If it's necessary to weight so much by age (a 22-year old man polled counts thirteen times as much as a 62-year old one) what else is it necessary to weight a lot by? Location (urban vs suburban vs rural)? Religion? Height? Self-image? No wonder polls bounce around so much.
I propose a 50% tax (to be paid by the commissioner) on any poll with a sample size of under, say, 5,000...
Given the importance of the Middle England Towns and Their Hinterlands to the election result it is a concern to me that there is no weighting applied on a city/town/village basis.
I think the Ashcroft polls ask people if they live in a settlement with more than 10,000 inhabitants, or a village, hamlet, or isolated dwelling, but he has his subdivisions in the wrong place. To identify the METTHs one wants to look at settlements with a population between 10,000-100,000, and probably the best way to do this is with postal codes, rather than asking people what the population of their town is.
However, this doesn't make the YouGov poll useless. Because it polls too many older people the subsamples for those age groups are probably more reliable. Those aged 40+ have Labour and Conservatives level-pegging.
The Conservatives actually have a lead in the next age group down, the 25-39 year olds**, which are weighted up only slightly, and the derided 18-24 year old subsample gives a whopping Labour lead of 53:12.
In other words, a freakish sample of 18-24 year olds, absurdly weighted up from 39 respondents to 164, is the part of the poll that retains Labour's lead. A larger sample of 18-24 year olds would most likely have given a result closer to previous polls in that subsample, and the headline numbers would possibly show a Conservative lead.
It's the Tory cheerleaders who should be pointing at the 18-24 age group, gleefully shouting "rogue poll!" and pointing out that upweighting that age group by a factor of about five and a half compared to the 60+ age group is the main thing that prevents this YouGov from showing a Tory lead.
** And this is the really unusual part of this poll, because that age group has tended to be the most pro-Labour age group in recent years.
IMO, one should never get too worked up about sub-samples. On their own, they're often highly inaccurate, but they can be weighted up or down as necessary.
I'm confused .... is the 0.7% reported on PB the Labour lead in the latest poll ?!?
Tick tock Ed .... tick tock ....
Can we expect some movement from your ARSE ?
It's seems likely, although I wouldn't want to pre-empt my august organ. More recently the movement has been an uptick of Labour seats. The last ARSE 2015 GE prediction was :
Con 296 .. Lab 283 .. LibDem 37
The next ARSE will be published next Tuesday, 4th Feb.
What is this poll based on?
Are you seriously indicating that you're unfamiliar with my ARSE
Incredible !!!!!!!!
I have seen it on here - I merely asked how it was formulated.
China is the really tricky one. It is by far the largest bubble in the history of mankind. Can the Communist state really let the gas out without a bang?
Has any bubble, ever, been slowly deflated, or is the definition of a bubble only made once it has gone pop?
Could anyone point to a historical example where a soft-landing was achieved?
Well the UK 2007 - 2013 is a possible example. By use of massive injections of credit and running a huge deficit the government has managed to keep the damage to the real economy extremely modest compared with what "ought" to have happened given the massive drop in GDP.
Such interventions have their own price of course and are the main reason the recovery so far has been quite modest.
But the bubble in China is like Gordon Brown on stilts. It will take incredible skill.
The Chinese bubble is nothing like Brown's boom - which was based on property prices, financial taxes, and consumer debt.
Yes the Chinese have a housing boom - and debt - but they ALSO have enormous forex reserves ($3.3trn, about the size of the entire German economy), plus a massive trade surplus. Indeed they recently became the world's largest trading nation, supplanting America as number 1 for the first time in maybe a century.
China is not a house built on sand. It's a massive, very successful, rapidly industrialising economy with still more potential - though it is prone to the volatility of all huge countries that grow quickly.
China's remarkable achievement over the last 20 years has been not only to grow so rapidly but to avoid that volitility that you talk of. I do not believe it can last and that a price will be paid for smoothing over the problems in recent years.
Their capital reserves are indeed a source of comfort to them and I would long term be an optimist for China. I just think that they are well overdue a bump on the way. If it is this year RCS will be proved right. I think it is a good bet, pretty close to evens.
We really need these growth figures to start feeding through to the real world. The US has seen growth for quarter on quarter but it has made little difference to most people, except those at the very top, who are enjoying unprecedented good times. If there is no general upswing in living standards, then at some stage crisis will ensue and we'll all be affected.
snip.
It really must be only middle class lefty luvvies that think in this anti "old money" way, so patronising of the working class
Quite and nothing so infuriates a middle class lefty than to have one of their hitherto protege salt-of-the-earth types actually make good.
That is total and utter rubbish.
Picking through your argument I would only point out that you (if you are a lefty) are your own worst enemy.
Left arguments can seem for all the world like class war. The "rich", the "military-industrial complex" (oh yes), etc... I know it is a low blow but pop over to Polly or Seumas' latest article and you will see that this is precisely the language they use. Inflammatory, spiteful, patronising.
In their world the idea of someone making the transition from "honest worker" (whom they can patronise) to "rich toff" is the most treacherous of crimes.
Often with Yougov if you respond quickly you get a poll for yougov points - if you respond later it's a "prize draw" poll - I have quit out of polls early on a couple occasions and when I return it is a draw only poll.
They may factor in for "fast responders" - who may have more time or be online more..
Has been a few years since YouGov polled me for a VI poll.
They only ask me to contribute to polling on race or religion these days, or their sodding BrandIndex polls that go on forever.
Edit: I was yougov'd recently on what I thought about the Times/Sunday Times.
Which of these brands have you ever heard of Which of these brands have you heard of in the last 3 months Which of these brands have you ever used Which of these brands have you used in the last 3 months Which of these brands have you ever heard something positive about Which of these brands have you heard something positive about in the last 3 months Which of these brands AGGGGGH MAKE IT STOP!
I once got asked what I thought about Twix. I gently put the phone down at that stage.
So, how does GDP Q1 0.4%, Q2 0.7%, Q3 0.8% and Q4 0.7% only total 1.9% year on year. Genuine question.
It's a comparison of total 2012 vs total 2013. So the growth rate in Q4 2012 (negative) has more impact on the annual figure than this latest 0.7%.
Q4 2013 is 2.8% bigger than Q4 2012 however, and the strong growth in 2nd half of this year means 2014 will have a good headline annual figure, even if next year's quarterly rates are pretty ordinary.
