingly wrong? 🤣
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,736

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh look, the Murdoch press out to stop Boris coming back any way they can again.

    Rattled.
    When I am walking round my garden and come across a slug, I stamp on it. does this show I am rattled by it?
    I wouldn't like to think what it shows.
    If you had marigolds in your garden you would know.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Opinium.

    Con 29% (nc)
    Lab 45% (+1)
    Lib Dems 9% (nc)
    Green 5% (nc)
    ReformUK 6% (-2)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1614352485795221504

    Reform, just a flash in the pan?
    Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.

    With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.

    What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.

    But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
    I think the real current vote share is something like:

    Con 32%
    Lab 47%
    Lib 9%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%

    Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
    Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
    I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.

    If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
    Er... the previous two Opiniums had Labour on 44% and 43%, so Labour are actually climbing according to Opinium.
    Yet still not on 47% in any of them and Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019.

    Even the majority for Labour of 82 they forecast tonight is more 2005 than 1997 and a big improvement on the wipeout forecast under Truss. The final Opinium poll under Truss' premiership had Labour on 50% and the Tories on just 23%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    I laughed out loud when reading this post 😆

    “Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019”

    As you know Opinium abandoned that methodology one year ago in favour of swingback methodology, not reporting the actual return from voters - and this swingback puts you blues on dire 29% a huge 16 behind, without hope of swingback closing that, do you still want them to be the most accurate, or wish they are beautiful wildly amazingly wrong? 🤣
    You've heard of Triangulation? What about Trafalgaration?
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    So Zahawi *did* have a tax dispute with HMRC while he was Chancellor.

    What a country.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,324

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh look, the Murdoch press out to stop Boris coming back any way they can again.

    Rattled.
    I think that's a newsworthy story, don't you?
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    Historians will exhaust the dictionary of cloacal synonyms to describe this Tory government.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,694

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Opinium.

    Con 29% (nc)
    Lab 45% (+1)
    Lib Dems 9% (nc)
    Green 5% (nc)
    ReformUK 6% (-2)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1614352485795221504

    Reform, just a flash in the pan?
    Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.

    With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.

    What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.

    But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
    I think the real current vote share is something like:

    Con 32%
    Lab 47%
    Lib 9%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%

    Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
    Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
    I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.

    If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
    Er... the previous two Opiniums had Labour on 44% and 43%, so Labour are actually climbing according to Opinium.
    Yet still not on 47% in any of them and Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019.

    Even the majority for Labour of 82 they forecast tonight is more 2005 than 1997 and a big improvement on the wipeout forecast under Truss. The final Opinium poll under Truss' premiership had Labour on 50% and the Tories on just 23%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    I laughed out loud when reading this post 😆

    “Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019”

    As you know Opinium abandoned that methodology one year ago in favour of swingback methodology, not reporting the actual return from voters - and this swingback puts you blues on dire 29% a huge 16 behind, without hope of swingback closing that, do you still want them to be the most accurate, or wish they are beautiful wildly amazingly wrong? 🤣
    You've heard of Triangulation? What about Trafalgaration?
    No I haven’t heard of Triangulation. Is it one of those day time quiz shows?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,937

    I imagine Owen Jones, Magic Grandpa, Richard Burgon, and Zarah Sultana are amongst the 30% who think Labour have handled the strikes badly.

    SKS fans 17%
  • Options
    Surely more extraordinary if there were allegations that he was not a tosser?
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,275

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Opinium.

    Con 29% (nc)
    Lab 45% (+1)
    Lib Dems 9% (nc)
    Green 5% (nc)
    ReformUK 6% (-2)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1614352485795221504

    Reform, just a flash in the pan?
    Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.

    With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.

    What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.

    But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
    I think the real current vote share is something like:

    Con 32%
    Lab 47%
    Lib 9%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%

    Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
    Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
    I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.

    If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
    Er... the previous two Opiniums had Labour on 44% and 43%, so Labour are actually climbing according to Opinium.
    Yet still not on 47% in any of them and Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019.

    Even the majority for Labour of 82 they forecast tonight is more 2005 than 1997 and a big improvement on the wipeout forecast under Truss. The final Opinium poll under Truss' premiership had Labour on 50% and the Tories on just 23%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    I laughed out loud when reading this post 😆

    “Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019”

    As you know Opinium abandoned that methodology one year ago in favour of swingback methodology, not reporting the actual return from voters - and this swingback puts you blues on dire 29% a huge 16 behind, without hope of swingback closing that, do you still want them to be the most accurate, or wish they are beautiful wildly amazingly wrong? 🤣
    You've heard of Triangulation? What about Trafalgaration?
    No I haven’t heard of Triangulation. Is it one of those day time quiz shows?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangulation_(politics)
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,694

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Opinium.