China is the really tricky one. It is by far the largest bubble in the history of mankind. Can the Communist state really let the gas out without a bang?
Has any bubble, ever, been slowly deflated, or is the definition of a bubble only made once it has gone pop?
Could anyone point to a historical example where a soft-landing was achieved?
FWIW the economic consensus for Chinese GDP growth this year is about 7-7.5%
"Still, most economists expect China's growth to remain relatively robust at 7.4 percent for the full year, compared with 7.7 percent in 2013, according to a recent Reuters poll."
With the US, UK, and even EU and Japanese economies now picking up steam, and sucking in goods, it is hard to see export and trade oriented China suddenly crashing to 5% growth (which would be the slowest they've experienced in several decades)
Smithson Junior's wager is, shall we say, not inaudacious.
And the economic forecasts for the UK in 2006/7 were pretty confident too.
One of the things we have learned from this downturn is that things that ought to be impossible can last a lot longer than one might expect. The Chinese bubble is one of them. Their fixed capital investment is totally absurd, a misallocation of scarce resources on an unimaginable scale .
The bubble should have burst years ago but the authorities were too scared of the political implications to let it. So they let the shadow banking and local authorities run riot.
Will this be the year? Why not? It will happen. It is the only way that capitalism can ensure that resources are allocated correctly over time.
One of the basic rules of investing is that the market can be wrong for longer than your money will last.
We really need these growth figures to start feeding through to the real world. The US has seen growth for quarter on quarter but it has made little difference to most people, except those at the very top, who are enjoying unprecedented good times. If there is no general upswing in living standards, then at some stage crisis will ensue and we'll all be affected.
I don't think it's quite that dramatic. We are turning the tanker around. It's far easier and takes much less time to borrow excessively than to pay off your borrowing. There will be a trickle down effect.
There is a common left meme (which I am not saying you adopt) which has it the "the Rich" are sitting in volcanoes stroking their Persian Blue cats wondering how next to oppress the masses. They really aren't. They are working as hard as they can to make themselves and their families better off.
The same reasoning would have it that everyone in Britain should be taxed at 99% because there are still billions elsewhere of people earning less than $2/day.
It really must be only middle class lefty luvvies that think in this anti "old money" way, so patronising of the working class
Quite and nothing so infuriates a middle class lefty than to have one of their hitherto protege salt-of-the-earth types actually make good.
Very astute observation. Well said.
It was not well-said at all, it was nasty misanthropic rubbish and not becoming of that poster who is usually fair and intelligent. It was also a particularly ignorant comment because many "middle class lefties" as he so snottily calls them are former "working class lefties" who have done well.
I think this forum suffers when it moves from political debate to prejudice, but I will say nothing more on the matter today.
Their capital reserves are indeed a source of comfort to them and I would long term be an optimist for China. I just think that they are well overdue a bump on the way. If it is this year RCS will be proved right. I think it is a good bet, pretty close to evens.
The implication of my example on quarterly growth figures vs annual growth figures is that some of the data that determines the Chinese growth rate in 2014 is already known. This is why rcs1000 wanted to bet on the 4Q2014 year-on-year figure instead of the annual figure.
I noticed down the thread that the fact the Tory Party was in the lead in the unweighted sample but Labour was 2% in front of the weights sample, caused a bit of a stir.
Then again if you look at the figures (unweighted)
Voted in 2010
Tory 511 Lab 269
Now voter preference
Tory 407 Lab 328
No wonder the unweighted showed the Tory Party in front, there was nearly twice as many Tory voters from the 2010 election than Labour ones.
*** Goalposts at the ready for tonights excitement ***
I predict a squirrel of a poll where it is completely ignored by the vast majority on here.
China is the really tricky one. It is by far the largest bubble in the history of mankind. Can the Communist state really let the gas out without a bang?
Has any bubble, ever, been slowly deflated, or is the definition of a bubble only made once it has gone pop?
Could anyone point to a historical example where a soft-landing was achieved?
Indeed. Worryingly, the UK economy is starting to look distinctly bubbly. A finance bubble at that, which is exactly what caused our problems in the first place.
If Labour win the next election and it goes pop on their watch - again - they could be out of power for decades.
I can understand why Osborne went down this route. His plan A was clearly never going to work after years of failure. He needed some growth, any growth, to suit the political timetable.
But at some point someone is going to have to grasp the nettle and rebalance our economy, put it on a long term sustainable footing.
So, how does GDP Q1 0.4%, Q2 0.7%, Q3 0.8% and Q4 0.7% only total 1.9% year on year. Genuine question.
It's a comparison of total 2012 vs total 2013. So the growth rate in Q4 2012 (negative) has more impact on the annual figure than this latest 0.7%.
Q4 2013 is 2.8% bigger than Q4 2012 however, and the strong growth in 2nd half of this year means 2014 will have a good headline annual figure, even if next year's quarterly rates are pretty ordinary.
Thanks
It is not easy to get your head around.
The way I finally got it was that if you have a year of zero growth (pretty much like 2012) and then another year with growth of 1% a quarter then growth in that year is (1+2+3+4)/4 =2.5%. The following year, if growth continues at 1% a quarter it is (1+3+5+7)/4 = 4%. The figures of 3, 5 and 7 reflect the fact that the base is increased by the quarterly growth in the preceding year.
No doubt someone will now explain I have still got this wrong but this seems to work. So growth of 0.8, 0.8 and 0.7 in the last 3 quarters will make the annual growth figures look better this year.
I am not ideologically opposed to a 50% rate - indeed I strongly supported my own party's backing for it in the early/mid 2000's when the economy and house prices were clearly overheating. However now is most definitely not the time to reintroduce such a rate and for me and I hope most Lib Dems economic considerations should always outweigh the political. Of course it is popular but as Vince says the economy needs to be rebuilt on more than just shifting sand. we need enterprising and skilled people to be attracted to this country. Increases in tax rates should be focused on wealth not income in the post crash world. .
Mr. Hugh, I am afraid to say you're being a silly sausage.
Osborne was consistently criticised by Balls, who called for plan B. There was no plan B. To suggest Osborne diverted from his course is just wrong.
On Balls: I saw a little of his 'interview' (it was hardly tough) with Murnaghan[sp] on Sky earlier this morning. He had the gall to complain about the size of the deficit the next government would inherit.
I'm also slightly surprised (I know I shouldn't be, but there we are) nobody's asking Labour how they'd pay for the 10p tax band. It must cost a bloody fortune.
I noticed down the thread that the fact the Tory Party was in the lead in the unweighted sample but Labour was 2% in front of the weights sample, caused a bit of a stir.
Then again if you look at the figures (unweighted)
Voted in 2010
Tory 511 Lab 269
Now voter preference
Tory 407 Lab 328
No wonder the unweighted showed the Tory Party in front, there was nearly twice as many Tory voters from the 2010 election than Labour ones.
*** Goalposts at the ready for tonights excitement ***
I predict a squirrel of a poll where it is completely ignored by the vast majority on here.
Let's hope so, last nights squirmig and passive aggressive subject changing was embarrassing
@Topping - The rich are not wicked, but sometimes they are blind. A society in which most people's living standards just stagnate or decline is not a sustainable one. I am a top rate taxpayer and for me the last two or three years have been great - property prices rising, pension pot increasing, income and dividend tax rates falling; but I am probably 5% of the population, if that. The country cannot - and should not - be run for my benefit. If it is, in the end the 95% will say "no more" and that will be that.
The rich are no more wicked or blind than the poor, or middle classes. They are traits that can be seen throughout society.
I am not a higher-rate taxpayer, but I can see why people who generate jobs and wealth to this country need rewarding. When we mention 'the rich', we automatically think of the fat-cat bankers who make and lose obscene amounts daily by exchanging electronic digits between each other.
What we don't tend to see are people like you. In so many cases, people who have mortgaged or remortgaged their houses, put their capital at risk, and employed people, all to the country's benefit. People who take such risks, and employ people and maybe even export, deserve rewarding IMHO. especially when the money they earn might be ploughed back into their business, or into new businesses.
Hurting them hurts the country disproportionately. Perhaps you are just lucky in your choice of business.
Josias - top rate tax payers are not hurting, they are thriving. In fact, it's hard to think of a time when things have been so good: the markets have been great, so boosting pension pots; income and dividend tax has been cut; interest rates are rock bottom; property prices are booming. For business, the key issue is the corporation tax rate. If that were to rise, it would be very bad news; and the government has been absolutely right to prioritise cutting it. But a 50 pence tax rate really should be neither here nor there for those taking a proper look around them at the sacrifices people with much lower incomes are continually being forced to make. It's depressing - and, in my view, very short-sighted - for people to threaten all kinds of things for what in the end will make almost no difference at all to them.
China is the really tricky one. It is by far the largest bubble in the history of mankind. Can the Communist state really let the gas out without a bang?
Has any bubble, ever, been slowly deflated, or is the definition of a bubble only made once it has gone pop?
Could anyone point to a historical example where a soft-landing was achieved?
Indeed. Worryingly, the UK economy is starting to look distinctly bubbly. A finance bubble at that, which is exactly what caused our problems in the first place.
If Labour win the next election and it goes pop on their watch - again - they could be out of power for decades.
I can understand why Osborne went down this route. His plan A was clearly never going to work after years of failure. He needed some growth, any growth, to suit the political timetable.
But at some point someone is going to have to grasp the nettle and rebalance our economy, put it on a long term sustainable footing.
So construction down, production/manufacturing up (with oil and gas down) and services up is a bubble now? If it was a real bubble services growth would be powering ahead at 1% per quarter and construction by 2-3% per quarter. If anything this reinforces that there is a broad based recovery underway, but it now needs support from private investment and trade rather than domestic demand.
I noticed down the thread that the fact the Tory Party was in the lead in the unweighted sample but Labour was 2% in front of the weights sample, caused a bit of a stir.
Then again if you look at the figures (unweighted)
Voted in 2010
Tory 511 Lab 269
Now voter preference
Tory 407 Lab 328
No wonder the unweighted showed the Tory Party in front, there was nearly twice as many Tory voters from the 2010 election than Labour ones.
*** Goalposts at the ready for tonights excitement ***
I predict a squirrel of a poll where it is completely ignored by the vast majority on here.
Your back must be aching, I thought you'd be able to put them down last night !
Some astonishing stats for China-skeptics. China produces 90% of the world's personal computers, 80% of the world's air conditioners, 63% of all the shoes on the planet, and 50% of the world's PORK.
Nice GDP number. Clearly good progress is now being made to fix Labour's Depression.
People would be mad to let Labour anywhere near the economy in 2015, just as things are coming good.
Time For A Change Vs Don't Let Labour Wreck It.
I know where my cross will be going.
The people agree with you
Some 39 per cent of people agreed with the statement that their family’s finances would be better off with David Cameron and George Osborne than with Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. But only 28 per cent agreed when the statement was reversed to say that their family’s finances would be better off with the Labour leader and Shadow Chancellor.
and
Only 29 per cent believe Mr Balls would make a better chancellor than Mr Osborne, while 47 per cent disagree with this statement. Almost one in four people (23 per cent) who voted Labour in 2010 do not think Mr Balls would do a better job than Mr Osborne.
Three in ten people (30 per cent) say they would be more likely to vote Labour if Mr Balls were replaced as Shadow Chancellor.
I'm confused .... is the 0.7% reported on PB the Labour lead in the latest poll ?!?
Tick tock Ed .... tick tock ....
Can we expect some movement from your ARSE ?
It's seems likely, although I wouldn't want to pre-empt my august organ. More recently the movement has been an uptick of Labour seats. The last ARSE 2015 GE prediction was :
Con 296 .. Lab 283 .. LibDem 37
The next ARSE will be published next Tuesday, 4th Feb.
What is this poll based on?
Are you seriously indicating that you're unfamiliar with my ARSE
Incredible !!!!!!!!
I have seen it on here - I merely asked how it was formulated.
I certainly admire your front !! .... Attempting to entice me in a calm and measured fashion to reveal all for free.
Many others have offered all kinds of nefarious inducements and enticements, among them :
Mike Smithson offered his 1990's powdered wig. Various MODERATORS offered a free pass to use the "golly" word for one night only. John O tendered a used railway ticket to Bournmouth. Mark Senior promised his 1987 collection of Worthing Focus Leaflets. Mike put forward the 2010 Ukip manifesto bound in leather. tim offered to come back SeanT would loan me his Thai Address book with hooker star ratings
How is my ARSE formulated you ask ....
Quite brilliantly is my answer and with much modesty !!
Worryingly, the UK economy is starting to look distinctly bubbly
Those who think the property market is overvalued really should talk to those clever emerging markets people who have bought into it.