    Con 29% (nc)
    Lab 45% (+1)
    Lib Dems 9% (nc)
    Green 5% (nc)
    ReformUK 6% (-2)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1614352485795221504

    Reform, just a flash in the pan?
    Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.

    With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.

    What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.

    But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
    I think the real current vote share is something like:

    Con 32%
    Lab 47%
    Lib 9%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%

    Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
    Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
    I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.

    If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
    Er... the previous two Opiniums had Labour on 44% and 43%, so Labour are actually climbing according to Opinium.
    Yet still not on 47% in any of them and Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019.

    Even the majority for Labour of 82 they forecast tonight is more 2005 than 1997 and a big improvement on the wipeout forecast under Truss. The final Opinium poll under Truss' premiership had Labour on 50% and the Tories on just 23%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    I laughed out loud when reading this post 😆

    “Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019”

    As you know Opinium abandoned that methodology one year ago in favour of swingback methodology, not reporting the actual return from voters - and this swingback puts you blues on dire 29% a huge 16 behind, without hope of swingback closing that, do you still want them to be the most accurate, or wish they are beautiful wildly amazingly wrong? 🤣
    And just to be thorough,

    You can’t say “oh only 29% and 16 down… now let’s have some swingback with that.” Without changing methodology “the most accurate pollster” would have given Con 24 or less tonight and over 20 behind!

    The Labour majority of eighty predicted from this includes getting some swing back just to keep it to that, and cannot include the level of Tory hate tactical voting likely to be going on too, boosting Libdem seat quota in places Labour will never win, that doesn’t exist in these seat calculators.

    And the comparison of majority to 2005 of course is rubbish because of the number of Labour seats in Scotland these days compared to 2005, that now technically count on your side (opposition) not in the Labour governments column.

    Oh dear. Dear oh dear.
  • Options
    Hey @MoonRabbit how you?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,694
    edited January 2023
    Tres said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Opinium.

    Con 29% (nc)
    Lab 45% (+1)
    Lib Dems 9% (nc)
    Green 5% (nc)
    ReformUK 6% (-2)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1614352485795221504

    Reform, just a flash in the pan?
    Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.

    With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.

    What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.

    But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
    I think the real current vote share is something like:

    Con 32%
    Lab 47%
    Lib 9%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%

    Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
    Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
    I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.

    If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
    Er... the previous two Opiniums had Labour on 44% and 43%, so Labour are actually climbing according to Opinium.
    Yet still not on 47% in any of them and Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019.

    Even the majority for Labour of 82 they forecast tonight is more 2005 than 1997 and a big improvement on the wipeout forecast under Truss. The final Opinium poll under Truss' premiership had Labour on 50% and the Tories on just 23%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    I laughed out loud when reading this post 😆

    “Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019”

    As you know Opinium abandoned that methodology one year ago in favour of swingback methodology, not reporting the actual return from voters - and this swingback puts you blues on dire 29% a huge 16 behind, without hope of swingback closing that, do you still want them to be the most accurate, or wish they are beautiful wildly amazingly wrong? 🤣
    You've heard of Triangulation? What about Trafalgaration?
    No I haven’t heard of Triangulation. Is it one of those day time quiz shows?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangulation_(politics)
    Thank you. 😌

    That wiki link is junk. Clinton? Otto, Prince of Bismarck, Count of Bismarck-Schönhausen, Duke of Lauenburg was doing this in the nineteenth century. So really it should be called die österreichischen Schulwirtschaftsideen des Sozialstaats übernehmen, um die Sozialisten ordentlich zu ficken, and not triangulation.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,694

    Hey @MoonRabbit how you?

    Very well thank you. On holiday in Yorkshire, taking a break from everything, helping with the sheep. GF in London back at work, slaving away in front of computer screen spreadsheets.

    I really want to take a piglet back to London, and call it our commitment animal. I’m sure I would be able to housetrain it.

    We don’t have any, but I held some the other day. I ❤️ little piggies.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,255
    I still think the government after the next election will be a Lab/LD coalition.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,707
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh look, the Murdoch press out to stop Boris coming back any way they can again.

    Rattled.
    I think that's a newsworthy story, don't you?
    Newsworthy perhaps, front page no. I think it's yet another anti-Boris briefing by Sunak's team. It's pretty pathetic, and I don't think it'll work, nor will the rather silly peace offering of a chicken run to try and avoid the impending electoral calamity that Sunak is going to wreak. Boris will fancy his chances both at saving his own seat, and at saving the Government from defeat.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,707

    Hey @MoonRabbit how you?

    Very well thank you. On holiday in Yorkshire, taking a break from everything, helping with the sheep. GF in London back at work, slaving away in front of computer screen spreadsheets.

    I really want to take a piglet back to London, and call it our commitment animal. I’m sure I would be able to housetrain it.