I'm sure they are cock a hoop with their investment - capital appreciation, potential rental income, and a huge currency appreciation against just about every other bunce under the sun.
You're not worried about the economy being bubbly, you're worried about it being successful.
F1: it's a shame that the nicest looking car so far (Mercedes) has just smashed into the barriers. Apparently it was a failure of the vehicle rather than driver (Hamilton).
F1: it's a shame that the nicest looking car so far (Mercedes) has just smashed into the barriers. Apparently it was a failure of the vehicle rather than driver (Hamilton).
Quite - at least they've got decent running in beforehand, unlike everyone else bar Torro Rosso, as that now looks like day over.
I'm confused .... is the 0.7% reported on PB the Labour lead in the latest poll ?!?
Tick tock Ed .... tick tock ....
Can we expect some movement from your ARSE ?
It's seems likely, although I wouldn't want to pre-empt my august organ. More recently the movement has been an uptick of Labour seats. The last ARSE 2015 GE prediction was :
Con 296 .. Lab 283 .. LibDem 37
The next ARSE will be published next Tuesday, 4th Feb.
What is this poll based on?
Are you seriously indicating that you're unfamiliar with my ARSE
Incredible !!!!!!!!
I have seen it on here - I merely asked how it was formulated.
I certainly admire your front !! .... Attempting to entice me in a calm and measured fashion to reveal all for free.
Many others have offered all kinds of nefarious inducements and enticements, among them :
Mike Smithson offered his 1990's powdered wig. Various MODERATORS offered a free pass to use the "golly" word for one night only. John O tendered a used railway ticket to Bournmouth. Mark Senior promised his 1987 collection of Worthing Focus Leaflets. Mike put forward the 2010 Ukip manifesto bound in leather. tim offered to come back SeanT would loan me his Thai Address book with hooker star ratings
How is my ARSE formulated you ask ....
Quite brilliantly is my answer and with much modesty !!
Thanks. But I was actually asking a serious question as to where the numbers you publish are derived from.
15-20 I think, but I doubt many will be doing more than that today, and the last lap before the wing failure was finally in to respectable lapping pace, which no one else has attempted yet.
I wouldn't read anything at all into the times, to be honest. Fuel load, fuel mixture (given the interesting rule Mr. Jessop cited below this will cause huge variance), tyre compound, all can cause very significant divergence of times.
The only mitigating factor is the fuel tank's down from 160kg to 100kg, which means fuel load variance will be much less than last year.
Oh, and, of course, engines. Last year they were basically identical. This year the Mercedes is rumoured to clobber its opponents on pure power terms.
I wouldn't read anything at all into the times, to be honest. Fuel load, fuel mixture (given the interesting rule Mr. Jessop cited below this will cause huge variance), tyre compound, all can cause very significant divergence of times.
The only mitigating factor is the fuel tank's down from 160kg to 100kg, which means fuel load variance will be much less than last year.
Oh, and, of course, engines. Last year they were basically identical. This year the Mercedes is rumoured to clobber its opponents on pure power terms.
Will differential front end grip be crucial this year?
Osborne's Plan B looks remarkably similar to Brown's Plan A.
That is for "Business services and finance" it isn't just financial services. A lot of non-financial B2B services are included in that, one of the fastest growing sectors in the UK, cloud computing, is included there.
It's not possible to get an accurate picture of how specific sectors are doing in this country when unrelated stuff is lumped together. Creative industries are lumped into same column as government services for example, which is of no use to anyone. The ONS do not produce detailed enough statistics to conclude that there is a financial services bubble. If anything with all of the news from the City looking pretty grim, one would surmise that it's not really much of anything there. Pay growth is down, employment is stagnant, profits are down, interbank interest rates are up, hardly signs that there is a City bubble.
China is the really tricky one. It is by far the largest bubble in the history of mankind. Can the Communist state really let the gas out without a bang?
Has any bubble, ever, been slowly deflated, or is the definition of a bubble only made once it has gone pop?
Could anyone point to a historical example where a soft-landing was achieved?
Indeed. Worryingly, the UK economy is starting to look distinctly bubbly. A finance bubble at that, which is exactly what caused our problems in the first place.
If Labour win the next election and it goes pop on their watch - again - they could be out of power for decades.
I can understand why Osborne went down this route. His plan A was clearly never going to work after years of failure. He needed some growth, any growth, to suit the political timetable.
But at some point someone is going to have to grasp the nettle and rebalance our economy, put it on a long term sustainable footing.
Hugh
Can you point me to where credit finance in UK is looking "distinctly bubbly"?
I have been checking figures from both the ONS and BoE and they are all pointing to the government, corporate sector and households deleveraging.
@Topping - The rich are not wicked, but sometimes they are blind. A society in which most people's living standards just stagnate or decline is not a sustainable one. I am a top rate taxpayer and for me the last two or three years have been great - property prices rising, pension pot increasing, income and dividend tax rates falling; but I am probably 5% of the population, if that. If it is, in the end the 95% will say "no more" and that will be that.
The rich are no more wicked or blind than the poor, or middle classes. They are traits that can be seen throughout society.
I am not a higher-rate taxpayer, but I can see why people who generate jobs and wealth to this country need rewarding. When we mention 'the rich', we automatically think of the fat-cat bankers who make and lose obscene amounts daily by exchanging electronic digits between each other.
What we don't tend to see are people like you. In so many cases, people who have mortgaged or remortgaged their houses, put their capital at risk, and employed people, all to the country's benefit. People who take such risks, and employ people and maybe even export, deserve rewarding IMHO. especially when the money they earn might be ploughed back into their business, or into new businesses.
Hurting them hurts the country disproportionately. Perhaps you are just lucky in your choice of business.
Josias - top rate tax payers are not hurting, they are thriving. In fact, it's hard to think of a time when things have been so good: the markets have been great, so boosting pension pots; income and dividend tax has been cut; interest rates are rock bottom; property prices are booming. For business, the key issue is the corporation tax rate. If that were to rise, it would be very bad news; and the government has been absolutely right to prioritise cutting it. But a 50 pence tax rate really should be neither here nor there for those taking a proper look around them at the sacrifices people with much lower incomes are continually being forced to make. It's depressing - and, in my view, very short-sighted - for people to threaten all kinds of things for what in the end will make almost no difference at all to them.
I don't think the 50p rate is here or there. It's the narrative it creates which will be the interesting element in the run up to GE2015.
As has been pointed out upthread, however, tax, "soak the rich", etc are dangerous memes for Lab to flirt with. It is also a disincentive to the aspirational classes who might be Lab supporters now but don't want a party which will abandon them, not to say brand them as "kleptocrats" (see today's Polly @LastBoyScout) if they succeed.
And that's aside from the economy which Lab are right to avoid like the plague.
China is the really tricky one. It is by far the largest bubble in the history of mankind. Can the Communist state really let the gas out without a bang?
Has any bubble, ever, been slowly deflated, or is the definition of a bubble only made once it has gone pop?
Could anyone point to a historical example where a soft-landing was achieved?
Indeed. Worryingly, the UK economy is starting to look distinctly bubbly. A finance bubble at that, which is exactly what caused our problems in the first place.
If Labour win the next election and it goes pop on their watch - again - they could be out of power for decades.
I can understand why Osborne went down this route. His plan A was clearly never going to work after years of failure. He needed some growth, any growth, to suit the political timetable.
But at some point someone is going to have to grasp the nettle and rebalance our economy, put it on a long term sustainable footing.
Have I missed something?
Jeremy Warner ?
Speaking of the Telegraph - the latest Dan Hodges blog has a snappy title
"No one trusts Labour or likes Ed Miliband. So why the surprise over the party's poll collapse"
If only credit finance in the UK was looking "distinctly bubbly" or frankly even flat. Quarter after quarter the debt is being repaid and total lending to SMEs shrinks.
Osborne was entirely right, if a little slow, to redirect Funding for Lending in that direction. With the train wreck that is RBS providing another £3bn yesterday (approximately £2.4bn of public money by the way) it does not look to me that this is going to be resolved any time soon and it is the biggest drag on growth.
Our SMEs are having to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps with far too little help from the banks.
Quick Question - Does the Oddschecker "Most bet on" always default to show as if the bet was placed on the biggest odds available ?
For instance if one book has a selection at 3-1, and another at 7-2 but all the money is going on the 3-1 due to a condition of the bet would oddschecker show it as if the money is going on the 7-2 still ?
I don't think the 50p rate is here or there. It's the narrative it creates which will be the interesting element in the run up to GE2015.
As has been pointed out upthread, however, tax, "soak the rich", etc are dangerous memes for Lab to flirt with. It is also a disincentive to the aspirational classes who might be Lab supporters now but don't want a party which will abandon them, not to say brand them as "kleptocrats" (see today's Polly @LastBoyScout) if they succeed.
I agree in principle, but there's a little more nuance than that.
I would certainly count myself as part of the aspirational classes. I run what in the US would be called a "tech startup" and have aspirations to make a goodly amount of money from it, thank you very much.
Nonetheless, when Miliband and Balls take aim at the energy firms and the banks, I'm cheering them on all the way - out of pure self-interest. As part of the management team at a SME (50 employees) two years ago, our attempts at recovery were stymied every step of the way by RBS. I don't have too much of that worry right now as the startup is largely bootstrapped, but I wish I didn't have to pay quite so much to heat the sodding office.
This, to me, is the opportunity for Labour, and the danger for the Conservatives. You can support the vast majority of businesses in Britain while soaking the plutocrats; the 50p tax rate is a very clear way of signalling that intention. Defending the bosses of the banks and the energy companies will not be, I would submit, a good policy for anyone at GE2015.
Our heir to the Irish baronetcies of Ballentaylor and Ballylemon may be too busy basking in the glow of the GDP figures to notice this little snippet of information from the markets today.
Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY), recipient of the U.K.’s second-largest bailout, and BNP Paribas have added the most value among the 47 companies in the Stoxx 600 bank gauge since June 2012. Lloyds gained 47.5 billion euros
And all this on top of good news for the banking sector as a whole:
European investors are relying on banks more than ever before to revive earnings and help extend a rally that has lifted stocks 38 percent since June 2012.
All good news for the beleaguered City, corporates looking to banks for increased lending and, above all, the taxpayer and all those looking for the deficit to tumble as George's takes his profits on shares in the Lloyds Banking Group.
I don't think the 50p rate is here or there. It's the narrative it creates which will be the interesting element in the run up to GE2015.
As has been pointed out upthread, however, tax, "soak the rich", etc are dangerous memes for Lab to flirt with. It is also a disincentive to the aspirational classes who might be Lab supporters now but don't want a party which will abandon them, not to say brand them as "kleptocrats" (see today's Polly @LastBoyScout) if they succeed.
I agree in principle, but there's a little more nuance than that.
I would certainly count myself as part of the aspirational classes. I run what in the US would be called a "tech startup" and have aspirations to make a goodly amount of money from it, thank you very much.
Nonetheless, when Miliband and Balls take aim at the energy firms and the banks, I'm cheering them on all the way - out of pure self-interest. As part of the management team at a SME (50 employees) two years ago, our attempts at recovery were stymied every step of the way by RBS. I don't have too much of that worry right now as the startup is largely bootstrapped, but I wish I didn't have to pay quite so much to heat the sodding office.
This, to me, is the opportunity for Labour, and the danger for the Conservatives. You can support the vast majority of businesses in Britain while soaking the plutocrats; the 50p tax rate is a very clear way of signalling that intention. Defending the bosses of the banks and the energy companies will not be, I would submit, a good policy for anyone at GE2015.
Yes it's tricky. And the argument has been rehearsed many times, which of course doesn't mean there is an easy solution.
Banks must rebuild their balance sheets yet lend more. Who can square that circle? It goes beyond partisan politics as the relative merits of an administrative measure to address either issue is complicated.
You want the banks to lend (you!) more and your energy bill to come down. The nation wants to minimise bad debts and ensure the lights remain on.
As far as I can see, there is only one party that is making cheap, populist statements on these issues and for that they lose my respect.
Good luck with your venture.
Remember - despite all the technology and innovation and size of market, you will still need to go out and acquire those revenues with a strong sales effort!!
Osborne on all the preditions balls as got wrong -
George Osborne's joke about Ed Balls' name: "What they really need on the other side of the house is new crystal Balls."
Labour really do need a new shadow chancellor,ed ball is looking a sad figure.
Only if they bring back the postie. He was brilliant.
Nonsense Labour MP's backing him to the hilt... oh.