    We don’t have any, but I held some the other day. I ❤️ little piggies.
    They're also delicious.
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    DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited January 2023
    Russian forces have been shelling Dnipro, the city located on a major bend of the Dnieper river and which used to be called Dnepropetrovsk. It is Kiev's 4th city by population, having roughly the same population size (~1m) as 3rd-placed Odessa. (Ukraine's 2nd city by population is Kharkiv.)

    Dnipro is where Ihor Kolomoisky was born. He is the oligarch who propelled Volodymyr Zelensky to office, as owner of the companies that produced the TV comedy series Servant of the People (about an ordinary guy who becomes the president) and then created the political party of the same name (the vehicle for Zelensky's successful run for the presidency when he was the actor who was playing the said ordinary guy in the TV series - like a cross between Paul Eddington in Yes Minister and Robbie Coltrane in The Pope Must Die).

    But Ukraine is no longer in peak Kolomoisky. He fell from grace, was stripped of his Ukrainian citizenship (although he has at least two others - Cypriot and Israeli), and is now wanted by the US FBI and other law enforcement. His current whereabouts are unknown.

    I doubt he will be making any public statements any time soon, but if the shelling continues in Dnipro he will presumably be in a lot of minds as the recently Mr Very Big from that city who was also one of the top oligarchs in the country.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/who-is-ihor-kolomoisky/

    "Kolomoisky once lined the lobby of a Russian oil company he wanted to push out with a series of coffins. For the full Bond villain effect, he even maintained a shark tank in his office, which he would fill with bloody chum whenever he wanted to intimidate a visitor."

    Kolomoisky was also a major backer of the Jewish community centre in Dnipro, which maybe wouldn't be so interesting in itself but the centre is symbolically highly significant, being according to some accounts the largest in the world and architecturally it's very striking and very Jewish - it's shaped like, as well as named after, a menorah candelabrum, and has 7 marble towers with the middle one 20 storeys tall.

    Since it's surely in the Russian side's interests to divide its adversary's ranks, the centre may become a target.
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    DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    Andy_JS said:

    I still think the government after the next election will be a Lab/LD coalition.

    If they had the power in a hung parliament would the LDs dare to bring down a minority Labour government by voting against the king's speech?
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    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,722
    DJ41 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I still think the government after the next election will be a Lab/LD coalition.

    If they had the power in a hung parliament would the LDs dare to bring down a minority Labour government by voting against the king's speech?
    DJ41 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I still think the government after the next election will be a Lab/LD coalition.

    If they had the power in a hung parliament would the LDs dare to bring down a minority Labour government by voting against the king's speech?
    Presumably a minority Labour Government would consult the Lib Dems beforehand, and would bring forward only those of their policies that the Lib Dems would be able to support.

    From what I have read about Starmer's programme so far, though, there does not seem to be much that would be controversial.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162
    DougSeal said:

    Tried the Prince Harry trick of putting Elizabeth Arden cream on the Old Man this evening. Has changed my life!

    so long as you aren’t trying his other tricks based on the chatter in California at the moment


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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,437
    ClippP said:

    DJ41 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I still think the government after the next election will be a Lab/LD coalition.

    If they had the power in a hung parliament would the LDs dare to bring down a minority Labour government by voting against the king's speech?
    DJ41 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I still think the government after the next election will be a Lab/LD coalition.

    If they had the power in a hung parliament would the LDs dare to bring down a minority Labour government by voting against the king's speech?
    Presumably a minority Labour Government would consult the Lib Dems beforehand, and would bring forward only those of their policies that the Lib Dems would be able to support.

    From what I have read about Starmer's programme so far, though, there does not seem to be much that would be controversial.
    having seen what happened to LD seats in 2015 after what was a pretty successful attempt at coalition I imagine there will be some LD nervousness about backing another govt again.... tbh they still havent recovered from that electoral hammering
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,179
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh look, the Murdoch press out to stop Boris coming back any way they can again.

    Rattled.
    I think that's a newsworthy story, don't you?
    It's positively Trumpian how some Boris fans interpret any news of his misdeeds as an establishment plot. Not to mention the fact that the collapse in Tory ratings happened under Boris and Truss.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,694

    Hey @MoonRabbit how you?

    Very well thank you. On holiday in Yorkshire, taking a break from everything, helping with the sheep. GF in London back at work, slaving away in front of computer screen spreadsheets.

    I really want to take a piglet back to London, and call it our commitment animal. I’m sure I would be able to housetrain it.

    We don’t have any, but I held some the other day. I ❤️ little piggies.
    They're also delicious.
    Deliciously cute and snuggly!

    https://bhamnow.com/2020/09/10/oink-7-things-we-learned-about-owning-mini-pigs-in-birmingham/
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    New thread.
This discussion has been closed.