Greg Hands@GregHands9 mins One of my colleagues counted a total of 40 Labour MPs during Treasury Questions. More than 200 not here. Ironically, Balls will be thankful.
Our heir to the Irish baronetcies of Ballentaylor and Ballylemon may be too busy basking in the glow of the GDP figures to notice this little snippet of information from the markets today.
Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY), recipient of the U.K.’s second-largest bailout, and BNP Paribas have added the most value among the 47 companies in the Stoxx 600 bank gauge since June 2012. Lloyds gained 47.5 billion euros
And all this on top of good news for the banking sector as a whole:
European investors are relying on banks more than ever before to revive earnings and help extend a rally that has lifted stocks 38 percent since June 2012.
All good news for the beleaguered City, corporates looking to banks for increased lending and, above all, the taxpayer and all those looking for the deficit to tumble as George's takes his profits on shares in the Lloyds Banking Group.
But isn't Ed Miliband letting Balls announce the 50p move the equivalent of a chairman giving the manager £30 million to spend in the January transfer window ?
"Few outside the political bubble will have heard of the 69-year-old, but he is one of the most influential figures in the circle of Labour leader Ed Miliband. Graf is helping to reinvigorate the party's grassroots. And he can see something that many voters, even Labour supporters, cannot: Miliband as Prime Minister."
Update from Portsmouth on Radio 5 live: "A senior Liberal Democrat councillor who resigned after her local party refused to strip MP Mike Hancock of his cabinet position says it is "unbearable" to be a woman in the party."
"Ukip are not as they have been described - just a bunch of loons"
The cowardly unnamed Conservative has already started saying he has always held extreme views! Why didnt they chuck him out?!
He must be ok though, because, he married a foreign lady, no hang on he must be a complete nutter because he is religious and doesn't support gay marriage!!
Oh why cant we just put everyone into neat boxes?!
"Ukip are not as they have been described - just a bunch of loons"
The cowardly unnamed Conservative has already started saying he has always held extreme views! Why didnt they chuck him out?!
He must be ok though, because, he married a foreign lady, no hang on he must be a complete nutter because he is religious and doesn't support gay marriage!!
Oh why cant we just put everyone into neat boxes?!
He was so good he didn't win the seat and then wasn't retained for the by election ?
"Ukip are not as they have been described - just a bunch of loons"
The cowardly unnamed Conservative has already started saying he has always held extreme views! Why didnt they chuck him out?!
He must be ok though, because, he married a foreign lady, no hang on he must be a complete nutter because he is religious and doesn't support gay marriage!!
Oh why cant we just put everyone into neat boxes?!
He was so good he didn't win the seat and then wasn't retained for the by election ?
Jog on.
Haha someone jealous because they've lost one of their top boys to UKIP
Our heir to the Irish baronetcies of Ballentaylor and Ballylemon may be too busy basking in the glow of the GDP figures to notice this little snippet of information from the markets today.
Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY), recipient of the U.K.’s second-largest bailout, and BNP Paribas have added the most value among the 47 companies in the Stoxx 600 bank gauge since June 2012. Lloyds gained 47.5 billion euros
And all this on top of good news for the banking sector as a whole:
European investors are relying on banks more than ever before to revive earnings and help extend a rally that has lifted stocks 38 percent since June 2012.
All good news for the beleaguered City, corporates looking to banks for increased lending and, above all, the taxpayer and all those looking for the deficit to tumble as George's takes his profits on shares in the Lloyds Banking Group.
RBS
Royal Ballet School?
Talking of ballet and the RBS I am minded of Darcey Bussell's most famous quote. Talking wistfully of Concorde's demise, she asked:
“Why can it not be run at a loss? The National Ballet is.”
I haven't read the Graf stuff. I merely said that it was an irritating phrase - why use it? That said, I am sure Isam doesn't need me to fight his corner so I'll leave you to it.
I haven't read the Graf stuff. I merely said that it was an irritating phrase - why use it? That said, I am sure Isam doesn't need me to fight his corner so I'll leave you to it.
USA "The perception that the Republican party serves the interests only of the rich underlies all the demographic weaknesses that get discussed in narrower terms.
Hispanics do not vote for the Democrats solely because of immigration. Many of them are poor and lack health insurance, and they hear nothing from the Republicans but a lot from the Democrats about bettering their situation. Young people, too, are economically insecure, especially these days.
If Republicans found a way to apply conservative principles in ways that offered tangible benefits to most voters and then talked about this agenda in those terms, they would improve their standing among all of these groups while also increasing their appeal to white working-class voters."
At least according to Bloomberg. One for the core of PB.
After more than 20 years in the financial-services rat race, Swiss banker Michael Reichstein packed it in and turned to horse racing for a living.
The 46-year old quit his job as a vice president at UBS AG (UBSN)’s private-banking unit in Zurich where he advised wealthy clients in countries from Jordan to Lebanon and in 2011 began offering bets on British horse races. Reichstein said his Gibraltar-based service, which mostly places lay bets -- a wager that a horse won’t win -- is unique.
“Very wealthy private clients like the approach, they say it’s not correlating to anything,” said Reichstein, who wore sports trousers and a hoody during the interview and spends afternoons betting his client’s money on losing horses at popular U.K. racetracks such as Kempton Park or Wolverhampton.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2 mins 9% tell ComRes/ITV News poll that George Osborne has made their family better off. See this & other findings pic.twitter.com/FeFg9pEZ38
Some astonishing stats for China-skeptics. China produces 90% of the world's personal computers, 80% of the world's air conditioners, 63% of all the shoes on the planet, and 50% of the world's PORK.
Over the last 30-ish years the bankstas looted most of the industrial capital in Britain and America and transferred it to the East. While the credit lasted they got fantastically rich paying eastern wages, charging western prices and paying their tax in Monaco but now it's over.
The current *boom* is all the "emerging markets" version of banksta trying to find a place to stash their winnings from the last 30 years before it all goes down.
Comments
Their capital reserves are indeed a source of comfort to them and I would long term be an optimist for China. I just think that they are well overdue a bump on the way. If it is this year RCS will be proved right. I think it is a good bet, pretty close to evens.
I think this forum suffers when it moves from political debate to prejudice, but I will say nothing more on the matter today.
Then again if you look at the figures (unweighted)
Voted in 2010
Tory 511
Lab 269
Now voter preference
Tory 407
Lab 328
No wonder the unweighted showed the Tory Party in front, there was nearly twice as many Tory voters from the 2010 election than Labour ones.
*** Goalposts at the ready for tonights excitement ***
I predict a squirrel of a poll where it is completely ignored by the vast majority on here.
David Smith @dsmitheconomics 2h
Ahead of the GDP figures, we should remember the purchasing managers' surveys point to broadly-based recovery:
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1132e9ba11934548a369f9a4872acb02 …
The way I finally got it was that if you have a year of zero growth (pretty much like 2012) and then another year with growth of 1% a quarter then growth in that year is (1+2+3+4)/4 =2.5%. The following year, if growth continues at 1% a quarter it is (1+3+5+7)/4 = 4%. The figures of 3, 5 and 7 reflect the fact that the base is increased by the quarterly growth in the preceding year.
No doubt someone will now explain I have still got this wrong but this seems to work. So growth of 0.8, 0.8 and 0.7 in the last 3 quarters will make the annual growth figures look better this year.
Osborne was consistently criticised by Balls, who called for plan B. There was no plan B. To suggest Osborne diverted from his course is just wrong.
On Balls: I saw a little of his 'interview' (it was hardly tough) with Murnaghan[sp] on Sky earlier this morning. He had the gall to complain about the size of the deficit the next government would inherit.
I'm also slightly surprised (I know I shouldn't be, but there we are) nobody's asking Labour how they'd pay for the 10p tax band. It must cost a bloody fortune.
People would be mad to let Labour anywhere near the economy in 2015, just as things are coming good.
Time For A Change Vs Don't Let Labour Wreck It.
I know where my cross will be going.
http://www.globalsources.com/NEWS/What-China-makes-10-things-infographic-090213.HTM
Some 39 per cent of people agreed with the statement that their family’s finances would be better off with David Cameron and George Osborne than with Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. But only 28 per cent agreed when the statement was reversed to say that their family’s finances would be better off with the Labour leader and Shadow Chancellor.
and
Only 29 per cent believe Mr Balls would make a better chancellor than Mr Osborne, while 47 per cent disagree with this statement. Almost one in four people (23 per cent) who voted Labour in 2010 do not think Mr Balls would do a better job than Mr Osborne.
Three in ten people (30 per cent) say they would be more likely to vote Labour if Mr Balls were replaced as Shadow Chancellor.
Many others have offered all kinds of nefarious inducements and enticements, among them :
Mike Smithson offered his 1990's powdered wig.
Various MODERATORS offered a free pass to use the "golly" word for one night only.
John O tendered a used railway ticket to Bournmouth.
Mark Senior promised his 1987 collection of Worthing Focus Leaflets.
Mike put forward the 2010 Ukip manifesto bound in leather.
tim offered to come back
SeanT would loan me his Thai Address book with hooker star ratings
How is my ARSE formulated you ask ....
Quite brilliantly is my answer and with much modesty !!
Those who think the property market is overvalued really should talk to those clever emerging markets people who have bought into it.
I'm sure they are cock a hoop with their investment - capital appreciation, potential rental income, and a huge currency appreciation against just about every other bunce under the sun.
You're not worried about the economy being bubbly, you're worried about it being successful.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
the adverts on PB are for his Dirty Rotten Scoundrels show at Aylesbury Waterside theatre!!!
Is this NSA surveillance....
'People would be mad to let Labour anywhere near the economy in 2015, just as things are coming good.'
Agree,it's no time for a novice.
The only mitigating factor is the fuel tank's down from 160kg to 100kg, which means fuel load variance will be much less than last year.
Oh, and, of course, engines. Last year they were basically identical. This year the Mercedes is rumoured to clobber its opponents on pure power terms.
Rear end grip will be harder to come by though.
It's not possible to get an accurate picture of how specific sectors are doing in this country when unrelated stuff is lumped together. Creative industries are lumped into same column as government services for example, which is of no use to anyone. The ONS do not produce detailed enough statistics to conclude that there is a financial services bubble. If anything with all of the news from the City looking pretty grim, one would surmise that it's not really much of anything there. Pay growth is down, employment is stagnant, profits are down, interbank interest rates are up, hardly signs that there is a City bubble.
Can you point me to where credit finance in UK is looking "distinctly bubbly"?
I have been checking figures from both the ONS and BoE and they are all pointing to the government, corporate sector and households deleveraging.
Have I missed something?
As has been pointed out upthread, however, tax, "soak the rich", etc are dangerous memes for Lab to flirt with. It is also a disincentive to the aspirational classes who might be Lab supporters now but don't want a party which will abandon them, not to say brand them as "kleptocrats" (see today's Polly @LastBoyScout) if they succeed.
And that's aside from the economy which Lab are right to avoid like the plague.
Jeremy Warner ?
Speaking of the Telegraph - the latest Dan Hodges blog has a snappy title
"No one trusts Labour or likes Ed Miliband. So why the surprise over the party's poll collapse"
US and British spies 'get personal data from Angry Birds'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-25922569
To stop getting adverts about Rufus Hound, let's all talk about Mamma Mia
http://www.mamma-mia.com/london.asp
Criticism of DH is surprisingly muted today....
I feel like I'm wasting energy quite honestly !
Osborne was entirely right, if a little slow, to redirect Funding for Lending in that direction. With the train wreck that is RBS providing another £3bn yesterday (approximately £2.4bn of public money by the way) it does not look to me that this is going to be resolved any time soon and it is the biggest drag on growth.
Our SMEs are having to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps with far too little help from the banks.
For instance if one book has a selection at 3-1, and another at 7-2 but all the money is going on the 3-1 due to a condition of the bet would oddschecker show it as if the money is going on the 7-2 still ?
I would certainly count myself as part of the aspirational classes. I run what in the US would be called a "tech startup" and have aspirations to make a goodly amount of money from it, thank you very much.
Nonetheless, when Miliband and Balls take aim at the energy firms and the banks, I'm cheering them on all the way - out of pure self-interest. As part of the management team at a SME (50 employees) two years ago, our attempts at recovery were stymied every step of the way by RBS. I don't have too much of that worry right now as the startup is largely bootstrapped, but I wish I didn't have to pay quite so much to heat the sodding office.
This, to me, is the opportunity for Labour, and the danger for the Conservatives. You can support the vast majority of businesses in Britain while soaking the plutocrats; the 50p tax rate is a very clear way of signalling that intention. Defending the bosses of the banks and the energy companies will not be, I would submit, a good policy for anyone at GE2015.
Osborne: "Isn’t it clear that the anti-business Labour party is now the biggest risk to the economic recovery"
Our heir to the Irish baronetcies of Ballentaylor and Ballylemon may be too busy basking in the glow of the GDP figures to notice this little snippet of information from the markets today.
Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY), recipient of the U.K.’s second-largest bailout, and BNP Paribas have added the most value among the 47 companies in the Stoxx 600 bank gauge since June 2012. Lloyds gained 47.5 billion euros
And all this on top of good news for the banking sector as a whole:
European investors are relying on banks more than ever before to revive earnings and help extend a rally that has lifted stocks 38 percent since June 2012.
All good news for the beleaguered City, corporates looking to banks for increased lending and, above all, the taxpayer and all those looking for the deficit to tumble as George's takes his profits on shares in the Lloyds Banking Group.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/10599879/Gordon-Tack-obituary.html
Plus, most crucially, he's got his mojo back.
http://rscca.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/6a00d83451b31c69e2017d3c61f179970c.jpg
Banks must rebuild their balance sheets yet lend more. Who can square that circle? It goes beyond partisan politics as the relative merits of an administrative measure to address either issue is complicated.
You want the banks to lend (you!) more and your energy bill to come down. The nation wants to minimise bad debts and ensure the lights remain on.
As far as I can see, there is only one party that is making cheap, populist statements on these issues and for that they lose my respect.
Good luck with your venture.
Remember - despite all the technology and innovation and size of market, you will still need to go out and acquire those revenues with a strong sales effort!!
Osborne on all the preditions balls as got wrong -
George Osborne's joke about Ed Balls' name: "What they really need on the other side of the house is new crystal Balls."
Labour really do need a new shadow chancellor,ed ball is looking a sad figure.
Greg Hands@GregHands9 mins
One of my colleagues counted a total of 40 Labour MPs during Treasury Questions. More than 200 not here. Ironically, Balls will be thankful.
http://www.conservativehome.com/leftwatch/2014/01/arnie-grafs-visa-status-is-embarrassing-but-the-real-problem-is-hes-no-good-at-his-job.html
Still could go mind :< !
Daily Politics reveal Priti Patel has written to UKBA in regard to Arnie Graf.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/arnie-graf-the-sage-who-can-see-ed-miliband-at-no-10-8930921.html
"Few outside the political bubble will have heard of the 69-year-old, but he is one of the most influential figures in the circle of Labour leader Ed Miliband. Graf is helping to reinvigorate the party's grassroots. And he can see something that many voters, even Labour supporters, cannot: Miliband as Prime Minister."
Tory Candidate and Deputy Chairman of Eastleigh Conservative Association defects to UKIP http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2014/01/tory-candidate-defects-to-ukip/ …
"A senior Liberal Democrat councillor who resigned after her local party refused to strip MP Mike Hancock of his cabinet position says it is "unbearable" to be a woman in the party."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25928434
@DPJHodges @joshuwahwah @JohnRentoul @edballsmp @YouGov Not true. See my earlier Tweet about today's YouGov raw data favouring CON
"Ukip are not as they have been described - just a bunch of loons"
@joshuwahwah @JohnRentoul @edballsmp @YouGov @MSmithsonPB Mike always manages to find an "anomaly" when the poll is bad for Labour...
Hodges revenge ;-)
He must be ok though, because, he married a foreign lady, no hang on he must be a complete nutter because he is religious and doesn't support gay marriage!!
Oh why cant we just put everyone into neat boxes?!
Jog on.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2178002/Ed-Miliband-paces-personal-trainer.html
Talking of ballet and the RBS I am minded of Darcey Bussell's most famous quote. Talking wistfully of Concorde's demise, she asked:
“Why can it not be run at a loss? The National Ballet is.”
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/07/23/article-0-14179869000005DC-799_306x444.jpg
Reminds me of this picture
http://thebackbencher.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/ed-balls.jpg
tom_watson @tom_watson 1m
To the researcher who just caught me reading the "British Revolution 1629-1660" - I apologise for the faulty lock on the lavatory door.
"The perception that the Republican party serves the interests only of the rich underlies all the demographic weaknesses that get discussed in narrower terms.
Hispanics do not vote for the Democrats solely because of immigration. Many of them are poor and lack health insurance, and they hear nothing from the Republicans but a lot from the Democrats about bettering their situation. Young people, too, are economically insecure, especially these days.
If Republicans found a way to apply conservative principles in ways that offered tangible benefits to most voters and then talked about this agenda in those terms, they would improve their standing among all of these groups while also increasing their appeal to white working-class voters."
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/333344/party-s-problem-ramesh-ponnuru/
If anyone's not got a Betfred account yet they are offering a huge 4-1 on Liverpool which you can turn into an instant 1.6* stake with use of Betfair
At least according to Bloomberg. One for the core of PB.
After more than 20 years in the financial-services rat race, Swiss banker Michael Reichstein packed it in and turned to horse racing for a living.
The 46-year old quit his job as a vice president at UBS AG (UBSN)’s private-banking unit in Zurich where he advised wealthy clients in countries from Jordan to Lebanon and in 2011 began offering bets on British horse races. Reichstein said his Gibraltar-based service, which mostly places lay bets -- a wager that a horse won’t win -- is unique.
“Very wealthy private clients like the approach, they say it’s not correlating to anything,” said Reichstein, who wore sports trousers and a hoody during the interview and spends afternoons betting his client’s money on losing horses at popular U.K. racetracks such as Kempton Park or Wolverhampton.
9% tell ComRes/ITV News poll that George Osborne has made their family better off. See this & other findings pic.twitter.com/FeFg9pEZ38
It would be fascinating to look at the risk/return profile on that business. I wonder if its all that different from being a name on Lloyds.
Region A
Supply 90%
Demand 90%
Region B
Supply 10%
Demand 10%
then switch it to
Region A
Supply 10%
Demand 90%
Region B
Supply 90%
Demand 10%
It cannot *possibly* work.
Over the last 30-ish years the bankstas looted most of the industrial capital in Britain and America and transferred it to the East. While the credit lasted they got fantastically rich paying eastern wages, charging western prices and paying their tax in Monaco but now it's over.
The current *boom* is all the "emerging markets" version of banksta trying to find a place to stash their winnings from the last 30 years before it all goes down.